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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 10, 2024 23:04:05 GMT
Russian terror attacks continue. An S-300 missile has injured at least 10 people in a Kharkiv hôtel 😢
The S-300 is an anti-aircraft missile, they're inaccurate against ground targets but Russia just wants to kill and scare people so they regularly fire them into cities like Kharkiv.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 11, 2024 1:14:47 GMT
At least 3 Russian drone hits on a Ukrainian Leopard 2.
It sounds like the tank got out fine.
Don't think I've seen another video of 3 hits from that angle that a tank survived.
NATO builds tougher. There was a Ukrainian tanker back in summer who claimed his tank took 3 missile hits and got out for repairs.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 11, 2024 18:01:21 GMT
Russia oil and gas revenues in roubles.
People were saying Putin was good in 2022 because the rouble was only 60 to the $. But that meant a $100 oil barrel was 6000 roubles for russia. In 2023 the rouble was more like 90 to the $ so a $90 barrel was 8100 roubles for russia.
Less real money, but more paper money for Russia's budget and GDP.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 11, 2024 20:25:54 GMT
Russians attacked Stepove village again recently, lost a couple more tanks and fell back.
Insanity. They've been stuck at the edges of this tiny village for 6 weeks now.
Since 1st December, Russia has conquered another 63 sq km of Ukraine and lost at least 300 tanks and armoured fighting vehicles.
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Post by wannabee on Jan 11, 2024 20:47:11 GMT
Russia oil and gas revenues in roubles. People were saying Putin was good in 2022 because the rouble was only 60 to the $. But that meant a $100 oil barrel was 6000 roubles for russia. In 2023 the rouble was more like 90 to the $ so a $90 barrel was 8100 roubles for russia. Less real money, but more paper money for Russia's budget and GDP. Any financial figures from Russia I'm sure your well aware need to be taken with extreme caution and are exceedingly opaque The line between Government and "Private" Companies are extremely blurred I have no doubt that Russian Revenues have been affected for the reasons given but a 1.9% Current Account Deficit is not unusual Of the G7 Countries the following ran a Current Account Deficit in 2023 UK -3.7% US -3.0% France -1.2% Canada -1.0% Germany had a 6. 0% surplus Japan 3.3% and Italy 0.7% What would hurt Russia is if it lost the ability to borrow Internationally or if the Rates were prohibitive www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/FRA/GBR/DEU/USA/CAN/JPN/ITATo emphasise the opaque nature of how Russian Business operates the "Windfall Tax" the Article you linked references was a Tax the Oligarchs "Volunteered" If it were required Putin could simply Nationalise a Gazprom or similar and Oligarchs would be careful not to stand too close to upstairs windows. Putin himself quite likely owns a considerable share of these "Companies" most likely www.ft.com/content/c6080d1e-d3c3-4b1d-b7f3-e3acff1876ca
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 11, 2024 22:22:30 GMT
Latest map near Stepove. All those red and yellow bits in the fields west of the rail tracks... That's what Russia has taken in almost 3 months of hard attacks.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 12, 2024 0:23:17 GMT
It’s mad to see how much Russia is losing and they still come.
Videos of tanks and people carriers just getting fucked time after time.
It’s got to be the most efficient bit of money the American dept of Defence has ever spent.
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Post by hcstokie on Jan 12, 2024 7:47:02 GMT
It’s mad to see how much Russia is losing and they still come. Videos of tanks and people carriers just getting fucked time after time. It’s got to be the most efficient bit of money the American dept of Defence has ever spent. I listened to a podcast recently and it suggested that aid equating to 5% of the USA’s annual DoD budget has resulted in the attrition of approximately 45-55% of Russia’s military strength. I’m convinced this is one of the reasons the support is drip fed, it’s bleeding Russian military but also prolonging sanctions and hitting Russia’s economy. I listened to an interview of a retired American general, and he essentially said if they gave Ukraine what they would usually take to a war like this, it may be wrapped up relatively quickly. As an example, he discussed air superiority which is the main reason why Ukraine’s counter attack didn’t see the desired results. America have not lost a single soldier to a plane/helicopter attack since the 50s. Other things, like restricting the use of western supplied weapons to only Ukraine, seem to point to the West wanting to prolong this for as long as possible. Of course, the longer it runs, the more money the arms suppliers make as well.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 12, 2024 23:48:23 GMT
The video is here. Russia's most modern T-90M tank gets the jump on a Ukrainian Bradley original Desert Storm version. The russians miss then get absolutely minced. Not seen many of these close duels on video, fantastic that the Ukrainians got out alive and the invaders hopefully didn't.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 13, 2024 14:40:02 GMT
Vehicle losses proven so far in the battle for Avdiivka.
