|
Post by smallthorner on Jun 7, 2023 22:40:38 GMT
Mr coke says that this is the Brexit he voted for.
Wow.
|
|
|
Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jun 8, 2023 9:34:39 GMT
As an individual you have no more "sovereignty" than you had before Brexit. We have a voting system that means the majority of voters might as well burn their ballot paper and ensures the largest majority gain control of government. We don't have a written constitution, a hereditary head of state and unlike every European you are a subject not a citizen. A shortfall in "sovereignty" is everything to do with our backward, antiquated political system and nothing to do with the EU. All we have done is given more power to an entitled elite and done the square root of fuck all to address the real issues. Oh and achieving zero effective political change we trashed the economy. All largely true; but I would say the largest minority gain control of government. But for all that, it is no reason to hand over law making and judicial powers to people we have not elected in Brussels (or is it Strasbourg this week?) The problem with PR is you hand over too much power to minority groups who control the balance of power, and you can have unstable government like Italy. Would we be that bad, I don't know, but the farce when May was in power says yes. I agree the EU requires democratic reform and there are quite a few groups arguing that case. However the point stands - leaving the EU has only put more "sovereignty" into the hands of an unrepresentative minority and and unelected elite - it has done nothing to hand "sovereignty" to the majority of people in this country. The whole "sovereignty" argument was a sleight of hand by those who hadn't the slightest intent of addressing the democratic deficit in this country. There are plenty of countries who have stable government under PR. The Tory/Lib Dem government under Cameron and Clegg was perfectly stable and the moderating effect of the Lib Dems kept the swivel eyed loons on the Tory right at bay. In fact things got way worse once the Tories got a majority. The issue with May's government wasn't a problem with coalition - she couldn't get her own dysfunctional party in line.
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Jun 8, 2023 20:51:08 GMT
Question Time tonight - every audience member voted for Brexit.
|
|
|
Post by smallthorner on Jun 8, 2023 21:00:55 GMT
Question Time tonight - every audience member voted for Brexit. Seriously?
|
|
|
Post by toppercorner on Jun 8, 2023 21:05:23 GMT
|
|
|
Post by smallthorner on Jun 8, 2023 21:23:17 GMT
Does he have any clout these days?
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Jun 8, 2023 22:10:35 GMT
Question Time tonight - every audience member voted for Brexit. Seriously? So I was told earlier but it looks like that was nonsense. Ignore me. Apologies. EDIT: Actually it IS going to be the case but it's in 2 weeks time.
|
|
|
Post by smallthorner on Jun 8, 2023 22:24:52 GMT
So I was told earlier but it looks like that was nonsense. Ignore me. Apologies. You were nearly right 😎 It's on in a couple of weeks from Clacton. Full on Brexiteers in the audience giving their thoughts on the outcome. Can't wait.
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Jun 8, 2023 22:51:31 GMT
Any country can join the EU, they need to meet the Copenhagen criteria though. (If you don't know what that says you should find out.) Then there is the little matter of the financial contribution each year.* Latest news today from "Eurozone land" : "The Eurozone has tipped into recession, official data showed on Thursday, after a series of downward revisions.
According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, GDP fell by 0.1% in the first quarter when compared the previous three months, revised down from an earlier estimate for growth of 0.1%.
It follows a 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, meaning the Eurozone economy has now shrunk for two successive quarters, the technical definition of recession. It was originally estimated that fourth-quarter GDP was flat." www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/eurozone-tips-into-recession--13668308.htmlStrange isn't it how EU countries revise down their initial reports on the economy such as: www.fxstreet.com/news/german-final-gross-domestic-product-revised-down-to-03-qoq-in-q1-202305250616Whereas the UK initial estimates of GDP are very cautious by ONS and are subsequently sometimes revised upwards. In January there was an increase of 0.5% revised up from 0.4% in the initial publication. *Edit. I cannot guess what the UK contribution to the EU budget would be, but www.reuters.com/world/europe/billions-euros-eu-funds-misspent-error-fraud-cases-up-auditors-2022-10-12/
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 9, 2023 0:21:48 GMT
Any country can join the EU, they need to meet the Copenhagen criteria though. (If you don't know what that says you should find out.) Then there is the little matter of the financial contribution each year.* Latest news today from "Eurozone land" : "The Eurozone has tipped into recession, official data showed on Thursday, after a series of downward revisions.
