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Post by wannabee on Oct 23, 2024 23:33:32 GMT
City of London chief ( Lord Mayor of the City of London, Michael Mainelli) says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobsMichael Mainelli said Dublin had gained most, attracting 10,000 positions, while cities such as Milan, Paris and Amsterdam had also benefited from jobs migrating from London after Britain voted to quit the EU trading bloc in 2016. Economic output in the heart of Britain's financial sector, including banks and wealth funds, has fallen by more than 15% since late 2019, just before the UK formally left the EU. Overall, financial services output in Britain has fallen by 1% since late 2019 - a stark contrast with France and Germany, where it has increased by 8%, and Ireland's 18% growth, national account data shows. British financial services exports have been overtaken by other business services, such as law or advertising. Britain's official budget forecaster said in March that its prediction Brexit would cause trade volumes to shrink by 15% was "broadly on track". hr.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/city-of-london-chief-says-brexit-disaster-cost-40000-finance-jobs/114285203 The state of the City of London's Financial Sector
Is there growth or decline since Brexit?
According to the City of London Factsheet issued February 2023 (Reference 1) : " City jobs are at a record high and have grown over 13% since pre-pandemic 2019 to 2022, with nearly 73,000 more jobs than in 2019." and "The City experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic. 29,000 jobs were added to the City between 2021 and 2022."
Reference 2 shows that there has been no reduction in the number of employees in the financial services sector in the UK from 2009 to 2021 TheCityUK issued a press release on 11 September 2024, based on data available as of 30 June 2024 regarding financial and related professional services stating "In the decade to 2022, the industry created 354,000 jobs across the UK, with employment growing at an annual average rate of 1.8%. More than half of these jobs were created outside London" (3) This suggests that London is not doing as well as other regions, notably the West Midlands and Northern Ireland that enjoyed the highest average industry employment growth rates of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, but neither does it suggest that employment in London's financial and related professional services is in any sort of distress, let alone crisis. Apart from the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, Leeds is the fastest growing city in the UK and, I quote, " Over the next ten years, the economy is forecast to grow by 21% with financial and business services set to generate over half of GVA growth over that period." (4) Banks
Banks are experiencing major change. The FT posted a headline last December " Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis " (5) This was a worldwide figure. According to a government report in September: " around 6,100 bank and building society branches have closed since January 2015 across the UK, or are due to close by the end of 2025" (6) This is not a UK or Brexit issue, it is worldwide: According to the FT, twenty of the world’s largest banks shed at least 61,905 jobs total in 2023. (7) According to Reuters, New York lost 23,300 financial services jobs in 2023. (8) The total number of individuals employed at banks across the EU member states dropped significantly during the period between 2008 and 2023, despite a slight increase in 2023. Overall, as of the end of 2023, there were approximately 1.77 million individuals working at banks across Europe, which 470,000 less than 2008. (9) At 13,000 jobs lost, Switzerland’s UBS led the downsizing in 2023 during its Credit Suisse takeover. This was followed by Wells Fargo (12,000 jobs lost), Citigroup (5,000), Morgan Stanley (4,800) and Bank of America (4,000). These reductions are driven by a number of factors across the financial world. The 2008 banking crisis, rationalisation, movement away from traditional banking to on-line, increased IT and other technology, and rationalisation following mergers and acquisitions. London Jobs Scene
There is another factor affecting London jobs scene which is many UK companies are moving head office jobs to other areas outside of London due to increasing costs of living and housing. (10) New York is experiencing a similar exit of jobs to other southern regions, including $1 trillion in assets. (11) Numerous large companies have moved jobs out of London and established offices in the North. Salford is now the base for a large part of operations for BBC, TalkTalk, ITV and M&S. (12) Barclays established a new campus in Tradeston in 2022. PwC has relocated to larger offices in Manchester. With the transfer of office jobs out of London for the North, there could be a slump in building or surplus of office space, but that is not the case. In fact more London office builds began in the summer of 2023 than at any comparable period in the past 18 years, (13) and there is a skyscraper building boom in London. (14) Impact of Brexit on FS Jobs in London
The Standard weighed in first in November 2015 with the headline "'Brexit' would lead to loss of 100,000 bank jobs, says City". (15) The Guardian engaged in "project fear" in April 2016 with the headline "Brexit could lead to loss of 100,000 financial services jobs". (16) Following the referendum many financial firms said they would be moving staff to Europe, but the actual peak reported in 2016 was 12,500 jobs. According to Ernst Young (17) this figure was revised down to 7,400 in December 2021, and down further to just over 7,000 by March 2022. Is that the final figure? I believe not because there has been movement in the opposite direction to London. Firstly a European Parliament report admits that the forecast of large numbers of jobs moving from London to the EU have been hopelessly wrong. (18) Thousands of financial services jobs have actually been created since Brexit and EU banks had relocated some of their operations to London to remain active in the UK market. In December 2023, Dutch company Bunq, the second-largest neo-bank in the EU announced its return to London. More than 1,400 EU-based financial firms have applied for permission to operate in Britain after Brexit. Over 1,000 of these plan to open their first UK office, according to research by financial regulatory consultancy Bovil. (19) It is quite clear Brexit has not been a "disaster" for London's financial services, but a readjustment of offices and jobs in both directions. Would the movement of Euro share trading moved out of London anyway?
