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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 28, 2020 18:40:49 GMT
Anyone seen “my secret terrius” on Netflix? Go to series 1, episode 10, watch from 52 minutes, believe this came out two years ago The characters talk about coronavirus. Coronavirus has been around for a long time. The common cold is a coronavirus. Apparently there are coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and others. There's some trick for telling them apart based on what symptoms you start with - rhinoviruses make your nose go stuffy, but I can't remember the rest. This whole thing's made me read up about bio stuff, but it just won't stick in my head for some reason.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 28, 2020 18:41:35 GMT
Really upsetting update personally from me. A close family friend here has died this morning. She was fine a week ago, somehow contracted the virus and developed mild symptoms and started self isolation. It got worse and 3 days ago had to be taken to hospital by ambulance. Straight to intensive care. However, she was 71 and had lupus and therefore was deemed not worthy enough of a respirator given there aren't anywhere near enough. She was allowed to pass away by herself. I guess many of us will be sharing similar stories in the next few weeks and there's no preparing for it. I'm still shocked at how fast it escalated. Not sure anymore what to do or think. That was the weirdest thumbs up I've given to a post ever. I'm so sorry to hear about your loss, and I hope you don't lose any more who're close to you.
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Post by raythesailor on Mar 28, 2020 18:42:01 GMT
20,000 dead is horrible, but I believe better than the worst death toll for seasonal flu, which I think I remember seeing was something like 35,000. I think last year 18,000 died from the flu, but I dont have the statistics to hand. In that context, 20,000 would be a massive relief. I don't think people appreciate how many people unnecessarily die every winter due to poor hygiene and a lack of sensible precautions. Edit: Looking at the actual numbers, the average number of deaths due to seasonal influenza since 2014 is 17,000, ranging from 28,330 (2014/15) and 1,692 (2018/19). A 20,000 death toll would be, as stated above, tragic, but equivalent to a slightly above average year for seasonal flu deaths. fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/Quite correct. I think that many of us, and especially me, never gave much thought to Flu and the Virus’s floating around each winter, and the mortality rates. One thing is for certain. If we survive this we will never be as complacent again. Strange times indeed, often bringing out the best in people, and at times sadly the worst. Stay Safe, Stay at home, and wash your hands.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Mar 28, 2020 18:43:16 GMT
20,000 dead is horrible, but I believe better than the worst death toll for seasonal flu, which I think I remember seeing was something like 35,000. I think last year 18,000 died from the flu, but I dont have the statistics to hand. In that context, 20,000 would be a massive relief. I don't think people appreciate how many people unnecessarily die every winter due to poor hygiene and a lack of sensible precautions. Edit: Looking at the actual numbers, the average number of deaths due to seasonal influenza since 2014 is 17,000, ranging from 28,330 (2014/15) and 1,692 (2018/19). A 20,000 death toll would be, as stated above, tragic, but equivalent to a slightly above average year for seasonal flu deaths. fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/What would the deaths be if these precautions weren't imposed?
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Post by RedandWhite90 on Mar 28, 2020 18:43:48 GMT
Anyone seen “my secret terrius” on Netflix? Go to series 1, episode 10, watch from 52 minutes, believe this came out two years ago Don't encourage it mate. People will use it as factual evidence that it was the Chinese partaking in biological warfare. Usually followed by a lecture on how the earth is flat etc...
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Post by foster on Mar 28, 2020 18:43:50 GMT
I'm not up to date with this thread, but a friend of mine in the US has exactly the same symptoms as set out in the link and he scared to go to a hospital and does not know which one to pick if he does. He is already bankrupt through medical bills, so I guess they can't make him more financially broke. Stomach pain could indicate COVID-19 without other symptomsTerrible.😐 I have pain in my lungs, especially at one side and pain in my ribs there. Nothing else. Could it be Corona? Problems lying down and with any physical activity, occasionally problems breathing. I really hope it's caused by me running into a cupboard 10 days ago, since there are no other symptoms. 😒 Same and similar plus headache last 2 days. Getting weird pains all over my chest, ribs and once around the kidney area. Also feeling lightheaded and legs like jelly. Even had a couple of sweat breakouts. Went for a run last Saturday and had to stop after 4km. Never happened to me before. The breathing part I've had for quite a while now. Sometimes at night when lying on my back I have to turn over as I don't seem to get enough breath in that position. Anyway, I went to the docs a few weeks back as I thought I was going to have a heart attack one evening. I even doubled up because of chest and upper abdomen pain. I did an echo and other tests it came out all clear. I think it's stress/anxiety related tbh.