According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, GDP fell by 0.1% in the first quarter when compared the previous three months, revised down from an earlier estimate for growth of 0.1%.
It follows a 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, meaning the Eurozone economy has now shrunk for two successive quarters, the technical definition of recession. It was originally estimated that fourth-quarter GDP was flat." www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/eurozone-tips-into-recession--13668308.htmlStrange isn't it how EU countries revise down their initial reports on the economy such as: www.fxstreet.com/news/german-final-gross-domestic-product-revised-down-to-03-qoq-in-q1-202305250616Whereas the UK initial estimates of GDP are very cautious by ONS and are subsequently sometimes revised upwards. In January there was an increase of 0.5% revised up from 0.4% in the initial publication. *Edit. I cannot guess what the UK contribution to the EU budget would be, but www.reuters.com/world/europe/billions-euros-eu-funds-misspent-error-fraud-cases-up-auditors-2022-10-12/Tut Tut Mr Coke surely you wouldn't wish to be accused of reporting Fake or Misleading News? I really don't understand why you are reporting on a Grouping that UK were never a member so therefore never left The "Technical Recession" you are reporting relates to the Eurozone I.e. those Countries that use the Euro as a Common Currency. Incidentally primarily driven by Germany's Economy the external Country most effected by Ukraine War, which you also blame on most on UKs ills. The EU Economy which UK did leave, without ever being a member of Eurozone, increased by 0.1% in Q1 2023 exactly the same percentage as UK Economy and has not entered a recession The essential difference is that the EU Economy increased by 2.5% since the *Covid Pandemic while the UK Economy contracted by 0.5% *Please don't bother posting anymore convoluted nonsense as to when Covid began as the UKs own Governments Statistics the ONS (which you have just quoted as a reliable source) clearly count from end of Q4 2019
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 9, 2023 3:05:16 GMT
The announcement during Rishi's visit to US of the grandiose titled "Atlantic Declaration" is a final admission that a Brexit Promise and Tory 2019 Manifesto Pledge of a US/UK Trade Deal is a busted flush
The details are oblique but implicit is acceptance of Biden's centrepiece legislation the IRA Inflation Reduction Act.
Quite what Brexiteers/Tory’s will make of this will be interesting as the IRA is clearly protectionist where they are Globalists, America First if you like, but gives UK Companies limited access to certain crumbs from the $379 Billion Aid Package, but obviously not access to the EU counter offer of €250 Billion package under the Green Deal Industrial Plan GDIP
Quite how this can help UK Companies is unclear to me as the US Package is based on Tsx Credits which can only be earned against US Profits
|
|
|
Post by Davef on Jun 9, 2023 6:55:37 GMT
So I was told earlier but it looks like that was nonsense. Ignore me. Apologies. You were nearly right 😎 It's on in a couple of weeks from Clacton. Full on Brexiteers in the audience giving their thoughts on the outcome. Can't wait. "Full on Brexiteers"... No, people who voted to leave the EU who may either think they still made the correct decision or regret it. You may as well call the red wall voters who voted Conservative at the last election "Full on Tories". Labour will be relying on many of those people to change their minds if they want to win the next election. Should be interesting though.
|
|
|
Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jun 9, 2023 7:53:33 GMT
Any country can join the EU, they need to meet the Copenhagen criteria though. (If you don't know what that says you should find out.) Then there is the little matter of the financial contribution each year.* Latest news today from "Eurozone land" : "The Eurozone has tipped into recession, official data showed on Thursday, after a series of downward revisions.
According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, GDP fell by 0.1% in the first quarter when compared the previous three months, revised down from an earlier estimate for growth of 0.1%.
