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Post by wannabee on May 6, 2022 13:11:52 GMT
That's a fair analysis, but is he really that toxic? In 'normal' parliamentary terms, absolutely so, but he's not a normal politician in the same way that Trump isn't a normal politician. Voters seem not to care about what Johnson does in ways that wouldn't apply to anyone else. I keep hearing rumours that the eventual publication of the Sue Gray report will be so excoriating that he'll have to go. Will he? Really? After all that he's survived so far? I wouldn't bank on it. I think Johnson's biggest problem is that people might simply get fed up with the constant car crash that is his UK government, on top of a cost of living crisis, record recent inflation and what appears to be impending recession. Throw in distance from Brexit (he'll still have some goodwill in the bank from that from some quarters at present) and people might want change. I suspect a hung parliament is the best Labour can hope for. Very few parties overturn an 80 seat majority in one go. The prospect of a hung Parliament is not good news for Starmer as the idea of him being in power with the SNP will be a concern to lots of people in England, not so much because of the independence question (although that will no doubt be important to some people) but because they will fear they will be disadvantaged as a consequence of preference being given to Scotland. The thing with Johnson is the next election should be a shoe in for his party. The fact Labour have a shout, even if it is as part of a coalition, is down to Johnson’s failings. Under FPTP its going to extremely difficult for Labour to get an overall majority especially as SNP have a complete lock in Scotland Partygate will be irrelevant in next GE Of more concern to Tory Party is Boris's ability to fuck up and the following major issues on the Horizon a) Even higher Energy Cost coming down the pipe in the Autumn b) Inflation predicted to top 10% c) Covid Enquiry I think the Publication of Sue Grey Report will see the Tory Grandees sharpening their knives to oust Boris in favour of someone not currently within the inner circle, Ben Wallace might be a good choice The best chance Conservatives have of winning next election is for Rishi to have a giveaway October Budget and then go early in 2023 If 2024 a coalition of Labour/ SNP is most likely outcome
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 6, 2022 13:12:16 GMT
Tories have held more seats than I thought and actually made gains in certain areas. I cannot fathom it. Frustrating when you hear people saying they will still vote Conservative despite admitting they think local services are worse, the national government is a shambles and with a PM who broke the law. Until people start thinking more critically we'll all be burdened with this government. As I've said previously, for some people it's a case of "we don't really care if they burn it all to shit, as long as it's our side that got to burn it all". Endless and relentless tribalism, in other words. I suppose they might be bothered at they very point that whatever it is that is no longer available actually hurts them as an individual, but up until then, it's other people who are suffering, so why care?
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 6, 2022 13:16:49 GMT
a coalition or proportional representation will give rise to indecisive policies . no harsh actions will be taken by the controlling group .The delay in Brexit was an example of no overall control at its worst when the country was in effect governed by the whims of idiot Bercow . At least if you've got a single party in power with a majority the public has someone to blame .
I would agree, but if that single party in power only gets 20 or 25% of the electorate voting for them in order to get their majority, there is something exceptionally wrong about our system. Consider that only 29.3% of eligible voters voted Tory at the last election, yet they have a big majority and hold 56.2% of seats in the Commons. Not really very representative of the vote. The majority of other western democracies have some form of proportional voting system. They operate just fine. Ours doesn’t, and it still operates badly, as you pointed out. Yes, it's pretty obviously an out-dated, disproportional and unrepresentative system. The system itself isn't responsible for the nature of the governments that are elected - you can have good and bad governments under both PR and FPTP. However, in terms of analyses of representative democracy, FPTP always comes out as the worst option, simply because it doesn't function well as a method of representing the popular vote, see the SNP and UKIP votes and distribution of seats as evidence for that.
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Post by partickpotter on May 6, 2022 13:26:52 GMT
The prospect of a hung Parliament is not good news for Starmer as the idea of him being in power with the SNP will be a concern to lots of people in England, not so much because of the independence question (although that will no doubt be important to some people) but because they will fear they will be disadvantaged as a consequence of preference being given to Scotland. The thing with Johnson is the next election should be a shoe in for his party. The fact Labour have a shout, even if it is as part of a coalition, is down to Johnson’s failings. Under FPTP its going to extremely difficult for Labour to get an overall majority especially as SNP have a complete lock in Scotland Partygate will be irrelevant in next GE Of more concern to Tory Party is Boris's ability to fuck up and the following major issues on the Horizon a) Even higher Energy Cost coming down the pipe in the Autumn b) Inflation predicted to top 10% c) Covid Enquiry I think the Publication of Sue Grey Report will see the Tory Grandees sharpening their knives to oust Boris in favour of someone not currently within the inner circle, Ben Wallace might be a good choice The best chance Conservatives have of winning next election is for Rishi to have a giveaway October Budget and then go early in 2023 If 2024 a coalition of Labour/ SNP is most likely outcome Blimey… I’d completely missed the repeal of the Fixed Term Parliament Act with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. So, we are back in the old world (for good or bad) of ruling parties being able to decide when to call an election. Meaning, as you say, the opportunity exists for Dishi Rishi to offer some sweeties to tempt folk into voting for his party. Anyway, regards Scotland. IMO, Labour need to get their act together up here and become the serious force they used to be if they really want to be a party of government. It’s not acceptable they accept the current position.
