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Post by drfootball on Jan 26, 2020 11:55:25 GMT
It’s certainly possible but the odds are long for a reason. We have 17 games to play. The best 17 consecutive game points haul in the league this season is West Brom at 40 points between GW6 and GW22. Last season, in their final 17 games, Norwich got a haul of 40 points. .....and they had goal machine Pukki on the rampage I can't see Vokes pulling anything like that off. But Campbell might 😊
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Post by tachyon on Jan 26, 2020 12:13:55 GMT
It's based on how we've performed on xG over the last 46 games, weighted for more recent results. So it's weighted to capture the improved underlying stats. The remaining fixtures for all teams are simulated and the points won are added on to the points/GD already in the bank. Repeated 10,000 time. So we are very much more likely to avoid relegation comfortably, over going down then? We go down about 5% of the time, fewer if Derby get docked points. They're around a 27% chance to get relegated if they get docked 12 points. Attachment DeletedMON's added ~ one xG every four games to the attacking side of the game and knocked one xG every four games off the xG we're allowing. Pretty impressive, he's also got a side that isn't making costly mistakes.
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Post by samba :) on Jan 26, 2020 12:14:33 GMT
What were your odds, i put £5 on in September and get £176 back, just wondering how much they will have dropped. its 66/1 now returns 335. I know its unlikely but I couldn't resist
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Post by Billy the kid on Jan 26, 2020 12:17:24 GMT
So we are very much more likely to avoid relegation comfortably, over going down then? We go down about 5% of the time, fewer if Derby get docked points. They're around a 27% chance to get relegated if they get docked 12 points. View AttachmentMON's added ~ one xG every four games to the attacking side of the game and knocked one xG every four games off the xG we're allowing. Pretty impressive, he's also got a side that isn't making costly mistakes. So do we land ourselves in the playoffs ever on these simulations?
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Post by shakermaker on Jan 26, 2020 12:27:43 GMT
What were your odds, i put £5 on in September and get £176 back, just wondering how much they will have dropped. its 66/1 now returns 335. I know its unlikely but I couldn't resist Will the bookies take bets for promotion next season? I'm thinking there'll still be long odds considering our current position.
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Post by sheds1862 on Jan 26, 2020 12:29:49 GMT
Amazing
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Post by GeneralFaye on Jan 26, 2020 12:30:25 GMT
We won't get in the play offs but MON is making Jones look like a complete charlatan more and more with each passing game. What a shambolic appointment that was in hindsight.
Anyway, we'll be challenging next season.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 26, 2020 12:42:25 GMT
We go down about 5% of the time, fewer if Derby get docked points. They're around a 27% chance to get relegated if they get docked 12 points. View AttachmentMON's added ~ one xG every four games to the attacking side of the game and knocked one xG every four games off the xG we're allowing. Pretty impressive, he's also got a side that isn't making costly mistakes. So do we land ourselves in the playoffs ever on these simulations? Around 5 in every 1,000
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Post by samba :) on Jan 26, 2020 14:00:37 GMT
its 66/1 now returns 335. I know its unlikely but I couldn't resist Will the bookies take bets for promotion next season? I'm thinking there'll still be long odds considering our current position. I don't think so. It won't happen anyway we won't be in the championship next season
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Post by stuammo on Jan 26, 2020 14:08:37 GMT
100/1 to finish in the top 6 now with bet365
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Post by Veritas on Jan 26, 2020 17:02:18 GMT
We won't get in the play offs but MON is making Jones look like a complete charlatan more and more with each passing game. What a shambolic appointment that was in hindsight. Anyway, we'll be challenging next season. I agree we will be challenging next season and MON is doing a great job, however, while Jones tenure in the job certainly ended up as a complete shambles at the time the appointment looked a good one, a young manager with a very good record for playing attacking successful football.
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Post by wakeypotter on Jan 26, 2020 17:15:29 GMT
Too late for a push for play offs I’m sure but it would be just the best if we did. I’m just happy that we are now looking to see who the likes of Birmingham and Middlesbrough are playing each week rather than Luton and Barnsley. MoN is guna be a leg end. 👍
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Post by Miles Offside on Jan 26, 2020 17:29:35 GMT
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Post by Linx on Jan 26, 2020 19:55:07 GMT
We won't get in the play offs but MON is making Jones look like a complete charlatan more and more with each passing game. What a shambolic appointment that was in hindsight. Anyway, we'll be challenging next season. I wouldn’t call NJ a charlatan. He was out of his depth at a bigger club with recent PL history, and he bought too many players - like a kid in a toy shop let loose with his dad’s credit card. He didn’t know how to use them all or please them all, and he just wasn’t pragmatic enough. He needs to start again, perhaps in League 1 or 2, once he has sorted his head out. As he proved at Luton, there’s a good manager in there somewhere.