Better than 10-1 in Ukraine's favour. Could do with another few similar battles.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 13, 2024 14:45:16 GMT
Ukraine claims it stopped "over 20" missiles with electronic warfare and shot down 8 more.
It's hard for me to understand what this means or how it could be true, but it'd be fantastic if real!
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 14, 2024 16:23:22 GMT
View from a Ukrainian kamikaze drone.
Been posting fewer vids nowadays because so many look like that. Russia doesn't have enough armoured vehicles for all its soldiers any more, so the videos usually have lots of visible injuries or deaths.
Russia has tons of drones now too, but don't see anywhere near as many mass casualty events.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 14, 2024 18:41:53 GMT
Any financial figures from Russia I'm sure your well aware need to be taken with extreme caution and are exceedingly opaque The line between Government and "Private" Companies are extremely blurred I have no doubt that Russian Revenues have been affected for the reasons given but a 1.9% Current Account Deficit is not unusual Of the G7 Countries the following ran a Current Account Deficit in 2023 UK -3.7% US -3.0% France -1.2% Canada -1.0% Germany had a 6. 0% surplus Japan 3.3% and Italy 0.7% What would hurt Russia is if it lost the ability to borrow Internationally or if the Rates were prohibitive www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/FRA/GBR/DEU/USA/CAN/JPN/ITATo emphasise the opaque nature of how Russian Business operates the "Windfall Tax" the Article you linked references was a Tax the Oligarchs "Volunteered" If it were required Putin could simply Nationalise a Gazprom or similar and Oligarchs would be careful not to stand too close to upstairs windows. Putin himself quite likely owns a considerable share of these "Companies" most likely www.ft.com/content/c6080d1e-d3c3-4b1d-b7f3-e3acff1876caThat Janis Kluge bloke I linked seems switched on and explains what we know and what we don't. You're right about the money being moved around. The biggest part of the "windfall tax" he mentions was 1.5 trillion roubles from Gazprom in 2022. Gazprom's cash pile dropped from $30bn to $8bn before they stopped reporting. It's hard to see Putin finding another 1.5 trillion hidden in that piggy bank.
Also the federal deficit is around 2% of GDP, which isn't bad by western standards but investors demand almost 13% yields on 10-year russian debt, which tells us something.
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Post by wannabee on Jan 15, 2024 0:57:07 GMT
Any financial figures from Russia I'm sure your well aware need to be taken with extreme caution and are exceedingly opaque The line between Government and "Private" Companies are extremely blurred I have no doubt that Russian Revenues have been affected for the reasons given but a 1.9% Current Account Deficit is not unusual Of the G7 Countries the following ran a Current Account Deficit in 2023 UK -3.7% US -3.0% France -1.2% Canada -1.0% Germany had a 6. 0% surplus Japan 3.3% and Italy 0.7% What would hurt Russia is if it lost the ability to borrow Internationally or if the Rates were prohibitive www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/FRA/GBR/DEU/USA/CAN/JPN/ITATo emphasise the opaque nature of how Russian Business operates the "Windfall Tax" the Article you linked references was a Tax the Oligarchs "Volunteered" If it were required Putin could simply Nationalise a Gazprom or similar and Oligarchs would be careful not to stand too close to upstairs windows. Putin himself quite likely owns a considerable share of these "Companies" most likely www.ft.com/content/c6080d1e-d3c3-4b1d-b7f3-e3acff1876caThat Janis Kluge bloke I linked seems switched on and explains what we know and what we don't. You're right about the money being moved around. The biggest part of the "windfall tax" he mentions was 1.5 trillion roubles from Gazprom in 2022. Gazprom's cash pile dropped from $30bn to $8bn before they stopped reporting. It's hard to see Putin finding another 1.5 trillion hidden in that piggy bank.
