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Post by Veritas on Oct 7, 2022 14:20:33 GMT
I haven't got a lot of time for Macron but somebody has got to try and talk some sense into the mad bastard that is Putin. At the end of the day, this war will end in one of three ways: through dialogue a solution can be found that, even though it might leave a nasty taste in the mouth for one or both, will stop the madness. 2: Somebody bumps off Putin. 3) We end up with a nuclear war. Nobody thought we would ever get peace in N. Ireland but the US managed to get both sides around the table and stopped it. When Kennedy faced down the Soviet Union in 1963, although it wasn't trumpeted by The Media, he had to agree to withdraw nuclear weapons from Turkey to stop WW3. If Putin survives assassination, he will need to save face before a solution is found. Equally, Zelensky may need to be prepared to relinquish some territory to appease the madman. OS. I thought Ukraine might have to surrender Crimea and the bits of Donbas conquered in 2014 but I've changed my mind now. Putin escalated too far and needs to be kicked out of Ukraine. Otherwise the floodgates open all over the world. There will probably have to be some concessions. Putin and his cronies should be sent to the Hague and made to pay to rebuild Ukraine. In exchange for withdrawing we might have to accept that Putin gets to live a free life a bit longer and the only reparations come out of already frozen assets. Ukraine could also do some symbolic things like add some legal protections to the Russian language, agree not to join NATO for 5 years etc. Stuff Putin could sell at home. The Russian language policy is a major issue and one for which Ukraine can be rightly criticised in the run up to the invasion. This gave Putin a fig leaf to hide his expansionist objectives behind concern for repression of the Russian speaking population. Language rights need to be clearly and explicitly protected in law as part of a plan to build trust with the "breakaway regions". The majority of whom I feel will now be more receptive given Putin's promises have blown up in their faces. Crimea I think will be another issue entirely.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Oct 7, 2022 14:44:15 GMT
I haven't got a lot of time for Macron but somebody has got to try and talk some sense into the mad bastard that is Putin. At the end of the day, this war will end in one of three ways: through dialogue a solution can be found that, even though it might leave a nasty taste in the mouth for one or both, will stop the madness. 2: Somebody bumps off Putin. 3) We end up with a nuclear war. Nobody thought we would ever get peace in N. Ireland but the US managed to get both sides around the table and stopped it. When Kennedy faced down the Soviet Union in 1963, although it wasn't trumpeted by The Media, he had to agree to withdraw nuclear weapons from Turkey to stop WW3. If Putin survives assassination, he will need to save face before a solution is found. Equally, Zelensky may need to be prepared to relinquish some territory to appease the madman. OS. I thought Ukraine might have to surrender Crimea and the bits of Donbas conquered in 2014 but I've changed my mind now. Putin escalated too far and needs to be kicked out of Ukraine. Otherwise the floodgates open all over the world. There will probably have to be some concessions. Putin and his cronies should be sent to the Hague and made to pay to rebuild Ukraine. In exchange for withdrawing we might have to accept that Putin gets to live a free life a bit longer and the only reparations come out of already frozen assets. Ukraine could also do some symbolic things like add some legal protections to the Russian language, agree not to join NATO for 5 years etc. Stuff Putin could sell at home. Pretty much identical thinking here too, including the slight change of position. I do still wonder if Crimea is 'available' as a land swap. It's almost a fait accompli anyway, but would it be enough for Putin to justify killing tens of thousands of his own people (let alone Ukrainians) without obtaining any new land in the Donbas? And would the Ukrainians accept it? If it was sold as having successfully de-nazified the area (we know it's bullshit, but it's domestic consumption that matters) and came with guarantees that Ukraine didn't ever join Nato and put off joining the EU for ten years or so and only did so on the back of a national referendum, who knows? Pretty slim pickings but you'd think he must have one eye on his own economy too, which must be heading for deep trouble over the winter and beyond, and want a way out.
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Post by OldStokie on Oct 7, 2022 18:15:21 GMT
I thought Ukraine might have to surrender Crimea and the bits of Donbas conquered in 2014 but I've changed my mind now. Putin escalated too far and needs to be kicked out of Ukraine. Otherwise the floodgates open all over the world. There will probably have to be some concessions. Putin and his cronies should be sent to the Hague and made to pay to rebuild Ukraine. In exchange for withdrawing we might have to accept that Putin gets to live a free life a bit longer and the only reparations come out of already frozen assets. Ukraine could also do some symbolic things like add some legal protections to the Russian language, agree not to join NATO for 5 years etc. Stuff Putin could sell at home. Pretty much identical thinking here too, including the slight change of position. I do still wonder if Crimea is 'available' as a land swap. It's almost a fait accompli anyway, but would it be enough for Putin to justify killing tens of thousands of his own people (let alone Ukrainians) without obtaining any new land in the Donbas? And would the Ukrainians accept it? If it was sold as having successfully de-nazified the area (we know it's bullshit, but it's domestic consumption that matters) and came with guarantees that Ukraine didn't ever join Nato and put off joining the EU for ten years or so and only did so on the back of a national referendum, who knows? Pretty slim pickings but you'd think he must have one eye on his own economy too, which must be heading for deep trouble over the winter and beyond, and want a way out. Re Crimea. One solution could be a Hong Kong type of get-out where the Ukrainians would agree to a lend-lease arrangement for 100 years. Crimea is an important strategic part of Russia's Black Fleet operations. Putin could then tell the world (and his own population) that he's succeeded in his 'Special Operation' which was really about legally making Crimea part of Russia. OS.
