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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 13, 2020 22:27:47 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 13, 2020 22:33:08 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 13, 2020 22:42:08 GMT
For the herd immunity fans out there-
The death rate seems to be about 1% of this infected.
You need 60-80% of the population to get it for this to have a chance of happening.
So that’s a death toll of 455,00 for 70%
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 13, 2020 22:59:25 GMT
Using my best spanish skills the test they used had a sensitivity of ~80% after validation for IgG and a specificity upwards of 99%. So that’s not going to nudge it up much from 5%, a couple of percentage points tops. Nothing that moves it to even close to 20%.
83% of those who were PCR positive and sampled had antibodies so that bears out the sensitivity estimate a bit. There may be pcr positives without antibodies too. But lots to look at. Continuing with my botched translation 😂
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Post by essexstokey on May 13, 2020 23:03:15 GMT
they really are incompetent Results of tens of thousands of Covid-19 tests disappear into ‘black hole’ link
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2020 23:03:34 GMT
Using my best spanish skills the test they used had a sensitivity of ~80% after validation for IgG and a specificity upwards of 99%. So that’s not going to nudge it up much from 5%, a couple of percentage points tops. Nothing that moves it to even close to 20%. 83% of those who were PCR positive and sampled had antibodies so that bears out the sensitivity estimate a bit. There may be pcr positives without antibodies too. But lots to look at. Continuing with my botched translation 😂 Have you got any good news, or are we all doomed?
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on May 13, 2020 23:12:17 GMT
Using my best spanish skills the test they used had a sensitivity of ~80% after validation for IgG and a specificity upwards of 99%. So that’s not going to nudge it up much from 5%, a couple of percentage points tops. Nothing that moves it to even close to 20%. 83% of those who were PCR positive and sampled had antibodies so that bears out the sensitivity estimate a bit. There may be pcr positives without antibodies too. But lots to look at. Continuing with my botched translation 😂 Have you got any good news, or are we all doomed? The development of the Rhesus Monkey model I posted about a bit earlier is very important mate. Provides us with a very close to human model for novel treatments and could be used in infection challenge studies to give us an idea about length of immunity conferred. Having good, physiologically relevant models is a great step. The other is actually this Spain data in some ways because it might actually wobble the heads of the powers that be a bit in ensuring our trace and testing technology and deployment isn’t half arsed.
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Post by musik on May 13, 2020 23:48:55 GMT
On The World of Science (Vetenskapens Värld) late tonight around midnight, they said there ARE already several existing vaccines around the world vs Corona.
However, there are a lot of testing to be done. Perhaps it could be done before the year ends. But then we have the producing problem for the public. So, in conclusion, within a couple of years from now could be realistic.
Realistically, we might be able to offer a vaccine for the risk groups within a year, spring 2021, they (A Tegnell, People Health Agency plus two more) concluded.
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Post by Han Solo on May 14, 2020 1:32:38 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now.
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on May 14, 2020 3:27:50 GMT
The earth is a bitch We've finished our news Homo sapiens have outgrown their use All the strangers came today And it looks as though they're here to stay....
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Post by nutterpotter on May 14, 2020 5:18:18 GMT
It’s not that clear but seems like it’s specificity they’re talking about. ie, has very few false negatives I believe.
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Post by dirtygary69 on May 14, 2020 6:35:04 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. If it’s up there I’ll give you the money myself. What a load of absolute shite.
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Post by werrington on May 14, 2020 6:39:23 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. You just don’t know that about WW2 The reality is and what you really mean is you don’t like people seeing things differently to you and want everybody to agree with your stance otherwise it’s negativity ....33k dead and rising, ignoring warnings about sending lambs to the slaughter at care homes without testing them to clear hospital beds but let’s just bang the positivity drum and pull together Nobody knew for sure what was about to hit us no matter who or what you are as it affects everybody but the government have ignored all prior warnings to this, the PM did not attend any COBR meetings on the issue ( they are only set up in national emergencies) and it’s ignored everything that was agreed 4 years ago by the then Conservative cabinet and experts as to plan for such a scenario It’s an absolute disgrace and could well end up in the courts or another general election as it appears it wasn’t set up at all
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Post by bathstoke on May 14, 2020 6:52:20 GMT
Totally agree. It may be a genetic thing. It maybe the proportion of the social demographic of front line workers who we have the utmost respect for. One thing I feel it is not is Racial Discrimination. Surely the sheer proportion of our BAME citizens who are in low wage front line jobs and live in poverty, particularly in London indicates their might be something more to play here and that's before you factor in the status of migrants with no recourse to pubic funds or maybe subject to NHS charges. One thing is for certain, where one group of people is four times more likely to die from a virus than another, then we're in full public enquiry territory. Morning Sheiky, The whole notion of what illegal immigrants have been doing in lockdown, without recourse to public funds is bewildering. What have they been living on in our Gig Economy. There was a article on R4 yesterday, talking about the substantial evidence linking the lack of VitD with Covid mortality. They were saying that because melanoma prevents the absorption of VitD via sunlight, this will be having an adverse affect on darker skinned people. Still a way off anything conclusive mind... Stay alert, be vigilant, be Stoke!
