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Post by mickeythemaestro on Apr 21, 2024 21:35:37 GMT
The bookies essentially have this set of results (or similar) at 500/1. Interesting. Blackburn - Coventry (Home win) Hudds - Brum (Away win) Sheff Wed - WBA (Home win) Millwall - Plymouth (Draw) Saints - Stoke (Home win) QPR - Leeds (Away win) Going into the last game the table would be: 17 Blackburn 52 18 Stoke 50 19 QPR 50 20 Sheff Wed 50 21 Plymouth 49 ------------------- 22 Brum 49 23 Hudds 44 (R) To see us down (on GD or worse) it would only need to take the following results on the usually crazy last day: Coventry - QPR (draw or away win) Stoke - Bristol City (away win) Brum - Norwich (draw) Plymouth - Hull (draw or home win) Sunderland - Sheff Wed (draw or away win) Coventry are or will be dead after today. Bristol City have a great record here. Norwich and Hull could potentially be on the beach by then for different reasons and Sunderland have a worse home record than us! Negative and unlikely, absolutely. Certainly not impossible in the daft environment of the Championship. I certainly wouldn't have it at 500/1! I think the only result you'll get right there is us losing to Southampton hence why the 500/1 is realistic. I'm yet to meet a poor bookie 😆 and I think our owners are prime examples 😆
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Post by march4 on Apr 21, 2024 22:16:59 GMT
Bristol are now top of the 6 game form table.
Soton are 6th.
Plymouth, Blackburn and Brum have 7 points from the last 6.
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Post by mickstupp on Apr 21, 2024 22:41:48 GMT
Bristol are now top of the 6 game form table. Soton are 6th. Plymouth, Blackburn and Brum have 7 points from the last 6. We’re doomed. Stick some money on it. You’ll currently get 150-1 on Stoke getting relegated with Bet365.
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Post by apb1 on Apr 21, 2024 22:44:01 GMT
Bristol are now top of the 6 game form table. Soton are 6th. Plymouth, Blackburn and Brum have 7 points from the last 6. We have 9 from 6. I'm fairly confident but interesting the odds have now come in to 150-1 from 500 earlier today. Lots of Stokies taking out insurance bets...
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Post by andystokey on Apr 21, 2024 22:44:27 GMT
Bristol are now top of the 6 game form table. Soton are 6th. Plymouth, Blackburn and Brum have 7 points from the last 6. We’re doomed. Stick some money on it. You’ll currently get 150-1 on Stoke getting relegated with Bet365. I got 500-1 a couple of hours ago, all the knicker wetters lumping it on 😀
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Post by lawrieleslie on Apr 22, 2024 6:57:41 GMT
We’re doomed. Stick some money on it. You’ll currently get 150-1 on Stoke getting relegated with Bet365. I got 500-1 a couple of hours ago, all the knicker wetters lumping it on 😀 That’s why it’s down to 150/1.
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Post by hotterpotter on Apr 22, 2024 7:00:12 GMT
"He's behind you!"
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Post by scfc5 on Apr 22, 2024 7:10:49 GMT
Best outcome is Huddersfield beating Birmingham and it’s all sorted. No way Hudds are overturning the goal difference and Brum couldn’t catch us. It’s must-win for Hudds really and I fancy them to do it.
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Post by lancashirelad on Apr 22, 2024 7:13:54 GMT
Only two matches/results next saturday matter to Stoke.
Stoke's obviously and Sheff Wed v WBA, A win for WBA means several teams can relax in the last game of the season.
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Post by Ron on Apr 22, 2024 7:36:01 GMT
My big worry is that they were celebrating with silly dances yesterday like it was job done. We go into Bristol City needing something which is a massive worry.
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Post by musik on Apr 22, 2024 8:03:57 GMT
My big worry is that they were celebrating with silly dances yesterday like it was job done. We go into Bristol City needing something which is a massive worry. Which I said from day 1 could happen. However, it all depends on Sheffield Wed.
