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Post by Davef on Jul 9, 2020 7:39:25 GMT
So crudely if you accept ONS stats that 20% of folks have had Covid in London and 8% in the rest of the UK then in the Profs world London is a done deal and just 12% of us left who may catch it in the rest of the UK. Not sure I'm buying this. I suspect his wider point that the populations of some countries may be more vulnerable than others for complex reasons, UK v Germany for example is valid though. But for his 80% number the good prof has got an extra zero stuck in his famous computer! Someone should tell him really. Michael Levitt (and others) who is mentioned in that article has said from very early in the pandemic that the herd immunity threshold may actually be between 20 and 30%. Levitt has received a lot of criticism, but he actually stated in early May that if Sweden (no lockdown) stayed between 5,000 and 6,000 deaths then they will have reached herd immunity. 5482 people have died in Sweden.
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Post by 828492 on Jul 9, 2020 7:39:51 GMT
It was widely reported the failed track and trace system cost £11.8 million. How do they get to £10 billion? A billion is 1000 (one thousand) x (times) a million. I accept it was all a huge waste of money and I am no fan of this tawdry government but £10 billion, really? For a independent group they seem very anti government For a government this lot look very untrustworthy
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 9, 2020 7:43:14 GMT
For a independent group they seem very anti government For a government this lot look very untrustworthy So are they independently impartial Or do they have an agenda? I would suggest the latter
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Post by Veritas on Jul 9, 2020 8:07:14 GMT
For a government this lot look very untrustworthy So are they independently impartial Or do they have an agenda? I would suggest the latter I think they definitely have an agenda, to present unspun data and analysis
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 9, 2020 8:11:34 GMT
So are they independently impartial Or do they have an agenda? I would suggest the latter I think they definitely have an agenda, to present unspun data and analysis With there own slant
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Post by Davef on Jul 9, 2020 8:33:18 GMT
I think Independent Sage lost a lot of credibility yesterday when they issued their "Zero Covid" statement. Many scientists believe that it could be an endemic virus that we have to learn to live with, and, like the flu, a vaccine won't completely eradicate it.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 9, 2020 11:26:30 GMT
Can anyone explain the diminishing correlation between cases and deaths in the USA... At the start of this epidemic deaths seemed to lag infections by 2 or 3 weeks, but in the past month 5/6 weeks they've diverted - cases rising rapidly, deaths steadily falling. The early pandemic was defined by only large testing of symptomatic patients, largely in hospital scenarios and among those with a much higher risk of dying. The numbers need disaggregating really for a lot of reasons. But graphs like that are effectively mixing two phases of the pandemic for that reason. As it’s progressed, and testing has become more common across wider demographics including younger people going back into work as the US has opened up Tests have also increased in volume we will “see” more cases, that may not correspond to the a proportional increase in deaths as reflected earlier in the pandemic when those being tested were already on oxygen therapy or ventilators. The median age of positive tests in Florida for instance in April was 65, this month it’s been less than half that. So I would suggest who is testing positive is arguably the main driver behind this phenomenon at present. I’ve not seen any serious claims that the virus has changed to drive this, i.e it hasn’t yet been subject to a loss of lethality mutation a la SARS1. There are more infectious strains going round according to the sequencing, but these have not been concomitant with more severe disease once infected. Age and comorbidities are still the major risk factors. The risk is the wider spread then diffuses to more elderly populations and you get your increases in hospitalisations and deaths, the former of those is now steadily going up too. I guess we’ll see what effect the validation of Dexamethasone has on those needing it most. Thanks. That makes sense. It seems to me we need to be careful, therefore, about how we react to increases in cases and try to better understand what they mean. In addition, knowing what we now know, we need more discussion on how to best mitigate the risk this disease poses to the most vulnerable. The lockdown we have implemented seems to me to be too crude. More targeted action, particularly towards better protecting people most at risk, seems the only sustainable way forward.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Jul 9, 2020 11:43:51 GMT
The early pandemic was defined by only large testing of symptomatic patients, largely in hospital scenarios and among those with a much higher risk of dying. The numbers need disaggregating really for a lot of reasons. But graphs like that are effectively mixing two phases of the pandemic for that reason. As it’s progressed, and testing has become more common across wider demographics including younger people going back into work as the US has opened up Tests have also increased in volume we will “see” more cases, that may not correspond to the a proportional increase in deaths as reflected earlier in the pandemic when those being tested were already on oxygen therapy or ventilators. The median age of positive tests in Florida for instance in April was 65, this month it’s been less than half that. So I would suggest who is testing positive is arguably the main driver behind this phenomenon at present. I’ve not seen any serious claims that the virus has changed to drive this, i.e it hasn’t yet been subject to a loss of lethality mutation a la SARS1. There are more infectious strains going round according to the sequencing, but these have not been concomitant with more severe disease once infected. Age and comorbidities are still the major risk factors. The risk is the wider spread then diffuses