Brexit 4th Year Half 1 Review (30.8.2024)
Summary
The government claim they have inherited an economic mess, but it's government that is in a financial mess with huge debt and a budget deficit. The UK economy is actually doing quite well.
The UK economy continued to prosper in the first half of 2024 with UK GDP combined growth at 1.3%, the best overall performance of all the G7 economies, and better than the EU, Eurozone, and OECD mean performances. (See section A1)
Full employment continued with a record number of people in work, and average wage increases exceeding inflation and at the highest rate this century. Average real wage growth is at a higher level than the average of any decade during EEC/EU membership. (See section A2.)
Unemployment continued at its lowest level in half a century, (See section A3.)
Inflation dropped to the second lowest in the G7. (See section A4.)
Trade is flat-lining but progress on new trading agreements progressed. (See section A5)
Despite the much higher interest rates, investment as a % GDP is still at the same level as it was at the time of the referendum. Foreign Direct Investment into the UK is growing unlike the rest of Europe where it is falling. (See section A6)
Section B reviews many of the changes, events, and reports that have taken place this year, and the UK's world standing.
Preamble
This is the twelfth post in a series of posts listed in Appendix 1, where I endeavour to report UK economic performance and events since the UK left the EU. This post reviews the first half of 2024.
Brexit is essentially political more than economic, and government decisions are now firmly in the hands of the UK parliament, which is the right place and not some foreign land. I have held off from posting Brexit progress during the general election campaign as I did not want my posts to be regarded as a "party political broadcast".
It was in 1845 that Palmerston said,
“We have no eternal alliances, we have only eternal interests.” The interests of England and Wales were not served by EU membership. The economic costs of a huge negative balance of payments with the EU and 47 years of net financial contribution were the root causes of the UK steady decline in GDP per capita relative to other developed countries leading to increased inequality and poverty. The UK has had consistently the worst investment in the G7 during EU membership but has instead funded investment in other countries' economies and the huge bureaucracy that is the EU. (See my last post above.)
A. UK Economic Performance.
A1 GDP Growth 2024 Q1 (Ref. 1)
G7: UK* 0.7%, Canada 0.4%, US 0.4%, Italy 0.3%, France 0.3%, Germany 0.2%, Japan -0.6%
Other countries: Euro area 0.3%, EU 0.3%
* On 28th June the ONS revised up UK GDP from a first estimate increase of 0.6%. (Ref. 2)
GDP Growth 2024 Q2 (Ref. 1)
G7: Japan 0.8%, US 0.7%, UK 0.6%, Canada 0.5%, France 0.3%, Italy 0.2%, Germany -0.1%,
Other countries: Euro area 0.3%, EU 0.3%
Other countries (Ref. 3): Ireland 1.2%, Netherlands 1%, Spain 0.8%
UK GDP growth was the highest in the G7 in the first quarter and third highest in the second quarter.
UK GDP in 2023 in terms of current US$ was $3.34 trillion, an annual increase of 8%. (Ref. 4) This growth compares with US 6.3%, Germany 9.3%, Japan -1%, France 9%, Italy 8.7%, Canada -0.9%
The question is repeatedly raised as to how the UK economy has performed since the Brexit referendum. According to the World Bank data, measured in US$, the growth from 2016 to 2023 are:
US 46%, Canada 40%, Germany 29%, UK 24%, France 23%, Italy 20%, Japan -16% (Ref. 5)
Since the UK's last year of EU membership in 2019, the G7 economies growth to 2023 were:
US 27%, Canada 23%, UK* 17%, Germany 15%, Italy 12%, France 11%, Japan -18% (*Ref. 6)
Whilst dampened by last year's mild recession triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequential high inflation and interest rates, UK Corporate profits are recovering and much higher since leaving the EU. (Ref. 7)
A2 Employment and Income
The number of people employed is at record levels. (Ref. 8)
Since the referendum the number of payroll employees has increased by 2.5 million, whilst the number of self employed reduced by 0.5 million due to a drop of 0.8 million as a consequence of the pandemic and government policy.
The UK employment rate rose to record levels not seen since World War 2 after the referendum, due to the sharp drop in immigration from the EU. (Ref. 9)
Post Covid and leaving the EU, the employment rate has remained at a level higher than at any time during EEC/EU membership despite being impacted by high immigration of relatives, refugees, and foreign students, record levels of young people staying on in further education, (now exceeding 50% for the first time), high levels of long term sickness, and many over 50s not returning to full time employment post pandemic. (10)
High immigration is filling job vacancies but they are still at a level not seen before the pandemic. (Ref. 11)
Earnings Growth.
