|
|
Post by adri2008 on Nov 11, 2024 13:09:01 GMT
I think you have to look at things through Trump's egotistical brain. I highly doubt he'll just chuck Ukraine to the wolves as it'd look bad on him. He'll want to be seen a bringing the war to a close on reasonable terms. On the other hand, I don't see how Ukraine can realistically reclaim it's territory now - it might well have the numbers to defend and inflict heavy casualties on advancing Russians but taking on heavily defended positions? - I don't think it'll have the necessary numerical advantage for an offensive at this stage unless it's somehow kept a lot in reserve. All Trump wants to do is pause the war. Russia would keep the land, train more soldiers, build more weapons and then go again. Kicking the can down the road won't make it go away. Putin wants all of Ukraine and if he has to take it piece by piece I'm sure he would take that. Depends if you feel Russia is capable of waging another war? Putin might say he wants all of Ukraine but does he want another war of attrition eating up all of the country's resources. In my opinion, a major part of the reason the US has been happy to supply weaponry to Ukraine has been to substantially weaken Russia (without risking its own soldiers) so it can focus it's attentions on China. It'll then be down to Europe to defend its own borders. |
|
|
|
Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Nov 11, 2024 13:10:18 GMT
mtrstudent as probably one of the most itk what do you make of reports of Ukraine having to giving up crimea in order to achieve d as n end to the war. Ukraine won’t want that so is that dead in the water. Nobody is 'letting' Russia have Crimea right now. They had it for 10 years. You could make the case that Obama let Russia have it and that people of Crimea let Russia have it, as there was absolutely no resistance and not one bullet fired. I may be the only person registered here that has actually been there and spoken to people on the ground. I imagine most of Crimea would be more pro Russia than Moscow and St Petersburg, where there was at least something of a liberal/middle class, pro Europe crowd. I don't remember seeing a menu anywhere translated in either Ukrainian or English, for example. I can't imagine there are Ukrainian speakers in Lviv unhappy because they have relatives stuck living under occupation in Yalta. If there was a deal on the table in which Crimea is the only territorial loss, Zelensky signs in a heartbeat. As another poster referred to though, even more important is probably the long term security. South Korea has been at peace for a long time even though I think they technically only had a ceasefire? The treaty of Versailles, on the other hand, did very little to stop Germany in the 30s, because the winners in WW1 were in no position to enforce any of the conditions. |
|
|
|
Post by Gawa on Nov 11, 2024 13:13:28 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Gawa on Nov 11, 2024 13:16:29 GMT
Russians posted another video of them executing a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner. It happens all the time. But we're probably supposed to believe that it's all faked or something because Russia should control Ukraine since America bad. What happened to this tweet and the one from the post before? Sometimes I think you need to post the url as it doesn't embed them if they are nsfw I think. Or if not the tweets have been removed. |
|
|
|
Post by Gawa on Nov 11, 2024 13:20:30 GMT
mtrstudent as probably one of the most itk what do you make of reports of Ukraine having to giving up crimea in order to achieve d as n end to the war. Ukraine won’t want that so is that dead in the water. Nobody is 'letting' Russia have Crimea right now. They had it for 10 years. You could make the case that Obama let Russia have it and that people of Crimea let Russia have it, as there was absolutely no resistance and not one bullet fired. I may be the only person registered here that has actually been there and spoken to people on the ground. I imagine most of Crimea would be more pro Russia than Moscow and St Petersburg, where there was at least something of a liberal/middle class, pro Europe crowd. I don't remember seeing a menu anywhere translated in either Ukrainian or English, for example. I can't imagine there are Ukrainian speakers in Lviv unhappy because they have relatives stuck living under occupation in Yalta. If there was a deal on the table in which Crimea is the only territorial loss, Zelensky signs in a heartbeat. As another poster referred to though, even more important is probably the long term security. South Korea has been at peace for a long time even though I think they technically only had a ceasefire? The treaty of Versailles, on the other hand, did very little to stop Germany in the 30s, because the winners in WW1 were in no position to enforce any of the conditions. Well said on important context in crimea. Unfortunately a few posters on here think Kyiv speak for all ukranians in all regions. Good help us if Scotland ever fights for independence. A few posters on here would judge what the Scottish people want by what Cecil in London says. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:16:09 GMT