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Post by ColonelMustard on Mar 28, 2020 18:46:23 GMT
When you say, topped out, you mean the max you have to pay. So if you have an elective knee replacement ($50,000) you pay $6,000. If you then have a heart attack, you pay nothing. I get that some like to permanently suck the government’s tit, but I prefer the freedom of being able to choose how to live my life. I accept the richest Americans get extra healthcare choice and might see better outcomes, although some rich Brits go private too. But most Americans get basically fuck all choice. Old but not rich? Medicare. Working age and poor? Medicaid. Working? Whatever your employer has, loads of which suck like mine does. Falling in those gaps and not rich? Go suck it up until you're too sick to move, you maggot. Oh the amazing choice. The US spends 150% more per person than the NHS does, and the NHS is still better. A quarter+ of all hospital spending in the US is spent pushing around paper, just so that all the companies have the "freedom" to bargain with each other. Knowing that thousands of dollars are taken out of my paycheque to literally do nothing except pay a shitload of bureaucrats to make healthcare worse pisses me off no end. I'd rather suck on the government's teat so I'm healthy & strong enough to make free decisions about the rest of my life, instead of being trapped in the invisible cage of medical debt or the fear of my family & me being left to suffer. I think the NHS makes us far more free than most Americans can imagine, but I think some of the richest like it because they get to play Billy Big Bollocks and boast to each other about their strong independent choices while lording it over the gutter maggots who are clearly suffering. I understand that this won't change your opinion, and you won't change mine until you can show better health outcomes without spending 150% more per person, so we'll just disagree. But I want Brits to realise how utterly shit and toxic the US system is so we don't poison the NHS. Exactly the wonderful principle of the NHS is that the well pay for the sick and the sick dont have to worry about it. I'm lucky enough to be paying the most tax of my whole life (well until this whole thing). In the last few years the NHS has saved my mothers life twice and my best mates life. They neither of them had to worry about the costs of their treatment or filling in endless forms etc because people doing ok were paying into the system while they are sick. Its beautiful. What the fuck can be better than that?
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 28, 2020 18:49:09 GMT
20,000 dead is horrible, but I believe better than the worst death toll for seasonal flu, which I think I remember seeing was something like 35,000. I think last year 18,000 died from the flu, but I dont have the statistics to hand. In that context, 20,000 would be a massive relief. I don't think people appreciate how many people unnecessarily die every winter due to poor hygiene and a lack of sensible precautions. Edit: Looking at the actual numbers, the average number of deaths due to seasonal influenza since 2014 is 17,000, ranging from 28,330 (2014/15) and 1,692 (2018/19). A 20,000 death toll would be, as stated above, tragic, but equivalent to a slightly above average year for seasonal flu deaths. fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/What would the deaths be if these precautions weren't imposed? Coronavirus precautions? The figure quoted was 500,000 in the Imperial Model.
