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Post by The Drunken Communist on Jun 2, 2020 20:44:18 GMT
Just looking at the graphs of our deaths per day, especially looking at the 'peak death days' (IE; A Tuesday after a normal weekend or a Wednesday after a Bank Holiday weekend). The last half-a-dozen or so 'peaks' are... (And these are slightly rounded off)
1,200 1,000 900 700 625 550 450 325
IF we carry on like this (And I realise that's still very much a big 'IF') but this thing could be all but gone by July.
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Post by Olgrligm on Jun 2, 2020 20:46:30 GMT
Who, sort of interestingly, have just announced that they are returning their furlough money to the government because it turns out that they didn't need it after all. Obviously Neil has his own political opinions - as do all journalists - but I think that, on the whole, he doesn't let them get in the way of his job when he's on the BBC. I find him to be a good host and a pretty good interviewer. I've criticised journalists quite a bit on this thread, but I think we generally have higher standards amongst our political journalists than the US. Could you imagine a Fox News host going on a prime time slot and calling out Donald Trump for chickening out of an interview? Could you imagine an American politician of either party actually chickening out of an interview with their pet broadcaster, be it Fox or NBC or whoever? I can still recall that American bloke (Ben Shapiro) going on Neil's show and having a hissy fit because he was asked challenging questions, which meant that Neil must have been a left wing extremist. It was quite funny. I still want to know about the Fairytales of Durham his mag published though from Cummings' wife. Suspiciously quiet about all of that. And this picture will never not be weird. Unless I've forgotten some major detail of the story, I don't think that they would have known about it at the time of publication? If she was a regular columnist for them, it wouldn't be untoward of them to publish her account of her and her husband having covid when nobody knew they were gallivanting across the country. I've no idea if it would be normal for a publication to retract an opinion piece in those circumstances.
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Post by essexstokey on Jun 2, 2020 20:48:10 GMT
Absolutely scathing letter today Mick, from Sir David Norgrove, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority, to Matt Hancock ... I've read it Paul. Coming from such a source, and even though it's written in diplomatic language, it's scathing. Basically what he's saying is exactly what I have written... Hancock et al are a manipulative bunch of disingenous bastards who have taken the public for complete fools. What makes it worse is that even a ten year old can see through their lies. They just don't care. Much like Trump in the US, they know they have a core (ever diminishing by the day) of supporters who will swallow their lies and deceit without question and defend their actions by deflecting blame on that mad lot behind Corbyn and his pigs ear of an election manifesto. M. as i said during the election campaign there are lies dam lies and the tories im glad alot more people are finally seeing this !! A BIT TO LATE THOUGH !!
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 2, 2020 20:50:58 GMT
I still want to know about the Fairytales of Durham his mag published though from Cummings' wife. Suspiciously quiet about all of that. And this picture will never not be weird. Unless I've forgotten some major detail of the story, I don't think that they would have known about it at the time of publication? If she was a regular columnist for them, it wouldn't be untoward of them to publish her account of her and her husband having covid when nobody knew they were gallivanting across the country. I've no idea if it would be normal for a publication to retract an opinion piece in those circumstances. Rumours were flying around for a while and even then you'd think they'd make a comment rebuking her for writing fiction?
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jun 2, 2020 20:51:02 GMT
I still want to know about the Fairytales of Durham his mag published though from Cummings' wife. Suspiciously quiet about all of that. And this picture will never not be weird. Unless I've forgotten some major detail of the story, I don't think that they would have known about it at the time of publication? If she was a regular columnist for them, it wouldn't be untoward of them to publish her account of her and her husband having covid when nobody knew they were gallivanting across the country. I've no idea if it would be normal for a publication to retract an opinion piece in those circumstances. www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/28/quarantine-article-by-dominic-cummings-wife-reported-to-regulator
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jun 2, 2020 20:59:10 GMT
Unless I've forgotten some major detail of the story, I don't think that they would have known about it at the time of publication? If she was a regular columnist for them, it wouldn't be untoward of them to publish her account of her and her husband having covid when nobody knew they were gallivanting across the country. I've no idea if it would be normal for a publication to retract an opinion piece in those circumstances. Rumours were flying around for a while and even then you'd think they'd make a comment rebuking her for writing fiction? I kind of did wonder if once they realised that the Durham story was going to come out, did they sit down and discuss the fact that one of them was going to have to be professionally ruined? BOTH their stories couldn't be right. It's a bit like when a spouse claims they were driving the car (when they weren't) when the car is clocked doing 54 mph in a 30 mph limit. Her reputation as a journalist (and indeed as an editor) is now in tatters. It was always going to be her or Cummings that went down.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 2, 2020 21:02:07 GMT
Rumours were flying around for a while and even then you'd think they'd make a comment rebuking her for writing fiction? I kind of did wonder if once they realised that the Durham story was going to come out, did they sit down and discuss the fact that one of them was about to be professionally ruined? BOTH their stories couldn't be right. It's a bit like when a spouse claims they were driving the car (when they weren't) when the car is clocked doing 54 mph in a 30 mph limit. Her reputation as a journalist (and indeed as an editor) is now in tatters. Indeed, you'd hope so! And Neil and Fraser Nelson could easily throw her under the bus but haven't which makes me suspicious that they may have known something. Alistiar Campbell tweets them both at least twice a day
