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Post by gawa on Mar 1, 2024 11:02:56 GMT
i suspect more than a handful of seats would be at risk in London , Bradford, Birmingham , leicester , peterborough etc if an independant pro hamas led palestine candidate was to enter the fray eg dianne abbot, corbyn
Looks like one of those " handful of seats " has been lost already ?
And its not in one of the areas i specifically mentioned either , although it should have been high on the list given the issues referrred to previously in the press.
Interesting comments/ analysis on GB news this morning , Michael Portillo ( who i think is a fair minded tory ) said he thought the genie was out of the bottle . i not sure what he was implying but i personally believe that this will embolden ethnic communities to move away from Labour to a candidate who more closely reflects their traditional values rather than just their names.
Ethnic communities? Rochdale is 74% white Phil. The genie is out of the bottle because this highlights that the mythical "silent majority" doesn't exist and never has. A community where 3 in 4 people are white voted for Galloway. A ceasefire in Gaza isn't a Muslim thing, its something the majority of decent people in this country support and Rochdale is proof of that. It's also highlighted that the establishment are losing their grip. Reform, Lib Dem, Conservstive and Labour are all pro Israel. They're isolating alot of voters with their stance and its not just Muslim voters. The Borough of Rochdale is 74% white and only 18.8% identify as Islam.
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Post by phileetin on Mar 1, 2024 11:51:25 GMT
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Post by prestwichpotter on Mar 1, 2024 11:55:44 GMT
74% White 18.5% Asian 3.5% Afro Caribbean 2.4% Mixed Etnicity 1.6% Other From gov.co.uk
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Mar 1, 2024 11:57:49 GMT
Looks like one of those " handful of seats " has been lost already ?
And its not in one of the areas i specifically mentioned either , although it should have been high on the list given the issues referrred to previously in the press.
Interesting comments/ analysis on GB news this morning , Michael Portillo ( who i think is a fair minded tory ) said he thought the genie was out of the bottle . i not sure what he was implying but i personally believe that this will embolden ethnic communities to move away from Labour to a candidate who more closely reflects their traditional values rather than just their names.
Ethnic communities? Rochdale is 74% white Phil. The genie is out of the bottle because this highlights that the mythical "silent majority" doesn't exist and never has. A community where 3 in 4 people are white voted for Galloway. A ceasefire in Gaza isn't a Muslim thing, its something the majority of decent people in this country support and Rochdale is proof of that. It's also highlighted that the establishment are losing their grip. Reform, Lib Dem, Conservstive and Labour are all pro Israel. They're isolating alot of voters with their stance and its not just Muslim voters. The Borough of Rochdale is 74% white and only 18.8% identify as Islam. Good point....so at the GE will there be a bigger turnout of the non Muslim vote , who might prioritise other things than Gaza?
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Post by prestwichpotter on Mar 1, 2024 12:03:42 GMT
Ethnic communities? Rochdale is 74% white Phil. The genie is out of the bottle because this highlights that the mythical "silent majority" doesn't exist and never has. A community where 3 in 4 people are white voted for Galloway. A ceasefire in Gaza isn't a Muslim thing, its something the majority of decent people in this country support and Rochdale is proof of that. It's also highlighted that the establishment are losing their grip. Reform, Lib Dem, Conservstive and Labour are all pro Israel. They're isolating alot of voters with their stance and its not just Muslim voters. The Borough of Rochdale is 74% white and only 18.8% identify as Islam. Good point....so at the GE will there be a bigger turnout of the non Muslim vote , who might prioritise other things than Gaza? Gaza will be a red line for many voters Muslim or otherwise, even more so if Israel are allowed to carry on as is........
