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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 27, 2020 13:01:32 GMT
I have seen enough of Bill Gates to make a fair judgement about him, I would rather judge him by how he comes across rather than by some conspiracy theory about whatever evil plot he is up to and based on pure fantasy. If you were Bill Gates and your saw potential in some of the experiments going on then of course you would help fund it, this is what he does. He isn't backing one horse he is putting money where good progress is being made and you don't need an algorithm to work that out. Why should I care about what Ferguson forecasted when it was a completely new virus with very little information to go off? It's easy to be way out when you don't have the information there isn't it? As you learn more things change, hindsight is great isn't it. Most people would take that prediction with a pinch of salt like all predictions. The Government didn't take it with a pinch of salt did they? Models worked out from early data and they bought in measures to reduce the impact. I can't understand why people are making a big deal about it when the data was still raw and that was without restrictions in place. Maybe we should have just carried on to see how it all turned out to see if he was right. If we had a much colder winter and spring then things might have been different but the weather was pretty decent throughout. There are many factors to consider when making predictions and the weather can have a huge influence on people's habits and on the spread of viruses as we found out in summer.
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Post by dutchstokie on Oct 27, 2020 13:28:33 GMT
Weakness And lack of resilience masquerading as champions of freedoms it’s this very weakness and lack of fortitude which has allowed the virus to take off Anyone who sees the next story about virus overload i Europe can see lockdown was and is inevitable it’s hair now about how many we kill and Maine before we have the guts to do it and enforce it properly . I don’t think the government have covered themselves in glory and have not been ruthless enough because they’re scared of upsetting people. But one of the biggest issues is the inhability of people to do the basics. Is it that much of a sacrifice to - Wear a mask when you go shopping or when on public transport (unless you have a health condition) - Keep 2m apart when you can - Not go on protests - keep in your bubble Some People make out like they’re being asked to do far worse. If everybody had kept to the above we wouldn’t be where we are now but there’s always going to be that minority who won’t toe the line hence why everyone’s saying we may as well not bother because it isn’t working. It’s doing the small things that stop us having to pay the price long term. Bang on the money..... This situation will be with us for a longtime so the sooner people realise that its vital to follow the simple thigns the better. We have a press conference over here this evening and leaks to the press are suggesting that NL will be going into fuill lockdown. To re-iterate its NOT confirmed so we'll just have to wait to see wht Marke Rutte says.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 27, 2020 13:42:26 GMT
Weakness And lack of resilience masquerading as champions of freedoms it’s this very weakness and lack of fortitude which has allowed the virus to take off Anyone who sees the next story about virus overload i Europe can see lockdown was and is inevitable it’s hair now about how many we kill and Maine before we have the guts to do it and enforce it properly . I don’t think the government have covered themselves in glory and have not been ruthless enough because they’re scared of upsetting people. But one of the biggest issues is the inhability of people to do the basics. Is it that much of a sacrifice to - Wear a mask when you go shopping or when on public transport (unless you have a health condition) - Keep 2m apart when you can - Not go on protests - keep in your bubble Some People make out like they’re being asked to do far worse. If everybody had kept to the above we wouldn’t be where we are now but there’s always going to be that minority who won’t toe the line hence why everyone’s saying we may as well not bother because it isn’t working. It’s doing the small things that stop us having to pay the price long term. That would be common sense though and there isn't much of that about. You could add downloading the NHS app to that too even if you don't really want to. I don't trust this government one bit and didn't want to but I still downloaded the damn thing.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Oct 27, 2020 13:43:24 GMT
For the billionth time, this is NOT unusual. You do not maintain high levels of circulating antibodies in perpetuity. What matters is the speed, magnitude and strength of secondary antibody response and any cellular immunity acquired by now specialised T-Cells. The first official reinfection was an asymptomatic case (having been symptomatic first time around) who had no detectable antibodies a couple of months after the 1st infection, but a large response second time around that probably rendered him asymptomatic. If the discovery was “memory b cells do not exists after infection” then fair enough, but to cite circulating antibodies as the sole marker for immunity is incorrect. The entire strategy of vaccine mediated herd immunity is predicated on this concept of memory based responses. Poor reporting yet again, mind you Sky’s articles are riddled with scientific inaccuracy. Getting absolutely sick of this story repeated every 2 f*cking months. www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html good summary from the excellent Prof Akiko Iwasaki, for my money she’s one of the finest on twitter at producing effective sci-comm for laymen. Recommend a read if you have the time.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 27, 2020 13:58:16 GMT
Shall see what the numbers for the rest of the country but the number for Wales today. 50ish more cases than last week and 3 less deaths. And it won't have anything to do with the circuit breaker.
