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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 8, 2022 7:56:29 GMT
Is the train a supply train to Russian forces? It’s one of the main supply routes for the Russian force in the south. Interesting to find out what the Ukranians used to attack it as no HIMARS system they have has that range I believe. But that was the same for the missile attack on the Crimean Air Force base and I think they used their own sort of missiles for that. They must fancy a run on the Crimea soon with this action.
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Post by musik on Oct 8, 2022 9:18:59 GMT
It appears that the widely held view, is that if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine, then the worst thing that NATO (well the USA) could do, would be to respond with a nuclear retaliation but rather, they would place pressure on China and India to condemn the act (which they almost certainly would do), which would result in Russia becoming a world pariah, ultimately resulting in the fall of Putin. If that didn't occur quite rapidly, then the UN security council would seek a mandate (without Russian participation) to provide a conventional response, like destroying the Black Sea fleet or something similar. No chance those countries down there, like China, India, Iran, North Korea, would condemn such an act.
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Post by scfcno1fan on Oct 8, 2022 9:32:56 GMT
It appears that the widely held view, is that if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine, then the worst thing that NATO (well the USA) could do, would be to respond with a nuclear retaliation but rather, they would place pressure on China and India to condemn the act (which they almost certainly would do), which would result in Russia becoming a world pariah, ultimately resulting in the fall of Putin. If that didn't occur quite rapidly, then the UN security council would seek a mandate (without Russian participation) to provide a conventional response, like destroying the Black Sea fleet or something similar. No chance those countries down there, like China, India, Iran, North Korea, would condemn such an act. China and India would. They don’t want to be cut adrift from Western markets.
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Post by mrcoke on Oct 8, 2022 9:49:30 GMT
No concessions, he'll just come back for more He has to not only fail but fail utterly and for that to be seen as such in Moscow, then he's a dead man I'm not sure we actually want Putin killed or deposed unless we know there is a better option. There seems to be plenty of nut jobs mouthing off in the background or worse, the country descends into some sort of anarchy with weapons sold off to the highest bidder. Exactly the point I made on another thread about wishing rid of successive UK prime ministers. It doesn't mean necessarily that things get better, but I was "shouted down". We have seen time and again that when you get rid of a leader it can lead to a worse leader, or worse still a political power vacuum and civil war.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 9:50:17 GMT
It appears that the widely held view, is that if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine, then the worst thing that NATO (well the USA) could do, would be to respond with a nuclear retaliation but rather, they would place pressure on China and India to condemn the act (which they almost certainly would do), which would result in Russia becoming a world pariah, ultimately resulting in the fall of Putin. If that didn't occur quite rapidly, then the UN security council would seek a mandate (without Russian participation) to provide a conventional response, like destroying the Black Sea fleet or something similar. No chance those countries down there, like China, India, Iran, North Korea, would condemn such an act. I don't think China want the rest of the world to get into a nuclear arms race.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 10:09:09 GMT
Plenty of evidence for this sort of crap. The sanctions are screwing Russia's finances and hurting their military.
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Post by raythesailor on Oct 8, 2022 10:56:56 GMT
It’s now being reported that a section of the Crimean Bridge has now collapsed following the train explosion.
My fear is for a Russian Backlash following a humiliation like this.
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Post by lordb on Oct 8, 2022 10:58:14 GMT
It appears that the widely held view, is that if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine, then the worst thing that NATO (well the USA) could do, would be to respond with a nuclear retaliation but rather, they would place pressure on China and India to condemn the act (which they almost certainly would do), which would result in Russia becoming a world pariah, ultimately resulting in the fall of Putin. If that didn't occur quite rapidly, then the UN security council would seek a mandate (without Russian participation) to provide a conventional response, like destroying the Black Sea fleet or something similar. No chance those countries down there, like China, India, Iran, North Korea, would condemn such an act. Think they all would apart from N Korea
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Post by lordb on Oct 8, 2022 10:59:38 GMT
It’s now being reported that a section of the Crimean Bridge has now collapsed following the train explosion. My fear is for a Russian Backlash following a humiliation like this. What with? They have been losing for some time now
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 11:26:23 GMT
It’s now being reported that a section of the Crimean Bridge has now collapsed following the train explosion. My fear is for a Russian Backlash following a humiliation like this. Ukraine already defeated Russia in the north, sank the Russian flagship, forced a retreat from Snake Island, routed an army group in Kharkiv, capturing ~500 vehicles, blew up a Crimean air base, bombed fuel tanks inside Russia, and liberated towns across Luhansk and Kherson regions. Every time so far the Russians pretended it was an accident or promised a backlash then waste expensive missiles blindly bombing civilians. Which brings them closer to defeat. IMO the Ukrainians should keep cutting the rail lines.
