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Post by Clayton Wood on Jun 11, 2023 18:38:05 GMT
SNP will surely lose lots of voters at the next GE Who picks up those votes? Liberals in some areas but surely Labour in the main? I'm not sure if they defo will lose as many as some suggest. The Scottish want independence and aside from SNP, are any other parties pushing for it? I don't think the Tories or Labour have any policies to entice them away. And as far as this finance scandal goes, is there anything concrete yet? No they don't New poll shows Scottish independence support at 43 per cent
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Post by flea79 on Jun 11, 2023 18:55:46 GMT
SNP will surely lose lots of voters at the next GE Who picks up those votes? Liberals in some areas but surely Labour in the main? Do Scottish Labour/Tory sit with the English parties or do they sit in the no man’s land with Lib Dem’s and independents etc?
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Post by gawa on Jun 11, 2023 19:01:55 GMT
I'm not sure if they defo will lose as many as some suggest. The Scottish want independence and aside from SNP, are any other parties pushing for it? I don't think the Tories or Labour have any policies to entice them away. And as far as this finance scandal goes, is there anything concrete yet? No they don't New poll shows Scottish independence support at 43 per centAlot of these polls are based on 1000 peoples views. IPSOS did a poll between 15-23 May which had it at 51% Yes, 45% No, 6% don't know. Alot of polls more recently do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong. My assumption is based more on the SNP surge over the last decade and independence being the main thing on their manifesto. But maybe alot of those votes were due to not liking the alternatives rather than pro SNP.
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Post by cvillestokie on Jun 11, 2023 19:19:29 GMT
Alot of these polls are based on 1000 peoples views. IPSOS did a poll between 15-23 May which had it at 51% Yes, 45% No, 6% don't know. Alot of polls more recently do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong. My assumption is based more on the SNP surge over the last decade and independence being the main thing on their manifesto. But maybe alot of those votes were due to not liking the alternatives rather than pro SNP. Even if it’s 51%, it’s still a bit far from saying “the Scottish want independence”. At 51%, it’s hardly a convincing majority.
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Post by lordb on Jun 11, 2023 19:27:05 GMT
SNP will surely lose lots of voters at the next GE Who picks up those votes? Liberals in some areas but surely Labour in the main? Do Scottish Labour/Tory sit with the English parties or do they sit in the no man’s land with Lib Dem’s and independents etc? They sit with their colleagues
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Post by lordb on Jun 11, 2023 19:28:00 GMT
Support for independence is one thing voting SNP after what's being going on is another they will lose seats, just a question of how many
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Post by salopstick on Jun 11, 2023 19:37:56 GMT
Support for independence is one thing voting SNP after what's being going on is another they will lose seats, just a question of how many All labour have to do is say they can’t control their party finances how can they run a country The way this investigation is going criminal charges seem inbound
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Post by gawa on Jun 11, 2023 19:38:38 GMT
Alot of these polls are based on 1000 peoples views. IPSOS did a poll between 15-23 May which had it at 51% Yes, 45% No, 6% don't know. Alot of polls more recently do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong. My assumption is based more on the SNP surge over the last decade and independence being the main thing on their manifesto. But maybe alot of those votes were due to not liking the alternatives rather than pro SNP. Even if it’s 51%, it’s still a bit far from saying “the Scottish want independence”. At 51%, it’s hardly a convincing majority. But I'm not really basing my opinion on what 1000 people in a poll said. I'm basing it on the SNP surge. For instance in Northern Ireland we have SF who are pro united ireland and 95% of their supporters at least want unification. The SNP has 6 MPs at the time of the referendum vote and less than 20% of the Scottish vote. This peaked at 56 MPs and 50% of the Scottish vote (30% didn't vote). At the last election they had 45% of the vote share. To me that suggests there's alot of support for Scottish independence right now. I'd have expected the SNP vote share to drop mote significantly if they Scots no longer wanted independence.
