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Post by mrcoke on Aug 14, 2022 16:25:19 GMT
"For some strange reason Global Britain – the new world-beating behemoth, suddenly freed from the chains of EU control and ready to stride around the world cutting new trade deals left, right and centre – seems to have stayed in bed. The evidence is clear. The UK is now a less globally important trading nation, is rapidly being left behind by its rivals and trade is becoming a smaller part of its economy. If you don’t trust me you just have to look at the latest analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s own economic watchdog." www.theneweuropean.co.uk/trade-figures-for-brexit-and-britain-disaster/Another load of tripe from an anti Brexit organization that takes official statistics but then twists them by using arbitrary datum points and removing units. The suggestion that UK exports are lower than in 2016 is rubbish. I refer you to my long post on distorted statistics I posted on August 4th page 1,484.
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Post by toppercorner on Aug 14, 2022 17:00:25 GMT
"For some strange reason Global Britain – the new world-beating behemoth, suddenly freed from the chains of EU control and ready to stride around the world cutting new trade deals left, right and centre – seems to have stayed in bed. The evidence is clear. The UK is now a less globally important trading nation, is rapidly being left behind by its rivals and trade is becoming a smaller part of its economy. If you don’t trust me you just have to look at the latest analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s own economic watchdog." www.theneweuropean.co.uk/trade-figures-for-brexit-and-britain-disaster/Another load of tripe from an anti Brexit organization that takes official statistics but then twists them by using arbitrary datum points and removing units. The suggestion that UK exports are lower than in 2016 is rubbish. I refer you to my long post on distorted statistics I posted on August 4th page 1,484. well the office for budget responsibility says otherwise obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions"Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU"
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Post by foster on Aug 14, 2022 17:11:05 GMT
Whether there are polls showing more or less people in favour or against Brexit is irrelevant. It doesn't change anything now. Get over it (to everyone in general) I agree entirely Foster. I once took a job in about 2002, I soon regretted it, but it worked out very well in the end. In or out of the EU there is enough on the agenda in the coming six months to occupy us/ politicians. Why do you think people continue to prolong the debate/ or look back to 2016 No idea as there are other priorities. This thread should be shibinned. It's old news.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 14, 2022 17:17:15 GMT
Odd that folk who say they believe the Brexit debate is now redundant are amongst the most prolific posters on this thread about - er - Brexit.
Just ignore it guys.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 17:59:09 GMT
Odd that folk who say they believe the Brexit debate is now redundant are amongst the most prolific posters on this thread about - er - Brexit. Just ignore it guys. Seymour the debate now really is our relationship with the EU, European countries and other workd countries, organisations and events.( funnily enough, like other countries in the world). And therefore what this government and future governments do with it( as well as other players if course) is the issue. I haven't fully followed it but it seems the hero of the Left , Lynch, has got it right, in my opinion...A Brexiteer but a critic of this government and the way it has been handled. Brexit has occurred as Foster says.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 14, 2022 18:12:18 GMT
Odd that folk who say they believe the Brexit debate is now redundant are amongst the most prolific posters on this thread about - er - Brexit. Just ignore it guys. Seymour the debate now really is our relationship with the EU, European countries and other workd countries, organisations and events.( funnily enough, lije other countries in the world). And therefore what this government and future governments do with it( as well as other players if course) is the issue. Brexit has occurred as Foster says. Don't disagree - but if that's what you want to talk about start another thread. If others want to have a protracted debate about the rights and wrongs of Brexit that's up to them - its not for you or me to tell them what they can or can't talk about. Just ignore it (like I do with probably 90% of the content on this board).