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Mar 28, 2020 18:52:42 GMT
Apparently there are coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and others. There's some trick for telling them apart based on what symptoms you start with - rhinoviruses make your nose go stuffy, but I can't remember the rest. Elephantviruses give you earache, giraffeviruses give you a pain in the neck...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 19:01:48 GMT
What would the deaths be if these precautions weren't imposed? Coronavirus precautions? The figure quoted was 500,000 in the Imperial Model. Just seen an interesting clip on TV where they are discussing the 20,000 deaths figure. An expert said that between half and two thirds of those dying would have likely died anyway (at a similar time) due to old age and other underlying conditions. They were suggesting that there is an overlap between deaths from Covid-19 and those that would have died anyway, had we not had this virus outbreak. If we do end up with 20,000 deaths, they say that between 6,666 and 10,000 would likely be the figure attributed solely to Covid-19 (they called these excess deaths) with the remainder being people that would have likely died anyway.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 28, 2020 19:06:11 GMT
Coronavirus precautions? The figure quoted was 500,000 in the Imperial Model. Just seen an interesting clip on TV where they are discussing the 20,000 deaths figure. An expert said that between half and two thirds of those dying would have likely died anyway (at a similar time) due to old age and other underlying conditions. They were suggesting that there is an overlap between deaths from Covid-19 and those that would have died anyway, had we not had this virus outbreak. If we do end up with 20,000 deaths, they say that between 6,666 and 10,000 would likely be the figure attributed solely to Covid-19 (they called these excess deaths) with the remainder being people that would have likely died anyway. Indeed, Vallance and Whitty have said the main cause of death from potential overload would be indirect deaths caused by A and E overload and lck of care provided to patients who needed it and ventilator scarcity etc. So effectively, Coronavirus would “push them over” so to speak. Interestingly, this is what happened with the Spanish Flu, the vast majority of cases who died actually suffered from Bacterial pneumonia super-infections due to the extremely limited health services of the time being completely overloaded and the majority of patients then being cared for in squalor. Let’s hope our capacity holds, if it does, that 20k target though incredibly sad would be far less than the worst case scenario or even moderate breaches if capacity.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 28, 2020 19:07:45 GMT
Coronavirus precautions? The figure quoted was 500,000 in the Imperial Model. Just seen an interesting clip on TV where they are discussing the 20,000 deaths figure. An expert said that between half and two thirds of those dying would have likely died anyway (at a similar time) due to old age and other underlying conditions. They were suggesting that there is an overlap between deaths from Covid-19 and those that would have died anyway, had we not had this virus outbreak. If we do end up with 20,000 deaths, they say that between 6,666 and 10,000 would likely be the figure attributed solely to Covid-19 (they called these excess deaths) with the remainder being people that would have likely died anyway. The point seems to be true, although the numbers aren't clear to me. I think it's pretty clear that without the lockdown we'd have shattered NHS morale, fucked up the economy for longer due to uncontrollable panic, and ultimately killed a lot more people too, so it's not a good argument against locking down.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Mar 28, 2020 19:09:15 GMT
Just seen an interesting clip on TV where they are discussing the 20,000 deaths figure. An expert said that between half and two thirds of those dying would have likely died anyway (at a similar time) due to old age and other underlying conditions. They were suggesting that there is an overlap between deaths from Covid-19 and those that would have died anyway, had we not had this virus outbreak. If we do end up with 20,000 deaths, they say that between 6,666 and 10,000 would likely be the figure attributed solely to Covid-19 (they called these excess deaths) with the remainder being people that would have likely died anyway. Indeed, Vallance and Whitty have said the main cause of death from potential overload would be indirect deaths caused by A and E overload and lck of care provided to patients who needed it and ventilator scarcity etc. So effectively, Coronavirus would “push them over” so to speak. Interestingly, this is what happened with the Spanish Flu, the vast majority of cases who died actually suffered from Bacterial pneumonia super-infections due to the extremely limited health services of the time being completely overloaded and the majority of patients then being cared for in squalor. Let’s hope our capacity holds, if it does, that 20k target though incredibly sad would be far less than the worst case scenario or even moderate breaches if capacity. Does the world really need to be shut down then? Is this just a huge over-reaction?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 19:11:51 GMT
Indeed, Vallance and Whitty have said the main cause of death from potential overload would be indirect deaths caused by A and E overload and lck of care provided to patients who needed it and ventilator scarcity etc. So effectively, Coronavirus would “push them over” so to speak. Interestingly, this is what happened with the Spanish Flu, the vast majority of cases who died actually suffered from Bacterial pneumonia super-infections due to the extremely limited health services of the time being completely overloaded and the majority of patients then being cared for in squalor. Let’s hope our capacity holds, if it does, that 20k target though incredibly sad would be far less than the worst case scenario or even moderate breaches if capacity. Does the world really need to be shut down then? Is this just a huge over-reaction? I think it does Dave. Although I'm no expert. Lockdown = 20,000 deaths. No lockdown = 500,000 deaths.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 28, 2020 19:14:08 GMT
What would the deaths be if these precautions weren't imposed? Coronavirus precautions? The figure quoted was 500,000 in the Imperial Model. Real world example updated to Lombardy's last week. Average weekly deaths in Lombardy: ~2000 Deaths in hospitals attributed to coronavirus in Lombardy in the last week: ~3000 Lombardy is almost 3 weeks into its lockdown, and that death rate in the UK would be 18k/week. If we hadn't done anything then it really does look like hundreds of thousands is realistic. Sure, the Imperial study could be off by say 50% but even then we'd still have had a wrecked economy, NHS etc and tragedy on an unimaginable scale. 20k would be a blessing compared with that nightmare.