Also the federal deficit is around 2% of GDP, which isn't bad by western standards but investors demand almost 13% yields on 10-year russian debt, which tells us something. No doubt Kluge knows his stuff but in this particular Tweet he focused on Revenues which undoubtedly dropped in 2023 after a Bonanza year in 2022 What he doesn't touch on in his Tweet is the International Cash Reserves Russia has which at the end of 2023vwere about $560Bn which is a big drop-off from the $620Bn it had at end of 2022 Of course due to Sanctions some of that Cash is difficult to access but it doesn't include the Cash Reserves of the Major Russian Oil Companies but they are even more hampered by Sanctions As I said previously and you have agreed in your post the biggest issue for Russia is the cost of Borrowing on the Bond Market which attracts a premium due to the Countries Risk Volatility. Things change rapidly Financially for Russia good/bad. Immediately after US/UK attack on Houthis Oil Prices rose about 4% which would add about $4Bn in a full year to Revenues My central point is that those wishing/expecting Russian Revenues to fall to the extent they will find it difficult to prosecute the War in Ukraine are going to be sadly disappointed. There are comfortably enough Cash Reserves to continue this Shitshow for at least 2/3 years Obviously much can happen in the intervening period, US Election, other World Conflicts, the Price of Oil but I wouldn't pin hopes of Russia running out of Cash as a Game Changer
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 15, 2024 5:42:00 GMT
Some wild rumours going around. They say that a Russian heavy aircraft was hit and had to make an emergency landing, and also that a major russian A-50 command and control aircraft got taken down.
Supposedly really really expensive and important but there's no real evidence yet that anything was shot down, so don't believe for now.
EDIT: Russian pilot channel is complaining. Sounds like it might be real! Apparently these command aircraft are $300+ million each.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 15, 2024 7:11:06 GMT
They defo shot something down
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 15, 2024 8:00:23 GMT
Big blow to Russian air superiority
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Post by Northy on Jan 15, 2024 8:34:47 GMT
A good one liner I heard - It's been converted into an expensive submarine
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Post by OldStokie on Jan 15, 2024 14:20:04 GMT
Purely my own thoughts these are and I'm no expert.
At the moment the war is a stalemate and it won't be until Spring arrives that we'll see any real movement from either side. A number of things can happen in that time to tip the balance in Ukraine's favour providing the US and the EU can get over their squabbles and begin to fund them properly again. Hopefully, those pilots sent to learn how to fly the F16s will be able to do so and quite a large number of those super planes they've been promised can gain air superiority for UKR. That will drastically change things. Add to that quite a lot of tanks and weaponry and ammo they'll be able to buy, which is far superior to the stuff Russia has, and a massive push forward (under the umbrella of air superiority) could see them achieve what they couldn't this last year. I'm thinking this year will be the last for UKR to make good their aims. After that, especially if Trump gets in, then they will have to settle for a peace deal with Russia. So fingers crossed eh!
OS.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 15, 2024 15:29:07 GMT
They defo shot something down As well as FighterBomber there's Helicopter Pilot, the translator gave me: "There is no desire or strength to comment on the night tragedy. Eternal memory to the dead!" I think one was promoted to submarine! 😊
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 15, 2024 16:08:02 GMT
The stories are that an Il-22M command plane was hit but escaped to land, and a much more valuable A-50 (like AWACS) was taken out.
Here's a pic of a tail of an Il-22 that was posted. It looks real to the airplane experts I follow.
So the A-50 takedown is probably real.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 15, 2024 16:15:09 GMT
Yet another T-80 tank goes boom.
This is the northern Avdiivka front I keep talking about.
Russia advanced from 10-17th October across an open area. Now every time they send reinforcements or supplies, the Ukrainians can see and get a chance to blow them up.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 15, 2024 17:17:02 GMT
The stories are that an Il-22M command plane was hit but escaped to land, and a much more valuable A-50 (like AWACS) was taken out. Here's a pic of a tail of an Il-22 that was posted. It looks real to the airplane experts I follow. So the A-50 takedown is probably real. Any suggestions about that damage pattern? Because it looks like cannon fire to me but I have no idea. I guess it could be a missile exploding close to and then shrapnel from that?