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 18:16:08 GMT
Seymour the debate now really is our relationship with the EU, European countries and other workd countries, organisations and events.( funnily enough, lije other countries in the world). And therefore what this government and future governments do with it( as well as other players if course) is the issue. Brexit has occurred as Foster says. Don't disagree - but if that's what you want to talk about start another thread. If others want to have a protracted debate about the rights and wrongs of Brexit that's up to them - its not for you or me to tell them what they can or can't talk about. Just ignore it (like I do with probably 90% of the content on this board). I ignore most of it on here myself, my last contribution was about the accuracy of Opinion polls, not Brexit per se.Of course people can go on about it as long as they want amd I'll just continue to contribute as I want, as I'm sure you will.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 14, 2022 18:40:37 GMT
Don't disagree - but if that's what you want to talk about start another thread. If others want to have a protracted debate about the rights and wrongs of Brexit that's up to them - its not for you or me to tell them what they can or can't talk about. Just ignore it (like I do with probably 90% of the content on this board). I ignore most of it on here myself, my last contribution was about the accuracy of Opinion polls, not Brexit per se.Of course people can go on about it as long as they want amd I'll just continue to contribute as I want, as I'm sure you will. Not starting another thread then😉?
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 18:42:58 GMT
I ignore most of it on here myself, my last contribution was about the accuracy of Opinion polls, not Brexit per se.Of course people can go on about it as long as they want amd I'll just continue to contribute as I want, as I'm sure you will. Not starting another thread then😉? No need, there's already one criticising this government....you can if you want.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 14, 2022 18:52:13 GMT
Not starting another thread then😉? No need, there's already one criticising this government....you can if you want. How negative. I was thinking more along the lines of "Britannia Unchained - having our cake and eating it in the Sunlit Uplands' if that's not too wordy. Cokie will join you and cut and paste a few selected articles to kick you off.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 14, 2022 18:54:10 GMT
"For some strange reason Global Britain – the new world-beating behemoth, suddenly freed from the chains of EU control and ready to stride around the world cutting new trade deals left, right and centre – seems to have stayed in bed. The evidence is clear. The UK is now a less globally important trading nation, is rapidly being left behind by its rivals and trade is becoming a smaller part of its economy. If you don’t trust me you just have to look at the latest analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s own economic watchdog." www.theneweuropean.co.uk/trade-figures-for-brexit-and-britain-disaster/Another load of tripe from an anti Brexit organization that takes official statistics but then twists them by using arbitrary datum points and removing units. The suggestion that UK exports are lower than in 2016 is rubbish. I refer you to my long post on distorted statistics I posted on August 4th page 1,484. Of course that Ultra Left Wing Organisation BoE have predicted Recession to become official in Quarter 3 and last throughout 2023 We are halfway there already with GDP falling in Quarter 2 Not only is UK Imports and Exports (Trading) declining but the Balace Between Exports and Imports are at a negative record level.An economy striking in size The much vaunted Liz Trade Deals doesn't seem to be doing much good as Exports to ROW declined the sharpest £2Bn while Exports to EU obviously declined by £0.7Bn but EU remains UK's Largest Export Market The officially released Independent ONS figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpaymentsI presume we'll have your review of 2nd Quarter telling us there will be Jam Tomorrow
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 18:58:16 GMT
No need, there's already one criticising this government....you can if you want. How negative. I was thinking more along the lines of "Britannia Unchained - having our cake and eating it in the Sunlit Uplands' if that's not too wordy. Cokie will join you and cut and paste a few selected articles to kick you off. As I say , your idea, start one if you want.( " How about " Let's solve all our problems and rejoin the utopia of the EU, even if we were never very enthusiastic about it at all")
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Aug 14, 2022 18:58:55 GMT
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Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 14, 2022 19:02:19 GMT
"For some strange reason Global Britain – the new world-beating behemoth, suddenly freed from the chains of EU control and ready to stride around the world cutting new trade deals left, right and centre – seems to have stayed in bed. The evidence is clear. The UK is now a less globally important trading nation, is rapidly being left behind by its rivals and trade is becoming a smaller part of its economy. If you don’t trust me you just have to look at the latest analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s own economic watchdog." www.theneweuropean.co.uk/trade-figures-for-brexit-and-britain-disaster/Another load of tripe from an anti Brexit organization that takes official statistics but then twists them by using arbitrary datum points and removing units. The suggestion that UK exports are lower than in 2016 is rubbish. I refer you to my long post on distorted statistics I posted on August 4th page 1,484. Spot on
