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Post by mtrstudent on Jun 4, 2022 0:32:18 GMT
Do you mean you think he'll take the whole country? How do you think he'd do it and how long would it take? Since the first rush, his army hasn't had a single successful attack more than ~70 km from a controlled railway station. Putin already holds one fifth of Ukraine and if he cuts off the Black Sea the games up. By "cut off the Black Sea" do you mean just blockade it like now, or take over the cities too? I'm worried about western support waning and Ukrainian losses, there's just too much fog of war to know which side is losing more soldiers but I can't see how Russia can go for the cities any time soon. Videos show they're rushing BMP-1s and T-62s to Kherson so it'd surprise me if they could even do a half assed attack on Mykolaiv now, never mind Odesa.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jun 4, 2022 0:52:34 GMT
I don't think the west has lost interest Gods , you can bet we are proper analysing every aspect and have most of our nuclear arsenal pointing straight at them I think it has. The UK and the USA have done okay but it has been a shameful effort from France, Italy, Spain, Netheralands, Belgium, the Nordics you name it, absolutely fuck all. And from Europes largest economy, Germany, nothing, except a few helmets. The story is now relegated on the news to somewhere between Collen Rooney and the French Open tennis! The Netherlands have sent 1 in 8 of their modern self-propelled guns (SPGs). Norway has sent a ~third of its Paladin SPGs. Denmark is sending 50 APCs, 25 drones, plus Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Sweden sent 5,000 anti-tank missiles plus other equipment. The Ukrainian soldiers in videos seem to like the Carl Gustaf. France, Germany and Italy are sending artillery and other kit too. By end of June they'll have been given 120+ NATO howitzers and 50+ NATO SPGs and German suppliers are directly sending them shells now as well. I think we're now at a fork in the road. It didn't make sense to send a lot of equipment earlier because Western Europe just didn't have much ready to go and the Ukrainians couldn't use it. Now the training courses are finishing so it's time to ramp up the factories.
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Post by partickpotter on Jun 4, 2022 4:50:03 GMT
I think it has. The UK and the USA have done okay but it has been a shameful effort from France, Italy, Spain, Netheralands, Belgium, the Nordics you name it, absolutely fuck all. And from Europes largest economy, Germany, nothing, except a few helmets. The story is now relegated on the news to somewhere between Collen Rooney and the French Open tennis! The Netherlands have sent 1 in 8 of their modern self-propelled guns (SPGs). Norway has sent a ~third of its Paladin SPGs. Denmark is sending 50 APCs, 25 drones, plus Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Sweden sent 5,000 anti-tank missiles plus other equipment. The Ukrainian soldiers in videos seem to like the Carl Gustaf. France, Germany and Italy are sending artillery and other kit too. By end of June they'll have been given 120+ NATO howitzers and 50+ NATO SPGs and German suppliers are directly sending them shells now as well. I think we're now at a fork in the road. It didn't make sense to send a lot of equipment earlier because Western Europe just didn't have much ready to go and the Ukrainians couldn't use it. Now the training courses are finishing so it's time to ramp up the factories.
It’s not clear what Putin’s end game is. I suspect he’d be happy to see a stasis develop which would give him the time to consolidate his gains. Time is also on his side in that the western democracies will find something else that gets their attention - more important issues like Boris Johnson’s birthday cake, the size of Peter Andre’s penis or will Rafa win yet another French Open. So a vague sort of peace descends on Ukraine - but a Russian sort of peace. Meaning one of immense darkness. But nothing so massive or obvious that will mean the West bothers to get out of bed for.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jun 4, 2022 5:46:01 GMT
That's a scary thought Partick. We can still give Ukraine what they need to win - I think it depends on western leaders and American voters though.
There's a lot of noise about Ukraine getting equipment this month and next. They might have a chance to launch a proper offensive if their mobilisation truly does give them 100-200k new soldiers like they hinted at.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jun 4, 2022 6:00:10 GMT
That's a scary thought Partick. We can still give Ukraine what they need to win - I think it depends on western leaders and American voters though. There's a lot of noise about Ukraine getting equipment this month and next. They might have a chance to launch a proper offensive if their mobilisation truly does give them 100-200k new soldiers like they hinted at. There’s also another - albeit very cynical - school of thought that a long protracted war weakens Russia long term, and that sending enough weapons to Ukraine to force a relative stalemate but not enough to push back or defeat Russia is good for the West, if not for the people of Ukraine. I rule nothing out when it comes to geopolitics…….