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Post by andystokey on Oct 27, 2020 14:08:44 GMT
For the billionth time, this is NOT unusual. You do not maintain high levels of circulating antibodies in perpetuity. What matters is the speed, magnitude and strength of secondary antibody response and any cellular immunity acquired by now specialised T-Cells. The first official reinfection was an asymptomatic case (having been symptomatic first time around) who had no detectable antibodies a couple of months after the 1st infection, but a large response second time around that probably rendered him asymptomatic. If the discovery was “memory b cells do not exists after infection” then fair enough, but to cite circulating antibodies as the sole marker for immunity is incorrect. The entire strategy of vaccine mediated herd immunity is predicated on this concept of memory based responses. Poor reporting yet again, mind you Sky’s articles are riddled with scientific inaccuracy. Getting absolutely sick of this story repeated every 2 f*cking months. www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html good summary from the excellent Prof Akiko Iwasaki, for my money she’s one of the finest on twitter at producing effective sci-comm for laymen. Recommend a read if you have the time. Thank you 👍
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Post by Davef on Oct 27, 2020 14:56:37 GMT
For the billionth time, this is NOT unusual. You do not maintain high levels of circulating antibodies in perpetuity. What matters is the speed, magnitude and strength of secondary antibody response and any cellular immunity acquired by now specialised T-Cells. The first official reinfection was an asymptomatic case (having been symptomatic first time around) who had no detectable antibodies a couple of months after the 1st infection, but a large response second time around that probably rendered him asymptomatic. If the discovery was “memory b cells do not exists after infection” then fair enough, but to cite circulating antibodies as the sole marker for immunity is incorrect. The entire strategy of vaccine mediated herd immunity is predicated on this concept of memory based responses. Poor reporting yet again, mind you Sky’s articles are riddled with scientific inaccuracy. Getting absolutely sick of this story repeated every 2 f*cking months. www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html good summary from the excellent Prof Akiko Iwasaki, for my money she’s one of the finest on twitter at producing effective sci-comm for laymen. Recommend a read if you have the time. Why are Imperial College (and by association Ferguson) continually the go-to people for the media when other universities are also publishing studies (some of them peer-reviewed as well, unlike this one). The study and article comes just days after it was revealed that the Oxford vaccine triggered a t-cell response in older age groups. Did Sky even report that?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 15:03:05 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 15:05:51 GMT
Shall see what the numbers for the rest of the country but the number for Wales today. 50ish more cases than last week and 3 less deaths. And it won't have anything to do with the circuit breaker. Here is the Scottish and the Irish
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 27, 2020 15:06:43 GMT
I don’t think the government have covered themselves in glory and have not been ruthless enough because they’re scared of upsetting people. But one of the biggest issues is the inhability of people to do the basics. Is it that much of a sacrifice to - Wear a mask when you go shopping or when on public transport (unless you have a health condition) - Keep 2m apart when you can - Not go on protests - keep in your bubble Some People make out like they’re being asked to do far worse. If everybody had kept to the above we wouldn’t be where we are now but there’s always going to be that minority who won’t toe the line hence why everyone’s saying we may as well not bother because it isn’t working. It’s doing the small things that stop us having to pay the price long term. Is that also true in Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Germany or just the UK? As I understand it in the first wave: 1 Italy were unlucky in that they were hit before anyone else in Europe. There health service nearly collapsed before they knew what was happening and they had to go for a strong lock down out of necessity, 2 Spain, France and Belgium didn't react quick enough and they ended up in the same position as Italy and had to lock down. The lock down in France was far more draconian and heavy handed than anything we've seen in the UK. 3 Germany, Finland and Norway took what was happening in Italy seriously, locked down early and got through the first wave far better as a result. 4 The UK dithered, toyed with herd immunity and reacted far too late despite having the advantage of seeing what was happening in Italy, Spain, France and Belgium. As a result we ended up with the most deaths and one of the longest lock downs in Europe. 