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 19:05:14 GMT
Wouldn't you agree Paul that the question as to whether we have Charter Cities or not is an issue for the current and future governments...not that I know very much about Charter Cities.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 14, 2022 19:11:07 GMT
How negative. I was thinking more along the lines of "Britannia Unchained - having our cake and eating it in the Sunlit Uplands' if that's not too wordy. Cokie will join you and cut and paste a few selected articles to kick you off. As I say , your idea, start one if you want.( " How about " Let's solve all our problems and rejoin the utopia of the EU, even if we were never very enthusiastic about it at all") I was thinking more we could discuss the prodigous output of the Ministry for Brexit Opportunities.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 19:22:22 GMT
As I say , your idea, start one if you want.( " How about " Let's solve all our problems and rejoin the utopia of the EU, even if we were never very enthusiastic about it at all") I was thinking more we could discuss the prodigous output of the Ministry for Brexit Opportunities. We can discuss anything you want
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 14, 2022 19:55:25 GMT
I was thinking more we could discuss the prodigous output of the Ministry for Brexit Opportunities. We can discuss anything you want As I said John - once our enthusiastic Leavers start the thread which puts Brexit behind us and explores the opportunities that will benefit us all that the EU has stood in the way of for all these years - I'll be in. Meanwhile I'm half way through a rather good novel. Enjoy what's left of your evening.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 14, 2022 19:59:31 GMT
We can discuss anything you want As I said John - once our enthusiastic Leavers start the thread which puts Brexit behind us and explores the opportunities that will benefit us all that the EU has stood in the way of for all these years - I'll be in. Meanwhile I'm half way through a rather good novel. Enjoy what's left of your evening. Brexit has happened. We are not in the EU. What becomes of the UK is up to the government we elect, much like other Western democracies. I'm halfway through a few glasses of Hoegaarden ( and talking to/ annoying the wife), enjoy your evening too.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 14, 2022 22:26:32 GMT
Another load of tripe from an anti Brexit organization that takes official statistics but then twists them by using arbitrary datum points and removing units. The suggestion that UK exports are lower than in 2016 is rubbish. I refer you to my long post on distorted statistics I posted on August 4th page 1,484. Of course that Ultra Left Wing Organisation BoE have predicted Recession to become official in Quarter 3 and last throughout 2023 We are halfway there already with GDP falling in Quarter 2 ANot only is UK Imports and Exports (Trading) declining but the Balace Between Exports and Imports are at a negative record level.An economy striking in size BThe much vaunted Liz Trade Deals doesn't seem to be doing much good as Exports to ROW declined the sharpest £2Bn while Exports to EU obviously declined by £0.7Bn but EU remains UK's Largest Export Market CThe officially released Independent ONS figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpaymentsI presume we'll have your review of 2nd Quarter telling us there will be Jam Tomorrow DTo reply to each of your remarks in turn: A The world is entering recession. The UK GDP declined in Q2, correct, but nothing to do with Brexit. The US GDP declined in Q1 and Q2 and France's GDP stagnated in Q1 - they did not leave the EU. Germany's economy stagnated in Q2 did they leave the EU? China had a negative GDP in Q2. Falling GDP has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with the continued impact of the pandemic, such as microchip shortages, and the war in Ukraine both causing massive inflation of energy and food products. It is clear that inflation and interest rate rises are stifling people's expenditure. B Both facts are correct but nothing to do with Brexit. UK imports are at an all time record because of the cost of energy. You should take a look at Germany's import graph; their balance of payments is the lowest its been since the 2008 recession. The EU will always continue to be the UK's largest export and import market, but it will continue to shrink as a proportion of UK trade. I could spend the night explaining trade gravitational theory to you, but I will let you find out for yourself. C Trade is growing with non EU countries, but it is not going to boom overnight, the new trade deal with Australia is phased in over 10 years (sorry but that's jam tomorrow). D Yes, there will be a review of the second quarter from me, and an update on post Brexit Britain generally. Data is not yet fully available for Q2, and you should not pay much attention to individual months figures, they are not accurate. Whilst my natural optimism for the UK's future may come through as "jam tomorrow", I do endeavour to reports facts and events that have taken place, or in progress, and things being initiated such as investment.
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Post by 4372 on Aug 14, 2022 22:59:46 GMT
Of course, in the real world, all these issues are central to Brexit. It's just that some people refuse to acknowledge the damage this country is doing to itself, and to our neighbours. I saw a post some time ago, and take no credit for the observation made there. It's like when your dad, (husband/boyfriend) was driving you somewhere. Somehow you got lost, but he refused to acknowledge this, or seek help from a map, or ask someone. He remained absolutely convinced that he knew the way. You turned up, hours late, hungry, and tired, but at least his pride was intact.