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Post by Clayton Wood on Jun 11, 2023 19:50:54 GMT
Alot of these polls are based on 1000 peoples views. IPSOS did a poll between 15-23 May which had it at 51% Yes, 45% No, 6% don't know. Alot of polls more recently do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong. My assumption is based more on the SNP surge over the last decade and independence being the main thing on their manifesto. But maybe alot of those votes were due to not liking the alternatives rather than pro SNP. This was 7th June, 4 days ago. You quoted a poll back in May, also made up of a sample, that happened to suit your agenda.
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Post by gawa on Jun 11, 2023 20:34:16 GMT
Alot of these polls are based on 1000 peoples views. IPSOS did a poll between 15-23 May which had it at 51% Yes, 45% No, 6% don't know. Alot of polls more recently do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong. My assumption is based more on the SNP surge over the last decade and independence being the main thing on their manifesto. But maybe alot of those votes were due to not liking the alternatives rather than pro SNP. This was 7th June, 4 days ago. You quoted a poll back in May, also made up of a sample, that happened to suit your agenda. Its the third post where I'll say that I don't think opinion polls of 1000 people portray the true picture. I think a swing of over 10% between your poll and the poll 2 weeks earlier backs that up. The poll was highlighted to show the variance, not to back up some agenda. If I had an agenda I don't think I'd be saying "alot of recent polls do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong". Doesn't sound like what someone with an agenda would say.
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Post by cvillestokie on Jun 11, 2023 21:20:49 GMT
Even if it’s 51%, it’s still a bit far from saying “the Scottish want independence”. At 51%, it’s hardly a convincing majority. But I'm not really basing my opinion on what 1000 people in a poll said. I'm basing it on the SNP surge. For instance in Northern Ireland we have SF who are pro united ireland and 95% of their supporters at least want unification. The SNP has 6 MPs at the time of the referendum vote and less than 20% of the Scottish vote. This peaked at 56 MPs and 50% of the Scottish vote (30% didn't vote). At the last election they had 45% of the vote share. To me that suggests there's alot of support for Scottish independence right now. I'd have expected the SNP vote share to drop mote significantly if they Scots no longer wanted independence. “At the last election they had 45% of the vote share” If one of SNPs flagship policies is to deliver independence and that is how it sets itself up, then 45% still seems low to me. Personally, I think that the use of simple majorities for huge changes is reckless. In the Senate, you need a supermajority for cloture or for overriding the Executive Branch. The idea of changing an entire country’s political structure and relationships with others based on a very simple majority is plain stupid and divisive.
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Post by adri2008 on Jun 12, 2023 8:12:19 GMT
Having the Tories in power has been the ideal scenario for the SNP. Good things: SNP, Bad things: those rotten Tories down in Westminster. It's allowed them to disguise a very patchy (at best) performance in the Scottish government. They'll lose some seats at the general election but the core independence vote will continue to prop them up effectively.
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Post by Veritas on Jun 12, 2023 8:17:51 GMT
Alot of these polls are based on 1000 peoples views. IPSOS did a poll between 15-23 May which had it at 51% Yes, 45% No, 6% don't know. Alot of polls more recently do sway the other way though. Maybe im wrong. My assumption is based more on the SNP surge over the last decade and independence being the main thing on their manifesto. But maybe alot of those votes were due to not liking the alternatives rather than pro SNP. Even if it’s 51%, it’s still a bit far from saying “the Scottish want independence”. At 51%, it’s hardly a convincing majority. As we know from the turmoil resulting from a UK wide 52% vote! If I was a Scot I would be pro independence but accept that constitutional changes need a lot more than a simple majority.
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Post by stiggerstackle on Jun 12, 2023 8:20:05 GMT
I've always been of the opinion that breaking up the Union is suicidal, and that we should do our absolute damndest to avoid it.
However, with this bunch of uber-cunts running and ruining the country over such a prolonged period, lurching from disaster to farce to disaster and back to farce makes me wonder why any sane person would want to remain a part of it if they had even the slightest chance of breaking away.
I want independence for Staffordshire!
