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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2020 23:45:17 GMT
Absolutely amazed. Actually gobsmacked
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Post by mrteddysalad on Aug 15, 2020 0:33:30 GMT
he basically seems like Vokes with a better work rate
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Post by WorkingclassHero on Aug 15, 2020 1:53:39 GMT
he basically seems like Vokes with a better work rate Not checked but in my view it is swapping a 1 in 4 striker for a 1 in 2.5 next season. Upgrade
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Post by meirparkpotter on Aug 15, 2020 2:08:05 GMT
he basically seems like Vokes with a better work rate Not checked but in my view it is swapping a 1 in 4 striker for a 1 in 2.5 next season. Upgrade More like 1 in 2 statistically speaking. I've got no problem with this signing. He offers more than Gregors and Vokes so...
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leegthestokie
Academy Starlet
Theres Only One Liam Lawrence!!
Posts: 219
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Post by leegthestokie on Aug 15, 2020 2:22:37 GMT
Great signing knows where the net is billy sharp got about 23 goals for sheff utd in championship when they went up and he was bout 32
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Post by hyaduck on Aug 15, 2020 3:12:19 GMT
How long a contract have we given him? 2 year apparently. That's ridiculous, we should given him 4
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Post by David Brent on Aug 15, 2020 6:26:06 GMT
Well something has to now give in the striker dept doesn’t it as no way we’d go in with 5 front line strikers? My money on Afobe or Gregory off? If Afobe leaves because we’ve signed fletcher that’ll be a massive mistake. Especially if he’s sold to a championship rival
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Post by Ex-term-oat-cake on Aug 15, 2020 6:54:15 GMT
Definitely offload Afobe.
And Ince. Unless Fletcher has been brought in partly to put a rocket up Ince.
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Post by george2again on Aug 15, 2020 6:58:13 GMT
Need to add some explosive pace to the side now or will be so one paced.
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Post by blackpoolred on Aug 15, 2020 7:08:42 GMT
Great signing knows where the net is billy sharp got about 23 goals for sheff utd in championship when they went up and he was bout 32 But he is a 34-year-old 10 goals a season player - Gregory has a miles better scoring record than him. Unless he suddenly becomes a great striker in his twilight years - we have yet another extremely average aging player. I can only think he has been brought to the club in a coaching role
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Post by pottersrule on Aug 15, 2020 7:28:32 GMT
he basically seems like Vokes with a better work rate Far more mobile than Vokes and a lot more productive.
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Aug 15, 2020 7:34:07 GMT
Great signing knows where the net is billy sharp got about 23 goals for sheff utd in championship when they went up and he was bout 32 But he is a 34-year-old 10 goals a season player - Gregory has a miles better scoring record than him. Unless he suddenly becomes a great striker in his twilight years - we have yet another extremely average aging player. I can only think he has been brought to the club in a coaching role Excuse me, I may be slow on the uptake but who is a 34 year old 10 goals a season player?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Aug 15, 2020 7:34:13 GMT
Definitely offload Afobe. And Ince. Unless Fletcher has been brought in partly to put a rocket up Ince. I’d be amazed if we sold Afobe the way O’Neill has been talking him up
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Aug 15, 2020 7:39:38 GMT
Definitely offload Afobe. And Ince. Unless Fletcher has been brought in partly to put a rocket up Ince. I’d be amazed if we sold Afobe the way O’Neill has been talking him up I agree. Gregory looks the more likely departure to me. He said he wants to stay but will that be true with Afobe and Fletcher added to the list of strikers we had last season?
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2020 7:44:18 GMT
Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. Assuming he's on a downward trend given his age, that puts him just below Afobe & Vokes from last season, but above Gregory & Campbell. He's averaged around 2,000 Championship playing minutes with a high of 2500 in 2018/19. If he plays at the high end of that projection at 33, he'll contribute around ten non penalty goals. He's split his shot based & header based NP xG around 60/40, which makes his chance taking profile closest to Vokes and least like Campbell, Gregory & Afobe in that order. His expected assits were in the Gregory, Campbell range & above Vokes & Afobe (from 2018/19 & 2019/20 with Stoke & BC). He does stand out as someone who looks after the ball really well. We haven't had a forward who does as well as Fletcher has at ball retention when playing up top in our two Championship seasons. Here's a summary of all the non pen xG per 90 & Fletcher's shot map for SW last season. Take out the big orange blob to remove the penalties. Size of the circle equates to the quality of the chance. Orange are goals, blue are saves/misses & grey is the shots taken by the rest of the Wednesday side. Attachment Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 7:50:52 GMT
Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. Assuming he's on a downward trend given his age, that puts him just below Afobe & Vokes from last season, but above Gregory & Campbell. He's averaged around 2,000 Championship playing minutes with a high of 2500 in 2018/19. If he plays at the high end of that projection at 33, he'll contribute around ten non penalty goals. He's split his shot based & header based NP xG around 60/40, which makes his chance taking profile closest to Vokes and least like Campbell, Gregory & Afobe in that order. His expected assits were in the Gregory, Campbell range & above Vokes & Afobe (from 2018/19 & 2019/20 with Stoke & BC). He does stand out as someone who looks after the ball really well. We haven't had a forward who does as well as Fletcher has at ball retention when playing up top in our two Championship seasons. Here's a summary of all the non pen xG per 90 & Fletcher's shot map for SW last season. Take out the big orange blob to remove the penalties. Size of the circle equates to the quality of the chance. Orange are goals, blue are saves/misses & grey is the shots taken by the rest of the Wednesday side. It would be interesting to get your hands on some other stats, to see if you can do a multivariate analysis on it to find the outlier as to what made his so 'successful' or 'potent' in 2018/19