It follows a 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, meaning the Eurozone economy has now shrunk for two successive quarters, the technical definition of recession. It was originally estimated that fourth-quarter GDP was flat." www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/eurozone-tips-into-recession--13668308.htmlStrange isn't it how EU countries revise down their initial reports on the economy such as: www.fxstreet.com/news/german-final-gross-domestic-product-revised-down-to-03-qoq-in-q1-202305250616Whereas the UK initial estimates of GDP are very cautious by ONS and are subsequently sometimes revised upwards. In January there was an increase of 0.5% revised up from 0.4% in the initial publication. *Edit. I cannot guess what the UK contribution to the EU budget would be, but www.reuters.com/world/europe/billions-euros-eu-funds-misspent-error-fraud-cases-up-auditors-2022-10-12/The best deal we had was the one we left, through lies and deceit and Russian interference. We will never get that back..
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Jun 9, 2023 7:57:00 GMT
“The Commission has today proposed an annual EU budget of €189.3 billion for 2024. The budget will be complemented by an estimated €113 billion in payments for grants under NextGenerationEU, the EU's post-pandemic recovery instrument.”
- EU Commission statement, 07 Jun 2023 ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3062That's over 300 billion Euros, of which I'm advised 38% will be borrowed. It used to be an EU rule that Brussels did not run up any debt when the UK was a member, but that has changed since the pandemic and the UK leaving. I presume because countries like Germany did not want to incur it and expect the whole of the EU to bear the debt, although how much countries like Greece actually could is debateable. If the UK was a member the budget would be even bigger and on past proportions of UK contribution the UK share of the budget would be circa £30 bn for 2024. Aren't you glad we have left? As for UK trade with the US, 2022 was a record year: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfTrade with the US is growing nicely.
|
|
|
Post by RipRoaringPotter on Jun 9, 2023 8:56:04 GMT
“The Commission has today proposed an annual EU budget of €189.3 billion for 2024. The budget will be complemented by an estimated €113 billion in payments for grants under NextGenerationEU, the EU's post-pandemic recovery instrument.”
- EU Commission statement, 07 Jun 2023 ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3062That's over 300 billion Euros, of which I'm advised 38% will be borrowed. It used to be an EU rule that Brussels did not run up any debt when the UK was a member, but that has changed since the pandemic and the UK leaving. I presume because countries like Germany did not want to incur it and expect the whole of the EU to bear the debt, although how much countries like Greece actually could is debateable. If the UK was a member the budget would be even bigger and on past proportions of UK contribution the UK share of the budget would be circa £30 bn for 2024. Aren't you glad we have left? As for UK trade with the US, 2022 was a record year: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfTrade with the US is growing nicely. How does that figure compare to pre-pandemic trade between the UK and US? Also be interesting know the volume of trade between the two, as with inflation you could (in theory) have a 23% increase in the value of goods being traded but the volume remains exactly the same.
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 9, 2023 9:33:32 GMT
“The Commission has today proposed an annual EU budget of €189.3 billion for 2024. The budget will be complemented by an estimated €113 billion in payments for grants under NextGenerationEU, the EU's post-pandemic recovery instrument.”
- EU Commission statement, 07 Jun 2023 ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3062That's over 300 billion Euros, of which I'm advised 38% will be borrowed. It used to be an EU rule that Brussels did not run up any debt when the UK was a member, but that has changed since the pandemic and the UK leaving. I presume because countries like Germany did not want to incur it and expect the whole of the EU to bear the debt, although how much countries like Greece actually could is debateable. If the UK was a member the budget would be even bigger and on past proportions of UK contribution the UK share of the budget would be circa £30 bn for 2024. Aren't you glad we have left? As for UK trade with the US, 2022 was a record year: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfTrade with the US is growing nicely. How does that figure compare to pre-pandemic trade between the UK and US? Also be interesting know the volume of trade between the two, as with inflation you could (in theory) have a 23% increase in the value of goods being traded but the volume remains exactly the same. You make an excellent point Rip In 2019 I.e. Pre-pandemic Exports and Imports to US were $69Bn and $63Bn respectively In 2022 they were $77Bn and $64Bn respectively This is an increase of 11.5% Exports and 1.5% Imports In the period 2020 to 2022 UK Cumulative Inflation was 18.0% So in real terms Exports to US have declined 6.5% and Imports by 16.5% Hardly surprising when you consider UK GDP has yet to recover to Pre-pandemic levels www.statista.com/statistics/218280/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-united-kingdom-since-2004/iamkate.com/data/uk-inflation/
|
|
|
Post by starkiller on Jun 9, 2023 11:57:11 GMT
The EU is an utterly evil organisation, and now partnering with another utterly evil organisation - The WHO. For more control and interference into your life.