Earnings Annual Growth Rate June 2024 (Ref. 12)
G7: Italy 7.9%, US 7.02%, UK 5.8%, Germany 5.3%, Canada 3.8%, France 3.8%, Japan 1%
Other countries: Netherlands 6.94%, Spain 4.03%, EU 3.8%, Euro zone 3.1%
At 5.8% UK average pay increases are at the highest rate seen this century. (Ref. 13)
Real Wage Growth, i.e. Earnings Growth - Inflation rate June 2024
G7: Italy 7.1%, US 4.02%, UK 3.8%, Germany 3.1%, France 1.6%, Canada 1.1%, Japan -1.8%
Other countries: Netherlands 3.74%, EU 1.2%, Spain 0.63%, Euro zone -0.6%
Reference 14 shows real average wage earnings excluding bonuses since January 2001 and the decline during the first decade of this century. It is a fact though that real wages have been falling since the UK joined the EU in the 1970s. In the 1970s and 1980s, real wages growth averaged at 2.9%, but fell to 1.5% in the 1990s and 1.2% in the 2000s. (Ref. 15)
Foreign workers can now only come to the UK to fill needed jobs not being sufficiently filled by UK citizens or if employers pay meets the wage criteria. The standard Skilled Worker Visa minimum salary is now £38,700 and £15.88 per hour, where no salary discounts are applicable.
Brexit has certainly been a boon to many UK workers. The new government is recognising that it has to match government employees salaries to the private sector to sustain public services.
A3. Unemployment June 2024 (Ref. 16)
G7: Japan 2.5%, US 4.1 %, UK 4.2%, Germany 6%, Canada 6.4%, Italy 7%, France 7.3%
Other countries: Netherlands 3.6%, EU 6%, Euro area 6.5%, Spain 11.27%
UK unemployment continues to be at levels not seen since the early 1970s and with stopping freedom of movement in the EU, any future UK governments will be able to sustain low unemployment by setting the criteria higher to qualify for immigration to take work in the UK, which also promotes higher wage growth. (Ref. 17)
UK unemployment averaged 1.4% in the 1950s, 2.0% in the 60s, and 3.1% in the first half of the 1970s. The UK then joined the EEC and unemployment in the second half of the 1970s averaged 5.6%, increasing to 10.4% during Thatcher's 80s, followed by c.8.5% in the 90s, c.5.1% in the 00s till the 2008 financial crisis, and c.8% in 2010 to 2013. Unemployment then started to decline due to a number of factors including: firstly the growth of east European economies reducing migration to the UK, but primarily due to the referendum result markedly reducing EU migration to the UK. Secondly, the pandemic caused many foreign nationals to return to their homelands, and finally leaving the EU stopped freedom of movement. (Ref. 18)
UK unemployment was lower prior to joining the EEC and after voting to leave the EU than at any time during membership. This is not surprising; Burrage showed in 2015 that since the start of the Single Market, its 12 founder members had a distinctively higher rates of both unemployment and of long-term unemployment, when compared with 10 independent mainly OECD countries, and most especially when compared with non-member European economies, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. (Ref. 19)
The EU is a capitalist organization run in the interests of big business. It claims to have high employment standards but they are not significantly better than Australia, Canada, or New Zealand and many EU countries fail to enforce EU standards, particularly in Eastern Europe, but even in Italy. (Ref. 20)
Redundancies have followed the same pattern as unemployment rates since the referendum, which is totally at odds with "project fear", when the Cameron government warned the public that 500,000 jobs would be lost if the UK left the EU. (Ref. 21) Ending freedom of movement has had just the opposite effect. UK job vacancies since coming out of the pandemic have been the highest in UK history despite record immigration in recent years. (Ref. 22)
Leaving the EU has and will continue to increase real wages, reduce unemployment and reduce redundancies. It will result in true levelling up and reduce inequality that has grown during EU membership as described in the paper by Stone, Trisi, Sherman, and Beltrán (Ref. 23)
The EU policies and rulings are driven by 25,000 lobbyists (some say over 30,000) representing multinationals. (Ref. 24) The tech industry alone spends over €113 million lobbying in Brussels (Ref. 25) A lot of the lobbyists come through the revolving doors from jobs with the EU. (Ref.26)
The UK is best out of the EU for most people in our society but particularly the poorest and low paid.. I acknowledge that many in our society benefited from EU membership, including London, Scotland, Northern Ireland, those with (second) homes in, or work in, or for, or sell to the EU countries, etc. However it was at the expense of the rest of the UK society; it certainly was not at the EU's expense who enjoyed 47 years of the UK's net financial contributions (See page 11 of reference 27) and a huge positive trade balance with the UK, which is the EU's "Treasure Island".
