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Post by onionman on Jan 27, 2020 0:42:03 GMT
Until about a month ago, my Saturday chores, in order of enjoyment (most enjoyable first) were:
1) cooking meals 2) going to the toilet 3) going to the launderette 4) grocery shopping 5) dealing with kids 6) gardening 7) watching Stoke 8) work.
Now watching Stoke is number 1. If that’s not a dramatic turnaround I don’t know what is.
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Post by sensiblestokie on Jan 27, 2020 2:23:53 GMT
Super impressed with him.
I never imagined he would have this effect on us. What a manager!
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Post by djduncanjames on Jan 27, 2020 5:43:14 GMT
Notice March as been absent a lot recently since O’Neil as turned things around 😁🤣🤣 He eventually did get behind Hughes after a while, recall the odd compliment here and there. Heck even Benji ate some Humble Pie and admitted his forecast was wrong. MoN is doing a great job, PC must be so relieved.
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Post by starkiller on Jan 27, 2020 5:56:33 GMT
How lucky we are to have him.
Especially considering he joined us when we were clueless gonners at the bottom.
He has literally saved this club from total doom, and whatever gifts Coates can bestow on him, then he will have deserved them.
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Jan 27, 2020 10:33:11 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2020 10:38:19 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. We beat Swansea and Fulham under Jones when they were riding high
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2020 10:41:39 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. Sheff Wed were 4th also, although that flattered them.....
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Post by elystokie on Jan 27, 2020 10:53:48 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. I think on our day we always 'could' beat anyone, the expected goals stats indicated that, we just didn't have that day frequently enough and that, coupled with far too many stupid errors was why we were where we were. I do wonder if MON was our first choice a couple of managers ago but wasn't ready to leave NI at the time. Regardless, we literally couldn't have made a better choice, I just can't fault the man, from his team selections and substitutions to his interviews and tactics, it's like someone has made him in a workshop somewhere! Well done to all concerned in capturing his signature, I'm sure he could've easily gone elsewhere.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2020 11:56:26 GMT
I do wonder if MON was our first choice a couple of managers ago but wasn't ready to leave NI at the time. It's an interesting theory, but it's difficult to see more than one manager back. Rowett was among the several public options when Hughes was sacked, but Derby wouldn't release him. I think Michael's name was mentioned in the press, but it was the other O'Neill who was approached. When Lambert was let go, Rowett was first and only choice (why I have no idea). Then when Rowett was sacked, within days Jones arrived out of nowhere, but that's the only time when O'Neill could have been approached.
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Post by markby on Jan 27, 2020 18:02:42 GMT
I do wonder if MON was our first choice a couple of managers ago but wasn't ready to leave NI at the time. This NI fan doesn't ever recall MON considering it, or being considered, before his actual appointment. And there were plenty of rumours about other jobs - some of them even true!
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Post by markby on Jan 27, 2020 18:05:54 GMT
I think Michael's name was mentioned in the press, but it was the other O'Neill who was approached. Trust me, you dodged a bullet if Martin O'Neill was ever in the frame. A great player, and a very good manager in his time, but that time has long gone.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2020 18:10:04 GMT
Trust me, you dodged a bullet if Martin O'Neill was ever in the frame. A great player, and a very good manager in his time, but that time has long gone. We dodged one more as we also didnt have to suffer his assistant!
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Post by markby on Jan 27, 2020 19:00:31 GMT
Trust me, you dodged a bullet if Martin O'Neill was ever in the frame. A great player, and a very good manager in his time, but that time has long gone. We dodged one more as we also didnt have to suffer his assistant! Ah now, poor Roy's just temperamental.
50% Temper and 50% Mental.
(100% C U Next Tuesday, as well)
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Post by discokaraoke on Jan 27, 2020 22:27:02 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. We beat Swansea and Fulham under Jones when they were riding high So still not all that impressed then? The stats don't lie, I suggest that you take your blindfold off and have another look!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2020 22:42:07 GMT
We beat Swansea and Fulham under Jones when they were riding high So still not all that impressed then? The stats don't lie, I suggest that you take your blindfold off and have another look! You were rewriting history to prove your point, I was just putting you straight. He's doing an excellent job,but it's not finished. Just as those who said he wasn't up to the job before a ball was kicked were OTT so are those now proclaiming him the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ. There really is no middle ground for some Stoke supporters. Talk of promotion and winning runs, it's all quite ridiculous. If we stay up he will have been a success so if that day comes that's the time to judge
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 9:26:07 GMT
MON's improved the quantity and quality of chances we create by 18% compared to NJ.
MON's reduced the quality and quantity of chances we concede by 21% compared to NJ.
That's bankable improvement on both sides of the ball in our process.
These figures have transfered into attempts on target at around the expected rate for both managers.
The big difference in shots/headers on target is that under NJ we scored 28% fewer goals and allowed 33% more than was expected based on the shot placement, power etc.
So additionally, if you think our manager has any control over how opposing keepers save our on target chances or how our keeper saves the opposition's on target chances, it's another big plus mark for MON vs NJ.
