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Post by grayscfc on Mar 8, 2009 12:51:57 GMT
i`ll go with PC on this one & say 10 more points should do us fine but 40 will seal it i reckon, i just hope we get them before the final game at arsenal- although how ace would it be to get summat there to keep us up!!!
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Post by Beloved Monkfish on Mar 8, 2009 13:17:16 GMT
Having sort of done the maths, if we carry on as we are we'll get about another 9 points. To be honest I think about 38 will be enough, but rather than aiming for a points tally we should take every game as it comes and on its merit and forget about points totals. I thiink TP has said as much in his interviews, that the nest game is always the most important one and he's right.
To be honest I'm shitting myself, and there'll be many more twists and turns to come.
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Post by th05 on Mar 8, 2009 13:18:58 GMT
I don't think 37 will do it, 40 for me.
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Post by tawafij70 on Mar 8, 2009 13:28:23 GMT
I have us getting 41 points - thats with home WINS against Boro, W.Ham and Wigan(who will both be mid table - the best opponents at this time of the season)
DRAWS against Newcastle, Hull and W.Brom and DEFEATS against Everton,Blackburn,Fulham and Arsenal.
I get W.Brom, Middlesboro and Hull going down. Newcastle and Portsmouth just safe on 39 points!!
To me the two vital games we have left are Boro at home (a must win) and Hull away (must not lose)
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Post by kiwi on Mar 8, 2009 13:47:57 GMT
Same site says we,re odds on get relagated as well! like covering their arses those bookies do . Personally i think we,re good enough get the 10-12 pts that will keep us up and may just lump some reddies on at 5/6 to put my money where my mouth is! come on you rip roaring potters ;D
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Post by Squeekster on Mar 8, 2009 14:48:34 GMT
Same site says we,re odds on get relagated as well! like covering their arses those bookies do . Personally i think we,re good enough get the 10-12 pts that will keep us up and may just lump some reddies on at 5/6 to put my money where my mouth is! come on you rip roaring potters ;D Where is Dresvgas Kiwi?
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Post by kiwi on Mar 8, 2009 14:59:55 GMT
Same site says we,re odds on get relagated as well! like covering their arses those bookies do . Personally i think we,re good enough get the 10-12 pts that will keep us up and may just lump some reddies on at 5/6 to put my money where my mouth is! come on you rip roaring potters ;D Where is Dresvgas Kiwi? dresden near longton or downtown LA (longton area) if you prefer that ;D
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Post by Squeekster on Mar 8, 2009 15:06:54 GMT
dresden near longton or downtown LA (longton area) if you prefer that ;D Lol i lived in New Zealand in Danivegas (Danevirke) just saw your user name and thought of it.
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Post by kiwi on Mar 8, 2009 15:13:48 GMT
i wish mate! nah it,s just my nickname. always fancied oz me sen. got mate over there so you never know
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Post by Squeekster on Mar 8, 2009 15:20:04 GMT
i wish mate! nah it,s just my nickname. always fancied oz me sen. got mate over there so you never know I went to oz too its awesome mate get thee sen over their.
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Post by PMac on Mar 8, 2009 15:22:13 GMT
Even with WBA on 22 points I still think a MINIMUM of 40 points will be required to keep us enjoying Premiership football next season.
Can you imagine:
14k average crowds again. No MOTD coverage every game. No Football First highlights. No Premiership media coverage. No World Class players at the Brit. No incentive for decent signings. No Liverpool, ManUre, Chelsea games.
What a downer that would be! We simply cannot give this league up and MUST win most of, if not all our home games.
There is a possibility history could repeat itself with Arsenal breaking the hearts of many thousands of STokies - yet again!
We must be mathematically safe BEFORE the Emirates game!
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Post by kiwi on Mar 8, 2009 15:24:53 GMT
i,ll have to accidentally invite myself over to coincide with the next ashes tour! with big stoke flag of course ;D
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Mar 8, 2009 15:29:23 GMT
It's exciting stuff whatever happens... The battle for survival is much more interesting than all that top 4 bollox.... Hopefully it will be settled by the Wigan game and we can use that occasion to celebrate...like we did last May
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Post by markscfc72 on Mar 8, 2009 15:32:39 GMT
its possible to stay up with 36
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Post by PMac on Mar 8, 2009 15:38:48 GMT
What's that based on Mark?
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Post by markscfc72 on Mar 8, 2009 15:39:46 GMT
my predicted scores
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Post by PMac on Mar 8, 2009 15:41:51 GMT
Cool - you'll do fer me mate! Are they realistic? Can you post what you think they'll be? Ta
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2009 15:42:10 GMT
37 is not enough - my guess -definitely 40 plus - could be as high as 43 -45 even ?
sooner we get the points the better
3 points next week would be a shock result to the rest of the prem - but we are capable of pulling this off now (imho)
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Post by markscfc72 on Mar 8, 2009 15:48:31 GMT
Cool - you'll do fer me mate! Are they realistic? Can you post what you think they'll be? Ta got rid of the page now but nothing too daft, just basically people who are down there and playing each other mainly home wins and draws with the odd away win, but it does show, nobody can really say with any great confidence you will defo need X amount of points
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Post by PMac on Mar 8, 2009 15:55:19 GMT
No worries MArk - Seems a logical assumption though.... I have a sneaky feeling "someone" will get a few shock results.... I hope to God it's not big Sam at Blackburn.... That game (for me) is the biggest 6 pointer we'll have this season at the Brit.
We could do with at least 1 away win... improving our goal difference by 4 or 5 to bring us inline with those around us and hoping the likes of Spurs, Bolton, Wigan start to create a gap... taking us with them to make it hard for the bottom 4 to catch us.