Depends if you feel Russia is capable of waging another war? Putin might say he wants all of Ukraine but does he want another war of attrition eating up all of the country's resources. In my opinion, a major part of the reason the US has been happy to supply weaponry to Ukraine has been to substantially weaken Russia (without risking its own soldiers) so it can focus it's attentions on China. It'll then be down to Europe to defend its own borders. The arguments I've seen are that: (1) if you weaken sanctions then China will prop up Russia. For them it's an incredibly cheap way of leverage against Europe. (2) Russia is in a war economy and sacrificing the domestic economy. Putin can't risk ending the war economy because without an enemy, people ask questions. Russia's invasion of Donbas and Crimea in 2014 seems like it was actually very expensive too. If you look at all the measures of Russian growth they started flattening right after sanctions came in. Russia wants its empire and the only safe way to stop it is strength. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:20:28 GMT
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it If Putin would withdraw from everywhere except Crimea then I'm sure there would be peace. But he insists that the only option is that Ukraine withdraw from all its defensive positions, hand over major cities, and start negotiating its disarmament. If Trump tells him that the US will cut off aid, then why would he stop? It will make things easier for Putin. I do think trump would like to end it because it would look good for trump, but I also think he'd prefer the dictator winning. Otoh if trump can't solve it quickly what makes people believe he'll stick to what he says? He said he'd build a wall and make Mexico pay. He said he'd repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed, he moved on to something else and no one cares. |
|
|
|
Post by salopstick on Nov 11, 2024 16:25:17 GMT
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it If Putin would withdraw from everywhere except Crimea then I'm sure there would be peace. But he insists that the only option is that Ukraine withdraw from all its defensive positions, hand over major cities, and start negotiating its disarmament. If Trump tells him that the US will cut off aid, then why would he stop? It will make things easier for Putin. I do think trump would like to end it because it would look good for trump, but I also think he'd prefer the dictator winning. Otoh if trump can't solve it quickly what makes people believe he'll stick to what he says? He said he'd build a wall and make Mexico pay. He said he'd repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed, he moved on to something else and no one cares. as crimea is quite russianfied itt may be a good out for Ukraine until January we wont really know, i just dont think NAto and Europe will desert Ukraine and i dont believe USA wil lturn off the funding trap lots of rumour and conjecture at the moment, we just have to hope for a suitable break through |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:27:15 GMT
I will say about Trump - he seems to be pretty simple at negotiating and not exactly smart when it comes to things that require logical long term planning (like finances). His emotions drive everything. The russians might fuck up somehow in a way that upsets him because both Putin and Trump rely a lot on trying to show dominance.
The job of the US military is now going to be to secure money and power for the Trump family, so I suspect Ukraine might be looking at this sort of angle. Could they bribe him with their natural resources?
|
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:28:58 GMT
i dont believe USA wil lturn off the funding trap lots of rumour and conjecture at the moment, we just have to hope for a suitable break through Yeah we'll have to wait and see but I try to look at what people do as well as their words. And republicans blockaded the 2024 aid bill for 6 months and killed any future aid. They knew they were causing lots of Ukrainians to needlessly die and ultimately it could win the war for Putin. I'll change my tone it the House passes a funding bill with ~double the last package worth of aid in January or February. It needs to be double to make up for the amount they delayed. |
|
|
|
Post by salopstick on Nov 11, 2024 16:29:22 GMT
I will say about Trump - he seems to be pretty simple at negotiating and not exactly smart when it comes to things that require logical long term planning (like finances). His emotions drive everything. The russians might fuck up somehow in a way that upsets him because both Putin and Trump rely a lot on trying to show dominance. The job of the US military is now going to be to secure money and power for the Trump family, so I suspect Ukraine might be looking at this sort of angle. Could they bribe him with their natural resources? when the war is over certain individuals are going to make fortunes from private security and the rebuild |
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Nov 11, 2024 16:37:02 GMT
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it If Putin would withdraw from everywhere except Crimea then I'm sure there would be peace. But he insists that the only option is that Ukraine withdraw from all its defensive positions, hand over major cities, and start negotiating its disarmament. If Trump tells him that the US will cut off aid, then why would he stop? It will make things easier for Putin. I do think trump would like to end it because it would look good for trump, but I also think he'd prefer the dictator winning. Otoh if trump can't solve it quickly what makes people believe he'll stick to what he says? He said he'd build a wall and make Mexico pay. He said he'd repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed, he moved on to something else and no one cares. Couldn't agree more. Trump SAYS a lot of things. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:37:16 GMT
