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Post by zerps on Mar 21, 2020 17:56:11 GMT
You wouldn’t be able to cover up mass deaths. I can think of a few countries that could. We couldn’t though mate. It’s got to be measured on deaths unfortunately, because not enough testing exists. |
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Mar 21, 2020 17:57:07 GMT
That report on Sky News from Italy is utterly terrifying and also very very sad.I was talking to a mate at work this afternoon who’s Mum is in hospital and getting weaker by the day,he was in tears because he couldn’t even go and see her😢
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 21, 2020 17:57:19 GMT
That’s just in England from the look of it  We're on the same path as Italy you'd think. We've been too slow shutting pubs. Having said that, I nipped to Sainsburys today and saw groups of kids mingling together, and adults too for that matter. Some don't seem to grasp it whatsoever. It's a pretty simple concept. Keep your distance. Don't socialise or mingle in numbers. Isolate. Wash your hands. In fact, forget "in numbers", dont come into contact with anybody if you can help it. How do people fail to grasp the gravity of this situation? Barring my wife and 2 kids, I haven't come into contact with another human being for over a week now (including parents, siblings, friends etc). Lock it down. I haven’t had that luxury but home working from Monday so have gone into the same thing now. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2020 17:58:31 GMT
I've just edited my post. If Students figures are right 2/3 of the deaths are in Lombardy alone. Why? What are they doing or not doing in Lombardy? That's horrific. Just take care. Lot’s of this pandemic doesn’t really add up. It's the exponential growth thing that our brains don't handle, but which helps things make sense. This doubles infections every 2 days or so: if you wait a month to lockdown from the first infection (which Lombardy did) then you have ~30k infections already. If they'd locked down just a week before that you'd only have 2k. Lombardy got infections early and people didn't take social distancing seriously enough, enough people kept visiting others and going to bars after the first infections. My ex got out of 2 weeks of self isolation at the beginning of March after she got back to the UK because her trip home included an unschedule Trenitalia change in Codogno. Her coworkers were teasing her and friends thought they could just come over for a quick coffee before going to the pub, and it would be fine... The piles of corpses in Lombardy probably persuaded more people elsewhere to take it seriously, which slows down the virus a lot. I did some rough calculations and the difference in #s between Lombardy and other places seem believable to me. I just hope that Lombardy's sacrifice persuades enough other people to listen. |
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Post by zerps on Mar 21, 2020 17:58:52 GMT
Could Italy be the only country publishing the correct stats? I have seen this mentioned a couple of times around whether it is true or italy just acted too late to flatten the curve or you cant actually flatten the curve..... There has to be some explanation for the severity in Italy. Maybe this is it. |
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Post by zerps on Mar 21, 2020 18:01:01 GMT
Lot’s of this pandemic doesn’t really add up. It's the exponential growth thing that our brains don't handle, but which helps things make sense. This doubles infections every 2 days or so: if you wait a month to lockdown from the first infection (which Lombardy did) then you have ~30k infections already. If they'd locked down just a week before that you'd only have 2k. Lombardy got infections early and people didn't take social distancing seriously enough, enough people kept visiting others and going to bars after the first infections. My ex got out of 2 weeks of self isolation at the beginning of March after she got back to the UK because her trip home included an unschedule Trenitalia change in Codogno. Her coworkers were teasing her and friends thought they could just come over for a quick coffee before going to the pub, and it would be fine... The piles of corpses in Lombardy probably persuaded more people elsewhere to take it seriously, which slows down the virus a lot. I did some rough calculations and the difference in #s between Lombardy and other places seem believable to me. I just hope that Lombardy's sacrifice persuades enough other people to listen. I don’t know mate. There’s no lockdown in Thailand. All bars and pubs etc are open. Thailand was the first country outside China to contract the virus and only 1 death ?! |
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2020 18:02:26 GMT
Fuck me mate. I hope to God that's not how it's going to be here. Could Italy be the only country publishing the correct stats? S Korea, Singapore and a bunch of the EU look believable to me. Italy's infection numbers will be too low because they're not testing all the mild cases, but I think the death #s in a lot of the EU plus UK look credible. It takes a long time for the deaths to start rolling in so we'll see. I think the US is undercounting deaths, but that's partly because of the lack of tests. The federal government has done everything it can to hide information and make it hard to test, so even though the doctors want to do it they just haven't been able to. For example, there was an uptick in "influenza like illnesses" in Texas hospitals over the last month, but the number that tested positive for flu was down. There's a chance some of those were covid patients, but they weren't tested for covid. |
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Post by MilanStokie on Mar 21, 2020 18:03:32 GMT
You just need to compare other countries death count and see how many cases they had that day. There are close similarities between UK figures as Italy but 2 weeks or so behind
Look at spain. Almost 300 deaths a day.
