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Post by elystokie on Jun 3, 2020 9:12:56 GMT
I really wish this fiasco was happening in another country so I could laugh heartily at it rather than bloody cringing all the time.
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Post by Gods on Jun 3, 2020 9:18:32 GMT
God's amateur quack mathematics
8000 new infections per day (source ONS) 1% death rate 6 weeks from infection to dead
So of those infected today 80 will still be dying at the end of July
Now here is the massive HOWEVER.
You have to add to that anyone already infected today who goes on for more than 6 weeks.
Not sure what this number will be but it seems likely we will still be seeing 100+ deaths per day going in to August.
I suppose although unwelcome 100 deaths per day might be considered manageable
Provided it's not you of course!!
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Post by chad on Jun 3, 2020 9:37:45 GMT
God's amateur quack mathematics 8000 new infections per day (source ONS) 1% death rate 6 weeks from infection to dead So of those infected today 80 will still be dying at the end of July Now here is the massive HOWEVER. You have to add to that anyone already infected today who goes on for more than 6 weeks. Not sure what this number will be but it seems likely we will still be seeing 100+ deaths per day going in to August. I suppose although unwelcome 100 deaths per day might be considered manageable Provided it's not you of course!! 100 per day may be manageable but it’s far from acceptable I do think however it will be below this by the end of the month We must be getting better at treatment and the hot weather should have slowed it down. A professor in the Sun (🤔) this morning predicting zero by month end Using no maths at all I’d hope we’d be looking at 50 or less per day by month end with hopefully some zero days in July
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Post by OldStokie on Jun 3, 2020 9:38:40 GMT
I have no idea why, but I can't see half the links posted on The Oatie. Is it because I use a PC and most use a phone? I'm baffled.
BTW, where Boris gone to again? Has the lying bastard gone back into his fridge or is he taking time off to shag his new wench?
OS.
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Post by Davef on Jun 3, 2020 9:50:23 GMT
God's amateur quack mathematics 8000 new infections per day (source ONS) 1% death rate 6 weeks from infection to dead So of those infected today 80 will still be dying at the end of July Now here is the massive HOWEVER. You have to add to that anyone already infected today who goes on for more than 6 weeks. Not sure what this number will be but it seems likely we will still be seeing 100+ deaths per day going in to August. I suppose although unwelcome 100 deaths per day might be considered manageable Provided it's not you of course!! Is this current figure of 8,000 daily infections from the ONS Is correct, what kind of numbers were catching the virus back in February, March and April prior to the reported peak of cases?
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Post by noustie on Jun 3, 2020 9:53:45 GMT
God's amateur quack mathematics 8000 new infections per day (source ONS) 1% death rate 6 weeks from infection to dead So of those infected today 80 will still be dying at the end of July Now here is the massive HOWEVER. You have to add to that anyone already infected today who goes on for more than 6 weeks. Not sure what this number will be but it seems likely we will still be seeing 100+ deaths per day going in to August. I suppose although unwelcome 100 deaths per day might be considered manageable Provided it's not you of course!! Is this current figure of 8,000 daily infections from the ONS Is correct, what kind of numbers were catching the virus back in February, March and April prior to the reported peak of cases? I think the daily figure is around 15,000 when hospitals and care homes are included.
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Post by Gods on Jun 3, 2020 9:56:51 GMT
I have no idea why, but I can't see half the links posted on The Oatie. Is it because I use a PC and most use a phone? I'm baffled. BTW, where Boris gone to again? Has the lying bastard gone back into his fridge or is he taking time off to shag his new wench? OS. I use PC and Phone and see the links on both. No consolation to you of course :-) Does prove its technically possible though!
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Post by Gods on Jun 3, 2020 10:00:13 GMT
God's amateur quack mathematics 8000 new infections per day (source ONS) 1% death rate 6 weeks from infection to dead So of those infected today 80 will still be dying at the end of July Now here is the massive HOWEVER. You have to add to that anyone already infected today who goes on for more than 6 weeks. Not sure what this number will be but it seems likely we will still be seeing 100+ deaths per day going in to August. I suppose although unwelcome 100 deaths per day might be considered manageable Provided it's not you of course!! Is this current figure of 8,000 daily infections from the ONS Is correct, what kind of numbers were catching the virus back in February, March and April prior to the reported peak of cases? Dunno but it must have been tearing through London and heading North like wild fire while we were still doing elbow hand shakes and singing the National Anthem while we washed our hands! 4 weeks too late locking down? I think so but I'm no expert.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Jun 3, 2020 10:00:51 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics. There is a whole different discussion to be had here and it is all about how people with a different colour skin to the majority are treated by the authorities. It's quite pertinent at this moment in time given what is happening elsewhere in the world.
