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Post by sheikhmomo on Mar 7, 2009 17:19:13 GMT
will be enough. They're talking shit aren't they ???
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Post by benscfc on Mar 7, 2009 17:21:25 GMT
not sure really i dont think so its not a big gap between
18th and 13th
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Post by lordeffinghamhunt on Mar 7, 2009 17:21:39 GMT
They are. Its going to take at least 40! Anything less and its Championship football.
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Post by march4 on Mar 7, 2009 17:22:44 GMT
The sooner we get to 40, the happier I will be.
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Post by sheikhmomo on Mar 7, 2009 17:22:55 GMT
I might add I've just heard Garth Crooks suggest it, which may answer my original question.
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Post by PickSCFC on Mar 7, 2009 17:23:18 GMT
the sooner we get to 40 the more pissed of lord eff will be
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Post by Stafford-Stokie on Mar 7, 2009 17:26:52 GMT
The thing is with teams near the bottom playing each other they are going to take points from each other. I think this will keep the points total down. I agree though, the sooner we hit 40 the better.
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Mar 7, 2009 17:37:38 GMT
They are. Its going to take at least 40! Anything less and its Championship football. Bollocks! How do you know that for a fact anymore than the people saying 37 will do? Who knows what we'll need. No-one in reality but I'd guess at 38. The reasoning being that not all the teams round us can go on good runs and some of them (toon particularly) have rock hard run ins. |
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Post by Soi Cowboy on Mar 7, 2009 17:42:40 GMT
Impossible to say.
Only way to guarantee is to stay above the bottom 3.
Sound simple but the way it is
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Post by sheikh al dubai bin stokie on Mar 7, 2009 17:48:11 GMT
08 - Fulham were safe on 36
07 - Wigham were safe on 38
06 - Portsmouth were safe on 38
05 - Brazil were safe on 34
04 - Everton were safe on 39
03 - Bolton were safe on 44
02 - Blunderland were safe on 40
01 - Derby were safe on 42
00 - Bradford were safe on 36
so.. read into that what you will.. but id say saftey is between 38 and 40
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Post by lancer on Mar 7, 2009 17:52:15 GMT
Think we'll need, 40-41 to be aboluetly sure. But what do I know?
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Mar 7, 2009 17:52:47 GMT
Well done Dubai.
So that debunks the "40 points is a must" rule.
Thats not to say I won't breathe a sigh of relief when we get to 40.
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Post by Ddraigcoch on Mar 7, 2009 17:53:33 GMT
10 more points and were odds on to stay up ;D
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Post by Ddraigcoch on Mar 7, 2009 17:54:47 GMT
You can almost smell survival.
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Post by Bick on Mar 7, 2009 17:59:12 GMT
I think that about 38 will be safe!
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Mar 7, 2009 18:23:19 GMT
If you look at the "Run in" table on the link below then on season's form (ie if all teams carry on at their season's rate of getting results) then 39 would be safe. However the run in on "current form" (last 8 games results) suggests 36 could be safe. I reckon it could be as high as 38 but no higher - some clubs at the bottom have very hard run ins. stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/runin.htmlEDIT - but l won't start to relax until we get 40 |
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Mar 7, 2009 19:07:06 GMT
One thing is for sure..if we aim for 37 points we're going down... Any hint or mere sliver of complacency and we're well and truly fucked...  |
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Post by foreverstoke on Mar 7, 2009 19:16:05 GMT
The sooner we get to 40, the happier I will be. really....? ??? ;D |
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Post by cheeseinmybum on Mar 7, 2009 19:27:56 GMT
08 - Fulham were safe on 36 07 - Wigham were safe on 38 06 - Portsmouth were safe on 38 05 - Brazil were safe on 34 04 - Everton were safe on 39 03 - Bolton were safe on 44 02 - Blunderland were safe on 40 01 - Derby were safe on 42 00 - Bradford were safe on 36 so.. read into that what you will.. but id say saftey is between 38 and 40 they aren't exactlt representative of what you needed to stay up. Those are the points the 4th from bottom team attained. I only know because I looked it up myself Last few seasons in reverse 37 39 35 34 34 43 37 35 34(2000/1) is what was needed to finish 1pt outside the bottom 3 |
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Post by interestedobserver on Mar 7, 2009 19:30:41 GMT
At this point, I calculate that 37 points has roughly a 50% chance of being enough to survive. chancebot.com/epl/overview.phpBut it's impossible for anybody to say with absolute certainity what the minimum will be to survive. Realistically, it could be anywhere from 35 to 40. |
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Post by henry on Mar 7, 2009 20:14:46 GMT
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Post by lordb on Mar 7, 2009 20:57:20 GMT
our goal difference is unlikely to be better than many sides so I think 38 points will be needed.
think we will be comfortably safe
WBA & Newcastle down
then its between Boro,Blackburn,Pompey,Hull to go down
I reckon Pompey
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Post by Davef on Mar 7, 2009 21:11:29 GMT
There's a really significant game in the week - Fulham v Blackburn. Fulham can put their season to bed if they win that one, but a defeat could see them start to look over their shoulders.