to more elderly populations and you get your increases in hospitalisations and deaths, the former of those is now steadily going up too. I guess we’ll see what effect the validation of Dexamethasone has on those needing it most. Thanks. That makes sense. It seems to me we need to be careful, therefore, about how we react to increases in cases and try to better understand what they mean. In addition, knowing what we now know, we need more discussion on how to best mitigate the risk this disease poses to the most vulnerable. The lockdown we have implemented seems to me to be too crude. More targeted action, particularly towards better protecting people most at risk, seems the only sustainable way forward. Absolutely, I understand why these figures get collated and they do have a utility. But from a disease management perspective we do need deeper analysis at who is testing positive and as you say, what that means moving forward in terms of reopening now that we have more info on the virus itself, risk factors and now management options for those most at risk.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 9, 2020 12:00:32 GMT
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teflondel
Youth Player
Plumbing services
Posts: 318
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Post by teflondel on Jul 9, 2020 12:33:32 GMT
You getting worse. Your very own left wing newspaper for once prints a positive story and you go trawling Twatter for someone to post negatively. Get a fucking grip. Yes we have shockingly bad death rates. Yes the government have made mistakes But dwelling on them won’t change them. Try and look for some positive aspects and you will have a far happier life.
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Post by Davef on Jul 9, 2020 12:48:48 GMT
Those tweets are wrong on so many levels. For starters neither the USA nor Brazil have "soaring" death rates, and if anyone thinks daily death rates during a global pandemic of a novel virus reducing from over 1000 to the very low hundreds is something to moan about needs to have a good look at themselves. I appreciate that he's probably a left wing commentator seeking to stick the boot into a Tory government, but for crying out loud.
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Post by Northy on Jul 9, 2020 12:53:36 GMT
Why have they missed Belgium off that list, is it because they have the worst death rate per population ? We don't have soaring death rates, we have falling, Mexico is the country that is soaring at the moment
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Post by Northy on Jul 9, 2020 13:00:10 GMT
Seriously, what are you trying to achieve here? At the time you were bashing the Government for not getting PPE in quickly enough, now you're having a go about them not tendering, which would have delayed getting PPE in. As I said at the time, the civil service were working well outside their comfort zone to get this done, they had 10000 enquiries, it wasn't going to be perfect was it? Cnuts that nit pick after the unprecedented event that was going on are just cnuts IMO
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 9, 2020 13:00:23 GMT
Apologies - I'm not trying to pick a fight, just trying to understand where you are coming from on this because to be honest it sounds bonkers. I can't see how you can say take it or leave it when your main claim appears to be the whole world is subject to a massive conspiracy organised by some mega elite and that this view is supported by a small clique of reporters who have seen the truth and are asking that others use their critical faculties to tune into what is really going on. If true - as you appear to claim - that's pretty important news and high time I made myself a tin foil hat. All I'm saying is why can't you and I use our critical faculties to question the accuracy of these reports of a conspiracy theory - either the whole world is subject to a massive conspiracy or a small number of nutters are disseminating made up bullshit. Which of the two is the easiest to pull off and therefore the most likely? I'm going for bullshitting nut jobs. But as you say it's a personal choice and more than happy to amicably disagree. In effect, all I've said is that the threat of this virus has been overstated, the test is uncertain as to revealing actual infection, the care home system seems to have inflated the figures for deaths that last year wouldn't have been classed as c19, especially when many deaths are been diagnosed on vague symptoms alone. And, also, by their very nature, care homes contain those that are towards the end of their lives. In light of this, I don't think lockdowns are warranted or justified when world deaths are less than a bad flu year, considering the catastrophic long-term effect on lives and livelihoods, health and poverty. Also , I don't wish to sacrifice the very basic of liberties on the altar of Covid19, with many rules and inconsistencies suggesting more of an aspect of control rather than health. It's others that have demanded a 'grand theory of everything' conspiracy. I understand the desire for this but ultimately it doesn't change some of the things I've just listed. You have consistently tried to imply that lockdown wasn't justified because the whole Covid thing is a vast conspiracy - you have only started to claim that your arguement is only about a lockdown being unnecessary in your response to my claim that your global conspiracy theory is fundamentally irrational as it has no basis in either fact or reason because you can't come up with an argument that makes any sense. You are deflecting. Also deaths as a result of Covid far outstrip deaths due to seasonal flu - the figures on the number of excess deaths this year against a rolling five year average show this quite clearly. There is a very grim arguement about how many deaths a government is prepared to live with in order to maintain the economy and every government is making this calculation. However that's quite different to let's just crack on it isn't that bad - the three leaders who took that approach are Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson and look how that's turned out. Or are numbers being manipulated by unseen forces? If so your conspirators would appear to be a bunch of fabulously rich lefties - unless of course it's a double bluff...the plot thickens...
