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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 9:35:57 GMT
The only manager you could make a case for being sacked prematurely was Lambert. Hughes was too late, Rowett should have kept his mouth shut and might have held on but it was entirely his own fault after being given the biggest budget in the championship and Jones well the results speak for themselves. What other club has tolerated such a ridiculously poor run? I'm not questioning the rights and wrongs of the sackings, just the quoted figure of 4 in 18 months. In the last 15 years we've had 4 full time managers and 2 caretakers, now that's not a bad record at all. Like I say only last season was a blip on the record. Oh I see. Yep totally agree.
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Post by SCFC92 on Sept 10, 2019 9:41:17 GMT
The only manager you could make a case for being sacked prematurely was Lambert. Hughes was too late, Rowett should have kept his mouth shut and might have held on but it was entirely his own fault after being given the biggest budget in the championship and Jones well the results speak for themselves. What other club has tolerated such a ridiculously poor run? I'm not questioning the rights and wrongs of the sackings, just the quoted figure of 4 in 18 months. In the last 15 years we've had 4 full time managers and 2 caretakers, now that's not a bad record at all. Like I say only last season was a blip on the record. 4 Full Time Managers in the last 24 months, the facts are the facts just like Jones' games in charge. If you spin the 4 managers in 24 months to be 2, then the people backing Jones can sure as hell write off last season and go for the first 6 games of this season only to judge, meaning he deserves more time.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 10, 2019 9:49:07 GMT
So you think he can survive either 2 defeats or 1draw and a defeat🤔What gives you such confidence? I don't think he'll lose the next 2 but even if he did I don't think he'll be fired. If we're looking like it's likely we could go down in a month's time then things will change. This is a long term project, the board will only fire him as a very last resort. There's only been a few games played this season and after having 4 managers in just over 18 months I think he'll get a lot more time than if he was say the 2nd manager in 18 months. So we give him 5 league games up until the next international break with 3 at home.How many points is acceptable then out of 15 to keep his job in your opinion?For me I don’t t think we’ll get anything from the Brentford and Swansea away games so that leaves the 3 home games against Bristol City,Forest and Huddersfield which must surely produce at least 5 points,is that enough? That would leave a new manager(if appointed) 35 games to get us to the 50 point mark to avoid relegation when on my points tally we’d have 6 points so far.On the strength of the last 3 managers appointed it would take some doing considering their records.
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Post by potterpaul on Sept 10, 2019 9:51:24 GMT
I'm not questioning the rights and wrongs of the sackings, just the quoted figure of 4 in 18 months. In the last 15 years we've had 4 full time managers and 2 caretakers, now that's not a bad record at all. Like I say only last season was a blip on the record. 4 Full Time Managers in the last 24 months, the facts are the facts just like Jones' games in charge. If you spin the 4 managers in 24 months to be 2, then the people backing Jones can sure as hell write off last season and go for the first 6 games of this season only to judge, meaning he deserves more time. What on earth are you babbling at? It's one of the excuses used not to sack him, "We can't keep sacking managers". You must have read it it's been said enough on here. It's poor excuse and shouldn't be used especially as the figures can be disputed
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Post by FranktheRabbit on Sept 10, 2019 10:05:39 GMT
I don't think he'll lose the next 2 but even if he did I don't think he'll be fired. If we're looking like it's likely we could go down in a month's time then things will change. This is a long term project, the board will only fire him as a very last resort. There's only been a few games played this season and after having 4 managers in just over 18 months I think he'll get a lot more time than if he was say the 2nd manager in 18 months. So we give him 5 league games up until the next international break with 3 at home.How many points is acceptable then out of 15 to keep his job in your opinion?For me I don’t t think we’ll get anything from the Brentford and Swansea away games so that leaves the 3 home games against Bristol City,Forest and Huddersfield which must surely produce at least 5 points,is that enough? That would leave a new manager(if appointed) 35 games to get us to the 50 point mark to avoid relegation when on my points tally we’d have 6 points so far.On the strength of the last 3 managers appointed it would take some doing considering their records. I think from the next 5 games I would be happy with 7 points. A win at home to Brizzle and Huddersfield possibly drawing with forest. I can't see us getting anything against Brentford or Swansea, but you never know.