A4 Inflation June 2024 (Ref. 28)
G7: Italy 0.8%, UK 2%, France 2.2%, Germany 2.2%, Canada 2.7%, Japan 2.8%, US 3%.
Other countries: Euro area 2.5%, EU 2.6%, Netherlands 3.2%, Spain 3.4%
UK inflation during the year to June dropped to the second lowest in the G7, behind Italy, and is low compared to many European countries which average above the UK.
But what about actual prices? Despite the peak inflation that the UK has been through during the past couple of years, the UK is still not in the top dozen countries in Europe for the cost of living, being ranked 15th highest out of 42. (Ref. 29)
As the BBC reported in June 2023 when they compared 23 food and non-food items at the height of inflation in March, UK prices were actually fourth highest of the 6 largest EU economies. (Ref. 30)
A5 Trade
UK trade has generally flat-lined in 2024 compared to 2023 with a slight increase in services exports and slight reduction in goods exports in the 12 months to June compared with 2023. (Ref. 31)
The UK continues to be a world force in trade being not just one of the largest and fourth biggest exporter but also one of the most diverse. (Ref. 32)
Exports to the EU have declined but this is hardly surprising as Germany, the UK's largest EU export customer, has experienced negative GDP growth in four of the last seven quarters and the annual growth rate has been negative in the last four quarters. Germany's imports have been declining steeply since August 2022 (Ref. 33) and whilst this is largely attributable to the cost of energy it also reflects the stagnant state of the German economy.(Ref. 34)
The picture is little better in the Netherlands, the UK's third largest trading partner, which has had negative growth in five of the last seven quarters, although it has picked up in the last quarter. The Netherlands like the UK is very much a global country and has a very strong economy for its size, consistently punching above its weight. (Ref. 35)
In March the UK signed a trade pact with Texas. This is the eight and largest such agreement to be signed to date with an American state which has the second largest US state economy, and is larger than Italy's economy. (Ref. 36)
Trade with the US is flourishing with a 9.3% increase in exports in 2023. During the past decade since 2014, UK exports to the US have more than doubled, but more importantly the trade balance has doubled to a net £72 billion in 2023. (Ref. 37)
Meanwhile trade with America's fellow North American G7 member Canada also continues to flourish. UK exports to Canada have also doubled in the last 10 years, but more importantly the trade balance has changed from a deficit of £2.3 bn in 2014 to a positive balance of £6.7 bn in 2023. (Ref. 38)
So trade is flourishing with North America but there has been no progress on full blown free trade agreements, which was something Obama made quite clear, before the referendum, was not going to happen quickly, and continues to be the case with the subsequent "America first" presidents Trump and Biden and Canada's increasingly unpopular PM.
Progress has been made in the Far East. In May the UK ratified its accession to the CPTPP prior to the dissolution of parliament . The existing 11 members of the CPTPP represent over 13% of the world's GDP and are mostly growing fast. The Accession Protocol entered into force after 6 CPTPP members and the U.K. ratify the Agreement. On completion, over 99% of current UK goods exports to CPTPP members will be eligible for tariff-free trade, which is not the case with the carried over EU negotiated trade deals. Peru was the sixth country to ratify in August. Consequently the UK could be uniquely placed in the long term with having tariff and quota free trade with both the EU and CPTPP. Last year the share of the EU in the global GDP, based on purchasing-power-parity, amounted to an estimated 14.46%. Consequently when the UK (2.3% world GDP p-p-p) membership of the CPTPP comes into effect, the CPTPP will overtake the EU to become the third largest trade grouping after the RCEP and the USMCA.
New PM Starmer has repeatedly stated that he intends to renegotiate the FTA with the EU. Legislation proposed includes the Product Safety and Metrology Bill, which will make it easier for the UK to recognise new EU product regulations to prevent businesses from being laden with extra costs by updating UK law. The bill also ensures the UK “
can end recognition of EU product regulations, where it is in the best interests of UK businesses and consumers”. The bill will preserve the UK's status as a global leader in product regulation by enabling the UK government to make the sovereign choice to mirror or diverge from updated EU rules. The key issue is that UK sovereignty is retained and that British law is not subject to change by a foreign power. I have posted before that much EU law is good law and it would be stupid to "throw out the baby in the bath water" .
