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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 9, 2022 18:46:55 GMT
Classic wanker Putin quite willing to slaughter tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, IMO the more the merrier and once embarrassed in the world press pings missiles into residential areas, big man, not. I despise everything that is Russian I still think you're going too far projecting it onto everything Russian. I totally understand your anger but also know Russians who oppose the war, donate to Ukraine etc. The culture has a cancer in it right now, but IMO blanket hatred only feeds that cancer. There might be a way to make Russia in 30 years look more like Japan or Germany do now. My mate's granddad spent time in a WW2 Japanese camp and would never, ever have accepted anything except brutal punishment for all Japanese. Hated them to his dying breath... If we'd listened to him we wouldn't have a democratic ally in the far East today. It's a tough and tricky subject though. I admire your optimism, but I cannot see it ever happening. Governing an enormous country like Russia has always been done with utter contempt for life since the middle ages and then Ivan The Terrible turned it up a couple of notches. That's not to say that Russians have an endemic desire to rule the world, but their culture respects the tough big guy at the top, and that inevitably means that the leader will be a twat that perpetuates the status quo.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:57:44 GMT
I doubt that it's a coincidence that there was a train on the bridge at the same time as the incident. Whether the train was specifically targeted or simply a train that arrived after the explosives had been placed is anyone's guess.
I have to admit, my first thought was that it might be carrying the nuclear missile launchers we saw earlier this week.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:30:47 GMT
There are a couple of names for what you're suggesting; World War Three Armageddon Would simply reinforcing that a nuclear response to Russia nuking Ukraine trigger World War Three? Russia talks, NATO does. Its always best to keep your powder dry, as it gives you options. Russia has come unstuck by making empty threats. Putin miscalculated the Western response and he knows full well what NATO might do if he continues to poke the Western Bear.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:25:53 GMT
Russia are currently saying that the damage to the Kerch bridge is an accident.
I've not heard what they are saying about the reported drone attack on a Russian airbase that's 200km inside of Russia. The base houses long range nuclear capable bombers.
Anyone think that somebody is sending a message to Putin?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 8, 2022 6:19:40 GMT
Why aren't the West making it clear that if Putin nukes Ukraine, we will obliterate his regime with immediate effect? Is that because we wouldn't do that and we'd simply apply more sanctions? It'd be very interesting to see how the West would react if Putin were to go nuclear. You'd hope there is a decisive plan in place. There are a couple of names for what you're suggesting; World War Three Armageddon
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 6, 2022 19:06:23 GMT
Having to use candles during the power cuts in the 1970s is still a period as a kid of which, I still have fond memories. Like my dad at the time, if it happens again this winter, I will not enjoy the power cuts as much as my kids.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 6, 2022 17:39:54 GMT
It's October 6th and despite a couple of moments of weakness, I've not put the heating on yet.
The long johns are ready to go on as we get closer to winter and the electric blanket is seeing some action. how many of are trying to tough it out until November or longer?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 3, 2022 17:59:29 GMT
Just in from John.
Brief Update:
The Russian Army has "misplaced" 1.2 million sets of winter uniforms.
Keeping their cannon fodder conscripts from freezing to death starting next month is going to be a major logistical challenge.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 3, 2022 17:58:38 GMT
John R Bruning, from this morning.
War news is always fluid and of dubious accuracy in the moment. Right now, the news from the Kherson Front, if true, is stunning. The Ukrainian advance along the west bank of the Dnieper has cut off and surrounded a huge force of Russians. There's an estimate that some 15,000 are trapped. That number seems very high to me.
OSINT sources have posted video of a Russian train supposedly heading for the Kherson Front carrying 17 Iskander medium range tactical missile systems. The Iskander can carry a nuclear payload, so there's a lot of speculation/concern about this right now.
The Russians are claiming they caught and destroyed some 89 "Zombie NATO Proxy Forces" tanks on the Kherson Front. The Russian propaganda accounts on Twitter are saying that the Wagner Group ambushed them with Sointsepek missiles and left nothing but "burned bodies and NATO equipment."
Russian media reports that the “First Deputy Chairman of the Kherson Regional State Administration for Security” Aleksey Katerinichev was killed last night. He was a 3 star. See photo below.
Lastly, Russian milbloggers on Telegram are admitting the Ukrainians have broken through their lines to a depth of 20 kilometers on the north side of the Kherson bridgehead.