Around 2010 a prominent French financier, whose name I cannot remember, left his employment with the EU to return to the French finance industry. He led a concerted campaign to move Euro share trading from London to the Euro zone. In 2011 the European Central Bank in Frankfurt tried to insist that all Euro trades were done inside the Eurozone. Financiers in Europe have tried for many years to wrest the lucrative Euro market from London on the grounds that London is not in the Euro zone. They failed until the UK left the EU, but it is quite likely that even if the UK had remained in the EU that they would have found a way to take this business from the UK market. However it appears that the EU has given up for the time being as the European Commission’s latest rule changes mean it may never be able to wrest control of the massive euro swap market from the UK (20) The Financial Services Scene in 2024, the 4th Year of Brexit.
The UK continues to increase its lead as Europe’s most attractive destination for financial services investment. (21) 2023 ended with significant financial services agreement with Switzerland. (22) Whilst the banking sector continues to decline, vacancies are increasing in other sectors despite an adverse impact due to the general election. (23) Two thirds of UK financial services leaders are more optimistic about the sector’s future growth and global standing under the new Labour government. (24) The industry is constantly redefining itself and has a huge potential with the focus on the worldwide market. London continues to be ranked second in the Global Financial Index for September this year and has in fact closed the rating gap with New York. But there is no room for complacency as other American and Far Eastern financial centres are closing up on London. (25) References1. www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/assets/Business/City-Stats-Factsheet-May-2024.pdf2. www.statista.com/statistics/298370/uk-financial-sector-total-financial-services-employment/ 3. www.thecityuk.com/news/new-research-shows-uk-financial-and-related-professional-services-are-key-drivers-of-jobs-and-growth-across-regions-and-nations/ 4. www.leeds.gov.uk/leeds-economy#:~:text=Leeds%20is%20the%20UK's%20fastest,a%20workforce%20of%201.37%20million 5. www.ft.com/content/cbc6e15d-3c63-49af-9f98-ef8f478431bd6. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9453/#:~:text=Cash%20was%20used%20forttps://www.bankingdive.com/news/big-banks-cut-62000-jobs-2023-ubs-wells-citi-jpmorgan-stanley-goldman-metro-bofa/703396/%20only,by%20the%20end%20of%202025 7. www.bankingdive.com/news/big-banks-cut-62000-jobs-2023-ubs-wells-citi-jpmorgan-stanley-goldman-metro-bofa/703396/8. www.reuters.com/business/finance/wall-street-banks-shed-jobs-ease-cost-pressures-2023-09-15/9. www.statista.com/statistics/940990/number-of-bank-staff-in-europe/#:~:text=Overall%2C%20as%20of%20the%20end,working%20at%20banks%20across%20Europe 10. www.cityam.com/uk-firms-move-more-head-office-roles-outside-london-amid-soaring-costs/ 11. www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/08/23/wall-street-is-going-south-and-taking-1-trillion-in-assets-with-it/ 12. salboy.com/2021/04/businesses-leaving-london/13. www.constructionnews.co.uk/buildings/london-office-building-rate-soars-after-pandemic-lull-21-11-2023/#:~:text=More%20London%20office%20builds%20began,to%20the%20end%20of%20September. 14. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/skyscrapers-skyline-city-of-london-99-bishopsgate-one-undershaft-b1147740.html 15. