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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 15, 2024 12:37:53 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely
We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with.
I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required.
Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Feb 15, 2024 12:38:43 GMT
We'll be fine, starting with 3 points on Saturday......
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Post by Goonie on Feb 15, 2024 12:45:32 GMT
We'll be fine, staring with 3 points on Saturday...... Cue Barry Davis 😁 |
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Post by willieeetmiout on Feb 15, 2024 12:46:55 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with. I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required. Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark. That would be the Leeds who couldn't beat us at home and the Southampton who required numerous crap referring decisions to beat us at home? |
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Post by flea79 on Feb 15, 2024 12:50:40 GMT
just based on ppg average currently 42 and above would see us safe, our average equates too about 50 points for the season, its a very poor state of affairs none the less
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Post by nigerianstokie on Feb 15, 2024 13:16:34 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with. I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required. Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark. I genuinely believe 40-43 could see us safe this year. The bottom 3 just look so poor. |
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Post by dirtygary69 on Feb 15, 2024 13:20:54 GMT
Another 3 wins probably sees us safe, with a few draws as well. Would like to see us get up towards 60 points, but think we're more likely to get 48-53.
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Post by potter25 on Feb 15, 2024 13:41:36 GMT
Also think Millwall will finish bottom 3 below QPR
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Post by mrrine on Feb 15, 2024 18:39:50 GMT
Also think Millwall will finish bottom 3 below QPR Here's hoping. Rat club. |
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Post by Numismatist on Feb 15, 2024 18:43:58 GMT
Think 45/46 will be the survival number.
Bottom two as good as dead and the T3/4 picking up points at an insane rate to neutralise what the strugglers can achieve.
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Post by Trouserdog on Feb 15, 2024 18:47:11 GMT
I didn't think QPR looked too bad to be honest- certainly no worse than other teams that have turned up here and taken points off us. I can see them getting a few wins between now and the end of the season, and certainly wouldn't write them off.
It's very rare that you need 50 points to survive. Doubt it'll be that high this year either. 4 wins would take us to 47, which would be touch and go, but with a few draws thrown in as well we'd definitely survive.
Sixteen games left and we've only got to win a quarter of them. That win last night was massive.
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 15, 2024 19:45:13 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with. I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required. Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark. That would be the Leeds who couldn't beat us at home and the Southampton who required numerous crap referring decisions to beat us at home? Both teams are kind of hitting their stride now though - whereas we on the other hand. Can't say I am looking forward to going to Leeds, that has the potential of being a cricket score - would settle for a respectable 3-1 defeat and confidence not shattered as it stands. Yes, that is how low my hopes and expectations have sunk  |
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 15, 2024 19:55:45 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with. I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required. Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark. I genuinely believe 40-43 could see us safe this year. The bottom 3 just look so poor. I think QPR will get higher than 40pts and be at least in the mid 40's, Millwall are in freefall like us, so they could collapse and set a low total. 10pts more might possibly be enough though - so we have to scrap for every point - I have a feeling points are not going to come easily That said, wins against Bardiff and Boro and I will be talking play-offs next week |
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Post by Roger Everyone on Feb 15, 2024 20:01:36 GMT
That would be the Leeds who couldn't beat us at home and the Southampton who required numerous crap referring decisions to beat us at home? Both teams are kind of hitting their stride now though - whereas we on the other hand. Can't say I am looking forward to going to Leeds, that has the potential of being a cricket score - would settle for a respectable 3-1 defeat and confidence not shattered as it stands. Yes, that is how low my hopes and expectations have sunk Leeds will be one of the games when we learn how good SS tactics are. It's the type of game where you shut up shop and try and grind out a draw. |
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 15, 2024 20:23:51 GMT
Both teams are kind of hitting their stride now though - whereas we on the other hand. Can't say I am looking forward to going to Leeds, that has the potential of being a cricket score - would settle for a respectable 3-1 defeat and confidence not shattered as it stands. Yes, that is how low my hopes and expectations have sunk Leeds will be one of the games when we learn how good SS tactics are. It's the type of game where you shut up shop and try and grind out a draw. AN tried to shut up shop away at Leicester and got hammered for it. I think there is a difference between just sitting back waiting to get beat and trying to keep the score down - and having bit of a plan to get forward and cause some trouble in their penalty area - while not going totally gung-ho. Certainly will see how good his tactics are in that game, hopefully better than they were against Leicester - and maybe we can be their bogey team this year |
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Post by Stokester on Feb 15, 2024 20:45:55 GMT
Just looked and the average points needed to survive over the past 10 years is 45.
Means we need three wins and a draw, or two wins and four draws.
What a difference a win makes and all that but after yesterday it feels infinitely more doable.
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Post by mickstupp on Feb 15, 2024 20:57:29 GMT
Over the last decade, we’ve seen points for survival vary from 51 in 2017 to 38 in 2022. There’s also the additional caveat of points deductions from that likes of Wigan and Reading which doesn’t look like happening this year. We are looking at 3 more wins and 4 draws. Quite how we’ve got into this sorry mess is another story….