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Freshly conscripted men Bodaybo, Irkutsk oblast. The Russian mobilization continues. Meanwhile, estimated Russian KIA + equipment losses up to this morning.
Most recently, eight members of the 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Russian special operations brigade were listed as killed in action around Lyman. That makes 73 members of that unit killed in action in Ukraine +3 more KIA in Syria.
This figure doesn't include the Russian soldiers taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces. I've been unable to find any well-sourced numbers for that, though there have been 24 prisoner exchanges with the Ukrainians getting about 800 people back.
A couple of maps showing the general Ukrainian advance. The current maps floating around differ wildly as the situation is fluid with lots of conflicting info.
A photo of the train with the 17 Iskander missile systems aboard.
Lastly, a photo of Aleksey Katerinichev
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 3, 2022 6:33:25 GMT
From John R Bruning
News from Ukraine:
The Ukrainian armed forces launched another offensive this weekend. This time, they attacked the north side of the Russian bridgehead across the Dnieper River near Kherson. The Russians on that part of the line broke and ran. A Russian reporter on Telegram has been begging for air support.
Most recent reports suggest the front's collapse is so complete that the Ukrainian forward elements advanced 75 kilometers today. That puts them about 80 kms from Kherson now on that side of the line.
There are somewhere between 20,000 and 50,000 Russians west of the Dnieper.
This comes a day after Lyman fell to the Ukrainians, where some 5000 Russians were captured and another 1500 killed trying to escape as they were being surrounded.
Unconfirmed report says 500 Russian conscripts flat out refused to fight today.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 1, 2022 21:19:14 GMT
Of course he has. Laughable nonsense. I'm far from suggesting that a nuclear strike is imminent but I don't think you can simply write it off as laughable nonsense. These are insane narcissists who have already demonstrated that they don't give a toss about anything but their own egos. If at some point, Putin realises that he really has lost, then it's entirely possible (although not probable) that he will elect to take everybody down with him, rathet than live to be humiliated. Ultimate control of the nuclear button in Russia is with the top military brass, not Putin. That's not to say that they would not follow his orders, but there is a level of safeguarding from having a nutter in charge. It's something of a concern that Putin has been purging his military, so I don't know how much common sense the current top brass have.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 30, 2022 21:16:36 GMT
I don't know the rules either. I cannot see how China would agree to international military action against Russia. I don't think they want a nuclear arms race and Taiwan getting their own. Which is what I would do if I was Taiwan and saw Russia get away with this nuclear intimidation. Taiwan can't just get nuclear weapons, and just the act of trying and building the infrastructure would give China a reason to invade.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 30, 2022 20:53:55 GMT
Ukraine has called for Russia to be kicked off the Security Council. That is extremely unlikely to happen unless the Russians use nuclear weapons. Wonder why he thinks this would change things? I don't know UN rules. But could it open the door to a worldwide special operation to demilitarise and denazify Russia? If India and China truly don't want the nuclear floodgates opened then they should agree to something like that. I don't know the rules either. I cannot see how China would agree to international military action against Russia.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 30, 2022 20:24:23 GMT
John R Bruning is back with an update, and it gets more interesting the further you go down the list of points. The photos he refers to show the Russian equivalent of the Home Guard in fresh uniforms, looking less than happy to be there.
Some developments in Europe unfolding right now.
1. Russia annexed four sections of Ukraine today after a hasty and totally fictitious referendum.
2. Why did Putin do this? The Ukrainians are on the verge of a significant strategic victory and can recapture all territory lost. By formally annexing the places not yet liberated, there is the paper appearance that should Ukraine continue their offensive, they would be attacking Russian sovereign territory. This falls under the Russian nuclear umbrella and would give Putin an excuse to unleash nuclear weapons on Ukraine in response.
3. Putin underscored that a few hours ago saying Russia will defend those territories with any and all means & weapons.
4. The Russian army is in such a deplorable state that the only way to stave off complete catastrophe is for Putin to lean into using nuclear weapons as a means to leverage Ukraine into ceasing its offensive. The Russians have no other way to stop it right now.
5. Putin asked Ukraine to restart peace talks in his speech today, on the condition that the annexed territories are off the table.