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Post by wannabee on Jun 12, 2023 9:22:37 GMT
Having the Tories in power has been the ideal scenario for the SNP. Good things: SNP, Bad things: those rotten Tories down in Westminster. It's allowed them to disguise a very patchy (at best) performance in the Scottish government. They'll lose some seats at the general election but the core independence vote will continue to prop them up effectively. Is the right answer Even Clayton Woods Poll which he seems to overlook showed 42% in favour of a Referendum in the next year while 40% are opposed The biggest thing the Scots dislike is being told by Westminster they can't have something and the Tories are the biggest vote winners for SNP Voting SNP or Green who also want Independence does not automatically mean you want Independence but it's pretty close. Very much like Brexit young people in Scotland are very much in favour of Independence ironically in part to rejoin EU. Scotland like NI are on an inevitable path to Independence due to the changing demographic how long it takes is uncertain While I might empathise with the notion of a more than 50% requirement thats not how voting works in UK. The Act of Union is one of consent, if a majority don't consent the outcome is clear.
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Post by thevoid on Jun 12, 2023 9:52:56 GMT
I've always been of the opinion that breaking up the Union is suicidal, and that we should do our absolute damndest to avoid it. However, with this bunch of uber-cunts running and ruining the country over such a prolonged period, lurching from disaster to farce to disaster and back to farce makes me wonder why any sane person would want to remain a part of it if they had even the slightest chance of breaking away. I want independence for Staffordshire! www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10233961/amp/Could-Midlands-LEAVE-UK-radical-political-group-battling-independent-Mercia.htmlThat's the same Jeff Kent who writes about the Fail. I suppose they would have a realistic chance of top flight football in an independent Mercian League 😉
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Post by desman2 on Jun 12, 2023 10:58:04 GMT
It doesn't matter what the share percentage is. Its the percentage turnout that matters more. If the turnout is low but the vote percentage is high it still doesn't represent a national viewpoint
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Post by wannabee on Jun 12, 2023 11:06:22 GMT
It doesn't matter what the share percentage is. Its the percentage turnout that matters more. If the turnout is low but the vote percentage is high it still doesn't represent a national viewpoint The Conservatives won a landslide in 2019 GE with 29.3% of the Registered Vote, what's your point?
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Post by noustie on Jun 12, 2023 11:11:42 GMT
Poll tracker over the last couple of years but 'yes' and 'no' have been generally stagnant despite both sides having massive open goals: ballotbox.scot/independence/I think from my side the frustration is first time around Salmond took support from 20% to 45% whereas Sturgeon never really moved the dial. If there was a referendum tomorrow that had a caveat that there couldn't be another for 20 years I'd vote 'no'. The current SNP mob couldn't run a bath let alone set up the foundations of an Independent country. If there wasn't such a caveat I'd be serious torn because my worry would be they fucked it up to such an extent we'd be begging to get back in and understandably get absolutely shafted as a consequence. First time around having the SNP so closely linked to voting Yes helped for me as they grew in tandem. However, it never sat right with me that they'd need pretty much 50% of the vote because that just opens you right up to corruption, careerist troughing bastards, etc that can see being played out. If the SNP in its current form really wanted independence they'd not get embroiled with the batshit crazy Greens but would have looked to a Super Majority on the list with Alba - Independence kills Alba stone dead but instead they were so concerned of them getting a foot hold they campaigned hard for 1m+ 'list votes' with transferred into 1-2 bums on seats in reality rather than 25-30 if they'd gone to Alba because of how the system works. I've said before that I actually think independence is an opportunity for the Tories up here as they'll never get a serious vote share. If Scotland ever becomes independent I wouldn't be surprised if they were in government within 3 cycles or at the very least driving Labour / re-invented SNP centre-right.
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Post by cvillestokie on Jun 12, 2023 12:06:48 GMT
SNP won’t suspend her. Not shocking, “one rule for thee…” and all that.