They have a difficult run in, and with a poor result last week against Hull and their pathetic capitulation tonight against The Shit (yeah, I know it was in the cup, but it hardly gives them confidence going into the Blackburn game) I wouldn't rule them out as being a shock outsider to go down.
Like us, their season has been built on their home form, but if it goes tits up, like it's threatened to over the past few days, then they could be in trouble.
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Post by euan ouzami on Mar 7, 2009 21:19:26 GMT
It would be a tragic irony if, having won automatic promotion with the fewest points for years, we were relegated with one of the highest number of points. Some seasons we'd have been about 5 points from safety now
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Post by dwr17477 on Mar 8, 2009 0:06:04 GMT
TP has always said that there is a points total we have been aiming for all season - I just hope it's 40. This has to be the safety zone. I reckon the surprise team to be sucked down into the mire will be Wigan. They think they're safe and are already on the beach. I'm not so sure.
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Post by twitters on Mar 8, 2009 11:40:34 GMT
I think you need to win 4 games to be safe. I have a gut feeling 40 points won't be enough.
You need to win at home to Boro and Blackburn and away at Hull and West Brom to be safe and all four games should be winable.
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Post by RICH68 on Mar 8, 2009 11:50:07 GMT
Have just done the BBC predictor again and been really hard on us (2 more wins and 2 draws) We still survive on 37 points  |
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Post by sheikhmomo on Mar 8, 2009 11:56:53 GMT
If you do feel that 37 will stay up the 5/6 on us staying up represents fantastic value. We must rate a much shorter price than that to get 8 points from our last ten games with the majority of them against sides in the bottom half. |
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Post by trebor63 on Mar 8, 2009 12:42:44 GMT
Well if you look at each teams games left and where they currently are there will be one hell of a surge of shock results if it was a high total!
NEWCASTLE Played 28 Points 28 GD -11
Hull (A) DRAW
Arsenal (H) DRAW
Chelsea (H) LOSE
Stoke (A) DRAW
Tottenham (A) LOSE
Portsmouth (H) WIN
Liverpool (A) LOSE
Middlesborough (H) DRAW
Fulham (H) WIN
Aston Villa (A) LOSE
Obviously my guesses are just that! But I reckon about ten more points is fair and that would put them on 38
BLACKBURN Played 27 Points 27 GD -13
Fulham (A) LOSE
Arsenal (A) LOSE
West Ham(H) WIN
Tottenham (H) DRAW
Liverpool (A) LOSE
Stoke (A) DRAW
Wigan (H) DRAW
Man City (A) LOSE
Portsmouth (H) WIN
Chelsea (A) LOSE
West Brom (H) WIN
Again about 12 more points seems fair. Would be on 39
MIDDLESBOROUGH Played 28 Points 26 GD -20
Portsmouth (H) WIN
Stoke (A) DRAW
Bolton (A) DRAW
Hull (H) WIN
Fulham (H) WIN
Arsenal (A) LOSE
Man Utd (H) LOSE
Newcastle (A) DRAW
Aston Villa (H) DRAW
West Ham (A) LOSE
About 13 more points? Would give them 39
WEST BROM Played 28 Points 22 GD-29
West Ham (A)LOSE
Bolton (H) WIN
Stoke (H) WIN
Portsmouth (A) LOSE
Man City (A) LOSE
Sunderland (H) WIN
Tottenham (A) LOSE
Wigan (H) WIN
Liverpool (H) WIN
Blackburn (A) DRAW
Didn't even attempt to guess what they'll actually do! Let them win every home game and pinch another away point and they still ended up on 38 points!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2009 12:50:56 GMT
I have just 35 points to stay up, with Toon going down on 34(along with boro and WBA), and Hull staying up on 36. We finish 12th on 46 points  With Villa scraping into champions league 2 points ahead of Arse. |
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With Villa scraping into champions league 2 points ahead of Arse.
