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Post by luke45 on Nov 1, 2020 14:19:20 GMT
Yesterday was pretty dour to say the least but you wont win many games in this league without surrendering a clear cut chance to the opposition and that in itself was a positive after our showing at Swansea midweek. Yet again though it was apparent that having less possession in games is yielding better results for us and this has been a familiar pattern throughout the season so far.
*No possession stats available for Blackpool (H) on Flash Scores - I can't be arsed checking elsewhere.
Millwall (A) - 0-0 draw - 54% possession
Wolves (A) Cup - 0-1 win - 35% possession
Bristol City (H) - 0-2 loss - 51% possession
Gillingham (H) - 1-0 win - 77% possession
Preston (A) - 0-1 win - 64% possession
Aston Villa (A) Cup - 0-1 win - 38% possession
Birmingham (H) - 1-1 - 65% possession
Luton (A) - 0-2 win - 43% possession
Barnsley (H) - 2-2 - 54% possession
Brentford (H) - 3-2 win - 33% possession
Swansea (A) - 2-0 loss - 50% possession
Rotherham (H) - 1-0 win - 45% possession
Preston away aside, where we played against ten men from 22 minutes onwards we have yet to win a single fixture this season with equal or more possession in a league game. Our only other win in all comps with more possession came against League One opposition in the cup.
2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses with 50% or more possession.
5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses with less than 50% possession.
As frustrating as we are to watch in possession at times I think we have shown on numerous occasions that we can hurt teams by sitting deep sometimes and soaking things up and using Campbell's pace on the break, Jacob Brown is also a valuable asset with his pace as well. Our shape out of possession has been our biggest strength this season, we've looked disciplined and organised and we've developed a resilience that's been missing for a long time. We need to start being more clinical in front of goal but I think we are definitely moving in the right direction despite some pretty uninspiring performances so far.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Nov 1, 2020 14:24:10 GMT
Our inability to keep the ball yesterday was pathetic. The passing was awful from everyone.
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Post by luke45 on Nov 1, 2020 14:29:04 GMT
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Nov 1, 2020 14:51:02 GMT
We’re not going to be able to play that way against everybody though. That’s why Rowett failed, he thought he could set up the most expensively assembled side in the league as plucky underdogs playing on the break. It works against sides who attack you, it doesn’t against teams who let you have the ball and invite you to break them down.
MON himself realises this, which is presumably why he went back to 4-2-3-1 yesterday, even if it didn’t work brilliantly well. He knows he’ll need a way of playing in the games we’re expected to win as well as those where we can try and nick something.
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Nov 1, 2020 15:00:38 GMT
We do have history in this respect, Luke. I seem to remember TP's Stoke sides usually had less possession than their opponents. Hughes' sides had more possession - which was fine for three years then it all started to go tits up and we ended up relegated.
What I find weird when sides have less possession, is how often they score immediately after being under pressure from the opposition. McClean's goal yesterday was a case in point, Rotherham looked like they might nick a goal yesterday, Gunn kicks the ball upfield and a few seconds later we scored.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2020 15:28:59 GMT
Our inability to keep the ball yesterday was pathetic. The passing was awful from everyone. Not just yesterday. I think that almost every team has looked tidier and more assured on the ball than we have, this season. And I think it's contributed to the fact that we haven't really played well yet. It's odd. At times we're terrible in possession, and some of the decision making with the ball has been poor all season. But - possession is just a stat. The days are gone, where 60% possession made you favourites to win. |
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Post by theoptimist on Nov 1, 2020 15:35:31 GMT
No wonder we cant keep any possession when four out of every ten passes results in us giving it away.
That doesnt matter so much for a Pulis team as long ball tends to have these kind of numbers.
For a side that is attempting to play a passing game, 61% passing accuracy is a disgrace.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2020 15:39:40 GMT
No wonder we cant keep any possession when four out of every ten passes results in us giving it away. That doesnt matter so much for a Pulis team as long ball tends to have these kind of numbers. For a side that is attempting to play a passing game, 61% passing accuracy is a disgrace. Are we attempting to play a passing game though? I felt like much of the football player was long balls into the channels or up to McClean/Powell/Fletcher for a flick on. We haven’t really played much of a passing game under O’Neill. |
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Post by hardcastle on Nov 1, 2020 19:52:08 GMT
Definitely. While we all think MON has done great since Nathan Jones was 'relieved of his duties', no-one can argue that Michael doesn't like a long ball. The exception being Thompson's progressive driving forward and short passing game Vs Gillingham in the League Cup. Hasn't quite hit those heights since alas.