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Post by lordb on Oct 7, 2022 18:32:31 GMT
Pretty much identical thinking here too, including the slight change of position. I do still wonder if Crimea is 'available' as a land swap. It's almost a fait accompli anyway, but would it be enough for Putin to justify killing tens of thousands of his own people (let alone Ukrainians) without obtaining any new land in the Donbas? And would the Ukrainians accept it? If it was sold as having successfully de-nazified the area (we know it's bullshit, but it's domestic consumption that matters) and came with guarantees that Ukraine didn't ever join Nato and put off joining the EU for ten years or so and only did so on the back of a national referendum, who knows? Pretty slim pickings but you'd think he must have one eye on his own economy too, which must be heading for deep trouble over the winter and beyond, and want a way out. Re Crimea. One solution could be a Hong Kong type of get-out where the Ukrainians would agree to a lend-lease arrangement for 100 years. Crimea is an important strategic part of Russia's Black Fleet operations. Putin could then tell the world (and his own population) that he's succeeded in his 'Special Operation' which was really about legally making Crimea part of Russia. OS. No concessions, he'll just come back for more He has to not only fail but fail utterly and for that to be seen as such in Moscow, then he's a dead man
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Oct 7, 2022 19:29:25 GMT
Burning effigies of the man on his birthday in Moscow apparently today. He’s nearly as unpopular as Liz Truss
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Post by wannabee on Oct 7, 2022 19:47:11 GMT
I thought Ukraine might have to surrender Crimea and the bits of Donbas conquered in 2014 but I've changed my mind now. Putin escalated too far and needs to be kicked out of Ukraine. Otherwise the floodgates open all over the world. There will probably have to be some concessions. Putin and his cronies should be sent to the Hague and made to pay to rebuild Ukraine. In exchange for withdrawing we might have to accept that Putin gets to live a free life a bit longer and the only reparations come out of already frozen assets. Ukraine could also do some symbolic things like add some legal protections to the Russian language, agree not to join NATO for 5 years etc. Stuff Putin could sell at home. The Russian language policy is a major issue and one for which Ukraine can be rightly criticised in the run up to the invasion. This gave Putin a fig leaf to hide his expansionist objectives behind concern for repression of the Russian speaking population. Language rights need to be clearly and explicitly protected in law as part of a plan to build trust with the "breakaway regions". The majority of whom I feel will now be more receptive given Putin's promises have blown up in their faces. Crimea I think will be another issue entirely. Sometimes Governments don't do relatively simple things for idiotic reasons and then it takes on a life of its own. Similar to Language Act in NI which has dragged on for decades. I totally agree with you about Crimea I doubt Putin (and/or the Generals) would authorise Neuclear Weapons to retain lands in Mainland Ukraine. I think it's quite possible they would if there was a danger of losing Crimea Crimea has been part of Russia since 1783 when they defeated the Ottomans For some obscure reason Khrushchev (a Ukrainian) in 1953 ceded Crimea to UkrSSR from RSFSR obviously within USSR I suspect the Crimean people would prefer to be just left alone, unlikely to happen.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 7, 2022 20:30:10 GMT
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 7, 2022 21:08:12 GMT
Re Crimea. One solution could be a Hong Kong type of get-out where the Ukrainians would agree to a lend-lease arrangement for 100 years. Crimea is an important strategic part of Russia's Black Fleet operations. Putin could then tell the world (and his own population) that he's succeeded in his 'Special Operation' which was really about legally making Crimea part of Russia. OS. No concessions, he'll just come back for more He has to not only fail but fail utterly and for that to be seen as such in Moscow, then he's a dead man I'm not sure we actually want Putin killed or deposed unless we know there is a better option. There seems to be plenty of nut jobs mouthing off in the background or worse, the country descends into some sort of anarchy with weapons sold off to the highest bidder.
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Post by Gods on Oct 7, 2022 21:10:48 GMT
Happy 70th birthday Vladimir Putin you disgusting midget!