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Post by SCFC92 on Sept 10, 2019 10:49:02 GMT
4 Full Time Managers in the last 24 months, the facts are the facts just like Jones' games in charge. If you spin the 4 managers in 24 months to be 2, then the people backing Jones can sure as hell write off last season and go for the first 6 games of this season only to judge, meaning he deserves more time. What on earth are you babbling at? It's one of the excuses used not to sack him, "We can't keep sacking managers". You must have read it it's been said enough on here. It's poor excuse and shouldn't be used especially as the figures can be disputed Maybe I have missed your point but what I gathered was.. You were trying to justify that sacking him wouldn't be as bad for our image of being a no sack club due to being able to discount sacking Hughes and Lambert.. if I have misunderstood please correct me. So what I am "babbling at" is that if we can bend the truth and fact that we have indeed sacked 4 managers if we sack Jones in a very short period of time, we can bend the truth and facts of Jones' tenure, in that, we should ignore last season due to it not being his team, and only judge him on results from this campaign, with it being his team with his philosophy implemented, in which case, you don't sack after 6 games. I myself, after a slight wobble post Birmingham and having clearer thought now, would give him to the next international break, we aren't looking likely to mount a serious playoff challenge this year at the moment, and if we change managers I don't see that changing. We need to implement a philosophy, a style from the top of the club down the kit team. You don't do that through hiring and firing. However if things look bleak after 10 games, then the facts can be argued for this season. September is the most important month in Jones' Stoke City career.
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Post by FrankButcher on Sept 10, 2019 11:25:18 GMT
While we are on the subject of potentially having 4 managers in 24 months. I was speaking to an employee who works behind the scenes at Derby County this morning when it came to discussing stoke he thought hiring both Rowett and NJ were both bad appointments and said the Coates Family got it badly wrong. I don't think people see us as a sacking club at all most people think we have made bad decisions recruiting the wrong type of managers.
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Post by potterpaul on Sept 10, 2019 11:27:49 GMT
While we are on the subject of potentially having 4 managers in 24 months. I was speaking to an employee who works behind the scenes at Derby County this morning when it came to discussing stoke he thought hiring both Rowett and NJ were both bad appointments and said the Coates Family got it badly wrong. I don't think people see us as a sacking club at all most people think we have made bad decisions recruiting the wrong type of managers. Really? Who'd have thought it
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Post by nott1 on Sept 10, 2019 11:45:18 GMT
So we give him 5 league games up until the next international break with 3 at home.How many points is acceptable then out of 15 to keep his job in your opinion?For me I don’t t think we’ll get anything from the Brentford and Swansea away games so that leaves the 3 home games against Bristol City,Forest and Huddersfield which must surely produce at least 5 points,is that enough? That would leave a new manager(if appointed) 35 games to get us to the 50 point mark to avoid relegation when on my points tally we’d have 6 points so far.On the strength of the last 3 managers appointed it would take some doing considering their records. I think from the next 5 games I would be happy with 7 points. A win at home to Brizzle and Huddersfield possibly drawing with forest. I can't see us getting anything against Brentford or Swansea, but you never know. We'll still be bottom then?
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Post by FranktheRabbit on Sept 10, 2019 12:42:18 GMT
I think from the next 5 games I would be happy with 7 points. A win at home to Brizzle and Huddersfield possibly drawing with forest. I can't see us getting anything against Brentford or Swansea, but you never know. We'll still be bottom then? I know, but there is no quick fix given our recent results. I'd love us to get 15 points from the next 5 but barring a miracle, that's not going to happen. If we could go on and win a few games it may give us the boost/confidence we are so desperately in need of to start picking up points and climb the table. Changing manager at this point doesn't give us instant security...a new guy could come in and it could take him another 4/5/6 games to get a result. We are best sticking for now, to the next international break at least.