The objective is clearly to improve trade with the EU and I hope Starmer succeeds, but I would suggest the the swing to nationalism in the EU nations makes that a tall order and the EU Commission is used to getting its own way and will demand large concessions from the UK such as freedom of movement of the unemployed youth of the EU which is extremely high in some EU countries. It should be borne in mind that the UK does have some leverage with the EU. In 2023 the United States was the top destination for EU goods with a 19.7% share of the total exports, followed by the UK (13%) in second place, overtaking China (8.8%). Some people however put too much credence on the value of trade with the EU or the effectiveness of the single market, membership of which was actually damaging to the UK as I have posted at length in a previous post. (Ref. 39) The UK has restored its sovereignty to establish improved trading relationships with the whole of the world including the EU, but that is clearly going to take time.
A6 Finance
Investment
High interest rates to dampen inflation have impacted on investment. Hopefully reduction in the base rate will promote borrowing to invest. Despite the much higher interest rates, investment as a % GDP is still at the same level as the time of the referendum. (Ref. 40)
British investors added a record £11.4 billion into equity funds over the first six months of 2024, according to fund network Calastone, who reported the flows into stocks were the highest for a half-year period in Calastone's 10-year records. (Ref. 41)
In July, Ernst & Young reported that the UK recorded 985 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in 2023, up 6% from 2022 The UK remains second to France in EY’s annual ranking of European countries by their ability to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects and was the only country in the top three to see project numbers increase year-on-year. (Ref. 42)
It should be remembered that those opposed to Brexit said FDI to the UK would fall by 22% if the UK left the EU. (Ref. 43)
In point of fact Europe as a whole recorded a 4% year-on-year decline with a total of 5,694 projects recorded in 2023. This was the continent’s lowest FDI total since 2020 and was 11% lower than its pre-pandemic level (6,412) and 14% lower than 2017 (6,653). 2017 represented Europe’s highest peak for projects in the last decade. Contrary to anti Brexit forecasts UK's project total grows as Europe’s falls. (Ref. 44)
EY had earlier reported that the number of financial services FDI projects across Europe reached 329 in 2023, an increase of 13% from 2022. The UK was the strongest performing European market again in 2023, recording 108 financial services projects, an increase of 42% from 2022 (Ref. 45)
So much for the project fear forecasts that London would be "battered by Brexit" and 100,000 financial services jobs lost.
In 2023 the UK ranked 3rd in the world for inward FDI stock up from 4th in 2022 at >$65 bn. (Ref. 31)
Investment into the UK’s Build to Rent sector topped £1.3bn in Q2 2024, up 38% year-on-year according to global property consultancy Knight Frank’s latest UK Build to Rent Market Update. This brings the total investment for H1 2024 to just over £2.6bn, surpassing the previous half-year high of £2.3bn in 2021. (Ref. 46) It remains to be seen whether the new Labour government's plans to increase tenants rights will dampen investment in the sector which would have the effect of pushing up rents further.
Whilst the UK does well in financial services and IT investment, more traditional investment in manufacturing and exploiting natural resources struggle due to the UK's demanding planning regulations. A particular example that is relevant at this time with the general shortage of drugs is the barriers to investment in pharmaceutical manufacture, which was recently expressed by Dave Ricks, chief executive of Eli Lilly who told the BBC it is quicker to build in the US and Ireland. (Ref. 47) Hopefully the new government will introduce some sensible relaxation of planning rules.
The last two years have seen two of the highest years for UK gross fixed capital investment at 18% GDP since 1996. This is not as high as the decades prior to the EU formation, and is clearly not nearly high enough, but it is a start. (Ref. 48)
The $1 billion investment in Google’s Waltham Cross data centre demonstrates the world's fourth largest company's ongoing commitment to the UK. It follows other significant assets, such as the US$1 billion acquisition of a Central Saint Giles office in 2022, a development in King’s Cross, and the launch of the Accessibility Discovery Centre in London, the first outside the US. (Ref. 49)
London continues to be Europe's main financial centre. (Ref. 50)
A new report commissioned by the City of London Corporation has ranked London as the world's top financial centre. (Ref. 51)
2024 is set to be one of the best years in the past half decade for business start-ups with 468,000 new firms having started up in the first half of the year, according to the New Startup Index by Beauhurst. (Ref. 52) If this pace is maintained, the annual total will surpass last year’s record figure of 879,000, which itself was up 10.6 per cent from 2022.
