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Post by markby on Jan 28, 2020 18:15:59 GMT
Stoke, post NJ are averaging 1.54 xG per game and allowing 0.99 xG per game. That's consistent with 24 points over the period, we've won 23. (Nice solid underpinned performance) Under NJ this season it was 1.3 for and 1.24 against. Consistent with 20 points. We won 8........Unlucky as.... Am I right in saying that all other things being equal, Stoke might have expected a regression to the mean (improvement) had NJ stayed?
But that all other things might not have been equal, since the players' performance (i.e. not results) under him were dependant on their maintaining their existing effort, commitment and confidence through the whole season.
Whereas if NJ really had "lost the dressing room", then players giving up on him and his methods completely might have seen a new, lower mean?
If so, perhaps the improvement under MO'N is not solely down to new tactics, formations and selections etc, but also down to the fact that they believe in him, and so are redoubling their efforts, and finally getting their just rewards?
I don't suppose the analysts have developed a metric for xConfidence.
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Post by markby on Jan 28, 2020 18:17:43 GMT
There's also been a change in ball progression. (getting the ball into dangerous areas). Our ball progression as measured by the xG improvement through successful passes and carries has improved by 4% under MON compared to NJ Opposition ball progression has decreased by 4% under MON compared to NJ. Is 4% + or - a very significant/impactful figure?
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Post by mrcoke on Jan 28, 2020 18:23:13 GMT
Great points. Data analysis is a constant challenge between descriptive stats (what happened) and predictive stats (what's going to happen). We weight more recent data points, so if there's an improvement (for whatever reason) it does gradually filter through into the master team ratings we use to project future performance. I have to admit narrative driven explainations don't appeal to me, I really would like to see a tangible uptick in the underlying numbers. Which is what we have seen with MON (so that's very encouraging). 73% of Premier League teams who showed the most momentum between the first 3rd of a season and the second third (without showing an improvement in their underlying figures) promptly lost that momentum in the final 3rd, suggesting "improvement" can just be statistical noise. Stoke, post NJ are averaging 1.54 xG per game and allowing 0.99 xG per game. That's consistent with 24 points over the period, we've won 23. (Nice solid underpinned performance) Under NJ this season it was 1.3 for and 1.24 against. Consistent with 20 points. We won 8........Unlucky as.... Thanks for the reply. Absolutely fascinating. Two more quick points. I love the narrative analysis! Having spent a large chunk of my working life with writing as part of my job, I love the written and spoken word when it cones to match analysis. Although I'm fascinated by how accurate data analysis can be, I'm also a little underwhelmed by it. It kind of sucks the soul out of "the beautiful game". Paddy Cerrand's description of George Best giving defenders "twisted blood" conjures up an accurate, realistic image of that change of pace and direction as Best jinked past his markers. Averaging 1.54 xG per game doesn't really make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up. Likewise, Cliff Morgan's beautiful, lyrical commentary on Gareth Edwards early try for the Barbarians against The All Blacks in 1973 (?) is like commentary, reportage, poetry and instant folklore rolled into one. "Brilliant, that's brilliant!" It's become the sound track to an immortal passage of Rugby, just like "They think it's all over - it is now!" I know that, unlike the data, it actually tells us nothing, but somehow it tells us everything, and it stays with us forever. Maybe it's the difference between science and entertainment. In some cases almost art. I'll be fascinated to see how we go against our predictive data. I still think we'll out perform. Not based on data, but based on a feeling, a hunch, seeing the confidence, belief and team spirit flood back into this group of players. Btw, just in case you've never heard it, here's Cliff.Thanks for that link. I remember watching the match on TV, it still gives goosebumps.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 19:09:53 GMT
my era, mate :-). TMO'd given a forward pass, nowadays. It's never an either/or, always a combined approach. The scale of the available data means you have to have some kind of number crunching to digest it all. My passing database just for the Premier League 2019/20 has over a quarter of a million data points, each with a raft of qualifiers. To discern any useful insights, devoid of cognitive biases just wouldn't be possible with video alone.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 19:23:59 GMT
I don't suppose the analysts have developed a metric for xConfidence. [/div] [/quote] Not quite :-) I've heard all the "lost the dressing room" stuff, but Stoke we're still creating/allowing chances that were consistent with a lower to midtable team, even if all that were true. I haven't seen many keepers who've had such a dismal post shot save underperformance as JB was having. But I've never seen one who continued or was allowed to continue playing that poorly either. Having looked at the under performance in attack, that was more about opposing keepers playing well against our post shot xG than it was about JA hitting the post from 12 inches. So I'd expect that to have also regressed to a more acceptable level of returns (unless every Championship keeper had a particular superhero vendetta against us). We projected final points in the high 40's towards he end of NJ, so survival was touch and go. MON's improved the performance, we're now forecasting mid to high 50's.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 19:30:59 GMT
Is 4% + or - a very significant/impactful figure?
