What now for Brexit?

[wannabee]

Oct 23, 2024 22:20:56 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 16, 2024 17:50:00 GMT wannabee said:

City of London chief ( Lord Mayor of the City of London, Michael Mainelli) says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobs

Michael Mainelli said Dublin had gained most, attracting 10,000 positions, while cities such as Milan, Paris and Amsterdam had also benefited from jobs migrating from London after Britain voted to quit the EU trading bloc in 2016.

Economic output in the heart of Britain's financial sector, including banks and wealth funds, has fallen by more than 15% since late 2019, just before the UK formally left the EU.

Overall, financial services output in Britain has fallen by 1% since late 2019 - a stark contrast with France and Germany, where it has increased by 8%, and Ireland's 18% growth, national account data shows.

British financial services exports have been overtaken by other business services, such as law or advertising.

Britain's official budget forecaster said in March that its prediction Brexit would cause trade volumes to shrink by 15% was "broadly on track".

hr.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/city-of-london-chief-says-brexit-disaster-cost-40000-finance-jobs/114285203

The state of the City of London's Financial Sector

Is there growth or decline since Brexit?
According to the City of London Factsheet issued February 2023 (Reference 1) :
"City jobs are at a record high and have grown over 13% since pre-pandemic 2019 to 2022, with nearly 73,000 more jobs than in 2019." and

"The City experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic. 29,000 jobs were added to the City between 2021 and 2022."

Reference 2 shows that there has been no reduction in the number of employees in the financial services sector in the UK from 2009 to 2021

TheCityUK issued a press release on 11 September 2024, based on data available as of 30 June 2024 regarding financial and related professional services stating "In the decade to 2022, the industry created 354,000 jobs across the UK, with employment growing at an annual average rate of 1.8%. More than half of these jobs were created outside London" (3)

This suggests that London is not doing as well as other regions, notably the West Midlands and Northern Ireland that enjoyed the highest average industry employment growth rates of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, but neither does it suggest that employment in London's financial and related professional services is in any sort of distress, let alone crisis. Apart from the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, Leeds is the fastest growing city in the UK and, I quote, "Over the next ten years, the economy is forecast to grow by 21% with financial and business services set to generate over half of GVA growth over that period." (4)

Banks
Banks are experiencing major change. The FT posted a headline last December "Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis " (5) This was a worldwide figure.
According to a government report in September: "around 6,100 bank and building society branches have closed since January 2015 across the UK, or are due to close by the end of 2025" (6)
This is not a UK or Brexit issue, it is worldwide:
According to the FT, twenty of the world’s largest banks shed at least 61,905 jobs total in 2023. (7)
According to Reuters, New York lost 23,300 financial services jobs in 2023. (8)
The total number of individuals employed at banks across the EU member states dropped significantly during the period between 2008 and 2023, despite a slight increase in 2023. Overall, as of the end of 2023, there were approximately 1.77 million individuals working at banks across Europe, which 470,000 less than 2008. (9)
At 13,000 jobs lost, Switzerland’s UBS led the downsizing in 2023 during its Credit Suisse takeover. This was followed by Wells Fargo (12,000 jobs lost), Citigroup (5,000), Morgan Stanley (4,800) and Bank of America (4,000).
These reductions are driven by a number of factors across the financial world. The 2008 banking crisis, rationalisation, movement away from traditional banking to on-line, increased IT and other technology, and rationalisation following mergers and acquisitions.

London Jobs Scene
There is another factor affecting London jobs scene which is many UK companies are moving head office jobs to other areas outside of London due to increasing costs of living and housing. (10) New York is experiencing a similar exit of jobs to other southern regions, including $1 trillion in assets. (11) Numerous large companies have moved jobs out of London and established offices in the North. Salford is now the base for a large part of operations for BBC, TalkTalk, ITV and M&S. (12) Barclays established a new campus in Tradeston in 2022. PwC has relocated to larger offices in Manchester.
With the transfer of office jobs out of London for the North, there could be a slump in building or surplus of office space, but that is not the case. In fact more London office builds began in the summer of 2023 than at any comparable period in the past 18 years, (13) and there is a skyscraper building boom in London. (14)

Impact of Brexit on FS Jobs in London
​The Standard weighed in first in November 2015 with the headline "'Brexit' would lead to loss of 100,000 bank jobs, says City". (15) The Guardian engaged in "project fear" in April 2016 with the headline "Brexit could lead to loss of 100,000 financial services jobs". (16)
Following the referendum many financial firms said they would be moving staff to Europe, but the actual peak reported in 2016 was 12,500 jobs. According to Ernst Young (17) this figure was revised down to 7,400 in December 2021, and down further to just over 7,000 by March 2022.
Is that the final figure? I believe not because there has been movement in the opposite direction to London. Firstly a European Parliament report admits that the forecast of large numbers of jobs moving from London to the EU have been hopelessly wrong. (18) Thousands of financial services jobs have actually been created since Brexit and EU banks had relocated some of their operations to London to remain active in the UK market. In December 2023, Dutch company Bunq, the second-largest neo-bank in the EU announced its return to London. More than 1,400 EU-based financial firms have applied for permission to operate in Britain after Brexit. Over 1,000 of these plan to open their first UK office, according to research by financial regulatory consultancy Bovil. (19)
It is quite clear Brexit has not been a "disaster" for London's financial services, but a readjustment of offices and jobs in both directions.

Would the movement of Euro share trading moved out of London anyway?
Around 2010 a prominent French financier, whose name I cannot remember, left his employment with the EU to return to the French finance industry. He led a concerted campaign to move Euro share trading from London to the Euro zone. In 2011 the European Central Bank in Frankfurt tried to insist that all Euro trades were done inside the Eurozone. Financiers in Europe have tried for many years to wrest the lucrative Euro market from London on the grounds that London is not in the Euro zone. They failed until the UK left the EU, but it is quite likely that even if the UK had remained in the EU that they would have found a way to take this business from the UK market. However it appears that the EU has given up for the time being as the European Commission’s latest rule changes mean it may never be able to wrest control of the massive euro swap market from the UK (20)

The Financial Services Scene in 2024, the 4th Year of Brexit.
The UK continues to increase its lead as Europe’s most attractive destination for financial services investment. (21) 2023 ended with significant financial services agreement with Switzerland. (22)
Whilst the banking sector continues to decline, vacancies are increasing in other sectors despite an adverse impact due to the general election. (23)
Two thirds of UK financial services leaders are more optimistic about the sector’s future growth and global standing under the new Labour government. (24)
The industry is constantly redefining itself and has a huge potential with the focus on the worldwide market. London continues to be ranked second in the Global Financial Index for September this year and has in fact closed the rating gap with New York. But there is no room for complacency as other American and Far Eastern financial centres are closing up on London. (25)

References
1. www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/assets/Business/City-Stats-Factsheet-May-2024.pdf
2. www.statista.com/statistics/298370/uk-financial-sector-total-financial-services-employment/
3. www.thecityuk.com/news/new-research-shows-uk-financial-and-related-professional-services-are-key-drivers-of-jobs-and-growth-across-regions-and-nations/
4. www.leeds.gov.uk/leeds-economy#:~:text=Leeds%20is%20the%20UK's%20fastest,a%20workforce%20of%201.37%20million
5. www.ft.com/content/cbc6e15d-3c63-49af-9f98-ef8f478431bd
6. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9453/#:~:text=Cash%20was%20used%20forttps://www.bankingdive.com/news/big-banks-cut-62000-jobs-2023-ubs-wells-citi-jpmorgan-stanley-goldman-metro-bofa/703396/%20only,by%20the%20end%20of%202025
7. www.bankingdive.com/news/big-banks-cut-62000-jobs-2023-ubs-wells-citi-jpmorgan-stanley-goldman-metro-bofa/703396/
8. www.reuters.com/business/finance/wall-street-banks-shed-jobs-ease-cost-pressures-2023-09-15/
9. www.statista.com/statistics/940990/number-of-bank-staff-in-europe/#:~:text=Overall%2C%20as%20of%20the%20end,working%20at%20banks%20across%20Europe
10. www.cityam.com/uk-firms-move-more-head-office-roles-outside-london-amid-soaring-costs/
11. www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/08/23/wall-street-is-going-south-and-taking-1-trillion-in-assets-with-it/
12. salboy.com/2021/04/businesses-leaving-london/
13. www.constructionnews.co.uk/buildings/london-office-building-rate-soars-after-pandemic-lull-21-11-2023/#:~:text=More%20London%20office%20builds%20began,to%20the%20end%20of%20September.
14. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/skyscrapers-skyline-city-of-london-99-bishopsgate-one-undershaft-b1147740.html
15. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-would-lead-to-loss-of-100-000-bank-jobs-says-city-a3124661.html
16. www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/14/brexit-could-lead-to-loss-of-100000-financial-services-jobs-report-warns
17. www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2022/03/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-movement-within-uk-financial-services-sector-stabilises-five-years-on-from-article-50-trigger
18. brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/eu-admits-post-brexit-london-city-jobs-loss-forecast-was-way-off-the-mark/
19. www.business4beginners.co.uk/uk-remain-financial-capital-after-brexit/
20. www.fnlondon.com/articles/brussels-diluted-proposals-hand-london-a-victory-over-clearing-20240219
21. www.ey.com/en_gl/newsroom/2024/05/uk-accelerates-its-lead-as-europe-s-most-attractive-destination-for-financial-services-investment#:~:text=The%20UK%20recorded%2085%20new,highest%20level%20in%20a%20decade
22. www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-berne-financial-services-agreement
23. vacancysoft.com/london-uk-finance-labour-market-trends-report-august-2024/
24. kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2024/07/financial-services-leaders-see-brighter-future-for-sector-under-new-government.html
25. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Financial_Centres_Index

With respect Mr Coke that's a lot of words without actually disputing what the City of London Mayor said that Brexit has been a disaster for the City.

I wouldn't expect anything less as it would be rather presumptuous in the extreme if you did

You are fond of saying "Record numbers/levels" which is obvious because it's cumulative, the opposite would be contraction, but it's the rate of increase which is questionable 

However Paris challenged London to become the leader in Equity Markets in Europe is irrelevant, the fact is Paris closed a $1.5Trn gap to now be at least equal to LSE. To be fair it was partly achieved due to devaluation of Sterling after Brexit Vote and some is due to LSE bleeding as UK Companies delisted in favour of NY

Bloomberg added that the market cap gap between the UK and French stock markets has been narrowing from about $1.5tn since the Brexit vote in 2016.

There is no doubt some UK Service Exports are doing well and masking the poor Goods Exports record but Financial Services are doing relatively poorly. It's a Curate's Egg.

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 23, 2024 22:20:56 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 16, 2024 17:50:00 GMT wannabee said:

City of London chief ( Lord Mayor of the City of London, Michael Mainelli) says Brexit 'disaster' cost 40,000 finance jobs

Michael Mainelli said Dublin had gained most, attracting 10,000 positions, while cities such as Milan, Paris and Amsterdam had also benefited from jobs migrating from London after Britain voted to quit the EU trading bloc in 2016.

Economic output in the heart of Britain's financial sector, including banks and wealth funds, has fallen by more than 15% since late 2019, just before the UK formally left the EU.

Overall, financial services output in Britain has fallen by 1% since late 2019 - a stark contrast with France and Germany, where it has increased by 8%, and Ireland's 18% growth, national account data shows.

British financial services exports have been overtaken by other business services, such as law or advertising.

Britain's official budget forecaster said in March that its prediction Brexit would cause trade volumes to shrink by 15% was "broadly on track".

hr.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/city-of-london-chief-says-brexit-disaster-cost-40000-finance-jobs/114285203

The state of the City of London's Financial Sector

Is there growth or decline since Brexit?
According to the City of London Factsheet issued February 2023 (Reference 1) :
"City jobs are at a record high and have grown over 13% since pre-pandemic 2019 to 2022, with nearly 73,000 more jobs than in 2019." and

"The City experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic. 29,000 jobs were added to the City between 2021 and 2022."