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Post by crapslinger on May 14, 2020 6:56:09 GMT
Totally agree. It may be a genetic thing. It maybe the proportion of the social demographic of front line workers who we have the utmost respect for. One thing I feel it is not is Racial Discrimination. Surely the sheer proportion of our BAME citizens who are in low wage front line jobs and live in poverty, particularly in London indicates their might be something more to play here and that's before you factor in the status of migrants with no recourse to pubic funds or maybe subject to NHS charges. One thing is for certain, where one group of people is four times more likely to die from a virus than another, then we're in full public enquiry territory. "the status of migrants with no recourse to pubic funds or maybe subject to NHS charges" would they be illegal immigrants ?
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Post by Gods on May 14, 2020 6:58:26 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. I suppose the point is there was something heroic about going out and fighting the Jerry to keep them from the door. Locked at home in abject misery waiting to catch a nasty virus with no more than a daring trip out to Tesco to look forward to and a bar of soap as your weapon is not the same unifying force somehow.
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Post by potteringermany on May 14, 2020 7:31:50 GMT
Using my best spanish skills the test they used had a sensitivity of ~80% after validation for IgG and a specificity upwards of 99%. So that’s not going to nudge it up much from 5%, a couple of percentage points tops. Nothing that moves it to even close to 20%. 83% of those who were PCR positive and sampled had antibodies so that bears out the sensitivity estimate a bit. There may be pcr positives without antibodies too. But lots to look at. Continuing with my botched translation 😂 Thanks for the work ESOF - it's appreciated.
I saw an interview with Andre Cristini the other day. He is doing a study in Vo (Italy) and said the basically the same (without numbers) and that it seemed only the people who got really ill that built up any kind of immunity. Have you seen any results from there?
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Post by Gob Bluth on May 14, 2020 7:33:51 GMT
Of course, stick it on the bill. There will be checks on goods out of NI. Some people still won’t care.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on May 14, 2020 7:43:23 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. I think you have something of a romanticised view of WW2. Throughout the conflict there remained a body of opinion that we should not be at war with Germany - some for pacifist reasons, others more idealogical. Numerous people avoided conscription, 'funkholes' for the wealthy existed whilst there was a thriving black market and rapes during air raids were not uncommon. It just didn't show you all that in the Pathe news reels which was subject to censorship anyway. Meanwhile back in the present - yes we've had bog roll hoarders and footballers parties breaking the lockdown but we've slso had massive lockdown compliance, over one million official volunteers to help the elderly and the shielded, thousands of local unofficial volunteer groups, students unable to study backfilling in foodbanks where regular stalwarts are self isolating and millions coming out of their houses every Thursday to show support for Care and Key workers. Social media message boards such as this are binary devices on which extreme arguements develop, some of it interesting, most of it frankly bollocks and - in the case of the Oatcake - generally populated by white middle aged males. It is therefore not representative of the wider population which by and large seems to have acted responsibly andcwith a spirit of community not seen for a few generations. As my old grandad used to say."The Good Old Days?? There wanner any!"
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Post by Northy on May 14, 2020 7:58:28 GMT
they really are incompetent Results of tens of thousands of Covid-19 tests disappear into ‘black hole’ linkwho are ?
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 14, 2020 8:03:41 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. Fuck me harping on about ww2. Where we got rid of a leader not doing his job right and replaced him with a better one. Where everything wasn’t rosy, the black market was rife, you needed wardens on the street to tell people to “put that light out” etc. Romanticised horse shite. The amount of people that don’t think a government should be held accountable is frightening.