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Post by J-Roar on Nov 1, 2020 20:00:32 GMT
Possession without purpose is toss - it's used by managers to fool people they are doing a good job even if results are not what they want.
Opposition coaches are happy for lumbering defenders to pass the ball around to each other, safe in the knowledge that a killer pass will never arrive.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Nov 1, 2020 20:03:00 GMT
There’s loads of way to win a football match. We’re wank with the ball so may as well win without it!😉
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Post by boskampsflaps on Nov 1, 2020 20:06:07 GMT
Not a big surprise, with being more on the negitive side we've had to play on the counter while sitting back.
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Post by scfc75 on Nov 1, 2020 20:08:45 GMT
Possession stats on their own are pointless. Possession in dangerous areas and chances created are a better indicator of whether a team are making the best use of the ball. 30% possession and 5 shots on goal beats 70% possession and 0 shots every time.
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Post by spitthedog on Nov 2, 2020 0:39:39 GMT
We do have history in this respect, Luke. I seem to remember TP's Stoke sides usually had less possession than their opponents. Hughes' sides had more possession - which was fine for three years then it all started to go tits up and we ended up relegated. What I find weird when sides have less possession, is how often they score immediately after being under pressure from the opposition. McClean's goal yesterday was a case in point, Rotherham looked like they might nick a goal yesterday, Gunn kicks the ball upfield and a few seconds later we scored. Do you think the possession factor also depend on the quality of the opposition? It's ok to allow a crap team possession as they cant do owt` with it and more easily lose their shape when they do get the ball? |
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Post by tachyon on Nov 2, 2020 8:45:25 GMT
Generally available possession stats are
1) Stylistic (Wolves/Leicester 2015/16 vs Man City)
2) Score line dependent. (Some teams cede time of possession & drop deep if ahead, so being ahead causes low traditional possession figures, rather than low possession causing getting ahead).
Hence they are widely ignored inside the game. You have to unpick & quantify the direction of the causation.
So instead teams examine possession chains.
Where they start, (high press, low block) where they end, who contributes (usually the DMF who barely makes a forward pass, but strangely remains an integral part of the manager's plans) and how they end (sot's, incomplete passes, being tackled, clearances, offsides, getting fouled).
Teams broadly share the *number* of possessions in a game, it's just that some last longer than others.
Under MON, Stoke have a relatively high passive to interactive ratio for ending opposition possession chains compared to the rest of the Championship. (More possessions end via misplaced passes by the opposition than by direct intervention through tackles/interceptions etc by Stoke compared to league averages).
It's been the more pronounced in the other direction when we've had possession. Proportionally our possessions have failed more via opposition tackles etc and fewer have ended from misplaced passes.
Of course you need a framework to value possession in different areas of the pitch.
We could call it expected goals :-)
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Post by thisisouryear on Nov 2, 2020 9:22:10 GMT
MON doesn't have a team full of his players yet, he's added a spine but there is still work to be done. He's getting results and performances will hopefully come later but so far it's a solid start to the season. He's even got our younger players pushing for places and they are being given a chance which is good to see. Overall looking at the bigger picture MON is doing a great job, we can only get better.