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Post by hcstokie on Oct 8, 2022 11:41:03 GMT
It’s now being reported that a section of the Crimean Bridge has now collapsed following the train explosion. My fear is for a Russian Backlash following a humiliation like this. Ukraine already defeated Russia in the north, sank the Russian flagship, forced a retreat from Snake Island, routed an army group in Kharkiv, capturing ~500 vehicles, blew up a Crimean air base, bombed fuel tanks inside Russia, and liberated towns across Luhansk and Kherson regions. Every time so far the Russians pretended it was an accident or promised a backlash then waste expensive missiles blindly bombing civilians. Which brings them closer to defeat. IMO the Ukrainians should keep cutting the rail lines. Correct. The Ukrainians have been cutting the supply routes in the north and if they continue pushing east they will eventually cut the one remaining train line that runs south from Russia. They cut the bridges for the Kherson offensive. In my opinion, taking out this bridge may be a precursor for a third front. If they could attack and push south right between the Kherson and Donbas regions they could effectively cut the Russians in two. The forces at Kherson would have no supply unless the Crimean bridge can be repaired quickly. If they continue pushing east in the north region it would leave Russia having to supply the entire eastern front using roads alone which would be a hell of a task.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 11:52:09 GMT
It’s now being reported that a section of the Crimean Bridge has now collapsed following the train explosion. My fear is for a Russian Backlash following a humiliation like this. Ukraine already defeated Russia in the north, sank the Russian flagship, forced a retreat from Snake Island, routed an army group in Kharkiv, capturing ~500 vehicles, blew up a Crimean air base, bombed fuel tanks inside Russia, and liberated towns across Luhansk and Kherson regions. Every time so far the Russians pretended it was an accident or promised a backlash then waste expensive missiles blindly bombing civilians. Which brings them closer to defeat. IMO the Ukrainians should keep cutting the rail lines. Forgot to say, I'm also not looking forwards to the backlash. I bet they will murder more civilians and that sucks. But they'd do it anyway and cutting the Kerch bridge (if they can keep it cut) will save loads of lives by defeating Russia's army in the south sooner.
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Post by wannabee on Oct 8, 2022 12:03:36 GMT
Plenty of evidence for this sort of crap. The sanctions are screwing Russia's finances and hurting their military. To me it sounds like something out of Dr Strangelove to have an Institute for the Study of War Think-tank I suppose they are unbiased as they can be for an organisation headed by someone embedded in the US Military and funded by Ratheon, General Dynamics, and DynCorp effectively a Branch of the US Government involved in some very nefarious acts like sex trafficking, of minors in Bosnia and a catalogue of other very bad shit They are now known as Amentum
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 12:24:04 GMT
Plenty of evidence for this sort of crap. The sanctions are screwing Russia's finances and hurting their military. To me it sounds like something out of Dr Strangelove to have an Institute for the Study of War Think-tank I suppose they are unbiased as they can be for an organisation headed by someone embedded in the US Military and funded by Ratheon, General Dynamics, and DynCorp effectively a Branch of the US Government involved in some very nefarious acts like sex trafficking, of minors in Bosnia and a catalogue of other very bad shit They are now known as Amentum Very Dr Strangelove! Their Ukraine updates have been reasonably reliable from what I can tell. Loads of videos now of russians complaining. The interesting rumour is that some of them were set up by Wagner group and others - private mercenaries who are trying to make the Ministry of Defence look bad. Impossible to tell how true that is, but there are just too many Telegram and VKontakte posts from long-term users for everything about funding and treatment of conscripts to be bullshit.
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Post by Gods on Oct 8, 2022 12:30:37 GMT
Is the train a supply train to Russian forces? It’s one of the main supply routes for the Russian force in the south. Interesting to find out what the Ukranians used to attack it as no HIMARS system they have has that range I believe. But that was the same for the missile attack on the Crimean Air Force base and I think they used their own sort of missiles for that. They must fancy a run on the Crimea soon with this action. I read the explosion was larger than any missile the Ukraine army is thought to have. Some suggestion that perhaps some explosives were just placed under the bridge and detonated. Magnificent work if that were the case, movie coming up!
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 12:46:15 GMT
It’s one of the main supply routes for the Russian force in the south. Interesting to find out what the Ukranians used to attack it as no HIMARS system they have has that range I believe. But that was the same for the missile attack on the Crimean Air Force base and I think they used their own sort of missiles for that. They must fancy a run on the Crimea soon with this action. I read the explosion was larger than any missile the Ukraine army is thought to have. Some suggestion that perhaps some explosives were just placed under the bridge and detonated. Magnificent work if that were the case, movie coming up! Cockleshell heroes or maybe that one with the midget submarines?
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Post by scfcno1fan on Oct 8, 2022 13:04:06 GMT
Russia investigating a house in southern Russia where the van is from that supposedly exploded.
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Post by marylandstoke on Oct 8, 2022 13:18:15 GMT
Plenty of evidence for this sort of crap. The sanctions are screwing Russia's finances and hurting their military. To me it sounds like something out of Dr Strangelove to have an Institute for the Study of War Think-tank I suppose they are unbiased as they can be for an organisation headed by someone embedded in the US Military and funded by Ratheon, General Dynamics, and DynCorp effectively a Branch of the US Government involved in some very nefarious acts like sex trafficking, of minors in Bosnia and a catalogue of other very bad shit They are now known as Amentum I think Sun Tzu was studying the art of war about 5 BC (approx)
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 8, 2022 13:20:02 GMT
Yeah there’s talk of a drone boat being used.
