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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 17, 2023 16:08:12 GMT
[snip]Appears that the Ukrainians have excellent artillery spotters. How do they compare with the ruskies? I believe Ukraine is firing hundreds of shells for each Russian vehicle they hit. Obviously they only share video of hits and near misses so we're getting a very rosy picture! That said, I think both are a mixed bag but the Ukrainians have been better overall. Point 1: Russia shoots many more shells, Ukraine shoots a lot more videos of hits. Maybe Russia is just as good but is targeting trenches and the videos don't get released because they're boring? But that's a push for me, I think the Ukrainian spotting is better. Point 2: Soldiers on both sides say so. Ukrainians often have drone units working with the gunners who are allowed to respond to frontline commanders. The Russians sometimes plan shots a day in advance, or soldiers have to send a request all the way up to some serious officer. Russia is learning and has some dangerous spotters, they use spotter drones for their laser-guided Krasnopol rounds or Lancet drones... but it seems they can't import the parts for a lot of those weapons so the Ukrainians are just doing more damage with fewer guns.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 17, 2023 17:08:28 GMT
[snip]Appears that the Ukrainians have excellent artillery spotters. How do they compare with the ruskies? I believe Ukraine is firing hundreds of shells for each Russian vehicle they hit. Obviously they only share video of hits and near misses so we're getting a very rosy picture! That said, I think both are a mixed bag but the Ukrainians have been better overall. Point 1: Russia shoots many more shells, Ukraine shoots a lot more videos of hits. Maybe Russia is just as good but is targeting trenches and the videos don't get released because they're boring? But that's a push for me, I think the Ukrainian spotting is better. Point 2: Soldiers on both sides say so. Ukrainians often have drone units working with the gunners who are allowed to respond to frontline commanders. The Russians sometimes plan shots a day in advance, or soldiers have to send a request all the way up to some serious officer. Russia is learning and has some dangerous spotters, they use spotter drones for their laser-guided Krasnopol rounds or Lancet drones... but it seems they can't import the parts for a lot of those weapons so the Ukrainians are just doing more damage with fewer guns. Yes indeed, the longer this goes on the better the Russian tactics will get, (or put it another way they’ll be less stupid having learned some hard lessons) I hope the Ukrainians have enough in reserve to launch a big offensive in the next few months as otherwise I can’t see them ever dislodging the Russians
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Post by georgeberrysafro on Mar 17, 2023 18:36:11 GMT
He knows it would look bad to endorse Putin, it's about the strongest low-risk signal he could give. Making it clear he's opposed to genocide, that he supports democracy, and that he'd continue the extremely cost-effective support to defend a free country should be the minimum bar IMO. I was following betting markets for the US presidency. It's back to Biden in front right now but Trump/DeSantis combined are priced as more likely. It looks like DeSantis is moving to place himself as another pro-Putiner like Trump. DeSantis was ahead overall for a while. You post some fantastic, insightful stuff on this thread MrStudent but I have to disagree with you re DeSantis comments. They were far from an endorsement. I see them as comments that are aimed towards not pouring more fuel on the fire so to speak. We had similar media frenzy around Giorgia Meloni and her almost identical comments. Yet in practice, she's proven to be hugely supportive of Zelensky's war effort. I think DeSantis could have been a bit more sensitive with his wording but I don't think there is any danger (despite what the CNN's and BBC's will have you believe) that DeSantis will take a pro-Putin stance. So you basically think what's going on in the Ukraine is a territorial dispute? and the US should stop providing aid to the Ukraine? Let Putin do what he wants after what you've witnessed in the last year? feck me. DeSantis has gone from urging sending defensive and offensive weapons to the Ukraine in 2014/15 and even voted to refuse to fund a new missile defense treaty with Russia until they withdrew from Ukraine. To calling it a mere 'territorial dispute' because he wants to be seen as some anit-woke cultural warrior. His 'wokeness' is just a lame cover to be push racist, homophobic, and his xenophobic agendas along with others. He's pandering to pro-Putin MAGA republicians, a place where if you ask most MAGA fanatics now if they'd vote Biden or Putin they'd vote Putin. Let's see if meatball Ron has what it takes to run as he has the tactics of a turd at the moment.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 17, 2023 18:56:24 GMT