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Post by GrahamHyde on May 6, 2022 15:05:40 GMT
Kidsgrove is Tory.
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Post by Northy on May 6, 2022 15:27:49 GMT
Is that a hold or a gain ?
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Post by GrahamHyde on May 6, 2022 15:31:43 GMT
Is that a hold or a gain ? Gain.
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Post by knype on May 6, 2022 15:47:39 GMT
Early signs suggest that the Conservative losses are being spread a bit more evenly across Lab-Lib-Greens than I thought they would. Hopefully this will emphasise the need for the three to work together at the next GE. Fcuk me that is a scary thought, you might as well vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party than a coalition involving those 3 ffs
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Post by knype on May 6, 2022 15:48:14 GMT
Tories have held more seats than I thought and actually made gains in certain areas. I cannot fathom it. Frustrating when you hear people saying they will still vote Conservative despite admitting they think local services are worse, the national government is a shambles and with a PM who broke the law. Until people start thinking more critically we'll all be burdened with this government. As I've said previously, for some people it's a case of "we don't really care if they burn it all to shit, as long as it's our side that got to burn it all". Endless and relentless tribalism, in other words. I suppose they might be bothered at they very point that whatever it is that is no longer available actually hurts them as an individual, but up until then, it's other people who are suffering, so why care? Or the choice of the opposition is worse?
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Post by oggyoggy on May 6, 2022 15:54:51 GMT
I would agree, but if that single party in power only gets 20 or 25% of the electorate voting for them in order to get their majority, there is something exceptionally wrong about our system. Consider that only 29.3% of eligible voters voted Tory at the last election, yet they have a big majority and hold 56.2% of seats in the Commons. Not really very representative of the vote. The majority of other western democracies have some form of proportional voting system. They operate just fine. Ours doesn’t, and it still operates badly, as you pointed out. Easily fixed make turning up to vote compulsory for everyone like the convicts do you can spoil your ballot paper if you want to but you have to turn or get fined. I don’t normally agree with you on the EE board, but I completely agree with this.
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Post by prestwichpotter on May 6, 2022 15:57:31 GMT
Easily fixed make turning up to vote compulsory for everyone like the convicts do you can spoil your ballot paper if you want to but you have to turn or get fined. I don’t normally agree with you on the EE board, but I completely agree with this. There definitely should be a "None of the above" option on the ballot paper.
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Post by theonlooker on May 6, 2022 16:01:49 GMT
Is that a hold or a gain ? Gain. Simply staggering.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 6, 2022 16:19:35 GMT
As I've said previously, for some people it's a case of "we don't really care if they burn it all to shit, as long as it's our side that got to burn it all". Endless and relentless tribalism, in other words. I suppose they might be bothered at they very point that whatever it is that is no longer available actually hurts them as an individual, but up until then, it's other people who are suffering, so why care? Or the choice of the opposition is worse? Yep. Or people simply don't realise (or care?) that they're busy cutting off their own noses to spite their faces? Much like Brexit.
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Post by The Drunken Communist on May 6, 2022 16:32:53 GMT
Or the choice of the opposition is worse? Yep. Or people simply don't realise (or care?) that they're busy cutting off their own noses to spite their faces? Much like Brexit. Or maybe, and I hope you're sitting down for this one 'cos it's quite a leap into the realms of fantasy, but maybe, just maybe your view of the world isn't the one true 'correct' vision you believe it to be, and other people just happen to view things differently. Staggering suggestion I know.
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Post by RipRoaringPotter on May 6, 2022 16:50:58 GMT
Early signs suggest that the Conservative losses are being spread a bit more evenly across Lab-Lib-Greens than I thought they would. Hopefully this will emphasise the need for the three to work together at the next GE. Fcuk me that is a scary thought, you might as well vote for the Monster Raving Loony Party than a coalition involving those 3 ffs A scary thought would be the current lot of Monster Raving Cunts staying in charge.
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Post by lordb on May 6, 2022 17:12:20 GMT
I don’t normally agree with you on the EE board, but I completely agree with this. There definitely should be a "None of the above" option on the ballot paper. Make it compulsory Fine those who don't Give everyone the day off, shut the ballots at 6 or 7 Possibly move to Sunday elections None of the above as an option If none of the above gets a majority hold new election with new candidates
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Post by Northy on May 6, 2022 17:38:46 GMT
Is that a hold or a gain ? Gain. wow, what did the last labour councillor do, sacrifice babies in satanical rituals ?
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Post by RedandWhite90 on May 6, 2022 20:21:34 GMT
-400 seats and counting.