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Post by swampmongrel on Apr 22, 2024 8:09:41 GMT
Best outcome is Huddersfield beating Birmingham and it’s all sorted. No way Hudds are overturning the goal difference and Brum couldn’t catch us. It’s must-win for Hudds really and I fancy them to do it. Best outcome is we win on Saturday, Tyrese scores 8 goals in the first half and PSG sign him in the summer for 200 million.
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Post by swampmongrel on Apr 22, 2024 8:12:10 GMT
Only two matches/results next saturday matter to Stoke. Stoke's obviously and Sheff Wed v WBA, A win for WBA means several teams can relax in the last game of the season. Or if Hudds win. They won’t catch us on GD.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Apr 22, 2024 8:13:04 GMT
Just a Huddersfield and/or West Brom win and we can all take a deep breath.
Hull winning at Coventry on Wednesday will help as them staying in the play off mix gives West Brom and Norwich an incentive to win at Sheff Wed/Birmingham and they also play Plymouth last game of the season.......
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Post by werrington on Apr 22, 2024 8:15:20 GMT
Just a Huddersfield and/or West Brom win and we can all take a deep breath. Hull winning at Coventry on Wednesday will help as them staying in the play off mix gives West Brom and Norwich an incentive to win at Sheff Wed/Birmingham and they also play Plymouth last game of the season....... Any result on Wednesday leaves West Brom needing a result on Saturday
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Post by mickstupp on Apr 22, 2024 8:23:20 GMT
Best outcome is Huddersfield beating Birmingham and it’s all sorted. No way Hudds are overturning the goal difference and Brum couldn’t catch us. It’s must-win for Hudds really and I fancy them to do it. Best outcome is we win on Saturday, Tyrese scores 8 goals in the first half and PSG sign him in the summer for 200 million. Don’t be so ridiculous. Campbell is out of contract in the summer and wouldn’t cost them a penny 😉
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Post by prestwichpotter on Apr 22, 2024 8:33:45 GMT
Just a Huddersfield and/or West Brom win and we can all take a deep breath. Hull winning at Coventry on Wednesday will help as them staying in the play off mix gives West Brom and Norwich an incentive to win at Sheff Wed/Birmingham and they also play Plymouth last game of the season....... Any result on Wednesday leaves West Brom needing a result on Saturday Yes but I want them to be under as much pressure as possible to win the game rather than settle for a point and get the job done. A Coventry win will bring them into it but it's a massive ask on the back of their FA Cup exploits to go and win 4 on the bounce. But then a Coventry win gives them more of an incentive to beat Blackburn on Saturday. Drives you mad does this!!
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Post by swampmongrel on Apr 22, 2024 9:19:13 GMT
I'm trying to work out the chance of us being safe this time next week. Back of a fag packet calculations.
If ANY of the following DON'T happen we'll be safe on the final day:
Stoke don't win (85% chance) Hudds don't win (58% chance) Wednesday don't lose (67% chance).
(percentages taken from whatever google uses for each match).
Therefore the probabilitiy of all three happening is 33% (0.85 * 0.58 * 0.67 = 0.33).
There's an added complication, that if we get a draw and Wednesday only draw we would then also be safe on the final day (given GD). I don't know how to calculate that. But I guess it means that the chance of us being at risk (on the final day) are slightly lower than 0.33.
I don't really know what I'm doing here. Is anyone capable of doing 'Monte Carlo' simulations for this?
Of course even if the above did all happen we'd still be heavy favourites to stay up but it would be squeaky bum time on the 4th May.
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Post by clivey05 on Apr 22, 2024 9:28:31 GMT
Depending on the Brum v Huddersfield result that will mean one of those can’t catch us, which then basically leaves the slim chance of us finishing 3rd bottom, If everyone else below us picks up points and we lose both of our games, which I don’t think we will.
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Post by atillathehoneybee on Apr 22, 2024 11:02:50 GMT
Stoke are staying up, Vale are going down, Now you're gonna believe us, Now you're gonna believe us, NOW YOU'RE GONNA BELIEVE US. Stoke are staying up.