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Post by Clem Fandango on May 14, 2020 8:04:13 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. I think you have something of a romanticised view of WW2. Throughout the conflict there remained a body of opinion that we should not be at war with Germany - some for pacifist reasons, others more idealogical. Numerous people avoided conscription, 'funkholes' for the wealthy existed whilst there was a thriving black market and rapes during air raids were not uncommon. It just didn't show you all that in the Pathe news reels which was subject to censorship anyway. Meanwhile back in the present - yes we've had bog roll hoarders and footballers parties breaking the lockdown but we've slso had massive lockdown compliance, over one million official volunteers to help the elderly and the shielded, thousands of local unofficial volunteer groups, students unable to study backfilling in foodbanks where regular stalwarts are self isolating and millions coming out of their houses every Thursday to show support for Care and Key workers. Social media message boards such as this are binary devices on which extreme arguements develop, some of it interesting, most of it frankly bollocks and - in the case of the Oatcake - generally populated by white middle aged males. It is therefore not representative of the wider population which by and large seems to have acted responsibly andcwith a spirit of community not seen for a few generations. As my old grandad used to say."The Good Old Days?? There wanner any!" and plenty of government procurement balls ups to get annoyed about as well when you look at some of the aircraf the RAF used and some of the tanks the Army fielded.
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Post by longtonlad67 on May 14, 2020 8:05:51 GMT
Yes. the economy costs lives too. Austerity and the terror it wrought on the poor didn't seem to bother too many people over the last ten years. I suppose the only hope is that the pain and misery is more evenly shouldered this time around. I didn't bother too many people because it didn't result in the terror that the left like to think it did. Is that the austerity that was required after the 2008 crash? It's strange that some people, who didn't grasp the size of the 2008 crash, now understand the impact of a recession. Austerity didn't stop young immigrants coming over to the UK to deliver pizzas in London, live in a one bedroom flat and have five kids. Our immigration policies have allowed people with no skills who are prepared to live in this conditions to move to the UK. The highest earners lost the biggest % of their income after 2008 but this fact is lost on the Labour voters. There's no chance that anyone in the private sector or anyone with half a brain will want to take a tax hit to increase public sector wages or pay for immigrants\people from BAME backgrounds to have bigger houses. The tax hit will be required to manage the deficit. The more Labour play the BAME game the harder they'll get hit by the electorate. Starmer knows it.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 14, 2020 8:19:01 GMT
Austerity and the terror it wrought on the poor didn't seem to bother too many people over the last ten years. I suppose the only hope is that the pain and misery is more evenly shouldered this time around. I didn't bother too many people because it didn't result in the terror that the left like to think it did. Is that the austerity that was required after the 2008 crash? It's strange that some people, who didn't grasp the size of the 2008 crash, now understand the impact of a recession. Austerity didn't stop young immigrants coming over to the UK to deliver pizzas in London, live in a one bedroom flat and have five kids. Our immigration policies have allowed people with no skills who are prepared to live in this conditions to move to the UK. The highest earners lost the biggest % of their income after 2008 but this fact is lost on the Labour voters. There's no chance that anyone in the private sector or anyone with half a brain will want to take a tax hit to increase public sector wages or pay for immigrants\people from BAME backgrounds to have bigger houses. The tax hit will be required to manage the deficit. The more Labour play the BAME game the harder they'll get hit by the electorate. Starmer knows it. Good grief, straight out of the BNP/BXP playbook.
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Post by sheikhmomo on May 14, 2020 8:20:41 GMT
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Post by Han Solo on May 14, 2020 8:21:52 GMT
I think the saddest thing for me with this whole virus is the negativity from so many and the amount of selfishness in society. So different to WW2 where everyone appeared to pull together to defeat the common goal. The feeling is so different Today where everyone’s just trying to point-score against each other whether it’s politicians, press or just posters on here. I appreciate it’s a very different fight but if we’d had the same attitude in 39-45 then Hitler would be laughing his boots off because we’d be fighting each other and not him. One of the biggest problems now is the mass media and the fact that everyone has a voice. Not a bad thing some would say but mighty confusing when everyone thinks they’re right. Reading some of the posts on here we might as well just give up now. You just don’t know that about WW2 The reality is and what you really mean is you don’t like people seeing things differently to you and want everybody to agree with your stance otherwise it’s negativity ....33k dead and rising, ignoring warnings about sending lambs to the slaughter at care homes without testing them to clear hospital beds but let’s just bang the positivity drum and pull together Nobody knew for sure what was about to hit us no matter who or what you are as it affects everybody but the government have ignored all prior warnings to this, the PM did not attend any COBR meetings on the issue ( they are only set up in national emergencies) and it’s ignored everything that was agreed 4 years ago by the then Conservative cabinet and experts as to plan for such a scenario It’s an absolute disgrace and could well end up in the courts or another general election as it appears it wasn’t set up at all I’m not disagreeing with the fact that huge mistakes have been made or that people will have differing views to me and I’ll respect that and can be non aggressive and not rude / abusive about someone else’s opinion. I don’t think for a minute that every life lost is Not a tragedy. I just think that the more we get entrenched in negativity (what does it achieve) then the more it drags everyone down. I guess ultimately we’re all made differently. Maybe not watching the news everyday 24/7 helps or having any sort of political aliegence. Unlike some on here I never pretend to be an expert.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on May 14, 2020 8:22:01 GMT