And the UK is still firmly attached to both of these globalist mafia underboss groups.
|
|
|
Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jun 9, 2023 14:11:15 GMT
|
|
|
Post by phileetin on Jun 9, 2023 14:27:31 GMT
Czech , born 1917 , great actor
|
|
|
Post by smallthorner on Jun 9, 2023 15:43:38 GMT
You were nearly right 😎 It's on in a couple of weeks from Clacton. Full on Brexiteers in the audience giving their thoughts on the outcome. Can't wait. "Full on Brexiteers"... No, people who voted to leave the EU who may either think they still made the correct decision or regret it. You may as well call the red wall voters who voted Conservative at the last election "Full on Tories". Labour will be relying on many of those people to change their minds if they want to win the next election. Should be interesting though. Nit picking or what🙃 The point is the red wall voters can change their minds in 18 months. The Brexiteers have made a decision that cannot be reversed in the near future.
|
|
|
Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jun 9, 2023 16:21:59 GMT
"Full on Brexiteers"... No, people who voted to leave the EU who may either think they still made the correct decision or regret it. You may as well call the red wall voters who voted Conservative at the last election "Full on Tories". Labour will be relying on many of those people to change their minds if they want to win the next election. Should be interesting though. Nit picking or what🙃 The point is the red wall voters can change their minds in 18 months. The Brexiteers have made a decision that cannot be reversed in the near future. True. Despite an ever increasing number of them changing their minds about it all www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?removedCameron, Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Farage etc. Any historical political review of 2015 onwards is not going to be kind to them.
|
|
|
Post by smallthorner on Jun 11, 2023 18:02:36 GMT
60% of people now think it was the wrong decision to leave the EU. Wow.
|
|
|
Post by oggyoggy on Jun 13, 2023 7:10:10 GMT
|
|
|
Post by oggyoggy on Jun 13, 2023 7:35:48 GMT
60% of people now think it was the wrong decision to leave the EU. Wow. Who are the 40%!? Inconceivable that anyone who knows anything about the issue could possibly think it was the right decision. But I guess we have a very uneducated electorate
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Jun 13, 2023 11:26:37 GMT
“The Commission has today proposed an annual EU budget of €189.3 billion for 2024. The budget will be complemented by an estimated €113 billion in payments for grants under NextGenerationEU, the EU's post-pandemic recovery instrument.”
- EU Commission statement, 07 Jun 2023 ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3062That's over 300 billion Euros, of which I'm advised 38% will be borrowed. It used to be an EU rule that Brussels did not run up any debt when the UK was a member, but that has changed since the pandemic and the UK leaving. I presume because countries like Germany did not want to incur it and expect the whole of the EU to bear the debt, although how much countries like Greece actually could is debateable. If the UK was a member the budget would be even bigger and on past proportions of UK contribution the UK share of the budget would be circa £30 bn for 2024. Aren't you glad we have left? As for UK trade with the US, 2022 was a record year: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfTrade with the US is growing nicely. How does that figure compare to pre-pandemic trade between the UK and US? Also be interesting know the volume of trade between the two, as with inflation you could (in theory) have a 23% increase in the value of goods being traded but the volume remains exactly the same. In 2021 UK exports to the US were £141.5 bn. In 2022 UK exports to the US were £168.3 bn. That is an increase of 19% as stated at the top of page 3 on the factsheet. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfThe value of £141.5 bn in 2021 equates to £146.55 in 2022 (reference: iamkate.com/data/uk-inflation/ )Consequently equivalent value UK exports to the US increased by 15% last year. That is an excellent performance. In 2020 UK exports to the US were £127.7 bn. equivalent to £129.9 in 2021. Consequently in equivalent value UK exports increased by 9%. If we go back to the year of the referendum, in 2016 UK exports to the US were £109.5 bn. which was equivalent to £129.05 in 2022. Thus exports increased by 30% over 6 years in equivalent value. In my review of 2023 Q1 I stated: "There are repeated references in anti Brexit media that UK exports have not performed as well as peer countries. These reports are often accompanied with a graph showing export trends of various nations which start with a base point of Quarter 4 2019. The reason that start point is