I'd say Germany is the anomaly.
I recommend everyone to get themselves home who can.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2020 18:05:47 GMT
That’s just in England from the look of it We're on the same path as Italy you'd think. We've been too slow shutting pubs. Having said that, I nipped to Sainsburys today and saw groups of kids mingling together, and adults too for that matter. Some don't seem to grasp it whatsoever. It's a pretty simple concept. Keep your distance. Don't socialise or mingle in numbers. Isolate. Wash your hands. In fact, forget "in numbers", dont come into contact with anybody if you can help it. How do people fail to grasp the gravity of this situation? Barring my wife and 2 kids, I haven't come into contact with another human being for over a week now (including parents, siblings, friends etc). Lock it down. Some friends and I are thinking of doing a joint quarantine. Only see each other, will be important for mental health the longer this drags on... But it could make people think it's fine to hang around together, and we'd all have to be absolutely sure that no-one in our group was seeing anyone else. Takes a lot of trust. |
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Post by MilanStokie on Mar 21, 2020 18:06:38 GMT
It's the exponential growth thing that our brains don't handle, but which helps things make sense. This doubles infections every 2 days or so: if you wait a month to lockdown from the first infection (which Lombardy did) then you have ~30k infections already. If they'd locked down just a week before that you'd only have 2k. Lombardy got infections early and people didn't take social distancing seriously enough, enough people kept visiting others and going to bars after the first infections. My ex got out of 2 weeks of self isolation at the beginning of March after she got back to the UK because her trip home included an unschedule Trenitalia change in Codogno. Her coworkers were teasing her and friends thought they could just come over for a quick coffee before going to the pub, and it would be fine... The piles of corpses in Lombardy probably persuaded more people elsewhere to take it seriously, which slows down the virus a lot. I did some rough calculations and the difference in #s between Lombardy and other places seem believable to me. I just hope that Lombardy's sacrifice persuades enough other people to listen. I don’t know mate. There’s no lockdown in Thailand. All bars and pubs etc are open. Thailand was the first country outside China to contract the virus and only 1 death ?! The key is identifying the source of the outbreak. If you can successfully do that you can cut the virus out of the population. Most countries haven't been able to. It's unstoppable, beyond forcing everyone to stay home even for food supplies. How you could manage that I have no idea. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2020 18:07:52 GMT
It's the exponential growth thing that our brains don't handle, but which helps things make sense. This doubles infections every 2 days or so: if you wait a month to lockdown from the first infection (which Lombardy did) then you have ~30k infections already. If they'd locked down just a week before that you'd only have 2k. Lombardy got infections early and people didn't take social distancing seriously enough, enough people kept visiting others and going to bars after the first infections. My ex got out of 2 weeks of self isolation at the beginning of March after she got back to the UK because her trip home included an unschedule Trenitalia change in Codogno. Her coworkers were teasing her and friends thought they could just come over for a quick coffee before going to the pub, and it would be fine... The piles of corpses in Lombardy probably persuaded more people elsewhere to take it seriously, which slows down the virus a lot. I did some rough calculations and the difference in #s between Lombardy and other places seem believable to me. I just hope that Lombardy's sacrifice persuades enough other people to listen. I don’t know mate. There’s no lockdown in Thailand. All bars and pubs etc are open. Thailand was the first country outside China to contract the virus and only 1 death ?! That's the suspicious thing. Weather? Luck with who got into the country? I hope there's some trick that gets this thing under control. |
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Mar 21, 2020 18:10:43 GMT
I have seen this mentioned a couple of times around whether it is true or italy just acted too late to flatten the curve or you cant actually flatten the curve..... There has to be some explanation for the severity in Italy. Maybe this is it. I'm not sure whether to believe this or not (Maybe MilanStokie has more info?) But this is from the Twitter verified account of "China's national English language newspaper" with nearly two million followers, posted in early February... |
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Post by bigvern on Mar 21, 2020 18:11:05 GMT
In just a couple of weeks I've gone from checking the scores on livescore to checking the list of countries new coronaviris cases and deaths figures. How quickly life can change.