My take is that MON has improved the process and on target attempts have materialised and been saved/allowed at the expected rate.
NJ produced an inferior process and suffered dismally with negative variance when that process turned into on target attempts.
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Post by lifelong on Jan 28, 2020 9:30:59 GMT
Don't give a stuff what the stats say "i'm loving it!"
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Post by okeydokeystokie2 on Jan 28, 2020 9:33:50 GMT
MON's improved the quantity and quality of chances we create by 18% compared to NJ. MON's reduced the quality and quantity of chances we concede by 21% compared to NJ. That's bankable improvement on both sides of the ball in our process. These figures have transfered into attempts on target at around the expected rate for both managers. The big difference in shots/headers on target is that under NJ we scored 28% fewer goals and allowed 33% more than was expected based on the shot placement, power etc. So additionally, if you think our manager has any control over how opposing keepers save our on target chances or how our keeper saves the opposition's on target chances, it's another big plus mark for MON vs NJ. My take is that MON has improved the process and on target attempts have materialised and been saved/allowed at the expected rate. NJ produced an inferior process and suffered dismally with negative variance when that process turned into on target attempts. Thanks. I love your statistical analysis. I understand how the data analyses performance - it supports what we see with our own eyes. I am less confident about predicted trends based on past data. It ignores the human element of football - belief, confidence, form, momentum. In this relatively poor league, where any team can beat any other team, the mental side, the team spirit, the fight - the things that can't be shown in the data - will surely determine how successful a team like Stoke will be. My guess right now is that Stoke will out-perform their xG prediction this season, based on non statistical factors the data cannot analyse.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2020 9:45:21 GMT
MON's improved the quantity and quality of chances we create by 18% compared to NJ. MON's reduced the quality and quantity of chances we concede by 21% compared to NJ. That's bankable improvement on both sides of the ball in our process. These figures have transfered into attempts on target at around the expected rate for both managers. The big difference in shots/headers on target is that under NJ we scored 28% fewer goals and allowed 33% more than was expected based on the shot placement, power etc. So additionally, if you think our manager has any control over how opposing keepers save our on target chances or how our keeper saves the opposition's on target chances, it's another big plus mark for MON vs NJ. My take is that MON has improved the process and on target attempts have materialised and been saved/allowed at the expected rate. NJ produced an inferior process and suffered dismally with negative variance when that process turned into on target attempts. This is spot on. O'Neill seems to have the balance between attack and defence just right at the moment and long may it continue.....
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Post by zerps on Jan 28, 2020 9:48:54 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. Sheff Wed were 4th also, although that flattered them..... Lets face it, theres hardly any quality in the league. Hard work and a tight defence is all it takes.
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Post by mattface on Jan 28, 2020 10:35:08 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. In our current situation surely picking up points off our nearest rivals are more important
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Post by cerebralstokie on Jan 28, 2020 10:37:47 GMT
Interesting that prior to the West Brom game there was a post on here pointing out that MON's points thus far had been accrued against bottom 5 sides. Following the West Brom and Swansea games we have now fully put that to bed too. On our day we can now beat anyone in this division. In our current situation surely picking up points off our nearest rivals are more important Aren't we already doing that?
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 10:41:05 GMT
[/qu ote]Thanks. I love your statistical analysis.
I understand how the data analyses performance - it supports what we see with our own eyes.
I am less confident about predicted trends based on past data. It ignores the human element of football - belief, confidence, form, momentum.
In this relatively poor league, where any team can beat any other team, the mental side, the team spirit, the fight - the things that can't be shown in the data - will surely determine how successful a team like Stoke will be. My guess right now is that Stoke will out-perform their xG prediction this season, based on non statistical factors the data cannot analyse. Great points. Data analysis is a constant challenge between descriptive stats (what happened) and predictive stats (what's going to happen). We weight more recent data points, so if there's an improvement (for whatever reason) it does gradually filter through into the master team ratings we use to project future performance. I have to admit narrative driven explainations don't appeal to me, I really would like to see a tangible uptick in the underlying numbers. Which is what we have seen with MON (so that's very encouraging). 73% of Premier League teams who showed the most momentum between the first 3rd of a season and the second third (without showing an improvement in their underlying figures) promptly lost that momentum in the final 3rd, suggesting "improvement" can just be statistical noise. Stoke, post NJ are averaging 1.54 xG per game and allowing 0.99 xG per game. That's consistent with 24 points over the period, we've won 23. (Nice solid underpinned performance) Under NJ this season it was 1.3 for and 1.24 against. Consistent with 20 points. We won 8........Unlucky as....
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Post by samstokie1 on Jan 28, 2020 11:06:50 GMT
Considering how bad we were against West Brom at home in the last game before he came, and the fact that we were 6 points off safety, where we are now is a very dramatic change.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 11:40:12 GMT
There's also been a change in ball progression. (getting the ball into dangerous areas).