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Post by lordb on Jun 4, 2022 7:28:54 GMT
There is no Russian peace An end to the hostilities is merely a break, even if its a year or five, before they come back for more. The only end is an exhausted Russia leaves all of Ukraine of its own accord as it did in Afghanistan with its appetites at home reigned in
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Post by lordb on Jun 4, 2022 7:29:35 GMT
I don't think the west has lost interest Gods , you can bet we are proper analysing every aspect and have most of our nuclear arsenal pointing straight at them I think it has. The UK and the USA have done okay but it has been a shameful effort from France, Italy, Spain, Netheralands, Belgium, the Nordics you name it, absolutely fuck all. And from Europes largest economy, Germany, nothing, except a few helmets. The story is now relegated on the news to somewhere between Collen Rooney and the French Open tennis! Absolute rubbish Gods
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Post by Gods on Jun 4, 2022 8:36:37 GMT
I think it has. The UK and the USA have done okay but it has been a shameful effort from France, Italy, Spain, Netheralands, Belgium, the Nordics you name it, absolutely fuck all. And from Europes largest economy, Germany, nothing, except a few helmets. The story is now relegated on the news to somewhere between Collen Rooney and the French Open tennis! The Netherlands have sent 1 in 8 of their modern self-propelled guns (SPGs). Norway has sent a ~third of its Paladin SPGs. Denmark is sending 50 APCs, 25 drones, plus Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Sweden sent 5,000 anti-tank missiles plus other equipment. The Ukrainian soldiers in videos seem to like the Carl Gustaf. France, Germany and Italy are sending artillery and other kit too. By end of June they'll have been given 120+ NATO howitzers and 50+ NATO SPGs and German suppliers are directly sending them shells now as well. I think we're now at a fork in the road. It didn't make sense to send a lot of equipment earlier because Western Europe just didn't have much ready to go and the Ukrainians couldn't use it. Now the training courses are finishing so it's time to ramp up the factories.
You're clearly better informed than me but just to add they were saying on the news last night while showing that map which has Russian red all down the east border and most of the way along the south border except for pretty much Odessa which at some point will get the full Mariopol treatment that it will then be increasingly difficult to ship arms even if the will were there. Try as I might I don't see any happy ending.
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Post by Gods on Jun 4, 2022 8:43:22 GMT
There is no Russian peace An end to the hostilities is merely a break, even if its a year or five, before they come back for more. The only end is an exhausted Russia leaves all of Ukraine of its own accord as it did in Afghanistan with its appetites at home reigned in I don't get comparisons with Afghanistan. Ukrainians look the same as Russians, very often speak Russian and were a part of the Soviet Union as recently as the 1990's. Its very different to fighting the Mujahideen in the Afghan mountains. Its more of an upscale Crimea job where no one in the west batted an eye lid.
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Post by lordb on Jun 4, 2022 10:53:36 GMT
There is no Russian peace An end to the hostilities is merely a break, even if its a year or five, before they come back for more. The only end is an exhausted Russia leaves all of Ukraine of its own accord as it did in Afghanistan with its appetites at home reigned in I don't get comparisons with Afghanistan. Ukrainians look the same as Russians, very often speak Russian and were a part of the Soviet Union as recently as the 1990's. Its very different to fighting the Mujahideen in the Afghan mountains. Its more of an upscale Crimea job where no one in the west batted an eye lid. The comparison being it's a war they can't win outright, they are already bogged down If they are there for the long haul, as seems likely atm, eventually like Afghanistan they go home having exhausted lives and resources for very little Putin obviously expected they would have defeated Kyev by May, ousted Zelenskyset up a puppet regime and essentially annexed Donbas all to great acclaim at home with the west in disarray and the Chinese impressed Not gone right for him
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Post by Gods on Jun 4, 2022 12:36:25 GMT
I don't get comparisons with Afghanistan. Ukrainians look the same as Russians, very often speak Russian and were a part of the Soviet Union as recently as the 1990's. Its very different to fighting the Mujahideen in the Afghan mountains. Its more of an upscale Crimea job where no one in the west batted an eye lid. The comparison being it's a war they can't win outright, they are already bogged down If they are there for the long haul, as seems likely atm, eventually like Afghanistan they go home having exhausted lives and resources for very little Putin obviously expected they would have defeated Kyev by May, ousted Zelenskyset up a puppet regime and essentially annexed Donbas all to great acclaim at home with the west in disarray and the Chinese impressed Not gone right for him Yes its not gone to plan but isn’t that exactly the kind of complacency Putin is betting on from the West and Zelenski is desperately trying to head off?
