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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 13, 2022 0:07:29 GMT
Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights: I’m no expert but the gap between the firing and the impact seems unbelievably short over the distance involved? Not sure but relatively normal shell types leaves the muzzle of a T-64 at about a mile per second I think.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 13, 2022 14:45:09 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Dec 13, 2022 17:39:23 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work. People have been saying for ages that they are running out of munitions but they’ve intensified the bombing and misery lately and there doesn’t be an end in sight to it. Your calculation also excluded the ability to get shells from 3rd parties?
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 13, 2022 19:27:56 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work. People have been saying for ages that they are running out of munitions but they’ve intensified the bombing and misery lately and there doesn’t be an end in sight to it. Your calculation also excluded the ability to get shells from 3rd parties? Yeah, Iran and NK could prop them up longer. I imagine that Russia could eventually make millions more every year too. From comments plus satellites Russia is firing way less than May-July. The high estimates I've seen have gone from 60k/day down to about 20k. People also blamed HIMARS- maybe Russia had the shells but just can't get them to the guns quickly enough because they had to pull the magazines out of missile range? Russia's ballistic missiles show a pattern. First there were dozens of modern Iskander launches every week or even per day. Now it's almost all repurposed old S-300s. But Estonia's numbers say Russia can keep simple artillery shooting at the current rate for ages.
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Post by longdistancekiddie on Dec 13, 2022 21:12:11 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work. How many did the US drop on Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria,. ?
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 13, 2022 21:37:37 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work. How many did the US drop on Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria,. ? Probably loads fewer artillery shells. The 'murrican budget reports under 300k standard 155 mm shells per year. Some years just 25k. Not much versus Russia's claimed millions per year. Russia has 4-7 self-propelled guns for each American SPG. The US relies heavily on precision weapons, aircraft & drones. I couldn't find the numbers from Iraq war times but they didn't have enough planes and drones to match the sheer explosive power of Russia's claimed peaks of 60k shells/day. There's a big difference in how Russia and the US go about blowing the shit out of places.
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Post by questionable on Dec 13, 2022 22:02:14 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work. Patriots supplied to Ukraine frees up long range missiles apparently that otherwise were used for ground to air purposes, according to Twitter these Ukrainian missiles will now be used to concentrate on Russian ground targets,
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 13, 2022 23:00:55 GMT
How long can Russia keep bombing things? Estonian intelligence claims Russia's used 17 million shells, has ~10 million more and are making 3-4 million each year. If true then Russia can fight heavily for another year but can't do many more offensives like in Sievierodonetsk in summer. Other experts are saying Russia has less because the older shells they're digging up often won't work. Patriots supplied to Ukraine frees up long range missiles apparently that otherwise were used for ground to air purposes, according to Twitter these Ukrainian missiles will now be used to concentrate on Russian ground targets, Even if Ukraine gets patriots I'll bet against them doing much ground attack with the freed up AA. Let's check in future and laugh at me for being dumb if I'm wrong. Patriots could free up S-300s, which are excellent at air defence and kinda crap at ground attack. I think Ukraine wants excellent air defence more than inaccurate ground attacks. Let's see!
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 14, 2022 5:40:47 GMT
Very pro-Ukraine source thinks things are bad in Bakhmut.
As others said above, losing Bakhmut probably isn't a huge deal but it depends on casualties, and Russia wants it for propaganda. We might see it in the news a lot more in the coming months.
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Post by musik on Dec 15, 2022 1:26:44 GMT
Heard an interview with the Big Boss in the swedish military defence tonight saying J Stoltenberg was right, there is definitely a risk it will be a large scale Russia vs Nato war.
It won't necessary mean only if Russia start with nuclear weapons, chemical weapons are probably enough to make a military response from Nato's side.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 15, 2022 17:21:58 GMT
Thread showing map changes where Ukraine has attacked since 1st October.
It shows there has been more progress in the north at the Kharkiv-Luhansk border but things have been really really slow.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 15, 2022 18:14:08 GMT
Another thread from trustworthy source.
Russia says Ukraine is shelling Donetsk city, which Russia controls.
Russian video shows the shells arriving from the east, which Russia also controls.
