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Post by Gods on May 14, 2020 14:43:13 GMT
Office for National Statistics ONS - 148,000 infected with coronavirus in the last fortnight so just over 10,000 new cases per day. The Guardian was estimating double that last weekend so maybe not as bad as thought 2nd mini-peak looks nailed on on this basis you would imagine. Still plenty of the virus flying around. Still only an estimate though. No idea what it means tbh 95% confidence 94,000 to 220,000 in the last fortnight it says in the small print!
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2020 14:43:50 GMT
Office for National Statistics ONS - 148,000 infected with coronavirus in the last fortnight so just over 10,000 new cases per day. The Guardian said experts were estimating double that last weekend so overall maybe not as bad as some sages thought. 2nd mini-peak looks nailed on on this basis though you would imagine. Still plenty of the virus flying around. What?? We're announcing around 4,000 per day, arent we? Where has 10,000 come from?
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Post by Gods on May 14, 2020 14:46:07 GMT
Office for National Statistics ONS - 148,000 infected with coronavirus in the last fortnight so just over 10,000 new cases per day. The Guardian said experts were estimating double that last weekend so overall maybe not as bad as some sages thought. 2nd mini-peak looks nailed on on this basis though you would imagine. Still plenty of the virus flying around. What?? We're announcing around 4,000 per day, arent we? Where has 10,000 come from? 3000 to 4000 per day is positive tests. Most sufferers get nowhere near a medic never mind a test, many don't notice they have it at all. This is an estimate of the real number from ONS.
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Post by Northy on May 14, 2020 14:56:32 GMT
We really did go too far protecting the NHS hospitals it seems. Emptied bed loads of Covid infected patients in to our Care Homes to free up hospital beds while all the additional hospital capacity we hurriedly put together at Excel, NEC etc. went unused. It was well intentioned I'm sure but we're paying a terrible price. It would help if ministers and medics admitted they messed up rather than continuing to hawk around this 'Care Homes were an equal priority to the NHS from Day 1' baloney. and this is the problem at the moment, somebody is always looking to blame and pointing the finger, where we need to understand this is unprecedented, decisions are being made based on models and advice from experts, these are made in the best intention at the time, if that isn't the correct decision, it wouldn't have been done malicously, then we need to make sure that it isn't done if god for forbid we have another thing like this, some people seem very shouty with hindsight. they saw what was happening Italy, people lying in corridors, were told by Italian doctors what was happening over 70's not being given Oxygen and saving it for younger people and not being resuscitated, they acted, designers and workers pulled out all the stops to get it ready, processes put in place to ensure the hospitals could be as best as could be to receive what was going to come, and people now telling them 'they messed up'
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 14, 2020 14:58:36 GMT
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 14, 2020 15:00:43 GMT
Still only an estimate though. No idea what it means tbh 95% confidence 94,000 to 220,000 in the last fortnight it says in the small print! In percentage terms it’s not that much of a difference tbh. Even at the high end that’s still a very low prevalence for an infection some had hoped many more have had with minimal or no symptoms. This is only round 1, and there many limitations on using swab tests for live virus in tracking overall and historic spread, we really need those antibody numbers out sharpish and the commercial test rolled out.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 14, 2020 15:18:55 GMT
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Post by chad on May 14, 2020 15:21:34 GMT
95% confidence 94,000 to 220,000 in the last fortnight it says in the small print! In percentage terms it’s not that much of a difference tbh. Even at the high end that’s still a very low prevalence for an infection some had hoped many more have had with minimal or no symptoms. This is only round 1, and there many limitations on using swab tests for live virus in tracking overall and historic spread, we really need those antibody numbers out sharpish and the commercial test rolled out. According to the news prorataing this across the population means 1 person in 400 Is likely carrying the infection The idea is to conduct this survey every week (?) to see how infection rates are going
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Post by numpty40 on May 14, 2020 15:22:20 GMT
What are your thoughts on that?
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Post by crapslinger on May 14, 2020 15:22:37 GMT
The only government that is accountable for this World wide pandemic is the lying deceitful, oppressive communist government of the PRC the rest is waffle and piss to suit mainly the left wing losers agendas, ironically it's a left wing Pariah state that is at the heart of this shitstorm you couldn't make it up. So...how is that useful or helpful in anyway to people in the UK at the moment??? So if someone comes to burn down your house, you wouldn't try to put the fire out, rather you would be content to sit their watching it burn while pointing your finger in the direction of the person you thought responsible. If someone came to burn my house down they would get both barrels from a shotgun, no need to put any fire out, we know who is responsible for this plague why do you think the Chinese authorities rejecting an independent investigation into it's origins and the actions taken by the host country to control the spread of it ?