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Post by somersetstokie on Jun 4, 2022 13:30:33 GMT
I hate to say it but I think it is inevitable Russia will win unless the west help out properly as in get involved. But the opposite is happening, the west has lost interest. Putin will take Ukraine. That is very much what I have been thinking for the last 2 weeks Gods. The war is still there and I am sure that there is a lot of activity going on in the background that we don't hear about. But for the moment the initial international shock and outrage, especially amongst the general public, has passed on and the window of public "attention span" has closed. The western governments are no longer under such intense pressure from their respective electorates to "do something" and be seen to be doing something. So the war just rumbles on in the background, with piecemeal and seemingly uncoordinated support responses from the West. Meanwhile Russia seems to have seized the initiative and are pushing on strongly, and at the moment are "winning" with Ukraine being unable to offer any effective answers. It could be nearly all over bar the shouting.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 4, 2022 15:42:42 GMT
It’s a shame Macron was up against an actual Nazi because he’s absolutely fucking shit.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 4, 2022 15:45:29 GMT
I hate to say it but I think it is inevitable Russia will win unless the west help out properly as in get involved. But the opposite is happening, the west has lost interest. Putin will take Ukraine. That is very much what I have been thinking for the last 2 weeks Gods. The war is still there and I am sure that there is a lot of activity going on in the background that we don't here about. But for the moment the initial international shock and outrage, especially amongst the general public, has passed on and the window of public "attention span" has closed. The western governments are no longer under such intense pressure from their respective electorates to "do something" and be seen to be doing something. So the war just rumbles on in the background, with piecemeal and seemingly uncoordinated support responses from the West. Meanwhile Russia seems to have seized the initiative and are pushing on strongly, and at the moment are "winning" with Ukraine being unable to offer any effective answers. It could be nearly all over bar the shouting. Again they failed in their first objectives. They’re now going for even smaller objectives. And they’re just about getting them done. But it’s taken them a month to get where they are now with it. And even then:
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 4, 2022 15:50:36 GMT
There is no Russian peace An end to the hostilities is merely a break, even if its a year or five, before they come back for more. The only end is an exhausted Russia leaves all of Ukraine of its own accord as it did in Afghanistan with its appetites at home reigned in I don't get comparisons with Afghanistan. Ukrainians look the same as Russians, very often speak Russian and were a part of the Soviet Union as recently as the 1990's. Its very different to fighting the Mujahideen in the Afghan mountains. Its more of an upscale Crimea job where no one in the west batted an eye lid. They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal.
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Post by Gods on Jun 4, 2022 16:24:55 GMT
I hate to say it but I think it is inevitable Russia will win unless the west help out properly as in get involved. But the opposite is happening, the west has lost interest. Putin will take Ukraine. That is very much what I have been thinking for the last 2 weeks Gods. The war is still there and I am sure that there is a lot of activity going on in the background that we don't here about. But for the moment the initial international shock and outrage, especially amongst the general public, has passed on and the window of public "attention span" has closed. The western governments are no longer under such intense pressure from their respective electorates to "do something" and be seen to be doing something. So the war just rumbles on in the background, with piecemeal and seemingly uncoordinated support responses from the West. Meanwhile Russia seems to have seized the initiative and are pushing on strongly, and at the moment are "winning" with Ukraine being unable to offer any effective answers. It could be nearly all over bar the shouting. I know, this was always the danger, this hideous invasion has turned in to elevator music. It now sits somewhere in the national psyche behind 'I can't believe the price of a loaf of bread' and 'woe is me my flight to Faro has been delayed'.
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Post by Gods on Jun 4, 2022 16:30:15 GMT
I don't get comparisons with Afghanistan. Ukrainians look the same as Russians, very often speak Russian and were a part of the Soviet Union as recently as the 1990's. Its very different to fighting the Mujahideen in the Afghan mountains. Its more of an upscale Crimea job where no one in the west batted an eye lid. They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal. I hope you are right but I just look at this and don't like what I see. I mean they may be able to delay the Russians but they will never get the bastards out of these red areas. They simply don't have the trained forces nor the weaponry to do it so far as I can see.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jun 4, 2022 16:48:47 GMT
The Netherlands have sent 1 in 8 of their modern self-propelled guns (SPGs). Norway has sent a ~third of its Paladin SPGs. Denmark is sending 50 APCs, 25 drones, plus Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Sweden sent 5,000 anti-tank missiles plus other equipment. The Ukrainian soldiers in videos seem to like the Carl Gustaf. France, Germany and Italy are sending artillery and other kit too. By end of June they'll have been given 120+ NATO howitzers and 50+ NATO SPGs and German suppliers are directly sending them shells now as well. I think we're now at a fork in the road. It didn't make sense to send a lot of equipment earlier because Western Europe just didn't have much ready to go and the Ukrainians couldn't use it. Now the training courses are finishing so it's time to ramp up the factories.