I believe Ukraine is firing hundreds of shells for each Russian vehicle they hit. Obviously they only share video of hits and near misses so we're getting a very rosy picture! That said, I think both are a mixed bag but the Ukrainians have been better overall. Point 1: Russia shoots many more shells, Ukraine shoots a lot more videos of hits. Maybe Russia is just as good but is targeting trenches and the videos don't get released because they're boring? But that's a push for me, I think the Ukrainian spotting is better. Point 2: Soldiers on both sides say so. Ukrainians often have drone units working with the gunners who are allowed to respond to frontline commanders. The Russians sometimes plan shots a day in advance, or soldiers have to send a request all the way up to some serious officer. Russia is learning and has some dangerous spotters, they use spotter drones for their laser-guided Krasnopol rounds or Lancet drones... but it seems they can't import the parts for a lot of those weapons so the Ukrainians are just doing more damage with fewer guns. Yes indeed, the longer this goes on the better the Russian tactics will get, (or put it another way they’ll be less stupid having learned some hard lessons) I hope the Ukrainians have enough in reserve to launch a big offensive in the next few months as otherwise I can’t see them ever dislodging the Russians Right now I still think the trajectory is Ukraine getting stronger and Russia getting weaker and this year looks like Russia's last one of technical firepower advantage. Russia is learning skills but losing quality of guns and tech. Ukraine is also learning but gaining quality of guns and tech. In quantity: on the current path Russia will be firing as much or much less next year. Ukraine will be firing more. But!! If China gets properly involved and the West doesn't counter then I'd agree this year would look like a last chance. But if Western budget suggestions go through and Russia doesn't get Chinese weaponry... I think they're fucked. Of course, I dunno. There could be surprises like a new super cheap and effective drone or something.
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Post by Marc01 on Mar 17, 2023 19:12:01 GMT
Yes indeed, the longer this goes on the better the Russian tactics will get, (or put it another way they’ll be less stupid having learned some hard lessons) I hope the Ukrainians have enough in reserve to launch a big offensive in the next few months as otherwise I can’t see them ever dislodging the Russians Right now I still think the trajectory is Ukraine getting stronger and Russia getting weaker and this year looks like Russia's last one of technical firepower advantage. Russia is learning skills but losing quality of guns and tech. Ukraine is also learning but gaining quality of guns and tech. In quantity: on the current path Russia will be firing as much or much less next year. Ukraine will be firing more. But!! If China gets properly involved and the West doesn't counter then I'd agree this year would look like a last chance. But if Western budget suggestions go through and Russia doesn't get Chinese weaponry... I think they're fucked. Of course, I dunno. There could be surprises like a new super cheap and effective drone or something. Heard an informed correspondent on LBC today. He referenced that China would lead themselves automatically into sanctions if they supply weapons to Russia, as would any country supplying Russia. This is part of the scope of the sanctions against Russia.
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Post by questionable on Mar 17, 2023 19:19:35 GMT
I honestly think that Russia is finished, in a nut shell they’ve got away with doing whatever they want for decades and totally misread the reaction of the west now.
Surely we need to hammer them with massive sanctions, for example Swiss banks have an estimated 125 billion of their money.
Seriously knowledgeable people are forecasting Russia is done completely
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 17, 2023 20:16:15 GMT
Right now I still think the trajectory is Ukraine getting stronger and Russia getting weaker and this year looks like Russia's last one of technical firepower advantage. Russia is learning skills but losing quality of guns and tech. Ukraine is also learning but gaining quality of guns and tech. In quantity: on the current path Russia will be firing as much or much less next year. Ukraine will be firing more. But!! If China gets properly involved and the West doesn't counter then I'd agree this year would look like a last chance. But if Western budget suggestions go through and Russia doesn't get Chinese weaponry... I think they're fucked. Of course, I dunno. There could be surprises like a new super cheap and effective drone or something. Heard an informed correspondent on LBC today. He referenced that China would lead themselves automatically into sanctions if they supply weapons to Russia, as would any country supplying Russia. This is part of the scope of the sanctions against Russia. They already supplied 1000 machine guns 12 tons of body armour and plenty of parts and spares Luckily thus far there’s been no heavy weapons but if that were to change, as MRT says above then all bets are off
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Post by Marc01 on Mar 17, 2023 21:24:53 GMT
Heard an informed correspondent on LBC today. He referenced that China would lead themselves automatically into sanctions if they supply weapons to Russia, as would any country supplying Russia. This is part of the scope of the sanctions against Russia. They already supplied 1000 machine guns 12 tons of body armour and plenty of parts and spares Luckily thus far there’s been no heavy weapons but if that were to change, as MRT says above then all bets are off A report here: www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/us/politics/china-russia-sanctions.html
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 17, 2023 21:51:41 GMT
Dunno when this was taken but it looks just like recent videos on Telegram, especially in Donbas.