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2024 12:05:25 GMT
Ethnic communities? Rochdale is 74% white Phil. The genie is out of the bottle because this highlights that the mythical "silent majority" doesn't exist and never has. A community where 3 in 4 people are white voted for Galloway. A ceasefire in Gaza isn't a Muslim thing, its something the majority of decent people in this country support and Rochdale is proof of that. It's also highlighted that the establishment are losing their grip. Reform, Lib Dem, Conservstive and Labour are all pro Israel. They're isolating alot of voters with their stance and its not just Muslim voters. The Borough of Rochdale is 74% white and only 18.8% identify as Islam. Good point....so at the GE will there be a bigger turnout of the non Muslim vote , who might prioritise other things than Gaza? I don’t think Rochdale was unexpected given that it was a pretty quick election process, Labour removed their candidate a few days before, Tory’s suck and their wasn’t that much of a choice otherwise. The vote probably would have swung Labour if Starmer hadn’t shot the party in the foot again.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2024 12:15:02 GMT
i suspect more than a handful of seats would be at risk in London , Bradford, Birmingham , leicester , peterborough etc if an independant pro hamas led palestine candidate was to enter the fray eg dianne abbot, corbyn
Looks like one of those " handful of seats " has been lost already ?
And its not in one of the areas i specifically mentioned either , although it should have been high on the list given the issues referrred to previously in the press.
Interesting comments/ analysis on GB news this morning , Michael Portillo ( who i think is a fair minded tory ) said he thought the genie was out of the bottle . i not sure what he was implying but i personally believe that this will embolden ethnic communities to move away from Labour to a candidate who more closely reflects their traditional values rather than just their names.
What singular views are they? Muslims in this country have either left Muslim majority countries because they preferred Western democracy or they were born into a Western democracy. Do white Christians have one solitary political belief system? If not, why would Muslims? I’ve never actually met a Muslim who believes in the extremes of the Sharia Law boogeyman. I’ve spoken to plenty who don’t like seeing a Palestinian genocide. I only know two Jewish people but they don’t like that either. The next election will be won by Labour. Not because they are good but because everyone else is either worse (Tory’s) or at the very least, powerless to stop them.
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Post by gawa on Mar 1, 2024 12:22:45 GMT
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Post by gawa on Mar 1, 2024 12:34:31 GMT
Ethnic communities? Rochdale is 74% white Phil. The genie is out of the bottle because this highlights that the mythical "silent majority" doesn't exist and never has. A community where 3 in 4 people are white voted for Galloway. A ceasefire in Gaza isn't a Muslim thing, its something the majority of decent people in this country support and Rochdale is proof of that. It's also highlighted that the establishment are losing their grip. Reform, Lib Dem, Conservstive and Labour are all pro Israel. They're isolating alot of voters with their stance and its not just Muslim voters. The Borough of Rochdale is 74% white and only 18.8% identify as Islam. Good point....so at the GE will there be a bigger turnout of the non Muslim vote , who might prioritise other things than Gaza? I think rochdale is unique given what happened with the Labour candidate. But it puts starmer in a very difficult position now where his Gaza position is going to cost him and Labour alot of votes. I personally think there are key figures as well which are trying to make out that its only Muslims who care about what's happening in gaza when it isn't at all. The rochdale vote is testament to that. As are posts on this forum and other online communities. Reform, conservative, Labour and lib dem are alienating alot of voters with their stance. Wherever you stand on the political spectrum, if things continue along the current trajectory I think we are going to have a very exciting election. I imagine a few more twists and turns will arise before then too. If labour want to win they may need to consider ousting Starmer for someone like Andy Burnham who is more pro gaza but not quite as far left as the likes of Corbyn. Problem is the establishment and media are mostly pro Israel so any labour leader who isn't won't get their support unless they masquerade as something they're not and change position when elected That's just my opinion. Who knows what will happen. But this has certainly put a spanner in the works anyway. And the more people who peacefully support a peace fire get called pro hamas hate marching mobs with no leaders rebuking it. The less support those parties will get from a large chunk of the electorate.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Mar 1, 2024 12:39:20 GMT
Good point....so at the GE will there be a bigger turnout of the non Muslim vote , who might prioritise other things than Gaza? I think rochdale is unique given what happened with the Labour candidate. But it puts starmer in a very difficult position now where his Gaza position is going to cost him and Labour alot of votes. I personally think there are key figures as well which are trying to make out that its only Muslims who care about what's happening in gaza when it isn't at all. The rochdale vote is testament to that. As are posts on this forum and other online communities. Reform, conservative, Labour and lib dem are alienating alot of voters with their stance. Wherever you stand on the political spectrum, if things continue along the current trajectory I think we are going to have a very exciting election. I imagine a few more twists and turns will arise before then too. If labour want to win they may need to consider ousting Starmer for someone like Andy Burnham who is more pro gaza but not quite as far left as the likes of Corbyn. Problem is the establishment and media are mostly pro Israel so any labour leader who isn't won't get their support unless they masquerade as something they're not and change position when elected That's just my opinion. Who knows what will happen. But this has certainly put a spanner in the works anyway. And the more people who peacefully support a peace fire get called pro hamas hate marching mobs with no leaders rebuking it. The less support those parties will get from a large chunk of the electorate. I agree with a lot of that Gawa. But for me Gaza!won't be abig issue at the next election ( except for the voters that the main parties have already alienated), the actual issues discussed will be the usual ones, I've listed above. For me electoral reform will be my main issue, knowing full well it will make very little headroad. We will probably end up with a government that the vast majority of people don't want.
