|
Post by oggyoggy on May 26, 2024 12:56:43 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on May 26, 2024 16:52:29 GMT
It breaks my heart Oggy, it must be one of the most ridiculous examples of a country completely shooting itself in the foot, erm ... ever! When I used to tour manage bands 20 years ago, we'd ruck up at the border post, I'd open the window, hand over 6 or 7 passports and the vast majority of the time, they didn't even look at any of the other passports bar the top one (mine). Often they didn't even count the number of people on the bus. It was only slightly less inconvenient than crossing into Wales. Nowadays, you have to complete a wad of documentation, including VAT and customs paperwork and I've heard horror stories like border patrol counting the number of plectrums a band has got on board, to ensure that the figures tally up when they return. For many small bands, it's virtually impossible to tour in Europe without selling merchandise (primarily for cash) but since Brexit, it has just become impossible to do so, on so many levels.
|
|
|
Post by 4372 on May 26, 2024 18:02:03 GMT
It breaks my heart Oggy, it must be one of the most ridiculous examples of a country completely shooting itself in the foot, erm ... ever! When I used to tour manage bands 20 years ago, we'd ruck up at the border post, I'd open the window, hand over 6 or 7 passports and the vast majority of the time, they didn't even look at any of the other passports bar the top one (mine). Often they didn't even count the number of people on the bus. It was only slightly less inconvenient than crossing into Wales. Nowadays, you have to complete a wad of documentation, including VAT and customs paperwork and I've heard horror stories like border patrol counting the number of plectrums a band has got on board, to ensure that the figures tally up when they return. For many small bands, it's virtually impossible to tour in Europe without selling merchandise (primarily for cash) but since Brexit, it has just become impossible to do so, on so many levels. You were told quite clearly by Mr Coke that this is a "secondary" issue; i.e. of no importance.
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on May 29, 2024 18:58:26 GMT
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on May 29, 2024 20:01:08 GMT
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on May 29, 2024 23:19:36 GMT
Monthly check in.
Still shite.
Rejoin asap.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on May 29, 2024 23:23:42 GMT
Is anyone stupid enough to think they weren’t conned for voting for this?
All the facts were there to show why it was crap.
Nothing has changed.
You were just conned.
Thick.
|
|
|
Post by numpty40 on May 31, 2024 21:40:25 GMT
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on May 31, 2024 22:21:19 GMT
What I don't get with all these currency arguments - do people think a strong pound is good or bad? It seems like people's ideas change depending on which way it's going.
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on May 31, 2024 22:34:56 GMT
I don't wish to make a cheap play on your pseudonym but you make it difficult Your Link was headlined "Pound Sterling at its strongest since the Brexit Carnage" The current exchange rates are ONLY a 15% devaluation against Euro and Dollar since Referendum If you consider that an acceptable outcome you are easily pleased and have a strange concept of success
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on May 31, 2024 22:47:05 GMT
What I don't get with all these currency arguments - do people think a strong pound is good or bad? It seems like people's ideas change depending on which way it's going. Firstly it's not a strong pound it's a very weak pound compared to what it was immediately before Brexit Referendum A weak pound should make Exports cheaper and therefore increase them - it hasn't happened If in doubt refer to Mr Coke bemoaning the negative UK Balance of Trade i.e. UK Imports more than it Exports A weak pound should make Imports more expensive - it has happened
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Jun 1, 2024 0:04:06 GMT
What I don't get with all these currency arguments - do people think a strong pound is good or bad? It seems like people's ideas change depending on which way it's going. Firstly it's not a strong pound it's a very weak pound compared to what it was immediately before Brexit Referendum A weak pound should make Exports cheaper and therefore increase them - it hasn't happened If in doubt refer to Mr Coke bemoaning the negative UK Balance of Trade i.e. UK Imports more than it Exports A weak pound should make Imports more expensive - it has happened I'd read how currency strength affects imports, exports, inflation etc. It just looks complicated to me but people seem really confident it's good or bad when the numbers go up or down. If it's good it just went up a bit, then was it bad when it went down a lot more because of Brexit in 2016?
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2024 0:21:50 GMT
Monthly check in. Still shite. Rejoin asap. I think that would be a terrible idea. Labour would spend 5 years pissing about trying to figure out how to get it done instead of looking at everything else.