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Post by thevoid on Aug 15, 2022 6:31:44 GMT
Of course, in the real world, all these issues are central to Brexit. It's just that some people refuse to acknowledge the damage this country is doing to itself, and to our neighbours. I saw a post some time ago, and take no credit for the observation made there. It's like when your dad, (husband/boyfriend) was driving you somewhere. Somehow you got lost, but he refused to acknowledge this, or seek help from a map, or ask someone. He remained absolutely convinced that he knew the way. You turned up, hours late, hungry, and tired, but at least his pride was intact. Cool story. Needs some dragons though
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 15, 2022 8:07:27 GMT
Of course, in the real world, all these issues are central to Brexit. It's just that some people refuse to acknowledge the damage this country is doing to itself, and to our neighbours. I saw a post some time ago, and take no credit for the observation made there. It's like when your dad, (husband/boyfriend) was driving you somewhere. Somehow you got lost, but he refused to acknowledge this, or seek help from a map, or ask someone. He remained absolutely convinced that he knew the way. You turned up, hours late, hungry, and tired, but at least his pride was intact. Cool story. Needs some dragons though It is a good story, but what it really missed was the dad turning up lost and late and claiming that the journey had been a great success, accompanied by several others who'd witnessed his pointless floundering and agreed, and that he'd met the Dalai Lama and Barack Obama on the way who both agreed that he was a world leader in industry.
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Post by xchpotter on Aug 15, 2022 8:30:36 GMT
Of course, in the real world, all these issues are central to Brexit. It's just that some people refuse to acknowledge the damage this country is doing to itself, and to our neighbours. I saw a post some time ago, and take no credit for the observation made there. It's like when your dad, (husband/boyfriend) was driving you somewhere. Somehow you got lost, but he refused to acknowledge this, or seek help from a map, or ask someone. He remained absolutely convinced that he knew the way. You turned up, hours late, hungry, and tired, but at least his pride was intact. Yeh, or alternatively that dad carried on driving on a route because he knew it and was comfortable despite signs and warnings saying that the road ahead was closed due to a weak bridge. The kids never got the chance to turn up late, hungry and tired. Still, at least dad got to stay on the road he was comfortable with for just a bit longer.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 15, 2022 10:20:08 GMT
Of course, in the real world, all these issues are central to Brexit. It's just that some people refuse to acknowledge the damage this country is doing to itself, and to our neighbours. I saw a post some time ago, and take no credit for the observation made there. It's like when your dad, (husband/boyfriend) was driving you somewhere. Somehow you got lost, but he refused to acknowledge this, or seek help from a map, or ask someone. He remained absolutely convinced that he knew the way. You turned up, hours late, hungry, and tired, but at least his pride was intact. Yeh, or alternatively that dad carried on driving on a route because he knew it and was comfortable despite signs and warnings saying that the road ahead was closed due to a weak bridge. The kids never got the chance to turn up late, hungry and tired. Still, at least dad got to stay on the road he was comfortable with for just a bit longer. Not sure whether you've had a sudden moment of realisation, or you've not fully understood what you've written, but that post is just about spot on, just not in a good way! The kids got denied the opportunities available to them while Dad drove aimlessly around to no purpose, purely because he and he alone was happy doing so
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Post by xchpotter on Aug 15, 2022 12:45:22 GMT
Yeh, or alternatively that dad carried on driving on a route because he knew it and was comfortable despite signs and warnings saying that the road ahead was closed due to a weak bridge. The kids never got the chance to turn up late, hungry and tired. Still, at least dad got to stay on the road he was comfortable with for just a bit longer. Not sure whether you've had a sudden moment of realisation, or you've not fully understood what you've written, but that post is just about spot on, just not in a good way! The kids got denied the opportunities available to them while Dad drove aimlessly around to no purpose, purely because he and he alone was happy doing so Knew exactly what I was posting, as did you, so don't try and come over with your usual twisting of things 😀
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Post by wannabee on Aug 15, 2022 15:13:57 GMT
