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Post by Seymour Beaver on Sept 25, 2020 11:53:24 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 Strikes me there's a lot of arrogance and vanity and ribalry in the scientific and academic world where looking to prove someone wrong is sometimes more important than advancement for the common good.
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Post by andystokey on Sept 25, 2020 12:22:00 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 Strikes me there's a lot of arrogance and vanity and ribalry in the scientific and academic world where looking to prove someone wrong is sometimes more important than advancement for the common good. The problem is with the media frenzy to contact and ask "opinion" of an "expert". I was brought up on the assertion that the scientific method is the proper way to do science. That means publish formally, peer review and provide experimental evidence. Most of this stuff is unpublished, not peer reviewed and not statistically significant evidence. The media and YouTube wheel out too many opinions in their thirst for information. The method on the other hand is steady measured and consistent. It doesn't sit well with the modern fixation on 24h news in a pandemic.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Sept 25, 2020 12:31:29 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 This is the view of Professor Shane Crotty, this is the guy behind the study who identified cross reactive T-Cells in the first place. But he has been almost relegated to the sidelines by louder voices: The main issue is, there is a lot of wild extrapolation of his initial findings that have yet to be corroborated with actual studies, rather than theoretical assertions. Nothing wrong with making hypotheses provided you make it clear that’s what it is and then provide actual evidence to back the assertion. Twitter and Youtube are not the best mediums to get this point across. The former because it’s difficult to explain and lay out nuances. The latter because a coherent video can be very convincing but takes place without any scrutiny and therefore can fall down when examined. It’s very tough for the layman I imagine, it’s tough for me and though I’m not a virologist I have a head start over most. It’s why I’m a big advocate of science communication.
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Post by chad on Sept 25, 2020 12:33:37 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 Well put yourself in the PMs position. He has to listen to very conflicting views like these and then make decisions which affect 67million people
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Post by Northy on Sept 25, 2020 12:37:32 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 This is the view of Professor Shane Crotty, this is the guy behind the study who identified cross reactive T-Cells in the first place. But he has been almost relegated to the sidelines by louder voices: The main issue is, there is a lot of wild extrapolation of his initial findings that have yet to be corroborated with actual studies, rather than theoretical assertions. Nothing wrong with making hypotheses provided you make it clear that’s what it is and then provide actual evidence to back the assertion. Twitter and Youtube are not the best mediums to get this point across. The former because it’s difficult to explain and lay out nuances. The latter because a coherent video can be very convincing but takes place without any scrutiny and therefore can fall down when examined. It’s very tough for the layman I imagine, it’s tough for me and though I’m not a virologist I have a head start over most. It’s why I’m a big advocate of science communication. some fooker tell 'you know who' on here please, I've tried but he doesn't listen
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Sept 25, 2020 12:39:37 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 Strikes me there's a lot of arrogance and vanity and ribalry in the scientific and academic world where looking to prove someone wrong is sometimes more important than advancement for the common good. You are right - individual scientists are as bad as any one else in terms of jockeying for position in their profession. The deciding factor though is the experimental evidence - at the end of the day it isn't he/she who shouts loudest it is which theory is best supported by the evidence. The T cell immunity and lower threshold herd immunity theory may well be right but it is going to be the infection and death numbers coming out of the second wave that will decide that. In the meantime the government is faced with two opposing theories. Choose to believe the T cell immunity theory and if we just crack on and the theory is incorrect thousands die. Choose to go with the SAGE scientists advice, impose restriction and if that theory is incorrect the economy takes a hit and people get pissed off. The government have chosen to be cautious and not put lives at risk.