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Post by adri2008 on Mar 1, 2024 13:10:35 GMT
Labour's master plan of promising to do bugger all and get into power by default is a dangerous one and is completely reliant on the Tories remaining as a busted flush. Mass apathy is on the cards and local issues will become more important.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Mar 1, 2024 13:25:41 GMT
Good point....so at the GE will there be a bigger turnout of the non Muslim vote , who might prioritise other things than Gaza? Gaza will be a red line for many voters Muslim or otherwise, even more so if Israel are allowed to carry on as is........ I think it will be a big red line for a lot of traditional (non Muslim) Labour voters too.
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Post by iancransonsknees on Mar 1, 2024 13:30:11 GMT
Labour's master plan of promising to do bugger all and get into power by default is a dangerous one and is completely reliant on the Tories remaining as a busted flush. Mass apathy is on the cards and local issues will become more important. I'd love to see an 'In the Thick of it's take on the situation
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Post by iancransonsknees on Mar 1, 2024 13:30:59 GMT
I think rochdale is unique given what happened with the Labour candidate. But it puts starmer in a very difficult position now where his Gaza position is going to cost him and Labour alot of votes. I personally think there are key figures as well which are trying to make out that its only Muslims who care about what's happening in gaza when it isn't at all. The rochdale vote is testament to that. As are posts on this forum and other online communities. Reform, conservative, Labour and lib dem are alienating alot of voters with their stance. Wherever you stand on the political spectrum, if things continue along the current trajectory I think we are going to have a very exciting election. I imagine a few more twists and turns will arise before then too. If labour want to win they may need to consider ousting Starmer for someone like Andy Burnham who is more pro gaza but not quite as far left as the likes of Corbyn. Problem is the establishment and media are mostly pro Israel so any labour leader who isn't won't get their support unless they masquerade as something they're not and change position when elected That's just my opinion. Who knows what will happen. But this has certainly put a spanner in the works anyway. And the more people who peacefully support a peace fire get called pro hamas hate marching mobs with no leaders rebuking it. The less support those parties will get from a large chunk of the electorate. I agree with a lot of that Gawa. But for me Gaza!won't be abig issue at the next election ( except for the voters that the main parties have already alienated), the actual issues discussed will be the usual ones, I've listed above. For me electoral reform will be my main issue, knowing full well it will make very little headroad. We will probably end up with a government that the vast majority of people don't want. That'll be the case whichever party wins I'm afraid.
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Post by OldStokie on Mar 1, 2024 13:56:29 GMT
Galloway is an opportunist and I disagree with him on most things but he will make the most of his time as an MP by attacking both Starmer and Sunak (and others), and because he's a very good orator, both had better watch out, especially on the topics of Gaza, anti-Semitism, Zionism, and Islamophobia. Expect fireworks now he's found a soapbox to preach from.
OS.
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Post by gawa on Mar 2, 2024 23:08:33 GMT
Not sure on legitimacy of source.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2024 23:12:05 GMT
Not sure on legitimacy of source. Not a chance they’d do this. A) I think he has too strong of a hold on the party and b) the only thing Labour has going for it at this point is some semblance of unity.