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-would-lead-to-loss-of-100-000-bank-jobs-says-city-a3124661.html16. www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/14/brexit-could-lead-to-loss-of-100000-financial-services-jobs-report-warns17. www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2022/03/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-movement-within-uk-financial-services-sector-stabilises-five-years-on-from-article-50-trigger 18. brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/eu-admits-post-brexit-london-city-jobs-loss-forecast-was-way-off-the-mark/ 19. www.business4beginners.co.uk/uk-remain-financial-capital-after-brexit/ 20. www.fnlondon.com/articles/brussels-diluted-proposals-hand-london-a-victory-over-clearing-20240219 21. www.ey.com/en_gl/newsroom/2024/05/uk-accelerates-its-lead-as-europe-s-most-attractive-destination-for-financial-services-investment#:~:text=The%20UK%20recorded%2085%20new,highest%20level%20in%20a%20decade 22. www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-berne-financial-services-agreement 23. vacancysoft.com/london-uk-finance-labour-market-trends-report-august-2024/ 24. kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2024/07/financial-services-leaders-see-brighter-future-for-sector-under-new-government.html25. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_IndexWith respect Mr Coke that's a lot of words without actually disputing what the City of London Mayor said that Brexit has been a disaster for the City. I wouldn't expect anything less as it would be rather presumptuous in the extreme if you did You are fond of saying "Record numbers/levels" which is obvious because it's cumulative, the opposite would be contraction, but it's the rate of increase which is questionable However Paris challenged London to become the leader in Equity Markets in Europe is irrelevant, the fact is Paris closed a $1.5Trn gap to now be at least equal to LSE. To be fair it was partly achieved due to devaluation of Sterling after Brexit Vote and some is due to LSE bleeding as UK Companies delisted in favour of NY Bloomberg added that the market cap gap between the UK and French stock markets has been narrowing from about $1.5tn since the Brexit vote in 2016.There is no doubt some UK Service Exports are doing well and masking the poor Goods Exports record but Financial Services are doing relatively poorly. It's a Curate's Egg.
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 25, 2024 13:33:03 GMT
City of London chief ( Lord Mayor of the City of London, Michael Mainelli) says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobsMichael Mainelli said Dublin had gained most, attracting 10,000 positions, while cities such as Milan, Paris and Amsterdam had also benefited from jobs migrating from London after Britain voted to quit the EU trading bloc in 2016. Economic output in the heart of Britain's financial sector, including banks and wealth funds, has fallen by more than 15% since late 2019, just before the UK formally left the EU. Overall, financial services output in Britain has fallen by 1% since late 2019 - a stark contrast with France and Germany, where it has increased by 8%, and Ireland's 18% growth, national account data shows. British financial services exports have been overtaken by other business services, such as law or advertising. Britain's official budget forecaster said in March that its prediction Brexit would cause trade volumes to shrink by 15% was "broadly on track". hr.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/city-of-london-chief-says-brexit-disaster-cost-40000-finance-jobs/114285203 The state of the City of London's Financial Sector
Is there growth or decline since Brexit?
According to the City of London Factsheet issued February 2023 (Reference 1) : " City jobs are at a record high and have grown over 13% since pre-pandemic 2019 to 2022, with nearly 73,000 more jobs than in 2019." and "The City experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic. 29,000 jobs were added to the City between 2021 and 2022."