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Post by citynickscfc on May 14, 2020 15:23:52 GMT
We really did go too far protecting the NHS hospitals it seems. Emptied bed loads of Covid infected patients in to our Care Homes to free up hospital beds while all the additional hospital capacity we hurriedly put together at Excel, NEC etc. went unused. It was well intentioned I'm sure but we're paying a terrible price. It would help if ministers and medics admitted they messed up rather than continuing to hawk around this 'Care Homes were an equal priority to the NHS from Day 1' baloney. and this is the problem at the moment, somebody is always looking to blame and pointing the finger, where we need to understand this is unprecedented, decisions are being made based on models and advice from experts, these are made in the best intention at the time, if that isn't the correct decision, it wouldn't have been done malicously, then we need to make sure that it isn't done if god for forbid we have another thing like this, some people seem very shouty with hindsight. they saw what was happening Italy, people lying in corridors, were told by Italian doctors what was happening over 70's not being given Oxygen and saving it for younger people and not being resuscitated, they acted, designers and workers pulled out all the stops to get it ready, processes put in place to ensure the hospitals could be as best as could be to receive what was going to come, and people now telling them 'they messed up' I'm sorry. They lied, deceived, and knowingly construed whatever financially based exertions into the British public. It's clear the world economy needs an adjustable/sustainable system and change that suits it's population and not the minority. Instead, we have people pretending that government's lieing and deceiving the people they serve is ok, normal, and 'in the public's interest'. It's bewildering, small minded, and if I'm honest it's typical of the society we have been conditioned to accept. The British government answer to the pressures of the economy, not of the people. Remember that next time you vote in this broken, capitulated system with your 'voice'. Remember children's agency as an example, pretending you have made a difference meanwhile you okay with your consumables. Yes, the British government should be held accountable, I too would welcome a revolution of sorts should the people choose to acknowledge the complete lack of care, responsibility and reliability the supposed'democratic'system in the UK represents. Without question, they must certainly should be held accountable. Oh by the way, enjoy the government's distraction techniques i.e. making other'news' more important- see above the smear campaign.
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Post by crapslinger on May 14, 2020 15:26:25 GMT
What are your thoughts on that? Him and Chairman Mo are more concerned how illegal immigrants are going to survive in our country without any income from working here illegally , charity begins at home for our own not someone here illegally, time to bring in id cards
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 14, 2020 15:27:36 GMT
We really did go too far protecting the NHS hospitals it seems. Emptied bed loads of Covid infected patients in to our Care Homes to free up hospital beds while all the additional hospital capacity we hurriedly put together at Excel, NEC etc. went unused. It was well intentioned I'm sure but we're paying a terrible price. It would help if ministers and medics admitted they messed up rather than continuing to hawk around this 'Care Homes were an equal priority to the NHS from Day 1' baloney. and this is the problem at the moment, somebody is always looking to blame and pointing the finger, where we need to understand this is unprecedented, decisions are being made based on models and advice from experts, these are made in the best intention at the time, if that isn't the correct decision, it wouldn't have been done malicously, then we need to make sure that it isn't done if god for forbid we have another thing like this, some people seem very shouty with hindsight. they saw what was happening Italy, people lying in corridors, were told by Italian doctors what was happening over 70's not being given Oxygen and saving it for younger people and not being resuscitated, they acted, designers and workers pulled out all the stops to get it ready, processes put in place to ensure the hospitals could be as best as could be to receive what was going to come, and people now telling them 'they messed up' Hindsight bullshit. People were expecting triage here. But call me naive if you want, I was also expecting everyone to be welcome and then decisions to be made not a blanket ban. That seems absolutely fucking ridiculous nigh shameful.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 14, 2020 15:28:18 GMT
In percentage terms it’s not that much of a difference tbh. Even at the high end that’s still a very low prevalence for an infection some had hoped many more have had with minimal or no symptoms. This is only round 1, and there many limitations on using swab tests for live virus in tracking overall and historic spread, we really need those antibody numbers out sharpish and the commercial test rolled out. According to the news prorataing this across the population means 1 person in 400 Is likely carrying the infection The idea is to conduct this survey every week (?) to see how infection rates are going Yeah I was just referring to the 95% confidence intervals they give, which are the extents to which they are 95% certain the true value could lie in. They don’t really budge it up in terms of population percentages really even if when they range from 99k-220k (extrapolated to total population). This is a good study and is definitely useful, it just is very much an active surveillance study which is good for R, but the other half of R is determined by population still at risk of infection. We still need the retrograde numbers to determine historic spread from antibody testing which this tells us nothing about. But it’s not designed to in fairness.