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 1, 2024 0:41:35 GMT
Firstly it's not a strong pound it's a very weak pound compared to what it was immediately before Brexit Referendum A weak pound should make Exports cheaper and therefore increase them - it hasn't happened If in doubt refer to Mr Coke bemoaning the negative UK Balance of Trade i.e. UK Imports more than it Exports A weak pound should make Imports more expensive - it has happened I'd read how currency strength affects imports, exports, inflation etc. It just looks complicated to me but people seem really confident it's good or bad when the numbers go up or down. If it's good it just went up a bit, then was it bad when it went down a lot more because of Brexit in 2016? A currencies exchange rate is a reflection of how the Markets perceive the strength of a Countries Economy Immediately after the Brexit Referendum Sterling Tanked as the perception was UK would suffer Economically - it did A weak currency is not a bad thing per se if you want to Increase Exports because they become cheaper to buy - it hasn't happened because non Tariff Barriers (Red Tape) increased the costs of Exporting (to EU) which previously didn't exist For more than 40 years UK Buys/Imports more than it Sells/Exports therefore a weak Currency is not a good thing for UK Economy
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Jun 1, 2024 0:54:23 GMT
A currencies exchange rate is a reflection of how the Markets perceive the strength of a Countries Economy Immediately after the Brexit Referendum Sterling Tanked as the perception was UK would suffer Economically - it did A weak currency is not a bad thing per se if you want to Increase Exports because they become cheaper to buy - it hasn't happened because non Tariff Barriers (Red Tape) increased the costs of Exporting (to EU) which previously didn't exist For more than 40 years UK Buys/Imports more than it Sells/Exports therefore a weak Currency is not a good thing for UK Economy I'm pretty sure the Brexit-caused inflation bump hurt a lot of people, but couldn't you argue that sometimes you import more *because* you got a strong currency somehow? I think also related is Dutch disease? This stuff all fascinates me. I'm interested in hearing from a mix of people who are confident that going up/down is good/bad and why!
|
|
|
Post by tuum on Jun 1, 2024 5:49:53 GMT
Didn't read the article but there are a couple of things that spring to mind. Brexit needed Trump in power if they were to get a deal with the USA as Trump is friendly with Farage and would be inclined to give us a deal. Biden was a disaster for the UK. The bloke thinks he is Irish and the Brits are the ant-christ. This year Trump may well be back in power but Labour will be the Govt in the UK. So, no deal there. Having said all that. Any deal we had with the USA would have been pretty shit for us in my opinion. I don't trust the Tories. The US would have got even more access to our health services and, for sure, we would have lowered our food standards to let them import their shite... and it really is shite! The USA protects the USA. It couldn't give a shit about other countries unless they threaten their interests. I am not sure we have ever got a good deal from the US.I can guarantee you that when it comes time to rebuild Ukraine the normal American companies will be front and centre.. Bechtel, KBR (Haliburton), Fluor etc... the price to pay for America's military support. To be fair, the USA has pumped a shitload into Ukraine compared to the EU. The world and the USA would be a better place if the USA reduced the funding to their military and invested it into their infrastructure. Maybe the EU would take their own security more seriously instead of looking to the US to wipe their arses for them. The UK has been aligning itself with the US for decades. It was the wrong choice. There is no 'special relationship' other than maybe the Five Eyes spying network. We should have been embracing European values. USA culture is toxic.. every man for himself, it's the poor guys own fault he is in the gutter, look at my massive house in a gated community on the country club estate. In general, I like the US and it's people are vety friendly but they have some very hard nosed attitudes towards the more disenfranchised or vulnerable among them... I'll be honest it's mainly the oil and gas workers that I have met from Texas who hold the stronger views. As for their Govt. I genuinely believe they don't give a shit about us. Brexit was just another opportunity for them to hammer home another nail. I wouldn't trust the US govt... but then again, I don't trust ours! Apologies for the rant, and I know it was meandering with no structure and/or consistency but in the words of Sean Lock when he was criticising child actors "you have brought up some issues from my childhood".