6. Zelenksy rejected peace talks with Putin, though he did suggest he would engage with Moscow. Ukraine immediately filed an accelerated petition to join NATO, which if accepted, would put NATO at war with Russia. Zelensky also has asked for anti-missile defense systems to be deployed at once to Ukraine.
7. The US announced further sanctions against Russia in response to this. Mostly they are against individual Russian elites.
8. Finland is closing its border with Russia. Most Western nations have told their citizens to leave Russia at once.
9. Somewhere between 200-300,000 military aged males have fled Russia since the mobilization order. The Russians have 7.3 million men between the ages of 18-29. That figure jumps to about 14 million if you go to 34. The army is currently trying to put 1.2 million men in uniform. Putin amended the mobilization order this week by exempting students. Those fleeing the draft seem to be largely middle to upper class urbanites, which will no doubt have a lasting effect on Russia's economy.
10. The forced conscription has focused on poor, ethnic minorities largely in rural areas. The ages drafted include men in their 50s and 60s. See the attached photos as examples. These men were drafted in Crimea.
11. Last week, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West again, adding he "isn't bluffing."
12. Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dimitry Medvedev posted on his Telegram page this week saying essentially using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is an option and that the West and NATO does not have the stomach to respond.
13. There is a division in DC between the admin/state dept and the military on how to respond. The military does not believe a conventional response to a Russian nuclear attack will deter the Russians. The administration believes it will and has been passing behind the scenes messages to the Russians that if they do use nukes, there will be a massive conventional response.
14. The State Dept. is leaning on India and China to try and get Russia's remaining "allies" to reign Putin in to make sure the Russians do not escalate to a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
15. Backdoor channels between the US and Russia to discuss new START nuclear weapons verification agreements and implementation have been opened by the Russians.
16. As far as can be determined with public information, no Russian tactical warheads have been moved out of their storage bunkers.
17. After postponing test launches of ICBMs in order to de-escalate tensions, the US ran a nuclear weapons loading exercise with some of the B-52 fleet this week.
18. The UN Security Council is meeting today to vote on a resolution denouncing the annexations. Russia has veto power over this, so it will go nowhere. Plus this means nothing anyway. Empty UN proclamations.
Ukraine has called for Russia to be kicked off the Security Council. That is extremely unlikely to happen unless the Russians use nuclear weapons.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 29, 2022 20:55:53 GMT
You know that exchange that took place the other day where a bunch of POW's (Including them British lads) got exchanged for a couple of Russian blokes, how did that all come about? It was apparently down to the Saudi ruler that it got done, but where did he suddenly popup from? How did he have so much influence? How come he's suddenly disappeared into the background again? Why would Russia give a shit about Saudi when they're (Russia) all pally with Iran? None of it makes sense... Unless it all got explained somewhere & I've just missed it. Saudi has been buying Russian oil, yes really.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 21, 2022 21:09:17 GMT
John Parshall
Ukrainian Update. Or, well, more musings than anything else. TL;DR I'm still shaking my head over the tea leaves from the recent Kharkiv counteroffensive. Perun, who is perhaps my favorite Ukraine war analyst because we share a deep, abiding love for the same sort of economic nerdery that underlies wars, released a new video a few days ago talking about this same topic. I think it is one of his finest to date. Some key takeaway points:
1) He emphasizes something that a couple people have pointed out, but that few people without an understanding of WWII East Front history can really understand at an emotional level: the recent Kharkiv counteroffensive *destroyed* 1st Guards Tank Army as a fighting unit. As Perun puts it, "This isn't just some conscripts from a pub in Donetsk; this is 1st Guards Tank Army." 1GTA was formed in 1942, and fought heroically throughout the war, largely under noted armor expert Mikhail Katukov. (For those of you who know the movie "Patton," that Russian general that Patton insults and then grudgingly gives a toast to at the end of the movie? That was Katukov.) The modern Russian 1GTA is an elite unit, perhaps *the* elite mechanized formation in their entire army. They're based around Moscow, and their role in an offensive war with NATO is to be a breakthrough / deep exploitation hammer, or on the defensive, to be the primary counterattack formation that would crush any NATO incursion.