Reference 2 shows that there has been no reduction in the number of employees in the financial services sector in the UK from 2009 to 2021

TheCityUK issued a press release on 11 September 2024, based on data available as of 30 June 2024 regarding financial and related professional services stating "In the decade to 2022, the industry created 354,000 jobs across the UK, with employment growing at an annual average rate of 1.8%. More than half of these jobs were created outside London" (3)

This suggests that London is not doing as well as other regions, notably the West Midlands and Northern Ireland that enjoyed the highest average industry employment growth rates of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, but neither does it suggest that employment in London's financial and related professional services is in any sort of distress, let alone crisis. Apart from the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, Leeds is the fastest growing city in the UK and, I quote, "Over the next ten years, the economy is forecast to grow by 21% with financial and business services set to generate over half of GVA growth over that period." (4)

Banks
Banks are experiencing major change. The FT posted a headline last December "Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis " (5) This was a worldwide figure.
According to a government report in September: "around 6,100 bank and building society branches have closed since January 2015 across the UK, or are due to close by the end of 2025" (6)
This is not a UK or Brexit issue, it is worldwide:
According to the FT, twenty of the world’s largest banks shed at least 61,905 jobs total in 2023. (7)
According to Reuters, New York lost 23,300 financial services jobs in 2023. (8)
The total number of individuals employed at banks across the EU member states dropped significantly during the period between 2008 and 2023, despite a slight increase in 2023. Overall, as of the end of 2023, there were approximately 1.77 million individuals working at banks across Europe, which 470,000 less than 2008. (9)
At 13,000 jobs lost, Switzerland’s UBS led the downsizing in 2023 during its Credit Suisse takeover. This was followed by Wells Fargo (12,000 jobs lost), Citigroup (5,000), Morgan Stanley (4,800) and Bank of America (4,000).
These reductions are driven by a number of factors across the financial world. The 2008 banking crisis, rationalisation, movement away from traditional banking to on-line, increased IT and other technology, and rationalisation following mergers and acquisitions.

London Jobs Scene
There is another factor affecting London jobs scene which is many UK companies are moving head office jobs to other areas outside of London due to increasing costs of living and housing. (10) New York is experiencing a similar exit of jobs to other southern regions, including $1 trillion in assets. (11) Numerous large companies have moved jobs out of London and established offices in the North. Salford is now the base for a large part of operations for BBC, TalkTalk, ITV and M&S. (12) Barclays established a new campus in Tradeston in 2022. PwC has relocated to larger offices in Manchester.
With the transfer of office jobs out of London for the North, there could be a slump in building or surplus of office space, but that is not the case. In fact more London office builds began in the summer of 2023 than at any comparable period in the past 18 years, (13) and there is a skyscraper building boom in London. (14)

Impact of Brexit on FS Jobs in London
​The Standard weighed in first in November 2015 with the headline "'Brexit' would lead to loss of 100,000 bank jobs, says City". (15) The Guardian engaged in "project fear" in April 2016 with the headline "Brexit could lead to loss of 100,000 financial services jobs". (16)
Following the referendum many financial firms said they would be moving staff to Europe, but the actual peak reported in 2016 was 12,500 jobs. According to Ernst Young (17) this figure was revised down to 7,400 in December 2021, and down further to just over 7,000 by March 2022.
Is that the final figure? I believe not because there has been movement in the opposite direction to London. Firstly a European Parliament report admits that the forecast of large numbers of jobs moving from London to the EU have been hopelessly wrong. (18) Thousands of financial services jobs have actually been created since Brexit and EU banks had relocated some of their operations to London to remain active in the UK market. In December 2023, Dutch company Bunq, the second-largest neo-bank in the EU announced its return to London. More than 1,400 EU-based financial firms have applied for permission to operate in Britain after Brexit. Over 1,000 of these plan to open their first UK office, according to research by financial regulatory consultancy Bovil. (19)
It is quite clear Brexit has not been a "disaster" for London's financial services, but a readjustment of offices and jobs in both directions.

Would the movement of Euro share trading moved out of London anyway?
Around 2010 a prominent French financier, whose name I cannot remember, left his employment with the EU to return to the French finance industry. He led a concerted campaign to move Euro share trading from London to the Euro zone. In 2011 the European Central Bank in Frankfurt tried to insist that all Euro trades were done inside the Eurozone. Financiers in Europe have tried for many years to wrest the lucrative Euro market from London on the grounds that London is not in the Euro zone. They failed until the UK left the EU, but it is quite likely that even if the UK had remained in the EU that they would have found a way to take this business from the UK market. However it appears that the EU has given up for the time being as the European Commission’s latest rule changes mean it may never be able to wrest control of the massive euro swap market from the UK (20)

The Financial Services Scene in 2024, the 4th Year of Brexit.
The UK continues to increase its lead as Europe’s most attractive destination for financial services investment. (21) 2023 ended with significant financial services agreement with Switzerland. (22)
Whilst the banking sector continues to decline, vacancies are increasing in other sectors despite an adverse impact due to the general election. (23)
Two thirds of UK financial services leaders are more optimistic about the sector’s future growth and global standing under the new Labour government. (24)
The industry is constantly redefining itself and has a huge potential with the focus on the worldwide market. London continues to be ranked second in the Global Financial Index for September this year and has in fact closed the rating gap with New York. But there is no room for complacency as other American and Far Eastern financial centres are closing up on London. (25)

It is true that Brexit has resulted in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in London's financial sector. Many of these jobs have moved to other European cities like Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Amsterdam, and the financial services sector in the UK has faced significant challenges since Brexit, with a contraction in output and a shift of operations and staff to the EU. It's a substantial impact, and the debate continues on how to address these changes and rebuild relationships with European markets. 

[mrcoke]

Oct 25, 2024 13:33:03 GMT Ariel Manto said:

Oct 23, 2024 22:20:56 GMT mrcoke said:

The state of the City of London's Financial Sector

Is there growth or decline since Brexit?
According to the City of London Factsheet issued February 2023 (Reference 1) :
"City jobs are at a record high and have grown over 13% since pre-pandemic 2019 to 2022, with nearly 73,000 more jobs than in 2019." and

"The City experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic. 29,000 jobs were added to the City between 2021 and 2022."

Reference 2 shows that there has been no reduction in the number of employees in the financial services sector in the UK from 2009 to 2021

TheCityUK issued a press release on 11 September 2024, based on data available as of 30 June 2024 regarding financial and related professional services stating "In the decade to 2022, the industry created 354,000 jobs across the UK, with employment growing at an annual average rate of 1.8%. More than half of these jobs were created outside London" (3)

This suggests that London is not doing as well as other regions, notably the West Midlands and Northern Ireland that enjoyed the highest average industry employment growth rates of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, but neither does it suggest that employment in London's financial and related professional services is in any sort of distress, let alone crisis. Apart from the West Midlands and Northern Ireland, Leeds is the fastest growing city in the UK and, I quote, "Over the next ten years, the economy is forecast to grow by 21% with financial and business services set to generate over half of GVA growth over that period." (4)

Banks
Banks are experiencing major change. The FT posted a headline last December "Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis " (5) This was a worldwide figure.
According to a government report in September: "around 6,100 bank and building society branches have closed since January 2015 across the UK, or are due to close by the end of 2025" (6)
This is not a UK or Brexit issue, it is worldwide:
According to the FT, twenty of the world’s largest banks shed at least 61,905 jobs total in 2023. (7)
According to Reuters, New York lost 23,300 financial services jobs in 2023. (8)
The total number of individuals employed at banks across the EU member states dropped significantly during the period between 2008 and 2023, despite a slight increase in 2023. Overall, as of the end of 2023, there were approximately 1.77 million individuals working at banks across Europe, which 470,000 less than 2008. (9)
At 13,000 jobs lost, Switzerland’s UBS led the downsizing in 2023 during its Credit Suisse takeover. This was followed by Wells Fargo (12,000 jobs lost), Citigroup (5,000), Morgan Stanley (4,800) and Bank of America (4,000).
These reductions are driven by a number of factors across the financial world. The 2008 banking crisis, rationalisation, movement away from traditional banking to on-line, increased IT and other technology, and rationalisation following mergers and acquisitions.

London Jobs Scene
There is another factor affecting London jobs scene which is many UK companies are moving head office jobs to other areas outside of London due to increasing costs of living and housing. (10) New York is experiencing a similar exit of jobs to other southern regions, including $1 trillion in assets. (11) Numerous large companies have moved jobs out of London and established offices in the North. Salford is now the base for a large part of operations for BBC, TalkTalk, ITV and M&S. (12) Barclays established a new campus in Tradeston in 2022. PwC has relocated to larger offices in Manchester.
With the transfer of office jobs out of London for the North, there could be a slump in building or surplus of office space, but that is not the case. In fact more London office builds began in the summer of 2023 than at any comparable period in the past 18 years, (13) and there is a skyscraper building boom in London. (14)

Impact of Brexit on FS Jobs in London
​The Standard weighed in first in November 2015 with the headline "'Brexit' would lead to loss of 100,000 bank jobs, says City". (15) The Guardian engaged in "project fear" in April 2016 with the headline "Brexit could lead to loss of 100,000 financial services jobs". (16)
Following the referendum many financial firms said they would be moving staff to Europe, but the actual peak reported in 2016 was 12,500 jobs. According to Ernst Young (17) this figure was revised down to 7,400 in December 2021, and down further to just over 7,000 by March 2022.
Is that the final figure? I believe not because there has been movement in the opposite direction to London. Firstly a European Parliament report admits that the forecast of large numbers of jobs moving from London to the EU have been hopelessly wrong. (18) Thousands of financial services jobs have actually been created since Brexit and EU banks had relocated some of their operations to London to remain active in the UK market. In December 2023, Dutch company Bunq, the second-largest neo-bank in the EU announced its return to London. More than 1,400 EU-based financial firms have applied for permission to operate in Britain after Brexit. Over 1,000 of these plan to open their first UK office, according to research by financial regulatory consultancy Bovil. (19)
It is quite clear Brexit has not been a "disaster" for London's financial services, but a readjustment of offices and jobs in both directions.

Would the movement of Euro share trading moved out of London anyway?
Around 2010 a prominent French financier, whose name I cannot remember, left his employment with the EU to return to the French finance industry. He led a concerted campaign to move Euro share trading from London to the Euro zone. In 2011 the European Central Bank in Frankfurt tried to insist that all Euro trades were done inside the Eurozone. Financiers in Europe have tried for many years to wrest the lucrative Euro market from London on the grounds that London is not in the Euro zone. They failed until the UK left the EU, but it is quite likely that even if the UK had remained in the EU that they would have found a way to take this business from the UK market. However it appears that the EU has given up for the time being as the European Commission’s latest rule changes mean it may never be able to wrest control of the massive euro swap market from the UK (20)

The Financial Services Scene in 2024, the 4th Year of Brexit.
The UK continues to increase its lead as Europe’s most attractive destination for financial services investment. (21) 2023 ended with significant financial services agreement with Switzerland. (22)
Whilst the banking sector continues to decline, vacancies are increasing in other sectors despite an adverse impact due to the general election. (23)
Two thirds of UK financial services leaders are more optimistic about the sector’s future growth and global standing under the new Labour government. (24)
The industry is constantly redefining itself and has a huge potential with the focus on the worldwide market. London continues to be ranked second in the Global Financial Index for September this year and has in fact closed the rating gap with New York. But there is no room for complacency as other American and Far Eastern financial centres are closing up on London. (25)

It is true that Brexit has resulted in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in London's financial sector. Many of these jobs have moved to other European cities like Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Amsterdam, and the financial services sector in the UK has faced significant challenges since Brexit, with a contraction in output and a shift of operations and staff to the EU. It's a substantial impact, and the debate continues on how to address these changes and rebuild relationships with European markets. 

