|
Post by wagsastokie on Sept 5, 2022 18:36:22 GMT
His plan is to secure his place in history by recovering former territories and putting the west in its place How he achieves that from here is probably occupying his every moment Far more powerful than reclaiming territory, he could send the West under economically without even gaining territory. Maybe that was his plan all along? Maybe the west need to shut the fuck up whinging and grab a blanket or two Women and children are getting raped and murdered Innocent civilians blown to fuck There should be no appeasement no deal until putins murdering thugs are beaten and have left Ukraine If that involves the west sending whatever equipment needed than so be it
|
|
|
Post by scfcbiancorossi on Sept 5, 2022 18:38:44 GMT
Far more powerful than reclaiming territory, he could send the West under economically without even gaining territory. Maybe that was his plan all along? Maybe the west need to shut the fuck up whinging and grab a blanket or two Women and children are getting raped and murdered Innocent civilians blown to fuck There should be no appeasement no deal until putins murdering thugs are beaten and have left Ukraine If that involves the west sending whatever equipment needed than so be it In fairness though mate (and I know we agree on most things), similarly to covid, there is significant misinformation on both sides. Putin is a vile individual but horrors are occurring on both sides. The Russian front line is made up of largely 17/18 year old teenagers. We need a deal or the pain is endless. Not helped by woke extremists like Ellie Goulding, Vogue and Ben Stiller.
|
|
|
Post by wagsastokie on Sept 5, 2022 18:45:34 GMT
Maybe the west need to shut the fuck up whinging and grab a blanket or two Women and children are getting raped and murdered Innocent civilians blown to fuck There should be no appeasement no deal until putins murdering thugs are beaten and have left Ukraine If that involves the west sending whatever equipment needed than so be it In fairness though mate (and I know we agree on most things), similarly to covid, there is significant misinformation on both sides. Putin is a vile individual but horrors are occurring on both sides. The Russian front line is made up of largely 17/18 year old teenagers. We need a deal or the pain is endless. Not helped by woke extremists like Ellie Goulding, Vogue and Ben Stiller. I agree with the comments on the last three individuals / publications they just make me want to puke But I don’t believe that a deal is possible at the moment And must only be considered if and when the majority of the Ukrainian people are willing to except such a deal
|
|
|
Post by lordb on Sept 5, 2022 19:48:40 GMT
His plan is to secure his place in history by recovering former territories and putting the west in its place How he achieves that from here is probably occupying his every moment Far more powerful than reclaiming territory, he could send the West under economically without even gaining territory. Maybe that was his plan all along? No he wants the maps to be redrawn
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Sept 5, 2022 21:57:13 GMT
Putin hasn’t really thought through his plan. He has destroyed all future commercial links with Europe and the West. He has revitalised and enlarged NATO. And for what? I can’t see any deal justifying those geo-strategic disasters. Not to mention the deaths and losses to his own armed forces or the humiliation they have suffered at the hands of NATO backed Ukraine. What a plank. His plan is to secure his place in history by recovering former territories and putting the west in its place How he achieves that from here is probably occupying his every moment I’d say his thoughts of reclaiming any further territories have dissipated with the pounding the Ukrainians have inflicted on him. (Hopefully) at this stage he is looking for a “winning” exit strategy from the quagmire he finds himself in. It’s patently obvious to anyone that without nuclear the Russian armed forces are a 3rd rate ground and pound outfit and not fit to take on western backed forces
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 5, 2022 22:05:24 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 5, 2022 22:06:36 GMT
Putin's plan is clearly to get to winter and have disgruntled western populations calling for a deal. The west on the other hand seem to be aiming to hang the conflict round Russias neck for as long as possible - giving enough resources to bleed Russia whilst not provoking an escalation. Stalemate beckons - eventually a deal is going to have to be hammered out. He’s done Europe a favour. They should never have been a slave to his energy. He’s effectively sanctioned Russia and lost a major customer who won’t go back to him any time soon.