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Post by followyoudown on Mar 21, 2020 18:11:41 GMT
I've been looking into the 80% of wages mentioned yesterday by Sunak for HMRC. So the 80% is eligible for those who become a Furloughed worker with their employer. So you remain on the books, and take no work on, and the 80% is paid so you're not laid off. It doesn't seem like it's there for people not laid off, regardless of if your employer is going to be in a dire financial situation or not. I suspect a lot of employers will be making their workers furloughed in that case. Some industries have to stay open, tesco and the coop are recruiting 25k+ staff but yes suspect this scheme maybe why john lewis has decided to close its stores. |
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Post by MilanStokie on Mar 21, 2020 18:13:22 GMT
There has to be some explanation for the severity in Italy. Maybe this is it. I'm not sure whether to believe this or not (Maybe MilanStokie has more info?) But this is from the Twitter verified account of "China's national English language newspaper" with nearly two million followers, posted in early February... Don't really know much about it, but it wouldn't explain why lombardia is struggling and Tuscany less so. For me it can only be far too many people are just ignoring the law. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 18:15:48 GMT
I've been looking into the 80% of wages mentioned yesterday by Sunak for HMRC. So the 80% is eligible for those who become a Furloughed worker with their employer. So you remain on the books, and take no work on, and the 80% is paid so you're not laid off. It doesn't seem like it's there for people not laid off, regardless of if your employer is going to be in a dire financial situation or not. I suspect a lot of employers will be making their workers furloughed in that case. Some industries have to stay open, tesco and the coop are recruiting 25k+ staff but yes suspect this scheme maybe why john lewis has decided to close its stores. John Lewis is on it’s arse. I predicted administration for them in 18 months but Coronavirus might speed that up...... |
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2020 18:16:29 GMT
Thinking about the death stats and looking for context. There were 616,014 deaths registered in the UK in 2018. If the Chief Medical Officers hope that corona kills 20,000 in the UK proves correct then you'd be looking at an increment of about 12 days worth of regular deaths. You can see why that might be thought of as a 'result' in the current circumstances. I guess there is quite some collateral damage too. Are the numerous others diseases which take out the 616,014 being as well treated as so much resource is directed to corona? And what of the mental health of a populous in isolation, it must take a withering toll? And of course crashing the economy causes impoverishment which in turn kills. Here's a worst case example: That UK death rate is just under 12k/week. Lombardy's death rate over the last week, if applied to the UK, is over 12k/week. And it's been accelerating. That's how bad the worst case could be. It would be shocking if it ends up like that all over the UK though, I think the best guess is that there'll be clusters but other places will be struggling but not overwhelmed. If the government hadn't bothered with social isolation, shutting things down etc then the whole country would be like Lombardy by April. |
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Post by MilanStokie on Mar 21, 2020 18:17:34 GMT
Thinking about the death stats and looking for context. There were 616,014 deaths registered in the UK in 2018. If the Chief Medical Officers hope that corona kills 20,000 in the UK proves correct then you'd be looking at an increment of about 12 days worth of regular deaths. You can see why that might be thought of as a 'result' in the current circumstances. I guess there is quite some collateral damage too. Are the numerous others diseases which take out the 616,014 being as well treated as so much resource is directed to corona? And what of the mental health of a populous in isolation, it must take a withering toll? And of course crashing the economy causes impoverishment which in turn kills. Here's a worst case example: That UK death rate is just under 12k/week. Lombardy's death rate over the last week, if applied to the UK, is over 12k/week. And it's been accelerating. That's how bad the worst case could be. It would be shocking if it ends up like that all over the UK though, I think the best guess is that there'll be clusters but other places will be struggling but not overwhelmed. If the government hadn't bothered with social isolation, shutting things down etc then the whole country would be like Lombardy by April. Based on current figures London stands to be the new lombardia |
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 21, 2020 18:18:07 GMT
First confirmed case at my girlfriend's hospital in the US. Time to buckle in.