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Post by tony1234 on Sept 10, 2019 12:58:21 GMT
As I believe we really really need someone with experience and gravitas who knows what they are doing in this league, the only reason to wait any time before sacking Jones would be if Bruce was imminently available. Can't see Hughton, Moyes or Allardyce taking us on now - we are too joyless. Monk & QSF have been taken. TP would be too divisive at a time we need togetherness. Pearson would be a big risk - could work well, could backfire if he starts hammering into the players. If we get rid of Jones and leave a void, can see it ending up as Kevin Phillips or Rory Delap. One fluked win as a caretake boss should secure their services.
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Post by tony1234 on Sept 10, 2019 13:52:13 GMT
Just had a scan through September's past to see what happens to the bottom club after 6 games..... and understand a little about our prognosis based on these 10 years.
Of the last 10 clubs that were bottom at this point, only one have had a worse start with 0 pts (Peterboro) though a few others also had 1 pt. (So only 1 out of 240 teams have had a worse start over the past 10 years) ... the average final position of the clubs bottom at this point is 20th. (The best recovery being Portsmouth in 2010/11 who finished 16th) --- 3/10 were relegated ---Of the last 10 clubs who were bottom at this point, 6 were subsequently relegated that season or afterwards
Of the last 30 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at this point, the average final position was 17th .... the best position was Reading - who recovered to finish top!! .... 9/30 were relegated .... 1 in 30 (i.e. Reading) were promoted (none finished in the play off positions). .... Of the 23 different clubs who were in the bottom 3 after 6 games over the last 10 seasons, 14 (i.e. 2 in 3) were relegated in that or subsequent seasons
So our odds, as a team currently bottom:- Relegation this season = about 1 in 3. (Greater than 1 in 2 over this plus subsequent seasons) Most likely finishing position this season = 20th. Best we can realistically hope for = 16th
Stats: 9 Sept 2018 - Reading P6, 2pts. Final position: 20. Other bottom 3 = QPR (19), Ipswich (24R) 9 Sept 2017 - Bolton P6, 2pts. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Burton (23R), Brentford (9) 10 Sept 2016 - Blackburn P6, 2pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Leeds (7), Preston (11) 12 Sept 2015 - Rotherham P6, 2pt. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Blackburn (15), Huddersfield (19) 13 Sept 2014 - Fulham P6, 1pt. Final position: 17. Other bottom 3 = Bolton (18), Blackpool (24R) 15 Sept 2013 - Millwall P6, 2pts. Final position: 19. Other bottom 3 = Barnsley (23R), Bolton (14) 19 Sept 2012 - Peterborough P6, 0pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Charlton (9), Ipswich (14) 13 Sept 2011 - Doncaster P6, 1pt. Final position: 24R. Other bottom 3 = Bristol C (20), Reading (1) 17 Sept 2010 - Portsmouth P6, 2pts. Final position: 16. Other bottom 3 = Derby (19), Preston (22R) 13 Sept 2009 - Barnsley P6, 1pt. Final position: 18. Other bottom 3 = Ipswich (15), Plymouth (23R)
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Post by citynickscfc on Sept 10, 2019 20:34:57 GMT
Just had a scan through September's past to see what happens to the bottom club after 6 games..... and understand a little about our prognosis based on these 10 years. Of the last 10 clubs that were bottom at this point, only one have had a worse start with 0 pts (Peterboro) though a few others also had 1 pt. (So only 1 out of 240 teams have had a worse start over the past 10 years) ... the average final position of the clubs bottom at this point is 20th. (The best recovery being Portsmouth in 2010/11 who finished 16th) --- 3/10 were relegated ---Of the last 10 clubs who were bottom at this point, 6 were subsequently relegated that season or afterwards Of the last 30 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at this point, the average final position was 17th .... the best position was Reading - who recovered to finish top!! .... 