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 1, 2024 8:49:00 GMT
A currencies exchange rate is a reflection of how the Markets perceive the strength of a Countries Economy Immediately after the Brexit Referendum Sterling Tanked as the perception was UK would suffer Economically - it did A weak currency is not a bad thing per se if you want to Increase Exports because they become cheaper to buy - it hasn't happened because non Tariff Barriers (Red Tape) increased the costs of Exporting (to EU) which previously didn't exist For more than 40 years UK Buys/Imports more than it Sells/Exports therefore a weak Currency is not a good thing for UK Economy I'm pretty sure the Brexit-caused inflation bump hurt a lot of people, but couldn't you argue that sometimes you import more *because* you got a strong currency somehow? I think also related is Dutch disease? This stuff all fascinates me. I'm interested in hearing from a mix of people who are confident that going up/down is good/bad and why! Yes a strong currency can make Imports more attractive. It's why China has traditionally kept the Yuan artificially low. Bond Rates also affect the currency exchange rate as higher yields will strengthen a currency The UK went through its own "Dutch Disease" in the 1980s/90s although the term wasn't coined until later. The Factors coming together were North Sea Oil, industrial unrest leading to wholesale industry closure and very high unemployment and a boom in Financial Services in the City. It has led to why UK is one of the most unequal Wealth Distribution Countries in the World, only just behind US Much of the benefit of North Sea Oil was frittered away on paying Benefits as at its peak Unemployment reached 12%. Another consequence of replacement of consumption with cheap imports besides the reduction in activity is the "know-how" and improvement in methods is lost and productivity reduces, creating a downward spiral The Dutch Disease can not only affect Manufacturing but Agriculture too, it's why EU maintains CAP for Food Security. It's likely that much of Food produced in EU could be imported cheaper, this would benefit Developing Countries in Africa for instance but Quality and Supply couldn't be guaranteed. UK tends to pursue a different model to import food at the lowest price which of course has a knock-on effect on UK Agriculture.
|
|
|
Post by numpty40 on Jun 1, 2024 19:07:03 GMT
I don't wish to make a cheap play on your pseudonym but you make it difficult Your Link was headlined "Pound Sterling at its strongest since the Brexit Carnage" The current exchange rates are ONLY a 15% devaluation against Euro and Dollar since Referendum If you consider that an acceptable outcome you are easily pleased and have a strange concept of success Following Brexit, remainers and the establishment predicted catastrophic economic collapse. The point of the link was to show that far from economic collapse the UK (much to the disappointment of remainers and establishment) is actually strengthening and also improving against the US Dollar better than all other G10 economies. Since the referendum the UK economy has grown faster than Germany and Italy and the same as France. You're clearly a clever fucker it's just a shame you are also a patronising fucker .
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 1, 2024 20:27:24 GMT
I don't wish to make a cheap play on your pseudonym but you make it difficult Your Link was headlined "Pound Sterling at its strongest since the Brexit Carnage" The current exchange rates are ONLY a 15% devaluation against Euro and Dollar since Referendum If you consider that an acceptable outcome you are easily pleased and have a strange concept of success I. Following Brexit, remainers and the establishment predicted catastrophic economic collapse. 2. The point of the link was to show that far from economic collapse the UK (much to the disappointment of remainers and establishment) is actually strengthening and also improving against the US Dollar better than all other G10 economies. 3. Since the referendum the UK economy has grown faster than Germany and Italy and the same as France. You're clearly a clever fucker it's just a shame you are also a patronising fucker . You made a post about Sterling recovery since Brexit Referendum which was factually incorrect, it was this I replied to. You now make 3 further points 1. There were many lies, predictions and promises made by both sides of the Brexit Debate, very few came to fruition. Sterling collapse did. 2. This is simply not true " Following the latest figures, sterling recovered value. One pound could buy *$1.22 after hitting a six-month low on Wednesday"
* This represents an 18% devaluation against the $ since Brexit Referendum, I don't consider this a recovery, you may. 3. UK left the EU at the end of Transition period in January 2021 a more realistic comparison is since COVID commenced From the same article It means that the UK economy is now expected to have grown by 1.8% between the final quarter of 2019, before the COVID pandemic hit, and the second quarter of this year.