This is the UK stats:

www.statista.com/statistics/1385996/uk-finance-workforce/

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 25, 2024 13:50:27 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 25, 2024 13:33:03 GMT Ariel Manto said:

It is true that Brexit has resulted in the loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in London's financial sector. Many of these jobs have moved to other European cities like Dublin, Paris, Milan, and Amsterdam, and the financial services sector in the UK has faced significant challenges since Brexit, with a contraction in output and a shift of operations and staff to the EU. It's a substantial impact, and the debate continues on how to address these changes and rebuild relationships with European markets. 

This is the UK stats:

www.statista.com/statistics/1385996/uk-finance-workforce/

It's disingenuous to try to argue that, since Brexit, the UK finance sector has not seen a significant number of job losses. The loss of jobs has been partly due to firms relocating parts of their operations to other European cities to maintain access to the EU market. You can argue over the numbers (they're all estimates) but to suggest it hasn't happened is ridiculous.

[mrcoke]

Oct 25, 2024 14:33:23 GMT Ariel Manto said:

Oct 25, 2024 13:50:27 GMT mrcoke said:

This is the UK stats:

www.statista.com/statistics/1385996/uk-finance-workforce/

It's disingenuous to try to argue that, since Brexit, the UK finance sector has not seen a significant number of job losses. The loss of jobs has been partly due to firms relocating parts of their operations to other European cities to maintain access to the EU market. You can argue over the numbers (they're all estimates) but to suggest it hasn't happened is ridiculous.

I have not said there were no jobs losses.
The highest estimate is 7,000:

brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/eu-admits-post-brexit-london-city-jobs-loss-forecast-was-way-off-the-mark/

But the above link says there are many more jobs created in London by EU companies moving offices into London.

www.business4beginners.co.uk/uk-remain-financial-capital-after-brexit/

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 25, 2024 14:56:02 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 25, 2024 14:33:23 GMT Ariel Manto said:

It's disingenuous to try to argue that, since Brexit, the UK finance sector has not seen a significant number of job losses. The loss of jobs has been partly due to firms relocating parts of their operations to other European cities to maintain access to the EU market. You can argue over the numbers (they're all estimates) but to suggest it hasn't happened is ridiculous.

I have not said there were no jobs losses.
The highest estimate is 7,000:

brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/eu-admits-post-brexit-london-city-jobs-loss-forecast-was-way-off-the-mark/

But the above link says there are many more jobs created in London by EU companies moving offices into London.

www.business4beginners.co.uk/uk-remain-financial-capital-after-brexit/

7,000 isn’t the highest estimate, though, because there’s another estimate of 40,000.

[numpty40]

It appears it's not just in the UK that financial sector jobs are being lost.

www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.politico.eu/article/job-losses-beset-banking-sector/&ved=2ahUKEwjjw7GfmqqJAxUhUkEAHQsjLdgQFnoECB4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0w3j7XdfjBFHaZvE_uSxOz

[mrcoke]

Oct 23, 2024 19:51:59 GMT numpty40 said:

Oct 23, 2024 19:09:11 GMT wannabee said:

I have absolutely no idea where you are getting your figures from but they are WILDLY incorrect 


CPTPP member countries have a combined population of 500 million and GDP of £9 trillion. For reference, although the EU is a similar size, with a GDP of £11 trillion, the value of our total trade to the EU is much higher, at £557 billion.

All Trade Agreements "wipe out" Tariffs which the UK had with 9 or the 11 CPTPP Countries within EU and after Brexit when it rolled over those Agreements 

www.iod.com/news/global-business/flying-the-flag-for-global-britain-how-valuable-is-cptpp-for-the-uk-really/

Apologies I was quoting figures from the original agreement involving the States.
But my initial argument still stands, the UK haven't tried to go alone they have sought trade deals with CPTPP and the States and from your original post have also made a significant trade deal with the major EU country.
Germany is on it's arse and it's nothing to do with a Starmer 'reset', they certainly aren't investing in post Brexit UK for the good of the UK.....

I agree with your posts, particularly regarding the UK's continued trade with the EU.

There is a constant false impression given by remainers that leaving the EU means an end to trading with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. The EU will continue to be the UK's major trading partner, including many joint ventures. That is why the EU agreed such a generous trade agreement.

The major EU countries are major investors in the UK economy and it often seems to me that they have more confidence on the UK economy that many of those opposed to Brexit who seem to have little faith in the UK. For example, in 2022, the inward stock of foreign direct investment in the UK from France was £114.8 billion.

As the EU is the UK's major customer it is very unfortunate that Germany's economy has stagnated as it does not help UK exports to there. The UK needs the EU economy to thrive just as its other export customers like the US.

The CPTPP will be about the same size as the EU after the UK joins, but the main difference is its members are growing faster than the EU which is far more developed. Indonesia is now expected to join which in time will be a major world economy, possibly the 4th largest in the world by 2045.

The CPTPP growth rate has been typically >8% pa, more than twice the EU rate. CPTPP will quickly grow to much larger then the EU.

Unlike the EU, member states of the CPTPP retain their sovereignty, and trade agreements are very much one to one between members, where tariffs and quotas can be reduced or removed. So the UK will join the CPTPP on the same trade terms agreed with members that it has already negotiated (e.g. Australia, New Zealand, Japan), or the same terms rolled over from EU membership, apart from Malaysia and Brunei. CPTPP terms are a fallback.

The UK trade agreement with the EU is quite unique in having no quotas or tariffs, but as we are all aware there is masses of red tape. EU trade agreements are far from truly free having over 13,000 tariffs, innumerable quotas, and interminable red tape on imports from RoW.

Unlike the EU, the CPTPP does not see itself as a regulatory superpower enforcing all members to comply with a universal set of regulations, and a customs barrier with the rest of the world. There is no additional layer of government, no Court, no Parliament, no common customs tariff for imports from outside the group, nor a 32,000 employees Commission. It is purely a trade organisation, like many others around the world, that is focused on promoting market-driven economies and the elimination of tariffs and other trade barriers.

Neither is the CPTPP like the EU on a path to ever closer union gradually emasculating individual member countries' sovereignty.

An example of the potential offered to UK traders is Mexico, which is the 12th largest economy in the world and growing strongly with a huge population whose living standards are rising fast. The Mexico middle class is growing strongly which is important as that is the customer base for many UK exports such as high value goods and services. But Mexico is only the UK's 38th largest trading partner, which is a prime example of how the UK has missed out on potential trade growth whilst trapped inside the EU customs barrier and the EU Commission being the sole authority to negotiate the UK's trading agreements with other countries. Since leaving the EU, the annual trade growth with Mexico was almost 12% in 2023.

The UK rolled over trade agreement with Mexico from EU membership contains a score or more of quotas on eggs products, fruits and juices, vegetables, fish, and even chewing gum. There are all manner of tariffs on goods such as 16% of some honeys. These were included to protect the EU from cheaper foreign food imports to protect the CAP. The present agreement has quotas on UK exports to Mexico such as dairy products including cheese, and tariffs such as up to 75% on some meats, chocolate and sugar confectionery.

The UK is now in the process of negotiating a new one to one agreement with Mexico with a view to reducing and eliminating quotas, tariffs and other restrictions carried over from the EU agreement and facilitating increased exports.

But it is not solely about trade per se. UK's membership of CPTPP bolsters the group's resistance to China's expansionism in the far east, and strengthens our relationship with Japan. It provides an opportunity to reduce the UK's dependence on the EU for food, which will diminish as a future supply source, and spreads the UK's dependency generally. Chile and Peru have access to crucial metals, including copper, gold and lithium, which are essential for the UK’s resilience, security and energy ambitions. CPTPP membership also makes the UK a more attractive country to invest in with strong links with the other 12 members, providing a gateway to one of the world's largest trade groups, even ironically for the EU members' businesses.

[Ariel Manto]

By joining CPTPP, the UK aligns itself with countries that share its values and economic interests, potentially creating a counterbalance to China's influence. However, the impact on China's expansionism would depend on the collective actions and policies of CPTPP members.

[wannabee]

Oct 25, 2024 21:33:43 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 23, 2024 19:51:59 GMT numpty40 said:

Apologies I was quoting figures from the original agreement involving the States.
But my initial argument still stands, the UK haven't tried to go alone they have sought trade deals with CPTPP and the States and from your original post have also made a significant trade deal with the major EU country.
Germany is on it's arse and it's nothing to do with a Starmer 'reset', they certainly aren't investing in post Brexit UK for the good of the UK.....

I agree with your posts, particularly regarding the UK's continued trade with the EU.

There is a constant false impression given by remainers that leaving the EU means an end to trading with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. The EU will continue to be the UK's major trading partner, including many joint ventures. That is why the EU agreed such a generous trade agreement.

The major EU countries are major investors in the UK economy and it often seems to me that they have more confidence on the UK economy that many of those opposed to Brexit who seem to have little faith in the UK. For example, in 2022, the inward stock of foreign direct investment in the UK from France was £114.8 billion.

As the EU is the UK's major customer it is very unfortunate that Germany's economy has stagnated as it does not help UK exports to there. The UK needs the EU economy to thrive just as its other export customers like the US.

The CPTPP will be about the same size as the EU after the UK joins, but the main difference is its members are growing faster than the EU which is far more developed. Indonesia is now expected to join which in time will be a major world economy, possibly the 4th largest in the world by 2045.

The CPTPP growth rate has been typically >8% pa, more than twice the EU rate. CPTPP will quickly grow to much larger then the EU.

Unlike the EU, member states of the CPTPP retain their sovereignty, and trade agreements are very much one to one between members, where tariffs and quotas can be reduced or removed. So the UK will join the CPTPP on the same trade terms agreed with members that it has already negotiated (e.g. Australia, New Zealand, Japan), or the same terms rolled over from EU membership, apart from Malaysia and Brunei. CPTPP terms are a fallback.

The UK trade agreement with the EU is quite unique in having no quotas or tariffs, but as we are all aware there is masses of red tape. EU trade agreements are far from truly free having over 13,000 tariffs, innumerable quotas, and interminable red tape on imports from RoW.

Unlike the EU, the CPTPP does not see itself as a regulatory superpower enforcing all members to comply with a universal set of regulations, and a customs barrier with the rest of the world. There is no additional layer of government, no Court, no Parliament, no common customs tariff for imports from outside the group, nor a 32,000 employees Commission. It is purely a trade organisation, like many others around the world, that is focused on promoting market-driven economies and the elimination of tariffs and other trade barriers.

Neither is the CPTPP like the EU on a path to ever closer union gradually emasculating individual member countries' sovereignty.

An example of the potential offered to UK traders is Mexico, which is the 12th largest economy in the world and growing strongly with a huge population whose living standards are rising fast. The Mexico middle class is growing strongly which is important as that is the customer base for many UK exports such as high value goods and services. But Mexico is only the UK's 38th largest trading partner, which is a prime example of how the UK has missed out on potential trade growth whilst trapped inside the EU customs barrier and the EU Commission being the sole authority to negotiate the UK's trading agreements with other countries. Since leaving the EU, the annual trade growth with Mexico was almost 12% in 2023.

The UK rolled over trade agreement with Mexico from EU membership contains a score or more of quotas on eggs products, fruits and juices, vegetables, fish, and even chewing gum. There are all manner of tariffs on goods such as 16% of some honeys. These were included to protect the EU from cheaper foreign food imports to protect the CAP. The present agreement has quotas on UK exports to Mexico such as dairy products including cheese, and tariffs such as up to 75% on some meats, chocolate and sugar confectionery.

The UK is now in the process of negotiating a new one to one agreement with Mexico with a view to reducing and eliminating quotas, tariffs and other restrictions carried over from the EU agreement and facilitating increased exports.

But it is not solely about trade per se. UK's membership of CPTPP bolsters the group's resistance to China's expansionism in the far east, and strengthens our relationship with Japan. It provides an opportunity to reduce the UK's dependence on the EU for food, which will diminish as a future supply source, and spreads the UK's dependency generally. Chile and Peru have access to crucial metals, including copper, gold and lithium, which are essential for the UK’s resilience, security and energy ambitions. CPTPP membership also makes the UK a more attractive country to invest in with strong links with the other 12 members, providing a gateway to one of the world's largest trade groups, even ironically for the EU members' businesses.