9/30 were relegated .... 1 in 30 (i.e. Reading) were promoted (none finished in the play off positions). .... Of the 23 different clubs who were in the bottom 3 after 6 games over the last 10 seasons, 14 (i.e. 2 in 3) were relegated in that or subsequent seasons So our odds, as a team currently bottom:- Relegation this season = about 1 in 3. (Greater than 1 in 2 over this plus subsequent seasons) Most likely finishing position this season = 20th. Best we can realistically hope for = 16th  Stats: 9 Sept 2018 - Reading P6, 2pts. Final position: 20. Other bottom 3 = QPR (19), Ipswich (24R) 9 Sept 2017 - Bolton P6, 2pts. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Burton (23R), Brentford (9) 10 Sept 2016 - Blackburn P6, 2pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Leeds (7), Preston (11) 12 Sept 2015 - Rotherham P6, 2pt. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Blackburn (15), Huddersfield (19) 13 Sept 2014 - Fulham P6, 1pt. Final position: 17. Other bottom 3 = Bolton (18), Blackpool (24R) 15 Sept 2013 - Millwall P6, 2pts. Final position: 19. Other bottom 3 = Barnsley (23R), Bolton (14) 19 Sept 2012 - Peterborough P6, 0pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Charlton (9), Ipswich (14) 13 Sept 2011 - Doncaster P6, 1pt. Final position: 24R. Other bottom 3 = Bristol C (20), Reading (1) 17 Sept 2010 - Portsmouth P6, 2pts. Final position: 16. Other bottom 3 = Derby (19), Preston (22R) 13 Sept 2009 - Barnsley P6, 1pt. Final position: 18. Other bottom 3 = Ipswich (15), Plymouth (23R) So basically we lose the next 2-3 ganes and we are pretty fucked. Jesus. And people don't think we should roll the dice and change the manager for someone with known pedigree and authority? Shit creek no paddle
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Post by robrigo on Sept 10, 2019 20:45:46 GMT
I’d give him 3 more games maximum. I’d give him a remit of seven points out of nine with a considerable improvement in performance ie not collapsing like a bunch of pussies if we concede and no more nonsense talk about scoring to early. And I’d like to see some evidence of having a settled side not changing 7 or 8 players each week. I would also like to see him have the courage of his convictions with regards to formation- are we going diamond or whatever. And finally I would like to see some tactical nouse during the game.
I want all of that in the next three games because he’s got the future of our club in his hands.
Idealistic I know but that’s what I want. 😂
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Post by Pricey on Sept 10, 2019 21:06:47 GMT
Just had a scan through September's past to see what happens to the bottom club after 6 games..... and understand a little about our prognosis based on these 10 years. Of the last 10 clubs that were bottom at this point, only one have had a worse start with 0 pts (Peterboro) though a few others also had 1 pt. (So only 1 out of 240 teams have had a worse start over the past 10 years) ... the average final position of the clubs bottom at this point is 20th. (The best recovery being Portsmouth in 2010/11 who finished 16th) --- 3/10 were relegated ---Of the last 10 clubs who were bottom at this point, 6 were subsequently relegated that season or afterwards Of the last 30 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at this point, the average final position was 17th .... the best position was Reading - who recovered to finish top!! .... 9/30 were relegated .... 1 in 30 (i.e. Reading) were promoted (none finished in the play off positions). .... Of the 23 different clubs who were in the bottom 3 after 6 games over the last 10 seasons, 14 (i.e. 2 in 3) were relegated in that or subsequent seasons So our odds, as a team currently bottom:- Relegation this season = about 1 in 3. (Greater than 1 in 2 over this plus subsequent seasons) Most likely finishing position this season = 20th. Best we can realistically hope for = 16th Stats: 9 Sept 2018 - Reading P6, 2pts. Final position: 20. Other bottom 3 = QPR (19), Ipswich (24R) 9 Sept 2017 - Bolton P6, 2pts. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Burton (23R), Brentford (9) 10 Sept 2016 - Blackburn P6, 2pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Leeds (7), Preston (11) 12 Sept 2015 - Rotherham P6, 2pt. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Blackburn (15), Huddersfield (19) 13 Sept 2014 - Fulham P6, 1pt. Final position: 17. Other bottom 3 = Bolton (18), Blackpool (24R) 15 Sept 2013 - Millwall P6, 2pts. Final position: 19. Other bottom 3 = Barnsley (23R), Bolton (14) 19 Sept 2012 - Peterborough P6, 0pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Charlton (9), Ipswich (14) 13 Sept 2011 - Doncaster P6, 1pt. Final position: 24R. Other bottom 3 = Bristol C (20), Reading (1) 17 Sept 2010 - Portsmouth P6, 2pts. Final position: 16. Other bottom 3 = Derby (19), Preston (22R) 13 Sept 2009 - Barnsley P6, 1pt. Final position: 18. Other bottom 3 = Ipswich (15), Plymouth (23R) That's exceptional. If you can be arsed can you look at teams that were bottom after 7, 8, 9 and 10 games as well? At what point does it fall over the cliff into certain relegation? What website are you using to do this? Thank you!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 21:19:14 GMT
Just had a scan through September's past to see what happens to the bottom club after 6 games..... and understand a little about our prognosis based on these 10 years. Of the last 10 clubs that were bottom at this point, only one have had a worse start with 0 pts (Peterboro) though a few others also had 1 pt. (So only 1 out of 240 teams have had a worse start over the past 10 years) ... the average final position of the clubs bottom at this point is 20th. (The best recovery being Portsmouth in 2010/11 who finished 16th) --- 3/10 were relegated ---Of the last 10 clubs who were bottom at this point, 6 were subsequently relegated that season or afterwards Of the last 30 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at this point, the average final position was 17th .... the best position was Reading - who recovered to finish top!! .... 9/30 were relegated .... 1 in 30 (i.e. Reading) were promoted (none finished in the play off positions). .... Of the 23 different clubs who were in the bottom 3 after 6 games over the last 10 seasons, 14 (i.e. 2 in 3) were relegated in that or subsequent seasons So our odds, as a team currently bottom:- Relegation this season = about 1 in 3. (Greater than 1 in 2 over this plus subsequent seasons) Most likely finishing position this season = 20th. Best we can realistically hope for = 16th Stats: 9 Sept 2018 - Reading P6, 2pts. Final position: 20. Other bottom 3 = QPR (19), Ipswich (24R) 9 Sept 2017 - Bolton P6, 2pts. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Burton (23R), Brentford (9) 10 Sept 2016 - Blackburn P6, 2pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Leeds (7), Preston (11) 12 Sept 2015 - Rotherham P6, 2pt. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Blackburn (15), Huddersfield (19) 13 Sept 2014 - Fulham P6, 1pt. Final position: 17. Other bottom 3 = Bolton (18), Blackpool (24R) 15 Sept 2013 - Millwall P6, 2pts. Final position: 19. Other bottom 3 = Barnsley (23R), Bolton (14) 19 Sept 2012 - Peterborough P6, 0pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Charlton (9), Ipswich (14) 13 Sept 2011 - Doncaster P6, 1pt. Final position: 24R. Other bottom 3 = Bristol C (20), Reading (1) 17 Sept 2010 - Portsmouth P6, 2pts. Final position: 16. Other bottom 3 = Derby (19), Preston (22R) 13 Sept 2009 - Barnsley P6, 1pt. Final position: 18. Other bottom 3 = Ipswich (15), Plymouth (23R) You should send that little lot to the club. I'm sure that's much more in depth research than they've been doing regarding our plight. It just might wake them up - then again, probably not.