That puts the country's economy ahead of both Germany (0.2%) and France (1.7%) during the same period. But it is still behind Italy (2.1%), Canada (3.5%), Japan (3%) and the US (6.1%). news.sky.com/story/gdp-uk-overtakes-france-and-germany-as-economic-growth-bigger-than-expected-after-covid-12972101As for the people you decry that made predictions of doom and gloom one of the most researched and quoted were OBR the Government Independent Financial Advisors This is what they said then Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have assumed that the volume of UK imports and exports will both be 15 per cent lower than if we had remained in the EU. We assume that the resulting reduction in the trade intensity of GDP will lead to a 4 per cent reduction in the potential productivity of the UK economy (relative to remaining in the EU), with the full effect felt after 15 years. A decline in trade intensity plausibly lowers productivity because trade, among other channels, fosters competition and allows countries to specialise in activities where they are relatively more efficient. This is what they say now (March 2024) Overall, our assumptions about the impact of Brexit appear to be broadly on track and recently published studies are also broadly consistent with these estimates.j However, it remains hard to draw firm conclusions given the challenges of disentangling the simultaneous impacts of Brexit, the pandemic, and other geopolitical developments affecting UK and global trade. Trade data are also volatile and prone to revision, particularly trade in services. Moreover, the full implementation of the TCA will further increase barriers to trade in goods with the EU. We expect the total impact of Brexit to be realised several years after full implementation of these barriers. In the meantime, we will keep our Brexit assumptions under review. The Brexit effect on the Economy is simply a slow degradation
|
|
|
Post by numpty40 on Jun 1, 2024 21:29:54 GMT
|
|
|
Post by thisisouryear on Jun 1, 2024 21:53:33 GMT
Brexit has failed, the party that mainly wanted it haven't got a clue how to make it work. To push for it and have no plan on how to deliver it is unforgivable.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Jun 1, 2024 22:17:01 GMT
So is a stronger currency definitely better? I really don't understand why it's just good or bad on its own.
|
|
|
Post by numpty40 on Jun 1, 2024 22:21:21 GMT
Brexit has failed, the party that mainly wanted it haven't got a clue how to make it work. To push for it and have no plan on how to deliver it is unforgivable. The country wanted it, unfortunately none of the establishment wanted it. Hence this slow labouring acclimatisation to a whole new world that is out there.
|
|
|
Post by numpty40 on Jun 1, 2024 22:38:29 GMT
So is a stronger currency definitely better? I really don't understand why it's just good or bad on its own. We don't produce much in the UK so imports are cheaper and a San Miguel is cheaper when you go abroad. Because we are a service based country as opposed to a manufacturing country I guess a stronger currency suits the UK.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Jun 2, 2024 0:21:21 GMT
So is a stronger currency definitely better? I really don't understand why it's just good or bad on its own. We don't produce much in the UK so imports are cheaper and a San Miguel is cheaper when you go abroad. Because we are a service based country as opposed to a manufacturing country I guess a stronger currency suits the UK. But we export services too. And those get more expensive? Plus if you get stuck with a strong currency then it's hard to even start exporting stuff. So you end up with a constant current account deficit. I think there are pros and cons? I quite like a San Miguel on a hot afternoon though.
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 2, 2024 1:43:40 GMT
So is a stronger currency definitely better? I really don't understand why it's just good or bad on its own. It's neither better or worse it depends on the way your Economy is structured as I said above China pegged the Yuan deliberately low to encourage Exports, the US were particularly unhappy with this and accused them of dumping As I also said above interest rates/yields are a means of controlling a currency exchange rate Today UK 10 year Gilts yields are 4.4%, US 10 year Treasury Bills are 3.8% and 10 year Eurobonds are 3.17% The higher UK yields will attract Investors and strengthen Sterling by Investors essentially buying Sterling Investors also look at the risk factors and the higher UK yields also have the lower UK Credit Rating assigned by the four main Credit Rating Agencies Fitch, Moody's, S&P and DBRS. UK: AA Aa3 AA- AA : US: AAA AA+ AA+ Aaa EU: AAA/Aaa/AAA/AAA
|
|
|
Post by shakermaker on Jun 2, 2024 19:15:00 GMT
ok we re-apply what terms are acceptable ? join the euro ? give up all fishing rights ? transfer all banking decisions to brussels / strasbourg? unlimited immigration ? tax policy at whim of greeks and latvians ? armed forces under the control of french and germans ? civil service and parliament just rubber stamping eu decisions. renege on all the post brexit world trade deals agreed ? before idiots keep on about rejoining why don't they come up with the palatable punishment they are willing to accept that the french etc would dish out ? Even if we get back in, we will never ever get beneficial terms like we used to have, even though we paid more into Europe than we got back. Many Europeans fucking hate us now, as their countries have directly suffered from not getting our cash. I deal with this attitude weekly at work. If anyone was stupid enough to pretend we are going to ”back in”, we would get rinsed. They fucked up Brexit, nothing is really fixed and many deals still need to be agreed. We only just sorted out collaboration between research institutes and science. It’s a right royal mess on all sides. Europe is imploding politically too right now. Crazy times.