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Post by citynickscfc on May 14, 2020 15:28:55 GMT
What are your thoughts on that? Him and Chairman Mo are more concerned how illegal immigrants are going to survive in our country without any income from working here illegally , charity begins at home for our own not someone here illegally, time to bring in id cards Ever person has a right to live with a relative standard of living to others, don't they. There are reasons for these people to be classed as 'illegal'. Those reasons should be sympathised with rather than vilification of the person. I'd rather focus be on the problem, not the consequence.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 14, 2020 15:30:21 GMT
One for ESOF. This bloke and his mates seems to think up to 29% of the population have had it according to their paper.
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Post by Gary Hackett on May 14, 2020 15:33:19 GMT
Follow up to yesterday’s post about the Rhesus Monkey model. This is a paper detailing the efficacy of a single dose of the ChAdOx1 vaccine conferring protection to monkeys within that model despite constant exposure. Lower viral load found in the vaccinated monkeys, no onset of pneumonia and crucially no adverse effects. [mention]bayernoatcake [/mention] This is what we were discussing yesterday, model out first and then the small (but still important) vaccine study. Replicate this data in the Phase 1 trial underway, and we’ve got a start at least! It's good to see its not all doom and gloom. Sarah Gilbert and the team from Oxford seem to be quite comfortably ahead in the race to find a vaccine. We should take the positives when they happen.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 14, 2020 15:36:44 GMT
Follow up to yesterday’s post about the Rhesus Monkey model. This is a paper detailing the efficacy of a single dose of the ChAdOx1 vaccine conferring protection to monkeys within that model despite constant exposure. Lower viral load found in the vaccinated monkeys, no onset of pneumonia and crucially no adverse effects. [mention]bayernoatcake [/mention] This is what we were discussing yesterday, model out first and then the small (but still important) vaccine study. Replicate this data in the Phase 1 trial underway, and we’ve got a start at least! It's good to see its not all doom and gloom. Sarah Gilbert and the team from Oxford seem to be quite comfortably ahead in the race to find a vaccine. Definitely, and kudos to them. I posted a few days ago it’s a testament to the value of keeping projects with no immediate observable benefit going. You never know when things are going to become relevant. They’ve been quietly working on stopping virus effecting a small area in the middle east yet the tools they’ve designed have potential implications on a truly global and historic level. Long way to go, but the best we have at the moment.
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Post by citynickscfc on May 14, 2020 15:40:37 GMT
Follow up to yesterday’s post about the Rhesus Monkey model. This is a paper detailing the efficacy of a single dose of the ChAdOx1 vaccine conferring protection to monkeys within that model despite constant exposure. Lower viral load found in the vaccinated monkeys, no onset of pneumonia and crucially no adverse effects. [mention]bayernoatcake [/mention] This is what we were discussing yesterday, model out first and then the small (but still important) vaccine study. Replicate this data in the Phase 1 trial underway, and we’ve got a start at least! It's good to see its not all doom and gloom. Sarah Gilbert and the team from Oxford seem to be quite comfortably ahead in the race to find a vaccine. We should take the positives when they happen. It's positive but then what? Sell it to the highest bidder? It's important as here in Finland they are also 'ahead' as you put it, be seems every country is doing the space race crap isn't it? Spinning their own version of the vaccine acquired, however concern here is that it will simply be sold to the highest bidder. What protection in the UK is there for preventing that ?? It's likely smaller countries will be last, and I'm guessing it will be sold out of the UK also should it be of economic interest, again not exactly positive unless the info can be openly shared... Right?