5 Sweden went for herd immunity (although they've since denied this) but asked their people to voluntarily do what amounted to a light lock down which for the most part the Swedes did. They ended up doing far worse than their near neighbours who did lock down but not that badly due to the high level of voluntary compliance. This time round the UK government seems to have learned it's lesson from the first wave and want to take action to preempt the second wave taking off - whether they are doing enough is a matter of debate. The problem this time round isn't the government dithering, it's the ground swell of opinion against the measures designed to prevent a second lock down with some people suggesting non-compliance and public protests as the way forward - which will only make a full lock down even more likely. I think Andy is right - if people in the UK got on with doing the simple things we'll end up being more like Sweden but hopefully with a better record. As it is I think we'll end up being more like France with a worse record. You can probably put our woeful performance in the first wave down to the stupidity of government but if we do badly in the second wave it will be in part at least due to the stupidity of the governed. For once I'd take some advice from our American cousins on the way forward:
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 27, 2020 15:12:07 GMT
Shall see what the numbers for the rest of the country but the number for Wales today. 50ish more cases than last week and 3 less deaths. And it won't have anything to do with the circuit breaker. Here is the Scottish and the Irish Cases down, deaths up. Which isn't unexpected. And way too soon to predict anything but it's certainly what you'd expect after the Whitty/Vallance scare chart and then the measures those 3 nations had put in place before tiers/circuit breakers and what not. The 11 triage keeps falling too.
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Post by musik on Oct 27, 2020 15:40:57 GMT
Very strange thing happened during the night to today.
I got a visit from an Express Courier Mailman at 03.15!!!
I had watched an episode of A Touch of Frost (crime) on TV and ate some candy. Sweets always gets me wide awake so I wasn't even tired.
He just visited me in the middle of the night, not any of the other 12 households. At first he tried the mailbox, but it got stuck badly, so a soft knock on the door.
Why in this thread?? 🤨
IT WAS A QUESTIONAIRE ABOUT HOW I HAD BEEN TREATED DURING THE CORONA PANDEMIC WITHIN THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR, ESPECIALLY MY LAST VISIT TO A HEALTH CARE CLINIC.
BIG NATIONAL STUDY.
Tegnell is full of crap. He said it has continued smoothly. It isn't true.
Corona cases, probably yes. But that's about it. Nothing else.
Last week I lost a dear friend in cancer. I will find out more and return.
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Post by Gods on Oct 27, 2020 15:48:25 GMT
Is that also true in Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Germany or just the UK? As I understand it in the first wave: 1 Italy were unlucky in that they were hit before anyone else in Europe. There health service nearly collapsed before they knew what was happening and they had to go for a strong lock down out of necessity, 2 Spain, France and Belgium didn't react quick enough and they ended up in the same position as Italy and had to lock down. The lock down in France was far more draconian and heavy handed than anything we've seen in the UK. 3 Germany, Finland and Norway took what was happening in Italy seriously, locked down early and got through the first wave far better as a result. 4 The UK dithered, toyed with herd immunity and reacted far too late despite having the advantage of seeing what was happening in Italy, Spain, France and Belgium. As a result we ended up with the most deaths and one of the longest lock downs in Europe. 5 Sweden went for herd immunity (although they've since denied this) but asked their people to voluntarily do what amounted to a light lock down which for the most part the Swedes did. They ended up doing far worse than their near neighbours who did lock down but not that badly due to the high level of voluntary compliance. This time round the UK government seems to have learned it's lesson from the first wave and want to take action to preempt the second wave taking off - whether they are doing enough is a matter of debate. The problem this time round isn't the government dithering, it's the ground swell of opinion against the measures designed to prevent a second lock down with some people suggesting non-compliance and public protests as the way forward - which will only make a full lock down even more likely. I think Andy is right - if people in the UK got on with doing the simple things we'll end up being more like Sweden but hopefully with a better record. As it is I think we'll end up being more like France with a worse record. You can probably put our woeful performance in the first wave down to the stupidity of government but if we do badly in the second wave it will be in part at least due to the stupidity of the governed. For once I'd take some advice from our American cousins on the way forward: Yep, that's about the measure of it.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 16:10:57 GMT
Deaths😮
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 27, 2020 16:31:32 GMT
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Post by Davef on Oct 27, 2020 16:40:14 GMT
Where's your mask? You twat.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 27, 2020 16:45:02 GMT
Good news on the infection numbers, not as high as I'd feared but positive test rate is still high so we don't know how many we're missing. Still, keep this up until the end of the week and I'll believe we've slowed down how quickly it's spreading. I've been following Dr. Annan's model and it's looked pretty solid. Numbers so far seem in line with his October 14th projection.