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Sept 5, 2022 22:08:06 GMT
Putin's plan is clearly to get to winter and have disgruntled western populations calling for a deal. The west on the other hand seem to be aiming to hang the conflict round Russias neck for as long as possible - giving enough resources to bleed Russia whilst not provoking an escalation. Stalemate beckons - eventually a deal is going to have to be hammered out. He’s done Europe a favour. They should never have been a slave to his energy. He’s effectively sanctioned Russia and lost a major customer who won’t go back to him any time soon. Easily replaced by Chinese, Indian and other customers though
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 5, 2022 22:10:36 GMT
He’s done Europe a favour. They should never have been a slave to his energy. He’s effectively sanctioned Russia and lost a major customer who won’t go back to him any time soon. Easily replaced by Chinese, Indian and other customers though Not to the same value. They will lose massive amounts of money. And the sanctions are hitting. Like the one banning them from coming to Europe. The whining over that showed it works. They want access to our systems. Deny them the cultural benefits of the west and it will have impact. As well the economic harm they are going through. The sanctions have all but stopped their defence industry too as they relied on foreign parts.
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Sept 5, 2022 22:18:16 GMT
Easily replaced by Chinese, Indian and other customers though Not to the same value. They will lose massive amounts of money. And the sanctions are hitting. Like the one banning them from coming to Europe. The whining over that showed it works. They want access to our systems. Deny them the cultural benefits of the west and it will have impact. As well the economic harm they are going through. The sanctions have all but stopped their defence industry too as they relied on foreign parts. Chinese, Indian et al will easily compensate for downturn in European orders. Agree the sanctions will eventually impact on them but the if the Chinese step in then they can regain access to parts/technology etc. I think banning all Russians visitors (with no exceptions) would be a huge kick in the nuts (after initially thinking it was a stupid idea) but we’ll see how far that gets
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 5, 2022 22:21:26 GMT
Not to the same value. They will lose massive amounts of money. And the sanctions are hitting. Like the one banning them from coming to Europe. The whining over that showed it works. They want access to our systems. Deny them the cultural benefits of the west and it will have impact. As well the economic harm they are going through. The sanctions have all but stopped their defence industry too as they relied on foreign parts. Chinese, Indian et al will easily compensate for downturn in European orders. Agree the sanctions will eventually impact on them but the if the Chinese step in then they can regain access to parts/technology etc. I think banning all Russians visitors (with no exceptions) would be a huge kick in the nuts (after initially thinking it was a stupid idea) but we’ll see how far that gets They’re already selling it to them cheaper. I’m not sure they will. Russia being weak benefits them. They will leave them to it. We should absolutely do it. They want access to our systems. They should be denied that. They threatened Europe with nukes when it was mentioned tourist visas would be banned. The reaction you want to see.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 6, 2022 5:56:30 GMT
Re China helping them.
So far this is the best Russia can do:
|
|
|
Post by partickpotter on Sept 6, 2022 5:59:51 GMT
Easily replaced by Chinese, Indian and other customers though Not to the same value. They will lose massive amounts of money. And the sanctions are hitting. Like the one banning them from coming to Europe. The whining over that showed it works. They want access to our systems. Deny them the cultural benefits of the west and it will have impact. As well the economic harm they are going through. The sanctions have all but stopped their defence industry too as they relied on foreign parts. Spot on. Of course Putin will find other customers for his gas… just two problems; one he needs to build new pipelines which is not trivial and second he won’t get as much money from them as he got from the West. So, much more cost and much less revenue. That probably doesn’t count for much in socialist economics, but then again, there’s a reason the USSR collapsed in 1989. The other sanctions will hit very hard. Particularly access to western technology. As you say, their energy and defence industries (and others) are built on western technology. When this war comes to a conclusion, the West will be in a far stronger position than before hand with a revitalised NATO and no dependency on Russian energy imports. Russia meanwhile is massively diminished.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 6, 2022 6:35:21 GMT
Not to the same value. They will lose massive amounts of money. And the sanctions are hitting. Like the one banning them from coming to Europe. The whining over that showed it works. They want access to our systems. Deny them the cultural benefits of the west and it will have impact. As well the economic harm they are going through. The sanctions have all but stopped their defence industry too as they relied on foreign parts. Spot on. Of course Putin will find other customers for his gas… just two problems; one he needs to build new pipelines which is not trivial and second he won’t get as much money from them as he got from the West. So, much more cost and much less revenue. That probably doesn’t count for much in socialist economics, but then again, there’s a reason the USSR collapsed in 1989. The other sanctions will hit very hard. Particularly access to western technology. As you say, their energy and defence industries (and others) are built on western technology. When this war comes to a conclusion, the West will be in a far stronger position than before hand with a revitalised NATO and no dependency on Russian energy imports. Russia meanwhile is massively diminished. Yeah that’s the way I see it. Russia has been massively overhyped as a military force and I hope the same in the end will play out with energy. In the long run they should have done us all a favour.
