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Post by wagsastokie on Jan 13, 2021 17:21:00 GMT
Here is some quick maths Let's say If 207k per day is the best we can muster, by their target date we would be a grand total of around 4.6m people short. Even if they hit their daily target tomorrow, they would need to do an extra 13k or so vaccinations per day to catch up The one thing I will add is they said all in the top four categories will be offered a vaccine by the middle of feb There is sadly no way they will have a full take up so the actual amount vaccinated will be less
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Post by Gods on Jan 13, 2021 17:21:10 GMT
The worst actual day was April 8th 2020 where 1,072 died. The worst lately has been January 7th Where 847 died (this will increase slightly due to the lag) The seven day rolling average is now over 1000, it's impossible to imagine 1,072 will not be bettered, it's already baked in sadly.
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Post by superjw on Jan 13, 2021 17:41:23 GMT
Here is some quick maths Let's say If 207k per day is the best we can muster, by their target date we would be a grand total of around 4.6m people short. Even if they hit their daily target tomorrow, they would need to do an extra 13k or so vaccinations per day to catch up The one thing I will add is they said all in the top four categories will be offered a vaccine by the middle of feb There is sadly no way they will have a full take up so the actual amount vaccinated will be less Yes that's right, the NET vaccinations will no doubt be less than the offers made. So do we think this daily target is based on anything? You would have thought the scientists could model an expected uptake target based on flu jabs for example. If they have and this 350k is the real deal then they are already way behind. If that is based on the belief all vulnerable will have the jab then they are aiming for something they can never reach.
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Post by Davef on Jan 13, 2021 17:59:02 GMT
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Post by wagsastokie on Jan 13, 2021 18:01:25 GMT
The one thing I will add is they said all in the top four categories will be offered a vaccine by the middle of feb There is sadly no way they will have a full take up so the actual amount vaccinated will be less Yes that's right, the NET vaccinations will no doubt be less than the offers made. So do we think this daily target is based on anything? You would have thought the scientists could model an expected uptake target based on flu jabs for example. If they have and this 350k is the real deal then they are already way behind. If that is based on the belief all vulnerable will have the jab then they are aiming for something they can never reach. Well we shall see I think they will hit there target And as a person who’s in the extremely clinically vulnerable I hope they do On the point of take up in the conversations I’ve had with people about 20 percent of them who are in the most at risk groups won’t have it One of the blokes I sometimes see whilst dog walking won’t have it because it’s a Tory telling him to have it which is the daftest reason I’ve heard yet
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jan 13, 2021 18:22:43 GMT
The one thing I will add is they said all in the top four categories will be offered a vaccine by the middle of feb There is sadly no way they will have a full take up so the actual amount vaccinated will be less Yes that's right, the NET vaccinations will no doubt be less than the offers made. So do we think this daily target is based on anything? You would have thought the scientists could model an expected uptake target based on flu jabs for example. If they have and this 350k is the real deal then they are already way behind. If that is based on the belief all vulnerable will have the jab then they are aiming for something they can never reach. They have modelled it haven't they? If you go onto that NHS website thingy which predicts when you will get jabbed there is an assumption of uptake (about 76% from memory). I would expect uptake for this to be higher than flu (which I believe I have read is around 55%) because (1) it's profile and (2) they're actively phoning people directly to book them in rather than relying people to respond to a poster in the GP's waiting room
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jan 13, 2021 18:29:17 GMT
Yes that's right, the NET vaccinations will no doubt be less than the offers made. So do we think this daily target is based on anything? You would have thought the scientists could model an expected uptake target based on flu jabs for example. If they have and this 350k is the real deal then they are already way behind. If that is based on the belief all vulnerable will have the jab then they are aiming for something they can never reach. Well we shall see I think they will hit there target And as a person who’s in the extremely clinically vulnerable I hope they do On the point of take up in the conversations I’ve had with people about 20 percent of them who are in the most at risk groups won’t have it One of the blokes I sometimes see whilst dog walking won’t have it because it’s a Tory telling him to have it which is the daftest reason I’ve heard yet Yes pretty daft - particularly as if he doesn't want to hear it from Johnson or Hancock then Starmer's also been vocal on the need to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible. Unless he's the Tory your mate is referring to (thought I'd get that in before you did).