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Post by starkiller on Oct 27, 2020 16:48:48 GMT
I don’t think the government have covered themselves in glory and have not been ruthless enough because they’re scared of upsetting people. But one of the biggest issues is the inhability of people to do the basics. Is it that much of a sacrifice to - Wear a mask when you go shopping or when on public transport (unless you have a health condition) - Keep 2m apart when you can - Not go on protests - keep in your bubble Some People make out like they’re being asked to do far worse. If everybody had kept to the above we wouldn’t be where we are now but there’s always going to be that minority who won’t toe the line hence why everyone’s saying we may as well not bother because it isn’t working. It’s doing the small things that stop us having to pay the price long term. That would be common sense though and there isn't much of that about. You could add downloading the NHS app to that too even if you don't really want to. I don't trust this government one bit and didn't want to but I still downloaded the damn thing. Yes, we need more common sense of walking two metres into a place with a useless mask on before sitting down. That'll teach the pesky, personified virus. I'll congratulate myself on doing my bit as I tuck into my food, and complain about those selfish idiots who worry about their income, health and feeding their family.
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 27, 2020 17:00:40 GMT
...They adjusted the period because it was clearly ridiculous that people who had recovered from Covid but then went on to die of something else entirely were being included in the Covid figures. An issue that was actually pointed out to them by Carl Heneghan, somebody who has been very critical of the government. Iirc 3 of the 6 patients my gf lost on one ward had been on ventilators for at least a month and two on another ward had been ventilated for two months. It's also ridiculous that they aren't counted as covid deaths using the UK's approach. You'll get ridiculous cases with any cutoff, but I think the 28-day approach seems to balance things reasonably well overall from what little I've read. As I've asked before, if the virus is as prevalent as it was first time around, then why aren't they telling people who had to shield first time around to shield now? And I don't buy the fatigue answer any longer, this has been going on since the beginning of September but there still isn't an instruction for vulnerable people to shield, why is that? It's a perfectly reasonable question to ask. Part of it makes more sense from how we had way worse fog of war back then. Now we know 1) it seems to mostly be droplets and can be controlled pretty well by masks + distancing, 2) testing means we know better where it is, and infected can isolate themselves, and 3) the fatality rate is probably around 1% or a bit less. Back in March if we'd been unlucky it could have been 1) spread by aerosol, 2) super infectious way before symptoms and 3) even more deadly. If those things were true now I bet we'd be doing shielding again. It just seems to me, to simply say "just lock it all down" is an incredibly simple/lazy solution, even if it is a solution at all, at the end of the day, it might indeed be the only way but please, show me the data first. I think "lockdown" clearly is a solution that works for controlling covid, but I agree with the rest of that mate.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 17:07:52 GMT
ONS saying deaths have risen for the 6th week in a row and a 53% increase from the 8th to 16th Oct.A lot of flu about🤔
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 27, 2020 17:22:13 GMT
ONS saying deaths have risen for the 6th week in a row and a 53% increase from the 8th to 16th Oct.A lot of flu about🤔 Do we know what the figures for this time last year actually were?