Look at that mud! That's why I don't think we'll see any major Ukrainian attacks soon.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 18, 2023 3:03:51 GMT
So what your linked article suggests is that satellites could definitely tell it wasn't the ship Hersh apparently referred to in the region but these same satellites can't or won't confirm what ships or craft were!! The MSM fabricating an implausible response to the Hersh article a week after the UN were asked to investigate speaks volumes IMO - If you didn't do it why say anything? As for the blasts causing gas prices to rise - Nordstream 1 wasn't even operating due to the wests sanctions and Nordstream 2 had never been switched on. But destroying it did take away the options of an EU with weakening resolve (Germany in particular) from getting off the NATO war wagon - the irony being the EU is still buying limited Russian oil and gas indirectly from 3rd parties at higher prices!! And why would Russia terminate their largest direct revenue stream? Biden even boasted he was going to do it and from what I've read the major (short term) beneficiaries are the US who have filled the void at the expense of their own reserves. I guess time will tell and at some point the truth will out but Europe as a whole has been massively compromised by this event and the full effects will be felt next winter. Once I went to Brussels and a few months later got fined for an alleged unpaid train ticket on a date I was away. The court accepted the photos, hostel CCTV, witnesses, Megabus tickets etc as proving the train company was wrong and I think that applies here. I'm ignoring Hersh's story because he confidently gave details that were bullshit - if he was telling the truth why would he make things up? Someone wanted the story out, clearly. The USA and Russia both have the means, motive & opportunity. But it also might be an unofficial group that just wanted to cause trouble. Or something like Latvia going rogue. If you could split up a pound of bets, how would you? I think I'd put about 50p on official Russia, maybe 10-20p on the official yanks and split 30-40p between different fractions like Ukraine or a rogue CIA/FSB op.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 18, 2023 17:13:03 GMT
Another ~10 Russian vehicles blown up by drones.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 18, 2023 18:53:51 GMT
Things getting worse in Avdiivka too, a town South of Bakhmut.
Russia is pushing really hard.
This time last year Russia had taken several larger cities, was at the gates of Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv, and was close to cutting off Kyiv.
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Post by hcstokie on Mar 18, 2023 21:02:08 GMT
Things getting worse in Avdiivka too, a town South of Bakhmut. Russia is pushing really hard. This time last year Russia had taken several larger cities, was at the gates of Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv, and was close to cutting off Kyiv. You’ve got to think that some of the coverage sensationalises what’s going on. Russia have advanced at a snail’s pace for months, yet the media report on significant breakthroughs when in reality a lot of it is just Ukrainians making Russians pay, withdrawing and giving them fields or roads to nowhere. I mentioned above, but Russia’s gains have been minimal and, in the main strategically insignificant, for months at a huge cost of life. I see Ukraine have started probing attacks across the southern front in the last few days. I think once they identify a weak spot and the weather dries up we’ll see some western armour on the move 🤞🏻
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 19, 2023 19:59:00 GMT
Knowledgeable bloke suggests Russia can only keep up its current attacks for another 1-2 months, and that Ukraine probably won't start proper attacks until around June.
Lots of good info behind those guesses but still just guesses.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 20, 2023 2:59:17 GMT
Another ~$30m Russian Ka-52 helicopter whacked. I thought the video looked fake at first but seems like it's real!
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 20, 2023 7:24:24 GMT
Nationalisation is perhaps too strong a word, but the net effect is the same, especially seeing that what in essence it's a 10% cash injection of its inflated former value. In reality, he injection is going to be much higher, and as you know, the loan will have onerous strings attached. It's hugely disturbing that the financial system can find itself in this position, and again it's going to be the little people that foot the bill. To be fair Richie I agree with a lot of what you say and if contagion and poor investor sentiment set in anything is possible Credit Suisse have spun off their investment arm under the First Boston name and are apparently going back to its core business catering to very high net worth people Kind of ironic on this thread as its estimated they hold between $150/200Bn deposits of 1100 Wealthy Russians Whether their restructuring is successful the jury is out. Credit Suisse is one of the 30 Banks deemed too big to fail so I'm sure the Gnomes would do something As I said I wouldn't rule out a merger with UBS I suspected that the situation with Credit Suisse was worse than we were led to believe, however, I did not see a $500 billion (compared to its stated 2022 value) write down coming. On the other hand, I no longer view Saudi's reticence to invest more capital as spurious. The net effect on potential government arms spending in the Western world is no less at risk, as it's unlikely that Credit Suisse is the only major bank that's been acting recklessly. A partial banking collapse would be good news for Russia. Saudi can afford to take the hit, and it would gain more influence as it will have the funds to bail out banks and countries.