Austerity and the terror it wrought on the poor didn't seem to bother too many people over the last ten years. I suppose the only hope is that the pain and misery is more evenly shouldered this time around. I didn't bother too many people because it didn't result in the terror that the left like to think it did. Is that the austerity that was required after the 2008 crash? It's strange that some people, who didn't grasp the size of the 2008 crash, now understand the impact of a recession. Austerity didn't stop young immigrants coming over to the UK to deliver pizzas in London, live in a one bedroom flat and have five kids. Our immigration policies have allowed people with no skills who are prepared to live in this conditions to move to the UK. The highest earners lost the biggest % of their income after 2008 but this fact is lost on the Labour voters. There's no chance that anyone in the private sector or anyone with half a brain will want to take a tax hit to increase public sector wages or pay for immigrants\people from BAME backgrounds to have bigger houses. The tax hit will be required to manage the deficit. The more Labour play the BAME game the harder they'll get hit by the electorate. Starmer knows it. Ah - but with a BAME chancellor* who knows? *who may or may not have five kids and live in one room but as - according to you - they all do then I guess he must.
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Post by sheikhmomo on May 14, 2020 8:22:19 GMT
Surely the sheer proportion of our BAME citizens who are in low wage front line jobs and live in poverty, particularly in London indicates their might be something more to play here and that's before you factor in the status of migrants with no recourse to pubic funds or maybe subject to NHS charges. One thing is for certain, where one group of people is four times more likely to die from a virus than another, then we're in full public enquiry territory. "the status of migrants with no recourse to pubic funds or maybe subject to NHS charges" would they be illegal immigrants ? Nope. It also included some of the brave people they hypocritical shit rags will be clapping tonight. www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/28/scrap-625-pound-surcharge-for-nhs-ovserseas-staffGreat country aren't we.
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2020 8:23:47 GMT
Austerity and the terror it wrought on the poor didn't seem to bother too many people over the last ten years. I suppose the only hope is that the pain and misery is more evenly shouldered this time around. I didn't bother too many people because it didn't result in the terror that the left like to think it did.Is that the austerity that was required after the 2008 crash? It's strange that some people, who didn't grasp the size of the 2008 crash, now understand the impact of a recession. Austerity didn't stop young immigrants coming over to the UK to deliver pizzas in London, live in a one bedroom flat and have five kids. Our immigration policies have allowed people with no skills who are prepared to live in this conditions to move to the UK. The highest earners lost the biggest % of their income after 2008 but this fact is lost on the Labour voters. There's no chance that anyone in the private sector or anyone with half a brain will want to take a tax hit to increase public sector wages or pay for immigrants\people from BAME backgrounds to have bigger houses. The tax hit will be required to manage the deficit. The more Labour play the BAME game the harder they'll get hit by the electorate. Starmer knows it. It didn't bother a large chunk of the people it didn't affect. For those people self interest will always trump everything else so it's fairly pointless having the debate. Only if/when it impacted them personally would their attitude change.......
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Post by longtonlad67 on May 14, 2020 8:32:19 GMT
I didn't bother too many people because it didn't result in the terror that the left like to think it did. Is that the austerity that was required after the 2008 crash? It's strange that some people, who didn't grasp the size of the 2008 crash, now understand the impact of a recession. Austerity didn't stop young immigrants coming over to the UK to deliver pizzas in London, live in a one bedroom flat and have five kids. Our immigration policies have allowed people with no skills who are prepared to live in this conditions to move to the UK. The highest earners lost the biggest % of their income after 2008 but this fact is lost on the Labour voters. There's no chance that anyone in the private sector or anyone with half a brain will want to take a tax hit to increase public sector wages or pay for immigrants\people from BAME backgrounds to have bigger houses. The tax hit will be required to manage the deficit. The more Labour play the BAME game the harder they'll get hit by the electorate. Starmer knows it. Good grief, straight out of the BNP/BXP playbook. You really are an attention seeking moron. Tell me which part of my post is either untrue or incorrect. Go on, stop the brainless single line replies and add some value for once. The 5 kids comment wasn't made up by the way.... Just for you
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