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Post by tony1234 on Sept 10, 2019 21:58:23 GMT
Just had a scan through September's past to see what happens to the bottom club after 6 games..... and understand a little about our prognosis based on these 10 years. Of the last 10 clubs that were bottom at this point, only one have had a worse start with 0 pts (Peterboro) though a few others also had 1 pt. (So only 1 out of 240 teams have had a worse start over the past 10 years) ... the average final position of the clubs bottom at this point is 20th. (The best recovery being Portsmouth in 2010/11 who finished 16th) --- 3/10 were relegated ---Of the last 10 clubs who were bottom at this point, 6 were subsequently relegated that season or afterwards Of the last 30 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at this point, the average final position was 17th .... the best position was Reading - who recovered to finish top!! .... 9/30 were relegated .... 1 in 30 (i.e. Reading) were promoted (none finished in the play off positions). .... Of the 23 different clubs who were in the bottom 3 after 6 games over the last 10 seasons, 14 (i.e. 2 in 3) were relegated in that or subsequent seasons So our odds, as a team currently bottom:- Relegation this season = about 1 in 3. (Greater than 1 in 2 over this plus subsequent seasons) Most likely finishing position this season = 20th. Best we can realistically hope for = 16th Stats: 9 Sept 2018 - Reading P6, 2pts. Final position: 20. Other bottom 3 = QPR (19), Ipswich (24R) 9 Sept 2017 - Bolton P6, 2pts. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Burton (23R), Brentford (9) 10 Sept 2016 - Blackburn P6, 2pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Leeds (7), Preston (11) 12 Sept 2015 - Rotherham P6, 2pt. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Blackburn (15), Huddersfield (19) 13 Sept 2014 - Fulham P6, 1pt. Final position: 17. Other bottom 3 = Bolton (18), Blackpool (24R) 15 Sept 2013 - Millwall P6, 2pts. Final position: 19. Other bottom 3 = Barnsley (23R), Bolton (14) 19 Sept 2012 - Peterborough P6, 0pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Charlton (9), Ipswich (14) 13 Sept 2011 - Doncaster P6, 1pt. Final position: 24R. Other bottom 3 = Bristol C (20), Reading (1) 17 Sept 2010 - Portsmouth P6, 2pts. Final position: 16. Other bottom 3 = Derby (19), Preston (22R) 13 Sept 2009 - Barnsley P6, 1pt. Final position: 18. Other bottom 3 = Ipswich (15), Plymouth (23R) That's exceptional. If you can be arsed can you look at teams that were bottom after 7, 8, 9 and 10 games as well? At what point does it fall over the cliff into certain relegation? What website are you using to do this? Thank you! ta....good question! It seems to move slower than that.... Here you go... after 10 games its gone to 4 bottom clubs out of 10 relegated, by 15 games its 5 of the bottom clubs relegated out of 10.... (Am not sure how to add pictures or attachments here..... sorry! its come out in about 0.2pt font, below) Website is here - www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/10-september-2018/What would also be interesting is to see when teams changed their manager. Might be another night though! Another addendum... "how many relegated clubs were in the bottom 3 after 6, 10, and 15 games?". Answer is 9 (30%), 12 (40%) and 17 (57%) respectively. (Percentages reflect 30 teams have been relegated in 10 years). All this suggests: Right and here now, the chances are still against us being relegated (1 in 3 chance of it happening). However, between 10 and 15 games, if we are still in the bottom 3, the odds flip and it becomes more likely we will be relegated. Still in the Bottom 3 after 12 games, its about 50:50.
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Post by march4 on Sept 11, 2019 20:19:42 GMT
Tonight’s vote of confidence from PC really racks up the importance of Saturday’s game.