chosen is because it was a peak point for UK exports that year, a record year for UK exports, as the final quarter of the calendar year often is. This methodology creates a false impression that the UK has not performed as well as other countries. If Quarter 1, often the weakest quarter for UK exports, was chosen as the base point a completely different picture would be presented, but that is just playing with statistics." Similarly comparisons of GDP performance by those opposed to Brexit constantly compare with 2019. But it is clear that the UK was far more seriously impacted by the pandemic than many other countries. I don't want to start another debate on this thread about the pandemic, but it is clear the UK economy being largely service based was far more impacted by the pandemic than those economies more dependant on goods. Furthermore the UK government managed the pandemic in its initial months far less competently than other countries, as was spelt out at length on this MB on the pandemic thread, and no doubt the public enquiry will show. Consequently UK exports in 2020 were seriously adversely impacted by the pandemic. In the case of the US, it should be noted that two thirds of UK exports to the US are services, resulting in a huge drop in exports in 2020. The distortion in trade figures post pandemic has also occurred in 2022 by the war in Ukraine, which has hugely inflated the two major goods imports from the US, namely gas and oil. (See bottom of page 6 on the factsheet.) STOP PRESSwww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/13/uk-exports-record-worse-than-any-g7-country-except-japan-in-last-decadeThis article highlights the UK export performance during the past decade. The period covered is 2012 to 2021. So the first 8 years of that period the UK was in the EU, and in 2020/1 trade was more seriously impacted by the pandemic. Is someone seriously suggesting the UK should have stayed in the EU because our trade was worse than the rest of the G7 except Japan? There is also the little matter not mentioned that most of the trade by Germany, France, and Italy is in Euros and within the EU. One of the reasons for leaving the EU is the UK will be free to set up our own trade deals with the rest of the world where most UK export trade has been since 2007. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports#:~:text=Exports%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom,Million%20in%20June%20of%201955. If the 10 years is looked at in more detail, it is apparent that UK exports were growing steadily till 2012 (surprise, surprise the 1st year of the period examined!) then plateaued from 2012 to 2016 after which it started to rise more sharply until the pandemic. The trade in 2022 is conveniently ignored. What happened in 2016? The UK voted to leave the EU. Did that damage exports? No, the rate of increase in exports increased. 2016 is the year that the constant predictions of recession, high unemployment, etc. started.
|
|
|
Post by wannabee on Jun 13, 2023 12:59:34 GMT
How does that figure compare to pre-pandemic trade between the UK and US? Also be interesting know the volume of trade between the two, as with inflation you could (in theory) have a 23% increase in the value of goods being traded but the volume remains exactly the same. In 2021 UK exports to the US were £141.5 bn. In 2022 UK exports to the US were £168.3 bn. That is an increase of 19% as stated at the top of page 3 on the factsheet. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfThe value of £141.5 bn in 2021 equates to £146.55 in 2022 (reference: iamkate.com/data/uk-inflation/ )Consequently equivalent value UK exports to the US increased by 15% last year. That is an excellent performance. In 2020 UK exports to the US were £127.7 bn. equivalent to £129.9 in 2021. Consequently in equivalent value UK exports increased by 9%. If we go back to the year of the referendum, in 2016 UK exports to the US were £109.5 bn. which was equivalent to £129.05 in 2022. Thus exports increased by 30% over 6 years in equivalent value. In my review of 2023 Q1 I stated: "There are repeated references in anti Brexit media that UK exports have not performed as well as peer countries. These reports are often accompanied with a graph showing export trends of various nations which start with a base point of Quarter 4 2019. The reason that start point is chosen is because it was a peak point for UK exports that year, a record year for UK exports, as the final quarter of the calendar year often is. This methodology creates a false impression that the UK has not performed as well as other countries. If Quarter 1, often the weakest quarter for UK exports, was chosen as the base point a completely different picture would be presented, but that is just playing with statistics." Similarly comparisons of GDP performance by those opposed to Brexit constantly