"This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it's just false information," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "There was no conversation." "This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications," Peskov said. Asked if Putin had plans for any contacts with Trump, Peskov said: "There are no concrete plans yet." www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-there-was-no-putin-trump-call-2024-11-11/Is this our media trying to push this false narrative of a special relationship between Trump and Putin again I wonder. I obviously don't know what happened this time but I try to use things that actually happened to see if sources are reliable. In Nov 2021 there was "our media" accused of pushing a "false narrative" that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Luckily, honest Peskov was there to set people straight "Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed Western media reports that Moscow has intentions to invade Ukraine as a “hollow and unfounded attempt to incite tensions.”" "Russia doesn’t threaten anyone,” Peskov said during a conference call with reporters. “The movement of troops on our territory shouldn’t be a cause for anyone’s concern.” www.politico.com/news/2021/11/12/russia-kremlin-ukraine-nato-threats-521031 |
|
|
|
Post by probably on Nov 11, 2024 16:42:59 GMT
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it If Putin would withdraw from everywhere except Crimea then I'm sure there would be peace. But he insists that the only option is that Ukraine withdraw from all its defensive positions, hand over major cities, and start negotiating its disarmament. If Trump tells him that the US will cut off aid, then why would he stop? It will make things easier for Putin. I do think trump would like to end it because it would look good for trump, but I also think he'd prefer the dictator winning. Otoh if trump can't solve it quickly what makes people believe he'll stick to what he says? He said he'd build a wall and make Mexico pay. He said he'd repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed, he moved on to something else and no one cares. Fairly sure that Donald Trump did make significant progress on the Mexico border wall, constructing about 458 miles of new barriers. He faced numerous challenges, including legal battles, funding issues, and opposition from various stakeholders which hampered him - but he did start to build the wall. As for Obamacare - Trump made several attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act but was there was a lack of support in Congress and it was constantly subject to legal challenges. But Trump did try to repeal Obamacare. |
|
|
|
Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Nov 11, 2024 16:44:33 GMT
i dont believe USA wil lturn off the funding trap lots of rumour and conjecture at the moment, we just have to hope for a suitable break through Yeah we'll have to wait and see but I try to look at what people do as well as their words. And republicans blockaded the 2024 aid bill for 6 months and killed any future aid. They knew they were causing lots of Ukrainians to needlessly die and ultimately it could win the war for Putin. I'll change my tone it the House passes a funding bill with ~double the last package worth of aid in January or February. It needs to be double to make up for the amount they delayed. Republicans did block aid this year but it's worth considering the reasons why. They opposed the fact that there was no attempt at diplomacy or any resemblance of plan for what winning seriously looked like. Also the lack of any accountability for where the money was going and any information about Ukrainian losses of equipment just makes it a black hole to throw money into. Wasted lives and money and in the end the outcome will be more or less the same as the Istanbul agreement. I don't agree with your view of just giving Ukraine everything and hope Russia accepts defeat without using a nuclear bomb, but if they were going to roll that dice, it should have been last year when Ukraine had the momentum but needed f16s |
|
|
|
Post by Ariel Manto on Nov 11, 2024 16:47:02 GMT
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it If Putin would withdraw from everywhere except Crimea then I'm sure there would be peace. But he insists that the only option is that Ukraine withdraw from all its defensive positions, hand over major cities, and start negotiating its disarmament. If Trump tells him that the US will cut off aid, then why would he stop? It will make things easier for Putin. I do think trump would like to end it because it would look good for trump, but I also think he'd prefer the dictator winning. Otoh if trump can't solve it quickly what makes people believe he'll stick to what he says? He said he'd build a wall and make Mexico pay. He said he'd repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed, he moved on to something else and no one cares. Hang on - the Mexico Wall and Obamacare were Trump policies not rhetoric. The fact that legal challenges and Congress blocked him isn't the same as him "moving on". No doubt he'll have another crack this time as he holds all of the cards he needs now. There has never been a more powerful US President in the post-WWII period. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:47:05 GMT
Interesting that Russia said a Ukrainian drone hit civilians in Belgorod, but then CCTV footage came out and it looks just like a russian Shahed that malfunctioned.