Point is, 1GTA is a proud, nasty, famous unit. And yet the Ukrainians completely overran it, in some cases with Humvees and light mechanized forces. 1GTA fled the field so quickly that they left hundreds of top-of-the line armored vehicles *in perfect working order* sitting behind them. T-fricking-80s and 90s. They didn't even bother to blow up their ammo stocks. They simply ran away. This would be the equivalent of the U.S. 1st Armored Division ("Old Ironsides"), or 1st Infantry Division ("The Big Red One") climbing out of their Abrams, changing into civvies, piling into whatever minivans they could commandeer from a Walmart parking lot, and abandoning the field. It's unthinkable. It's shameful. It's just jaw-dropping.
2) The failure of Russian airpower in the Donbas, likewise, is equally jaw-dropping. This counterattack occurred practically on Russia's doorstep, and yet the VVS was completely unable to stop it, and lost several high-end aircraft in the process of that failure. We are talking about the *second largest air force in the world* here. And Eastern Ukraine was supposed to be a more favorable threat environment for the Russians because it was further away from NATO intel-gathering assets, as well as at the end of a very long logistics pipeline for the Ukrainians. Yet the VVS did essentially *nothing* to blunt the Ukrainian thrust to the Oskill River. This would be like the USA fighting a ground war with Mexico, and the USAF being unable to control the airspace over Tijuana. It simply boggles the mind.
For me, this illustrates two things: first, the incredibly corrosive effects of top-to-bottom corruption within the Russian military. Broadly speaking, this is an *awful* fighting force: shamefully poorly led, abysmally trained, and largely unmotivated. The good units the Russians did have (naval infantry, airborne, etc.) have been completely hollowed out by, and their replacements are being recruited from prisons and homeless shelters. "Pathetic" doesn't even begin to describe it.
Second, it shows you how destructive low morale can be. All the Russian troops in Ukraine are currently burdened by the cratering spirits that come from a combination of fighting a war that many of the men know to be stupid and illegitimate, compounded by the knowledge that the enemy has it all over you in terms of their own fighting spirit, and martial technique. The UAF is getting better with every passing week. The RFA is going in the opposite direction. And everybody knows it.
This is further compounded, as Perun points out, by the fact that when the Ukrainians pushed into a heavily *Russian-speaking* section of eastern Ukraine, by and large they were greeted as liberators. He noted that many of the old women behaved as his own Russian-speaking grandmother would have behaved, by inviting the troops in for pancakes. Yes, there are certainly some Russian sympathizers in these regions. But by and large, the people on the street, even the Russian-speaking people on the street, do not want to be a part of Russia. In terms of basic political mobilization in eastern Ukraine, Russia has lost. It's already over.
Given all this, Putin's latest announcement of Russia mobilizing 300,000 troops: Good luck with that, Vova. First of all, I am skeptical they can do it. Second, even if they can put that many men into uniform, I don't think it changes the trend lines now operating, because it will take months to equip and train those new soldiers (and they've already hollowed out their own training cadres throwing together stop-gap formations for the war that have been destroyed in the process). The Russian army is basically eating itself at this point. I could be wrong, but I just don't think a partial mobilization materially changes the increasingly probable outcome of this war: a flat-out Ukrainian victory. Guess we'll see.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 20, 2022 15:35:17 GMT
If nothing else, it gives the appearance of him having devastating options. Thing is, how many times have we heard scary noises come out of Russia that have ultimately come to nothing other than giving the appeasers something to shout about? He has zero support to widen the scope of the war from anyone that matters, including China. It sounds like brinkmanship to me. At least I hope so.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 20, 2022 14:06:08 GMT
A little bit cringe that is mate. Your wording is certainly straight out of the Western media propaganda machine. To dismiss the influence of Erdogan over the past 7 months is incredibly naive. He's the only leader in the world who has been praised by Nato, Zelensky and indeed, Putin for his efforts to end the war. His ability to negotiate the Ukraine grain deal being one example of him succeeding where others have failed. Supplying Ukraine with training and weapons isn't influencing Putin? It might be defeating him but that's quite different to being able to sit round a table and agree an end to the war. Are there any Western leaders outside of Erdogan who currently have dialogue with Putin? Why didn't he negotiate it before Ukraine kicked the Russian missile launchers off Snake Island and the Russian navy realised they couldn't hang out in the western Black Sea? I've seen other sources praising them and an nervous about those who rush to praise authoritarians. There are some people that I do not take their comments as balanced. For instance, people that praise Trump and Erdogan, are dismissive of human caused climate change, mitigate the brutality of Russian soldiers, and yet can turn full snowflake when reading about Ellie Goulding and Ben Stiller.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 16, 2022 8:59:13 GMT