|
|
|
Post by thisisouryear on Jun 2, 2024 20:03:46 GMT
Brexit has failed, the party that mainly wanted it haven't got a clue how to make it work. To push for it and have no plan on how to deliver it is unforgivable. The country wanted it, unfortunately none of the establishment wanted it. Hence this slow labouring acclimatisation to a whole new world that is out there. Rishi was very much pro Brexit as is most of the conservative party since Boris had a purge on it. There just doesn't seem to be any sort of plan, they should be brimming with Ideas given it's what they wanted but there's nothing. They shouldn't have been running out of ideas so soon, Brexit has gone stale and it's benefiting nobody, we may as well rejoin the EU
|
|
|
Post by thisisouryear on Jun 2, 2024 20:11:52 GMT
ok we re-apply what terms are acceptable ? join the euro ? give up all fishing rights ? transfer all banking decisions to brussels / strasbourg? unlimited immigration ? tax policy at whim of greeks and latvians ? armed forces under the control of french and germans ? civil service and parliament just rubber stamping eu decisions. renege on all the post brexit world trade deals agreed ? before idiots keep on about rejoining why don't they come up with the palatable punishment they are willing to accept that the french etc would dish out ? Even if we get back in, we will never ever get beneficial terms like we used to have, even though we paid more into Europe than we got back. Many Europeans fucking hate us now, as their countries have directly suffered from not getting our cash. I deal with this attitude weekly at work. If anyone was stupid enough to pretend we are going to ”back in”, we would get rinsed. They fucked up Brexit, nothing is really fixed and many deals still need to be agreed. We only just sorted out collaboration between research institutes and science. It’s a right royal mess on all sides. Europe is imploding politically too right now. Crazy times. Given the war in Ukraine, our armed forces make for a good bargaining chip
|
|
|
Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 3, 2024 7:42:33 GMT
ok we re-apply what terms are acceptable ? join the euro ? give up all fishing rights ? transfer all banking decisions to brussels / strasbourg? unlimited immigration ? tax policy at whim of greeks and latvians ? armed forces under the control of french and germans ? civil service and parliament just rubber stamping eu decisions. renege on all the post brexit world trade deals agreed ? before idiots keep on about rejoining why don't they come up with the palatable punishment they are willing to accept that the french etc would dish out ? Even if we get back in, we will never ever get beneficial terms like we used to have, even though we paid more into Europe than we got back. Many Europeans fucking hate us now, as their countries have directly suffered from not getting our cash. I deal with this attitude weekly at work. If anyone was stupid enough to pretend we are going to ”back in”, we would get rinsed. They fucked up Brexit, nothing is really fixed and many deals still need to be agreed. We only just sorted out collaboration between research institutes and science. It’s a right royal mess on all sides. Europe is imploding politically too right now. Crazy times. Surely if the EU is an organisation which should be mutually beneficial then " they" should not hate us. They should welcome us back into the fold, having seen the error of our ways. No need to hate a partner. Why should we expect a special deal? Surely we should re-enter as fully paid up members. That should mean joining the Euro....the Eurogroup is at the heart of the Union, all members will be required to join in the fullness of time....ever closer union. What's wrong with giving up " our " fishing rights, it's just a case of ' pooling' democracy.....for that matter, if we want to be full members, instead of being half in / half out, what is wrong in allowing ' our' industrial strategy, agricultural strategy, defence strategy, etc being decided from Brussels? Do we really need two Parliaments( which one has precedence?), two sets of MPs, duplicate embassies, separate spokespeople on the world stage eg in respect of Ukraine or Gaza?
|
|