Reference 2 shows that there has been no reduction in the number of employees in the financial services sector in the UK from 2009 to 2021 TheCityUK issued a press release on 11 September 2024, based on data available as of 30 June 2024 regarding financial and related professional services stating "In the decade to 2022, the industry created 354,000 jobs across the UK, with employment growing at an annual average rate of 1.8%. More than half of these jobs were created outside London" (3) This suggests that London is not doing as well as other regions, notably the West Midlands and Northern Ireland that enjoyed the highest average industry employment growth rates of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, but neither does it suggest that employment in London's financial and related professional services is in any sort of distress, let alone crisis. Apart from the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, Leeds is the fastest growing city in the UK and, I quote, " Over the next ten years, the economy is forecast to grow by 21% with financial and business services set to generate over half of GVA growth over that period." (4) Banks
Banks are experiencing major change. The FT posted a headline last December " Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis " (5) This was a worldwide figure. According to a government report in September: " around 6,100 bank and building society branches have closed since January 2015 across the UK, or are due to close by the end of 2025" (6) This is not a UK or Brexit issue, it is worldwide: According to the FT, twenty of the world’s largest banks shed at least 61,905 jobs total in 2023. (7) According to Reuters, New York lost 23,300 financial services jobs in 2023. (8) The total number of individuals employed at banks across the EU member states dropped significantly during the period between 2008 and 2023, despite a slight increase in 2023. Overall, as of the end of 2023, there were approximately 1.77 million individuals working at banks across Europe, which 470,000 less than 2008. (9) At 13,000 jobs lost, Switzerland’s UBS led the downsizing in 2023 during its Credit Suisse takeover. This was followed by Wells Fargo (12,000 jobs lost), Citigroup (5,000), Morgan Stanley (4,800) and Bank of America (4,000). These reductions are driven by a number of factors across the financial world. The 2008 banking crisis, rationalisation, movement away from traditional banking to on-line, increased IT and other technology, and rationalisation following mergers and acquisitions. London Jobs Scene
There is another factor affecting London jobs scene which is many UK companies are moving head office jobs to other areas outside of London due to increasing costs of living and housing. (10) New York is experiencing a similar exit of jobs to other southern regions, including $1 trillion in assets. (11) Numerous large companies have moved jobs out of London and established offices in the North. Salford is now the base for a large part of operations for BBC, TalkTalk, ITV and M&S. (12) Barclays established a new campus in Tradeston in 2022. PwC has relocated to larger offices in Manchester. With the transfer of office jobs out of London for the North, there could be a slump in building or surplus of office space, but that is not the case. In fact more London office builds began in the summer of 2023 than at any comparable period in the past 18 years, (13) and there is a skyscraper building boom in London. (14) Impact of Brexit on FS Jobs in London
The Standard weighed in first in November 2015 with the headline "'Brexit' would lead to loss of 100,000 bank jobs, says City". (15) The Guardian engaged in "project fear" in April 2016 with the headline "Brexit could lead to loss of 100,000 financial services jobs". (16) Following the referendum many financial firms said they would be moving staff to Europe, but the actual peak reported in 2016 was 12,500 jobs. According to Ernst Young (17) this figure was revised down to 7,400 in December 2021, and down further to just over 7,000 by March 2022. Is that the final figure? I believe not because there has been movement in the opposite direction to London. Firstly a European Parliament report admits that the forecast of large numbers of jobs moving from London to the EU have been hopelessly wrong. (18) Thousands of financial services jobs have actually been created since Brexit and EU banks had relocated some of their operations to London to remain active in the UK market. In December 2023, Dutch company Bunq, the second-largest neo-bank in the EU announced its return to London. More than 1,400 EU-based financial firms have applied for permission to operate in Britain after Brexit. Over 1,000 of these plan to open their first UK office, according to research by financial regulatory consultancy Bovil. (19) It is quite clear Brexit has not been a "disaster" for London's financial services, but a readjustment of offices and jobs in both directions. Would the movement of Euro share trading moved out of London anyway?
Around 2010 a prominent French financier, whose name I cannot remember, left his employment with the EU to return to the French finance industry. He led a concerted campaign to move Euro share trading from London to the Euro zone. In 2011 the European Central Bank in Frankfurt tried to insist that all Euro trades were done inside the Eurozone. Financiers in Europe have tried for many years to wrest the lucrative Euro market from London on the grounds that London is not in the Euro zone. They failed until the UK left the EU, but it is quite likely that even if the UK had remained in the EU that they would have found a way to take this business from the UK market. However it appears that the EU has given up for the time being as the European Commission’s latest rule changes mean it may never be able to wrest control of the massive euro swap market from the UK (20) The Financial Services Scene in 2024, the 4th Year of Brexit.
The UK continues to increase its lead as Europe’s most attractive destination for financial services investment. (21) 2023 ended with significant financial services agreement with Switzerland. (22) Whilst the banking sector continues to decline, vacancies are increasing in other sectors despite an adverse impact due to the general election. (23) Two thirds of UK financial services leaders are more optimistic about the sector’s future growth and global standing under the new Labour government. (24) The industry is constantly redefining itself and has a huge potential with the focus on the worldwide market. London continues to be ranked second in the Global Financial Index for September this year and has in fact closed the rating gap with New York. But there is no room for complacency as other American and Far Eastern financial centres are closing up on London. (25) It is true that Brexit has resulted in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in London's financial sector. Many of these jobs have moved to other European cities like Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Amsterdam, and the financial services sector in the UK has faced significant challenges since Brexit, with a contraction in output and a shift of operations and staff to the EU. It's a substantial impact, and the debate continues on how to address these changes and rebuild relationships with European markets.
