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Post by samba :) on Jan 25, 2020 22:23:47 GMT
Just put a fiver on
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Post by riproaringagain on Jan 25, 2020 23:29:16 GMT
Fulham had 42 points from 28 games the season they went up in the playoffs, they came with a wet sail But they finished third on 88 points, the last play off spot was Derby on 75 . 13 points difference I’m not disgreeing at all it’s possible this league is average at best, if we get more momentum and more importantly belief
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Post by y_oh_y_delilah on Jan 26, 2020 0:15:04 GMT
Behave, not a chance in hell. Not being pessimistic folks, just realistic. Almost as big a long shot that Leicester winning the Premier league to make the top 6 from the position we were in when MoN took over. The biggest concern should the impossible happen would be that we’ve nothing like the quality of player required to make even the slightest fist of surviving. We can dream but that’s just what it is at the moment, a pipe dream. Give this excellent, if a little monochrome manager, one or even two seasons and see where we are then.
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Post by peekay67 on Jan 26, 2020 2:26:07 GMT
Let's stay up, improve the squad, fuck Scholes off and go for it next season. To much of an ask this season.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Jan 26, 2020 3:07:53 GMT
No, but we can certainly aim to beat our finish of 16th from last season. Yes, this would be a good target for this season. Play offs next season.
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Post by oatiemoston on Jan 26, 2020 3:32:12 GMT
It's an achievable pipe dream due to proper managment.
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Post by PotterLog on Jan 26, 2020 4:12:03 GMT
Jesus if I was an opposition fan I’d be howling reading this.
We might well still go down. As in, there is a very concrete possibility that we will be playing in League One next season. If MON has his head screwed on, which thankfully I believe he does, he’ll be hyper-aware of this, focussing on the demands of keeping us out of trouble and most certainly not getting all overexcited with fantasies of promotion.
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Post by adamsson on Jan 26, 2020 6:53:26 GMT
No, but we can certainly aim to beat our finish of 16th from last season. Yes, this would be a good target for this season. Play offs next season. Win the league next season you mean
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Post by superalexneil on Jan 26, 2020 7:40:45 GMT
51 points to play for. To late for playoffs would be great to see us pick up 32ish points from that though
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Post by tachyon on Jan 26, 2020 8:26:20 GMT
Median number of final points total based on xG matchups for the remaining matches and points won already is 58 points which leaves us in 18th place in May. (17th if Derby get docked points).
We go down in around 5 in every 100 simulations. The best final position we get to is 7th in around 1 in every 100 trials.
Maximum number of final points we get is ~74 and the minimum is 42.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2020 8:44:01 GMT
We could but only if all the other teams between us and 6th agree not to gain another point for the remainder of the season…
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Post by xchpotter on Jan 26, 2020 8:48:38 GMT
Never stifle your dreams... but somethings are best kept to yourself to avoid looking deluded and this dream is one of them.
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hotpot
Youth Player
Posts: 432
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Post by hotpot on Jan 26, 2020 8:57:04 GMT
We have hidden strength in depth. Ngoy, Shawcross, Verlinden, the new guy Thompson, and even our Mame , and maybe Souttar , are yet to appear. Plus we beat Swansea minus Tyrell ... and it should have been by more. It ain't over yet, fellas. We now have a more confident team that wants to win.
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Post by Staffsoatcake on Jan 26, 2020 9:45:48 GMT
After the clusterfuck under Jones,let's be thankful we now have a very good chance of still been in the Championship next season.
Then we can dream of making the playoffs at least.
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Post by chumley on Jan 26, 2020 10:01:59 GMT
I put a fiver on us reaching the play offs in September so we got no chance, sorry, but i don't win bets...
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Post by chumley on Jan 26, 2020 10:03:07 GMT
What were your odds, i put £5 on in September and get £176 back, just wondering how much they will have dropped.
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Post by skemstokie on Jan 26, 2020 10:22:50 GMT
What were your odds, i put £5 on in September and get £176 back, just wondering how much they will have dropped. Now second in current form table.