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Post by Davef on Jun 3, 2020 10:01:48 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics. BAME are more susceptible to other diseases like diabetes, hypertension and heart disease, all health issues which put you in the vulnerable category for catching Covid-19. The figures are all there if you go to the relevant websites. On top of that there is mounting evidence that Vitamin D deficiency - prevalent in those with darker skin - is found in people who've succumbed to the disease. I'm not sure I can remember much fuss being made about these statistics prior to this pandemic. As for BAME receiving more fines for breaking lockdown rules, well isn't is statistically proven that young black men are more likely to be stopped by police on the street than whites? I'm not really sure that proves anything.
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Post by 828492 on Jun 3, 2020 10:03:31 GMT
I have no idea why, but I can't see half the links posted on The Oatie. Is it because I use a PC and most use a phone? I'm baffled. BTW, where Boris gone to again? Has the lying bastard gone back into his fridge or is he taking time off to shag his new wench? OS. Someone on the adverts thread on the EE board mentions clicking the cog symbol in the top righthand corner nest to the Quote button. Worth a try?
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 3, 2020 10:08:42 GMT
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whakka
Youth Player
Posts: 322
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Post by whakka on Jun 3, 2020 10:09:52 GMT
Weather is shit cant believe boris and Cummins have allowed it to rain.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 3, 2020 10:10:04 GMT
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Jun 3, 2020 10:11:59 GMT
God's amateur quack mathematics 8000 new infections per day (source ONS) 1% death rate 6 weeks from infection to dead So of those infected today 80 will still be dying at the end of July Now here is the massive HOWEVER. You have to add to that anyone already infected today who goes on for more than 6 weeks. Not sure what this number will be but it seems likely we will still be seeing 100+ deaths per day going in to August. I suppose although unwelcome 100 deaths per day might be considered manageable Provided it's not you of course!! Is this current figure of 8,000 daily infections from the ONS Is correct, what kind of numbers were catching the virus back in February, March and April prior to the reported peak of cases? The 8,000 infections are community based, it’s derived from the weekly swabbing surveillance they established in May. Around 0.24% of an 18,000 person sample tested positive over a two week period and they’ve just extrapolated the cases out. Not sure how many cases in care and hospital settings goes on top of that. It’s been at that level for 3 weeks so has been very stable but you’d expect that given everything still largely been in place. Without that level of surveillance in place before this study, they’ll probably have to do some kind of Bayesian modelling (which uses historic and current data to project backwards rather than predict) to estimate what our infections were at the peak. That will also probably have to take the antibody data on historic infections (~7% in randomised population sample) in account too.
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Post by Gob Bluth on Jun 3, 2020 10:13:39 GMT
Everyone knows it was their aim until the imperial college modelled 500k deaths pursuing that strategy. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar. And it would have been a better approach, isolate the most vulnerable and carry on. Even with dodgy exaggerated official figures, there has been around 400 victims under 45, 99 percent with other health conditions. And the 500k figure from a computer game is also total bullshit. I could well embarrass myself in-front of you all with my awful maths but is it not within the bounds of possibility? If we assume 20% of people have had it as reported in London and 40k have died then the number of deaths if everyone were to get it would be 200k, if only 7% have had it (as I think reported elsewhere) and that resulted in 40k deaths we could expect 571k to get it? So the boundaries assuming everyone would get it would be 200k to 571k. There are variables and inaccuracies from either side but a rough working shows it plausible even if it’s on the high side.