compare with 2019. But it is clear that the UK was far more seriously impacted by the pandemic than many other countries. I don't want to start another debate on this thread about the pandemic, but it is clear the UK economy being largely service based was far more impacted by the pandemic than those economies more dependant on goods. Furthermore the UK government managed the pandemic in its initial months far less competently than other countries, as was spelt out at length on this MB on the pandemic thread, and no doubt the public enquiry will show. Consequently UK exports in 2020 were seriously adversely impacted by the pandemic. In the case of the US, it should be noted that two thirds of UK exports to the US are services, resulting in a huge drop in exports in 2020. The distortion in trade figures post pandemic has also occurred in 2022 by the war in Ukraine, which has hugely inflated the two major goods imports from the US, namely gas and oil. (See bottom of page 6 on the factsheet.) STOP PRESSwww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/13/uk-exports-record-worse-than-any-g7-country-except-japan-in-last-decadeThis article highlights the UK export performance during the past decade. The period covered is 2012 to 2021. So the first 8 years of that period the UK was in the EU, and in 2020/1 trade was more seriously impacted by the pandemic. Is someone seriously suggesting the UK should have stayed in the EU because our trade was worse than the rest of the G7 except Japan? There is also the little matter not mentioned that most of the trade by Germany, France, and Italy is in Euros and within the EU. One of the reasons for leaving the EU is the UK will be free to set up our own trade deals with the rest of the world where most UK export trade has been since 2007. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports#:~:text=Exports%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom,Million%20in%20June%20of%201955. If the 10 years is looked at in more detail, it is apparent that UK exports were growing steadily till 2012 (surprise, surprise the 1st year of the period examined!) then plateaued from 2012 to 2016 after which it started to rise more sharply until the pandemic. The trade in 2022 is conveniently ignored. What happened in 2016? The UK voted to leave the EU. Did that damage exports? No, the rate of increase in exports increased. 2016 is the year that the constant predictions of recession, high unemployment, etc. started. Why on earth would you go off at a tangent in response to Oggy's post and quote selective data rather than address the issue raised. No reply needed we know the answer The point of the Article was that in the last 10 years UK Exports increased by 6% compared to 29.1% in EU Instead of a sensible Governments reaction which would be to try and help Industry Instead imitating a spoilt toddler in the playground this Government picked up the ball and ran away. Further hampering Industries Export efforts Arrogantly believing "Global Britain" couuld do better alone it set about negotiating its own Trade Deals. The first such deal was with Japan and was heralded by Liz Truss as a "Landmark moment for Britain" Well it has been in a way, in the first year Exports declined from £12.3Bn to £11.9Bn with both Goods and Services declining 4.9% and 2% respectively www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump
|
|
|
Post by oggyoggy on Jun 13, 2023 14:25:04 GMT
How does that figure compare to pre-pandemic trade between the UK and US? Also be interesting know the volume of trade between the two, as with inflation you could (in theory) have a 23% increase in the value of goods being traded but the volume remains exactly the same. In 2021 UK exports to the US were £141.5 bn. In 2022 UK exports to the US were £168.3 bn. That is an increase of 19% as stated at the top of page 3 on the factsheet. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfThe value of £141.5 bn in 2021 equates to £146.55 in 2022 (reference: iamkate.com/data/uk-inflation/ ) Consequently equivalent value UK exports to the US increased by 15% last year. That is an excellent performance. In 2020 UK exports to the US were £127.7 bn. equivalent to £129.9 in 2021. Consequently in equivalent value UK exports increased by 9%. If we go back to the year of the referendum, in 2016 UK exports to the US were £109.5 bn. which was equivalent to £129.05 in 2022. Thus exports increased by 30% over 6 years in equivalent value. In my review of 2023 Q1 I stated: "There are repeated references in anti Brexit media that UK exports have not performed as well as peer countries. These reports are often accompanied with a graph showing export trends of various nations which start with a base point of Quarter 4 2019. The reason that start point is chosen is because it was a peak point for UK exports that year, a record year for UK exports, as