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Post by lordb on Jan 15, 2024 17:26:47 GMT
Purely my own thoughts these are and I'm no expert. At the moment the war is a stalemate and it won't be until Spring arrives that we'll see any real movement from either side. A number of things can happen in that time to tip the balance in Ukraine's favour providing the US and the EU can get over their squabbles and begin to fund them properly again. Hopefully, those pilots sent to learn how to fly the F16s will be able to do so and quite a large number of those super planes they've been promised can gain air superiority for UKR. That will drastically change things. Add to that quite a lot of tanks and weaponry and ammo they'll be able to buy, which is far superior to the stuff Russia has, and a massive push forward (under the umbrella of air superiority) could see them achieve what they couldn't this last year. I'm thinking this year will be the last for UKR to make good their aims. After that, especially if Trump gets in, then they will have to settle for a peace deal with Russia. So fingers crossed eh! OS. & If Trump doesn't get in?
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Post by Northy on Jan 15, 2024 17:30:46 GMT
Yet another T-80 tank goes boom. This is the northern Avdiivka front I keep talking about. Russia advanced from 10-17th October across an open area. Now every time they send reinforcements or supplies, the Ukrainians can see and get a chance to blow them up. The Russians have very slowly been gaining ground around Avdiivka for a few months at great losses, Ukraine have been building big defence lines behind there just in case it falls, lets hope they can resist and mount a counter offence.
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Post by Northy on Jan 15, 2024 17:32:11 GMT
The stories are that an Il-22M command plane was hit but escaped to land, and a much more valuable A-50 (like AWACS) was taken out. Here's a pic of a tail of an Il-22 that was posted. It looks real to the airplane experts I follow. So the A-50 takedown is probably real. Any suggestions about that damage pattern? Because it looks like cannon fire to me but I have no idea. I guess it could be a missile exploding close to and then shrapnel from that? I think the damage shapes are too different for cannon fire and may be an exploding missile or nearby object that has caused it.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 15, 2024 19:02:12 GMT
Any suggestions about that damage pattern? Because it looks like cannon fire to me but I have no idea. I guess it could be a missile exploding close to and then shrapnel from that? I think the damage shapes are too different for cannon fire and may be an exploding missile or nearby object that has caused it. Anti aircraft missiles can do "hit to kill" or "blast frag". I think the type depends on the missile. The blast frag missiles get close then explode into a cone of flame and shrapnel, like a shotgun blast in the sky. All the little holes make me think it's one of those? But I know almost nothing about this!
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Post by OldStokie on Jan 15, 2024 20:10:11 GMT
Purely my own thoughts these are and I'm no expert. At the moment the war is a stalemate and it won't be until Spring arrives that we'll see any real movement from either side. A number of things can happen in that time to tip the balance in Ukraine's favour providing the US and the EU can get over their squabbles and begin to fund them properly again. Hopefully, those pilots sent to learn how to fly the F16s will be able to do so and quite a large number of those super planes they've been promised can gain air superiority for UKR. That will drastically change things. Add to that quite a lot of tanks and weaponry and ammo they'll be able to buy, which is far superior to the stuff Russia has, and a massive push forward (under the umbrella of air superiority) could see them achieve what they couldn't this last year. I'm thinking this year will be the last for UKR to make good their aims. After that, especially if Trump gets in, then they will have to settle for a peace deal with Russia. So fingers crossed eh! OS. & If Trump doesn't get in? If it's Biden then I think UKR will drive them out. That's providing the EU can buy off Hungary. OS.
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Post by Northy on Jan 15, 2024 20:39:47 GMT
I think the damage shapes are too different for cannon fire and may be an exploding missile or nearby object that has caused it. Anti aircraft missiles can do "hit to kill" or "blast frag". I think the type depends on the missile. The blast frag missiles get close then explode into a cone of flame and shrapnel, like a shotgun blast in the sky. All the little holes make me think it's one of those? But I know almost nothing about this! It does look more like a shrapnel type explosion rather than cannon fire
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 15, 2024 21:26:28 GMT
Anti aircraft missiles can do "hit to kill" or "blast frag". I think the type depends on the missile. The blast frag missiles get close then explode into a cone of flame and shrapnel, like a shotgun blast in the sky. All the little holes make me think it's one of those? But I know almost nothing about this! It does look more like a shrapnel type explosion rather than cannon fire I reckon you're right & can't see any way it would be cannon fire tbh. Where the russians were flying, any Ukrainian MiG within 100 km would be shot down and I don't know of any Ukrainian AA gun that could hit something 30,000 feet up. Maybe Ukraine surprised us again. Or russian air defence fucked up 😂
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