Just one question Mr Coke, if UK now has access to all these fast growing Economies, why was the Conservative Government Economic Assessment that it would only add £2Bn or 0.08% to GDP by 2040?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-impact-assessment/impact-assessment-of-the-uks-accession-to-the-cptpp-executive-summary-web-version#:~:text=Accession%20to%20CPTPP%20is%20estimated,growth%20relative%20to%20the%20baseline.

[mrcoke]

Oct 25, 2024 18:46:11 GMT Ariel Manto said:

Oct 25, 2024 14:56:02 GMT mrcoke said:

I have not said there were no jobs losses.
The highest estimate is 7,000:

brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/eu-admits-post-brexit-london-city-jobs-loss-forecast-was-way-off-the-mark/

But the above link says there are many more jobs created in London by EU companies moving offices into London.

www.business4beginners.co.uk/uk-remain-financial-capital-after-brexit/

7,000 isn’t the highest estimate, though, because there’s another estimate of 40,000.

I have provided statistical evidence.
There is no evidence of huge job losses in London.

www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/gor/2013265927/subreports/nrhi_time_series/report.aspx?

If you follow the top link of the list in the above link, there are 300,000 more people working in London than at the time of the referendum. If you look at the professional classes it is the same sort of increase. There has been movement of jobs both ways with the EU.

There is in fact a shortage of labour and Khan is calling for more immigration by restoring freedom of movement with the EU. Khan seems to be on a rejoin EU mission and using tax payers money to commission flawed reports on the impact of Brexit. He is a clever politician and  obviously knows his electorate in London and seeking to keep his job.

[oggyoggy]

Oct 27, 2024 9:56:00 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 25, 2024 18:46:11 GMT Ariel Manto said:

7,000 isn’t the highest estimate, though, because there’s another estimate of 40,000.

I have provided statistical evidence.
There is no evidence of huge job losses in London.

www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/gor/2013265927/subreports/nrhi_time_series/report.aspx?

If you follow the top link of the list in the above link, there are 300,000 more people working in London than at the time of the referendum. If you look at the professional classes it is the same sort of increase. There has been movement of jobs both ways with the EU.

There is in fact a shortage of labour and Khan is calling for more immigration by restoring freedom of movement with the EU. Khan seems to be on a rejoin EU mission and using tax payers money to commission flawed reports on the impact of Brexit. He is a clever politician and  obviously knows his electorate in London and seeking to keep his job.

Or perhaps he knows what is best for his electorate.

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 27, 2024 9:56:00 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 25, 2024 18:46:11 GMT Ariel Manto said:

7,000 isn’t the highest estimate, though, because there’s another estimate of 40,000.

I have provided statistical evidence.
There is no evidence of huge job losses in London.

www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/gor/2013265927/subreports/nrhi_time_series/report.aspx?

If you follow the top link of the list in the above link, there are 300,000 more people working in London than at the time of the referendum. If you look at the professional classes it is the same sort of increase. There has been movement of jobs both ways with the EU.

There is in fact a shortage of labour and Khan is calling for more immigration by restoring freedom of movement with the EU. Khan seems to be on a rejoin EU mission and using tax payers money to commission flawed reports on the impact of Brexit. He is a clever politician and  obviously knows his electorate in London and seeking to keep his job.

Actually, there is evidence of significant job losses in London following Brexit.

According to reports, the City of London has lost around 40,000 jobs since the UK's exit from the European Union. Compounding that, Britain’s financial services output has contracted by 1% since the end of 2019, according to the same ONS you repeatedly cite, while France and Germany recorded 8% growth and Ireland’s financial sector is up 18%. This figure far exceeds earlier estimates and highlights the impact on London's financial sector, with cities like Dublin, Milan, Paris, and Amsterdam benefitting from this shift, gaining skilled employees who moved from London.


It's clear that Brexit has had a substantial effect on The City of London's economy, with financial services output contracting and trade volumes decreasing. In March, Britain’s official budget forecaster (OBR) confirmed its earlier projection that Brexit would cut trade volumes by 15 per cent was “broadly on track.” That is on top of warnings that a shift in chunks of euro derivatives clearing from London to European Union countries is now inevitable.


You say that, overall, there have been 300,000 more payrolled employees working in London than since the Brexit referendum. Whilst this is true, the point you are missing (or deliberately conflating) is that there have still been 40,000 overall job losses in the financial sector despite. The only areas of hiring in the financial sector have been in regulatory compliance, digital transformation, and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives but it does not make up the 40,000 short fall.

[lordb]

The arguments for leave before and during the Brexit debate/farce were risible then , to make the argument now where we can see that's it's an absolute disaster is nothing short of scandalous doublespeak of the higgest order

Disgusting

[mrcoke]

Oct 27, 2024 10:22:03 GMT Ariel Manto said:

Oct 27, 2024 9:56:00 GMT mrcoke said:

I have provided statistical evidence.
There is no evidence of huge job losses in London.

www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/gor/2013265927/subreports/nrhi_time_series/report.aspx?

If you follow the top link of the list in the above link, there are 300,000 more people working in London than at the time of the referendum. If you look at the professional classes it is the same sort of increase. There has been movement of jobs both ways with the EU.

There is in fact a shortage of labour and Khan is calling for more immigration by restoring freedom of movement with the EU. Khan seems to be on a rejoin EU mission and using tax payers money to commission flawed reports on the impact of Brexit. He is a clever politician and  obviously knows his electorate in London and seeking to keep his job.

Actually, there is evidence of significant job losses in London following Brexit.

According to reports, the City of London has lost around 40,000 jobs since the UK's exit from the European Union. Compounding that, Britain’s financial services output has contracted by 1% since the end of 2019, according to the same ONS you repeatedly cite, while France and Germany recorded 8% growth and Ireland’s financial sector is up 18%. This figure far exceeds earlier estimates and highlights the impact on London's financial sector, with cities like Dublin, Milan, Paris, and Amsterdam benefitting from this shift, gaining skilled employees who moved from London.


It's clear that Brexit has had a substantial effect on The City of London's economy, with financial services output contracting and trade volumes decreasing. In March, Britain’s official budget forecaster (OBR) confirmed its earlier projection that Brexit would cut trade volumes by 15 per cent was “broadly on track.” That is on top of warnings that a shift in chunks of euro derivatives clearing from London to European Union countries is now inevitable.


You say that, overall, there have been 300,000 more payrolled employees working in London than since the Brexit referendum. Whilst this is true, the point you are missing (or deliberately conflating) is that there have still been 40,000 overall job losses in the financial sector despite. The only areas of hiring in the financial sector have been in regulatory compliance, digital transformation, and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives but it does not make up the 40,000 short fall.

There is no report by the City of London stating it has lost 40,000 financial services jobs. There is only a "disaster" statement to that supposed fact by the Mayor of the City which is unsubstantiated by any factual evidence.

The City of London has stated that it is still the #1 world financial centre:

www.reuters.com/world/uk/city-london-remains-top-global-financial-centre-own-survey-2024-01-24/

[wannabee]

Oct 27, 2024 12:54:19 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 27, 2024 10:22:03 GMT Ariel Manto said:

Actually, there is evidence of significant job losses in London following Brexit.

According to reports, the City of London has lost around 40,000 jobs since the UK's exit from the European Union. Compounding that, Britain’s financial services output has contracted by 1% since the end of 2019, according to the same ONS you repeatedly cite, while France and Germany recorded 8% growth and Ireland’s financial sector is up 18%. This figure far exceeds earlier estimates and highlights the impact on London's financial sector, with cities like Dublin, Milan, Paris, and Amsterdam benefitting from this shift, gaining skilled employees who moved from London.


It's clear that Brexit has had a substantial effect on The City of London's economy, with financial services output contracting and trade volumes decreasing. In March, Britain’s official budget forecaster (OBR) confirmed its earlier projection that Brexit would cut trade volumes by 15 per cent was “broadly on track.” That is on top of warnings that a shift in chunks of euro derivatives clearing from London to European Union countries is now inevitable.


You say that, overall, there have been 300,000 more payrolled employees working in London than since the Brexit referendum. Whilst this is true, the point you are missing (or deliberately conflating) is that there have still been 40,000 overall job losses in the financial sector despite. The only areas of hiring in the financial sector have been in regulatory compliance, digital transformation, and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives but it does not make up the 40,000 short fall.

There is no report by the City of London stating it has lost 40,000 financial services jobs. There is only a "disaster" statement to that supposed fact by the Mayor of the City which is unsubstantiated by any factual evidence.

The City of London has stated that it is still the #1 world financial centre:

www.reuters.com/world/uk/city-london-remains-top-global-financial-centre-own-survey-2024-01-24/

The City of London Lord Mayor Professor Michael Mainelli KStJ PhD MPhil BA FCCA FCSI(Hon) FBCS FRSA CITP FIC CMC MEI estimates that the City of London lost just under 40,000 jobs as a result of Brexit which he terms a Disaster 

He is basing this estimate on his years of working in the City and his connections with hundreds of firms through his consultancy firm and his current role as Lord Mayor of City of London 

You disagree with Michael Mainelli because why exactly? Do you have some experience and knowledge of working in the City?

Your link on London's position is out of date.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-new-york-global-financial-centre-122741647.html

There is a Report however, a Government one, that entry to CPTPP will add 0.08% to UK GDP by 2040 and you have not explained as to what basis you are making ridiculous claims.

[mrcoke]

Oct 28, 2024 0:24:59 GMT wannabee said:

Oct 27, 2024 12:54:19 GMT mrcoke said:

There is no report by the City of London stating it has lost 40,000 financial services jobs. There is only a "disaster" statement to that supposed fact by the Mayor of the City which is unsubstantiated by any factual evidence.

The City of London has stated that it is still the #1 world financial centre:

www.reuters.com/world/uk/city-london-remains-top-global-financial-centre-own-survey-2024-01-24/

The City of London Lord Mayor Professor Michael Mainelli KStJ PhD MPhil BA FCCA FCSI(Hon) FBCS FRSA CITP FIC CMC MEI estimates that the City of London lost just under 40,000 jobs as a result of Brexit which he terms a Disaster 

He is basing this estimate on his years of working in the City and his connections with hundreds of firms through his consultancy firm and his current role as Lord Mayor of City of London 

You disagree with Michael Mainelli because why exactly? Do you have some experience and knowledge of working in the City?

Your link on London's position is out of date.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-new-york-global-financial-centre-122741647.html

There is a Report however, a Government one, that entry to CPTPP will add 0.08% to UK GDP by 2040 and you have not explained as to what basis you are making ridiculous claims.

The Lord Mayor Professor Michael Mainelli KStJ PhD MPhil BA FCCA FCSI(Hon) FBCS FRSA CITP FIC CMC MEI statement is totally unsubstantiated. 

I have posted repeated evidence above that shows there has been nothing like amount of jobs lost that he claims. See my posts above, for example:
www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2022/03/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-movement-within-uk-financial-services-sector-stabilises-five-years-on-from-article-50-trigger

No one has posted any factual evidence to contradict my posts. The fact is "project fear" warned 100,000 jobs will be lost and in reality there has been virtually none as the jobs moved to the EU have been replaced by jobs moved from the EU and growth.

As to London's world ranking, I am well aware of London's position which is generally rated at #2, as I have posted many times since Brexit despite constant claims by those opposed to Brexit that London's position would decline. 
The reason I posted the link I did was because it was a report posted by The City of London them selves that they were #1, which I imagine the Lord Mayor is aware of.

[wannabee]

Oct 28, 2024 9:24:02 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 28, 2024 0:24:59 GMT wannabee said:

The City of London Lord Mayor Professor Michael Mainelli KStJ PhD MPhil BA FCCA FCSI(Hon) FBCS FRSA CITP FIC CMC MEI estimates that the City of London lost just under 40,000 jobs as a result of Brexit which he terms a Disaster 

He is basing this estimate on his years of working in the City and his connections with hundreds of firms through his consultancy firm and his current role as Lord Mayor of City of London 

You disagree with Michael Mainelli because why exactly? Do you have some experience and knowledge of working in the City?