the final quarter of the calendar year often is. This methodology creates a false impression that the UK has not performed as well as other countries. If Quarter 1, often the weakest quarter for UK exports, was chosen as the base point a completely different picture would be presented, but that is just playing with statistics." Similarly comparisons of GDP performance by those opposed to Brexit constantly compare with 2019. But it is clear that the UK was far more seriously impacted by the pandemic than many other countries. I don't want to start another debate on this thread about the pandemic, but it is clear the UK economy being largely service based was far more impacted by the pandemic than those economies more dependant on goods. Furthermore the UK government managed the pandemic in its initial months far less competently than other countries, as was spelt out at length on this MB on the pandemic thread, and no doubt the public enquiry will show. Consequently UK exports in 2020 were seriously adversely impacted by the pandemic. In the case of the US, it should be noted that two thirds of UK exports to the US are services, resulting in a huge drop in exports in 2020. The distortion in trade figures post pandemic has also occurred in 2022 by the war in Ukraine, which has hugely inflated the two major goods imports from the US, namely gas and oil. (See bottom of page 6 on the factsheet.) STOP PRESSwww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/13/uk-exports-record-worse-than-any-g7-country-except-japan-in-last-decadeThis article highlights the UK export performance during the past decade. The period covered is 2012 to 2021. So the first 8 years of that period the UK was in the EU, and in 2020/1 trade was more seriously impacted by the pandemic. Is someone seriously suggesting the UK should have stayed in the EU because our trade was worse than the rest of the G7 except Japan? There is also the little matter not mentioned that most of the trade by Germany, France, and Italy is in Euros and within the EU. One of the reasons for leaving the EU is the UK will be free to set up our own trade deals with the rest of the world where most UK export trade has been since 2007. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports#:~:text=Exports%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom,Million%20in%20June%20of%201955. If the 10 years is looked at in more detail, it is apparent that UK exports were growing steadily till 2012 (surprise, surprise the 1st year of the period examined!) then plateaued from 2012 to 2016 after which it started to rise more sharply until the pandemic. The trade in 2022 is conveniently ignored. What happened in 2016? The UK voted to leave the EU. Did that damage exports? No, the rate of increase in exports increased. 2016 is the year that the constant predictions of recession, high unemployment, etc. started. Let’s start simple, is a 29% increase in exports (EU as a whole) a bigger or smaller increase in exports than a 6% increase (UK)?
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Jun 13, 2023 15:16:56 GMT
In 2021 UK exports to the US were £141.5 bn. In 2022 UK exports to the US were £168.3 bn. That is an increase of 19% as stated at the top of page 3 on the factsheet. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1156548/united-states-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2023-05-18.pdfThe value of £141.5 bn in 2021 equates to £146.55 in 2022 (reference: iamkate.com/data/uk-inflation/ )Consequently equivalent value UK exports to the US increased by 15% last year. That is an excellent performance. In 2020 UK exports to the US were £127.7 bn. equivalent to £129.9 in 2021. Consequently in equivalent value UK exports increased by 9%. If we go back to the year of the referendum, in 2016 UK exports to the US were £109.5 bn. which was equivalent to £129.05 in 2022. Thus exports increased by 30% over 6 years in equivalent value. In my review of 2023 Q1 I stated: "There are repeated references in anti Brexit media that UK exports have not performed as well as peer countries. These reports are often accompanied with a graph showing export trends of various nations which start with a base point of Quarter 4 2019. The reason that start point is chosen is because it was a peak point for UK exports that year, a record year for UK exports, as the final quarter of the calendar year often is. This methodology creates a false impression that the UK has not performed as well as other countries. If Quarter 1, often the weakest quarter for UK exports, was chosen as the base point a completely different picture would be presented, but that is just playing with statistics." Similarly comparisons of GDP performance by those opposed to Brexit constantly compare with 2019. But it is clear that the UK was far more seriously impacted by the pandemic than many other countries. I