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Post by durbanscircus on Mar 21, 2020 18:18:22 GMT
I have seen this mentioned a couple of times around whether it is true or italy just acted too late to flatten the curve or you cant actually flatten the curve..... There has to be some explanation for the severity in Italy. Maybe this is it. More likely to be these 1. one of the oldest age profiles in Europe 2. A failure to act in January when it was spreading 3. A culture of drinking and smoking - particularly amongst men who are twice as likely to die 4. high density living in towns and cities 5. A culture of families meeting and eating together across generations Spain has some of these characteristics and death is accelerating quickly The scary thing is we may be on the same trajectory as Italy with a time lag and there Health Service is much better provided for in terms of ICU beds and ventilators |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 18:20:44 GMT
We're on the same path as Italy you'd think. We've been too slow shutting pubs. Having said that, I nipped to Sainsburys today and saw groups of kids mingling together, and adults too for that matter. Some don't seem to grasp it whatsoever. It's a pretty simple concept. Keep your distance. Don't socialise or mingle in numbers. Isolate. Wash your hands. In fact, forget "in numbers", dont come into contact with anybody if you can help it. How do people fail to grasp the gravity of this situation? Barring my wife and 2 kids, I haven't come into contact with another human being for over a week now (including parents, siblings, friends etc). Lock it down. I haven’t had that luxury but home working from Monday so have gone into the same thing now. My son got sent home from school on Monday so the whole house has had to self isolate. I've worked from home this week. |
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Post by zerps on Mar 21, 2020 18:20:58 GMT
Here's a worst case example: That UK death rate is just under 12k/week. Lombardy's death rate over the last week, if applied to the UK, is over 12k/week. And it's been accelerating. That's how bad the worst case could be. It would be shocking if it ends up like that all over the UK though, I think the best guess is that there'll be clusters but other places will be struggling but not overwhelmed. If the government hadn't bothered with social isolation, shutting things down etc then the whole country would be like Lombardy by April. Based on current figures London stands to be the new lombardia How’s that? |
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Post by followyoudown on Mar 21, 2020 18:21:58 GMT
Some industries have to stay open, tesco and the coop are recruiting 25k+ staff but yes suspect this scheme maybe why john lewis has decided to close its stores. John Lewis is on it’s arse. I predicted administration for them in 18 months but Coronavirus might speed that up...... For now the jobs are safe but long term like all these non specialist shops bhs, debenhams etc etc they are done like most things they just serve as a price comparison / showroom for people to buy cheaper from amazon |
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Post by Foster on Mar 21, 2020 18:24:45 GMT
There has to be some explanation for the severity in Italy. Maybe this is it. More likely to be these 1. one of the oldest age profiles in Europe 2. A failure to act in January when it was spreading 3. A culture of drinking and smoking - particularly amongst men who are twice as likely to die 4. high density living in towns and cities 5. A culture of families meeting and eating together across generations Spain has some of these characteristics and death is accelerating quickly The scary thing is we may be on the same trajectory as Italy with a time lag and there Health Service is much better provided for in terms of ICU beds and ventilators Based on the cultural aspect of families living together I would expect similar or worse fatality rates in Mediterranean countries, Africa as a whole and the Middle East. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 18:24:48 GMT
Based on current figures London stands to be the new lombardia How’s that? Not out. |
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Post by zerps on Mar 21, 2020 18:27:12 GMT
More likely to be these 1. one of the oldest age profiles in Europe 2. A failure to act in January when it was spreading 3. A culture of drinking and smoking - particularly amongst men who are twice as likely to die 4. high density living in towns and cities 5. A culture of families meeting and eating together across generations Spain has some of these characteristics and death is accelerating quickly The scary thing is we may be on the same trajectory as Italy with a time lag and there Health Service is much better provided for in terms of ICU beds and ventilators Based on the cultural aspect of families living together I would expect similar or worse fatality rates in Mediterranean countries, Africa as a whole and the Middle East. India and Africa haven’t seen anything like Europe. Is it a climate thing? |
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Post by MilanStokie on Mar 21, 2020 18:28:18 GMT
Based on current figures London stands to be the new lombardia How’s that? Based on UK and Italy have a very similar trajectory with a 2 week gap. Then based on London being by far the most affected of the UK figures (at least that's what I saw) Madrid is the same for Spain. There appears to be an epicenter in every country. |
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Post by scfcno1fan on Mar 21, 2020 18:29:55 GMT
Another 800 dead in Italy?!
That’s just mad.
How close is the UK following Italy in terms of number of deaths?
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Post by henry on Mar 21, 2020 18:31:10 GMT
793 dead today in Italy... Thats horrendous MilanStokie, hope you stay safe. I'm dreading whats round the corner for the UK. |
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Post by zerps on Mar 21, 2020 18:32:38 GMT
Based on UK and Italy have a very similar trajectory with a 2 week gap. Then based on London being by far the most affected of the UK figures (at least that's what I saw) Madrid is the same for Spain. There appears to be an epicenter in every country. How are we following the same trajectory? Italy has even surpassed China. Italy is on it’s own trajectory. Stay safe mate. |
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