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Post by tachyon on Apr 29, 2022 20:37:40 GMT
Around 35% of our crosses are from very good initial positions and around half of those 35% find a good end point in the box. So overall we get ~18% of our crosses from the optimum start point to the optimum end point. That's better than league average. Tymon especially good. It's the difference between an expected conversion rate of ~5% for only really good choices, to 1% for an average mix of crosses to ~ 0.2% conversion rates for universally bad choices. Cheers Interesting. If O'Neill uses this kind of data, it doesn't bode well for Tommy Smith's future. Tymon's a better chance creator and a smarter crosser, but the huge difference is that Tymon also attempts over three times more take on's per game. He' multi dimesional in the attacking third.
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Josh Maja
Apr 29, 2022 20:51:48 GMT
via mobile
Post by jimmygscfc1234 on Apr 29, 2022 20:51:48 GMT
Around 35% of our crosses are from very good initial positions and around half of those 35% find a good end point in the box. So overall we get ~18% of our crosses from the optimum start point to the optimum end point. That's better than league average. Tymon especially good. It's the difference between an expected conversion rate of ~5% for only really good choices, to 1% for an average mix of crosses to ~ 0.2% conversion rates for universally bad choices. Cheers Interesting. If O'Neill uses this kind of data, it doesn't bode well for Tommy Smith's future. What future?
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Josh Maja
Apr 29, 2022 20:53:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by cvillestokie on Apr 29, 2022 20:53:05 GMT
Around 35% of our crosses are from very good initial positions and around half of those 35% find a good end point in the box. So overall we get ~18% of our crosses from the optimum start point to the optimum end point. That's better than league average. Tymon especially good. It's the difference between an expected conversion rate of ~5% for only really good choices, to 1% for an average mix of crosses to ~ 0.2% conversion rates for universally bad choices. Cheers Interesting. If O'Neill uses this kind of data, it doesn't bode well for Tommy Smith's future. Smith needs someone in front of him. He’s managed to get an assist roughly every five games this season and has a very decent chipped pass, but he needs an active number 10 and a willing 9 to run the channel for it. He’s not really going to take a player on, but 6 assists from 30 odd games at right back/right wing back seems like a decent tally to me.
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Josh Maja
Apr 29, 2022 21:07:00 GMT
via mobile
Post by lordb on Apr 29, 2022 21:07:00 GMT
Cheers Interesting. If O'Neill uses this kind of data, it doesn't bode well for Tommy Smith's future. Smith needs someone in front of him. He’s managed to get an assist roughly every five games this season and has a very decent chipped pass, but he needs an active number 10 and a willing 9 to run the channel for it. He’s not really going to take a player on, but 6 assists from 30 odd games at right back/right wing back seems like a decent tally to me. Can you afford a wing back who doesn't take his man on?
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Post by pushon on Apr 29, 2022 21:11:40 GMT
There have been a few games where Tymon has flashed the ball in hard and low, from a good angle, and the forwards just haven't anticipated it in the way you expect from a natural goalscorer. Maja has looked short of confidence in the box and we all know Campbell isn't sharp at the moment. You haven't found yourself shouting "gamble" at them? McClean was scattergun. Tymon does seem to be playing more of a percentage game with his deliveries, I'm guessing he's following instructions on where to deliver from, and the height of his crosses. I’m not sure there is a right height for Maja. Wins nothing in the air and hopeless in at feet under any pressure. Maybe if everything was perfect for him he’d score but how often will that happen? Maja is a smaller less capable version of Kenwyne Jones.
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Post by lordb on Apr 29, 2022 21:24:48 GMT
I’m not sure there is a right height for Maja. Wins nothing in the air and hopeless in at feet under any pressure. Maybe if everything was perfect for him he’d score but how often will that happen? Maja is a smaller less capable version of Kenwyne Jones. Don’t see this it all Kenywnne was all power and pace and absolutely no idea what was going on Maja is a actual footballer who lacks that power and atm is out of form re sticking the ball in the net No idea if he'll score for us on a regular basis however he will for somebody at this level
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Josh Maja
Apr 29, 2022 22:14:34 GMT
via mobile
Post by cvillestokie on Apr 29, 2022 22:14:34 GMT
Smith needs someone in front of him. He’s managed to get an assist roughly every five games this season and has a very decent chipped pass, but he needs an active number 10 and a willing 9 to run the channel for it. He’s not really going to take a player on, but 6 assists from 30 odd games at right back/right wing back seems like a decent tally to me. Can you afford a wing back who doesn't take his man on? For as much as Tymon has done this season, Smith has still got twice as many assists and the same number of goals in less games. How important is taking a man on? Personally, I think that Smith in the side with Powell and Brown works really well. Ideally, we would get a more explosive right wing back who isn’t a mess defensively, but if one isn’t available, I’d rather keep Smith.