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Post by andystokey on Jun 2, 2020 21:02:49 GMT
Just looking at the graphs of our deaths per day, especially looking at the 'peak death days' (IE; A Tuesday after a normal weekend or a Wednesday after a Bank Holiday weekend). The last half-a-dozen or so 'peaks' are... (And these are slightly rounded off) 1,200 1,000 900 700 625 550 450 325 IF we carry on like this (And I realise that's still very much a big 'IF') but this thing could be all but gone by July. That would be an approximate straight line fit assuming no other variables changed. Now have we done anything to change the experiment since?.. hmmm
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 2, 2020 21:19:33 GMT
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Post by henry on Jun 2, 2020 21:23:32 GMT
Just looking at the graphs of our deaths per day, especially looking at the 'peak death days' (IE; A Tuesday after a normal weekend or a Wednesday after a Bank Holiday weekend). The last half-a-dozen or so 'peaks' are... (And these are slightly rounded off) 1,200 1,000 900 700 625 550 450 325 IF we carry on like this (And I realise that's still very much a big 'IF') but this thing could be all but gone by July. That would be an approximate straight line fit assuming no other variables changed. Now have we done anything to change the experiment since?.. hmmm In 2/3 weeks we will know for definite if the government were correct in easing lockdown.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2020 21:24:55 GMT
Oh fuck.....
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jun 2, 2020 21:30:56 GMT
Control? He can't even keep control of the zip on his own trousers.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 2, 2020 21:57:28 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 2, 2020 22:03:15 GMT
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Post by starkiller on Jun 2, 2020 22:03:32 GMT
If herd immunity wasn’t our aim in the first part I’d love an explanation why we were constantly being told we needed to lock down at the right time. That line was said time and again. It was the acceptable words of herd immunity. The right time was right at the beginning not after our track and trace system couldn’t handle it. Everyone knows it was their aim until the imperial college modelled 500k deaths pursuing that strategy. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar. And it would have been a better approach, isolate the most vulnerable and carry on. Even with dodgy exaggerated official figures, there has been around 400 victims under 45, 99 percent with other health conditions. And the 500k figure from a computer game is also total bullshit.
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Post by cobhamstokey on Jun 2, 2020 22:36:25 GMT
I would have said the same thing. I don’t favour either party. It just grinds with me that the guy is held up as some sort of hero when he’s sold British soldiers up the river and been involved in phone tapping. So you're saying that anything Boris Johnson says, should be ignored because he was sacked for making stuff up? Nope and I didn’t say that about Morgan either if you read my original post. I just question the way he’s being put on a pedestal. Too be honest with you I haven’t got much time for any of the politicians or media they’re all a bunch of charlatans. I think Dave Johnos got the right idea by dipping in and out of here and that’s what I’ll be doing in future. I’ll be pleased when we get back to arguing about footy
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Post by smallthorner on Jun 2, 2020 22:49:25 GMT
So you're saying that anything Boris Johnson says, should be ignored because he was sacked for making stuff up? Nope and I didn’t say that about Morgan either if you read my original post. I just question the way he’s being put on a pedestal. Too be honest with you I haven’t got much time for any of the politicians or media they’re all a bunch of charlatans. I think Dave Johnos got the right idea by dipping in and out of here and that’s what I’ll be doing in future. I’ll be pleased when we get back to arguing about footy I think BoJo has been "dipping in and out" of this fiasco hasn't he?😎
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Post by andystokey on Jun 2, 2020 23:06:49 GMT
That would be an approximate straight line fit assuming no other variables changed. Now have we done anything to change the experiment since?.. hmmm In 2/3 weeks we will know for definite if the government were correct in easing lockdown. Unfortunately it's not that straightforward given the incubation delay and subtlety in R0. I think we might get some preliminary indication. Add to that we are hitting the months where cumulative death in UK is at its lowest, it's nearly half what it is in winter. Crunch some numbers in here and you can see you won't see the cases rising or falling that quickly. When they do move without intervention they go big time. gabgoh.github.io/COVID/
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Post by Gary Hackett on Jun 2, 2020 23:53:26 GMT
Just looking at the graphs of our deaths per day, especially looking at the 'peak death days' (IE; A Tuesday after a normal weekend or a Wednesday after a Bank Holiday weekend). The last half-a-dozen or so 'peaks' are... (And these are slightly rounded off) 1,200 1,000 900 700 625 550 450 325 IF we carry on like this (And I realise that's still very much a big 'IF') but this thing could be all but gone by July. Yeah we've been dropping around 20% each week. The figures I pay most interest in are the figures on a Thursday / Friday which are the most accurate before the lag at weekend and the subsequent catch up early in the week.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 3, 2020 0:29:57 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 3, 2020 1:26:54 GMT
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Post by Olgrligm on Jun 3, 2020 7:33:17 GMT
Unless I've forgotten some major detail of the story, I don't think that they would have known about it at the time of publication? If she was a regular columnist for them, it wouldn't be untoward of them to publish her account of her and her husband having covid when nobody knew they were gallivanting across the country. I've no idea if it would be normal for a publication to retract an opinion piece in those circumstances. Rumours were flying around for a while and even then you'd think they'd make a comment rebuking her for writing fiction? I suppose we'll see what happens at the end of the complaint process mentioned in Paul's link? I genuinely don't remember any rumours, but then I think at the time it happened it was all a bit secondary to Johnson getting Covid, which dominated the new. All of these facts about Durham might have emerged sooner if the rest of the press weren't distracted by that, maybe.