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Post by mrcoke on Oct 25, 2024 13:50:27 GMT
The state of the City of London's Financial Sector
Is there growth or decline since Brexit?
According to the City of London Factsheet issued February 2023 (Reference 1) : " City jobs are at a record high and have grown over 13% since pre-pandemic 2019 to 2022, with nearly 73,000 more jobs than in 2019." and "The City experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic. 29,000 jobs were added to the City between 2021 and 2022."
Reference 2 shows that there has been no reduction in the number of employees in the financial services sector in the UK from 2009 to 2021 TheCityUK issued a press release on 11 September 2024, based on data available as of 30 June 2024 regarding financial and related professional services stating "In the decade to 2022, the industry created 354,000 jobs across the UK, with employment growing at an annual average rate of 1.8%. More than half of these jobs were created outside London" (3) This suggests that London is not doing as well as other regions, notably the West Midlands and Northern Ireland that enjoyed the highest average industry employment growth rates of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, but neither does it suggest that employment in London's financial and related professional services is in any sort of distress, let alone crisis. Apart from the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, Leeds is the fastest growing city in the UK and, I quote, " Over the next ten years, the economy is forecast to grow by 21% with financial and business services set to generate over half of GVA growth over that period." (4) Banks
Banks are experiencing major change. The FT posted a headline last December " Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis " (5) This was a worldwide figure. According to a government report in September: " around 6,100 bank and building society branches have closed since January 2015 across the UK, or are due to close by the end of 2025" (6) This is not a UK or Brexit issue, it is worldwide: According to the FT, twenty of the world’s largest banks shed at least 61,905 jobs total in 2023. (7) According to Reuters, New York lost 23,300 financial services jobs in 2023. (8) The total number of individuals employed at banks across the EU member states dropped significantly during the period between 2008 and 2023, despite a slight increase in 2023. Overall, as of the end of 2023, there were approximately 1.77 million individuals working at banks across Europe, which 470,000 less than 2008. (9) At 13,000 jobs lost, Switzerland’s UBS led the downsizing in 2023 during its Credit Suisse takeover. This was followed by Wells Fargo (12,000 jobs lost), Citigroup (5,000), Morgan Stanley (4,800) and Bank of America (4,000). These reductions are driven by a number of factors across the financial world. The 2008 banking crisis, rationalisation, movement away from traditional banking to on-line, increased IT and other technology, and rationalisation following mergers and acquisitions. London Jobs Scene
There is another factor affecting London jobs scene which is many UK companies are moving head office jobs to other areas outside of London due to increasing costs of living and housing. (10) New York is experiencing a similar exit of jobs to other southern regions, including $1 trillion in assets. (11) Numerous large companies have moved jobs out of London and established offices in the North. Salford is now the base for a large part of operations for BBC, TalkTalk, ITV and M&S. (12) Barclays established a new campus in Tradeston in 2022. PwC has relocated to larger offices in Manchester. With the transfer of office jobs out of London for the North, there could be a slump in building or surplus of office space, but that is not the case. In fact more London office builds began in the summer of 2023 than at any comparable period in the past 18 years, (13) and there is a skyscraper building boom in London. (14) Impact of Brexit on FS Jobs in London
The Standard weighed in first in November 2015 with the headline "'Brexit' would lead to loss of 100,000 bank jobs, says City". (15) The Guardian engaged in "project fear" in April 2016 with the headline "Brexit could lead to loss of 100,000 financial services jobs". (16) Following the referendum many financial firms said they would be moving staff to Europe, but the actual peak reported in 2016 was 12,500 jobs. According to Ernst Young (17) this figure was revised down to 7,400 in December 2021, and down further to just over 7,000 by March 2022. Is that the final figure? I believe not because there has been movement in the opposite direction to London. Firstly a European Parliament report admits that the forecast of large numbers of jobs moving from London to the EU have been hopelessly wrong. (18) Thousands of financial services jobs have actually been created since Brexit and EU banks had relocated some of their operations to London to remain active in the UK market. In December 2023, Dutch company Bunq, the second-largest neo-bank in the EU announced its return to London. More than 1,400 EU-based financial firms have applied for permission to operate in Britain after Brexit. Over 1,000 of these plan to open their first UK office, according to research by financial regulatory consultancy Bovil. (19) It is quite clear Brexit has not been a "disaster" for London's financial services, but a readjustment of offices and jobs in both directions. Would the movement of Euro share trading moved out of London anyway?