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Post by mickmillslovechild on Mar 28, 2020 19:16:58 GMT
Apparently there are coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and others. There's some trick for telling them apart based on what symptoms you start with - rhinoviruses make your nose go stuffy, but I can't remember the rest. Elephantviruses give you earache, giraffeviruses give you a pain in the neck... The elephantvirus is so bad, that you never forget it!
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 28, 2020 19:21:27 GMT
Elephantviruses give you earache, giraffeviruses give you a pain in the neck... The elephantvirus is so bad, that you never forget it! I should have said that the rhinovirus makes you horny.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 28, 2020 19:21:58 GMT
Indeed, Vallance and Whitty have said the main cause of death from potential overload would be indirect deaths caused by A and E overload and lck of care provided to patients who needed it and ventilator scarcity etc. So effectively, Coronavirus would “push them over” so to speak. Interestingly, this is what happened with the Spanish Flu, the vast majority of cases who died actually suffered from Bacterial pneumonia super-infections due to the extremely limited health services of the time being completely overloaded and the majority of patients then being cared for in squalor. Let’s hope our capacity holds, if it does, that 20k target though incredibly sad would be far less than the worst case scenario or even moderate breaches if capacity. Does the world really need to be shut down then? Is this just a huge over-reaction? No, because the R0 (how many an infected person infects) is estimated now to be almost 3 times higher than flu, so basically it is moving 3 times faster than flu in terms of transmission. Meaning it would cause a massive overload of the available health service capacity if things carried on as as normal. With flu, I infect one person and they infect 1 or 2 people (average is 1.3) so it’s a pretty steady spread. With covid I infect 3, then they infect 3, then they infect 3, the spread quickly becomes exponential and impossible to manage. The flu vaccine, and sheltering of elderly during winter does a lot ot reduce the R0 of flu, as of yet we don’t have anything like that for Covid, so the only way to stop the infection overwhelming us is to suppress it as much as possible and play for time. Overload, and the lack of care provided will kill thousands more than the virus would “by itself”. We’re seeing it already in MilanStokie’s pretty tragic story, a person was denied a ventilator because of scarcity and overloaded health services and they sadly perished when if the resources had been there, they probably would have survived.
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Post by danceswithclams on Mar 28, 2020 19:23:36 GMT
Elephantviruses give you earache, giraffeviruses give you a pain in the neck... I've had that Elephantvirus. It's an experience you never forget.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Mar 28, 2020 19:25:05 GMT
Does the world really need to be shut down then? Is this just a huge over-reaction? No, because the R0 (how many an infected person infects) is estimated now to be almost 3 times higher than flu, so basically it is moving 3 times faster than flu in terms of transmission. Meaning it would cause a massive overload of the available health service capacity if things carried on as as normal. The flu vaccine, and sheltering of elderly during winter does a lot ot reduce the R0 of flu, as of yet we don’t have anything like that for Covid, so the only way to stop the infection overwhelming us is to suppress it as much as possible and play for time. How long, realistically, do we need lock down for to ensure we get back to something resembling normality sooner rather than later? 3 weeks? 4 weeks? 6? 8? More? The more I read, the more I watch, the more questions I have and the more confused I become.