Makes you wonder if Russia is totally honest when it says Ukrainians hit civilian targets.
|
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:50:22 GMT
Fairly sure that Donald Trump did make significant progress on the Mexico border wall, constructing about 458 miles of new barriers. He faced numerous challenges, including legal battles, funding issues, and opposition from various stakeholders which hampered him - but he did start to build the wall. As for Obamacare - Trump made several attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act but was there was a lack of support in Congress and it was constantly subject to legal challenges. But Trump did try to repeal Obamacare. Yeah I mean he tried and he failed. Does anyone care now? Why would anyone care if he fails in Ukraine and just decides to move on? People seem to assume he'll work something out, and that even if he fails he will work at it because... He can't fail? Or something? The Obamacare repeal attempt was interesting. It tried to strip healthcare coverage from tens of millions of normal people to give huge savings to the rich. Totally different to what he'd promised and still, no one cares. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 16:52:06 GMT
Another video showing how important NATO kit is.
Crews say that so many of them survived because Bradleys, Marders etc are tougher than BMPs. They talk of saving hundreds, maybe even thousands of lives.
|
|
|
|
Post by Ariel Manto on Nov 11, 2024 16:57:53 GMT
Fairly sure that Donald Trump did make significant progress on the Mexico border wall, constructing about 458 miles of new barriers. He faced numerous challenges, including legal battles, funding issues, and opposition from various stakeholders which hampered him - but he did start to build the wall. As for Obamacare - Trump made several attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act but was there was a lack of support in Congress and it was constantly subject to legal challenges. But Trump did try to repeal Obamacare. Yeah I mean he tried and he failed. Does anyone care now? Why would anyone care if he fails in Ukraine and just decides to move on? People seem to assume he'll work something out, and that even if he fails he will work at it because... He can't fail? Or something? The Obamacare repeal attempt was interesting. It tried to strip healthcare coverage from tens of millions of normal people to give huge savings to the rich. Totally different to what he'd promised and still, no one cares. Don't suppose they'll care up and until the moment Trump tries to do it again. As for Ukraine - I always think the risk with these things is the diplomatic fallout. For the moment it's hyperbole at least until January 2025 when Trump takes The Oath, but the fallout from a US President very publicly backing a sworn enemy of The West and deliberately undermining NATO and its strategy will probably (I hesitate to use the word inevitably) lead to the EU looking to enhance it's armed forces and create a single European Army to supersede the Common Foreign and Security Policy. And who could blame them? After all, having spent decades fighting the idea, if the US sides with Russia over Ukraine (a European territory) there's every chance the UK would eventually look to be a signatory in the future given the risk of not doing so balanced against the threat. |
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Nov 11, 2024 17:16:44 GMT
Fairly sure that Donald Trump did make significant progress on the Mexico border wall, constructing about 458 miles of new barriers. He faced numerous challenges, including legal battles, funding issues, and opposition from various stakeholders which hampered him - but he did start to build the wall. As for Obamacare - Trump made several attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act but was there was a lack of support in Congress and it was constantly subject to legal challenges. But Trump did try to repeal Obamacare. Yeah I mean he tried and he failed. Does anyone care now? Why would anyone care if he fails in Ukraine and just decides to move on? People seem to assume he'll work something out, and that even if he fails he will work at it because... He can't fail? Or something? The Obamacare repeal attempt was interesting. It tried to strip healthcare coverage from tens of millions of normal people to give huge savings to the rich. Totally different to what he'd promised and still, no one cares. Exactly. He knows that he can say and promise pretty much anything because ultimately, he won't be held to account if he doesn't deliver. And he is so lacking in integrity, he simply doesn't care one jot, if he doesn't deliver and doesn't remotely feel any sense of failure having done so. He will say whatever he feels will benefit Donald Trump in that particular moment and then just simply move on without believing he needs to show an ounce of accountability or responsibility for those comments. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 17:18:59 GMT
Russian vehicle losses recorded so far.
~3.5k tanks. They replaced that many from storage, but now there are fewer than 700 decent condition ones left.
Over ~7k infantry fighting vehicles/AFV/APC that they were also mostly able to replace (plus they make ~900/year new)... But only ~3k decent condition ones left in storage. Of those, about 1k are recon cars, armoured tractors and artillery observation vehicles that aren't designed for assaults.