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Aug 15, 2020 8:05:02 GMT
Doesn’t the thread usually change(title) once he’s signed 🤔
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Post by Gods on Aug 15, 2020 8:08:41 GMT
Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. Assuming he's on a downward trend given his age, that puts him just below Afobe & Vokes from last season, but above Gregory & Campbell. He's averaged around 2,000 Championship playing minutes with a high of 2500 in 2018/19. If he plays at the high end of that projection at 33, he'll contribute around ten non penalty goals. He's split his shot based & header based NP xG around 60/40, which makes his chance taking profile closest to Vokes and least like Campbell, Gregory & Afobe in that order. His expected assits were in the Gregory, Campbell range & above Vokes & Afobe (from 2018/19 & 2019/20 with Stoke & BC). He does stand out as someone who looks after the ball really well. We haven't had a forward who does as well as Fletcher has at ball retention when playing up top in our two Championship seasons. Here's a summary of all the non pen xG per 90 & Fletcher's shot map for SW last season. Take out the big orange blob to remove the penalties. Size of the circle equates to the quality of the chance. Orange are goals, blue are saves/misses & grey is the shots taken by the rest of the Wednesday side. View AttachmentSorry what does this mean please? >>Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. I get you have removed penalties but 'per 90' of what? and 'got on the end of' means scored? And '0.36' is that a percentage 36%? And why is there 4 seasons of Fletcher, 2 of Afobe and 1 of the others? I like you analysis in general but you have me with this one
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 15, 2020 8:12:50 GMT
Definitely offload Afobe. And Ince. Unless Fletcher has been brought in partly to put a rocket up Ince. I’d be amazed if we sold Afobe the way O’Neill has been talking him up Afobe has a major attitude problem; his body language shouted it when he played for us. He hasn't scored a significant number of goals for 4 seasons. MON is clearly trying to butter him up to make him feel loved and wanted, but Fletcher is far more the type of player MON wants to us to build a successful team.
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Post by adamsson on Aug 15, 2020 8:18:13 GMT
Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. Assuming he's on a downward trend given his age, that puts him just below Afobe & Vokes from last season, but above Gregory & Campbell. He's averaged around 2,000 Championship playing minutes with a high of 2500 in 2018/19. If he plays at the high end of that projection at 33, he'll contribute around ten non penalty goals. He's split his shot based & header based NP xG around 60/40, which makes his chance taking profile closest to Vokes and least like Campbell, Gregory & Afobe in that order. His expected assits were in the Gregory, Campbell range & above Vokes & Afobe (from 2018/19 & 2019/20 with Stoke & BC). He does stand out as someone who looks after the ball really well. We haven't had a forward who does as well as Fletcher has at ball retention when playing up top in our two Championship seasons. Here's a summary of all the non pen xG per 90 & Fletcher's shot map for SW last season. Take out the big orange blob to remove the penalties. Size of the circle equates to the quality of the chance. Orange are goals, blue are saves/misses & grey is the shots taken by the rest of the Wednesday side. View AttachmentSorry what does this mean please? >>Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. I get you have removed penalties but 'per 90' of what? and 'got on the end of' means scored? And '0.36' is that a percentage 36%? And why is there 4 seasons of Fletcher, 2 of Afobe and 1 of the others? I like you analysis in general but you have me with this one It means he has spent too long playing with the stats without realising they are meaningless
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2020 8:25:31 GMT
It would be interesting to get your hands on some other stats, to see if you can do a multivariate analysis on it to find the outlier as to what made his so 'successful' or 'potent' in 2018/19 Strikers are somewhat dependent on the service they get. Bannan & Reach have been numerically the most prolific suppliers of chances to Fletcher and 2018/19 was an uncharacteristically good year for the Reach/Fletcher combo. The former created more xG chances for the latter in 2018/19 than he did in the other three seasons combined.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2020 8:30:34 GMT
It would be interesting to get your hands on some other stats, to see if you can do a multivariate analysis on it to find the outlier as to what made his so 'successful' or 'potent' in 2018/19 Strikers are somewhat dependent on the service they get. Bannan & Reach have been numerically the most prolific suppliers of chances to Fletcher and 2018/19 was an uncharacteristically good year for the Reach/Fletcher combo. The former created more xG chances for the latter in 2018/19 than he did in the other three seasons combined. From what area's of the pitch were these chances created? What types of passes were they? What were the primary passes out from the back? Through midfield, bounced off a target man into the second or third phase, from wide areas (I know Bannan likes to drift out wide from time to time) or were the likes of Bannan and Reach serviced from a high press turnover? It would be interesting to know where all of Fletchers quality chances came from and how that slots into our natural shape and philosophy under O'Neill and/or how we'll play going forward once O'Neill has completed his transfer business?