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Post by andystokey on Sept 25, 2020 12:41:09 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 This is the view of Professor Shane Crotty, this is the guy behind the study who identified cross reactive T-Cells in the first place. But he has been almost relegated to the sidelines by louder voices: The main issue is, there is a lot of wild extrapolation of his initial findings that have yet to be corroborated with actual studies, rather than theoretical assertions. Nothing wrong with making hypotheses provided you make it clear that’s what it is and then provide actual evidence to back the assertion. Twitter and Youtube are not the best mediums to get this point across. The former because it’s difficult to explain and lay out nuances. The latter because a coherent video can be very convincing but takes place without any scrutiny and therefore can fall down when examined. It’s very tough for the layman I imagine, it’s tough for me and though I’m not a virologist I have a head start over most. It’s why I’m a big advocate of science communication. I think it's fair to say that most lay people would never ordinarily be exposed to the normal science debate around subjects. The average person would struggle to have the critical thought process required for formal peer review. The fact that this is all playing out in plain sight undermines truly published peer reviewed findings. I have some real problems however with Scott Atlas agenda here as advisor to Trump on policy. I also dont believe he would have sent a "cease and desist" to Stanford fellows in normal circumstances. It would be a reasonable guess the White House has underwritten his legal letter. It's not science as I know it and should be properly moderated for the wider public.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 25, 2020 13:00:07 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 25, 2020 13:03:39 GMT
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Sept 25, 2020 13:04:50 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 Strikes me there's a lot of arrogance and vanity and ribalry in the scientific and academic world where looking to prove someone wrong is sometimes more important than advancement for the common good. There are of course elements of it, scientists are human after all. Many senior scientists won't have heard the word "no" for many years and struggle to disconnect what may be a perfectly legitimate questioning of a finding from a personal attack. But as this happens normally behind closed doors and with peer review and plays out across months generally, the right answer is reached and we move on. The trouble is during the pandemic science has been instantly politicised and used by whichever party to propagate a position. The abuse of pre-print servers has been horrific throughout the last 6 months and very often people will only see version 1.0 as opposed to version 1.8 for instance. Crotty himself for instance has had to reiterate on several occasions he doesn't believe Herd Immunity will be altered too much by pre-existing T-cells, but because he published the paper demonstrating their cross reactivity he has been associated with the theory on many occasions. Prof Francois Balloux who has criticised lockdowns has been attacked for saying the virus is still serious for a lot of people by some of his followers. It's the social media effect, you are placed in a camp and that's it. Break from that camp and you've "sold out" or are a "shill".
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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 25, 2020 14:08:14 GMT
Strikes me there's a lot of arrogance and vanity and ribalry in the scientific and academic world where looking to prove someone wrong is sometimes more important than advancement for the common good. There are of course elements of it, scientists are human after all. Many senior scientists won't have heard the word "no" for many years and struggle to disconnect what may be a perfectly legitimate questioning of a finding from a personal attack. But as this happens normally behind closed doors and with peer review and plays out across months generally, the right answer is reached and we move on. The trouble is during the pandemic science has been instantly politicised and used by whichever party to propagate a position. The abuse of pre-print servers has been horrific throughout the last 6 months and very often people will only see version 1.0 as opposed to version 1.8 for instance. Crotty himself for instance has had to reiterate on several occasions he doesn't believe Herd Immunity will be altered too much by pre-existing T-cells, but because he published the paper demonstrating their cross reactivity he has been associated with the theory on many occasions. Prof Francois Balloux who has criticised lockdowns has been attacked for saying the virus is still serious for a lot of people by some of his followers. It's the social media effect, you are placed in a camp and that's it. Break from that camp and you've "sold out" or are a "shill". Indeed ... I've noticed that Crotty has been very pro mask wearing throughout, yet a lot of the camp that are promoting the T-Cell immunity theory, off the back of his work, are vehemently anti-mask.
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Post by Gods on Sept 25, 2020 14:47:54 GMT
We seem to be going smoothly through the gears again. I'm really struggling to see 10pm closing, rule of 6 and some half arsed App that no one will use reversing this trend but I'd rather be eaten alive by cannibals than experience another full lock down. What to do?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 25, 2020 15:13:43 GMT
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Post by Davef on Sept 25, 2020 15:27:34 GMT
I'm not buying those figures at all. There is absolutely no way that London and the South East/West have a similar figure to the North West/East and Yorkshire.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 25, 2020 15:28:50 GMT
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Post by davejohnno1 on Sept 25, 2020 15:32:26 GMT
You see, this is why I find it so difficult as layman to put my faith in one scientist over another. Here is Scott Atlas giving a pretty convincing argument on why Vallance is completely wrong when he says the vast majority of us don't have any immunity whatsoever. He's advocating that T-Cell immunity is far more prevalent in society than people like Vallance want to admit. It's a theory that's advocated by other top scientists like Beda Stalder and it is one that is gaining a lot of traction at the moment. HOWEVER, you then, at the same time, see this ... www.cnbc.com/2020/09/24/stanford-researchers-say-they-wont-be-silenced-after-criticizing-trumps-coronavirus-advisor-dr-scott-atlas.htmlIt really is incredibly hard to know what to believe. 😟 I don't think there is any right or wrong right now. Most scientists (and the rest of us) are purely speculating on outcomes based on the information we have available which isn't definitive so its all basically guess work to a degree. Or speculating on outcomes that offer them the best opportunity to make some serious money?
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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 25, 2020 15:37:07 GMT
New English hospital admissions 314, the first time it's been over 300 since June.
The 7 day rolling average throughout August was flat, hovering around 50, the current 7 day rolling average is 243.