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Post by tachyon on Apr 30, 2022 6:46:42 GMT
Can you afford a wing back who doesn't take his man on? For as much as Tymon has done this season, Smith has still got twice as many assists and the same number of goals in less games. How important is taking a man on? Personally, I think that Smith in the side with Powell and Brown works really well. Ideally, we would get a more explosive right wing back who isn’t a mess defensively, but if one isn’t available, I’d rather keep Smith. As a fully paid up member of the "underlying stats trump actual output" because the former has better sample size & the latter is prone to variance, I'd say..... TS has been the final passer before a chance is attempted on 31 occasions, but only 19 have come in open play. JT has created 47 chances, 46 from open play. So TS has an opportunity based advantage because he takes set pieces (nothing wrong with that, but quick check, they account for over half of his actual assists). TS has 2.2 expected assists from open play, JT has 6.9 xA TS has 1.3 xA from set pieces, JT has 0.08 xA Account for minutes played and JT is a much better open play creative player. JT created 0.17 xA per full game from open play, TS created 0.08 (half JT's rate). JT created 1.13 open play chances per full game, TS created 0.66 (almost half JT's rate). JT created open play chances worth 0.15 xA per chance created, TS created 0.12 xA per chance (lower quality of chances compared to JT). Stylistically, JT plays infield much more than TS, who hugs the touchline a bit too much to open up space in the attacking third. (No hatchet job intended).
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 7:03:48 GMT
via mobile
Post by lordb on Apr 30, 2022 7:03:48 GMT
Can you afford a wing back who doesn't take his man on? For as much as Tymon has done this season, Smith has still got twice as many assists and the same number of goals in less games. How important is taking a man on? Personally, I think that Smith in the side with Powell and Brown works really well. Ideally, we would get a more explosive right wing back who isn’t a mess defensively, but if one isn’t available, I’d rather keep Smith. Agree with the last bit, if we can't get better stick. Atm because only one of our wing backs runs at defenders we are too predictable, sides can overload on that side knowing not in too much danger on the other side. that's partly why we have so many stodgy home games However as you say he does link with Powell and he does have a good cross Frustrating
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Apr 30, 2022 7:32:52 GMT
Can you afford a wing back who doesn't take his man on? For as much as Tymon has done this season, Smith has still got twice as many assists and the same number of goals in less games. How important is taking a man on? Personally, I think that Smith in the side with Powell and Brown works really well. Ideally, we would get a more explosive right wing back who isn’t a mess defensively, but if one isn’t available, I’d rather keep Smith. Smith is a momentum vacuum. No bravery on the ball or positionally. Can’t stand him really hope he’ll be gone at the end of the season.
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 7:46:04 GMT
via mobile
Post by misterj on Apr 30, 2022 7:46:04 GMT
Can’t see how Maja is the answer to our sh*t performances in the final third of the field. For me too bulky therefore doesn’t move fluidly, central strikers no longer need to be a battering ram! Although Sam Surridge didn’t look the part either and look at him fly at Forest!! It was worth taking a look at Maja but like Sima and Afobe, just can’t see him being the saviour of the forward line. Perhaps persevere with Campbell and DWP and use the money saved on Fletcher’s wages to go out and get a proven hungry young goal scorer from a league 1 or league 2 club?