Celebratory curry and beer incoming.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on May 6, 2022 20:25:08 GMT
-400 seats and counting. Celebratory curry and beer incoming. Does it really matter?
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Post by tonythefox on May 6, 2022 20:59:29 GMT
-400 seats and counting. Celebratory curry and beer incoming. Great news Let’s hope it gets to 500 Happy days
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Post by RedandWhite90 on May 6, 2022 21:09:45 GMT
-400 seats and counting. Celebratory curry and beer incoming. Does it really matter? The celebratory curry and beer or the local elections?
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Post by thehartshillbadger on May 6, 2022 21:13:32 GMT
The celebratory curry and beer or the local elections? The local elections. Curry and beer always matter😉
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 6, 2022 21:23:39 GMT
Yep. Or people simply don't realise (or care?) that they're busy cutting off their own noses to spite their faces? Much like Brexit. Or maybe, and I hope you're sitting down for this one 'cos it's quite a leap into the realms of fantasy, but maybe, just maybe your view of the world isn't the one true 'correct' vision you believe it to be, and other people just happen to view things differently. Staggering suggestion I know. Not really. Just opinions, isn't it. They differ. Who'd have thought it? Mine happens to be that Brexit will be seen as a mistake of historical proportions and that, unless you earn more than £100k a year, have kids in private education, enjoy private medical care and don't give much of a shit about other people, voting Tory is really just shooting yourself in the foot.
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Post by RedandWhite90 on May 6, 2022 21:29:30 GMT
The celebratory curry and beer or the local elections? The local elections. Curry and beer always matter😉 Of course they matter, to me all bin collection matter and if they didnt then why would you be here actively participating in the local elections thread. 😉 As a patriot, exercising your democratic vote in General, Local and Europ- well, General and Local always matters. Also thet're an important opportunity to temp check the 'will of the people. To see how much it does matter, check out any rolling news station and the front pages. My personal favourite, is tomorrows Express, which after the figure goes past 450 seats... Magical Madras and a Perfect Pilsner.
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on May 6, 2022 21:34:37 GMT
I see the projection of vote share were this a general election puts the Tories at about 30%. Seems to align with previous assertions on here that about 30% of voters would vote Tory regardless of how utterly shit they are / what they do.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on May 6, 2022 22:50:08 GMT
Or maybe, and I hope you're sitting down for this one 'cos it's quite a leap into the realms of fantasy, but maybe, just maybe your view of the world isn't the one true 'correct' vision you believe it to be, and other people just happen to view things differently. Staggering suggestion I know. Not really. Just opinions, isn't it. They differ. Who'd have thought it? Mine happens to be that Brexit will be seen as a mistake of historical proportions and that, unless you earn more than £100k a year, have kids in private education, enjoy private medical care and don't give much of a shit about other people, voting Tory is really just shooting yourself in the foot. Want to know what an actual mistake of historical proportions was? Lockdowns. We'll all be feeling the pain of that for many years to come. The recession is still 12 to 18 months away but when that hits, I suspect we'll see the carnage that so many millions of sensible Brits warned against.
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Post by GrahamHyde on May 6, 2022 23:41:13 GMT
I see the projection of vote share were this a general election puts the Tories at about 30%. Seems to align with previous assertions on here that about 30% of voters would vote Tory regardless of how utterly shit they are / what they do. Yeah, it's basically their floor. Let's face it, if you haven't shifted from Tory now you never will. I'm surprised that Stoke has now become somewhat of a Tory stronghold, never felt so disconnected with the place to be honest but that's as much my own fault. People can feel and vote how they want though.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 7, 2022 7:24:52 GMT
I see the projection of vote share were this a general election puts the Tories at about 30%. Seems to align with previous assertions on here that about 30% of voters would vote Tory regardless of how utterly shit they are / what they do. Exactly. Political tribalism. The folk Trump was referring to when he said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and lose no support. A belief that, however bad it gets, it's still better than the terrifying alternative...despite the fact that "they're all the same and as bad as each other" in which case you may as well vote at random lol.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 7, 2022 7:31:33 GMT
I see the projection of vote share were this a general election puts the Tories at about 30%. Seems to align with previous assertions on here that about 30% of voters would vote Tory regardless of how utterly shit they are / what they do. Yeah, it's basically their floor. Let's face it, if you haven't shifted from Tory now you never will. I'm surprised that Stoke has now become somewhat of a Tory stronghold, never felt so disconnected with the place to be honest but that's as much my own fault. People can feel and vote how they want though. I suspect that's the Brexit vote playing out. Same in other similar places, like Nuneaton, that also strongly voted Leave and have become much more Conservative. Not really sure what they think is going to get better for them, but perhaps they are so fed up they simply don't care anymore and like the messages about immigrants being sent to Rwanda, looking tough on Russia etc. And things like law-breaking in office, cost of living and the like don't matter so much?
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Post by dutchstokie on May 7, 2022 7:34:40 GMT
The celebratory curry and beer or the local elections? The local elections. Curry and beer always matter😉 #CBM
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