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 27, 2020 17:28:33 GMT
That would be common sense though and there isn't much of that about. You could add downloading the NHS app to that too even if you don't really want to. I don't trust this government one bit and didn't want to but I still downloaded the damn thing. Yes, we need more common sense of walking two metres into a place with a useless mask on before sitting down. That'll teach the pesky, personified virus. I'll congratulate myself on doing my bit as I tuck into my food, and complain about those selfish idiots who worry about their income, health and feeding their family. That really provides a perfect vision of your alternative universe. God bless us all and Merry Xmas Mr Scrooge.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 27, 2020 17:29:03 GMT
...They adjusted the period because it was clearly ridiculous that people who had recovered from Covid but then went on to die of something else entirely were being included in the Covid figures. An issue that was actually pointed out to them by Carl Heneghan, somebody who has been very critical of the government. Iirc 3 of the 6 patients my gf lost on one ward had been on ventilators for at least a month and two on another ward had been ventilated for two months. It's also ridiculous that they aren't counted as covid deaths using the UK's approach. You'll get ridiculous cases with any cutoff, but I think the 28-day approach seems to balance things reasonably well overall from what little I've read. As I've asked before, if the virus is as prevalent as it was first time around, then why aren't they telling people who had to shield first time around to shield now? And I don't buy the fatigue answer any longer, this has been going on since the beginning of September but there still isn't an instruction for vulnerable people to shield, why is that? It's a perfectly reasonable question to ask. Part of it makes more sense from how we had way worse fog of war back then. Now we know 1) it seems to mostly be droplets and can be controlled pretty well by masks + distancing, 2) testing means we know better where it is, and infected can isolate themselves, and 3) the fatality rate is probably around 1% or a bit less. Back in March if we'd been unlucky it could have been 1) spread by aerosol, 2) super infectious way before symptoms and 3) even more deadly. If those things were true now I bet we'd be doing shielding again. It just seems to me, to simply say "just lock it all down" is an incredibly simple/lazy solution, even if it is a solution at all, at the end of the day, it might indeed be the only way but please, show me the data first. I think "lockdown" clearly is a solution that works for controlling covid, but I agree with the rest of that mate. Yes for a long time I was following the 60 day cut off (for the reasons you say) but as time has gone on, the two figures are now extremely close. And the lockdown 'solution' was a discussion about closing down the whole country entirely and without seeing the data to support it, I'm not convinced the closing down pubs in Cornwall because the figures are high in Oldham is particularly fair to businesses in those such areas.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 17:33:46 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Oct 27, 2020 17:42:43 GMT
... And the lockdown 'solution' was a discussion about closing down the whole country entirely and without seeing the data to support it, I'm not convinced the closing down pubs in Cornwall because the figures are high in Oldham is particularly fair to businesses in those such areas. Oh I agree with you mate. I think it'd work in that it'd reduce covid but the side effects would be awful. My ideal is that we've used the time since March to build the intel network to target places very specifically. Seems we're only part way there unfortunately.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 27, 2020 17:43:10 GMT
That would be common sense though and there isn't much of that about. You could add downloading the NHS app to that too even if you don't really want to. I don't trust this government one bit and didn't want to but I still downloaded the damn thing. Yes, we need more common sense of walking two metres into a place with a useless mask on before sitting down. That'll teach the pesky, personified virus. I'll congratulate myself on doing my bit as I tuck into my food, and complain about those selfish idiots who worry about their income, health and feeding their family. Even if you had 100% proof that masks worked you wouldn't believe it. Why trust the professionals when you can trust some nobody on twitter.
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Post by starkiller on Oct 27, 2020 17:45:25 GMT
Yes, we need more common sense of walking two metres into a place with a useless mask on before sitting down. That'll teach the pesky, personified virus. I'll congratulate myself on doing my bit as I tuck into my food, and complain about those selfish idiots who worry about their income, health and feeding their family. That really provides a perfect vision of your alternative universe. God bless us all and Merry Xmas Mr Scrooge. It's not an alternative universe, it's the one we're living in. Merry Covidmas.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 27, 2020 17:47:10 GMT
You sarcastically said there was a lot of flu about and I was just thinking, in order to understand what the current figures actually mean and for them to have some context, wouldn't it be useful to know how many people were in hospital with respiratory illnesses this time last year and probably several years before also?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 17:51:07 GMT
You sarcastically said there was a lot of flu about and I was just thinking, in order to understand what the current figures actually mean and for them to have some context, wouldn't it be useful to know how many people were in hospital with respiratory illnesses this time last year and probably several years before also? Yes and if someone can provide those figures I’ll compare them.As for the sarcasm yes it probably was but for me it’s justified reading some of the shit on this thread of late(all about opinions)
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 27, 2020 17:51:59 GMT
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