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Post by gawa on Mar 3, 2024 0:45:03 GMT
Not sure on legitimacy of source. Not a chance they’d do this. A) I think he has too strong of a hold on the party and b) the only thing Labour has going for it at this point is some semblance of unity. Ultimately I think it will come down to whatever the political analysts within the party predict. Rochdale seen a candidate who mainly ran on Gaza get more votes than labour, Conservative, Lib dem and reform added together. While all four of these parties continue to support slightly different flavours of the establishments position, they're effectively alienating a majority of voters to their own deterrent. If we look at the most recent by elections compared to 2019 and look at vote share for right wing (brexit/reform/conservative/britain first/ukip): Rochdale - 2024 (18.4%) / 2019 (39.4%) Wellingborough - 2024 (39.2%) / 2019 (62.2%) Kingswood - 2024 (45.8%) / 2019 (56.2%) Tamworth - 2023 (47.8%) / 2019 (68.1%) Mid Bedfordshire - 2013 (34.8%) / (59.8%) Rutherglen - 2013 (5.2%) / 2019 (15%) Selby - 2013 (38%) / 2019 (60.3%) Somerton - 2023 (30.3%) / 2019 (55.8%) Of course these are by election results which can at times be protest votes. But in pretty much all of those constituencies reform also stood so there were right wing alternatives to vote for. Labour have shifted further right and I imagine a number of moderate conservatives may have shifted towards them. In gaining those votes though and shifting that direction, the Labour left are alienated. And the only alternative in recent history has really been the green party which are highly climate focused. While I appreciate the importance of climate, its a global issue. A green government will have as much impact on global climate as a green MP in Bristol would have in the uk. Kier Starmer and Rishi Sunaks worst nightmare is a party which comes in and actually offers hope and a reason to vote for them while genuinely caring about what's happening in Gaza. If you tick both those boxes then you're going to eat into a massive chunk of the vote. And if that's going to cost a sizeable amount of seats then I wouldn't be surprised to see labour scrambling to change. They've already began through changing gaza position and pressuring the speaker to save face.
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Post by oggyoggy on Mar 3, 2024 9:13:13 GMT
Not a chance they’d do this. A) I think he has too strong of a hold on the party and b) the only thing Labour has going for it at this point is some semblance of unity. Ultimately I think it will come down to whatever the political analysts within the party predict. Rochdale seen a candidate who mainly ran on Gaza get more votes than labour, Conservative, Lib dem and reform added together. While all four of these parties continue to support slightly different flavours of the establishments position, they're effectively alienating a majority of voters to their own deterrent. If we look at the most recent by elections compared to 2019 and look at vote share for right wing (brexit/reform/conservative/britain first/ukip): Rochdale - 2024 (18.4%) / 2019 (39.4%) Wellingborough - 2024 (39.2%) / 2019 (62.2%) Kingswood - 2024 (45.8%) / 2019 (56.2%) Tamworth - 2023 (47.8%) / 2019 (68.1%) Mid Bedfordshire - 2013 (34.8%) / (59.8%) Rutherglen - 2013 (5.2%) / 2019 (15%) Selby - 2013 (38%) / 2019 (60.3%) Somerton - 2023 (30.3%) / 2019 (55.8%) Of course these are by election results which can at times be protest votes. But in pretty much all of those constituencies reform also stood so there were right wing alternatives to vote for. Labour have shifted further right and I imagine a number of moderate conservatives may have shifted towards them. In gaining those votes though and shifting that direction, the Labour left are alienated. And the only alternative in recent history has really been the green party which are highly climate focused. While I appreciate the importance of climate, its a global issue. A green government will have as much impact on global climate as a green MP in Bristol would have in the uk. Kier Starmer and Rishi Sunaks worst nightmare is a party which comes in and actually offers hope and a reason to vote for them while genuinely caring about what's happening in Gaza. If you tick both those boxes then you're going to eat into a massive chunk of the vote. And if that's going to cost a sizeable amount of seats then I wouldn't be surprised to see labour scrambling to change. They've already began through changing gaza position and pressuring the speaker to save face. By the polls, Starmer is doing brilliantly. Not a chance labour would get rid of him before the election. Unless of course plotters against him are desperate to remain in opposition and to give the tories as much chance of recovering as possible. Anyway, tory tax cuts planned to derail Labour plans such as free breakfast clubs in schools. Labour admitting that if the Tories remove non-doms status Labour cannot then use the funds saved for the breakfast clubs as then they have to cut from elsewhere when they get into power. Obviously if that happens everyone will say “another Starmer U turn”, but it shows yet again the risk in announcing any policy commitments before a manifesto, because it gets used against you as an act of self harm to the country by the opposition. Our political system is so broken.