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jul 9, 2020 13:15:12 GMT
Those tweets are wrong on so many levels. For starters neither the USA nor Brazil have "soaring" death rates, and if anyone thinks daily death rates during a global pandemic of a novel virus reducing from over 1000 to the very low hundreds is something to moan about needs to have a good look at themselves. I appreciate that he's probably a left wing commentator seeking to stick the boot into a Tory government, but for crying out loud. Whilst I agree that we're in a much, much better situation than we were, is the fact that the numbers here seem to be reducing far more slowly than our neighbours, a reason for concern?
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 9, 2020 13:18:21 GMT
Seriously, what are you trying to achieve here? At the time you were bashing the Government for not getting PPE in quickly enough, now you're having a go about them not tendering, which would have delayed getting PPE in. As I said at the time, the civil service were working well outside their comfort zone to get this done, they had 10000 enquiries, it wasn't going to be perfect was it? Cnuts that nit pick after the unprecedented event that was going on are just cnuts IMO Chill it's easy for some to constantly repost angry non entities Without trying to give there own opinions and what they would do differently Its one of the downfalls of modern social media The government has got somethings wrong But they have got far more right than some are prepared to give credit for And there are some who wouldn't give them any credit at all whatever they did
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 9, 2020 13:53:59 GMT
Seriously, what are you trying to achieve here? At the time you were bashing the Government for not getting PPE in quickly enough, now you're having a go about them not tendering, which would have delayed getting PPE in. As I said at the time, the civil service were working well outside their comfort zone to get this done, they had 10000 enquiries, it wasn't going to be perfect was it? Cnuts that nit pick after the unprecedented event that was going on are just cnuts IMO Chill it's easy for some to constantly repost angry non entities Without trying to give there own opinions and what they would do differently Its one of the downfalls of modern social media The government has got somethings wrong But they have got far more right than some are prepared to give credit for And there are some who wouldn't give them any credit at all whatever they did Isn't that just the nature of British plitics though? - much in the same way that many on here found Corbyns policies abhorrent but are now cheering them on because thay are being delivered by Sunak. For tribalists there can never be connsensus.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 9, 2020 14:12:20 GMT
In effect, all I've said is that the threat of this virus has been overstated, the test is uncertain as to revealing actual infection, the care home system seems to have inflated the figures for deaths that last year wouldn't have been classed as c19, especially when many deaths are been diagnosed on vague symptoms alone. And, also, by their very nature, care homes contain those that are towards the end of their lives. In light of this, I don't think lockdowns are warranted or justified when world deaths are less than a bad flu year, considering the catastrophic long-term effect on lives and livelihoods, health and poverty. Also , I don't wish to sacrifice the very basic of liberties on the altar of Covid19, with many rules and inconsistencies suggesting more of an aspect of control rather than health. It's others that have demanded a 'grand theory of everything' conspiracy. I understand the desire for this but ultimately it doesn't change some of the things I've just listed. You have consistently tried to imply that lockdown wasn't justified because the whole Covid thing is a vast conspiracy - you have only started to claim that your arguement is only about a lockdown being unnecessary in your response to my claim that your global conspiracy theory is fundamentally irrational as it has no basis in either fact or reason because you can't come up with an argument that makes any sense. You are deflecting. Also deaths as a result of Covid far outstrip deaths due to seasonal flu - the figures on the number of excess deaths this year against a rolling five year average show this quite clearly. There is a very grim arguement about how many deaths a government is prepared to live with in order to maintain the economy and every government is making this calculation. However that's quite different to let's just crack on it isn't that bad - the three leaders who took that approach are Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson and look how that's turned out. Or are numbers being manipulated by unseen forces? If so your conspirators would appear to be a bunch of fabulously rich lefties - unless of course it's a double bluff...the plot thickens... I got the Office of National Statistics death totals on June 19th and came up with about 58,000 excess deaths. I compared the 5 weeks before covid with the weeks after; similar answer to using the 5 year average. So yeah, it's probably around 60,000 and we made it a lot smaller by locking down. Even in care homes, a lot of extra deaths happened and covid wasn't mentioned for them. Parts of Italy had it far worse and they locked down too. So with lockdown it's already killed more than any recent flu season, and without slowing it down it looks like hundreds of thousands more would probably have died.