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Post by wagsastokie on Jan 13, 2021 18:52:50 GMT
Well we shall see I think they will hit there target And as a person who’s in the extremely clinically vulnerable I hope they do On the point of take up in the conversations I’ve had with people about 20 percent of them who are in the most at risk groups won’t have it One of the blokes I sometimes see whilst dog walking won’t have it because it’s a Tory telling him to have it which is the daftest reason I’ve heard yet Yes pretty daft - particularly as if he doesn't want to hear it from Johnson or Hancock then Starmer's also been vocal on the need to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible. Unless he's the Tory your mate is referring to (thought I'd get that in before you did). Ambling the dog at roughly the same time everyday and you generally see the same people So over the best part of nine months you tend to spark up the odd socially distanced conversation We got on to the vaccine of the last few weeks and most can’t wait to get it But as I’ve said there’s people who have never had the flu jab so there not going to have the covid jab And of course the bloke who won’t have it because it’s a Tory government telling him to
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Post by davejohnno1 on Jan 13, 2021 19:06:40 GMT
Just seen that Boris jibed at Starmer today that "a 23 year old premier league player is doing a better job at providing opposition to the government than the actual opposition".
😂 fair play 😂
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Post by Northy on Jan 13, 2021 19:44:46 GMT
Yes that's right, the NET vaccinations will no doubt be less than the offers made. So do we think this daily target is based on anything? You would have thought the scientists could model an expected uptake target based on flu jabs for example. If they have and this 350k is the real deal then they are already way behind. If that is based on the belief all vulnerable will have the jab then they are aiming for something they can never reach. They have modelled it haven't they? If you go onto that NHS website thingy which predicts when you will get jabbed there is an assumption of uptake (about 76% from memory). I would expect uptake for this to be higher than flu (which I believe I have read is around 55%) because (1) it's profile and (2) they're actively phoning people directly to book them in rather than relying people to respond to a poster in the GP's waiting room I was sent a text by the doctors for a flu jab, as everyone close i know who had one
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jan 13, 2021 19:55:04 GMT
They have modelled it haven't they? If you go onto that NHS website thingy which predicts when you will get jabbed there is an assumption of uptake (about 76% from memory). I would expect uptake for this to be higher than flu (which I believe I have read is around 55%) because (1) it's profile and (2) they're actively phoning people directly to book them in rather than relying people to respond to a poster in the GP's waiting room I was sent a text by the doctors for a flu jab, as everyone close i know who had one This year yes - bet you've never had one before though.
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Post by Northy on Jan 13, 2021 19:57:22 GMT
Thats not 24/7 though mate which is being muted now🤔 They can't achieve it and they know it. How long before Mr Hancock announces they are pushing back the review into March because they have fallen behind? Even good old Gav is starting to let slip schools may not return after Feb half term. I think half term was used as a sweetner to get the public to accept the lockdown terms. It was never going to be that short. Drives me mad that politicians can't stick to a single thing they say. If most of us acted like this at work we all know where we would be.. It's a target, something to aim for and push as much as they can to achieve, it's taking the nhs, the army, retired medics, people at the chemists, volunteers to help with admin etc. If they don't make it I'll still be saying well done as we seem to be one of the best in the world at rolling it out, one good thing to come out of this. If you don't set targets you don't achieve much.
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Post by Northy on Jan 13, 2021 19:58:10 GMT
I was sent a text by the doctors for a flu jab, as everyone close i know who had one This year yes - bet you've never had one before though. No, as its the first flu jab I've had Sure I've seen tv adverts in the past as well. Mother in law has had texts in the past via the wife's phone
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Post by smallthorner on Jan 13, 2021 19:58:52 GMT
I'm absolutely gobsmacked how football is allowed to continue at the moment. Those pictures of the crowd scenes at Marine are beyond belief in the current circumstances. No doubt money is the top reason for it still going on but by allowing football (and other sport) to continue you are keeping a sizeable chunk of the population entertained in their own homes (and not out spreading the virus). There's obvious mental health benefits too by allowing a tiny degree of normality. Obviously get your point. Having said that "sizable chunk" is probably OTT. That Marine crowd was totally out of order in my opinion and exactly the type of thing we are trying to stop. Football has got throngs of people criss-crossing the country. Cant be right in the current restrictions.