|
|
|
Post by partickpotter on Sept 6, 2022 7:44:50 GMT
Who’s laughing now…
Trump was a fud. No doubt.
But he got this right.
Be interesting to hear the views of that smug looking German delegation today.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2022 10:39:23 GMT
What counts as sanctions working or not working? Russia refuses to negotiate. Ukraine has been incredibly generous by only asking them to withdraw to the lines on 23rd Feb instead of fucking off out of the entire country they invaded I guess not working can be defined as the Russian rouble staying strong, Russia showing zero sign of retreating, the economy of Europe in chaos, the prospect of a winter without fuel and electricity, a war that is as endless as its ever been... To name a few. A better question would be, what makes you think our current strategy is working? I'm not sure about the rouble. If you think that strong currency = good then would you also think that Brexit = bad because it made the pound go down by a lot? I doubt it. And the difference between the rouble and the pound is that the pound is freely traded, the rouble rate is faked. I want democracy & freedom to win as much as possible. Complete victory would be Putin kicked 100% out of Ukraine and western countries getting back to economic growth with pro-democracy and pro-freedom leaders (e.g. not Trump, not Le Pen, not Salvini) staying in power. Unfortunately the world sucks and sometimes there are costs to pay. Russian propaganda is desperate to stop sanctions and Russia is turning to older and shittier equipment so the sanctions are clearly hurting. Selling them accurate gyroscopes so they can make modern cruise missiles to destroy Ukrainian air bases would obviously help Russia. I think it was pretty obvious that the pain for the West happens now and then fades away while the pain for Russia builds and builds. We have to pay expensive gas prices for a winter until we get new contracts in for next year. Russia is wearing out its machinery and it can't replace it as easily. Biden and European leaders are probably thinking strategically like this, but they have a tough time since they know plenty of voters will be happy to cave to Putin. They're in a tough position but they already helped save Kyiv and if the pro-democracy West holds through next winter then Russia's fucked.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2022 10:49:20 GMT
Not to the same value. They will lose massive amounts of money. And the sanctions are hitting. Like the one banning them from coming to Europe. The whining over that showed it works. They want access to our systems. Deny them the cultural benefits of the west and it will have impact. As well the economic harm they are going through. The sanctions have all but stopped their defence industry too as they relied on foreign parts. Chinese, Indian et al will easily compensate for downturn in European orders. Agree the sanctions will eventually impact on them but the if the Chinese step in then they can regain access to parts/technology etc. I think banning all Russians visitors (with no exceptions) would be a huge kick in the nuts (after initially thinking it was a stupid idea) but we’ll see how far that gets I wonder about the visa ban. It's Russians spending money outside Russia and potentially escaping - Russians have booked holidays to get out then just not gone back. But they could still do that via Turkey or Georgia so prob not a big deal. Re oil and gas, Russia doesn't have the same pipelines to India/China, shipping is more expensive, and Russia is desperate so selling at a discount. We could also fuck with Russia through insurance costs etc. Urals crude is now discounted by $24/barrel versus Brent. Again, I think Russia is burning through its resources now to try and look strong and persuade the West to cave. Even with the temporary money spike earlier in the year, they've bled tens of billions of dollars in reserves ( source). It'll get worse for them as the oil and gas income shrinks rapidly by next spring.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2022 11:31:04 GMT
Ukrainian flag raised over Vyssokopilia, Kherson region. Only a small village (~4k people) but one of at least 6 that were liberated in the past week. The Russians have "paused" their plan for a fake referendum in Kherson to force it to join Russia, so the Ukrainians already have one big victory. I just desperately hope they're losing as few Ukrainian soldiers as possible.