You're clearly better informed than me but just to add they were saying on the news last night while showing that map which has Russian red all down the east border and most of the way along the south border except for pretty much Odessa which at some point will get the full Mariopol treatment that it will then be increasingly difficult to ship arms even if the will were there. Try as I might I don't see any happy ending. I don't think I've got much of a clue about military stuff tbh! Really confident people are all saying different things and the map looks bad, but almost everything in the south happened in month 1 when the Russians had surprise and could launch dozens of cruise missiles a day. Tweet below shows that Russia's current speed won't get the Donbas until at least 2023 and that's using almost their entire army and Donbas conscripts. At the current rate, Russia will also have lost half of all its tanks by 2023 while the Ukrainians have about $10 billion to go on a shopping spree with. I know I don't know much about this but right now I'd bet that Russia will control a lot less than 40% of Ukraine by Christmas.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 4, 2022 17:03:49 GMT
They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal. I hope you are right but I just look at this and don't like what I see. I mean they may be able to delay the Russians but they will never get the bastards out of these red areas. They simply don't have the trained forces nor the weaponry to do it so far as I can see. Yeah it’s not great but they’ve been defeated in Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, why not here eventually? They’re using all their might to take a tiny area and still struggling.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jun 4, 2022 17:08:25 GMT
You're clearly better informed than me but just to add they were saying on the news last night while showing that map which has Russian red all down the east border and most of the way along the south border except for pretty much Odessa which at some point will get the full Mariopol treatment that it will then be increasingly difficult to ship arms even if the will were there. Try as I might I don't see any happy ending. Oh and getting "the Mariupol treatment". I think it's different. Mariupol is 30 miles from the Russian border and was surrounded in the initial surprise when Ukraine was overwhelmed. Before Odesa there's Mykolaiv, which has a deep ocean inlet protecting its flank. Ukrainian guns could sit on the other side and the Russians are already acting like they're low on precision ammo which means to get them they'd be flying low through Stinger and Starstreak fire. The Russian air force tried hitting lots of places outside Donbas earlier in the war and stopped after losing 9 jets and helicopters in a day. Mykolaiv is about as big as Mariupol btw. So it'd be like doing a Mariupol where the Ukrainians are prepared with more soldiers, ammo, and artillery support. After Mykolaiv they'd need to cross the ocean inlet or go wide around it, all within range of Ukrainian artillery. Maybe Russia will get more competent or the defenders will collapse, but going up the coast just doesn't seem like something Russia could even consider this year. It probably depends on whether we keep sending weapons & ammo and whether Russia mobilises.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 4, 2022 17:44:15 GMT
Some of the kit Norway have sent:
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Post by questionable on Jun 4, 2022 20:24:01 GMT
Some of the kit Norway have sent: Every round of ammunition that maims/kills Russians is a plus to me.