Around 2010 a prominent French financier, whose name I cannot remember, left his employment with the EU to return to the French finance industry. He led a concerted campaign to move Euro share trading from London to the Euro zone. In 2011 the European Central Bank in Frankfurt tried to insist that all Euro trades were done inside the Eurozone. Financiers in Europe have tried for many years to wrest the lucrative Euro market from London on the grounds that London is not in the Euro zone. They failed until the UK left the EU, but it is quite likely that even if the UK had remained in the EU that they would have found a way to take this business from the UK market. However it appears that the EU has given up for the time being as the European Commission’s latest rule changes mean it may never be able to wrest control of the massive euro swap market from the UK (20) The Financial Services Scene in 2024, the 4th Year of Brexit.
The UK continues to increase its lead as Europe’s most attractive destination for financial services investment. (21) 2023 ended with significant financial services agreement with Switzerland. (22) Whilst the banking sector continues to decline, vacancies are increasing in other sectors despite an adverse impact due to the general election. (23) Two thirds of UK financial services leaders are more optimistic about the sector’s future growth and global standing under the new Labour government. (24) The industry is constantly redefining itself and has a huge potential with the focus on the worldwide market. London continues to be ranked second in the Global Financial Index for September this year and has in fact closed the rating gap with New York. But there is no room for complacency as other American and Far Eastern financial centres are closing up on London. (25) It is true that Brexit has resulted in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in London's financial sector. Many of these jobs have moved to other European cities like Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Amsterdam, and the financial services sector in the UK has faced significant challenges since Brexit, with a contraction in output and a shift of operations and staff to the EU. It's a substantial impact, and the debate continues on how to address these changes and rebuild relationships with European markets. This is the UK stats: www.statista.com/statistics/1385996/uk-finance-workforce/
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 25, 2024 14:33:23 GMT
It is true that Brexit has resulted in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in London's financial sector. Many of these jobs have moved to other European cities like Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Amsterdam, and the financial services sector in the UK has faced significant challenges since Brexit, with a contraction in output and a shift of operations and staff to the EU. It's a substantial impact, and the debate continues on how to address these changes and rebuild relationships with European markets. This is the UK stats: www.statista.com/statistics/1385996/uk-finance-workforce/It's disingenuous to try to argue that, since Brexit, the UK finance sector has not seen a significant number of job losses. The loss of jobs has been partly due to firms relocating parts of their operations to other European cities to maintain access to the EU market. You can argue over the numbers (they're all estimates) but to suggest it hasn't happened is ridiculous.
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Post by mrcoke on Oct 25, 2024 14:56:02 GMT
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 25, 2024 18:46:11 GMT
7,000 isn’t the highest estimate, though, because there’s another estimate of 40,000.