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Post by ChesterStokie on Apr 22, 2024 12:11:12 GMT
My big worry is that they were celebrating with silly dances yesterday like it was job done. We go into Bristol City needing something which is a massive worry. What, we win our biggest home game for 7 years with a brilliant display and you are worried about the players celebrating at the end? If they hadn’t celebrated like that this board would have been inundated with people saying the players don’t care.
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Post by silsdenstokie on Apr 22, 2024 12:19:48 GMT
Not safe by any means at this point
However, it would be catestrophic if we went down from this position
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Apr 22, 2024 12:22:59 GMT
Rest assured, Stoke will find a way to take it to the last 10 minutes of the last game against Bristol.😂😂
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Post by benjaminbiscuit on Apr 22, 2024 12:42:02 GMT
I'm trying to work out the chance of us being safe this time next week. Back of a fag packet calculations. If ANY of the following DON'T happen we'll be safe on the final day: Stoke don't win (85% chance) Hudds don't win (58% chance) Wednesday don't lose (67% chance). (percentages taken from whatever google uses for each match). Therefore the probabilitiy of all three happening is 33% (0.85 * 0.58 * 0.67 = 0.33). There's an added complication, that if we get a draw and Wednesday only draw we would then also be safe on the final day (given GD). I don't know how to calculate that. But I guess it means that the chance of us being at risk (on the final day) are slightly lower than 0.33. I don't really know what I'm doing here. Is anyone capable of doing 'Monte Carlo' simulations for this? Of course even if the above did all happen we'd still be heavy favourites to stay up but it would be squeaky bum time on the 4th May. If it’s 0.1% we would find a way of making the last day torture we are Stoke City 😉
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Post by Ron on Apr 22, 2024 12:45:12 GMT
My big worry is that they were celebrating with silly dances yesterday like it was job done. We go into Bristol City needing something which is a massive worry. What, we win our biggest home game for 7 years with a brilliant display and you are worried about the players celebrating at the end? If they hadn’t celebrated like that this board would have been inundated with people saying the players don’t care. the level of celebrations were akin to us having secured safety already. I fear complacency in the next two that’s all I’m saying.
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Post by dirtygary69 on Apr 22, 2024 12:49:59 GMT
I just don't see everything going against us that needs to. I think at least one of this weekend's results goes our way and we'll be safe even if only on the basis of a much better GD.
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Post by dirtygary69 on Apr 22, 2024 12:55:38 GMT
What, we win our biggest home game for 7 years with a brilliant display and you are worried about the players celebrating at the end? If they hadn’t celebrated like that this board would have been inundated with people saying the players don’t care. the level of celebrations were akin to us having secured safety already. I fear complacency in the next two that’s all I’m saying. Schumacher and Laurent both said in their post match interviews that we couldn't relax yet.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Apr 22, 2024 15:47:55 GMT
the level of celebrations were akin to us having secured safety already. I fear complacency in the next two that’s all I’m saying. Schumacher and Laurent both said in their post match interviews that we couldn't relax yet. He's saying that because he doesn't want the players to down tools. There's some right doom mongerers / crackheads on here if people think we're going to get relegated.
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Post by jesusmcmuffin on Apr 22, 2024 16:03:02 GMT
What, we win our biggest home game for 7 years with a brilliant display and you are worried about the players celebrating at the end? If they hadn’t celebrated like that this board would have been inundated with people saying the players don’t care. the level of celebrations were akin to us having secured safety already. I fear complacency in the next two that’s all I’m saying. What level of celebrations? Saw nothing different than a good home win being celebrated
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Post by spoton on Apr 22, 2024 16:40:05 GMT
Hopefully some clever person can tell me how it works if goal difference is the same,I have a feeling it's Goals scored if that's the same then it depends on the teams how they have played each other who's won between them if both teams have won each other it goes to goals scored between the two teams,,,,is this correct if so would be interesting between us and QPR
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