Your link on London's position is out of date.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-new-york-global-financial-centre-122741647.html

There is a Report however, a Government one, that entry to CPTPP will add 0.08% to UK GDP by 2040 and you have not explained as to what basis you are making ridiculous claims.

The Lord Mayor Professor Michael Mainelli KStJ PhD MPhil BA FCCA FCSI(Hon) FBCS FRSA CITP FIC CMC MEI statement is totally unsubstantiated. 

I have posted repeated evidence above that shows there has been nothing like amount of jobs lost that he claims. See my posts above, for example:
www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2022/03/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-movement-within-uk-financial-services-sector-stabilises-five-years-on-from-article-50-trigger

No one has posted any factual evidence to contradict my posts. The fact is "project fear" warned 100,000 jobs will be lost and in reality there has been virtually none as the jobs moved to the EU have been replaced by jobs moved from the EU and growth.

As to London's world ranking, I am well aware of London's position which is generally rated at #2, as I have posted many times since Brexit despite constant claims by those opposed to Brexit that London's position would decline. 
The reason I posted the link I did was because it was a report posted by The City of London them selves that they were #1, which I imagine the Lord Mayor is aware of.

You are missing the point 

Brexit was an event not a happening,  it is not just the initial "Big Bang" to borrow a phrase, but the drip drip Brexit caused Financial institutions to reevaluate their European Operations. The effects have been felt far more outside London which is relatively flat  but especially in Scotland, the reason being Brexit has affected some Financial Sectors more than others as to what Trades they can undertake and with whom.

The 2 1/2 year old EY Analysis focused only on direct jobs that moved from London to EU, it is far more complex than that

If you want a Report try this.

Brexit and ‘missing’ financial services jobs in the United Kingdom

Early estimates made before the UK left the EU, but after the referendum result (i.e. in the Brexit transition period), suggested that in the short term, up to 40,000 jobs could relocate from the UK to other European financial centres whilst over the long term, a further 30–40,000 jobs could relocate when also including jobs closely allied to financial services in legal and professional services (Oliver Wyman, Citation2016). However, most recent employment figures show that these figures overestimated the scale of job relocations from the UK that would happen as a result of Brexit. More recent figures suggest that the number of job relocations stands at closer to 7000 jobs (EY).

However, whilst job relocation figures point to greater resilience within the financial services sector post Brexit than had been predicted, at the same time, employment in financial services according to official statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the number of people employed in financial services has flatlined since the referendum.This comes despite the fact that as of June 2022, 1.06 million people were employed in financial services in the UK. Estimates suggest that if the rate of job creation had followed its pre referendum trend, there would be between 85,000 and 105,000 more people working in financial services New Financial (Citation2022).

This paradox, that fewer jobs appear to have relocated to Europe whilst at the same time fewer jobs have been created has been labelled a ‘curious case’ of ‘missing’ financial jobs (Pooley Rutter, Citation2022). In this paper, we examine these ‘missing’ jobs. We suggest that the jobs figures point to the need to understand the complex intersection of Brexit related changes to UK financial services which are playing out on a sector that is transforming its labour practices more generally in a number of ways, and in ways that are not limited to the UK. We wish to argue that the value of focusing on ‘missing’ jobs is that it moves attention from job relocations of jobs that were previously in the UK to the equally important question of where jobs are being created, what sort of jobs these are and where.

Our analysis identifies two key dynamics that come together to account for ‘missing’ financial services jobs in the UK. First, employment in financial services in the UK since the Brexit referendum has been relatively flat. This follows a trend that started in the wake of the 2007–8 financial crisis (before that, employment in financial services had been growing strongly since the 1980s). However, behind this general finding lies the fact that job growth has been stronger in key European financial centres, notably Paris and Dublin since Brexit, suggesting that reduced market access has impacted UK financial services in a distinctive way. Moreover, this trend is not uniform geographically across the UK. Employment has declined more markedly in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. We suggest that this may reflect the particular sectoral make up of financial services in Scotland and the classificatory issues for jobs in fintech (on which see Lai & Samers, Citation2021) that has grown particularly strongly in Scotland This demonstrates the need for research to consider the impacts of Brexit for financial services across the UK, and not limit analysis to London’s financial district.

Second, analysis of employment impacts needs to include retail and mid and back-office functions in addition to the high value wholesale financial service jobs that often dominate the Brexit debate. The decline in retail finance employment is an important part of the wider narrative but not immediately attributable to Brexit. This includes the declining retail bank branch network across the UK (Leyshon et al., Citation2006) and the growing trend to move mid and back-office functions to cheaper labour markets, notably in Eastern and Southern Europe. Given the complex interplay of these two factors, we suggest that far from being done, Brexit is being played out within a sector that is itself in a period of profound flux and hence it is likely to be some time before the full impacts of Brexit of UK financial services, and their  
consequences for wider economic growth, are fully understood.

Conclusion 

To what extent, then, have financial and relative professional services jobs gone ‘missing’ in the UK? At one level, it is clear that financial services employment growth has been at best muted in the UK and this contrasts with buoyant jobs increases in other parts of the EU post Brexit.

Brexit has led to wider strategic audits by financial services firms of their European operations. Cost cutting objectives have been met partly by beginning to relocate some activity out of the UK to Eastern and Southern Europe whilst other activities, notably in person retail banking, has been cut altogether. Despite it being three years since the end of the transition period, it is clear that we will need more long-term data sets to fully assess the lasting impacts of Brexit on financial services employment. Moreover, we suggest that far from being done, Brexit is being played out within a sector that is itself in a period of profound flux and hence it is likely to be some time before the full impacts of Brexit of UK financial services, and their consequences for wider economic growth, are fully understood 

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21582041.2023.2189294#d1e592

Still no comment on your wild CPTPP predictions I see.

[mrcoke]

Oct 28, 2024 11:19:59 GMT wannabee said:

Oct 28, 2024 9:24:02 GMT mrcoke said:

The Lord Mayor Professor Michael Mainelli KStJ PhD MPhil BA FCCA FCSI(Hon) FBCS FRSA CITP FIC CMC MEI statement is totally unsubstantiated. 

I have posted repeated evidence above that shows there has been nothing like amount of jobs lost that he claims. See my posts above, for example:
www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2022/03/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-movement-within-uk-financial-services-sector-stabilises-five-years-on-from-article-50-trigger

No one has posted any factual evidence to contradict my posts. The fact is "project fear" warned 100,000 jobs will be lost and in reality there has been virtually none as the jobs moved to the EU have been replaced by jobs moved from the EU and growth.

As to London's world ranking, I am well aware of London's position which is generally rated at #2, as I have posted many times since Brexit despite constant claims by those opposed to Brexit that London's position would decline. 
The reason I posted the link I did was because it was a report posted by The City of London them selves that they were #1, which I imagine the Lord Mayor is aware of.

You are missing the point 

Brexit was an event not a happening,  it is not just the initial "Big Bang" to borrow a phrase, but the drip drip Brexit caused Financial institutions to reevaluate their European Operations. The effects have been felt far more outside London which is relatively flat  but especially in Scotland, the reason being Brexit has affected some Financial Sectors more than others as to what Trades they can undertake and with whom.

The 2 1/2 year old EY Analysis focused only on direct jobs that moved from London to EU, it is far more complex than that

If you want a Report try this.

Brexit and ‘missing’ financial services jobs in the United Kingdom

Early estimates made before the UK left the EU, but after the referendum result (i.e. in the Brexit transition period), suggested that in the short term, up to 40,000 jobs could relocate from the UK to other European financial centres whilst over the long term, a further 30–40,000 jobs could relocate when also including jobs closely allied to financial services in legal and professional services (Oliver Wyman, Citation2016). However, most recent employment figures show that these figures overestimated the scale of job relocations from the UK that would happen as a result of Brexit. More recent figures suggest that the number of job relocations stands at closer to 7000 jobs (EY).

However, whilst job relocation figures point to greater resilience within the financial services sector post Brexit than had been predicted, at the same time, employment in financial services according to official statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the number of people employed in financial services has flatlined since the referendum.This comes despite the fact that as of June 2022, 1.06 million people were employed in financial services in the UK. Estimates suggest that if the rate of job creation had followed its pre referendum trend, there would be between 85,000 and 105,000 more people working in financial services New Financial (Citation2022).

This paradox, that fewer jobs appear to have relocated to Europe whilst at the same time fewer jobs have been created has been labelled a ‘curious case’ of ‘missing’ financial jobs (Pooley Rutter, Citation2022). In this paper, we examine these ‘missing’ jobs. We suggest that the jobs figures point to the need to understand the complex intersection of Brexit related changes to UK financial services which are playing out on a sector that is transforming its labour practices more generally in a number of ways, and in ways that are not limited to the UK. We wish to argue that the value of focusing on ‘missing’ jobs is that it moves attention from job relocations of jobs that were previously in the UK to the equally important question of where jobs are being created, what sort of jobs these are and where.

Our analysis identifies two key dynamics that come together to account for ‘missing’ financial services jobs in the UK. First, employment in financial services in the UK since the Brexit referendum has been relatively flat. This follows a trend that started in the wake of the 2007–8 financial crisis (before that, employment in financial services had been growing strongly since the 1980s). However, behind this general finding lies the fact that job growth has been stronger in key European financial centres, notably Paris and Dublin since Brexit, suggesting that reduced market access has impacted UK financial services in a distinctive way. Moreover, this trend is not uniform geographically across the UK. Employment has declined more markedly in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. We suggest that this may reflect the particular sectoral make up of financial services in Scotland and the classificatory issues for jobs in fintech (on which see Lai & Samers, Citation2021) that has grown particularly strongly in Scotland This demonstrates the need for research to consider the impacts of Brexit for financial services across the UK, and not limit analysis to London’s financial district.

Second, analysis of employment impacts needs to include retail and mid and back-office functions in addition to the high value wholesale financial service jobs that often dominate the Brexit debate. The decline in retail finance employment is an important part of the wider narrative but not immediately attributable to Brexit. This includes the declining retail bank branch network across the UK (Leyshon et al., Citation2006) and the growing trend to move mid and back-office functions to cheaper labour markets, notably in Eastern and Southern Europe. Given the complex interplay of these two factors, we suggest that far from being done, Brexit is being played out within a sector that is itself in a period of profound flux and hence it is likely to be some time before the full impacts of Brexit of UK financial services, and their  
consequences for wider economic growth, are fully understood.

Conclusion 

To what extent, then, have financial and relative professional services jobs gone ‘missing’ in the UK? At one level, it is clear that financial services employment growth has been at best muted in the UK and this contrasts with buoyant jobs increases in other parts of the EU post Brexit.

Brexit has led to wider strategic audits by financial services firms of their European operations. Cost cutting objectives have been met partly by beginning to relocate some activity out of the UK to Eastern and Southern Europe whilst other activities, notably in person retail banking, has been cut altogether. Despite it being three years since the end of the transition period, it is clear that we will need more long-term data sets to fully assess the lasting impacts of Brexit on financial services employment. Moreover, we suggest that far from being done, Brexit is being played out within a sector that is itself in a period of profound flux and hence it is likely to be some time before the full impacts of Brexit of UK financial services, and their consequences for wider economic growth, are fully understood 

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21582041.2023.2189294#d1e592

Still no comment on your wild CPTPP predictions I see.

So "lost" has now changed to "missing", which means the UK would have a lot more FS jobs had we remained in the EU.

So admit it there has been no reduction in FS jobs.

I pointed out my post that the regions FS services jobs had increased.

www.thecityuk.com/our-work/enabling-growth-across-the-uk-2024/ I also stated FS companies were restructuring and jobs had moved to the EU,  7,000 by the last estimate as I linked. It may be 2.5 years old but it is the latest publication earlier this year. There is no report of anymore jobs list since.

I also posted a link stating over 1,000 EU FS companies in the EU were opening offices in the UK, mainly London.