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Post by numpty40 on Oct 25, 2024 18:58:10 GMT
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Post by mrcoke on Oct 25, 2024 21:33:43 GMT
I have absolutely no idea where you are getting your figures from but they are WILDLY incorrect CPTPP member countries have a combined population of 500 million and GDP of £9 trillion. For reference, although the EU is a similar size, with a GDP of £11 trillion, the value of our total trade to the EU is much higher, at £557 billion. All Trade Agreements "wipe out" Tariffs which the UK had with 9 or the 11 CPTPP Countries within EU and after Brexit when it rolled over those Agreements www.iod.com/news/global-business/flying-the-flag-for-global-britain-how-valuable-is-cptpp-for-the-uk-really/Apologies I was quoting figures from the original agreement involving the States. But my initial argument still stands, the UK haven't tried to go alone they have sought trade deals with CPTPP and the States and from your original post have also made a significant trade deal with the major EU country. Germany is on it's arse and it's nothing to do with a Starmer 'reset', they certainly aren't investing in post Brexit UK for the good of the UK..... I agree with your posts, particularly regarding the UK's continued trade with the EU. There is a constant false impression given by remainers that leaving the EU means an end to trading with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. The EU will continue to be the UK's major trading partner, including many joint ventures. That is why the EU agreed such a generous trade agreement. The major EU countries are major investors in the UK economy and it often seems to me that they have more confidence on the UK economy that many of those opposed to Brexit who seem to have little faith in the UK. For example, in 2022, the inward stock of foreign direct investment in the UK from France was £114.8 billion. As the EU is the UK's major customer it is very unfortunate that Germany's economy has stagnated as it does not help UK exports to there. The UK needs the EU economy to thrive just as its other export customers like the US. The CPTPP will be about the same size as the EU after the UK joins, but the main difference is its members are growing faster than the EU which is far more developed. Indonesia is now expected to join which in time will be a major world economy, possibly the 4th largest in the world by 2045. The CPTPP growth rate has been typically >8% pa, more than twice the EU rate. CPTPP will quickly grow to much larger then the EU. Unlike the EU, member states of the CPTPP retain their sovereignty, and trade agreements are very much one to one between members, where tariffs and quotas can be reduced or removed. So the UK will join the CPTPP on the same trade terms agreed with members that it has already negotiated (e.g. Australia, New Zealand, Japan), or the same terms rolled over from EU membership, apart from Malaysia and Brunei. CPTPP terms are a fallback. The UK trade agreement with the EU is quite unique in having no quotas or tariffs, but as we are all aware there is masses of red tape. EU trade agreements are far from truly free having over 13,000 tariffs, innumerable quotas, and interminable red tape on imports from RoW. Unlike the EU, the CPTPP does not see itself as a regulatory superpower enforcing all members to comply with a universal set of regulations, and a customs barrier with the rest of the world. There is no additional layer of government, no Court, no Parliament, no common customs tariff for imports from outside the group, nor a 32,000 employees Commission. It is purely a trade organisation, like many others around the world, that is focused on promoting market-driven economies and the elimination of tariffs and other trade barriers. Neither is the CPTPP like the EU on a path to ever closer union gradually emasculating individual member countries' sovereignty. An example of the potential offered to UK traders is Mexico, which is the 12th largest economy in the world and growing strongly with a huge population whose living standards are rising fast. The Mexico middle class is growing strongly which is important as that is the customer base for many UK exports such as high value goods and services. But Mexico is only the UK's 38th largest trading partner, which is a prime example of how the UK has missed out on potential trade growth whilst trapped inside the EU customs barrier and the EU Commission being the sole authority to negotiate the UK's trading agreements with other countries. Since leaving the EU, the annual trade growth with Mexico was almost 12% in 2023. The UK rolled over trade agreement with Mexico from EU membership contains a score or more of quotas on eggs products, fruits and juices, vegetables, fish, and even chewing gum. There are all manner of tariffs on goods such as 16% of some honeys. These were included to protect the EU from cheaper foreign food imports to protect the CAP. The present agreement has quotas on UK exports to Mexico such as dairy products including cheese, and tariffs such as up to 75% on some meats, chocolate and sugar confectionery. The UK is now in the process of negotiating a new one to one agreement with Mexico with a view to reducing and eliminating quotas, tariffs and other restrictions carried over from the EU agreement and facilitating increased exports. But it is not solely about trade per se. UK's membership of CPTPP bolsters the group's resistance to China's expansionism in the far east, and strengthens our relationship with Japan. It provides an opportunity to reduce the UK's dependence on the EU for food, which will diminish as a future supply source, and spreads the UK's dependency generally. Chile and Peru have access to crucial metals, including copper, gold and lithium, which are essential for the UK’s resilience, security and energy ambitions. CPTPP membership also makes the UK a more attractive country to invest in with strong links with the other 12 members, providing a gateway to one of the world's largest trade groups, even ironically for the EU members' businesses.
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 25, 2024 22:05:45 GMT
By joining CPTPP, the UK aligns itself with countries that share its values and economic interests, potentially creating a counterbalance to China's influence. However, the impact on China's expansionism would depend on the collective actions and policies of CPTPP members.