So it's probably Russian artillery.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 15, 2022 23:16:59 GMT
Another thread from trustworthy source. Russia says Ukraine is shelling Donetsk city, which Russia controls. Russian video shows the shells arriving from the east, which Russia also controls. So it's probably Russian artillery.
So, let me get this right ... the Russians think, that by them turning the map up-side down, this then means, that people will believe that the missiles are coming from the West?
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 16, 2022 1:00:09 GMT
Another thread from trustworthy source. Russia says Ukraine is shelling Donetsk city, which Russia controls. Russian video shows the shells arriving from the east, which Russia also controls. So it's probably Russian artillery. So, let me get this right ... the Russians think, that by them turning the map up-side down, this then means, that people will believe that the missiles are coming from the West? Who knows what they think... Maybe that was just how the video was taken. There have been lots of these things. Russia says Kramatorsk train station was hit by Ukraine because the attack was Tochka missiles and Russia doesn't have any. Like a week later Russia was filming their own Tochkas again. There was another one where they said it was Ukraine but the unexploded rockets landed in the ground clearly fired from Russian positions. And plenty of explosions in Donetsk have been on the sides of buildings that are only hittable from Russian positions.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 16, 2022 10:13:33 GMT
So, let me get this right ... the Russians think, that by them turning the map up-side down, this then means, that people will believe that the missiles are coming from the West? Who knows what they think... Maybe that was just how the video was taken. There have been lots of these things. Russia says Kramatorsk train station was hit by Ukraine because the attack was Tochka missiles and Russia doesn't have any. Like a week later Russia was filming their own Tochkas again. There was another one where they said it was Ukraine but the unexploded rockets landed in the ground clearly fired from Russian positions. And plenty of explosions in Donetsk have been on the sides of buildings that are only hittable from Russian positions. I was reading the thread, that's exactly what they DID do! 🤦♂️🙄
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 16, 2022 15:40:10 GMT
Who knows what they think... Maybe that was just how the video was taken. There have been lots of these things. Russia says Kramatorsk train station was hit by Ukraine because the attack was Tochka missiles and Russia doesn't have any. Like a week later Russia was filming their own Tochkas again. There was another one where they said it was Ukraine but the unexploded rockets landed in the ground clearly fired from Russian positions. And plenty of explosions in Donetsk have been on the sides of buildings that are only hittable from Russian positions. I was reading the thread, that's exactly what they DID do! 🤦♂️🙄 Maybe I only saw a cut version of the video since the Telegram channel source is based in Donbas, so the people there would have noticed. I assumed the twitter guy added the zoom out parts, but maybe there's a full version in Russia. It wouldn't surprise me! With Russians propaganda the one with the videogame as "proof" of Americans giving air support to ISIS sticks out. So does the one with the drag queen wig, three copies of the Sims and a Nazi flag as proof of gay Ukrainian Nazis.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 16, 2022 15:44:37 GMT
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Post by iancransonsknees on Dec 19, 2022 7:27:05 GMT
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Post by Gods on Dec 19, 2022 16:19:20 GMT
Putin and Lavrov both in Belarus. Another sign that a second attack from the north against Kyiv may be coming. They won't make the same mistakes again. It may be my natural pessimism but I am yet to buy the narrative this is a war which Russia cannot win. As in WW2, they have depth. And in Putin they have a person who will never stop. Fears Belarus will be drawn into Ukraine
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 20, 2022 1:41:19 GMT
Putin and Lavrov both in Belarus. Another sign that a second attack from the north against Kyiv may be coming. They won't make the same mistakes again. It may be my natural pessimism but I am yet to buy the narrative this is a war which Russia cannot win. As in WW2, they have depth. And in Putin they have a person who will never stop. Fears Belarus will be drawn into UkraineBut with what army? Russia could throw 50k middle aged lads who were cleaning toilets five months before at Kyiv, a city which is now bristling with prepared defences. Will that be a big success? How? EDIT: fwiw Belarus is listed as having almost 900 active tanks. They've sent a hundred to Russia already.