'Borough at home is a Huuuuge game for us that many will have down as a 3 pointer... Jeezzz... I'll be shittin it at these games ;D
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Post by RICH68 on Mar 8, 2009 15:56:45 GMT
its possible to stay up with 36 You must have given Hull a right pasting to come up with that ;D
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Post by markscfc72 on Mar 8, 2009 16:01:42 GMT
oh yeah just 3 more points than they have now, didnt reailse. it wasnt intentional lol
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Mar 8, 2009 16:03:41 GMT
One problem with all prediction-work is that it 'extrapolates' from current form and expectations....which is fine if current form/expectations are a constant...but as we know they aren't..There's always a couple of variables in there that spoil the party..You can absolutely guarantee that one of our relegation rivals will suddenly hit form and all of a sudden..BANG..out go the prediction leagues and in comes the tranquilizers...
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Post by Paul Spencer on Mar 9, 2009 2:43:35 GMT
its possible to stay up with 36 Bloody hell Mark, you'd get a lot of love if you posted that on the Pompey messageboards!
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Post by kidsgrove4 on Mar 9, 2009 2:49:33 GMT
My calculation , at worst ( meaning other games going against us, and a few of the teams below us upsetting the likes of Man U, Liverpool, Villa, etc) is that we are going to be safe , guaranteed, with 41 points.
What we cannot do is LOSE to anyone on equal or worst points at present , then we may be safe from anywhere from 35-40. 41 guarantees it, though.
A point at Everton would be a great start. Need to beat Mowbray Town for sure. Need the points at home.
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Post by markscfc72 on Mar 9, 2009 2:54:14 GMT
its possible to stay up with 36 Bloody hell Mark, you'd get a lot of love if you posted that on the Pompey messageboards! Jesus i hadnt noticed that either, i must be a secret pompey fan!, if they get 20 points from the remaining 10 games ill eat me stoke top lol
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Post by cousindupree on Mar 9, 2009 8:28:50 GMT
Releagation threatened teams dont suddenly start winning a high percentage of games...thats because they are they are sown at the bottom for a reason...they are not that good.So why would they suddenly turn form on its head? The liklihood is that they may battle for a few draws that they wouldn't have got earlier in the season. the points per game at the bottom is around 1 per game which is likely to continue. Some teams will improve on 1 pt per game but not all of them...if we improve on that we will be ok...3 wins and a draw will see us home especially if the wins are against M'boro Hull and Blackburn....but it will be very tight
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Post by OldStokie on Mar 9, 2009 10:13:15 GMT
The win against Bolton was a massive one. We will soon be back to full strength and as long as we can steer clear of injuries to key players and stop the silly sending offs, we will stay up. I reckon we will get another 13 points to finish on 42 points.
Everton away - 0 pts. Boro home = 3 pts. WBA away = 1 pts. N'castle home = 1 pts. Blackburn home = 3 pts. Fulham away = 0 pts. W.Ham home = 1 pts. Hull City away = 1 pts. Wigan home = 3 pts. Arse away = 0 pts.
OS.
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Post by York 'Force 10' Stokie on Mar 9, 2009 13:02:14 GMT
My take on it for what its worth is as follows but it is all guesswork really as i think the nearer to the end of the season you get, sometimes the form book goes out of the window with teams having nowt to play for. (Excludes top and bottom in this statement).
NEWCASTLE Played 28 Points 28 GD -11 Hull (A) DRAW Arsenal (H) LOSE Chelsea (H) LOSE Stoke (A) DRAW Tottenham (A) LOSE Portsmouth (H) DRAW Liverpool (A) LOSE Middlesborough (H) WIN Fulham (H) WIN Aston Villa (A) LOSE
I make 9 points, total 37
BLACKBURN Played 27 Points 27 GD -13 Fulham (A) DRAW Arsenal (A) LOSE West Ham(H) WIN Tottenham (H) DRAW Liverpool (A) LOSE Stoke (A) DRAW Wigan (H) WIN Man City (A) DRAW Portsmouth (H) DRAW Chelsea (A) LOSE West Brom (H) WIN
I think 14 more points, total 41
MIDDLESBOROUGH Played 28 Points 26 GD -20 Portsmouth (H) DRAW Stoke (A) DRAW Bolton (A) LOSE Hull (H) WIN Fulham (H) WIN Arsenal (A) LOSE Man Utd (H) LOSE Newcastle (A) LOSE Aston Villa (H) LOSE West Ham (A) DRAW
About 9 more points? Would give them 35
WEST BROM Played 28 Points 22 GD-29 West Ham (A)LOSE Bolton (H) DRAW Stoke (H) DRAW Portsmouth (A) LOSE Man City (A) LOSE Sunderland (H) WIN Tottenham (A) LOSE Wigan (H) WIN Liverpool (H) LOSE Blackburn (A) DRAW
I think 9pts, total 31.
This is without doing Portsmouth, Ours and others. I think 38 points could be enough, but as other people have suggested, the sooner we get to 40 the better. Mind you, I have given us only 3 points against the above 3 teams, so we need 6 points from all the others to make the 38.
I do think though that from here on in it is going to be a bit of a lottery at this time of year, what with the occasional shock result and teams with nothing to play for other than league position and the money that comes with finishing higher up........
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Post by Dr Oetcake on Mar 9, 2009 13:18:07 GMT
I think even as a Valeite, Twitters speaks the truth. I think we will need 41 points. Its critical that TP accept the "Bolton Paradigm" as a new stretegy and realise both home and way that a 442 with width should be an option. We also have to defend higher up the pitch towards the end of games, when I think of the points we have chucked away in the last 5 minutes of games, it makes me feel unwell....
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