Of course that Ultra Left Wing Organisation BoE have predicted Recession to become official in Quarter 3 and last throughout 2023 We are halfway there already with GDP falling in Quarter 2 ANot only is UK Imports and Exports (Trading) declining but the Balace Between Exports and Imports are at a negative record level.An economy striking in size BThe much vaunted Liz Trade Deals doesn't seem to be doing much good as Exports to ROW declined the sharpest £2Bn while Exports to EU obviously declined by £0.7Bn but EU remains UK's Largest Export Market CThe officially released Independent ONS figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpaymentsI presume we'll have your review of 2nd Quarter telling us there will be Jam Tomorrow DTo reply to each of your remarks in turn: A The world is entering recession. The UK GDP declined in Q2, correct, but nothing to do with Brexit. The US GDP declined in Q1 and Q2 and France's GDP stagnated in Q1 - they did not leave the EU. Germany's economy stagnated in Q2 did they leave the EU? China had a negative GDP in Q2. Falling GDP has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with the continued impact of the pandemic, such as microchip shortages, and the war in Ukraine both causing massive inflation of energy and food products. It is clear that inflation and interest rate rises are stifling people's expenditure. B Both facts are correct but nothing to do with Brexit. UK imports are at an all time record because of the cost of energy. You should take a look at Germany's import graph; their balance of payments is the lowest its been since the 2008 recession. The EU will always continue to be the UK's largest export and import market, but it will continue to shrink as a proportion of UK trade. I could spend the night explaining trade gravitational theory to you, but I will let you find out for yourself. C Trade is growing with non EU countries, but it is not going to boom overnight, the new trade deal with Australia is phased in over 10 years (sorry but that's jam tomorrow). D Yes, there will be a review of the second quarter from me, and an update on post Brexit Britain generally. Data is not yet fully available for Q2, and you should not pay much attention to individual months figures, they are not accurate. Whilst my natural optimism for the UK's future may come through as "jam tomorrow", I do endeavour to reports facts and events that have taken place, or in progress, and things being initiated such as investment. So in essence you agree with my Post, which is hardly surprising as I merely posted the facts that UK is entering recession which is likely to last at least 2 years and at the same time UK Trading is shrinking with the Trade Deficit at record levels. Youu have added extraneous comparators to other Countries It may surprise you but my primary concern is UK performance No requirement to explain Trade Gravitational Theory (GRT) at least to me, I agree with it entirely and it is in fact my biggest Economic Objection to Brexit. It is intuitive, even to those that do not understand GRT, that you are more likely to be successful Trading with those Countries you are Geographically and Culturally close to than those more distant and by quite a Factor according to the Theory It is only the ERG and yourself have expounded on here that Gravity can be defied and lost EU Trade can be compensated by Trade from more far flung Countries. It is hardly coincidental that 8 of the Top 10 Countries UK Exports to are in Europe The exceptions US being No 1 and China being 7th behind Ireland You acknowledge that EU will continue to be an important but declining Export Market for UK Which is hardly surprising when you introduce Trade Barriers to such an extent that One Third of UK Companies have ceased exporting to EU because it is not cost effective with increased administration It then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that EU Exports become less of the overall Export Pie due to new barriers to Trade, but under GR Theory those lost EU Exports will not be replaced by Trade with ROW so the Pie has become smaller Your C Comment: Trade is NOT growing with ROW it declined £2Bn in 2nd Quarter And let's examine UK/Australia Trade Deal the first independently negotiated Trade Deal and likely to become UK model for future Trade Deals your Jam Tomorrow assertion According to the Government’s own impact statement it would add 0.08% to GDP by 2035 Woopty Doo commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9484/And does this New found Brexit Freedom to negotiate Trade Deals enhance UK Sovereignty and restore Supremacy to UK Parliament? Well no not really because Government refused Parliamentary debate on the Agreement despite many concerns raised by Constituents and interested groups to their MPs about the Agreement www.sustainweb.org/news/jul22-australia-trade-scrutiny-crag-ends/What could Government possibly not want Parliamentarians to discuss? Maybe it's the secret provisions in the Agreement This would be binding on future Governments a boast that Brexiteers say the purpose of Brexit is to allow the Electorate to change Government to change future Policy leftfootforward.org/2021/06/tories-hint-at-secret-corporate-courts-in-uk-australia-trade-deal/The Independent Trade and Agriculture Commission TAC which advices Government on Animal Welfare, Plant Health Standards and Environment Standards as they relate to Agriculture were asked to do an impact report on the UK Australia Trade deal. It doesn't make pretty reading www.fwi.co.uk/news/australia-trade-deal-what-the-tac-report-has-to-say#:~:text=The%20TAC%20report%20confirms%20the,produced%20to%20lower%20welfare%20standards. The TAC report confirms the deal could result in the UK having to accept imports of agrifoods produced with pesticides banned in the UK, GM crops and wool from mutilated sheep.