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Post by sheikhmomo on Jun 3, 2020 10:17:12 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics. As for BAME receiving more fines for breaking lockdown rules, well isn't is statistically proven that young black men are more likely to be stopped by police on the street than whites? I'm not really sure that proves anything. I think that if you put it another way, that if you are from the BAME community in London you are 50% more likely to get arrested using Coronavirus laws than white people suggest that the usual prejudices are alive and well in the Met and officers are 'enjoying' their new powers to enforce these prejudices. I struggle to see any other explanation, dave.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Jun 3, 2020 10:28:53 GMT
As for BAME receiving more fines for breaking lockdown rules, well isn't is statistically proven that young black men are more likely to be stopped by police on the street than whites? I'm not really sure that proves anything. I think that if you put it another way, that if you are from the BAME community in London you are 50% more likely to get arrested using Coronavirus laws than white people suggest that the usual prejudices are alive and well in the Met and officers are 'enjoying' their new powers to enforce these prejudices. I struggle to see any other explanation, dave. Anyone who doesn't see that these prejudices are absolutely rife in this country are blind. I don't think Dave is doubting this and am sure he's saying that their higher arrest/fine rates are more indicative of the things we have referenced than it is of any ambivalence towards the threat of coronavirus that these minorities may allegedly have. I heard a work colleague say something about the Asian population in our area contributing to high infection rates. I was disgusted by his comment and told him so. He apologised but was completely ignorant as to why I'd found his comment so offensive.
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Post by thebet365 on Jun 3, 2020 10:29:46 GMT
I have no idea why, but I can't see half the links posted on The Oatie. Is it because I use a PC and most use a phone? I'm baffled. BTW, where Boris gone to again? Has the lying bastard gone back into his fridge or is he taking time off to shag his new wench? OS. The main problem is the Twitter embeds, if you've got low internet quality or an old PC it causes the embed not to work if it hasn't loaded within a few seconds. I used to have trouble with them in work due to shite Internet speed but we recently changed & moved the router and now they load fine.
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Post by ColonelMustard on Jun 3, 2020 10:32:26 GMT
Is this current figure of 8,000 daily infections from the ONS Is correct, what kind of numbers were catching the virus back in February, March and April prior to the reported peak of cases? Dunno but it must have been tearing through London and heading North like wild fire while we were still doing elbow hand shakes and singing the National Anthem while we washed our hands! 4 weeks too late locking down? I think so but I'm no expert. It was mate. I live in London and was saying exactly this at the time on this thread. I know so many people who had it in Feb and March, including myself. Even with information from Italy on the news and hearsay around me its would have been easy to call the lockdown in London 3 weeks before. I posted on here that I had harangued the vulnerable people in my life to lock down while we were in the early happy birthday period. At the time people forget Boris was actually saying that locking down too early would be a mistake. It was policy to wait until it spread.
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Post by Davef on Jun 3, 2020 10:36:07 GMT
I have no idea why, but I can't see half the links posted on The Oatie. Is it because I use a PC and most use a phone? I'm baffled. BTW, where Boris gone to again? Has the lying bastard gone back into his fridge or is he taking time off to shag his new wench? OS. The main problem is the Twitter embeds, if you've got low internet quality or an old PC it causes the embed not to work if it hasn't loaded within a few seconds. I used to have trouble with them in work due to shite Internet speed but we recently changed & moved the router and now they load fine. Ive had a few issues with Twitter embeds loading on my iPhone. It seems to be fine if I restart the phone.
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Post by thebet365 on Jun 3, 2020 10:40:51 GMT
The main problem is the Twitter embeds, if you've got low internet quality or an old PC it causes the embed not to work if it hasn't loaded within a few seconds. I used to have trouble with them in work due to shite Internet speed but we recently changed & moved the router and now they load fine. Ive had a few issues with Twitter embeds loading on my iPhone. It seems to be fine if I restart the phone. Only Issue I'm having now is the vids in the embed, some play some don't but if I click the link through to twitter I can watch them on there so no biggy.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2020 10:43:03 GMT
I think that if you put it another way, that if you are from the BAME community in London you are 50% more likely to get arrested using Coronavirus laws than white people suggest that the usual prejudices are alive and well in the Met and officers are 'enjoying' their new powers to enforce these prejudices. I struggle to see any other explanation, dave. Anyone who doesn't see that these prejudices are absolutely rife in this country are blind. I don't think Dave is doubting this and am sure he's saying that their higher arrest/fine rates are more indicative of the things we have referenced than it is of any ambivalence towards the threat of coronavirus that these minorities may allegedly have. I heard a work colleague say something about the Asian population in our area contributing to high infection rates. I was disgusted by his comment and told him so. He apologised but was completely ignorant as to why I'd found his comment so offensive. I've heard similar comments around my way about the Jewish community. There was a few stories in the news about incidents of ultra Orthodox Jews ignoring the social distancing guidelines both here and in the USA, it just shows how people latch on to things and tar everyone with the same brush. I would argue you'll find more people contravening social distancing in your nearest Waitrose whilst trying to grab the last avocado's on the shelf than you do in some of the BAME communities.....