There are persistent claims by those opposed to Brexit which are not substantiated by actual facts, just conjecture. We have full employment, high job vacancies despite high immigration, lowest unemployment since the 1970s, higher wage increases than inflation, lower inflation than the BoE target. Looking at the state of some EU economies, it's a good job we left! If Reeves has a "Black hole", Macron has a "black chasm "!

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 28, 2024 12:19:06 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 28, 2024 11:19:59 GMT wannabee said:

You are missing the point 

Brexit was an event not a happening,  it is not just the initial "Big Bang" to borrow a phrase, but the drip drip Brexit caused Financial institutions to reevaluate their European Operations. The effects have been felt far more outside London which is relatively flat  but especially in Scotland, the reason being Brexit has affected some Financial Sectors more than others as to what Trades they can undertake and with whom.

The 2 1/2 year old EY Analysis focused only on direct jobs that moved from London to EU, it is far more complex than that

If you want a Report try this.

Brexit and ‘missing’ financial services jobs in the United Kingdom

Early estimates made before the UK left the EU, but after the referendum result (i.e. in the Brexit transition period), suggested that in the short term, up to 40,000 jobs could relocate from the UK to other European financial centres whilst over the long term, a further 30–40,000 jobs could relocate when also including jobs closely allied to financial services in legal and professional services (Oliver Wyman, Citation2016). However, most recent employment figures show that these figures overestimated the scale of job relocations from the UK that would happen as a result of Brexit. More recent figures suggest that the number of job relocations stands at closer to 7000 jobs (EY).

However, whilst job relocation figures point to greater resilience within the financial services sector post Brexit than had been predicted, at the same time, employment in financial services according to official statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the number of people employed in financial services has flatlined since the referendum.This comes despite the fact that as of June 2022, 1.06 million people were employed in financial services in the UK. Estimates suggest that if the rate of job creation had followed its pre referendum trend, there would be between 85,000 and 105,000 more people working in financial services New Financial (Citation2022).

This paradox, that fewer jobs appear to have relocated to Europe whilst at the same time fewer jobs have been created has been labelled a ‘curious case’ of ‘missing’ financial jobs (Pooley Rutter, Citation2022). In this paper, we examine these ‘missing’ jobs. We suggest that the jobs figures point to the need to understand the complex intersection of Brexit related changes to UK financial services which are playing out on a sector that is transforming its labour practices more generally in a number of ways, and in ways that are not limited to the UK. We wish to argue that the value of focusing on ‘missing’ jobs is that it moves attention from job relocations of jobs that were previously in the UK to the equally important question of where jobs are being created, what sort of jobs these are and where.

Our analysis identifies two key dynamics that come together to account for ‘missing’ financial services jobs in the UK. First, employment in financial services in the UK since the Brexit referendum has been relatively flat. This follows a trend that started in the wake of the 2007–8 financial crisis (before that, employment in financial services had been growing strongly since the 1980s). However, behind this general finding lies the fact that job growth has been stronger in key European financial centres, notably Paris and Dublin since Brexit, suggesting that reduced market access has impacted UK financial services in a distinctive way. Moreover, this trend is not uniform geographically across the UK. Employment has declined more markedly in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. We suggest that this may reflect the particular sectoral make up of financial services in Scotland and the classificatory issues for jobs in fintech (on which see Lai & Samers, Citation2021) that has grown particularly strongly in Scotland This demonstrates the need for research to consider the impacts of Brexit for financial services across the UK, and not limit analysis to London’s financial district.

Second, analysis of employment impacts needs to include retail and mid and back-office functions in addition to the high value wholesale financial service jobs that often dominate the Brexit debate. The decline in retail finance employment is an important part of the wider narrative but not immediately attributable to Brexit. This includes the declining retail bank branch network across the UK (Leyshon et al., Citation2006) and the growing trend to move mid and back-office functions to cheaper labour markets, notably in Eastern and Southern Europe. Given the complex interplay of these two factors, we suggest that far from being done, Brexit is being played out within a sector that is itself in a period of profound flux and hence it is likely to be some time before the full impacts of Brexit of UK financial services, and their  
consequences for wider economic growth, are fully understood.

Conclusion 

To what extent, then, have financial and relative professional services jobs gone ‘missing’ in the UK? At one level, it is clear that financial services employment growth has been at best muted in the UK and this contrasts with buoyant jobs increases in other parts of the EU post Brexit.

Brexit has led to wider strategic audits by financial services firms of their European operations. Cost cutting objectives have been met partly by beginning to relocate some activity out of the UK to Eastern and Southern Europe whilst other activities, notably in person retail banking, has been cut altogether. Despite it being three years since the end of the transition period, it is clear that we will need more long-term data sets to fully assess the lasting impacts of Brexit on financial services employment. Moreover, we suggest that far from being done, Brexit is being played out within a sector that is itself in a period of profound flux and hence it is likely to be some time before the full impacts of Brexit of UK financial services, and their consequences for wider economic growth, are fully understood 

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21582041.2023.2189294#d1e592

Still no comment on your wild CPTPP predictions I see.

So "lost" has now changed to "missing", which means the UK would have a lot more FS jobs had we remained in the EU.

So admit it there has been no reduction in FS jobs.

I pointed out my post that the regions FS services jobs had increased.

www.thecityuk.com/our-work/enabling-growth-across-the-uk-2024/ I also stated FS companies were restructuring and jobs had moved to the EU,  7,000 by the last estimate as I linked. It may be 2.5 years old but it is the latest publication earlier this year. There is no report of anymore jobs list since.

I also posted a link stating over 1,000 EU FS companies in the EU were opening offices in the UK, mainly London.

There are persistent claims by those opposed to Brexit which are not substantiated by actual facts, just conjecture. We have full employment, high job vacancies despite high immigration, lowest unemployment since the 1970s, higher wage increases than inflation, lower inflation than the BoE target. Looking at the state of some EU economies, it's a good job we left! If Reeves has a "Black hole", Macron has a "black chasm "!

You're constantly conflating opinions for facts.

The ONS says that financial services jobs have been lost in the City. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported job losses in the financial services sector since Brexit. According to a House of Commons report, around 7,000 jobs may have been lost in the financial services sector due to Brexit, although some reports claim it to be higher at around 40,000. 


The only which is clear is that Brexit has had an impact on the financial services sector, and that the full extent of the job losses is still being assessed.

[wannabee]

Oct 28, 2024 19:20:05 GMT Ariel Manto said:

Oct 28, 2024 12:19:06 GMT mrcoke said:

So "lost" has now changed to "missing", which means the UK would have a lot more FS jobs had we remained in the EU.

So admit it there has been no reduction in FS jobs.

I pointed out my post that the regions FS services jobs had increased.

www.thecityuk.com/our-work/enabling-growth-across-the-uk-2024/ I also stated FS companies were restructuring and jobs had moved to the EU,  7,000 by the last estimate as I linked. It may be 2.5 years old but it is the latest publication earlier this year. There is no report of anymore jobs list since.

I also posted a link stating over 1,000 EU FS companies in the EU were opening offices in the UK, mainly London.

There are persistent claims by those opposed to Brexit which are not substantiated by actual facts, just conjecture. We have full employment, high job vacancies despite high immigration, lowest unemployment since the 1970s, higher wage increases than inflation, lower inflation than the BoE target. Looking at the state of some EU economies, it's a good job we left! If Reeves has a "Black hole", Macron has a "black chasm "!

You're constantly conflating opinions for facts.

The ONS says that financial services jobs have been lost in the City. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported job losses in the financial services sector since Brexit. According to a House of Commons report, around 7,000 jobs may have been lost in the financial services sector due to Brexit, although some reports claim it to be higher at around 40,000. 


The only which is clear is that Brexit has had an impact on the financial services sector, and that the full extent of the job losses is still being assessed.

Yea but that doesn't compare to Mr Cokes imagining 

At Brexit Referendum in 000s there were 1,120 Financial Services and Insurance Jobs in UK, at 31st December at end of Transition there were 1,149 and at 31st December 2023 there were 1185 for comparison there were 1,209 at 31st December 2008 when global recession hit. UK Economy has stagnated since global recession not helped by Austerity and Brexit 

With population increase you'd expect Job numbers to increase not decrease 

Gawd knows who the 1,000 EU Financial Services Companies are employing they must be one man and his dog operations 

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jws7/lms

[numpty40]

Always makes me smile whenever there are issues with the UK economy it's down to Brexit but when EU countries have a few problems, other issues are at play😁

www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/car-sales-decline-germany-demand-192729675.html%23:~:text%3DOver%2520the%2520year%2520to%2520date,sentiment%2520among%2520consumers%2520and%2520businesses.&ved=2ahUKEwjlrYWHjrKJAxUfYEEAHbg-OFkQFnoECBEQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0TYWZreuwVtYApysEI97uc

[mrcoke]

Oct 28, 2024 21:32:53 GMT wannabee said:

Oct 28, 2024 19:20:05 GMT Ariel Manto said:

You're constantly conflating opinions for facts.

The ONS says that financial services jobs have been lost in the City. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported job losses in the financial services sector since Brexit. According to a House of Commons report, around 7,000 jobs may have been lost in the financial services sector due to Brexit, although some reports claim it to be higher at around 40,000. 


The only which is clear is that Brexit has had an impact on the financial services sector, and that the full extent of the job losses is still being assessed.

Yea but that doesn't compare to Mr Cokes imagining 

At Brexit Referendum in 000s there were 1,120 Financial Services and Insurance Jobs in UK, at 31st December at end of Transition there were 1,149 and at 31st December 2023 there were 1185 for comparison there were 1,209 at 31st December 2008 when global recession hit. UK Economy has stagnated since global recession not helped by Austerity and Brexit 

With population increase you'd expect Job numbers to increase not decrease 

Gawd knows who the 1,000 EU Financial Services Companies are employing they must be one man and his dog operations 

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jws7/lms

The graph on the link you posted exactly proves my argument:

There has been no loss or reduction in jobs according to the ONS, they have essentially flatlined since 2010, but are actually higher this year than at the time of the referendum.

Yes we know some jobs have been moved to the EU, so clearly they have been "replaced" by EU companies setting up offices in the UK, or growth of UK businesses.

Your theory that jobs should have increased due to increased population does not hold true. The financial industry, notably banks have been shedding thousands of jobs for many years.
See this graph for Europe:
www.statista.com/statistics/940990/number-of-bank-staff-in-europe/#:~:text=Overall%2C%20as%20of%20the%20end

You also appear to be in denial about EU financial services companies setting up offices in London.
"1,476 EU-based companies had applied for recognition under the Temporary Permission Regime"

"The highest number of applications came from financial sector companies in Ireland (230), followed by France (186), Germany (168), Cyprus (151), the Netherlands (106) and Luxembourg (101). "

"The data also showed that more than 100 retail and wholesale banks planned to move to, or boost their data presence in the UK, in addition to more that 400 insurance and insurer intermediary firms."

source: www.relocatemagazine.com/eu-finance-firms-rush-to-open-uk-offices-dsapsted-0221

[mrcoke]

Oct 25, 2024 22:21:13 GMT wannabee said:

Oct 25, 2024 21:33:43 GMT mrcoke said:

I agree with your posts, particularly regarding the UK's continued trade with the EU.

There is a constant false impression given by remainers that leaving the EU means an end to trading with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. The EU will continue to be the UK's major trading partner, including many joint ventures. That is why the EU agreed such a generous trade agreement.

The major EU countries are major investors in the UK economy and it often seems to me that they have more confidence on the UK economy that many of those opposed to Brexit who seem to have little faith in the UK. For example, in 2022, the inward stock of foreign direct investment in the UK from France was £114.8 billion.

As the EU is the UK's major customer it is very unfortunate that Germany's economy has stagnated as it does not help UK exports to there. The UK needs the EU economy to thrive just as its other export customers like the US.

The CPTPP will be about the same size as the EU after the UK joins, but the main difference is its members are growing faster than the EU which is far more developed. Indonesia is now expected to join which in time will be a major world economy, possibly the 4th largest in the world by 2045.

The CPTPP growth rate has been typically >8% pa, more than twice the EU rate. CPTPP will quickly grow to much larger then the EU.