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Post by iancransonsknees on Mar 20, 2023 7:30:13 GMT
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Post by prestwichpotter on Mar 20, 2023 8:02:32 GMT
Knowledgeable bloke suggests Russia can only keep up its current attacks for another 1-2 months, and that Ukraine probably won't start proper attacks until around June. Lots of good info behind those guesses but still just guesses. You always have remember the Russian incompetence factor as well……..
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Post by wannabee on Mar 20, 2023 13:25:31 GMT
To be fair Richie I agree with a lot of what you say and if contagion and poor investor sentiment set in anything is possible Credit Suisse have spun off their investment arm under the First Boston name and are apparently going back to its core business catering to very high net worth people Kind of ironic on this thread as its estimated they hold between $150/200Bn deposits of 1100 Wealthy Russians Whether their restructuring is successful the jury is out. Credit Suisse is one of the 30 Banks deemed too big to fail so I'm sure the Gnomes would do something As I said I wouldn't rule out a merger with UBS I suspected that the situation with Credit Suisse was worse than we were led to believe, however, I did not see a $500 billion (compared to its stated 2022 value) write down coming. On the other hand, I no longer view Saudi's reticence to invest more capital as spurious. The net effect on potential government arms spending in the Western world is no less at risk, as it's unlikely that Credit Suisse is the only major bank that's been acting recklessly. A partial banking collapse would be good news for Russia. Saudi can afford to take the hit, and it would gain more influence as it will have the funds to bail out banks and countries. When Credit Suisse recently said they had found "Material Weaknesses" in its Financial Reporting this was at the end of years of scandals, fines and bad investment decisions the writing was on the wall I'm not sure where your $500Bn figure is from CS Market Cap was $23Bn in 2021 and dropped to $11Bn in 2022. Its highest Market Cap was $82Bn in 2006 The arranged marriage between UBS and CS was a shotgun wedding the alternative was as you said last week Nationalisation An interesting aspect of the deal was to place shareholders above AT1 Bondholders wiping out their $17Bn. This will be in Court for years This move obviously made the Saudi's less disgruntled as they get back 40% of their money What is dangerous in this move is there are $275Bn of these AT1 Bondholders, a legacy of 2008 crash, with European Banks whose lawyers are going to be poring over the fine print of their contracts It is likely to place some level of scrutiny on Deutsche Bank, BNP etc As I said earlier UBS was a somewhat reluctant suitor Chairman Kelleher has been consistently denying a takeover. I suspect CS may become a Domestic Bank. Certainly its investment arm will be wound down. The more aggressive investment culture at CS will be purged for the core business principles of UBS I'd expect at least 50% of the combined 10,000 UK workforce to be gone shortly The US Banks although unconnected to CS problems are far from out of the woods. The US Regional Banks problems are somewhat self inflicted by lack of oversight and regulation Trumps decision in 2018 to amend Obama's 2010 Dodd-Frank was crazy which increased many regulations from $50Bn to $250Bn Ironically SVP CEO was one of the most prominent Lobbyists and Cheerleaders for the increase as SVB was approaching the $50Bn threshold. The ammendment didn't preclude the Fed from investigating but the useless Jerome Powell was asleep at the wheel on this as well as dismissing the risk of inflation at its earliest signs and failing to increase interest rates quickly enough and then probably too aggressively
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 20, 2023 15:51:41 GMT
EU agrees 2 bn euro artillery ammo deal. "Diplomats said the plan targets sending the first one billion euro's worth of shells to Ukraine by the end of May". Also: Ukraine gets Slovak & Polish MiG-29s. "17 MiG-29 will not change the course of the air war, particularly as they won’t disrupt the technological advantage held by Russian fighters. However, they will help sustain Ukraine, rolling back Russia’s hopes that it can slowly grind away Ukraine’s Air Force," Sounds like the artillery shells are crucial and it's surprisingly cheap, no? The MiGs are to buy the Ukrainian air force another 6-12 months of stalemate. Should use that time to scrape together a few hundred F-16s.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 20, 2023 16:59:32 GMT
Another Russian modern looking fighter jet has gone down from the look of it
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 20, 2023 17:07:20 GMT
About 3k artillery rounds per day for Ukraine over the next year, plus orders to get the factories running long term. If that's all 152/155 mm and it's in addition to all the other European supplies promised before then we'll be close to what Ukraine says it needs.