don't want to start another debate on this thread about the pandemic, but it is clear the UK economy being largely service based was far more impacted by the pandemic than those economies more dependant on goods. Furthermore the UK government managed the pandemic in its initial months far less competently than other countries, as was spelt out at length on this MB on the pandemic thread, and no doubt the public enquiry will show. Consequently UK exports in 2020 were seriously adversely impacted by the pandemic. In the case of the US, it should be noted that two thirds of UK exports to the US are services, resulting in a huge drop in exports in 2020. The distortion in trade figures post pandemic has also occurred in 2022 by the war in Ukraine, which has hugely inflated the two major goods imports from the US, namely gas and oil. (See bottom of page 6 on the factsheet.) STOP PRESSwww.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/13/uk-exports-record-worse-than-any-g7-country-except-japan-in-last-decadeThis article highlights the UK export performance during the past decade. The period covered is 2012 to 2021. So the first 8 years of that period the UK was in the EU, and in 2020/1 trade was more seriously impacted by the pandemic. Is someone seriously suggesting the UK should have stayed in the EU because our trade was worse than the rest of the G7 except Japan? There is also the little matter not mentioned that most of the trade by Germany, France, and Italy is in Euros and within the EU. One of the reasons for leaving the EU is the UK will be free to set up our own trade deals with the rest of the world where most UK export trade has been since 2007. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports#:~:text=Exports%20in%20the%20United%20Kingdom,Million%20in%20June%20of%201955. If the 10 years is looked at in more detail, it is apparent that UK exports were growing steadily till 2012 (surprise, surprise the 1st year of the period examined!) then plateaued from 2012 to 2016 after which it started to rise more sharply until the pandemic. The trade in 2022 is conveniently ignored. What happened in 2016? The UK voted to leave the EU. Did that damage exports? No, the rate of increase in exports increased. 2016 is the year that the constant predictions of recession, high unemployment, etc. started. Let’s start simple, is a 29% increase in exports (EU as a whole) a bigger or smaller increase in exports than a 6% increase (UK)? I'll keep it simple: A 29% increase in exports (EU as a whole) is a far bigger increase in exports than a UK 6% increase between 2012 and 2021. In fact it is a dreadful performance by the UK, - that's a good reason to have left the EU in 2020, so we can trade better with the rest of the world instead of being tied to EU tariffs, quotas, etc. The UK is now free to get rid of all the barriers to trade with the rest of the world which represents 84% of world trade and is growing faster than the EU.
|
|
|
Post by oggyoggy on Jun 13, 2023 16:05:17 GMT
Let’s start simple, is a 29% increase in exports (EU as a whole) a bigger or smaller increase in exports than a 6% increase (UK)? I'll keep it simple: A 29% increase in exports (EU as a whole) is a far bigger increase in exports than a UK 6% increase between 2012 and 2021. In fact it is a dreadful performance by the UK, - that's a good reason to have left the EU in 2020, so we can trade better with the rest of the world instead of being tied to EU tariffs, quotas, etc. The UK is now free to get rid of all the barriers to trade with the rest of the world which represents 84% of world trade and is growing faster than the EU. So you do understand some basic statistics. You just lack logical reasoning. You seem to think we would have had a lower increase had we remained in the EU, despite the EU as a whole increasing by 29%, a rate that is 4.5 times greater than our rate of increase. Your conclusion is particularly bizarre when you realise the 3 EU nations within the g7 increased exports by more than the 4 non- EU members. But you seem to think this shows EU membership hampers exports and the non-eu nations are increasing trade more than the EU, when the truth is the complete opposite in the G7. Trade with Japan has fallen since we signed our new trade agreements! Further signs that we cannot “trade better with the rest of the world” as you say above! You are like the final part of fighting talk on radio 5: defend the indefensible.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Jun 13, 2023 18:42:07 GMT
The UK is now free to get rid of all the barriers to trade with the rest of the world which represents 84% of world trade and is growing faster than the EU. We can negotiate more for our specific aims now but do we have the same negotiating power? Will other countries give us what we want without demanding benefits of their own? Seems complicated to me.
|
|