Our ball progression as measured by the xG improvement through successful passes and carries has improved by 4% under MON compared to NJ
Opposition ball progression has decreased by 4% under MON compared to NJ.
We're turning the screw more & knocking the opposition out of their stride.
Splits have changed also.
More of the dangerous ball progression is coming from passes, rather than carries under MON compared to NJ.
It's a pretty decent overhaul.
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Post by s8to on Jan 28, 2020 12:22:33 GMT
There's also been a change in ball progression. (getting the ball into dangerous areas). Our ball progression as measured by the xG improvement through successful passes and carries has improved by 4% under MON compared to NJ Opposition ball progression has decreased by 4% under MON compared to NJ. We're turning the screw more & knocking the opposition out of their stride. Splits have changed also. More of the dangerous ball progression is coming from passes, rather than carries under MON compared to NJ. It's a pretty decent overhaul. ... Meaning? So if we carried on with this progression, when would we get near promotion, or indeed get promoted? Play off's this season, or more likely a full on tilt at it next season? Or is it that simple or predictable?
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Post by Bagwash on Jan 28, 2020 12:49:27 GMT
I don't want to tempt fate but a few weeks ago I would have snapped your hands off for a 4th from bottom finish but in the short time MON has been here,the improvement in our team has been immense and I can see us not making the playoffs but not being too far off. The biggest improvement for me is the players fitness as they dont seem to be blowing out of there arses at 70 minutes like they were under the previous manager(s). Long may it continue.
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Post by tachyon on Jan 28, 2020 13:03:15 GMT
Meaning? So if we carried on with this progression, when would we get near promotion, or indeed get promoted? Play off's this season, or more likely a full on tilt at it next season? Or is it that simple or predictable? We've upgraded Stoke's ratings to that of a side who would expect to get around 70 points over the course of a full season. If you want to go full MON it's 81 points
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Post by s8to on Jan 28, 2020 14:53:55 GMT
Meaning? So if we carried on with this progression, when would we get near promotion, or indeed get promoted? Play off's this season, or more likely a full on tilt at it next season? Or is it that simple or predictable? We've upgraded Stoke's ratings to that of a side who would expect to get around 70 points over the course of a full season. If you want to go full MON it's 81 points Interesting indeed, thanks for that
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Post by okeydokeystokie2 on Jan 28, 2020 17:29:23 GMT
[/qu ote]Thanks. I love your statistical analysis.
I understand how the data analyses performance - it supports what we see with our own eyes.
I am less confident about predicted trends based on past data. It ignores the human element of football - belief, confidence, form, momentum.
In this relatively poor league, where any team can beat any other team, the mental side, the team spirit, the fight - the things that can't be shown in the data - will surely determine how successful a team like Stoke will be. My guess right now is that Stoke will out-perform their xG prediction this season, based on non statistical factors the data cannot analyse. Great points. Data analysis is a constant challenge between descriptive stats (what happened) and predictive stats (what's going to happen). We weight more recent data points, so if there's an improvement (for whatever reason) it does gradually filter through into the master team ratings we use to project future performance. I have to admit narrative driven explainations don't appeal to me, I really would like to see a tangible uptick in the underlying numbers. Which is what we have seen with MON (so that's very encouraging). 73% of Premier League teams who showed the most momentum between the first 3rd of a season and the second third (without showing an improvement in their underlying figures) promptly lost that momentum in the final 3rd, suggesting "improvement" can just be statistical noise. Stoke, post NJ are averaging 1.54 xG per game and allowing 0.99 xG per game. That's consistent with 24 points over the period, we've won 23. (Nice solid underpinned performance) Under NJ this season it was 1.3 for and 1.24 against. Consistent with 20 points. We won 8........Unlucky as.... Thanks for the reply. Absolutely fascinating. Two more quick points. I love the narrative analysis! Having spent a large chunk of my working life with writing as part of my job, I love the written and spoken word when it cones to match analysis. Although I'm fascinated by how accurate data analysis can be, I'm also a little underwhelmed by it. It kind of sucks the soul out of "the beautiful game". Paddy Cerrand's description of George Best giving defenders "twisted blood" conjures up an accurate, realistic image of that change of pace and direction as Best jinked past his markers. Averaging 1.54 xG per game doesn't really make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up. Likewise, Cliff Morgan's beautiful, lyrical commentary on Gareth Edwards early try for the Barbarians against The All Blacks in 1973 (?) is like commentary, reportage, poetry and instant folklore rolled into one. "Brilliant, that's brilliant!" It's become the sound track to an immortal passage of Rugby, just like "They think it's all over - it is now!" I know that, unlike the data, it actually tells us nothing, but somehow it tells us everything, and it stays with us forever. Maybe it's the difference between science and entertainment. In some cases almost art. I'll be fascinated to see how we go against our predictive data. I still think we'll out perform. Not based on data, but based on a feeling, a hunch, seeing the confidence, belief and team spirit flood back into this group of players. Btw, just in case you've never heard it, here's Cliff.
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