I spoke to a man who said the russian soldiers are mostly highly paid recruted military professionals, not ordinary military service men. Can anyone confirm this? Is he talking bull? That depends on what the question was, the Russian army is made up of many types of solider, some of which fall into your category.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 15, 2022 14:36:11 GMT
Russia playing the nuke card, I think, is a dead end that solves nothing for them operationally, and risks (at a minimum) a vigorous NATO conventional response that could end the war in Ukraine in Ukraine's favor in a matter of days or weeks. The entrance of NATO air power alone would be decisive to the ground war. I am *not* an expert on Russian nuclear deterence theory, but from what I understand, the Russian nuclear command system is not just Vlad saying "Nuke 'em!" Any launch authorization from Putin also has to go through the Russian General Staff--they have the actual launch codes. In fact, it is the General Staff that has the ability to bypass political authorities in order to launch in the event of a national emergency, not the other way around. In other words, Putin's usage of nuclear weapons depends on the obedience of the very people that Putin is now throwing under the bus for his own failed war. Is the Russian military going to end its world for the sake of this guy? I mean, it's certainly possible. And we can't discount it completely. But I honestly don't buy it. I think the bigger risk of this is a coup with Putin (relatively moderate compared to some of the nut jobs) replaced by a hardliner who then decides 'fuck it'. I'm amazed nuclear weapons haven't been used since the second world war really, it only takes upper leadership of a nuclear state who aren't bothered about the consequences (or feel they can get away with it) and its game over. Sounds like the Charlton and Alan Curbishley conundrum.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 15, 2022 6:21:56 GMT
John Parshall
Ukraine Update... I mean, such as it is. TL;DR, I'm just gonna put it out there: I think Russia is now officially boogered. I mean, it ain't over until it's over. And we could all be surprised. But I think the accumulation of trend lines now points firmly to a Russian defeat in this war.
As ISW noted yesterday, the Putin regime is now fully engaged in doing what totalitarian regimes do when 1) the Glorious Leader at first works assiduously to stamp his own mark of personal genius on a war, but then 2) the war goes disastrously south: you throw your own military under the bus. Field Marshal Fedor von Bock, who presided over his own massive Kharkiv victory back in 1942, can personally attest to what that feels like. The Russian MoD is now getting the same treatment in the shorts from an infuriated dictator who is working to shore up support, appease Russian milbloggers, and continue looking strong, resolute, and resourceful. All of this despite the fact that Putin has been micro-managing this war via puppet strings and bypassing the normal chain of command. His name is already indelibly "on the box." The whole thing is just deliciously and predictably perfect "exposed dictator" behavior. Namaste, Vlad: I honor the place where your cynical ruthlessness and utter military incompetence meet.
Hasn't been much movement on the front since UAF did their number on Russian defenses in Kharkiv oblast. The front lines have stabilized for the moment on the River Oskil. I'm unclear as to the reason for the slow-down. Could be a number of things: 1) Ukrainian logistics are only currently good enough to support an advance of about 100km or so, and they're at the end of their leash; 2) they took heavy losses and need to regroup; or 3) they're taking the time to line up their forces for a new offensive somewhere else. We'll see. I personally think there are probably plenty of other opportunities along Russian lines. As Michael Kofman noted on a podcast a couple days ago, the Russian Western Military District, which is responsible for the Donbas, is basically finished as a fighting force for the foreseeable future. The strategic initiative is firmly in Ukraine's hands. No matter how you look at it, this has been a game-changing week.
Meanwhile, the Kherson operation continues methodically doing what it's doing. When I see pro-Russian YouTubers describing that operation as a failure, it makes me smile inwardly. We'll see who laughs last, me boy-os. My own sense is that the ultimate effects of smashed ground lines of communication across a large river are going to be as inevitable as gravity. Logistics are the core of modern warfare. Without a credible supply line across the Dnipro, it's simply a matter of time before Russian forces run out of food, gas, and things that go 'boom.' At which point the Ukrainians may bag more POWs and real-estate than they just did in Kharkiv. Again, we'll see. But that's where my money's at.