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jnb14
Youth Player
Posts: 269
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Post by jnb14 on Jun 3, 2020 10:43:26 GMT
As for BAME receiving more fines for breaking lockdown rules, well isn't is statistically proven that young black men are more likely to be stopped by police on the street than whites? I'm not really sure that proves anything. I think that if you put it another way, that if you are from the BAME community in London you are 50% more likely to get arrested using Coronavirus laws than white people suggest that the usual prejudices are alive and well in the Met and officers are 'enjoying' their new powers to enforce these prejudices. I struggle to see any other explanation, dave. I've been stopped by police twice, both while driving. Once for turning right when I shouldn't have. Once for driving through a "bus gate". Both times my explanations were accepted. Both times the police were either right behind me or very close. A former colleague was stopped twice for simply coming out of our place at work at night. Guess who is black, guess who is white.
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Post by chad on Jun 3, 2020 10:44:04 GMT
I have no idea why, but I can't see half the links posted on The Oatie. Is it because I use a PC and most use a phone? I'm baffled. BTW, where Boris gone to again? Has the lying bastard gone back into his fridge or is he taking time off to shag his new wench? OS. Someone on the adverts thread on the EE board mentions clicking the cog symbol in the top righthand corner nest to the Quote button. Worth a try? The main problem is the Twitter embeds, if you've got low internet quality or an old PC it causes the embed not to work if it hasn't loaded within a few seconds. I used to have trouble with them in work due to shite Internet speed but we recently changed & moved the router and now they load fine. Ive had a few issues with Twitter embeds loading on my iPhone. It seems to be fine if I restart the phone. I don’t think there’s anything left on twitter that Huddy hasn’t already downloaded 😊
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Jun 3, 2020 10:49:11 GMT
And it would have been a better approach, isolate the most vulnerable and carry on. Even with dodgy exaggerated official figures, there has been around 400 victims under 45, 99 percent with other health conditions. And the 500k figure from a computer game is also total bullshit. I could well embarrass myself in-front of you all with my awful maths but is it not within the bounds of possibility? If we assume 20% of people have had it as reported in London and 40k have died then the number of deaths if everyone were to get it would be 200k, if only 7% have had it (as I think reported elsewhere) and that resulted in 40k deaths we could expect 571k to get it? So the boundaries assuming everyone would get it would be 200k to 571k. There are variables and inaccuracies from either side but a rough working shows it plausible even if it’s on the high side. The issue with this is that it’s incredibly unlikely if not impossible that 100% of a population would be exposed to a virus. Herd immunity kicks in a some threshold (mooted at 60-80%) where transmission would naturally slow. It also slows down a bit before this threshold too but still grows as an epidemic. So whilst it works as a mathematical projection it is limited by the reality of what happens. But the 500k figure commonly referred to was in a “do nothing” scenario, it was never a realistic figure to refer to because there is no way any government will “do nothing”. The true comparison to be made is with the projected 250k deaths with a mitigation strategy, I.E something resembling a more Swedish approach. The paper rightly points out that mitigation will never fully protect vulnerable populations (but neither has lockdown in our case). The only currently effective way to do that is with aggressive tracking, testing and isolation of cases as seen in Asia. The question is, would any increases to capacity in the NHS (the paper predates Nightingale hospitals remember) have been able to cope with what likely would have been a larger, longer period of high transmission. I know a group in Uppsala co-opted Ferguson’s model for Sweden and it was way off but the model was designed for UK parameters. It’s difficult to lift one model for one country and drop it on another. As we’ve seen there is a real heterogeneity in how effective different measures are for different countries based on a variety of factors like culture, working habits, transport systems, general hygiene, health of populace. That’s before you even begin to factor in behavioural characteristics, how feasible is it that just telling the elderly to isolate whilst everything else carries on that it will be adhered to? We saw in the weeks before lockdown and mandatory closure older and at risk people refusing to stay away. It sounds like the sensible thing to do as a policy but if it’s not workable because people aren’t taking it seriously then it’s redundant. We’ll likely only know the answer to most of these questions when the dust settles.