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Apr 30, 2022 7:54:12 GMT
Can’t see how Maja is the answer to our sh*t performances in the final third of the field. For me too bulky therefore doesn’t move fluidly, central strikers no longer need to be a battering ram Although Sam Surridge didn’t look the part either and look at him fly at Forest It was worth taking a look at Maja but like Sima and Afobe, just can’t see him being the saviour of the forward line. Perhaps persevere with Campbell and DWP and use the money saved on Fletcher’s wages to go out and get a proven hungry young goal scorer from a league 1 or league 2 club? They don’t need to be a battering ram but you do need someone who can at least hold the ball up, link the play, create space for others and win the occasional aerial ball. Particularly if you’re only playing one up front.
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Post by lordb on Apr 30, 2022 8:00:45 GMT
Can’t see how Maja is the answer to our sh*t performances in the final third of the field. For me too bulky therefore doesn’t move fluidly, central strikers no longer need to be a battering ram Although Sam Surridge didn’t look the part either and look at him fly at Forest It was worth taking a look at Maja but like Sima and Afobe, just can’t see him being the saviour of the forward line. Perhaps persevere with Campbell and DWP and use the money saved on Fletcher’s wages to go out and get a proven hungry young goal scorer from a league 1 or league 2 club? Good league 1 strikers would generally cost at least double what Maja would Have we got £5m/£6m+ to spend on one player?
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 9:31:07 GMT
via mobile
Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 30, 2022 9:31:07 GMT
Can’t see how Maja is the answer to our sh*t performances in the final third of the field. For me too bulky therefore doesn’t move fluidly, central strikers no longer need to be a battering ram Although Sam Surridge didn’t look the part either and look at him fly at Forest It was worth taking a look at Maja but like Sima and Afobe, just can’t see him being the saviour of the forward line. Perhaps persevere with Campbell and DWP and use the money saved on Fletcher’s wages to go out and get a proven hungry young goal scorer from a league 1 or league 2 club? Good league 1 strikers would generally cost at least double what Maja would Have we got £5m/£6m+ to spend on one player? The market has crashed. Even without that how many strikers have sold for 5/6m from league one?
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 9:35:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2022 9:35:57 GMT
For as much as Tymon has done this season, Smith has still got twice as many assists and the same number of goals in less games. How important is taking a man on? Personally, I think that Smith in the side with Powell and Brown works really well. Ideally, we would get a more explosive right wing back who isn’t a mess defensively, but if one isn’t available, I’d rather keep Smith. As a fully paid up member of the "underlying stats trump actual output" because the former has better sample size & the latter is prone to variance, I'd say..... TS has been the final passer before a chance is attempted on 31 occasions, but only 19 have come in open play. JT has created 47 chances, 46 from open play. So TS has an opportunity based advantage because he takes set pieces (nothing wrong with that, but quick check, they account for over half of his actual assists). TS has 2.2 expected assists from open play, JT has 6.9 xA TS has 1.3 xA from set pieces, JT has 0.08 xA Account for minutes played and JT is a much better open play creative player. JT created 0.17 xA per full game from open play, TS created 0.08 (half JT's rate). JT created 1.13 open play chances per full game, TS created 0.66 (almost half JT's rate). JT created open play chances worth 0.15 xA per chance created, TS created 0.12 xA per chance (lower quality of chances compared to JT). Stylistically, JT plays infield much more than TS, who hugs the touchline a bit too much to open up space in the attacking third. (No hatchet job intended). great stuff, reading this makes me feel I've been a bit harsh on JT, feel like he's one step away from being a top player, if he would just be braver, take his man on more, shoot more with both feet
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Post by nottsover60 on Apr 30, 2022 9:39:37 GMT
Can’t see how Maja is the answer to our sh*t performances in the final third of the field. For me too bulky therefore doesn’t move fluidly, central strikers no longer need to be a battering ram Although Sam Surridge didn’t look the part either and look at him fly at Forest It was worth taking a look at Maja but like Sima and Afobe, just can’t see him being the saviour of the forward line. Perhaps persevere with Campbell and DWP and use the money saved on Fletcher’s wages to go out and get a proven hungry young goal scorer from a league 1 or league 2 club? I don't see Maja being bulky at all, positively skinny compared to Campbell. I like him because he can play a defence splitting pass but can also hold the ball up, turn and look for a pass to a midfield player. He's not fast or strong in the air but keeps possession well and has a good football brain. Those young hungry goal scorers lower down the Leagues can you name an example that you think we could get for less than £3million? With our rumoured wealth the value of those players will double as soon as we show interest and clubs won't be in a rush to sell goal scoreres and there's no guarantee they could do it in the Championship or score more than Maja at Stoke and I suspect their link up play would not be as good.