It is also likely to increase imports of beef from feedlot systems and produced to lower welfare standards. The committee found that agri-foods from deforested land could be imported in larger quantities as well.
The Agreement will also allow the import of Hormonal Growth Treated Beef albeit labelled as such
Not great for the Environment either importing Food from deforested land and from halfway around the World but even worse news for UK Farmers who will have to compete with Australian Farmers who use much lower standards and therefore cost. Of course Government could lower Food and Environmental Standards in UK to allow UK Farmers to compete on an even playing field, it would just be one more broken promise I accept for many the vote for Brexit was on Non Economic Grounds which is a fair position to take. My contention using the UK/Australia Trade Deal as an example makes a mockery of this assertion where there is even less scrutiny and is binding on future Governments Another Unintended Consequence only peripherally discussed during the Brexit Debate is the potential breakup of the Union where much clearer majorities in Scotland and Northern-ireland voted in favour of remaining in EU than UK as a whole voted to leave.. I know you have expressed a neutral position on this previously if it were the wish of those Countries which to be fair is consistent with your position on Brexit. Others may not share your view. The impetus particularly in Scotland for Independence may gain momentum if NI effectively still within EU continues to outpace GB Economically
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Post by wagsastokie on Aug 15, 2022 15:44:06 GMT
To reply to each of your remarks in turn: A The world is entering recession. The UK GDP declined in Q2, correct, but nothing to do with Brexit. The US GDP declined in Q1 and Q2 and France's GDP stagnated in Q1 - they did not leave the EU. Germany's economy stagnated in Q2 did they leave the EU? China had a negative GDP in Q2. Falling GDP has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with the continued impact of the pandemic, such as microchip shortages, and the war in Ukraine both causing massive inflation of energy and food products. It is clear that inflation and interest rate rises are stifling people's expenditure. B Both facts are correct but nothing to do with Brexit. UK imports are at an all time record because of the cost of energy. You should take a look at Germany's import graph; their balance of payments is the lowest its been since the 2008 recession. The EU will always continue to be the UK's largest export and import market, but it will continue to shrink as a proportion of UK trade. I could spend the night explaining trade gravitational theory to you, but I will let you find out for yourself. C Trade is growing with non EU countries, but it is not going to boom overnight, the new trade deal with Australia is phased in over 10 years (sorry but that's jam tomorrow). D Yes, there will be a review of the second quarter from me, and an update on post Brexit Britain generally. Data is not yet fully available for Q2, and you should not pay much attention to individual months figures, they are not accurate. Whilst my natural optimism for the UK's future may come through as "jam tomorrow", I do endeavour to reports facts and events that have taken place, or in progress, and things being initiated such as investment. So in essence you agree with my Post, which is hardly surprising as I merely posted the facts that UK is entering recession which is likely to last at least 2 years and at the same time UK Trading is shrinking with the Trade Deficit at record levels. Youu have added extraneous comparators to other Countries It may surprise you but my primary concern is UK performance No requirement to explain Trade Gravitational Theory (GRT) at least to me, I agree with it entirely and it is in fact my biggest Economic Objection to Brexit. It is intuitive, even to those that do not understand GRT, that you are more likely to be successful Trading with those Countries you are Geographically and Culturally close to than those more distant and by quite a Factor according to the Theory It is only the ERG and yourself have expounded on here that Gravity can be defied and lost EU Trade can be compensated by Trade from more far flung Countries. It is hardly coincidental that 8 of the Top 10 Countries UK Exports to are in Europe The exceptions US being No 1 and China being 7th behind Ireland You acknowledge that EU will continue to be an important but declining Export Market for UK Which is hardly surprising when you introduce Trade Barriers to such an extent that One Third of UK Companies have ceased exporting to EU because it is not cost effective with increased administration