[/quote] [/i] We're looking at ~900 events per game. So we get good sample size fairly quickly. It's a fairly big deal, yes.
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Post by okeydokeystokie2 on Jan 28, 2020 19:44:09 GMT
I don't suppose the analysts have developed a metric for xConfidence. [/div] [/quote] Not quite :-) I've heard all the "lost the dressing room" stuff, but Stoke we're still creating/allowing chances that were consistent with a lower to midtable team, even if all that were true. I haven't seen many keepers who've had such a dismal post shot save underperformance as JB was having. But I've never seen one who continued or was allowed to continue playing that poorly either. Having looked at the under performance in attack, that was more about opposing keepers playing well against our post shot xG than it was about JA hitting the post from 12 inches. So I'd expect that to have also regressed to a more acceptable level of returns (unless every Championship keeper had a particular superhero vendetta against us). We projected final points in the high 40's towards he end of NJ, so survival was touch and go. MON's improved the performance, we're now forecasting mid to high 50's. [/quote] I actually think that's about right. I've even had a look at the fixtures and I got us to about 57 points. Anything over that will be impressive.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 19:44:57 GMT
Update: -
NJ Played 14 Won 2 Drew 2 Lost 10 Points 8 PPG 0.57 GS 13 (0.93 PG) GA 25 (1.78 PG)
MON Played 16 Won 8 Drew 2 Lost 6 Points 26 PPG 1.63 GS 26 (1.63 PG) GA 20 (1.25 PG)
This kind of form would see us on 75 points in a full season, which would have got us into the play offs last season.
Quite remarkable when you think about it. We were rock bottom when he joined. Just 8 points from 14 games. I honestly thought we were dead and buried.
Hes somehow got that group of players looking like a promotion team.
Just imagine what he could do next season, with a full pre season and a chance to add a few more of his own players?
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Post by nonameface on Feb 8, 2020 19:58:46 GMT
Update: - NJ Played 14 Won 2 Drew 2 Lost 10 Points 8 PPG 0.57 GS 13 (0.93 PG) GA 25 (1.78 PG) MON Played 16 Won 8 Drew 2 Lost 6 Points 26 PPG 1.63 GS 26 (1.63 PG) GA 20 (1.25 PG) This kind of form would see us on 75 points in a full season, which would have got us into the play offs last season. Quite remarkable when you think about it. We were rock bottom when he joined. Just 8 points from 14 games. I honestly thought we were dead and buried. Hes somehow got that group of players looking like a promotion team. Just imagine what he could do next season, with a full pre season and a chance to add a few more of his own players? Don't really even need to add any players either.. he's got them ticking by playing them in their right positions and playing a simple game. I'd be disappointed to lose McLean, Clucas, Allen and Campbell now. Definitely couldn't say that about Allen pre MON.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Feb 8, 2020 20:05:15 GMT
I was happy enough with MON but would have preferred Moyes, thank fuck for that, bullet dodged!!
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Post by bojanwonder on Feb 8, 2020 20:32:58 GMT
Update: - NJ Played 14 Won 2 Drew 2 Lost 10 Points 8 PPG 0.57 GS 13 (0.93 PG) GA 25 (1.78 PG) MON Played 16 Won 8 Drew 2 Lost 6 Points 26 PPG 1.63 GS 26 (1.63 PG) GA 20 (1.25 PG) This kind of form would see us on 75 points in a full season, which would have got us into the play offs last season. Quite remarkable when you think about it. We were rock bottom when he joined. Just 8 points from 14 games. I honestly thought we were dead and buried. Hes somehow got that group of players looking like a promotion team. Just imagine what he could do next season, with a full pre season and a chance to add a few more of his own players? Think I heard a pundit say previously that only one team at rock bottom by Christmas has avoided relegation in the past ten years too. Obviously we're not home and dry yet but it certainly will be the great escape if we do stay up!
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Post by tachyon on Feb 9, 2020 10:30:42 GMT
Attachment DeletedMON's moved the xG dial. You want the blue trendline to be above the orange one with these plots & the bigger the separation the better. The rolling 10 game xG plots have been all MON's work for the latest six datapoints. xG created has flatlined at around 1.5 expected goals per game & the xG allowed has dipped below 1 expected goals allowed per game & continues to trend downwards. We've created chances at the same rate & denied chances at the same rate under NJ & GR, just never in the same timeframe before. Grand job!