The numbers underscore a surge of activity in recent years, with the 248,000 start-ups launched in the first quarter of 2024 marking a 43.4 per cent jump from the same period in 2020. The UK has experienced a significant increase in new businesses since the first quarter of 2020 when the UK left the EU, contrary to all the forecasts in 2016 that Brexit would adversely impact business start-ups.
In H1 2024, UK AI startups raised $2.1 billion and are on track for a record-breaking year. (Ref. 53)
Heineken, has announced that it plans to reopen about 62 of its Star Pubs and Bars arm which had been closed in the last few years. It's also planning a major refurbishment programme involving hundreds more of its venues. The total cost of the renovation project is expected to be around £39 million and will involve work on 612 pubs, while also creating more than a 1,000 jobs.
2024 is a sad year for me to see the end of cokemaking and the end of steel making in the UK. In April British Steel announced they had received planning permission to build an electric arc plant at Teesside. (Ref. 54) Later in April, British Steel announced it had received planning permission to build an electric arc plant in Scunthorpe. (Ref. 55) These represent a £1.25 bn investment.
Tata also announced its intent to shutdown the blast furnaces at Port Talbot and invest in electric arc at some future date subject to financial assistance from the government. The new government announced financial support for local businesses impacted by the shutdowns in August. (Ref. 56)
Finally on the topic of finance, the UK was extremely lucky to get out of the EU when it did. Apart from the increased budget of €248.3 billion (by the end of 2022, up from €204.9 billion in 2021) and the €806.9 billion NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery plan, the UK has escaped being trapped in the proposed Capital Markets Union. More and more power and control being taken to the centre of the EU by unelected bureaucrats. Praise the Lord.
B. Change Enactment
B1. Legislation
New legislation relating to employment law took effect from 6 April 2024 which expanded the rights for employees around flexible working, paid and unpaid leave, and protection from redundancy during parental leave. (Ref. 57)
This action confounds those opposed to Brexit who predicted a lowering of employment standards. Being sovereign, parliament can introduce whatever law it chooses, including raising standards to higher than the EU if it chooses. This is unlike Denmark who announced plans in 2018 to phase out diesel and petrol cars, banning their sale from 2030 onwards, but but it was forced to cancel the idea by the EU Commission because this would have breached EU regulation. (Ref. 58) Denmark were forced to comply with a less ambitious target by the rest of the EU.
B2. Foreign Affairs & World Influence
In March Ukraine has received a $516 million guarantee Growth Foundations Development Policy Loan (DPL) from the United Kingdom through the World Bank mechanism. (Ref. 59)
In April the UK and US made an agreement to work together on testing advanced artificial intelligence. (Ref. 60)
Also in April, the UK Mission to ASEAN and the ASEAN Secretariat launched the ASEAN-UK Economic Integration Programme (EIP) valued at up to £25 million to foster economic growth across the region by tackling development barriers within ASEAN member states and the broader ASEAN Economic Community. (Ref. 61)
In May the last government announced the the UK will be the first European nation to produce advanced nuclear fuel (a market currently dominated by Russia) to help fuel nuclear power plants at home and abroad. (Ref. 62)
In June the 21st edition of the QS World University Rankings. was announced. This year’s annual assessment is the largest ever, including more than 1,500 universities. It was based on the analysis of millions of academic papers and expert opinions. Three of the top 5 ranked world universities are in the UK. (Ref. 63)
In July the new government were quick to agree a new technology security agreement with India. (Ref. 64) and the new Foreign Secretary attended an ASEAN conference committed to "
reconnecting Britain with the world." (Ref. 65)
In July the UK also joined the first global digital trade agreement with 90 other countries negotiated under the WTO. (Ref. 66)
Since the first world war the UK may have slipped to the 6th largest world economy and the 6th military strength ranking but it still remains one of the most influential countries in the world. In February the 5th annual global survey from Brand Finance ranked all 193 member states of the United Nations for the first time, and as usual placed the UK in second place after the United States as the second most influential soft power country in the world. This year, the UK was ranked 7th in
‘strong and stable economy’ compared to last year’s 12th and improved on ‘
politically stable and well governed’ up to 12th from last year’s 16th. (Ref. 67) In 2016, a Financial Times article stated,
“…a risk exists that the UK’s considerable soft-power clout would be significantly diminished should it vote to leave the EU.” It is now 2024 and the UK has the strongest growing economy in the G7 with increased cultural influence in education, sport, popular culture, etc.