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Post by tpholloway1 on Nov 2, 2020 9:57:43 GMT
Our passing has been poor for a while. I could understand, to some extent, if we moved the ball quickly but we don't. I can except when a pass is intercepted but all to frequently we "pass" to the opposition.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Nov 2, 2020 10:04:36 GMT
Our inability to keep the ball yesterday was pathetic. The passing was awful from everyone. Not just yesterday. I think that almost every team has looked tidier and more assured on the ball than we have, this season. And I think it's contributed to the fact that we haven't really played well yet. It's odd. At times we're terrible in possession, and some of the decision making with the ball has been poor all season. But - possession is just a stat. The days are gone, where 60% possession made you favourites to win. Generally I don't think they are. But this is a shit league and we have much better attacking players than a lot of the league so it doesn't matter. It's why I wish MON would stop shitting his pants tbh because we've potentially got a fantastic attacking side. |
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Post by hughjarse on Nov 2, 2020 10:10:22 GMT
Surely possession is only relevant if it leads to a shot on goal
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Post by tachyon on Nov 2, 2020 10:52:54 GMT
Surely possession is only relevant if it leads to a shot on goal That's pretty much what teams should be doing. Under MON we've had 2% more possession chains than we've allowed. They've started, on average 2.5 yards nearer to the opposition goal and ended 1.5 yards nearer to the opposition goal, compared to those we've allowed. It's a good starting point. |
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Post by nottsover60 on Nov 2, 2020 11:17:37 GMT
Saturday's conditions weren't conducive to possession or passing football. Our goal proved that getting the ball in the opposition half quickly was more effective. I always think that possession in your own half just let's the opposition get organised with plenty of men behind the ball. The thing that never seems to be mentioned but I think is vital is how quick your passes are. If one player stands on the ball looking for a pass then just passes it backwards it still counts as possession.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Nov 2, 2020 11:23:48 GMT
The biggest problem is not passing, most professional teams can pass a ball. It’s the rigidity of the system and total lack of movement when someone has possession that’s the frustrating thing. I can’t understand it when we allow balls to go for throw ins as though we are gaining some sort of advantage, we’re awful at them.
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Post by Linx on Nov 2, 2020 11:29:30 GMT
We do have history in this respect, Luke. I seem to remember TP's Stoke sides usually had less possession than their opponents. Hughes' sides had more possession - which was fine for three years then it all started to go tits up and we ended up relegated. What I find weird when sides have less possession, is how often they score immediately after being under pressure from the opposition. McClean's goal yesterday was a case in point, Rotherham looked like they might nick a goal yesterday, Gunn kicks the ball upfield and a few seconds later we scored. I’m not so sure it was the possession-based game that saw us relegated, LP. More the fact that we didn’t have Arnautovic, Whelan, Walters and Bardsley. And then a bloody awful managerial appointment at the crucial point in the season. |
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Nov 2, 2020 12:29:54 GMT
We do have history in this respect, Luke. I seem to remember TP's Stoke sides usually had less possession than their opponents. Hughes' sides had more possession - which was fine for three years then it all started to go tits up and we ended up relegated. What I find weird when sides have less possession, is how often they score immediately after being under pressure from the opposition. McClean's goal yesterday was a case in point, Rotherham looked like they might nick a goal yesterday, Gunn kicks the ball upfield and a few seconds later we scored. I’m not so sure it was the possession-based game that saw us relegated, LP. More the fact that we didn’t have Arnautovic, Whelan, Walters and Bardsley. And then a bloody awful managerial appointment at the crucial point in the season. Yes, I wasn't really suggesting that it was a possession based game which got us relegated, Linx. As you say it was the departure of some great players (Arnie and NZonzi were the best and we never replaced Whelan, Walters or Bardsley) combined with some breathtakingly poor buys for big fees and on long and highly paid contracts which did for us in the end. If you compared the quality (as opposed to the cost) of the side we had when Arnie and NZonzi etc. were here (i.e. the side which beat Liverpool 6-1) with the quality (as compared to the cost) of the side we had by the time we were relegated, it was like comparing chalk and cheese.  |
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Post by spitthedog on Nov 2, 2020 12:51:37 GMT