If they're including lower calibre (105/122), or mortar ammo, or the already-planned production from CSG, Rheinmetall etc then Ukraine will keep suffering shell hunger all year.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 20, 2023 20:28:02 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 20, 2023 21:28:40 GMT
Seems like it was on the railway line near the airbase.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 20, 2023 21:28:40 GMT
Russians claim they shot down everything, like they always do. That explosion looked awfully close to ground level, but also like it started in the air?
The videos have the buzzing noise that comes from smaller drones (e.g. Shahed) and the boom looks way bigger than they normally do on their own...
EDIT: so gotta think Ukraine hit something *or* it was a low interception by a big AA missile?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 20, 2023 23:24:50 GMT
I suspected that the situation with Credit Suisse was worse than we were led to believe, however, I did not see a $500 billion (compared to its stated 2022 value) write down coming. On the other hand, I no longer view Saudi's reticence to invest more capital as spurious. The net effect on potential government arms spending in the Western world is no less at risk, as it's unlikely that Credit Suisse is the only major bank that's been acting recklessly. A partial banking collapse would be good news for Russia. Saudi can afford to take the hit, and it would gain more influence as it will have the funds to bail out banks and countries. When Credit Suisse recently said they had found "Material Weaknesses" in its Financial Reporting this was at the end of years of scandals, fines and bad investment decisions the writing was on the wall I'm not sure where your $500Bn figure is from CS Market Cap was $23Bn in 2021 and dropped to $11Bn in 2022. Its highest Market Cap was $82Bn in 2006 The arranged marriage between UBS and CS was a shotgun wedding the alternative was as you said last week Nationalisation An interesting aspect of the deal was to place shareholders above AT1 Bondholders wiping out their $17Bn. This will be in Court for years This move obviously made the Saudi's less disgruntled as they get back 40% of their money What is dangerous in this move is there are $275Bn of these AT1 Bondholders, a legacy of 2008 crash, with European Banks whose lawyers are going to be poring over the fine print of their contracts It is likely to place some level of scrutiny on Deutsche Bank, BNP etc As I said earlier UBS was a somewhat reluctant suitor Chairman Kelleher has been consistently denying a takeover. I suspect CS may become a Domestic Bank. Certainly its investment arm will be wound down. The more aggressive investment culture at CS will be purged for the core business principles of UBS I'd expect at least 50% of the combined 10,000 UK workforce to be gone shortly The US Banks although unconnected to CS problems are far from out of the woods. The US Regional Banks problems are somewhat self inflicted by lack of oversight and regulation Trumps decision in 2018 to amend Obama's 2010 Dodd-Frank was crazy which increased many regulations from $50Bn to $250Bn Ironically SVP CEO was one of the most prominent Lobbyists and Cheerleaders for the increase as SVB was approaching the $50Bn threshold. The ammendment didn't preclude the Fed from investigating but the useless Jerome Powell was asleep at the wheel on this as well as dismissing the risk of inflation at its earliest signs and failing to increase interest rates quickly enough and then probably too aggressively The $500+ bn figure is from CS published figures of their 2022 assets, rather than market cap, and their assets have proven to be anything but!
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2023 16:19:36 GMT
Tracking ships near Nord Stream explosion sites. Says it "appears highly probable that there were two instances in 2022 prior to the Nord Stream sabotage where Russian vessels came in close proximity to the site of the sabotage before being chased from the area by Danish and Swedish naval vessels." He's able to ID the first case as the Russian frigate Yaroslav Mudry on 14 March 2022. The next time was 22 September, maybe the next post will work out the ship(s).
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Post by prestwichpotter on Mar 21, 2023 17:44:15 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2023 18:55:20 GMT
Orange line: last week Red line: this week
At this rate Russia will reach Bakhmut city centre in ~1 month and clear the city in 3+ months.
EDIT: now semi-reliable rumours that Ukraine counterattacked and cleared some areas.
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Post by musik on Mar 22, 2023 10:29:12 GMT
And the Noble Piece Price goes to ...
I wouldn't have been surprised.
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