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Post by nottsover60 on Apr 30, 2022 9:44:14 GMT
Good league 1 strikers would generally cost at least double what Maja would Have we got £5m/£6m+ to spend on one player? The market has crashed. Even without that how many strikers have sold for 5/6m from league one? I'm expecting the home market to start improving again this summer, not so much foreign imports which is why I think we can get Maja for less from France (I know he's English but he's playing abroad).
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 10:03:28 GMT
via mobile
Post by nonameface on Apr 30, 2022 10:03:28 GMT
Are there actually any decent young forwards in League 1 ready for the step up?
Top goalscorers aged 25 and less are:
Twine, MK dons midfielder 16 in 44 Hardie, Plymouth forward 16 in 37 Lang, Wigan forward 15 in 41 udoh, Shrewsbury forward 13 in 45
Comparison Vokes 15 in 42 Gregory 15 in 35
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Post by robwahlmann on Apr 30, 2022 10:58:41 GMT
I still wonder how much we would have to pay for Adebayo at Luton? Looks strong and quick, can hold the ball up, and is also scoring a decent amount of goals. That is the kind of player we need in my opinion. ![:))](//storage.proboards.com/800541/images/jitsPgqXBozY69AOPrPg.gif)
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 11:11:08 GMT
via mobile
Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 30, 2022 11:11:08 GMT
The market has crashed. Even without that how many strikers have sold for 5/6m from league one? I'm expecting the home market to start improving again this summer, not so much foreign imports which is why I think we can get Maja for less from France (I know he's English but he's playing abroad). Based on what? And how many league one strikers have moved for 5/6m?
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 11:35:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by lordb on Apr 30, 2022 11:35:32 GMT
I'm expecting the home market to start improving again this summer, not so much foreign imports which is why I think we can get Maja for less from France (I know he's English but he's playing abroad). Based on what? And how many league one strikers have moved for 5/6m? A fair few over the years and/or that's been the asking price e.g the double barrel name striker at Peterborough who got a shed load in League 1 but very few in The Championship The idea that €3.5m is big money for a striker is bonkers if that's our budget (& we may have less?) it's going to be difficult to get a goalscorer without taking a gamble
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 11:41:04 GMT
via mobile
Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 30, 2022 11:41:04 GMT
Based on what? And how many league one strikers have moved for 5/6m? A fair few over the years and/or that's been the asking price e.g the double barrel name striker at Peterborough who got a shed load in League 1 but very few in The Championship The idea that €3.5m is big money for a striker is bonkers if that's our budget (& we may have less?) it's going to be difficult to get a goalscorer without taking a gamble Who? And it’s not in the post covid market.
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 11:42:40 GMT
via mobile
Post by lordb on Apr 30, 2022 11:42:40 GMT
A fair few over the years and/or that's been the asking price e.g the double barrel name striker at Peterborough who got a shed load in League 1 but very few in The Championship The idea that €3.5m is big money for a striker is bonkers if that's our budget (& we may have less?) it's going to be difficult to get a goalscorer without taking a gamble Who? And it’s not in the post covid market. Specifically goalscorers Let's see which Championship clubs sign them this summer and how much they go for
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Post by FullerMagic on Apr 30, 2022 11:43:25 GMT
Based on what? And how many league one strikers have moved for 5/6m? A fair few over the years and/or that's been the asking price e.g the double barrel name striker at Peterborough who got a shed load in League 1 but very few in The Championship The idea that €3.5m is big money for a striker is bonkers if that's our budget (& we may have less?) it's going to be difficult to get a goalscorer without taking a gamble It is in the Champo though, isn't it, Lord? Unless the market is going to explode again. There just aren't any clubs in the division who are going to be spending fees of a few million, apart from the parachute boys and 2-3 others (and we may just about be one of those at the lower end)
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Post by Squeekster on Apr 30, 2022 11:45:24 GMT
I'd take a punt on Maja but not at 3.5 million Euro.