|
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 17:22:57 GMT
As for Ukraine - I always think the risk with these things is the diplomatic fallout. For the moment it's hyperbole at least until January 2025 when Trump takes The Oath, but the fallout from a US President very publicly backing a sworn enemy of The West and deliberately undermining NATO and its strategy will probably (I hesitate to use the word inevitably) lead to the EU looking to enhance it's armed forces and create a single European Army to supersede the Common Foreign and Security Policy. And who could blame them? Yeah we don't know what will happen, trump is unpredictable but he's also a hateful, cruel and utterly corrupt liar who likes dictators and despises democracy. That's probably not a good thing for most EU countries. If you're Taiwan, S Korea and Japan you now can't trust the US' word. What do you do? If Taiwan and SK don't secure nukes then their leaders are seriously gambling with the entire future of their nation and people. Perhaps they are willing to gamble, or maybe not. |
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Nov 11, 2024 17:26:59 GMT
If Putin would withdraw from everywhere except Crimea then I'm sure there would be peace. But he insists that the only option is that Ukraine withdraw from all its defensive positions, hand over major cities, and start negotiating its disarmament. If Trump tells him that the US will cut off aid, then why would he stop? It will make things easier for Putin. I do think trump would like to end it because it would look good for trump, but I also think he'd prefer the dictator winning. Otoh if trump can't solve it quickly what makes people believe he'll stick to what he says? He said he'd build a wall and make Mexico pay. He said he'd repeal and replace Obamacare. He failed, he moved on to something else and no one cares. Hang on - the Mexico Wall and Obamacare were Trump policies not rhetoric. The fact that legal challenges and Congress blocked him isn't the same as him "moving on". No doubt he'll have another crack this time as he holds all of the cards he needs now. There has never been a more powerful US President in the post-WWII period. Republicans controlled the Senate and Congress during Trump's first Presidency |
|
|
|
Post by Ariel Manto on Nov 11, 2024 18:06:38 GMT
Hang on - the Mexico Wall and Obamacare were Trump policies not rhetoric. The fact that legal challenges and Congress blocked him isn't the same as him "moving on". No doubt he'll have another crack this time as he holds all of the cards he needs now. There has never been a more powerful US President in the post-WWII period. Republicans controlled the Senate and Congress during Trump's first Presidency Thought Trump only held The House (Congress) until 2018? Either way, with the Supreme Court all settled in his favour, Trump starts from a position of significant strength so he can do what he wants from the off. |
|
|
|
Post by Ariel Manto on Nov 11, 2024 19:45:45 GMT
As for Ukraine - I always think the risk with these things is the diplomatic fallout. For the moment it's hyperbole at least until January 2025 when Trump takes The Oath, but the fallout from a US President very publicly backing a sworn enemy of The West and deliberately undermining NATO and its strategy will probably (I hesitate to use the word inevitably) lead to the EU looking to enhance it's armed forces and create a single European Army to supersede the Common Foreign and Security Policy. And who could blame them? Yeah we don't know what will happen, trump is unpredictable but he's also a hateful, cruel and utterly corrupt liar who likes dictators and despises democracy. That's probably not a good thing for most EU countries. If you're Taiwan, S Korea and Japan you now can't trust the US' word. What do you do? If Taiwan and SK don't secure nukes then their leaders are seriously gambling with the entire future of their nation and people. Perhaps they are willing to gamble, or maybe not. I think you can pretty much predict what Trump will do. If anything, we know Trump is looking to re-evaluate and reduce US commitments to international alliances like NATO, urging allies to contribute more financially or take control of matters themselves With Ukraine, Trump views the situation as a quid-pro-quo. Trump has already said he wants a peace negotiation which would include European troops patrolling a demilitarized zone, with the US continuing to provide arms in exchange for Ukraine giving up some territory and delaying its NATO membership ambitions. It's also why the idea of the creation a single European Army to supersede the Common Foreign and Security Policy would be a potentially viable option for the EU going forwards, given we know it's been discussed to reduce dependence on the U.S. for security, amongst other things. After all, I don't know why Trump would (or should) feel having US troops on the ground in Ukraine and Europe is in the US' interest - it's essentially in Europe's interest so it's for Europe to sort out, which is a fair argument. It's a little off-topic, but if, as you say, we you don't know what Trump is going to do (or what will happen), I'm interested to know why you feel Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan would not be able to trust the US' word? We know Trump views China as a major competitor and through America First not only aims to counter its influence through economic and military measures, but also increase US military spending to ensure the U.S. can defend its interests globally. |
|
|
|
Post by salopstick on Nov 12, 2024 9:22:25 GMT