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 14, 2020 15:48:07 GMT
One for ESOF. This bloke and his mates seems to think up to 29% of the population have had it according to their paper. Not read in full, but my main issue with that is the pretty big one they bring up themselves. The reliance on the assumption that the detected infections and wider community infections are linear extrapolating based on that isn’t likely to be reflective of what’s actually going on. It could be shot up entirely when the first antibody data comes back. (I know I’m a stuck record but I’m skeptical about any more modelling etc up to this point) 😂
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 14, 2020 15:50:05 GMT
It's good to see its not all doom and gloom. Sarah Gilbert and the team from Oxford seem to be quite comfortably ahead in the race to find a vaccine. We should take the positives when they happen. It's positive but then what? Sell it to the highest bidder? It's important as here in Finland they are also 'ahead' as you put it, be seems every country is doing the space race crap isn't it? Spinning their own version of the vaccine acquired, however concern here is that it will simply be sold to the highest bidder. What protection in the UK is there for preventing that ?? It's likely smaller countries will be last, and I'm guessing it will be sold out of the UK also should it be of economic interest, again not exactly positive unless the info can be openly shared... Right? Oxford have forgone royalties on the vaccine for the length of the pandemic. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-04-30-landmark-partnership-announced-development-covid-19-vaccineAdditionally: “Under the new agreement, as well as providing UK access as early as possible if the vaccine candidate is successful, AstraZeneca will work with global partners on the international distribution of the vaccine, particularly working to make it available and accessible for low and medium income countries.”
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Post by algor on May 14, 2020 15:51:52 GMT
It's good to see its not all doom and gloom. Sarah Gilbert and the team from Oxford seem to be quite comfortably ahead in the race to find a vaccine. We should take the positives when they happen. It's positive but then what? Sell it to the highest bidder? It's important as here in Finland they are also 'ahead' as you put it, be seems every country is doing the space race crap isn't it? Spinning their own version of the vaccine acquired, however concern here is that it will simply be sold to the highest bidder. What protection in the UK is there for preventing that ?? It's likely smaller countries will be last, and I'm guessing it will be sold out of the UK also should it be of economic interest, again not exactly positive unless the info can be openly shared... Right? AstraZeneca who would be making (sorry are already making) the vaccine being worked on by the Oxford lab have confirmed that they will make the vaccine at cost (0% profit), it would be rolled out across the UK and then the world on this basis should the vaccine prove to be successful.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 14, 2020 15:52:02 GMT
What are your thoughts on that? Bit of a worry to be honest, what do you think?
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 14, 2020 15:53:09 GMT
What are your thoughts on that? Him and Chairman Mo are more concerned how illegal immigrants are going to survive in our country without any income from working here illegally , charity begins at home for our own not someone here illegally, time to bring in id cards Roasted gammon alert....sizzle sizzle
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Post by Trouserdog on May 14, 2020 15:57:26 GMT
I'm no statistician, but most studies on mortality rate peg it at around 1%.
Is it too crude a method to look at how many deaths there have been (40,000) times that by 100 and say that 4,000,000 people in the UK are likely to have had coronavirus, or in some cases, will still have it? I mean, i know it's not exactly the kind of method you'd get peer-reviewed on, but is it likely to be miles out- something around 6% of the population?
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Post by Seymour Beaver on May 14, 2020 15:58:12 GMT
We really did go too far protecting the NHS hospitals it seems. Emptied bed loads of Covid infected patients in to our Care Homes to free up hospital beds while all the additional hospital capacity we hurriedly put together at Excel, NEC etc. went unused. It was well intentioned I'm sure but we're paying a terrible price. It would help if ministers and medics admitted they messed up rather than continuing to hawk around this 'Care Homes were an equal priority to the NHS from Day 1' baloney. and this is the problem at the moment, somebody is always looking to blame and pointing the finger, where we need to understand this is unprecedented, decisions are being made based on models and advice from experts, these are made in the best intention at the time, if that isn't the correct decision, it wouldn't have been done malicously, then we need to make sure that it isn't done if god for forbid we have another thing like this, some people seem very shouty with hindsight. they saw what was happening Italy, people lying in corridors, were told by Italian doctors what was happening over 70's not being given Oxygen and saving it for younger people and not being resuscitated, they acted, designers and workers pulled out all the stops to get it ready, processes put in place to ensure the hospitals could be as best as could be to receive what was going to come, and people now telling them 'they messed up' There's apparently an unwritten rule in the medical profession which goes something like:- Everyone is allowed to make a mistake, but if you do put your hand up and tell someone that way you don't make the same mistake twice and nor does anyone else- and for that same reason never try to cover it up. Seems reasonable to me and perhaps should be applied here.