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Post by FullerMagic on Apr 30, 2022 12:10:14 GMT
You never know, but just looking at the league, the only ones that would be maybe looking to spend meaningful fees would be:
Bournemouth, Sheff Utd( if they don't go up) , Maybe Boro and Forest? WBA? Maybe Sunderland will look to make a bit of a splash if they come up and Swansea if they cash in on Piroe?
Can't really see Hudders, Luton, Blackburn, Millwall, Preston, Cov, QPR, Bristol C, Hull, Brum or Reading splashing much cash Cardiff have already said they're looking at bringing 10+ players but money is going to be tight.
It'll be interesting to see what's spent this summer, although suppose it's normally the salary levels that is the key differentiator between the different tiers of clubs.
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Josh Maja
Apr 30, 2022 12:16:55 GMT
via mobile
Post by lordb on Apr 30, 2022 12:16:55 GMT
A fair few over the years and/or that's been the asking price e.g the double barrel name striker at Peterborough who got a shed load in League 1 but very few in The Championship The idea that €3.5m is big money for a striker is bonkers if that's our budget (& we may have less?) it's going to be difficult to get a goalscorer without taking a gamble It is in the Champo though, isn't it, Lord? Unless the market is going to explode again. There just aren't any clubs in the division who are going to be spending fees of a few million, apart from the parachute boys and 2-3 others (and we may just about be one of those at the lower end) But what bigger fees are spent, by non parachute payment clubs, will generally be on strikers Would expect one or two to go for double that or more with most clubs spending nothing at all relying on loans What I don't expect is strikers going for £500k or £1m as touted on this thread and on the summer transfer tgread
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Post by FullerMagic on Apr 30, 2022 12:27:29 GMT
It is in the Champo though, isn't it, Lord? Unless the market is going to explode again. There just aren't any clubs in the division who are going to be spending fees of a few million, apart from the parachute boys and 2-3 others (and we may just about be one of those at the lower end) But what bigger fees are spent, by non parachute payment clubs, will generally be on strikers Would expect one or two to go for double that or more with most clubs spending nothing at all relying on loans What I don't expect is strikers going for £500k or £1m as touted on this thread and on the summer transfer tgread We'll see - but I'd be a bit surprised if any non-parachute club spent more than the Maja clause fee unless they get a really big fee in, like Swansea might do I think the only crazy fee last summer was Boro and the Argentinian guy who has completely flopped, and Gibson seemed to really want to push the boat out on him. It mainly seems to be sub-£2m, frees and loans with clubs having to be really careful and watching the pennies.
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Post by kustokie on Apr 30, 2022 12:37:25 GMT
Smith needs someone in front of him. He’s managed to get an assist roughly every five games this season and has a very decent chipped pass, but he needs an active number 10 and a willing 9 to run the channel for it. He’s not really going to take a player on, but 6 assists from 30 odd games at right back/right wing back seems like a decent tally to me. Can you afford a wing back who doesn't take his man on? Definitely not. This is one area more than any other that we need strengthen if MON persists with 3-5-2. Unfortunately as I said on another thread wingbacks are hard to come by. We haven’t had a good right wingback since Hughes switched to three at the back and that was a major contributor to his and our downfall. I still haven’t forgiven him for that bonehead move.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2022 12:37:50 GMT
i guess you can google the stats , but i would say our crosses in to the box, are average for the championship
perhaps tymon's are a bit better than average and tommy smiths a bit worse
the championship is not the prem but it is still pro football
a top profesional striker will run, to not quite where the ball is going , and take the defender with him only at the very last fraction of a second to change direction and arrive where the cross is going, a fraction ahead of their man (marker) this is what harry kane is brilliant at and other class strikers are good at Josh Maja is no where near this level
Josh Maja doesn't even run directly to where the ball is going and arrive on the cross , challenged by his marker , having failed to give him the slip If he did that ( he doesn't) , that would still be quite poor for a pro striker , who ought to be able to take the defender to where he wants him , at least now and then but sadly josh maja doesn't even arrive on the cross challenged and marked
he is really quite a way off , where he needs to be
watching maja is unfortunately nothing like watching a beattie, fuller or stein it is not even like watching jacob brown
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