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Post by LH_SCFC on Jan 26, 2020 10:26:29 GMT
It’s certainly possible but the odds are long for a reason.
We have 17 games to play. The best 17 consecutive game points haul in the league this season is West Brom at 40 points between GW6 and GW22.
Last season, in their final 17 games, Norwich got a haul of 40 points.
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Post by lordb on Jan 26, 2020 10:31:34 GMT
Top ten with a positive goal difference would be top end of what's acheivable for me. And that would be sensational.
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Post by mattface on Jan 26, 2020 10:36:01 GMT
Jesus if I was an opposition fan I’d be howling reading this. We might well still go down. As in, there is a very concrete possibility that we will be playing in League One next season. If MON has his head screwed on, which thankfully I believe he does, he’ll be hyper-aware of this, focussing on the demands of keeping us out of trouble and most certainly not getting all overexcited with fantasies of promotion. Maybe, but push for promotion or stay up require the same thing - winning games. Granted one needs many more of them, but the mentality should be the same. The performance yesterday showed many signs of a team being able to just do that
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Post by scfc75 on Jan 26, 2020 10:40:05 GMT
Top ten with a positive goal difference would be top end of what's acheivable for me. And that would be sensational. 65pts (ish) to get top ten, we would need 10 wins and 4 draws from our remaining 17 games. Think you’re right, this would be the top of what we could achieve... I think we will land around 13th / 14th personally. Which would still be fantastic.
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Post by berahinosgoals on Jan 26, 2020 10:40:23 GMT
That would be the equivalent of turning a ship with some oars but nothing surprises me scfc anymore
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Post by Roger Everyone on Jan 26, 2020 10:57:57 GMT
A strong finish to the season would be nice. Also it might help attract younger up and coming players for the positions we need. Don't really want to see any over 30's players joining. We need to be building for the long term. Not sure you can be promoted to early ever. Once you are it's all about the manager knowing what the team needs. See Sheffield utd for instance.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 26, 2020 11:42:12 GMT
Current most likely survival total is 46 points, although there are rare occasions when a side goes down with 53 or stays up with 36.
Most likely target for a top six spot is currently 73 points, and the range falls between 81 & 69
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Post by Billy the kid on Jan 26, 2020 11:43:24 GMT
Current most likely survival total is 46 points, although there are rare occasions when a side goes down with 53 or stays up with 36. Most likely target for a top six spot is currently 73 points, and the range falls between 83 & 69What is our current projected points total this season?
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Post by tachyon on Jan 26, 2020 11:45:18 GMT
What is our current projected points total this season? 58 points with a range of 42 to 74
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Post by Billy the kid on Jan 26, 2020 11:47:06 GMT
What is our current projected points total this season? 58 points with a range of 42 to 74 Is that based on current form or whole season?
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Post by spitthedog on Jan 26, 2020 11:50:06 GMT
It’s certainly possible but the odds are long for a reason. We have 17 games to play. The best 17 consecutive game points haul in the league this season is West Brom at 40 points between GW6 and GW22. Last season, in their final 17 games, Norwich got a haul of 40 points. .....and they had goal machine Pukki on the rampage I can't see Vokes pulling anything like that off.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 26, 2020 11:52:19 GMT
58 points with a range of 42 to 74 Is that based on current form or whole season? It's based on how we've performed on xG over the last 46 games, weighted for more recent results. So it's weighted to capture the improved underlying stats. The remaining fixtures for all teams are simulated and the points won are added on to the points/GD already in the bank. Repeated 10,000 time.
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Post by Billy the kid on Jan 26, 2020 11:55:14 GMT
Is that based on current form or whole season? It's based on how we've performed on xG over the last 46 games, weighted for more recent results. So it's weighted to capture the improved underlying stats. The remaining fixtures for all teams are simulated and the points won are added on to the points/GD already in the bank. Repeated 10,000 time. So we are very much more likely to avoid relegation comfortably, over going down then?
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