The biggest problem is not passing, most professional teams can pass a ball. It’s the rigidity of the system and total lack of movement when someone has possession that’s the frustrating thing. I can’t understand it when we allow balls to go for throw ins as though we are gaining some sort of advantage, we’re awful at them. Don't start me on our throw-ins!!!!!!!!! They always go backwards when we are in the opposing half. A forward works hard to get an advantage i.e a throw-in in opposition third. What happens, we throw it back to our centre half who either knocks it back to the keeper to launch or the centre back launches for what is effectively a 20/80 ball??....Most of the time that ball doesn't even get as far as where the throw in was taken from. That is when we don't just throw it to an opposition player. Bloody awful. Why? |
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Nov 2, 2020 13:08:44 GMT
The biggest problem is not passing, most professional teams can pass a ball. It’s the rigidity of the system and total lack of movement when someone has possession that’s the frustrating thing. I can’t understand it when we allow balls to go for throw ins as though we are gaining some sort of advantage, we’re awful at them. Don't start me on our throw-ins!!!!!!!!! They always go backwards when we are in the opposing half. A forward works hard to get an advantage i.e a throw-in in opposition third. What happens, we throw it back to our centre half who either knocks it back to the keeper to launch or the centre back launches for what is effectively a 20/80 ball??....Most of the time that ball doesn't even get as far as where the throw in was taken from. That is when we don't just throw it to an opposition player. Bloody awful. Why? Our players don’t move, I’m not going to blame the throw in taker, although at least throwing it down the line has a high possibility of gaining an advantage of some kind. |
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Post by JesusisaStokie on Nov 2, 2020 13:14:53 GMT
Surely possession is only relevant if it leads to a shot on goal That's pretty much what teams should be doing. Under MON we've had 2% more possession chains than we've allowed. They've started, on average 2.5 yards nearer to the opposition goal and ended 1.5 yards nearer to the opposition goal, compared to those we've allowed. It's a good starting point. If you don't mind me asking, where do you get your data? |
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Post by spitthedog on Nov 2, 2020 13:26:00 GMT
Don't start me on our throw-ins!!!!!!!!! They always go backwards when we are in the opposing half. A forward works hard to get an advantage i.e a throw-in in opposition third. What happens, we throw it back to our centre half who either knocks it back to the keeper to launch or the centre back launches for what is effectively a 20/80 ball??....Most of the time that ball doesn't even get as far as where the throw in was taken from. That is when we don't just throw it to an opposition player. Bloody awful. Why? Our players don’t move, I’m not going to blame the throw in taker, although at least throwing it down the line has a high possibility of gaining an advantage of some kind. Yes I have noticed.....what is that all about? McClean seems to be the only one who moves, but since his first touch is not totally reliable we often lose possession, hence the negative approach I guess but why? Our throw ins are so easy to defend against. It annoys me so much because we actually put the work into getting the throw in in the first place! |
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Post by Linx on Nov 2, 2020 13:29:03 GMT
I’m not so sure it was the possession-based game that saw us relegated, LP. More the fact that we didn’t have Arnautovic, Whelan, Walters and Bardsley. And then a bloody awful managerial appointment at the crucial point in the season. Yes, I wasn't really suggesting that it was a possession based game which got us relegated, Linx. As you say it was the departure of some great players (Arnie and NZonzi were the best and we never replaced Whelan, Walters or Bardsley) combined with some breathtakingly poor buys for big fees and on long and highly paid contracts which did for us in the end. If you compared the quality (as opposed to the cost) of the side we had when Arnie and NZonzi etc. were here (i.e. the side which beat Liverpool 6-1) with the quality (as compared to the cost) of the side we had by the time we were relegated, it was like comparing chalk and cheese. I realise that LP. But we like to catch each other out without enough caffeine in the system😎. Keeps us on our toes! |
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Nov 2, 2020 13:36:09 GMT
Yes, I wasn't really suggesting that it was a possession based game which got us relegated, Linx. As you say it was the departure of some great players (Arnie and NZonzi were the best and we never replaced Whelan, Walters or Bardsley) combined with some breathtakingly poor buys for big fees and on long and highly paid contracts which did for us in the end. If you compared the quality (as opposed to the cost) of the side we had when Arnie and NZonzi etc. were here (i.e. the side which beat Liverpool 6-1) with the quality (as compared to the cost) of the side we had by the time we were relegated, it was like comparing chalk and cheese. I realise that LP. But we like to catch each other out without enough caffeine in the system😎. Keeps us on our toes! Don't talk to me about caffeine Linx! I've just treated myself to a bean to cup espresso/cappucino machine and my brain is hurting from the effort of understanding all the controls. Pity I don't have degree in being a barrista - it would finally have come in useful!  |
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