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Post by Olgrligm on Mar 28, 2020 19:25:30 GMT
20,000 dead is horrible, but I believe better than the worst death toll for seasonal flu, which I think I remember seeing was something like 35,000. I think last year 18,000 died from the flu, but I dont have the statistics to hand. In that context, 20,000 would be a massive relief. I don't think people appreciate how many people unnecessarily die every winter due to poor hygiene and a lack of sensible precautions. Edit: Looking at the actual numbers, the average number of deaths due to seasonal influenza since 2014 is 17,000, ranging from 28,330 (2014/15) and 1,692 (2018/19). A 20,000 death toll would be, as stated above, tragic, but equivalent to a slightly above average year for seasonal flu deaths. fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/What would the deaths be if these precautions weren't imposed? Significantly worse, I would guess. It would suggest that the scientific advice has worked quite well.
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Post by musik on Mar 28, 2020 19:26:26 GMT
Terrible.😐 I have pain in my lungs, especially at one side and pain in my ribs there. Nothing else. Could it be Corona? Problems lying down and with any physical activity, occasionally problems breathing. I really hope it's caused by me running into a cupboard 10 days ago, since there are no other symptoms. 😒 Same and similar plus headache last 2 days. Getting weird pains all over my chest, ribs and once around the kidney area. Also feeling lightheaded and legs like jelly. Even had a couple of sweat breakouts. Went for a run last Saturday and had to stop after 4km. Never happened to me before. The breathing part I've had for quite a while now. Sometimes at night when lying on my back I have to turn over as I don't seem to get enough breath in that position. Anyway, I went to the docs a few weeks back as I thought I was going to have a heart attack one evening. I even doubled up because of chest and upper abdomen pain. I did an echo and other tests it came out all clear. I think it's stress/anxiety related tbh. No wonder these days! Take care, foster!
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Mar 28, 2020 19:28:17 GMT
Elephantviruses give you earache, giraffeviruses give you a pain in the neck... I've had that Elephantvirus. It's an experience you never forget. I'm quite surprised you didn't see them supporting World of Twist in the early 90s!
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 28, 2020 19:29:45 GMT
No, because the R0 (how many an infected person infects) is estimated now to be almost 3 times higher than flu, so basically it is moving 3 times faster than flu in terms of transmission. Meaning it would cause a massive overload of the available health service capacity if things carried on as as normal. The flu vaccine, and sheltering of elderly during winter does a lot ot reduce the R0 of flu, as of yet we don’t have anything like that for Covid, so the only way to stop the infection overwhelming us is to suppress it as much as possible and play for time. How long, realistically, do we need lock down for to ensure we get back to something resembling normality sooner rather than later? 3 weeks? 4 weeks? 6? 8? More? The more I read, the more I watch, the more questions I have and the more confused I become. The big thing will be the antibody test, if we can show people have had it and now have immunity we can start getting those people back to work over the next few months and stagger it back into normality until the vaccine is ready. If that test takes longer to validate, lockdown may have to persist, but it’s risky as each week in lockdown make less and less likely to be followed risking a deadly increase as people start to ignore it.
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Post by dutchstokie on Mar 28, 2020 19:30:03 GMT
Another tour de force from Hyde www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/corona-prince-johnson-designated-survivors-In the UK on Thursday night, millions stood on doorsteps or leaned from their windows to applaud NHS and care workers, a vastly moving moment confused only by the participation of many Conservative MPs and ministers who in 2017 not only voted against a pay rise for nurses, but loudly clapped its defeat – and whose funding priorities have left some frontline NHS workers threatening to resign over lack of protective equipment. The World Health Organization recommends the sort of full-body armour you’d want to attend dinner at Michael Gove’s; current government largesse allows for a Kiss the Cook apron and a cardboard Simon Cowell mask. 4
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Post by dutchstokie on Mar 28, 2020 19:34:29 GMT
The characters talk about coronavirus. Coronavirus has been around for a long time. The common cold is a coronavirus. Apparently there are coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and others. There's some trick for telling them apart based on what symptoms you start with - rhinoviruses make your nose go stuffy, but I can't remember the rest. This whole thing's made me read up about bio stuff, but it just won't stick in my head for some reason. Same here... now I have a bit of time on my hands I’ve started genning up on this and loads of other stuff I’ve wanted to learn but never got round to....