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Post by Somebody_Told_Me on Sept 12, 2019 21:38:35 GMT
Just had a scan through September's past to see what happens to the bottom club after 6 games..... and understand a little about our prognosis based on these 10 years. Of the last 10 clubs that were bottom at this point, only one have had a worse start with 0 pts (Peterboro) though a few others also had 1 pt. (So only 1 out of 240 teams have had a worse start over the past 10 years) ... the average final position of the clubs bottom at this point is 20th. (The best recovery being Portsmouth in 2010/11 who finished 16th) --- 3/10 were relegated ---Of the last 10 clubs who were bottom at this point, 6 were subsequently relegated that season or afterwards Of the last 30 clubs that were in the bottom 3 at this point, the average final position was 17th .... the best position was Reading - who recovered to finish top!! .... 9/30 were relegated .... 1 in 30 (i.e. Reading) were promoted (none finished in the play off positions). .... Of the 23 different clubs who were in the bottom 3 after 6 games over the last 10 seasons, 14 (i.e. 2 in 3) were relegated in that or subsequent seasons So our odds, as a team currently bottom:- Relegation this season = about 1 in 3. (Greater than 1 in 2 over this plus subsequent seasons) Most likely finishing position this season = 20th. Best we can realistically hope for = 16th Stats: 9 Sept 2018 - Reading P6, 2pts. Final position: 20. Other bottom 3 = QPR (19), Ipswich (24R) 9 Sept 2017 - Bolton P6, 2pts. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Burton (23R), Brentford (9) 10 Sept 2016 - Blackburn P6, 2pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Leeds (7), Preston (11) 12 Sept 2015 - Rotherham P6, 2pt. Final position: 21. Other bottom 3 = Blackburn (15), Huddersfield (19) 13 Sept 2014 - Fulham P6, 1pt. Final position: 17. Other bottom 3 = Bolton (18), Blackpool (24R) 15 Sept 2013 - Millwall P6, 2pts. Final position: 19. Other bottom 3 = Barnsley (23R), Bolton (14) 19 Sept 2012 - Peterborough P6, 0pts. Final position: 22R. Other bottom 3 = Charlton (9), Ipswich (14) 13 Sept 2011 - Doncaster P6, 1pt. Final position: 24R. Other bottom 3 = Bristol C (20), Reading (1) 17 Sept 2010 - Portsmouth P6, 2pts. Final position: 16. Other bottom 3 = Derby (19), Preston (22R) 13 Sept 2009 - Barnsley P6, 1pt. Final position: 18. Other bottom 3 = Ipswich (15), Plymouth (23R) Great post, though I first thought how deperate our situation is, and it is for the bottom team. I'm amazed by only 9 from 30 got relegated that season. Also what a great achievement by Reading! Where's Brian McDermott when you need him?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2019 21:50:25 GMT
While we are on the subject of potentially having 4 managers in 24 months. I was speaking to an employee who works behind the scenes at Derby County this morning when it came to discussing stoke he thought hiring both Rowett and NJ were both bad appointments and said the Coates Family got it badly wrong. I don't think people see us as a sacking club at all most people think we have made bad decisions recruiting the wrong type of managers. In hindsight
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Post by Pricey on Sept 14, 2019 8:51:03 GMT
That's exceptional. If you can be arsed can you look at teams that were bottom after 7, 8, 9 and 10 games as well? At what point does it fall over the cliff into certain relegation? What website are you using to do this? Thank you! ta....good question! It seems to move slower than that.... Here you go... after 10 games its gone to 4 bottom clubs out of 10 relegated, by 15 games its 5 of the bottom clubs relegated out of 10.... (Am not sure how to add pictures or attachments here..... sorry! its come out in about 0.2pt font, below) Website is here - www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/10-september-2018/What would also be interesting is to see when teams changed their manager. Might be another night though! Another addendum... "how many relegated clubs were in the bottom 3 after 6, 10, and 15 games?". Answer is 9 (30%), 12 (40%) and 17 (57%) respectively. (Percentages reflect 30 teams have been relegated in 10 years). All this suggests: Right and here now, the chances are still against us being relegated (1 in 3 chance of it happening). However, between 10 and 15 games, if we are still in the bottom 3, the odds flip and it becomes more likely we will be relegated. Still in the Bottom 3 after 12 games, its about 50:50. View AttachmentNice one. I might have a bit of look at it myself from a probability perspective. Feel like we need more of that on here. Want to analyse being bottom of the table especially.