Yeah we don't know what will happen, trump is unpredictable but he's also a hateful, cruel and utterly corrupt liar who likes dictators and despises democracy. That's probably not a good thing for most EU countries. If you're Taiwan, S Korea and Japan you now can't trust the US' word. What do you do? If Taiwan and SK don't secure nukes then their leaders are seriously gambling with the entire future of their nation and people. Perhaps they are willing to gamble, or maybe not. I think you can pretty much predict what Trump will do. If anything, we know Trump is looking to re-evaluate and reduce US commitments to international alliances like NATO, urging allies to contribute more financially or take control of matters themselves With Ukraine, Trump views the situation as a quid-pro-quo. Trump has already said he wants a peace negotiation which would include European troops patrolling a demilitarized zone, with the US continuing to provide arms in exchange for Ukraine giving up some territory and delaying its NATO membership ambitions. It's also why the idea of the creation a single European Army to supersede the Common Foreign and Security Policy would be a potentially viable option for the EU going forwards, given we know it's been discussed to reduce dependence on the U.S. for security, amongst other things. After all, I don't know why Trump would (or should) feel having US troops on the ground in Ukraine and Europe is in the US' interest - it's essentially in Europe's interest so it's for Europe to sort out, which is a fair argument. It's a little off-topic, but if, as you say, we you don't know what Trump is going to do (or what will happen), I'm interested to know why you feel Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan would not be able to trust the US' word? We know Trump views China as a major competitor and through America First not only aims to counter its influence through economic and military measures, but also increase US military spending to ensure the U.S. can defend its interests globally. for all the rhetoric its not in the usa interests to have china at war with taiwan, an other korean war or have japan invaded and as such USA will continue to support all three countries in their usual manner. i think its good that he reached out to n korea last time and to keep cordial relations with china |
|
|
|
Post by Ariel Manto on Nov 12, 2024 13:56:15 GMT
I think you can pretty much predict what Trump will do. If anything, we know Trump is looking to re-evaluate and reduce US commitments to international alliances like NATO, urging allies to contribute more financially or take control of matters themselves With Ukraine, Trump views the situation as a quid-pro-quo. Trump has already said he wants a peace negotiation which would include European troops patrolling a demilitarized zone, with the US continuing to provide arms in exchange for Ukraine giving up some territory and delaying its NATO membership ambitions. It's also why the idea of the creation a single European Army to supersede the Common Foreign and Security Policy would be a potentially viable option for the EU going forwards, given we know it's been discussed to reduce dependence on the U.S. for security, amongst other things. After all, I don't know why Trump would (or should) feel having US troops on the ground in Ukraine and Europe is in the US' interest - it's essentially in Europe's interest so it's for Europe to sort out, which is a fair argument. It's a little off-topic, but if, as you say, we you don't know what Trump is going to do (or what will happen), I'm interested to know why you feel Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan would not be able to trust the US' word? We know Trump views China as a major competitor and through America First not only aims to counter its influence through economic and military measures, but also increase US military spending to ensure the U.S. can defend its interests globally. for all the rhetoric its not in the usa interests to have china at war with taiwan, an other korean war or have japan invaded and as such USA will continue to support all three countries in their usual manner. i think its good that he reached out to n korea last time and to keep cordial relations with china Yes - totally agree. Trump may very well represent the eventual victory of neo-realism (given Trump falls on the side of no actor or organisation existing above states, the pursuit of narrow national interest, and of power and security) over neo-functionalism (the growing economic interdependence between nations, an organisational capacity to resolve disputes and build international legal regimes, alongside supranational market rules that replace national regulatory regimes) - if you want to get all political theory about it all. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 12, 2024 16:41:01 GMT
Seeing if I can post a BlueSky message. Ukraine claims they took out 1950 russian soldiers (killed+wounded) yesterday. That's a new record. I think now it's obvious that Russia have prepared more forces than I'd hoped and I suspect are going to push very hard at least through January. They want to hide how shitty things are getting for them and to persuade the West & Ukraine to surrender before their serious issues become obvious. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Nov 12, 2024 16:45:37 GMT
It's a little off-topic, but if, as you say, we you don't know what Trump is going to do (or what will happen), I'm interested to know why you feel Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan would not be able to trust the US' word? We know Trump views China as a major competitor and through America First not only aims to counter its influence through economic and military measures, but also increase US military spending to ensure the U.S. can defend its interests globally. First off Trump is a liar. You cannot trust anything he says. Secondly, he's trying to tear down NATO and using any excuses he can to force Ukraine to surrender, even though it would be incredibly cheap for the US to fund the victory of democracy. Watch how the goal posts will change. After talking about European allies needing to spend 2% of GDP on defence, now that the vast majority are doing it there will be some new excuse or target or need. With Trump there is now no guarantee that the US will support democracy or follow its word. If you're Taiwan and you trust Trump do you want to be like the contractors he stiffed? You're going to risk your own extinction just to trust a compulse liar who despises democracies? I find that an insane risk but I understand other people might see it differently. |
|
