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Post by tachyon on Apr 14, 2021 18:49:45 GMT
Alternate view.
Stoke's last 20 games.
W/D/L 5/6/9. Goals for 20. Goals against 26. Goal Difference -6
Here's our quality & quantity of chances created and allowed (xG).
xG for 24.9. xG against 20.8. expected GD +4.1
Our most likely expected goal difference is +4.1 and it's actually -6. That's a swing to our detriment of 10 goals in 20 games.
You get around five teams a season who go on a 20 game run like this and on average these teams gain 21 points during this run. (Just like we did).
In their next 20 games they gain on average 27.8 points, an "improvement" of 6.8 points and 70% of sides gain more points in this second 20 games than they gained in the initial 20 games.
We're not declining during the last 20 games (our underlying process is actually better
during the most recent 20 game stretch than it was during the first 21 games of the season).
In short, we are a 10th placed team who had the rub of the green up to New Year, but not so much since.
Process > outcome.
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