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Post by Northy on May 14, 2020 15:59:57 GMT
and this is the problem at the moment, somebody is always looking to blame and pointing the finger, where we need to understand this is unprecedented, decisions are being made based on models and advice from experts, these are made in the best intention at the time, if that isn't the correct decision, it wouldn't have been done malicously, then we need to make sure that it isn't done if god for forbid we have another thing like this, some people seem very shouty with hindsight. they saw what was happening Italy, people lying in corridors, were told by Italian doctors what was happening over 70's not being given Oxygen and saving it for younger people and not being resuscitated, they acted, designers and workers pulled out all the stops to get it ready, processes put in place to ensure the hospitals could be as best as could be to receive what was going to come, and people now telling them 'they messed up' I'm sorry. They lied, deceived, and knowingly construed whatever financially based exertions into the British public. It's clear the world economy needs an adjustable/sustainable system and change that suits it's population and not the minority. Instead, we have people pretending that government's lieing and deceiving the people they serve is ok, normal, and 'in the public's interest'. It's bewildering, small minded, and if I'm honest it's typical of the society we have been conditioned to accept. The British government answer to the pressures of the economy, not of the people. Remember that next time you vote in this broken, capitulated system with your 'voice'. Remember children's agency as an example, pretending you have made a difference meanwhile you okay with your consumables. Yes, the British government should be held accountable, I too would welcome a revolution of sorts should the people choose to acknowledge the complete lack of care, responsibility and reliability the supposed'democratic'system in the UK represents. Without question, they must certainly should be held accountable. Oh by the way, enjoy the government's distraction techniques i.e. making other'news' more important- see above the smear campaign. So let me get this straight, Gods said we've wasted money on the temporary hospitals, hospitals they were building to protect the people, using money we could ill afford, and you say it was a decision based on the economy and not to protect people ? I think you're mini rant was aimed at a higher level of discussion around the scale and type of economies etc. ? I've said on here before we should be looking at de-growth and localised production systems. There will be reviews into what has happened, mistakes will and have been made, but this hasn't been a normal event by any stretch of the imagination, lessons will be learnt.
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2020 15:59:58 GMT
What are your thoughts on that? Him and Chairman Mo are more concerned how illegal immigrants are going to survive in our country without any income from working here illegally , charity begins at home for our own not someone here illegally, time to bring in id cards Why does charity begin at home? Never really understood that phrase I'll be honest.....
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Post by sportsman on May 14, 2020 16:02:25 GMT
Him and Chairman Mo are more concerned how illegal immigrants are going to survive in our country without any income from working here illegally , charity begins at home for our own not someone here illegally, time to bring in id cards Why does charity begin at home? Never really understood that phrase I'll be honest..... I understand it and agree with it.
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Post by Northy on May 14, 2020 16:05:02 GMT
and this is the problem at the moment, somebody is always looking to blame and pointing the finger, where we need to understand this is unprecedented, decisions are being made based on models and advice from experts, these are made in the best intention at the time, if that isn't the correct decision, it wouldn't have been done malicously, then we need to make sure that it isn't done if god for forbid we have another thing like this, some people seem very shouty with hindsight. they saw what was happening Italy, people lying in corridors, were told by Italian doctors what was happening over 70's not being given Oxygen and saving it for younger people and not being resuscitated, they acted, designers and workers pulled out all the stops to get it ready, processes put in place to ensure the hospitals could be as best as could be to receive what was going to come, and people now telling them 'they messed up' Hindsight bullshit. People were expecting triage here. But call me naive if you want, I was also expecting everyone to be welcome and then decisions to be made not a blanket ban. That seems absolutely fucking ridiculous nigh shameful. I've no idea what you are meaning to say here Yes hindsight bullshit, we were expecting the worst, tried to prepare the best we could with additional hospitals and then somebody wanting people to admit they messed up, what would have happened if we hadn't built the Nightingale's and NHS hospitals were overrun, people would have wanted them to say 'they messed up' wouldn't they, no matter what decisions they take a certain group will always be shouting in hindsight.
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