All in all, I just don't think Russia has many credible military options left. Even if Putin was to play the "Declare War / Full Mobilization" card at this point, I don't think it does Russia a lot of good. Even assuming that Russian men flocked to Putin's flag in a rush of patriotism (which is laughable), I think Russia is now too far behind a number of crucial power curves to catch up.
Russia's training establishment is not currently geared for a huge influx of recruits. Their training camps have been denuded of quality troops that were sent to the front (and expended) weeks ago. So, their training cadre is verschnukt. Russia's ability to produce new equipment is severely impaired. They're buying shells from North Korea. They're digging ancient T-62s out of warehouses to send to their LNR and DPR lackeys (whose own manpower bases are now nearly kaput). All in all, Russia's improvised means of force generation appear to be reaching the end of the line in terms of effectiveness. And they've created *zero* value on the battlefield in any case.
Meanwhile, NATO's own training establishment is already paying real results while still ramping up, and NATO logistical support is starting to really hum. A year from now, Ukraine will be shifted completely to NATO-standard heavy weapons, meaning ammo will never be a problem, ever again. Ukraine's army will be even better trained. They have already conclusively demonstrated that their morale and performance is much superior to Russia's. How does having more cannon-fodder conscripts in the Russian ranks suddenly reverse that over-arching equation?
The EU has just categorically stated "We are going to make it through the winter without Russian gas (and here are the legislative initiatives to make that stick). We know it's gonna suck, but 'eff you, Vlad." Putin's "Cold War" on heating oil isn't going to work, not now that Ukraine has demonstrated to the European public that the EU is backing a likely war winner. Thus, the balance of economic resources remains hilariously asymmetric in Ukraine's favor, and is now coupled with renewed resolve.
Russia playing the nuke card, I think, is a dead end that solves nothing for them operationally, and risks (at a minimum) a vigorous NATO conventional response that could end the war in Ukraine in Ukraine's favor in a matter of days or weeks. The entrance of NATO air power alone would be decisive to the ground war.
I am *not* an expert on Russian nuclear deterence theory, but from what I understand, the Russian nuclear command system is not just Vlad saying "Nuke 'em!" Any launch authorization from Putin also has to go through the Russian General Staff--they have the actual launch codes. In fact, it is the General Staff that has the ability to bypass political authorities in order to launch in the event of a national emergency, not the other way around. In other words, Putin's usage of nuclear weapons depends on the obedience of the very people that Putin is now throwing under the bus for his own failed war. Is the Russian military going to end its world for the sake of this guy? I mean, it's certainly possible. And we can't discount it completely. But I honestly don't buy it.
That leaves Vlad with options like blowing up Kharkiv's power plant, and petulant, punitive "stomp my feet" things that aren't scaring anybody anymore. The Russian media space wants Russia to finally "get tough." But there aren't really any credible means left to do that at the end of six months of military nonsense. The cupboard is pretty much bare.
All in all, after last week, when Ukraine has demonstrated that they 1) actually can launch multiple sophisticated combined arms offensives, 2) have achieved utter moral superiority on the battlefield, and 3) now firmly control the strategic initiative, I simply do not think that Russia is going to win this war. Not if "Winning" is defined as the physical occupation of all, or even substantial portions of Ukraine. And I don't think the Russian military does, either. Intriguingly, according to an article posted just a few hours ago, real estate prices in the Crimea have collapsed by 30-50% in the past week. The writing on the wall is becoming clearer.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 13, 2022 8:27:47 GMT
One of John R Bruning's sources of information is this chap, and he's well worth listening to for the big picture stuff.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 12, 2022 6:42:24 GMT
From John R Bruning
Persistent rumors tonight have Russian and Ukrainian military leaders meeting at the Ukrainian town of Volchansk to discuss the surrender of all Russia forces defending Kherson. This would be something like 10-20,000 men.
The Ukrainians have set up a hotline Russian soldiers can call to offer their surrender. And it is being used.