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Post by chigstoke on Jan 13, 2021 20:01:38 GMT
Had a text today from my new doctors to say they are beginning vaccinations for covid. Not for me like, because I'm 24, but my granddad is booked in ready, gets it next week. Once him and my nan have had that first dose, I'll be breathing a HUGE sigh of relief. Plus they cook a right good chips and egg, they promised me some when this bollocks is over with, so the quicker the better for restrictions to fuck off
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Post by smallthorner on Jan 13, 2021 20:11:18 GMT
Had a text today from my new doctors to say they are beginning vaccinations for covid. Not for me like, because I'm 24, but my granddad is booked in ready, gets it next week. Once him and my nan have had that first dose, I'll be breathing a HUGE sigh of relief. Plus they cook a right good chips and egg, they promised me some when this bollocks is over with, so the quicker the better for restrictions to fuck off That's the spirit. We need some positivity and forward looking. And your nan's egg and chips is as good as anything 👍😊
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 13, 2021 20:15:02 GMT
Positive cases isn't bad considering we tested a huge 584,760 yesterday 👍 It's a really, really big deal that the numbers are going down from a few days ago. Lockdown is containing the virus, for the third and hopefully last time we'll need it. A lot of loved ones are still going to die, but tens of thousands more will have been saved if the numbers keep going like they are.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jan 13, 2021 20:20:09 GMT
[snip] NHS vaccine page[snip] Not sure if you're being sarcastic or proving a petty point but it's literally on the first link you posted. I think I misunderstood what you meant first time round mate! I believe some vaccines stop spread and some don't, now we just don't know whether the covid vaccines stop infection or spread. The NHS page says "There is a chance you might still get or spread coronavirus even if you have the vaccine", so I think that fits. They're just being careful until we get the data, but with a bit of luck the vaccines actually will stop spread. Which means we could get back into pubs and stadiums quicker, so I'm going to keep some hope.
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Post by chad on Jan 13, 2021 20:20:40 GMT
Yes that's right, the NET vaccinations will no doubt be less than the offers made. So do we think this daily target is based on anything? You would have thought the scientists could model an expected uptake target based on flu jabs for example. If they have and this 350k is the real deal then they are already way behind. If that is based on the belief all vulnerable will have the jab then they are aiming for something they can never reach. Well we shall see I think they will hit there target And as a person who’s in the extremely clinically vulnerable I hope they do On the point of take up in the conversations I’ve had with people about 20 percent of them who are in the most at risk groups won’t have it One of the blokes I sometimes see whilst dog walking won’t have it because it’s a Tory telling him to have it which is the daftest reason I’ve heard yet Obviously Waggy I don’t know the age of the people who you’re talking to But I’m 69 so my circle of friends are all around that age. I honestly don’t know anyone that is going to refuse the vaccine. Most would queue up tomorrow for a chance of having it. As would I
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Post by chigstoke on Jan 13, 2021 20:21:59 GMT
Had a text today from my new doctors to say they are beginning vaccinations for covid. Not for me like, because I'm 24, but my granddad is booked in ready, gets it next week. Once him and my nan have had that first dose, I'll be breathing a HUGE sigh of relief. Plus they cook a right good chips and egg, they promised me some when this bollocks is over with, so the quicker the better for restrictions to fuck off That's the spirit. We need some positivity and forward looking. And your nan's egg and chips is as good as anything 👍😊 At this point, looking forward is all I can do mate. The moment I get to see not just them, but mates and other family properly will be a joyous day for me. For us all actually as we get to make up for the time we lost. Won't be long till it's been 1 year since the beginning of the pandemic now. We have a works visit to Liverpool to do for a business partnership, need to get to the pub and a mate has got his first home so needs christening with a good piss up! Can't wait
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Post by wagsastokie on Jan 13, 2021 20:28:37 GMT