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Post by wrighter on Jan 26, 2020 20:51:07 GMT
Srewth A few weeks back we had " We"ve had it " League 1 for sure" "We are certs for relegation" etc etc etc
Thankfully. i kept the faith.
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Post by elystokie on Jan 26, 2020 22:33:12 GMT
So do we land ourselves in the playoffs ever on these simulations? Around 5 in every 1,000 So to get a value bet on us you'd need better than 200/1? Presumably the figure was even less than 5 a few weeks ago?
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Post by thehoof on Jan 26, 2020 22:39:14 GMT
I said that when MO’N came, that he would be Manager of the Year if he kept us up with what he had inherited. I stand by that- and think / hope both will be achieved. Play Off’s- not this year.
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Post by lawrieleslie on Jan 27, 2020 7:06:36 GMT
Didn’t Fulham pull off a meteoric climb up the table few years ago after a similar start to us. They reached play offs and think were promoted. Could be wrong.
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Post by lagwafis on Jan 27, 2020 8:01:02 GMT
Didn’t Fulham pull off a meteoric climb up the table few years ago after a similar start to us. They reached play offs and think were promoted. Could be wrong. They did although they already had 48 points to their name at the same point we’re at now. If we get inside the top half this season that would be a massive achievement given the start we’ve had.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2020 8:05:39 GMT
Didn’t Fulham pull off a meteoric climb up the table few years ago after a similar start to us. They reached play offs and think were promoted. Could be wrong. They did although they already had 48 points to their name at the same point we’re at now. If we get inside the top half this season that would be a massive achievement given the start we’ve had. See page 2
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Jan 27, 2020 10:40:18 GMT
I think we can make mid table, but that playoffs is almost mathematically impossible. You'd need both the bottom half of the table to lose lots of matches so we can overtake them, plus the top half of the table to lose lots of matches so we can catch them up. Trouble is, they can't both lose lots of matches, because who would they be losing to!?!
You'd need maybe the top 4 / 5 / 6 teams to win every match remaining against all teams other than ourselves, while we don't lose another match between now and the end of the season. Theoretically possible, but in reality not gonna happen, particularly given Leeds and West Brom's continued implosions.
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Post by Miracle Aligner on Jan 27, 2020 11:07:51 GMT
Pfffft. If you seriously think we have any chance of making the playoffs this season then you would be absolutely right! The only way is up
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 27, 2020 11:13:59 GMT
19 points from safety.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jan 27, 2020 11:27:43 GMT
If results tomorrow night go against us and we lose on Friday talk will again be of relegation.
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Post by chigstoke on Jan 27, 2020 11:34:41 GMT
One thing you can say is that this sort of positivity would never have been forseen after game day 15. Incredible turnaround in support really, love it.
We're slowly but surely, on the up. MON could cement legend status here potentially, I've just got that sort of feeling about him. I think it was onlooker who said that pound for pound he could become one of our best modern day managers.
Not sure why, but I just think he can. Keeping us up alone would put him down as a miracle worker.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 27, 2020 11:35:53 GMT
If results tomorrow night go against us and we lose on Friday talk will again be of relegation. Getting to 50 points should be the only talk. Anything else is daft.
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Post by okeydokeystokie2 on Jan 27, 2020 11:44:32 GMT
A great second half of the season would be fantastic. I never felt this team would be relegated. Too many decent players at this level.
Still a lot of work to be done on and off the pitch. Finish strong and sort out the squad in the summer.
Next season is massive. Last year of parachute payments so the pressure will be on.
Things certainly looking up though. MoN has kept it simple. Got them fit, organised and playing to a clear system. Confidence and belief are coming back and there is more to come. With our players in this league, that will take us a long way. I've always said that Stoke should fear no one in this league, home or away.
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Post by sensiblestokie on Jan 27, 2020 11:49:10 GMT
Can you imagine!
MON would go down as the greatest manager ever, and rightly so! 😂
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Post by skip on Jan 27, 2020 12:01:47 GMT
"Can we make the play offs?" is the new "we're tenth FFS" and I for one like it!
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Post by bloodtypered on Jan 27, 2020 12:09:41 GMT
Man city could win the prem....not going to
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