The Russian Army is in bad shape.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 11, 2022 21:02:56 GMT
The Championship has been over for some time. That’s fine but he’s had a right shove to make sure he does, the amount of stuff that’s gone on his favour puts me in mind of a conspiracy. You couldn’t make it up. Right place right time I guess If ever there was a place to do Max over, it's at Monza. For me it's more likely that they wanted to help Charles and screwed it up.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 11, 2022 20:57:33 GMT
Abu Dhabi was bent, today was just sheer incompetence. It was clear that was a red flag incident and it would have given the race a potentially exciting ending. He’s got the best car and is probably the best driver but Verstappen is being handed the title on a plate The Championship has been over for some time.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 11, 2022 20:42:11 GMT
So you can finish a race under a safety car then ?? The sport is as bent as hell, Hamilton must be livid Abu Dhabi was bent, today was just sheer incompetence.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 11, 2022 20:40:31 GMT
Looks like time is running out for those that want to appease Putin...
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 10, 2022 12:18:36 GMT
Jon Parshall, yesterday.
Ukraine Update. Disclaimer WWII historian using open source intel. TL;DR: a genuine hot mess for the Russians outside Kharkiv. The situation is very fluid at the moment, but all sources agree that the Ukrainians have punched a nice, big hole through Russian lines and are threatening the entire Russian grouping around Izyum. Photographs would tend to support the notion that the Ukrainians are on the outskirts of Kupiansk, which is the major rail hub for the railroad that then moves southwest to Izyum. This would suggest in turn that Ukrainian forces have pushed something around 70km (42 miles) from their starting line. That's more movement than we've seen in months.
Russian sources are even more pessimistic, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are all the way to the River Oskil, meaning that the rail line to Izyum (which runs down the west side of the river) is already cut. There are still roads running into the town from further south, but the logistical situation for the Russians isn't looking great. And giving up 1000 sq. km. of terrain in two days isn't a good look, either. ISW has noted that the Russian mil-blogger community is basically losing its shit, because the situation is moving so fast that the Russian MoD isn't being given the time to come up with a counter-narrative that makes any semblance of sense to anyone.
One of the Russian-leaning English-language Youtubers I checked out had a number of comments suggesting that, "Oh, I'm sure the Russian command must have seen this coming. They're probably just luring the Ukrainians out of their trenches and into a trap. We'll be counter-punching hard soon against their salient, mwuahaha!" Maybe so, m'dude. But having the Russian area commander apparently captured by the UAF during their initial drive doesn't suggest that this hypothetical clever Russian ruse is exactly clickin' like a Swiss watch, now does it? Likewise, assertions that the Russians will be bringing "very powerful" reinforcements to this area ring rather hollow, considering the best troops in the area were moved south and placed in the Kherson salient.
Do I think the Ukrainian offense will poop out? Sure it will. All offensives have a culmination point. This operation (thus far) is being mounted by basically a division worth of Ukrainian troops. It's not going to end the war, or anything like that. But it demonstrates that the Ukrainians are capable of carrying out reasonably sophisticated combined-arms offensives. That's a *huge* game changer, and bodes ill for Russia in the long-term. Remember: the NATO training program for Ukraine is just getting geared up. These brigades are apparently fresh out of that training mill, and using good equipment. But a year from now, *the entire Ukrainian Army is going to be this good* (and probably transitioned largely to NATO-standard heavy weapons to boot.) Count your children now, Vladimir...
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 5, 2022 14:01:24 GMT
At what point do we recognise that sanctions aren't working and are in turn having a catastrophic effect on our own nation? We know he's an awful human being but surely the time has come where we need to agree a deal? Pretty sure Ellie Goulding's ghastly attempt at pro-Ukraine propaganda and climate change bollocks, Zelensky's Vogue shoots and Ben Stiller's miraculous walk through a war zone wont cut through with the British (and European) public when they can't keep the lights on this winter. Don't get me wrong, our sickening media are playing their part with the standard covid esc scare mongering against the backdrop of the cost of living crisis but make no mistake about it, carry on with the lack of negotiation efforts combined with endless/pointless sanctioning and shit is going to get a fuck load worse this winter. If only Neville Chamberlain was still around to do the negotiations, we would soon have peace in our times.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 5, 2022 9:43:45 GMT
I have zero problems with George yesterday. he made the right call to make the pit stop and was right to pass Lewis.
It's a driver's job to put himself in the best potential position, and therefore was very smart of him to make the stop for new tyres.
Lewis was done over by the VSC and should have realised his chance of a win was over, he could have pitted for new tyres and finished second, but he and the team gambled and lost on track position.
If George had sat behind a slow Lewis there's a good chance that the team would have ended up with a 3-4 instead of the 2-4 they achieved.
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