Well we shall see I think they will hit there target And as a person who’s in the extremely clinically vulnerable I hope they do On the point of take up in the conversations I’ve had with people about 20 percent of them who are in the most at risk groups won’t have it One of the blokes I sometimes see whilst dog walking won’t have it because it’s a Tory telling him to have it which is the daftest reason I’ve heard yet Obviously Waggy I don’t know the age of the people who you’re talking to But I’m 69 so my circle of friends are all around that age. I honestly don’t know anyone that is going to refuse the vaccine. Most would queue up tomorrow for a chance of having it. As would I I’d say the average age of the people I see dog walking is about seventy Most of them will I’d say around 80 odd percent but there are people of all ages that will refuse it If Nationally they hit a 85 % take up I think it will be a good thing
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Post by superjw on Jan 13, 2021 20:48:46 GMT
They can't achieve it and they know it. How long before Mr Hancock announces they are pushing back the review into March because they have fallen behind? Even good old Gav is starting to let slip schools may not return after Feb half term. I think half term was used as a sweetner to get the public to accept the lockdown terms. It was never going to be that short. Drives me mad that politicians can't stick to a single thing they say. If most of us acted like this at work we all know where we would be.. It's a target, something to aim for and push as much as they can to achieve, it's taking the nhs, the army, retired medics, people at the chemists, volunteers to help with admin etc. If they don't make it I'll still be saying well done as we seem to be one of the best in the world at rolling it out, one good thing to come out of this. If you don't set targets you don't achieve much. I agree with you, we are the best in the world at this and it shows our expertise in this field. I'm incredibly proud of the scientific community and the health workers, forces etc delivering this. I'm more cynical than you on their targets though, it's clear the government have made a commitment to hit that target to get these top priority groups sorted. In short, we are going nowhere fast until these people have been offered and those that accept have taken the jab. Delays in the vaccine rollout mean longer lockdown it's as simple as that really. As you say it's incredible what we are doing to roll this out. I really hope they smash it and show the world how it's done.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 13, 2021 20:59:59 GMT
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Post by bgreen13 on Jan 13, 2021 22:09:47 GMT
[snip] NHS vaccine page[snip] Not sure if you're being sarcastic or proving a petty point but it's literally on the first link you posted. I think I misunderstood what you meant first time round mate! I believe some vaccines stop spread and some don't, now we just don't know whether the covid vaccines stop infection or spread. The NHS page says "There is a chance you might still get or spread coronavirus even if you have the vaccine", so I think that fits. They're just being careful until we get the data, but with a bit of luck the vaccines actually will stop spread. Which means we could get back into pubs and stadiums quicker, so I'm going to keep some hope. No worries. Hopefully for everyones sake.
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Post by smallthorner on Jan 13, 2021 22:11:17 GMT
Are the pictures and reports on News at Ten enough to make all you Covid sceptics that this is clear and present danger?
Or is it an ITV mainstream media stunt?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jan 13, 2021 22:11:59 GMT
Watching News at Ten tonight is just heartbreaking and most patients in their 50’s
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Post by Davef on Jan 13, 2021 22:32:01 GMT
Watching News at Ten tonight is just heartbreaking and most patients in their 50’s Heartbreaking indeed, and tragic that family members aren't permitted to share the final moments of their loved ones' lives. Yet an ITV news crew can somehow get access to film in an intensive care ward...
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jan 13, 2021 22:36:02 GMT
Watching News at Ten tonight is just heartbreaking and most patients in their 50’s Heartbreaking indeed, and tragic that family members aren't permitted to share the final moments of their loved ones' lives. Yet an ITV news crew can somehow get access to film in an intensive care ward... Yes fair point Dave
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Post by smallthorner on Jan 13, 2021 22:36:11 GMT
Watching News at Ten tonight is just heartbreaking and most patients in their 50’s Heartbreaking indeed, and tragic that family members aren't permitted to share the final moments of their loved ones' lives. Yet an ITV news crew can somehow get access to film in an intensive care ward... There you go.
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Post by Davef on Jan 13, 2021 22:36:48 GMT
Heartbreaking indeed, and tragic that family members aren't permitted to share the final moments of their loved ones' lives. Yet an ITV news crew can somehow get access to film in an intensive care ward... There you go. There you go what?
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