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Post by wannabee on Oct 25, 2024 22:21:13 GMT
Apologies I was quoting figures from the original agreement involving the States. But my initial argument still stands, the UK haven't tried to go alone they have sought trade deals with CPTPP and the States and from your original post have also made a significant trade deal with the major EU country. Germany is on it's arse and it's nothing to do with a Starmer 'reset', they certainly aren't investing in post Brexit UK for the good of the UK..... I agree with your posts, particularly regarding the UK's continued trade with the EU. There is a constant false impression given by remainers that leaving the EU means an end to trading with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. The EU will continue to be the UK's major trading partner, including many joint ventures. That is why the EU agreed such a generous trade agreement. The major EU countries are major investors in the UK economy and it often seems to me that they have more confidence on the UK economy that many of those opposed to Brexit who seem to have little faith in the UK. For example, in 2022, the inward stock of foreign direct investment in the UK from France was £114.8 billion. As the EU is the UK's major customer it is very unfortunate that Germany's economy has stagnated as it does not help UK exports to there. The UK needs the EU economy to thrive just as its other export customers like the US. The CPTPP will be about the same size as the EU after the UK joins, but the main difference is its members are growing faster than the EU which is far more developed. Indonesia is now expected to join which in time will be a major world economy, possibly the 4th largest in the world by 2045. The CPTPP growth rate has been typically >8% pa, more than twice the EU rate. CPTPP will quickly grow to much larger then the EU. Unlike the EU, member states of the CPTPP retain their sovereignty, and trade agreements are very much one to one between members, where tariffs and quotas can be reduced or removed. So the UK will join the CPTPP on the same trade terms agreed with members that it has already negotiated (e.g. Australia, New Zealand, Japan), or the same terms rolled over from EU membership, apart from Malaysia and Brunei. CPTPP terms are a fallback. The UK trade agreement with the EU is quite unique in having no quotas or tariffs, but as we are all aware there is masses of red tape. EU trade agreements are far from truly free having over 13,000 tariffs, innumerable quotas, and interminable red tape on imports from RoW. Unlike the EU, the CPTPP does not see itself as a regulatory superpower enforcing all members to comply with a universal set of regulations, and a customs barrier with the rest of the world. There is no additional layer of government, no Court, no Parliament, no common customs tariff for imports from outside the group, nor a 32,000 employees Commission. It is purely a trade organisation, like many others around the world, that is focused on promoting market-driven economies and the elimination of tariffs and other trade barriers. Neither is the CPTPP like the EU on a path to ever closer union gradually emasculating individual member countries' sovereignty. An example of the potential offered to UK traders is Mexico, which is the 12th largest economy in the world and growing strongly with a huge population whose living standards are rising fast. The Mexico middle class is growing strongly which is important as that is the customer base for many UK exports such as high value goods and services. But Mexico is only the UK's 38th largest trading partner, which is a prime example of how the UK has missed out on potential trade growth whilst trapped inside the EU customs barrier and the EU Commission being the sole authority to negotiate the UK's trading agreements with other countries. Since leaving the EU, the annual trade growth with Mexico was almost 12% in 2023. The UK rolled over trade agreement with Mexico from EU membership contains a score or more of quotas on eggs products, fruits and juices, vegetables, fish, and even chewing gum. There are all manner of tariffs on goods such as 16% of some honeys. These were included to protect the EU from cheaper foreign food imports to protect the CAP. The present agreement has quotas on UK exports to Mexico such as dairy products including cheese, and tariffs such as up to 75% on some meats, chocolate and sugar confectionery. The UK is now in the process of negotiating a new one to one agreement with Mexico with a view to reducing and eliminating quotas, tariffs and other restrictions carried over from the EU agreement and facilitating increased exports. But it is not solely about trade per se. UK's membership of CPTPP bolsters the group's resistance to China's expansionism in the far east, and strengthens our relationship with Japan. It provides an opportunity to reduce the UK's dependence on the EU for food, which will diminish as a future supply source, and spreads the UK's dependency generally. Chile and Peru have access to crucial metals, including copper, gold and lithium, which are essential for the UK’s resilience, security and energy ambitions. CPTPP membership also makes the UK a more attractive country to invest in with strong links with the other 12 members, providing a gateway to one of the world's largest trade groups, even ironically for the EU members' businesses. Just one question Mr Coke, if UK now has access to all these fast growing Economies, why was the Conservative Government Economic Assessment that it would only add £2Bn or 0.08% to GDP by 2040? www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-impact-assessment/impact-assessment-of-the-uks-accession-to-the-cptpp-executive-summary-web-version#:~:text=Accession%20to%20CPTPP%20is%20estimated,growth%20relative%20to%20the%20baseline.
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