|
|
|
Post by noustie on Sept 6, 2022 12:13:25 GMT
www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-contract-29-2022-economy-minister-2022-09-06/Sept 6 (Reuters) - Russia's economy will post a shallower economic contraction than expected over the coming years and could return to growth on a quarterly basis from as early as the end of 2022, a top government official said on Tuesday.www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/29/did-sanctions-really-hurt-the-russian-economyThere are two important factors that could potentially work in Russia’s favour, according to Chris Devonshire-Ellis, founder of Dezan Shira & Associates, a pan-Asian investment consulting firm.
The first is that Moscow possesses many of the natural resources that are critical to the broader global economy. “When you look at Russia, it has the first, second and third highest reserves globally of practically everything,” he said. “From energy to diamonds, to fresh water, to rare earths and other minerals, it’s an extremely rich country.”
And despite its current estrangement from the West, the Kremlin was far from being geopolitically isolated, Devonshire-Ellis said. “Russia has some powerful friends, such as China, India, and Iran, and some increasingly powerful acquaintances, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Brazil, and much of Africa,” he said. “On balance, therefore, I suspect that Russia will prevail.”It looks likely that the success or failure of the sanctions will be down to what China does. There seems a degree of arrogance in all this that Russia simply can't survive without the West but ignores the other markets open to them as noted above - 92% of microchips come from Taiwan so as long as China are cosy with Russia can't really see supply of those being an issue.
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Sept 6, 2022 12:49:10 GMT
Re China helping them. So far this is the best Russia can do: North Korean rockets 🚀 They’ll kill more Russians than Ukrainians 🤣🤣🤣
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2022 13:11:59 GMT
It looks likely that the success or failure of the sanctions will be down to what China does. There seems a degree of arrogance in all this that Russia simply can't survive without the West but ignores the other markets open to them as noted above - 92% of microchips come from Taiwan so as long as China are cosy with Russia can't really see supply of those being an issue. Reports generally say Chinese companies aren't properly supplying Russia because they're scared of losing EU/US markets that give them 1000%+ more money. Also, if you're China then why not just let Russia weaken then buy the bits you want on the cheap? Taiwan isn't a direct line for microchips to Moscow either. The crap that's appearing on the front lines in Ukraine and the claims they're begging North fucking Korea for artillery ammo says they're struggling. Not that I know for sure of course! Bloomberg claims to have confirmed leaked documents with multiple Russian sources that say they expect a properly shitty decade economically, despite what they say publicly. Fwiw I think Russia will still be able to get some equipment, but they'll end up paying a big markup on imports and accepting discounts for their exports. Wars are bloody expensive so basically they'll still be around and pumping out 152 mm artillery shells but also falling further and further behind the rest of the world.
|
|
|
Post by partickpotter on Sept 6, 2022 13:22:10 GMT
www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-contract-29-2022-economy-minister-2022-09-06/Sept 6 (Reuters) - Russia's economy will post a shallower economic contraction than expected over the coming years and could return to growth on a quarterly basis from as early as the end of 2022, a top government official said on Tuesday.www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/29/did-sanctions-really-hurt-the-russian-economyThere are two important factors that could potentially work in Russia’s favour, according to Chris Devonshire-Ellis, founder of Dezan Shira & Associates, a pan-Asian investment consulting firm.
The first is that Moscow possesses many of the natural resources that are critical to the broader global economy. “When you look at Russia, it has the first, second and third highest reserves globally of practically everything,” he said. “From energy to diamonds, to fresh water, to rare earths and other minerals, it’s an extremely rich country.”