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Post by tony1234 on Sept 14, 2019 9:19:25 GMT
ta....good question! It seems to move slower than that.... Here you go... after 10 games its gone to 4 bottom clubs out of 10 relegated, by 15 games its 5 of the bottom clubs relegated out of 10.... (Am not sure how to add pictures or attachments here..... sorry! its come out in about 0.2pt font, below) Website is here - www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-championship/10-september-2018/What would also be interesting is to see when teams changed their manager. Might be another night though! Another addendum... "how many relegated clubs were in the bottom 3 after 6, 10, and 15 games?". Answer is 9 (30%), 12 (40%) and 17 (57%) respectively. (Percentages reflect 30 teams have been relegated in 10 years). All this suggests: Right and here now, the chances are still against us being relegated (1 in 3 chance of it happening). However, between 10 and 15 games, if we are still in the bottom 3, the odds flip and it becomes more likely we will be relegated. Still in the Bottom 3 after 12 games, its about 50:50. Nice one. I might have a bit of look at it myself from a probability perspective. Feel like we need more of that on here. Want to analyse being bottom of the table especially. Great, look forward to seeing. The thing about being bottom definitely looks like it has some sort of additional "umph". Points scored by different numbers of games would be interesting too. How often can teams recover from having being cut adrift of 4th bottom after 6, 10, 15, 20 games etc? Btw if you ever want to get hardcore about prediction, there is a site with all results on (and some key match stats), going back some years, here - www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.phpLots of stuff out there as well about methods of prediction e.g. www2.stetson.edu/~efriedma/research/boldrin.pdf). Unfortunately, the maths looks horrible sometimes, but the basic principles is to use the likely number of goals scored and conceded by both teams in previous games, to work out the likely goals scored conceded in the game between them. The complexity comes about from a) choosing how many past games to look at (and whether to give more weighting to recent ones); b) whether you simply take the number of goals in past matches to predict the score - or you use stats like crosses, passes, possession as a predictor of "form" or "ability" to predict goals - and then predict the score from there etc. www2.stetson.edu/~efriedma/research/boldrin.pdf
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Post by robwahlmann on Sept 14, 2019 9:45:03 GMT
To me his last chance should be today! If we don't get 3 points today he really should get sacked (I've thought that for a while now by the way)!
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Post by RF10 on Sept 14, 2019 9:48:38 GMT
To me his last chance should be today! If we don't get 3 points today he really should get sacked (I've thought that for a while now by the way)! After a two week break it would be insane to sack him if result doesn't work out today.
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Post by chigstoke on Sept 14, 2019 9:56:41 GMT
To me his last chance should be today! If we don't get 3 points today he really should get sacked (I've thought that for a while now by the way)! After a two week break it would be insane to sack him if result doesn't work out today. All depends if this was a genuine backing for the manager or Mark Hughes "he has our full support" when the reality is he didn't. After the interview, I now think he's here for the long haul after previously thinking a loss today would result in him being sacked. We'll find out come 5pm with the FT result.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Sept 14, 2019 10:06:35 GMT
Jones not sacked then for today's game ;-)
Where's Glasgowstokie with my money...
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Post by Gary Hackett on Sept 14, 2019 10:13:22 GMT
To me his last chance should be today! If we don't get 3 points today he really should get sacked (I've thought that for a while now by the way)! After a two week break it would be insane to sack him if result doesn't work out today. Yeah, it's not going to happen. Another 3 losses or 5 games without a win would probably do it
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Post by robwahlmann on Sept 14, 2019 10:20:52 GMT
To me his last chance should be today! If we don't get 3 points today he really should get sacked (I've thought that for a while now by the way)! After a two week break it would be insane to sack him if result doesn't work out today. I think it was a mistake not to sack him after the Birmingham game.
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Post by FrankButcher on Sept 14, 2019 12:09:59 GMT
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Post by mickmillslovechild on Sept 14, 2019 12:20:07 GMT
If only there was another thread about Jones where you could have told us your opinion on him eh?
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