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Post by thepottypotter on Feb 15, 2024 21:16:09 GMT
Over the last decade, we’ve seen points for survival vary from 51 in 2017 to 38 in 2022. There’s also the additional caveat of points deductions from that likes of Wigan and Reading which doesn’t look like happening this year. We are looking at 3 more wins and 4 draws. Quite how we’ve got into this sorry mess is another story…. Ricky Martin is how |
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 15, 2024 22:26:27 GMT
Over the last decade, we’ve seen points for survival vary from 51 in 2017 to 38 in 2022. There’s also the additional caveat of points deductions from that likes of Wigan and Reading which doesn’t look like happening this year. We are looking at 3 more wins and 4 draws. Quite how we’ve got into this sorry mess is another story…. If we do get out of this mess, then some serious questions need asking - we can't just go buying/selling a cart load of players pre-season again. Massive change needed from top down - personally like to see that start with the Coates family calling it a day |
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Post by terrorofturfmoor on Feb 15, 2024 22:35:15 GMT
We've got to really dig in deep, because other teams will be trying to do the same now!!!
It wasn't the prettiest of football on show the other night, but we got the points.... If that's what it takes to keep us up this season, we're going to have to suck it up and take it!!!
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Post by malteser68 on Feb 15, 2024 22:58:56 GMT
We are too good to go down
And there’s no chance in hell that we will go down
But this should not be the benchmark for our great club
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 15, 2024 22:59:09 GMT
I still expect us to finish in the dizzying heights of 14th.
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Post by ohbottom on Feb 15, 2024 23:03:39 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with. I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required. Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark. Or from a different perspective... QPR 6 points behind us, have games against Leicester & Leeds, so scrub those off, need 6 wins and 3 draws from the other 12 games Sheff Weds 9 points behind, games against Leeds & Ipswich, need 7 wins and 3 draws from other 12 games Millwall 2 points behind us, games against Leicester, Leeds, Soton, so need 5 wins and 2 draws (or 4 wins and 5 draws) from 11 games.... Forget Rotherham, they're down. We're safe!  Edit: Seriously though, extrapolating PPG to the end of the season, it's looking like the relegation line could be as low as 43 points. Surely we can get that many - can't we....? |
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 17, 2024 0:48:22 GMT
Needed to win 5 and draw 3 before last night to get to the magical 50pt mark, which was looking highly unlikely We now need 4 wins and 3 draws from our remaining 14 games, given that 2 of those games are away to Leeds & Southampton - probably only 12 games left where we will be playing teams that we could possibly compete with. I don't think we will make the 50pt mark and I also think it will be the highest safety tally for a while, but still think mid 40's could see us safe - which would mean a few wins and draws required. Thoughts on how many points required for safety and whether Stoke are capable of getting near the 50pt mark. Or from a different perspective... QPR 6 points behind us, have games against Leicester & Leeds, so scrub those off, need 6 wins and 3 draws from the other 12 games Sheff Weds 9 points behind, games against Leeds & Ipswich, need 7 wins and 3 draws from other 12 games Millwall 2 points behind us, games against Leicester, Leeds, Soton, so need 5 wins and 2 draws (or 4 wins and 5 draws) from 11 games.... Forget Rotherham, they're down. We're safe! Edit: Seriously though, extrapolating PPG to the end of the season, it's looking like the relegation line could be as low as 43 points. Surely we can get that many - can't we....? Winning 1 of the next 2 would be nice or even 2 battling draws, we have got a tough March though. Although the performance against QPR did not fill me with confidence, the fact that we showed some heart did - the 3 pts, given the team we were playing was also massive. Until we are mathematically safe though, I don't think we can rest, even if we win the next 2 games we are more than capably of losing 4 or 5 on the bounce and being straight back in the mess. Hope you are correct with 43pts and your analysis - if we can't get to that then we don't deserve to stay up |
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Post by RF10 on Feb 17, 2024 11:05:03 GMT
We've got 14 points from last 14 games with just 3 wins in that time. There's 14 games left so even on the form of previous lot we should survive.
Although them wins did come against teams currently in bottom 7.
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Post by rickyfullerbeer on Feb 17, 2024 11:08:41 GMT
Feels like we're already hanging out for that Huddersfield game on April 1st!
We'll no doubt weasel a win before that but you couldn't be hopeful of anything at this moment in time. Don't think I've ever been so negative on us but we've become an embarrassment.
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Post by tuum on Feb 17, 2024 12:25:43 GMT
Have a look at QPR's fixtures to end of March. They have it considerably more difficult than we do
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olias
Academy Starlet
Posts: 192
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Post by olias on Feb 17, 2024 14:38:35 GMT
Crazy that, lately, survival in this league is, seemingly, getting characterized as a successful season.
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Post by citynickscfc on Feb 17, 2024 16:57:13 GMT
Have a look at QPR's fixtures to end of March. They have it considerably more difficult than we do They will be above us by then tho |
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Post by tejstokie on Feb 17, 2024 17:04:09 GMT
Crazy that, lately, survival in this league is, seemingly, getting characterized as a successful season. When you're making coventry look like circa early 2000's chelsea at home on the backfoot its kinda the truth isn't it?
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