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Post by lordb on Jun 4, 2022 20:32:01 GMT
The comparison being it's a war they can't win outright, they are already bogged down If they are there for the long haul, as seems likely atm, eventually like Afghanistan they go home having exhausted lives and resources for very little Putin obviously expected they would have defeated Kyev by May, ousted Zelenskyset up a puppet regime and essentially annexed Donbas all to great acclaim at home with the west in disarray and the Chinese impressed Not gone right for him Yes its not gone to plan but isn’t that exactly the kind of complacency Putin is betting on from the West and Zelenski is desperately trying to head off? I don't understand that? The West, all of it not just USand UK are arming the Ukrainians to levels Putin couldn't possibly have considered in his worst case scenarios
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Post by lordb on Jun 4, 2022 20:37:02 GMT
I don't get comparisons with Afghanistan. Ukrainians look the same as Russians, very often speak Russian and were a part of the Soviet Union as recently as the 1990's. Its very different to fighting the Mujahideen in the Afghan mountains. Its more of an upscale Crimea job where no one in the west batted an eye lid. They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal. The smaller nations have really rallied round though I think that's a harsh assessment of Germany anyway, they have had 70 years of Ostpolitik and a non military ideology has become Germany identity To go from that to the measures they have taken and more importantly the words that right across German politics (even the greens) have said is astonishing. Putin has pushed Europe but especially Germany so far away from their influence its an enormous own goal by Russia The French.. meh
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Post by lordb on Jun 4, 2022 20:38:22 GMT
They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal. I hope you are right but I just look at this and don't like what I see. I mean they may be able to delay the Russians but they will never get the bastards out of these red areas. They simply don't have the trained forces nor the weaponry to do it so far as I can see. They don't need to get them out by force, the Russians will leave eventually of their own accord Will be a long haul
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Post by somersetstokie on Jun 4, 2022 20:52:22 GMT
They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal. The smaller nations have really rallied round though I think that's a harsh assessment of Germany anyway, they have had 70 years of Ostpolitik and a non military ideology has become Germany identity To go from that to the measures they have taken and more importantly the words that right across German politics (even the greens) have said is astonishing. Putin has pushed Europe but especially Germany so far away from their influence its an enormous own goal by Russia The French.. meh The French have always been the same with regard to International crises and exhibit a tendancy to sit on the fence. They like to appear to be strong whilst in reality dithering and actually doing very little. During the first Gulf war to liberate Kuwait, the Western powers rallied around to create an armed coalition, with forces contributions. The French symbolically sent an Aircraft Carrier, but didn't put any aircraft on it. Also who can forget the Falklands conflict, when the French happily armed the Argentinians, supplying them with both Super Etendard warplanes and Exocet missiles.
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Post by Gods on Jun 4, 2022 20:54:15 GMT
I hope you are right but I just look at this and don't like what I see. I mean they may be able to delay the Russians but they will never get the bastards out of these red areas. They simply don't have the trained forces nor the weaponry to do it so far as I can see. They don't need to get them out by force, the Russians will leave eventually of their own accord Will be a long haul Well, they are still to piss off out of Crimea, 2014 and counting!
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Post by Etain Tur-Mukan on Jun 4, 2022 21:31:08 GMT
The smaller nations have really rallied round though I think that's a harsh assessment of Germany anyway, they have had 70 years of Ostpolitik and a non military ideology has become Germany identity To go from that to the measures they have taken and more importantly the words that right across German politics (even the greens) have said is astonishing. Putin has pushed Europe but especially Germany so far away from their influence its an enormous own goal by Russia The French.. meh The French have always been the same with regard to International crises and exhibit a tendancy to sit on the fence. They like to appear to be strong whilst in reality dithering and actually doing very little. During the first Gulf war to liberate Kuwait, the Western powers rallied around to create an armed coalition, with forces contributions. The French symbolically sent an Aircraft Carrier, but didn't put any aircraft on it. Also who can forget the Falklands conflict, when the French happily armed the Argentinians, supplying them with both Super Etendard warplanes and Exocet missiles. I was interested in what you said and wondered if it was the usual French being the French (like with them supplying the Argentinians etc) and checked it out. Wikipedia says they sent 18,000 troops. The second largest European contingent.
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 4, 2022 21:47:26 GMT
They’ve already lost 15-30000 troops Gods. 700+ confirmed tank losses so more like a 1000. They’re being pushed back (slowly) in the south. They’re gaining (slowly) in the east. All whilst Ukraine are getting better weapons and training more troops up. The French and Germans in particular have been pathetic but it’s a stalemate at the moment with Russia expending a lot of men and equipment on a small goal. The smaller nations have really rallied round though I think that's a harsh assessment of Germany anyway, they have had 70 years of Ostpolitik and a non military ideology has become Germany identity To go from that to the measures they have taken and more importantly the words that right across German politics (even the greens) have said is astonishing. Putin has pushed Europe but especially Germany so far away from their influence its an enormous own goal by Russia The French.. meh I think you are being soft on Germany. Despite Russia annexing parts of Georgia and the Crimea, Germany has pushed ahead with Nord Stream 2 increasing their dependency on Russia, ignoring objections and warnings from America. As for France, Vichy France is still alive and kicking. Macron has been appeasing for months: www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/08/emmanuel-macron-remark-russia-set-alarm-bell-ringing-ukraine-crisis-talk-vladimir-putinStill it wins votes with the French people. France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Slovakia and Spain – to different extents – have sold “military equipment” to Russia since 2014. www.investigate-europe.eu/en/2022/eu-states-exported-weapons-to-russia/
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Post by stokefc on Jun 4, 2022 22:47:23 GMT
Ukraine will never give up
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