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Post by hcstokie on Dec 20, 2022 7:32:29 GMT
Putin and Lavrov both in Belarus. Another sign that a second attack from the north against Kyiv may be coming. They won't make the same mistakes again. It may be my natural pessimism but I am yet to buy the narrative this is a war which Russia cannot win. As in WW2, they have depth. And in Putin they have a person who will never stop. Fears Belarus will be drawn into UkraineThe noises I’ve heard suggest it’s more likely that Putin is visiting with his begging bowl out asking Belarus to supply Russians with equipment. The fact he’s visited Belarus is symbolic as usually it’s the other way around.
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Post by lordb on Dec 20, 2022 8:42:21 GMT
Putin and Lavrov both in Belarus. Another sign that a second attack from the north against Kyiv may be coming. They won't make the same mistakes again. It may be my natural pessimism but I am yet to buy the narrative this is a war which Russia cannot win. As in WW2, they have depth. And in Putin they have a person who will never stop. Fears Belarus will be drawn into UkraineOn the contrary like dictators everywhere Putin will make the same mistakes over and over again until one of his own puts a bullet in his back
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Post by Northy on Dec 20, 2022 9:16:34 GMT
He probably is there with the begging bowl out if these numbers are true
The Ukrainian General Staff has now published its current figures on the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine (as of December 19, 2022). Accordingly, Russia has already lost 98,800 soldiers since the end of February – an increase of 520 compared to the previous day. As a result, Russian losses could break the 100,000 mark this week. There are also 5,969 armed vehicles, 4,592 vehicles and tankers, 2,988 tanks, 1,953 artillery systems, 1,657 unmanned aerial vehicles, 410 multiple rocket launchers, 281 airplanes, 264 helicopters, 653 cruise missiles, 212 air defense systems, 175 pieces of special equipment and 16 boats.
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Post by rickyfullerbeer on Dec 20, 2022 11:15:05 GMT
Russia 'gifting' S-400s and Iksanders to Belarus ahead of a second potential attack towards Kyiv.
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Post by Gods on Dec 20, 2022 11:26:32 GMT
Russia 'gifting' S-400s and Iksanders to Belarus ahead of a second potential attack towards Kyiv. The more I read the more convinced I have become that Russia will have a second crack at Kyiv. Putin will not stop.
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Post by mrcoke on Dec 20, 2022 11:53:15 GMT
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Post by Northy on Dec 20, 2022 12:25:48 GMT
vorsprung durch technik
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Post by OldStokie on Dec 20, 2022 13:59:39 GMT
If Belarus does join this war then their cities and infrastructure should become legitimate targets for UKR. Lukashenko's tenure as President of Belarus is already crumbling and it could become the final act if they join this war for him to be deposed. He knows he's been treading a rocky path up to yet so he would have to be crazy to take his assistance to Russia any further. It may even be that NATO would join in against Belarus. They don't have nukes as backup to threaten anyone with.
OS.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 20, 2022 15:33:54 GMT
If Belarus does join this war then their cities and infrastructure should become legitimate targets for UKR. Lukashenko's tenure as President of Belarus is already crumbling and it could become the final act if they join this war for him to be deposed. He knows he's been treading a rocky path up to yet so he would have to be crazy to take his assistance to Russia any further. It may even be that NATO would join in against Belarus. They don't have nukes as backup to threaten anyone with. OS. Rail lines and artillery at the least. The whole main supply rail line is in range of HIMARS. Luka could get kicked out of power and Ukraine would have a new ally.
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Post by lordb on Dec 20, 2022 16:07:20 GMT
If Belarus does join this war then their cities and infrastructure should become legitimate targets for UKR. Lukashenko's tenure as President of Belarus is already crumbling and it could become the final act if they join this war for him to be deposed. He knows he's been treading a rocky path up to yet so he would have to be crazy to take his assistance to Russia any further. It may even be that NATO would join in against Belarus. They don't have nukes as backup to threaten anyone with. OS. Rail lines and artillery at the least. The whole main supply rail line is in range of HIMARS. Luka could get kicked out of power and Ukraine would have a new ally. Got to be ripe for regime collapse, an expensive failing war could just get that going NATO, the EU need to have plans ready to facilitate if they can
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