40 points

[felonious]

According to this BBC article 38 points is more than likely enough to stay up whilst 40 points will certainly be enough.

35 points is the new 40.

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564

"So how many points will be needed?

Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.

"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports."

[thebet365]

It's never been 40 really.

Take away that freak season West Ham went down with 42 points and it'll have been 38 points would have saved teams most seasons.

[thegift]

38 will be enough this year, we wont make it to 38 though.

[roylandstoke]

38 points is a hell of a long way away.

[raythesailor]

Don’t forget the goal difference.

It will be the nail in our coffin.

Hope I am wrong but my usual optimism is slowly ebbing away.

[The Drunken Communist]

I reckon 36pts could keep you up. Palace, Swansea & Huddersfield all currently 'safe' with 27pts, we're 3/4 of the way through the season so a third of 27 (9) added on for the fourth quarter gives 36pts as 'safety'. We're on 25pts now so 11pts more & we can relax.

Easy

[somersetstokie]

The way things look at the moment, I think we can only dream of reaching forty points.

[robstokie]

I cant see us getting anywhere near 40 at this moment in time - I can see us barely scrape 30 the way we are going...

[theplantpotter]

40 points is Fantasy land

[Onneravineet]

We will get 31 points and will be relegated in bottom position in my opinion, unfortunately. I hope that my guess is wrong and we’re good for accruing 13 points from now but I don’t see that.

[Billy the kid]

The margin for error has all but gone. That penalty save fuck up is the point at where I felt we had just about booked our ticket to relegation. It's not just the penalty granted but that as the point where it was/is all over as far as I can see. I really do hope we go on a blistering run but I really can't see it.

[brumstokie]

Before Saturday I had us getting 34 points but that included beating Brighton so I’m down to 32 now.
I hope we can pick 2 unexpected wins but sadly I can’t see where they are coming from, we just don’t have enough up front to get them - & that’s the board’s fault, no one else’s.

[JurgenVandeurzen]

Feb 14, 2018 16:48:29 GMT Onneravineet said:

We will get 31 points and will be relegated in bottom position in my opinion, unfortunately. I hope that my guess is wrong and we’re good for accruing 13 points from now but I don’t see that.

I can see us finishing bottom myself, unfortunately.

[Deleted]

We desperately need to beat Leicester. If we lose that, it's all over!

[Dr Hesham]

With too many competitors in the relegation battle, too many draws, 0 loss for man city by all team except liverpool I predict teams with 35 points will not relegate.

[homer32]

40 pts used to be the mark when there were only 2 dominant teams ie Arsenal & Man Utd in the Premiership and we would be looking to take points off all the other teams in order to reach the expected target of 40pts.Now there are 6 dominant teams where we are struggling to pick up any points from so there are less points available for teams looking to stay up.The big 6 home and away account for a possible 36 pts where we can only expect to pick up possibly 1 or 2 wins and 2 or 3 draws at best ie around 6 or 9 points.I think 35 pts will be safe so in theory we can still stay up comfortably but whether we will or not is another matter.

[terryconroysmagic]

I'm not looking at points at the moment, I'm looking at the way we are currently playing. Our current form says we are going down!

[Veritas]

Feb 14, 2018 16:48:29 GMT Onneravineet said:

We will get 31 points and will be relegated in bottom position in my opinion, unfortunately. I hope that my guess is wrong and we’re good for accruing 13 points from now but I don’t see that.

We will get more than 31 points and will not finish bottom but will unfortunately in all probability still go down.

[Hannibal]

Did the premier league predictor on the other thread and I've got us staying up on 35 points. 3 wins and a draw from 11 games, definitely possible

[loosestools]

Feb 14, 2018 16:55:41 GMT Billy the kid said:

The margin for error has all but gone. That penalty save fuck up is the point at where I felt we had just about booked our ticket to relegation. It's not just the penalty granted but that as the point where it was/is all over as far as I can see. I really do hope we go on a blistering run but I really can't see it.

That penalty miss signalled  the death knell.  After that it is all over.

[benjaminbiscuit]

Same arivle says we’ve a 60% chance if bern relegated , statistics hey , it wa 100% back on August deadline day when we banked the cash didn’t replace Arnie , didn’t buy a midfielder or full backs or a striker .

[Gods]

I think we will finish bottom.

[loosestools]

Feb 14, 2018 20:10:48 GMT benjaminbiscuit said:

Same arivle says we’ve a 60% chance if bern relegated , statistics hey , it wa 100% back on August deadline day when we banked the cash didn’t replace Arnie , didn’t buy a midfielder or full backs or a striker .

What?

[bambered]

Feb 14, 2018 20:02:21 GMT Hannibal said:

Did the premier league predictor on the other thread and I've got us staying up on 35 points. 3 wins and a draw from 11 games, definitely possible

Absolutely.

Everton, Burnley & Palace are winnable home games - if we win those then 1pt from the other 8 games should be a piece of cake.

I really don't understand all the negativity, we're not adrift at the bottom and there's 11 games left.

Keep the faith

[tqstokie]

We need to win three home games, Everton, Burnley and Crystal Palace seem possible and draw three more games, Swansea, West Ham and Southampton to give or us 37 points.

[numpty40]

If we can somehow win 4 points from our next two games my faith will be restored, anything less and I'll be as pessimistic as everyone else.

[Deleted]

The 32 we'll end up on won't be enough then...??

[padders01]

Feb 14, 2018 17:56:12 GMT @robo51 said:

We desperately need to beat Leicester. If we lose that, it's all over!

Think that’s more applicable to Southampton game for me

Lose there and at Leicester then we will be a drift with ONE WIN IN TEN!

[padders01]

Feb 14, 2018 20:56:14 GMT bambered said:

Feb 14, 2018 20:02:21 GMT Hannibal said:

Did the premier league predictor on the other thread and I've got us staying up on 35 points. 3 wins and a draw from 11 games, definitely possible

Absolutely.

Everton, Burnley & Palace are winnable home games - if we win those then 1pt from the other 8 games should be a piece of cake.

I really don't understand all the negativity, we're not adrift at the bottom and there's 11 games left.

Keep the faith

So was Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth and Newcastle

Look what happened there!

[BuzzB]

If you think we can do it, we are even money with 365, 4/5 to drop.