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Post by iancransonsknees on Oct 7, 2022 21:12:20 GMT
No concessions, he'll just come back for more He has to not only fail but fail utterly and for that to be seen as such in Moscow, then he's a dead man I'm not sure we actually want Johnson killed or deposed unless we know there is a better option. There seems to be plenty of nut jobs mouthing off in the background or worse, the country descends into some sort of anarchy with everything sold off to the highest bidder.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Oct 7, 2022 22:12:03 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions?
It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place.
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Post by wannabee on Oct 7, 2022 22:33:32 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place. You've answered your own question
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 7, 2022 22:35:09 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place.
It appears that the widely held view, is that if Putin uses tactical nukes in Ukraine, then the worst thing that NATO (well the USA) could do, would be to respond with a nuclear retaliation but rather, they would place pressure on China and India to condemn the act (which they almost certainly would do), which would result in Russia becoming a world pariah, ultimately resulting in the fall of Putin. If that didn't occur quite rapidly, then the UN security council would seek a mandate (without Russian participation) to provide a conventional response, like destroying the Black Sea fleet or something similar.
If Russia were to make a nuclear strike against a NATO member, then the Russians are already under no illusions what the response would be.
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Post by musik on Oct 7, 2022 23:11:03 GMT
Happy 70th birthday Vladimir Putin you disgusting midget! Fantastic. To me he looks twenty years younger. Like he's 50. Amazing!
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Post by musik on Oct 7, 2022 23:13:47 GMT
It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. Not a tiny bit. It would mean the definite end to Mother Earth. Get your cyanide capsule ready.
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Post by musik on Oct 7, 2022 23:16:43 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? In swedish TV they have stated several times,the response will be extremely fast and extremely huge. Noone here wonders what would happen.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Oct 7, 2022 23:34:47 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? In swedish TV they have stated several times,the response will be extremely fast and extremely huge. Noone here wonders what would happen. I'm not so sure Musik. I think it'd be closer to Paul's suggestion, rightly or wrongly. I feel if we would genuinely respond by nuking Russia, Nato and the West would have been quite clear in telling Putin that. More sanctions, more talk and probably, as suggested, pressurising China and India into condemnation would be the outcome. Putin would inevitably deny it was them. Or he will stage an event to justify it.
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Post by Boothen on Oct 8, 2022 5:34:53 GMT
Got a strange feeling that today is going to be a fun day.
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Post by hcstokie on Oct 8, 2022 6:10:36 GMT
Got a strange feeling that today is going to be a fun day. I wonder who was smoking this time?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:19:40 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place. There are a couple of names for what you're suggesting; World War Three Armageddon
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Oct 8, 2022 6:25:40 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place. There are a couple of names for what you're suggesting; World War Three Armageddon Would simply reinforcing that a nuclear response to Russia nuking Ukraine trigger World War Three?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:25:53 GMT
Russia are currently saying that the damage to the Kerch bridge is an accident.
I've not heard what they are saying about the reported drone attack on a Russian airbase that's 200km inside of Russia. The base houses long range nuclear capable bombers.
Anyone think that somebody is sending a message to Putin?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:30:47 GMT
There are a couple of names for what you're suggesting; World War Three Armageddon Would simply reinforcing that a nuclear response to Russia nuking Ukraine trigger World War Three? Russia talks, NATO does. Its always best to keep your powder dry, as it gives you options. Russia has come unstuck by making empty threats. Putin miscalculated the Western response and he knows full well what NATO might do if he continues to poke the Western Bear.
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Post by stokie63 on Oct 8, 2022 6:37:17 GMT
Is the train a supply train to Russian forces?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:57:44 GMT
I doubt that it's a coincidence that there was a train on the bridge at the same time as the incident. Whether the train was specifically targeted or simply a train that arrived after the explosives had been placed is anyone's guess.
I have to admit, my first thought was that it might be carrying the nuclear missile launchers we saw earlier this week.
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Post by questionable on Oct 8, 2022 7:16:03 GMT
I doubt that it's a coincidence that there was a train on the bridge at the same time as the incident. Whether the train was specifically targeted or simply a train that arrived after the explosives had been placed is anyone's guess. I have to admit, my first thought was that it might be carrying the nuclear missile launchers we saw earlier this week. Looking at the collapsed sections of the bridge it looks to straight of a split, I’d say it’s more of Ukraine special operations type mission myself
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Post by scfcno1fan on Oct 8, 2022 7:17:09 GMT
Surely if Ukraine continue to experience the success they have in recent days/weeks, Putin will take more drastic action.
It’s quite obvious he’s not going to make material progress in a conventional manner. The unconventional manner will become the only way for him to progress.
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Oct 8, 2022 7:46:02 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 8, 2022 7:51:53 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place. They have!
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Post by wagsastokie on Oct 8, 2022 7:56:13 GMT
That’s one hell of a stray cigarette
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