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Post by chad on Jun 3, 2020 7:36:05 GMT
Nope and I didn’t say that about Morgan either if you read my original post. I just question the way he’s being put on a pedestal. Too be honest with you I haven’t got much time for any of the politicians or media they’re all a bunch of charlatans. I think Dave Johnos got the right idea by dipping in and out of here and that’s what I’ll be doing in future. I’ll be pleased when we get back to arguing about footy I think BoJo has been "dipping in and out" of this fiasco hasn't he?😎 I think Starmers dipped out all together
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2020 7:43:20 GMT
I think BoJo has been "dipping in and out" of this fiasco hasn't he?😎 I think Starmers dipped out all together Starmer is letting the Tories do his work for him. He'll come back into the limelight when the time is right for him and his party. Whether that is deemed the right or even ethical thing to do right now is another argument altogether. The biggest and most important issue is how the current government are handling the crisis and not trying to deflect anything onto people in a red tie.
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Post by leicspotter on Jun 3, 2020 8:00:20 GMT
In 2/3 weeks we will know for definite if the government were correct in easing lockdown. Unfortunately it's not that straightforward given the incubation delay and subtlety in R0. I think we might get some preliminary indication. Add to that we are hitting the months where cumulative death in UK is at its lowest, it's nearly half what it is in winter. Crunch some numbers in here and you can see you won't see the cases rising or falling that quickly. When they do move without intervention they go big time. gabgoh.github.io/COVID/We may also see the effect of the lack of Social Distancing over the weekend and at anti USA protests around the country...
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Post by wagsastokie on Jun 3, 2020 8:12:36 GMT
I think BoJo has been "dipping in and out" of this fiasco hasn't he?😎 I think Starmers dipped out all together He's ordered a gallon of TCP for when the splinters are removed
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Post by xchpotter on Jun 3, 2020 8:22:06 GMT
Unfortunately it's not that straightforward given the incubation delay and subtlety in R0. I think we might get some preliminary indication. Add to that we are hitting the months where cumulative death in UK is at its lowest, it's nearly half what it is in winter. Crunch some numbers in here and you can see you won't see the cases rising or falling that quickly. When they do move without intervention they go big time. gabgoh.github.io/COVID/We may also see the effect of the lack of Social Distancing over the weekend and at anti USA protests around the country... There was a demonstration outside the town hall where I live. Hundreds present and no social distancing at all. What the hell the events in America have to do with people here to the extent they override safety for the rest of us is beyond me. I bet you won't find many politicians brave enough to challenge their actions though.
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Post by wagsastokie on Jun 3, 2020 8:26:31 GMT
I think Starmers dipped out all together Starmer is letting the Tories do his work for him. He'll come back into the limelight when the time is right for him and his party. Whether that is deemed the right or even ethical thing to do right now is another argument altogether. The biggest and most important issue is how the current government are handling the crisis and not trying to deflect anything onto people in a red tie. Rubbish the job of the opposition is to oppose if they feel the government is doing wrong It is there job to point out failures in there eyes and suggest solutions There job is not there to sit in silence like cowards just in case by the off chance the government have got it right If they think schools should not open come out and say it If they think the lockdown should be more strict then come out and say it The current Labour front bench unprincipled silent cowards Bring back Corbyn at least he would of said what he would do
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Post by sheikhmomo on Jun 3, 2020 9:06:58 GMT
If Starmer doesn't get seriously up this feckless moron's grill at Noon it will be a gross dereliction of duty. Johnson is simply not fit for office and his lazy, smug sense of self entitlement has caused thousands of extra deaths and it needs pointing out to him and the braying donkey's sat behind him in no uncertain terms. Fuck forensics.
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Post by lawrieleslie on Jun 3, 2020 9:11:42 GMT
Yesterday it was confirmed what we have all known that Black and Minority Ethnic population have been hit proportionally the hardest. This morning it’s being reported that BME have proportionally the highest number of fines for breaking lock down rules. Am I being stupid here but there must be some correlation between the 2 sets of statistics. I’m not suggesting that it’s the only reason for high infection rates amongst BME but it must contribute to the overall statistics.
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