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Feb 9, 2020 10:47:08 GMT
Normally when a team down the bottom goes on a decent streak, as we have done, they rocket up the table because they are gaining points while other teams around them are not.
But we're still much lower down than you'd think for our form, purely because of the gap we had to overcome to catch up to those teams in the teens places. If we keep up this form it'll be very satisfying to see us climb clear at last, from now on.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Feb 9, 2020 10:52:09 GMT
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Post by gingerninja on Feb 9, 2020 11:12:34 GMT
With us playing Preston next up, does anybody know if Alex Neil was ever on our list. I know talk was rife at the time.
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Post by FullerMagic on Feb 9, 2020 11:14:29 GMT
Table from Dec 9th, starting with the Luton home game, looks even better..
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Post by march4 on Feb 9, 2020 11:14:37 GMT
O’Neill is doing a superb job.
It is Durbanesque and that ended with promotion following his first full season in charge.
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Post by march4 on Feb 9, 2020 11:15:58 GMT
Table from Dec 9th, starting with the Luton home game, looks even better.. Look at Leeds and the Baggies! And we are on auto promotion form.
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Post by FullerMagic on Feb 9, 2020 12:55:48 GMT
Table from Dec 9th, starting with the Luton home game, looks even better.. Look at Leeds and the Baggies! And we are on auto promotion form. Shows how tricky Preston will be - but also how winnable QPR is next weekend too..
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Post by gingerninja on Feb 9, 2020 13:00:00 GMT
It will be, but as some have said, it will show how far we have come. Watched the Wigan game and they weren't anything special. Would certainly take a point though.
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Post by stokecitytalke on Feb 9, 2020 13:12:01 GMT
Has anybody got the table from Christmas day when we were bottom, I can't seem to find it.
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Post by FullerMagic on Feb 9, 2020 13:27:46 GMT
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Post by Miles Offside on Feb 9, 2020 13:43:28 GMT
MON has identified his best starting line-up and, other than covering for injuries and a bit of tweaking, has stuck by his players.
Now we're seeing the benefits of some good management. A complete contrast to Jones.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 5:56:27 GMT
We were actually bottom on Boxing Day with 3 minutes of our match remaining. I think that was the massive turning point. Them 2 goals took us out of the bottom 3 and someone, was it Luton conceded. QPR have 4 tough fixtures coming up and in poor form. As long as we don't lose there can see us catching them soon.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 8:02:46 GMT
Interesting.....
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Post by mrcoke on Feb 10, 2020 8:31:13 GMT
MON has done a great job, but I think he will do better when he has sorted out the players he wants.
On Saturday we controlled the match for 40 minutes and then suddenly stopped playing and it was all Charlton for the last few minutes and they scored. I was angry with what I was watching, it was as though we had suddenly down tools for half time.
That event and the debarcle against Derby shows we still have the same players essentially. I'm concerned that as soon as we have climbed to a "safe" position our players will decide "that's it" for the season. Ince perked up for Saturday's game, I suspect because he was given a rollicking by MON or his dad or both, but how long will it last?
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Post by Rick Grimes on Feb 10, 2020 8:35:16 GMT
I said to my mate after Charlton equalised that we’d go on to win it by two or three goals. I’d have never said that under Jones.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2020 8:51:34 GMT
MON has done a great job, but I think he will do better when he has sorted out the players he wants. On Saturday we controlled the match for 40 minutes and then suddenly stopped playing and it was all Charlton for the last few minutes and they scored. I was angry with what I was watching, it was as though we had suddenly down tools for half time. That event and the debarcle against Derby shows we still have the same players essentially. I'm concerned that as soon as we have climbed to a "safe" position our players will decide "that's it" for the season. Ince perked up for Saturday's game, I suspect because he was given a rollicking by MON or his dad or both, but how long will it last? Under O'Neill don't be surprised if and when we're safe he throws in Collins and Verlinden for the remainder of the games and we see some of Ngoy, Sorensen, Kyeremateng and Porter.....
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Post by pmjh on Feb 10, 2020 9:27:37 GMT
I'd like to see us maintain promotion form for the rest of the season. 23-25 points from the last 15 games would be the equivalent of a top 6 place over a whole season. This would see us stay up comfortably and give us confidence and momentum for next season.
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Post by foxysgloves on Feb 10, 2020 9:36:02 GMT
Really interesting stuff that. We really seem to have struck gold with MON don’t we??
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