The number of patients on ventilators is 227, the last time it was that high, was also in June.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 25, 2020 15:42:47 GMT
I'm not buying those figures at all. There is absolutely no way that London and the South East/West have a similar figure to the North West/East and Yorkshire.
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Post by Davef on Sept 25, 2020 16:00:36 GMT
I'm not buying those figures at all. There is absolutely no way that London and the South East/West have a similar figure to the North West/East and Yorkshire. New Positive Tests Per 100,000: South East - 3.55 London - 6.92 North West - 25.44 East - 4.21 West Midlands - 10.25 South West - 3.11 Yorkshire - 14.69 East Midlands - 6.94 North East - 12.21 Ludicrous decision.
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Post by starkiller on Sept 25, 2020 16:24:25 GMT
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 25, 2020 16:55:44 GMT
No food, services, health care, infrastructure operation, maintenance? Emergency plumbers / sparks / garages? What ever it takes to achieve it, I don't think you can stop emergency services and everyone needs access to food and healthcare. You need fire brigade, hospitals, police, all the things they require like power, gas, fuel, spare parts, so power stations, electricity distribution, gas distribution, emergency repairs, security services, break down services, then there are all the things they require like food, water, transport to work, etc. Then there industrial processes that cannot be shutdown easily without massive restart costs like refineries, power stations (Oh! We keep them going.), steelworks processes like blast furnaces. In the end all you can do without is education, and entertainment, so no TV, Internet, phones (Oh! we need them.), pubs, clothes shops, cafes. Do we need the postal services?
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 25, 2020 17:05:11 GMT
I don't know about English, but I remember a German teacher at Wolstanton Grammar School called "killer" and you didn't want to be on the front row in his classes!
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Sept 25, 2020 17:09:19 GMT
What ever it takes to achieve it, I don't think you can stop emergency services and everyone needs access to food and healthcare. You need fire brigade, hospitals, police, all the things they require like power, gas, fuel, spare parts, so power stations, electricity distribution, gas distribution, emergency repairs, security services, break down services, then there are all the things they require like food, water, transport to work, etc. Then there industrial processes that cannot be shutdown easily without massive restart costs like refineries, power stations (Oh! We keep them going.), steelworks processes like blast furnaces. In the end all you can do without is education, and entertainment, so no TV, Internet, phones (Oh! we need them.), pubs, clothes shops, cafes. Do we need the postal services? People can be ridiculous to make the point but of course you don't shut down essential services. What you do have is rigorous testing of people still in circulation and zero tolerance isolation. We had a chance to go for zero covid in the summer when community circulation was low anyway and many people were nervous that we were coming out of lockdown too soon - but that boat has sailed now. Just hope we don't come to regret it.
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Post by DrGonzo on Sept 25, 2020 17:25:05 GMT
I'm not buying those figures at all. There is absolutely no way that London and the South East/West have a similar figure to the North West/East and Yorkshire. Well publicised that less tests are available to the Southern regions due to them being redirected to the North West hotspots - London published figures likely massively under reported.
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Post by Davef on Sept 25, 2020 17:31:57 GMT
I'm not buying those figures at all. There is absolutely no way that London and the South East/West have a similar figure to the North West/East and Yorkshire. Well publicised that less tests are available to the Southern regions due to them being redirected to the North West hotspots - London published figures likely massively under reported. Well when they've got the testing sorted and they've got definitive data to back up their measures then they can bring in restrictions. Until then, they can f**k right off.
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Post by DrGonzo on Sept 25, 2020 17:34:59 GMT
Well publicised that less tests are available to the Southern regions due to them being redirected to the North West hotspots - London published figures likely massively under reported. Well when they've got the testing sorted and they've got definitive data to back up their measures then they can bring in restrictions. Until then, they can f**k right off. It’s a complete mess really, can’t make any effective decisions on any of it. Best they can do now I think is to try and give individual regions some kind of control over what they do.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 25, 2020 18:06:21 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Sept 25, 2020 19:17:25 GMT
Holy crap....
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Post by chad on Sept 25, 2020 19:38:57 GMT
Not seen this on the news. Not seen it in the papers. Not seen it on TV. Which reporter was it Maybe John O Connel. Whoever the fuck he is just made it up ?
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Post by starkiller on Sept 25, 2020 19:42:48 GMT
307 people under 60 have died 'with' Covid1984 who didn't have other underlying health issues in the UK. And they probably included things like road accidents, using the crazy 'having tested positive' criteria. With a test that is bogus. How many lives under 60 have been destroyed by the fucking madness reaction? No-one would even know about this cold if it wasn't for zombie news coverage. The media, and twats like Morgan, are fully complicit in this crime against humanity.
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