And despite its current estrangement from the West, the Kremlin was far from being geopolitically isolated, Devonshire-Ellis said. “Russia has some powerful friends, such as China, India, and Iran, and some increasingly powerful acquaintances, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Brazil, and much of Africa,” he said. “On balance, therefore, I suspect that Russia will prevail.”It looks likely that the success or failure of the sanctions will be down to what China does. There seems a degree of arrogance in all this that Russia simply can't survive without the West but ignores the other markets open to them as noted above - 92% of microchips come from Taiwan so as long as China are cosy with Russia can't really see supply of those being an issue. There is no doubt Russia will pivot to Asia, but, as noted earlier this will cost them a bunch, generate much less revenue and take a long time to get up and running. And that’s the best case scenario. A worst case is they will be unable to pivot to any meaningful level for a whole stack of reasons not the least of which is a lack of access to critical western technology. And add to that China being concerned about repeating Germany’s strategic balls up in creating a dependency on Russia. This very good article looks at this in detail… Can Russia Execute a Gas Pivot to Asia?
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2022 14:46:58 GMT
The rumours going round now are crazy, that Ukraine also launched surprise counterattacks near Kharkiv (northeast) and in Soledar (east).
Just seen video of Ukrainian soldiers entering Balakliya near Kharkiv. Town of 26k occupied by Russians back in March, would be a big deal if liberated.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 6, 2022 15:40:18 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 6, 2022 18:34:29 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 6, 2022 20:37:46 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Sept 6, 2022 20:48:13 GMT
How do you know which ones real and which ones fake though
|
|
|
Post by yeswilko on Sept 6, 2022 21:01:13 GMT
How do you know which ones real and which ones fake though 😂😂
|
|
|
Post by hcstokie on Sept 7, 2022 6:34:32 GMT
The rumours going round now are crazy, that Ukraine also launched surprise counterattacks near Kharkiv (northeast) and in Soledar (east). Just seen video of Ukrainian soldiers entering Balakliya near Kharkiv. Town of 26k occupied by Russians back in March, would be a big deal if liberated. Some good analysis on YouTube of the current offensive. It appears Ukraine are probing in 3-4 areas around Kherson with a view to forcing Russia to commit a reserve to 1-2 of them. Once this happens the main attack towards the city will take place via the other routes which should meet with less resistance. In the North there’s been some gains in the Donbas including the Ukrainians taking a bridge and pushing north. It’s thought this is an attack of opportunity as the Russians have been forced to divert troops to Kherson. The Kharkiv offensive is pushing east and a second push is occurring to the south. The objective here is to cut the road between Belgorod and Izium with the ultimate aim of taking back Izium. This is the main supply route for the Russian eastern front so would be a huge victory if Ukraine achieve it. I think it’s become more apparent that Russia are having a nightmare trying to control the vast swathes of territory it’s already taken. Reports of partisan activity has increased too which will make it even tougher for them.
|
|
|
Post by noustie on Sept 7, 2022 10:27:37 GMT
China to pay in Roubles and Yaun for Russian gas further suggests the way they're tilting towards: www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/9/6/china-agrees-to-pay-for-russian-gazprom-gas-in-rubles-and-yuanRussia’s energy giant Gazprom says it has signed an agreement with China to start payments for gas supplies to China in yuan and roubles instead of US dollars, in a sign of warming relations between Beijing and Moscow, which is under Western sanctions.....
.....The energy giant said gas from the under-developed Kovykta field will start flowing through the Power of Siberia pipeline “before the end of the year”, allowing for the “increase [in] the volume of gas deliveries to China in 2023”.The Euro hit a twenty year low because unsurprisingly Russia have turned the gas off, the pounds fucked too even with a new PM going in you'd assume would give some initial stability but the economies of China, Russia and our bezzy mate US seem to be doing orate. Genuinely what the absolute fuck is going on?
|
|