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Post by Clayton Wood on Jun 12, 2023 12:33:39 GMT
Poll tracker over the last couple of years but 'yes' and 'no' have been generally stagnant despite both sides having massive open goals: ballotbox.scot/independence/I think from my side the frustration is first time around Salmond took support from 20% to 45% whereas Sturgeon never really moved the dial. If there was a referendum tomorrow that had a caveat that there couldn't be another for 20 years I'd vote 'no'. The current SNP mob couldn't run a bath let alone set up the foundations of an Independent country. If there wasn't such a caveat I'd be serious torn because my worry would be they fucked it up to such an extent we'd be begging to get back in and understandably get absolutely shafted as a consequence. First time around having the SNP so closely linked to voting Yes helped for me as they grew in tandem. However, it never sat right with me that they'd need pretty much 50% of the vote because that just opens you right up to corruption, careerist troughing bastards, etc that can see being played out. If the SNP in its current form really wanted independence they'd not get embroiled with the batshit crazy Greens but would have looked to a Super Majority on the list with Alba - Independence kills Alba stone dead but instead they were so concerned of them getting a foot hold they campaigned hard for 1m+ 'list votes' with transferred into 1-2 bums on seats in reality rather than 25-30 if they'd gone to Alba because of how the system works. I've said before that I actually think independence is an opportunity for the Tories up here as they'll never get a serious vote share. If Scotland ever becomes independent I wouldn't be surprised if they were in government within 3 cycles or at the very least driving Labour / re-invented SNP centre-right. It would be interesting (but won't happen) to put the vote to the whole of the UK. The 'push' added to the 'pull' might just swing it to independence.
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Post by Veritas on Jun 12, 2023 12:54:02 GMT
Poll tracker over the last couple of years but 'yes' and 'no' have been generally stagnant despite both sides having massive open goals: ballotbox.scot/independence/I think from my side the frustration is first time around Salmond took support from 20% to 45% whereas Sturgeon never really moved the dial. If there was a referendum tomorrow that had a caveat that there couldn't be another for 20 years I'd vote 'no'. The current SNP mob couldn't run a bath let alone set up the foundations of an Independent country. If there wasn't such a caveat I'd be serious torn because my worry would be they fucked it up to such an extent we'd be begging to get back in and understandably get absolutely shafted as a consequence. First time around having the SNP so closely linked to voting Yes helped for me as they grew in tandem. However, it never sat right with me that they'd need pretty much 50% of the vote because that just opens you right up to corruption, careerist troughing bastards, etc that can see being played out. If the SNP in its current form really wanted independence they'd not get embroiled with the batshit crazy Greens but would have looked to a Super Majority on the list with Alba - Independence kills Alba stone dead but instead they were so concerned of them getting a foot hold they campaigned hard for 1m+ 'list votes' with transferred into 1-2 bums on seats in reality rather than 25-30 if they'd gone to Alba because of how the system works. I've said before that I actually think independence is an opportunity for the Tories up here as they'll never get a serious vote share. If Scotland ever becomes independent I wouldn't be surprised if they were in government within 3 cycles or at the very least driving Labour / re-invented SNP centre-right. It would be interesting (but won't happen) to put the vote to the whole of the UK. The 'push' added to the 'pull' might just swing it to independence. Be an interesting conundrum if Scotland voted stay in and the rest of the UK voted get out!
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Post by noustie on Jun 12, 2023 13:22:59 GMT
It would be interesting (but won't happen) to put the vote to the whole of the UK. The 'push' added to the 'pull' might just swing it to independence. Be an interesting conundrum if Scotland voted stay in and the rest of the UK voted get out! My tuppence worth is we'd be out. Reason for that is two fold: I think from memory not once (or maybe once) in the last 100 years has the Scottish vote affected the outcome of a GE and; we were the only region to not get what we voted for during Brexit. Wales and England got out and NI got some sort of fudge to stay in but despite 62% voting 'remain' Scotland got sweet fa concession. I can honestly see a united Ireland before Scotland getting another referendum at this rate.