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Post by Northy on Jul 9, 2020 14:20:32 GMT
Those tweets are wrong on so many levels. For starters neither the USA nor Brazil have "soaring" death rates, and if anyone thinks daily death rates during a global pandemic of a novel virus reducing from over 1000 to the very low hundreds is something to moan about needs to have a good look at themselves. I appreciate that he's probably a left wing commentator seeking to stick the boot into a Tory government, but for crying out loud. Whilst I agree that we're in a much, much better situation than we were, is the fact that the numbers here seem to be reducing far more slowly than our neighbours, a reason for concern? the virus affects mostly people who have underlying conditions with obesity being one of them, obesity causes many underlying issues like diabetes, heart problems, poor blood circulation lower immune efficiency etc. Which nation is the most unhealthy and obese in Europe - the UK
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jul 9, 2020 14:29:56 GMT
Whilst I agree that we're in a much, much better situation than we were, is the fact that the numbers here seem to be reducing far more slowly than our neighbours, a reason for concern? the virus affects mostly people who have underlying conditions with obesity being one of them, obesity causes many underlying issues like diabetes, heart problems, poor blood circulation lower immune efficiency etc. Which nation is the most unhealthy and obese in Europe - the UK Hmmm ... I suspect you're (hugely) oversimplifying things there. It wasn't too long ago that we were being told that Italy's death toll was far higher than ours because they had the most elderly people in Europe. And I've seen plenty of fat Germans in my time! Not saying that our obesity levels might not play some part in the difference in the figures but I'm sure it's far from being the main contributory factor.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 9, 2020 14:35:05 GMT
You getting worse. Your very own left wing newspaper for once prints a positive story and you go trawling Twatter for someone to post negatively. Get a fucking grip. Yes we have shockingly bad death rates. Yes the government have made mistakes But dwelling on them won’t change them. Try and look for some positive aspects and you will have a far happier life. Shocking and disgraceful handling of crisis we had 3 weeks advance knowledge of. So no, I won't get a grip.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 9, 2020 14:35:18 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 9, 2020 14:37:04 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 9, 2020 14:44:15 GMT
85 deaths 642 positive tests
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 9, 2020 14:53:33 GMT
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Post by Davef on Jul 9, 2020 15:10:56 GMT
Those tweets are wrong on so many levels. For starters neither the USA nor Brazil have "soaring" death rates, and if anyone thinks daily death rates during a global pandemic of a novel virus reducing from over 1000 to the very low hundreds is something to moan about needs to have a good look at themselves. I appreciate that he's probably a left wing commentator seeking to stick the boot into a Tory government, but for crying out loud. Whilst I agree that we're in a much, much better situation than we were, is the fact that the numbers here seem to be reducing far more slowly than our neighbours, a reason for concern? I'm not sure Paul, though I'm not sure I believe some of those figures either, particularly Spain. At the beginning of June, their health ministry announced no deaths but on the same day two regions, including Madrid announced 17 deaths between them. There's also been reports of care homes being abandoned over there as well.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jul 9, 2020 15:24:10 GMT
85 deaths 642 positive tests Hugely encouraging figures for a Thursday.
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Post by Davef on Jul 9, 2020 15:37:36 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 9, 2020 15:41:21 GMT
85 deaths 642 positive tests Hugely encouraging figures for a Thursday. Very encouraging Paul and all the figures are here
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Post by Northy on Jul 9, 2020 15:46:58 GMT
85 deaths 642 positive tests Hugely encouraging figures for a Thursday. Only 89 deaths last Thursday before jumping up on the Friday, lets hope it doesn't do that tomorrow.
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