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Mar 28, 2020 19:35:56 GMT
Just seen an interesting clip on TV where they are discussing the 20,000 deaths figure. An expert said that between half and two thirds of those dying would have likely died anyway (at a similar time) due to old age and other underlying conditions. They were suggesting that there is an overlap between deaths from Covid-19 and those that would have died anyway, had we not had this virus outbreak. If we do end up with 20,000 deaths, they say that between 6,666 and 10,000 would likely be the figure attributed solely to Covid-19 (they called these excess deaths) with the remainder being people that would have likely died anyway. Indeed, Vallance and Whitty have said the main cause of death from potential overload would be indirect deaths caused by A and E overload and lck of care provided to patients who needed it and ventilator scarcity etc. So effectively, Coronavirus would “push them over” so to speak. Interestingly, this is what happened with the Spanish Flu, the vast majority of cases who died actually suffered from Bacterial pneumonia super-infections due to the extremely limited health services of the time being completely overloaded and the majority of patients then being cared for in squalor. Let’s hope our capacity holds, if it does, that 20k target though incredibly sad would be far less than the worst case scenario or even moderate breaches if capacity. I don't think they're talking about those who die as a result of coronavirus but not from it. ie those who can't get the care because of NHS overload and die as a result but wouldn't normally have died. But those who in a 'normal' year would have died from their illnesses anyway, however they currently happen to die. I think. If that makes sense.
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Post by sheikhmomo on Mar 28, 2020 19:37:08 GMT
Another tour de force from Hyde www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/corona-prince-johnson-designated-survivors-In the UK on Thursday night, millions stood on doorsteps or leaned from their windows to applaud NHS and care workers, a vastly moving moment confused only by the participation of many Conservative MPs and ministers who in 2017 not only voted against a pay rise for nurses, but loudly clapped its defeat – and whose funding priorities have left some frontline NHS workers threatening to resign over lack of protective equipment. The World Health Organization recommends the sort of full-body armour you’d want to attend dinner at Michael Gove’s; current government largesse allows for a Kiss the Cook apron and a cardboard Simon Cowell mask. 4 Are you in some sort of Sesame Street fever dream? Practicing your counting and that? What's the word of the day, 'NOBHEAD'? 😄
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 28, 2020 19:42:07 GMT
Indeed, Vallance and Whitty have said the main cause of death from potential overload would be indirect deaths caused by A and E overload and lck of care provided to patients who needed it and ventilator scarcity etc. So effectively, Coronavirus would “push them over” so to speak. Interestingly, this is what happened with the Spanish Flu, the vast majority of cases who died actually suffered from Bacterial pneumonia super-infections due to the extremely limited health services of the time being completely overloaded and the majority of patients then being cared for in squalor. Let’s hope our capacity holds, if it does, that 20k target though incredibly sad would be far less than the worst case scenario or even moderate breaches if capacity. I don't think they're talking about those who die as a result of coronavirus but not from it. ie those who can't get the care because of NHS overload and die as a result but wouldn't normally have died. But those who in a 'normal' year would have died from their illnesses anyway, however they currently happen to die. I think. If that makes sense. Fair point I was just making reference to the fact that’s where the majority of “avoidable” deaths will be in the overload scenario, and that it has been their main aim since moving to suppress. But it does make sense for there to be an overlap of cases in that 20k figure “best case” who would probably die anyway even if overload scenario never occurs etc.
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Mar 28, 2020 19:43:41 GMT
I don't think they're talking about those who die as a result of coronavirus but not from it. ie those who can't get the care because of NHS overload and die as a result but wouldn't normally have died. But those who in a 'normal' year would have died from their illnesses anyway, however they currently happen to die. I think. If that makes sense. Fair point I was just making reference to the fact that’s where the majority of “avoidable” deaths will be in the overload scenario, and that it has been their main aim since moving to suppress. But it does make sense for there to be an overlap of cases in that 20k figure “best case” who would probably die anyway even if overload scenario never occurs etc. That's what I was trying to say That was how I understood it when I read it anyway.
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