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Post by professorplump on Mar 3, 2024 11:43:28 GMT
There is not a chance that Labour will ditch Starmer before the election. I also don't think Gaza will play as big a role in the election campaign as people think. The majority of people are much more concerned with issues like the cost of living, NHS, crime and immigration.
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Post by oggyoggy on Mar 3, 2024 11:44:27 GMT
There is not a chance that Labour will ditch Starmer before the election. I also don't think Gaza will play as big a role in the election campaign as people think. The majority of people are much more concerned with issues like the cost of living, NHS, crime and immigration. I absolutely agree.
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Post by gawa on Mar 3, 2024 12:20:13 GMT
There is not a chance that Labour will ditch Starmer before the election. I also don't think Gaza will play as big a role in the election campaign as people think. The majority of people are much more concerned with issues like the cost of living, NHS, crime and immigration. All of which starmer offers no solution or hope on.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2024 12:32:26 GMT
There is not a chance that Labour will ditch Starmer before the election. I also don't think Gaza will play as big a role in the election campaign as people think. The majority of people are much more concerned with issues like the cost of living, NHS, crime and immigration. I agree, to a point. I think that Labour will just win by default. Starmer is a 2010 Tory and that’s not as bad as a 2024 Tory. He may get some of the Tory center votes. I think that many of the left will still vote out of some form of duty/a need not to have Tories anymore. Many Tories won’t bother voting. Starmer will win by default, offer no significant change in direction and generally be as ineffective in leadership as he is in opposition.
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Post by iancransonsknees on Mar 3, 2024 16:12:09 GMT
There is not a chance that Labour will ditch Starmer before the election. I also don't think Gaza will play as big a role in the election campaign as people think. The majority of people are much more concerned with issues like the cost of living, NHS, crime and immigration. I agree, to a point. I think that Labour will just win by default. Starmer is a 2010 Tory and that’s not as bad as a 2024 Tory. He may get some of the Tory center votes. I think that many of the left will still vote out of some form of duty/a need not to have Tories anymore. Many Tories won’t bother voting. Starmer will win by default, offer no significant change in direction and generally be as ineffective in leadership as he is in opposition. I remember the euphoria in 1997 when Labour won, I was 16 and had known no different than a Tory government. Given this will be a similar changing of the guard after a similar length of time it'll be interesting to see whether anyone actually gives a fuck Starmer and his crew are that uninspiring.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Mar 3, 2024 21:56:57 GMT
Not sure on legitimacy of source. It's somone impersonating her...fake account.
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Post by cobhamstokey on Mar 3, 2024 22:33:49 GMT
There is not a chance that Labour will ditch Starmer before the election. I also don't think Gaza will play as big a role in the election campaign as people think. The majority of people are much more concerned with issues like the cost of living, NHS, crime and immigration. As it should be too The 4 mentioned issues are the top 4 things that a new government should be concentrating on in my opinion. Unlike what’s happening in Gaza they can also make a huge difference too.
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Post by phileetin on Mar 4, 2024 11:54:19 GMT
and starmers cunning plan to deal with those 4 issues is ?
At least reform have announced a plan .
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2024 12:14:23 GMT
and starmers cunning plan to deal with those 4 issues is ? At least reform have announced a plan . Which is great, but the only thing Reform will serve to do is increase the size of the Labour majority in govt.
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Post by wannabee on Mar 4, 2024 12:42:01 GMT
and starmers cunning plan to deal with those 4 issues is ? At least reform have announced a plan . Why wouldn't Reform announce its Fantasies when everyone ignores them as they will never be in a position to implement them Why should Labour announce their Manifesto ahead of GE being called only for the Tory’s to nick them as they have run out of ideas themselves
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Post by Paul Spencer on Mar 4, 2024 13:49:22 GMT
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