Unlike the EU, member states of the CPTPP retain their sovereignty, and trade agreements are very much one to one between members, where tariffs and quotas can be reduced or removed. So the UK will join the CPTPP on the same trade terms agreed with members that it has already negotiated (e.g. Australia, New Zealand, Japan), or the same terms rolled over from EU membership, apart from Malaysia and Brunei. CPTPP terms are a fallback.

The UK trade agreement with the EU is quite unique in having no quotas or tariffs, but as we are all aware there is masses of red tape. EU trade agreements are far from truly free having over 13,000 tariffs, innumerable quotas, and interminable red tape on imports from RoW.

Unlike the EU, the CPTPP does not see itself as a regulatory superpower enforcing all members to comply with a universal set of regulations, and a customs barrier with the rest of the world. There is no additional layer of government, no Court, no Parliament, no common customs tariff for imports from outside the group, nor a 32,000 employees Commission. It is purely a trade organisation, like many others around the world, that is focused on promoting market-driven economies and the elimination of tariffs and other trade barriers.

Neither is the CPTPP like the EU on a path to ever closer union gradually emasculating individual member countries' sovereignty.

An example of the potential offered to UK traders is Mexico, which is the 12th largest economy in the world and growing strongly with a huge population whose living standards are rising fast. The Mexico middle class is growing strongly which is important as that is the customer base for many UK exports such as high value goods and services. But Mexico is only the UK's 38th largest trading partner, which is a prime example of how the UK has missed out on potential trade growth whilst trapped inside the EU customs barrier and the EU Commission being the sole authority to negotiate the UK's trading agreements with other countries. Since leaving the EU, the annual trade growth with Mexico was almost 12% in 2023.

The UK rolled over trade agreement with Mexico from EU membership contains a score or more of quotas on eggs products, fruits and juices, vegetables, fish, and even chewing gum. There are all manner of tariffs on goods such as 16% of some honeys. These were included to protect the EU from cheaper foreign food imports to protect the CAP. The present agreement has quotas on UK exports to Mexico such as dairy products including cheese, and tariffs such as up to 75% on some meats, chocolate and sugar confectionery.

The UK is now in the process of negotiating a new one to one agreement with Mexico with a view to reducing and eliminating quotas, tariffs and other restrictions carried over from the EU agreement and facilitating increased exports.

But it is not solely about trade per se. UK's membership of CPTPP bolsters the group's resistance to China's expansionism in the far east, and strengthens our relationship with Japan. It provides an opportunity to reduce the UK's dependence on the EU for food, which will diminish as a future supply source, and spreads the UK's dependency generally. Chile and Peru have access to crucial metals, including copper, gold and lithium, which are essential for the UK’s resilience, security and energy ambitions. CPTPP membership also makes the UK a more attractive country to invest in with strong links with the other 12 members, providing a gateway to one of the world's largest trade groups, even ironically for the EU members' businesses.

Just one question Mr Coke, if UK now has access to all these fast growing Economies, why was the Conservative Government Economic Assessment that it would only add £2Bn or 0.08% to GDP by 2040?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-impact-assessment/impact-assessment-of-the-uks-accession-to-the-cptpp-executive-summary-web-version#:~:text=Accession%20to%20CPTPP%20is%20estimated,growth%20relative%20to%20the%20baseline.

The government civil service use established formulae for forecasting trade growth based on trade pattern theory such as the gravity model. These methods are historic and cannot be reliably used for forecasting because the world is in rapid change.

They are largely based on historic trade of bulk goods such as raw material, oil and other energy sources, and bulk products and semi-products like steel and other metals, fabrics, plastics, etc. These are still large contributors to world trade but not UK trade any longer.

The world is changing towards trade in finished goods like cars, airplanes, pharmaceuticals, and to trade in services. Transport costs and distances have far less impact on trade of these types of products. Even distance is now less of an issue for tourism, which now accounts for circa 10% of world GDP and the third largest world export after fuel and chemicals. Fuel will decline rapidly as renewables grow.

Other factors include the rapid increase in wealth of societies around the world and the impact of the internet which are changing society's purchasing habits

Lai and Trefler reported in 2002 that the gravity model does not perform as well in explaining the growth of trade. This is not surprising as despite models being constantly updated trade patterns are changing every year due to the impacts of world events, change in government policy, new technology, trade agreements (even dare I say Brexit!), social change, etc. Who predicted the decline in Germany's exports for the last two years whilst most countries' trade is increasing?

The rapid growth of China's economy and export trade over the last 4 decades following the Chinese Communist Party adopting its Decision on the Reform of the Economic System in October 1984 would not have been predicted by gravity theory. Today, China is a major exporter of cars which was not conceivable a relatively short time ago. In 4 years China's car exports have ballooned from less than 1 million in 2020 to c.5 million in 2023, which is more than any year Germany has ever achieved. That cannot be explained by gravity theory. It is due to political and commercial action, just as tariffs and quota inhibit trade.

UK trade is shifting rapidly from goods to services. The UK is the second largest exporter of services in the world and the largest net exporter of financial services in the world. The remaining UK goods exports products are very much high value added. Apart from industry and foreign governments buying defence equipment, UK export customers are now very much the "middle classes", i.e. those with disposable income. In the developing world in countries like Mexico, South Korea, Malaysia, etc. there is rapid growth of the middle classes, much faster than population growth. Consequently the UK's potential export market is increasing even more rapidly than population growth. But it is one thing to increase potential and another to take advantage of it. Civil servants have no way of reliably predicting to what degree UK business will seize the opportunities. Politicians are the ones who make rash unsubstantiated claims and forecasts, not civil servants.

The forecasting of the future performance of the UK economy is consistently under stated by the OBR, World Bank (New York based) and OECD (Paris based). Since before the referendum the UK economic performance has consistently been better than these organizations have predicted, apart from the pandemic and war in Ukraine impacts.

Equally some of the forecasts by Brexit supporting economists are wildly exaggerated, but I will spare you quoting them. The truth is no one knows. What I believe is that the UK will be better off in the long run managing all its own affairs than having trade deals dictated by the EU Commission in Brussels

Secondly there is no way of measuring the barrier the UK suffered being a member of the EU. The argument that trade deals already exists does not hold water as the deals are full of quotas, tariffs, red tape, etc. These barriers in both directions inhibit trade. The government report takes no effect of trade liberalisation into account. Australia have point blank refused to agree any deal with the EU because of all the conditions demanded by the EU and they laugh at the deal New Zealand has done with the EU. The UK trade with Australia is relatively low currently due to decades of EU barriers, but it now increasing rapidly. Exports to Australia grew by £2.2 billion or 17.7% in 2023 and services exports grew by 22.2%. How much will they grow over the next 16 years to 2040?

There is no way of predicting this type of growth and government officials cannot make any defensible forecast. However as trade volume increases, unit costs decrease, facilitating even faster growth and a snowballing effect. The UK and Australia are now working closely on a Strategic Innovation Dialogue, focused on health and biotechnology, battery technology, AI, and offshore wind, which was not happening when the UK was in the EU.

I have previously posted similar impressive trade growth with the the North American countries. UK annual exports have increased by US: 9.3%, Canada: 10.1%, and Mexico: 15.3% in 2023 over 2022. When did we last, or ever, see growth like that with any EU member country? We can only be optimistic about future growth of trade with the rapidly growing members of the CPTPP. The major exception being Japan, whose economy is shrinking and with whom we already have a post Brexit revised trade agreement.

Another factor not discussed at length is imports. By removing import quotas and tariffs, imports will be cheaper, reducing inflation. This will make life difficult for some sections of UK society, notably farmers, but overall society will be better off and the economy improved.

Finally it should be remembered that governments do very little trading apart from buying defence products. Their role is to facilitate. It's businesses and entrepreneurs that build trade and how do you predict what success they will have? It is a certain truth that the CPTPP will grow to a very large size, dwarfing the EU in the future. It is not a certainty that UK business will take advantage of that growth; there is no guarantee. However I have faith in the UK entrepreneurial spirit and talent and my prediction is UK business will be highly successful.

[wannabee]

Oct 28, 2024 23:22:37 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 25, 2024 22:21:13 GMT wannabee said:

Just one question Mr Coke, if UK now has access to all these fast growing Economies, why was the Conservative Government Economic Assessment that it would only add £2Bn or 0.08% to GDP by 2040?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-impact-assessment/impact-assessment-of-the-uks-accession-to-the-cptpp-executive-summary-web-version#:~:text=Accession%20to%20CPTPP%20is%20estimated,growth%20relative%20to%20the%20baseline.

The government civil service use established formulae for forecasting trade growth based on trade pattern theory such as the gravity model. These methods are historic and cannot be reliably used for forecasting because the world is in rapid change.

They are largely based on historic trade of bulk goods such as raw material, oil and other energy sources, and bulk products and semi-products like steel and other metals, fabrics, plastics, etc. These are still large contributors to world trade but not UK trade any longer.

The world is changing towards trade in finished goods like cars, airplanes, pharmaceuticals, and to trade in services. Transport costs and distances have far less impact on trade of these types of products. Even distance is now less of an issue for tourism, which now accounts for circa 10% of world GDP and the third largest world export after fuel and chemicals. Fuel will decline rapidly as renewables grow.

Other factors include the rapid increase in wealth of societies around the world and the impact of the internet which are changing society's purchasing habits

Lai and Trefler reported in 2002 that the gravity model does not perform as well in explaining the growth of trade. This is not surprising as despite models being constantly updated trade patterns are changing every year due to the impacts of world events, change in government policy, new technology, trade agreements (even dare I say Brexit!), social change, etc. Who predicted the decline in Germany's exports for the last two years whilst most countries' trade is increasing?

The rapid growth of China's economy and export trade over the last 4 decades following the Chinese Communist Party adopting its Decision on the Reform of the Economic System in October 1984 would not have been predicted by gravity theory. Today, China is a major exporter of cars which was not conceivable a relatively short time ago. In 4 years China's car exports have ballooned from less than 1 million in 2020 to c.5 million in 2023, which is more than any year Germany has ever achieved. That cannot be explained by gravity theory. It is due to political and commercial action, just as tariffs and quota inhibit trade.

UK trade is shifting rapidly from goods to services. The UK is the second largest exporter of services in the world and the largest net exporter of financial services in the world. The remaining UK goods exports products are very much high value added. Apart from industry and foreign governments buying defence equipment, UK export customers are now very much the "middle classes", i.e. those with disposable income. In the developing world in countries like Mexico, South Korea, Malaysia, etc. there is rapid growth of the middle classes, much faster than population growth. Consequently the UK's potential export market is increasing even more rapidly than population growth. But it is one thing to increase potential and another to take advantage of it. Civil servants have no way of reliably predicting to what degree UK business will seize the opportunities. Politicians are the ones who make rash unsubstantiated claims and forecasts, not civil servants.

The forecasting of the future performance of the UK economy is consistently under stated by the OBR, World Bank (New York based) and OECD (Paris based). Since before the referendum the UK economic performance has consistently been better than these organizations have predicted, apart from the pandemic and war in Ukraine impacts.

Equally some of the forecasts by Brexit supporting economists are wildly exaggerated, but I will spare you quoting them. The truth is no one knows. What I believe is that the UK will be better off in the long run managing all its own affairs than having trade deals dictated by the EU Commission in Brussels

Secondly there is no way of measuring the barrier the UK suffered being a member of the EU. The argument that trade deals already exists does not hold water as the deals are full of quotas, tariffs, red tape, etc. These barriers in both directions inhibit trade. The government report takes no effect of trade liberalisation into account. Australia have point blank refused to agree any deal with the EU because of all the conditions demanded by the EU and they laugh at the deal New Zealand has done with the EU. The UK trade with Australia is relatively low currently due to decades of EU barriers, but it now increasing rapidly. Exports to Australia grew by £2.2 billion or 17.7% in 2023 and services exports grew by 22.2%. How much will they grow over the next 16 years to 2040?