It then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that EU Exports become less of the overall Export Pie due to new barriers to Trade, but under GR Theory those lost EU Exports will not be replaced by Trade with ROW so the Pie has become smaller Your C Comment: Trade is NOT growing with ROW it declined £2Bn in 2nd Quarter And let's examine UK/Australia Trade Deal the first independently negotiated Trade Deal and likely to become UK model for future Trade Deals your Jam Tomorrow assertion According to the Government’s own impact statement it would add 0.08% to GDP by 2035 Woopty Doo commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9484/And does this New found Brexit Freedom to negotiate Trade Deals enhance UK Sovereignty and restore Supremacy to UK Parliament? Well no not really because Government refused Parliamentary debate on the Agreement despite many concerns raised by Constituents and interested groups to their MPs about the Agreement www.sustainweb.org/news/jul22-australia-trade-scrutiny-crag-ends/What could Government possibly not want Parliamentarians to discuss? Maybe it's the secret provisions in the Agreement This would be binding on future Governments a boast that Brexiteers say the purpose of Brexit is to allow the Electorate to change Government to change future Policy leftfootforward.org/2021/06/tories-hint-at-secret-corporate-courts-in-uk-australia-trade-deal/The Independent Trade and Agriculture Commission TAC which advices Government on Animal Welfare, Plant Health Standards and Environment Standards as they relate to Agriculture were asked to do an impact report on the UK Australia Trade deal. It doesn't make pretty reading www.fwi.co.uk/news/australia-trade-deal-what-the-tac-report-has-to-say#:~:text=The%20TAC%20report%20confirms%20the,produced%20to%20lower%20welfare%20standards. The TAC report confirms the deal could result in the UK having to accept imports of agrifoods produced with pesticides banned in the UK, GM crops and wool from mutilated sheep.
It is also likely to increase imports of beef from feedlot systems and produced to lower welfare standards. The committee found that agri-foods from deforested land could be imported in larger quantities as well.
The Agreement will also allow the import of Hormonal Growth Treated Beef albeit labelled as such
Not great for the Environment either importing Food from deforested land and from halfway around the World but even worse news for UK Farmers who will have to compete with Australian Farmers who use much lower standards and therefore cost. Of course Government could lower Food and Environmental Standards in UK to allow UK Farmers to compete on an even playing field, it would just be one more broken promise I accept for many the vote for Brexit was on Non Economic Grounds which is a fair position to take. My contention using the UK/Australia Trade Deal as an example makes a mockery of this assertion where there is even less scrutiny and is binding on future Governments Another Unintended Consequence only peripherally discussed during the Brexit Debate is the potential breakup of the Union where much clearer majorities in Scotland and Northern-ireland voted in favour of remaining in EU than UK as a whole voted to leave.. I know you have expressed a neutral position on this previously if it were the wish of those Countries which to be fair is consistent with your position on Brexit. Others may not share your view. The impetus particularly in Scotland for Independence may gain momentum if NI effectively still within EU continues to outpace GB Economically Well to be totally frank in the current financial climate If I can source half price Australian beef I’ll give it a go you never know they might drop a bit of skippy in it We can get back to the good old days of eu beef with a touch of shergar
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 15, 2022 15:48:23 GMT
Not sure whether you've had a sudden moment of realisation, or you've not fully understood what you've written, but that post is just about spot on, just not in a good way! The kids got denied the opportunities available to them while Dad drove aimlessly around to no purpose, purely because he and he alone was happy doing so Knew exactly what I was posting, as did you, so don't try and come over with your usual twisting of things 😀 I was agreeing with you! The way you explained it is pretty much how it is, old guys stuck in their old ways, fucking it up for the next generation.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 15, 2022 16:25:15 GMT
Well Waga as UK is currently negotiating a Trade Deal with South Korea as your Avatar might suggest you may be partial to a bit of Dog
Both options are not of Universal appeal mind
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