The UK world standing depends on a lot more than solely the performance of the government; the growth of education for example has raised the UK's standing in the world. The Legatum Prosperity Index for 2023 has actually moved the UK's position up two places to 12th (of 167 countries) in the world, the second highest of the G7 countries, and higher than 20 EU countries. It is a shame how some of our own citizens call the country a laughing stock and denigrate it when the UK is actually the envy of most of the world. (Ref. 68)
There is no doubt the UK's wealth per capita could be higher if it were not for the costs the UK chooses to expend on defence (2.3% GDP) defending the free world's democracy, foreign aid (0.58% GNI) largely to Africa and Asia, which are significantly higher than say the Netherlands. Also like the Netherlands, the UK also made net contributions to the EEC/EU for 48 years, unlike Ireland for example which from 1973 up to 2018 was a net recipient of over €40 billion in EU funds. If the UK chooses to elect governments that promise not to increase taxes and then defend and give money to other countries, we reap what we sow. We would all be a lot better off if, as a country, we paid a bit more tax and invested it in the country's future. We invested heavily for many years building the Elizabeth Line for it to almost immediately become the UK's busiest railway.
B3. Relations with the EU
In February the UK has signed a new deal with the EU's border agency to work more closely together to stop small boats crossing the English Channel. (Ref. 69)
Starmer has extended goodwill towards the EU to establish a better working relationship, hopefully the EU response will be more positive than the one Cameron received before the referendum.
In August Best Of British announced that the number of British musicians that have played, or are scheduled to play, European festivals during summer 2024 is 18% higher than 2017-2019. After Brexit and Covid restrictions the numbers had dropped significantly. Best for Britain is campaigning for the introduction of a Visa Waiver Agreement with the EU. (Ref. 70) As with other matters such as residency rules there is no reason the UK and the EU cannot reintroduce many of the reciprocal arrangements that existed when the UK was a member.
B4. Defence
In April, Britain and other major European countries with maritime borders on the North Sea signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure, including from possible Russian attacks. (Ref. 71)
In March the UK and Australia agreed a new defence agreement updating the partnership to meet contemporary challenges. (Ref. 72)
B5. Agriculture & Fishing
In February the government announced an additional £6 million match funding for projects developing the catching, processing and aquaculture sectors, and those enhancing the marine environment, under the latest round of the Fisheries and Seafood Scheme. (Ref. 73)
In July Generate Capital announced investment to expand capacity at GrowUp's Kent vertical farm, (Ref. 74)
Appendix 1
Previous Brexit reports:
Life After Brexit (20.11.2021) page 1,429
Review Of First Year Of Brexit (15.2.2022) page 1,440
Review Of First Year Of Brexit - Addendum (27.3.2022) page 1,452
Brexit 2nd Year Progress To Date (22.5.2022) page 1,464
Brexit 2nd Year 2nd Quarter Progress To Date (25.8.2022) page 1,490
Brexit 2nd Year 3rd Quarter Progress To Date (26.11.2022) page 1,508
Brexit 2nd Year (3.4.2023) page 1,530
Brexit 3rd Year Q1 (4.6.2023) page 1,543
Brexit 3rd Year Q2 (8.9.2023) page 1,558
Brexit 3rd Year Q2 Addendum (23.9.2023) page 1,562
Brexit 3rd Year Review (7.4.2024) page 1,579
It should be noted that figures released by governments are subject to later revision. The UK ONS is particularly predisposed to issue "cautious" statistics and then issue a revised improved statistic at a later date. For example on 7th August they issued revised statistics for GDP in 2022. The GDP revised higher in every quarter of the year, and the UK economic growth slowed rather than shrank during Truss débâcle, when there was a 0.1% growth, not a reduction in GDP, as they reported previously. The estimate for GDP rose to 4.8% from 4.3% in 2022, that's a 12% upgrade, which reaffirms the UK had the highest growth in the G7 and higher than the EU in 2022. Little of this adjustment appeared in the British press who are not interested in "yesterday's news". The ONS also said that access to a more extensive dataset could also lead to revisions to its 2023 and 2024 GDP estimates. (Ref. 75)
The Chief Economist at the investment bank Panmure Liberum, commented that the UK’s recovery from the Covid crisis is now “increasingly looking middle of the pack among its G7 peers”, which I demonstrated in section A1 above. (Ref. 76)
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