There is no way of predicting this type of growth and government officials cannot make any defensible forecast. However as trade volume increases, unit costs decrease, facilitating even faster growth and a snowballing effect. The UK and Australia are now working closely on a Strategic Innovation Dialogue, focused on health and biotechnology, battery technology, AI, and offshore wind, which was not happening when the UK was in the EU.

I have previously posted similar impressive trade growth with the the North American countries. UK annual exports have increased by US: 9.3%, Canada: 10.1%, and Mexico: 15.3% in 2023 over 2022. When did we last, or ever, see growth like that with any EU member country? We can only be optimistic about future growth of trade with the rapidly growing members of the CPTPP. The major exception being Japan, whose economy is shrinking and with whom we already have a post Brexit revised trade agreement.

Another factor not discussed at length is imports. By removing import quotas and tariffs, imports will be cheaper, reducing inflation. This will make life difficult for some sections of UK society, notably farmers, but overall society will be better off and the economy improved.

Finally it should be remembered that governments do very little trading apart from buying defence products. Their role is to facilitate. It's businesses and entrepreneurs that build trade and how do you predict what success they will have? It is a certain truth that the CPTPP will grow to a very large size, dwarfing the EU in the future. It is not a certainty that UK business will take advantage of that growth; there is no guarantee. However I have faith in the UK entrepreneurial spirit and talent and my prediction is UK business will be highly successful.

I think the Gravity Crocodile should remain in sole possession of Benjamin Biscuit 

As usual there is so much to unpick from your bogus predictions I'm unwilling to spend hours doing so. I'll just stick with the para I've highlighted 

This is the crazy theory of Professor Patrick Minford, unfortunately there are quacks in every profession. Minford was one of the very few Economists who supported Brexit, overwhelmingly Economists didn't, for very good reasons. Minford also happened to be the only Economist that Liz Truss could name as a supporter of her bizarre Budget and its tragic outcome on the UK Economy. This was unsurprising as the octogenarian Minford was also a wholehearted supporter of Thatchers Monetatist Policies.

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 28, 2024 23:22:37 GMT mrcoke said:

Oct 25, 2024 22:21:13 GMT wannabee said:

Just one question Mr Coke, if UK now has access to all these fast growing Economies, why was the Conservative Government Economic Assessment that it would only add £2Bn or 0.08% to GDP by 2040?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-impact-assessment/impact-assessment-of-the-uks-accession-to-the-cptpp-executive-summary-web-version#:~:text=Accession%20to%20CPTPP%20is%20estimated,growth%20relative%20to%20the%20baseline.

The government civil service use established formulae for forecasting trade growth based on trade pattern theory such as the gravity model. These methods are historic and cannot be reliably used for forecasting because the world is in rapid change.

They are largely based on historic trade of bulk goods such as raw material, oil and other energy sources, and bulk products and semi-products like steel and other metals, fabrics, plastics, etc. These are still large contributors to world trade but not UK trade any longer.

The world is changing towards trade in finished goods like cars, airplanes, pharmaceuticals, and to trade in services. Transport costs and distances have far less impact on trade of these types of products. Even distance is now less of an issue for tourism, which now accounts for circa 10% of world GDP and the third largest world export after fuel and chemicals. Fuel will decline rapidly as renewables grow.

Other factors include the rapid increase in wealth of societies around the world and the impact of the internet which are changing society's purchasing habits

Lai and Trefler reported in 2002 that the gravity model does not perform as well in explaining the growth of trade. This is not surprising as despite models being constantly updated trade patterns are changing every year due to the impacts of world events, change in government policy, new technology, trade agreements (even dare I say Brexit!), social change, etc. Who predicted the decline in Germany's exports for the last two years whilst most countries' trade is increasing?

The rapid growth of China's economy and export trade over the last 4 decades following the Chinese Communist Party adopting its Decision on the Reform of the Economic System in October 1984 would not have been predicted by gravity theory. Today, China is a major exporter of cars which was not conceivable a relatively short time ago. In 4 years China's car exports have ballooned from less than 1 million in 2020 to c.5 million in 2023, which is more than any year Germany has ever achieved. That cannot be explained by gravity theory. It is due to political and commercial action, just as tariffs and quota inhibit trade.

UK trade is shifting rapidly from goods to services. The UK is the second largest exporter of services in the world and the largest net exporter of financial services in the world. The remaining UK goods exports products are very much high value added. Apart from industry and foreign governments buying defence equipment, UK export customers are now very much the "middle classes", i.e. those with disposable income. In the developing world in countries like Mexico, South Korea, Malaysia, etc. there is rapid growth of the middle classes, much faster than population growth. Consequently the UK's potential export market is increasing even more rapidly than population growth. But it is one thing to increase potential and another to take advantage of it. Civil servants have no way of reliably predicting to what degree UK business will seize the opportunities. Politicians are the ones who make rash unsubstantiated claims and forecasts, not civil servants.

The forecasting of the future performance of the UK economy is consistently under stated by the OBR, World Bank (New York based) and OECD (Paris based). Since before the referendum the UK economic performance has consistently been better than these organizations have predicted, apart from the pandemic and war in Ukraine impacts.

Equally some of the forecasts by Brexit supporting economists are wildly exaggerated, but I will spare you quoting them. The truth is no one knows. What I believe is that the UK will be better off in the long run managing all its own affairs than having trade deals dictated by the EU Commission in Brussels

Secondly there is no way of measuring the barrier the UK suffered being a member of the EU. The argument that trade deals already exists does not hold water as the deals are full of quotas, tariffs, red tape, etc. These barriers in both directions inhibit trade. The government report takes no effect of trade liberalisation into account. Australia have point blank refused to agree any deal with the EU because of all the conditions demanded by the EU and they laugh at the deal New Zealand has done with the EU. The UK trade with Australia is relatively low currently due to decades of EU barriers, but it now increasing rapidly. Exports to Australia grew by £2.2 billion or 17.7% in 2023 and services exports grew by 22.2%. How much will they grow over the next 16 years to 2040?

There is no way of predicting this type of growth and government officials cannot make any defensible forecast. However as trade volume increases, unit costs decrease, facilitating even faster growth and a snowballing effect. The UK and Australia are now working closely on a Strategic Innovation Dialogue, focused on health and biotechnology, battery technology, AI, and offshore wind, which was not happening when the UK was in the EU.

I have previously posted similar impressive trade growth with the the North American countries. UK annual exports have increased by US: 9.3%, Canada: 10.1%, and Mexico: 15.3% in 2023 over 2022. When did we last, or ever, see growth like that with any EU member country? We can only be optimistic about future growth of trade with the rapidly growing members of the CPTPP. The major exception being Japan, whose economy is shrinking and with whom we already have a post Brexit revised trade agreement.

Another factor not discussed at length is imports. By removing import quotas and tariffs, imports will be cheaper, reducing inflation. This will make life difficult for some sections of UK society, notably farmers, but overall society will be better off and the economy improved.

Finally it should be remembered that governments do very little trading apart from buying defence products. Their role is to facilitate. It's businesses and entrepreneurs that build trade and how do you predict what success they will have? It is a certain truth that the CPTPP will grow to a very large size, dwarfing the EU in the future. It is not a certainty that UK business will take advantage of that growth; there is no guarantee. However I have faith in the UK entrepreneurial spirit and talent and my prediction is UK business will be highly successful.

How on earth do you close the circle of rationale around you consistently saying that UK government forecasts are unreliable....up until the point you need them to back an argument you are making? 

The whole point is that the UK, EU and global markets more broadly have accepted that the City (UK) has lost both jobs in the financial sector and trade more generally as a direct result of Brexit. Even you own stats back this up.

As has been previously mentioned, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and others have stated that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy.  Trade volumes with the EU have been affected by new rules, paperwork, and checks on goods, which has led to a decline in exports to the EU and an overall reduction in trade. On top of that, the UK's total trade volume has fallen relative to the size of its economy, and we have seen a decrease in foreign direct investment which has directly contributed to job losses and economic challenges.

[foghornsgleghorn]

x.com/implausibleblog/status/1850908257369416006

[Ariel Manto]

Oct 29, 2024 22:15:41 GMT foghornsgleghorn said:

x.com/implausibleblog/status/1850908257369416006

I can't help thinking that Johnson is rapidly turning into Rowley Birkin at this stage.

[mtrstudent]

Oct 29, 2024 7:54:54 GMT Ariel Manto said:

The whole point is that the UK, EU and global markets more broadly have accepted that the City (UK) has lost both jobs in the financial sector and trade more generally as a direct result of Brexit. Even you own stats back this up.

As has been previously mentioned, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and others have stated that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy.  Trade volumes with the EU have been affected by new rules, paperwork, and checks on goods, which has led to a decline in exports to the EU and an overall reduction in trade. On top of that, the UK's total trade volume has fallen relative to the size of its economy, and we have seen a decrease in foreign direct investment which has directly contributed to job losses and economic challenges.

I'm always nervous about comparing things like GDP over a year or two and then using that to say whether a politician or a thing is good or bad. It just seems like GDP is affected by loads of things?

Like GDP could have grown by 3%/year, but then let's say the politicians did something like burn a big pile of money* that made it only grow 1%/year. All the people who support pointlessly burning money could say "look! Burning money didn't hurt the economy, it's grown 1% each year since we started burning it, so burning money is good!"



*actually maybe that would boost GDP in the short term since it's work? Just imagine a dumb thing that hurts growth.

[mrcoke]

Oct 30, 2024 2:12:46 GMT mtrstudent said:

Oct 29, 2024 7:54:54 GMT Ariel Manto said:

The whole point is that the UK, EU and global markets more broadly have accepted that the City (UK) has lost both jobs in the financial sector and trade more generally as a direct result of Brexit. Even you own stats back this up.

As has been previously mentioned, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and others have stated that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy.  Trade volumes with the EU have been affected by new rules, paperwork, and checks on goods, which has led to a decline in exports to the EU and an overall reduction in trade. On top of that, the UK's total trade volume has fallen relative to the size of its economy, and we have seen a decrease in foreign direct investment which has directly contributed to job losses and economic challenges.

I'm always nervous about comparing things like GDP over a year or two and then using that to say whether a politician or a thing is good or bad. It just seems like GDP is affected by loads of things?

Like GDP could have grown by 3%/year, but then let's say the politicians did something like burn a big pile of money* that made it only grow 1%/year. All the people who support pointlessly burning money could say "look! Burning money didn't hurt the economy, it's grown 1% each year since we started burning it, so burning money is good!"



*actually maybe that would boost GDP in the short term since it's work? Just imagine a dumb thing that hurts growth.

I don't know about burning money, but you are correct that GDP should not be compared over short periods. The capitalist system is cyclical, with good years when growth is good followed by inflation which means governments have to tighten their budgets. It used to be called "stop-go". Furthermore different countries are at different points in their own cycle and out of step, usually it is the US that leads the cycle and other countries follow. Then there is the disturbances created by world effects such as the pandemic, wars, energy crises, etc. Different countries are impacted to different degrees by these affects. In the case of energy there are losers and winners, like Canada in the last energy crisis. The UK was severely impacted by the pandemic because of the Johnson's government slowness to act, despite the lessons to be seen what happened in Italy. Merkel managed the pandemic much better.

The period before the 2008 crash is a case in point where governments allowed reckless lending and borrowing in the financial markets. 

Turning to Brexit, those opposed repeatedly compare UK economic performance just before leaving the EU and afterwards, assuming the pandemic affected everyone the same. But the UK economy was recovering from the 2008 economic crisis and coming out out recession and austerity during the second decade of the century. The growth of GDP was much better during the 2010 to 2019 period than the previous 20 years. If you extend long term graphs over many decades you see steeper growth, usually driven by lack of financial prudence by government, followed by a sharp downward correction, then a steep recovery. In 2018 and 2019 the UK was achieving record exports. If you extend the graph post 2020 and continue to achieve the growth that Brexit opponents claim would have happened if the UK had remained in the EU with their doppelgangers and counterfactuals, then UK growth would have been the highest in the G7 and better than the US which is quite frankly nonsense.