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Post by crapslinger on Jun 3, 2020 10:54:41 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics. You can't go around stating the blatantly obvious you are forgetting these people are not white you bigoted racist .
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Post by davejohnno1 on Jun 3, 2020 11:06:54 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics. You can't go around stating the blatantly obvious you are forgetting these people are not white you bigoted racist . Can I ask then...Do you believe that the Black and Ethnic Minority communities are hardest hit by Coronavirus because they are the ones most likely to have broken lockdown and social distancing guidelines, as evidenced by the fact that they have proportionally received the highest number of fines for breaking lockdown rules?
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Post by yeokel on Jun 3, 2020 11:17:05 GMT
So, Boris held a party or something for his wench a few days before everyone was urged to stop doing such things. And your point is? (Except that you don't seem to be able to make comments of your own) And, WTF is a “baby shower”?
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Post by spitthedog on Jun 3, 2020 11:19:25 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics. You can't go around stating the blatantly obvious you are forgetting these people are not white you bigoted racist . Glad to hear that there is the prospect of some intelligent enquiry going on here to establish possible REASONS (its always good to consider that there may be more than 1!!!) that may contribute towards higher rates of infection amongst BAME communiities. I'm trying to learn more about this myself having relatives are who understandably concerned about their health prospects. Other contributory factors could be 1/ Inadequate housingMany experts suspect that poverty plays a significant role in the trend – in the UK, it's an uncomfortable truth that people from BAME backgrounds are more likely to be of low socioeconomic status. NHS GP Dr Gero Baiarda explains how living in poverty – specifically living in inadequate housing in densely populated, urban areas – creates conditions where the virus can be contracted more easily. 'Fifteen percent of Black African and 30% of Bangladeshi families live in overcrowded housing, compared to only 2% of the White British population according to government figures. Effective isolation is therefore extremely difficult.' 2/ Working in high-risk jobsRelatedly, people from BAME backgrounds are more likely to be working in the jobs that are currently keeping society going. Over 18% of the doctors, nurses, porters, cleaners, transport and catering staff who sustain the NHS in this time of crisis are from black and Asian backgrounds. Working day-to-day with critically ill patients, and in many cases with reportedly inadequate protective equipment, makes these workers more likely to be exposed to the virus. NHS GP Dr Adwoa Danso explains that not only are BAME individuals disproportionately represented among NHS staff, but they’re also more likely to work lower down the ranks. This only increases the risks they face: 'BAME individuals within the NHS are less likely to be promoted compared with their white counterparts [per a 2015 NHS equality analysis.] BAME communities are also largely responsible for keeping things moving on our roads and rails. In London specifically, over 25% of transport workers currently operating our buses and tubes are from BAME backgrounds. Dr Baiarda explains: 'They have done an invaluable job in keeping the capital moving during the pandemic, but in so doing, have been potentially exposed daily to COVID-19 carried by infected but asymptomatic commuters.' People in this demographic are also over-represented in things like shop and care work. These are roles that, of course, cannot be done from home, requiring people to be out and about in society and dealing with potential exposure to the virus. 3/ Vitamin D deficiencyA newer theory that has emerged in recent weeks surrounds vitamin D, also known as the 'sunshine vitamin'. Generated from sunlight exposure, vitamin D is crucial to the immune system, as well as healthy muscles, bones and teeth. BAME communities are prone to vitamin D deficiency, because higher levels of melanin in the skin lead to lower levels of vitamin D absorption. This is only exacerbated in colder countries like the UK, which see less sunlight. He believes that there may be a connection between lower levels of the vitamin in BAME communities and higher levels of COVID-19 cases. Good opportunity to learn more if we are going to comment on the subject methinks! Cue: a photo of a black person with a big house/and group of black people standing near each other no doubt!!
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