Not sure that would account for the train as well as the road as it’s really quite high from the water.
Could have been a coordinated attack though.
To get that train seems too precise for it to be luck?
Trip wire on the rail tracks? Missile from a drone? Suicide drone?
And something under the road bridge.
Who knows. But they’ve done good again.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 13:25:24 GMT
Yeah there’s talk of a drone boat being used. Not sure that would account for the train as well as the road as it’s really quite high from the water. Could have been a coordinated attack though. To get that train seems too precise for it to be luck? Trip wire on the rail tracks? Missile from a drone? Suicide drone? And something under the road bridge. Who knows. But they’ve done good again. The explosion looked way bigger than any explosions I've seen from drones. Except when they hit ammo dumps. Let's say it was a lorry bomb. Any engineers here who know if the repairs might be weaker? Could be a bullseye for future drones or missiles.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 8, 2022 13:30:38 GMT
Yeah there’s talk of a drone boat being used. Not sure that would account for the train as well as the road as it’s really quite high from the water. Could have been a coordinated attack though. To get that train seems too precise for it to be luck? Trip wire on the rail tracks? Missile from a drone? Suicide drone? And something under the road bridge. Who knows. But they’ve done good again. The explosion looked way bigger than any explosions I've seen from drones. Except when they hit ammo dumps. Let's say it was a lorry bomb. Any engineers here who know if the repairs might be weaker? Could be a bullseye for future drones or missiles. Indeed that’s why I think it was 2 things. A lorry/boat for the road. And a trip wire/missile for the train. A coordinated attack.
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Post by Gods on Oct 8, 2022 14:04:51 GMT
I wonder what people in Crimea are thinking now. The war just got real for them.
Here come the cavalry? At least we've had peace since our annexation?
Who knows...
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Post by wannabee on Oct 8, 2022 14:53:14 GMT
To me it sounds like something out of Dr Strangelove to have an Institute for the Study of War Think-tank I suppose they are unbiased as they can be for an organisation headed by someone embedded in the US Military and funded by Ratheon, General Dynamics, and DynCorp effectively a Branch of the US Government involved in some very nefarious acts like sex trafficking, of minors in Bosnia and a catalogue of other very bad shit They are now known as Amentum I think Sun Tzu was studying the art of war about 5 BC (approx) Indeed Sun Tzu wrote his seminal work Art of War in 5 BC but its much more than a work on warfare in fact many of the chapters describe methods to avoid war and use subterfuge, spying and spreading disinformation. The strategems he describes have not only been applied in conflict but also in Polotics, Business and even Sports. I doubt the funders of ISW I named would have much use for Sun Tzu's teachings as they have a quite different agenda
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Post by lawrieleslie on Oct 8, 2022 15:24:14 GMT
It’s one of the main supply routes for the Russian force in the south. Interesting to find out what the Ukranians used to attack it as no HIMARS system they have has that range I believe. But that was the same for the missile attack on the Crimean Air Force base and I think they used their own sort of missiles for that. They must fancy a run on the Crimea soon with this action. I read the explosion was larger than any missile the Ukraine army is thought to have. Some suggestion that perhaps some explosives were just placed under the bridge and detonated. Magnificent work if that were the case, movie coming up! Our SAS have been experts in sabotage since their inception in WW2. They have also been training and advising Ukraine SF. This has SAS stamped all over it imo.
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Post by Gods on Oct 8, 2022 16:16:15 GMT
I read the explosion was larger than any missile the Ukraine army is thought to have. Some suggestion that perhaps some explosives were just placed under the bridge and detonated. Magnificent work if that were the case, movie coming up! Our SAS have been experts in sabotage since their inception in WW2. They have also been training and advising Ukraine SF. This has SAS stamped all over it imo. Be excellent if that were the case. If it is Hollywood producers will be queuing up for the rights! Specially if they got away, did they get away, I wonder? I mean what a story :-)
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Post by questionable on Oct 8, 2022 17:21:06 GMT
Russia investigating a house in southern Russia where the van is from that supposedly exploded. Suppose the owner of the house was a woman with a young child who’s now fled the country in a mini??
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Post by questionable on Oct 8, 2022 17:24:43 GMT
I wonder what people in Crimea are thinking now. The war just got real for them. Here come the cavalry? At least we've had peace since our annexation? Who knows... Probably thinking I better F’Off to where I came from and give the houses back to the people they were stole from.
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Post by scfcno1fan on Oct 8, 2022 17:24:53 GMT
Russia investigating a house in southern Russia where the van is from that supposedly exploded. Suppose the owner of the house was a woman with a young child who’s now fled the country in a mini?? Sounds suspicious.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 8, 2022 17:40:11 GMT
I wonder what people in Crimea are thinking now. The war just got real for them. Here come the cavalry? At least we've had peace since our annexation? Who knows... I've seen lots of "no panic" messages from Russian occupation authorities in Crimea. Last time the Russians said that they lost 500 armoured vehicles soon after.
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Post by Gods on Oct 8, 2022 20:03:28 GMT
Bridge reopened to light traffic already I'm afraid.
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