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2020 8:41:37 GMT
Sorry what does this mean please? >>Fletcher's got on the end of an average of 0.36 non penalty expected goals per 90 during the last four Championship seasons. I get you have removed penalties but 'per 90' of what? and 'got on the end of' means scored? And '0.36' is that a percentage 36%? And why is there 4 seasons of Fletcher, 2 of Afobe and 1 of the others? I like you analysis in general but you have me with this one Every chance has a likelihood of going in the net. A shot from the edge of the box goes in around 5% of the time. Therefore it has an xG of 0.05. A shot from five yards goes in around 60% of the time. It has an xG of 0.6. Fletcher has got on the end of non penalty chances worth a total of 7.46xG in his 2018 minutes of playing time during 2019/20. That works out at 0.33 xG per 90 minutes for this season. Repeat that and he'll get on the end of chances which will typically result in a non penalty goal every three games. Single seasons were chosen for the Stoke players to show what they did last season, Afobe's 2018/19 was his last full year at Stoke. Fletcher's four seasons were chosen to give Championship context to his underlying figures whilst going from peak age to decline. He's arrested that decline more than most.
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2020 8:44:49 GMT
It means he has spent too long playing with the stats without realising they are meaningless Hey, you've taken time to give career advice on my current employment. I'm flattered. I'll totally disregard it. thanks anyway.
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Post by tachyon on Aug 15, 2020 9:23:45 GMT
From what area's of the pitch were these chances created? What types of passes were they? What were the primary passes out from the back? Through midfield, bounced off a target man into the second or third phase, from wide areas (I know Bannan likes to drift out wide from time to time) or were the likes of Bannan and Reach serviced from a high press turnover? It would be interesting to know where all of Fletchers quality chances came from and how that slots into our natural shape and philosophy under O'Neill and/or how we'll play going forward once O'Neill has completed his transfer business? Yes, with the level of granular data available it's possible to see where the passes are originating, how much value they add if they're successfully received, under which phase of play & how a player contributes either as a passer, receiver or whether he adds value by running with the ball or passing it. Heat maps are the usual way to go. I only had a quick look at Fletcher last night after he signed. But a couple of things stand out. He was more reliant than previously on chances from set pieces & corners in 2019/20. But he's also been pretty good at creating chances with his own individual skill and that does appear to be holding up. (Only TC currently has that attribute in the Stoke lineup).
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Post by alanhudson1972 on Aug 15, 2020 9:46:09 GMT
Good for the dressing room, experienced For crying out loud we might be shit on the field but by God, we've got the most experienced and squeaky clean dressing room this side of the Irrawaddy Not for me this signing, another reject from the Wednesday fire sale, MON is filling the club with over paid has beens, we have seen this before and it didn't end well.
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Post by Gods on Aug 15, 2020 9:50:53 GMT
It would be interesting to get your hands on some other stats, to see if you can do a multivariate analysis on it to find the outlier as to what made his so 'successful' or 'potent' in 2018/19 Strikers are somewhat dependent on the service they get. Bannan & Reach have been numerically the most prolific suppliers of chances to Fletcher and 2018/19 was an uncharacteristically good year for the Reach/Fletcher combo. The former created more xG chances for the latter in 2018/19 than he did in the other three seasons combined. Got it now, I think, it's conversion rate per chance. So for example '0.25 per 90' means you converted 25% of your last 90 chances?
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Post by harlequin on Aug 15, 2020 9:53:35 GMT
I don't mind this one. The striker position is where we need a shake up and can afford to gamble.
Reading through the Sheffield United forums the opinions seem universally positive, regarding him as essential, dependant on him and toothless without him. This is in a team with Rhodes who was a scoring sensation not long ago but seems to have suffered a similar fall from grace as Ince.
The opinion on him seemed to sour as soon as he left, citing that he's injury prone.
There's also the recurring suggestion that the team was built around him that is put forward as a reason for his success. Whether he'll find Stoke as accommodating is anyone's guess.
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Aug 15, 2020 10:15:31 GMT
Strikers are somewhat dependent on the service they get. Bannan & Reach have been numerically the most prolific suppliers of chances to Fletcher and 2018/19 was an uncharacteristically good year for the Reach/Fletcher combo. The former created more xG chances for the latter in 2018/19 than he did in the other three seasons combined. Got it now, I think, it's conversion rate per chance. So for example '0.25 per 90' means you converted 25% of your last 90 chances? I assumed the 90 referred to 90 minutes.
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Post by Gods on Aug 15, 2020 10:38:57 GMT
Got it now, I think, it's conversion rate per chance. So for example '0.25 per 90' means you converted 25% of your last 90 chances? I assumed the 90 referred to 90 minutes. Oh, okay, I thought 90 seemed a little random! I think I get it now, has nothing to do with chance conversion rate? '0.25 per 90' means you score a quarter of a goal on average in any given match, you are in essence a '1 in 4' man?
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