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Post by Veritas on Jun 12, 2023 13:42:17 GMT
Be an interesting conundrum if Scotland voted stay in and the rest of the UK voted get out! My tuppence worth is we'd be out. Reason for that is two fold: I think from memory not once (or maybe once) in the last 100 years has the Scottish vote affected the outcome of a GE and; we were the only region to not get what we voted for during Brexit. Wales and England got out and NI got some sort of fudge to stay in but despite 62% voting 'remain' Scotland got sweet fa concession. I can honestly see a united Ireland before Scotland getting another referendum at this rate. I tend to agree although I have a feeling the rest of Ireland while supporting the idea of unification may be very wary of being lumbered with the Unionist minority which could turn nasty.
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Post by noustie on Jun 12, 2023 14:23:19 GMT
My tuppence worth is we'd be out. Reason for that is two fold: I think from memory not once (or maybe once) in the last 100 years has the Scottish vote affected the outcome of a GE and; we were the only region to not get what we voted for during Brexit. Wales and England got out and NI got some sort of fudge to stay in but despite 62% voting 'remain' Scotland got sweet fa concession. I can honestly see a united Ireland before Scotland getting another referendum at this rate. I tend to agree although I have a feeling the rest of Ireland while supporting the idea of unification may be very wary of being lumbered with the Unionist minority which could turn nasty. It's hypothetical but in those circumstances it would also be interesting to see how much of a fight Westminster (ergo England) put up to keep them in comparison to Scotland 2014.
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Post by hamsta2 on Jun 12, 2023 14:34:29 GMT
Is anyone really surprised? Mrs Hamsta is. Shes a fierce Sturgeon fan - not a word against her. In the interests of keeping my aged bits in one piece I am saying nowt 😇 Mrs H update. I don’t know what she’s more pissed at. Nicola being in the deep stuff ( apparently it’s a conspiracy ) or Brenda being favourite for the Celtic job. I’ve learned lots of new Scottish swear words.
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Post by noustie on Jun 12, 2023 15:58:39 GMT
Mrs Hamsta is. Shes a fierce Sturgeon fan - not a word against her. In the interests of keeping my aged bits in one piece I am saying nowt 😇 Mrs H update. I don’t know what she’s more pissed at. Nicola being in the deep stuff ( apparently it’s a conspiracy ) or Brenda being favourite for the Celtic job. I’ve learned lots of new Scottish swear words. During your next sexual encounter seductively whisper in her ear that if Sturgeon took over Celtic and Brenda the SNP the results would remain the same anyway then enjoy the angry finale. 👍
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Post by Clayton Wood on Jun 12, 2023 16:58:30 GMT
Mrs H update. I don’t know what she’s more pissed at. Nicola being in the deep stuff ( apparently it’s a conspiracy ) or Brenda being favourite for the Celtic job. I’ve learned lots of new Scottish swear words. During your next sexual encounter seductively whisper in her ear that if Sturgeon took over Celtic and Brenda the SNP the results would remain the same anyway then enjoy the angry finale. 👍
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Post by hamsta2 on Jun 12, 2023 18:25:39 GMT
During your next sexual encounter seductively whisper in her ear that if Sturgeon took over Celtic and Brenda the SNP the results would remain the same anyway then enjoy the angry finale. 👍 Enjoy ? I’d be a victim of my own doing 💀
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Post by wannabee on Jun 12, 2023 18:57:06 GMT
I tend to agree although I have a feeling the rest of Ireland while supporting the idea of unification may be very wary of being lumbered with the Unionist minority which could turn nasty. It's hypothetical but in those circumstances it would also be interesting to see how much of a fight Westminster (ergo England) put up to keep them in comparison to Scotland 2014. I suspect very little resistance just some individual MPs from the Conservative & Unionist Party It is contained within the Good Friday Agreement that the NI Secretary is required "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". There is no specific trigger in GFA how NI Secretary determines that wish, but it is generally accepted that it would be Polling over a certain period of time To be fair if Polls in Scotland indicated similar it would be untenable Democratically to ignore.
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