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Post by Gods on Feb 14, 2018 22:59:10 GMT
If we can somehow win 4 points from our next two games my faith will be restored, anything less and I'll be as pessimistic as everyone else. We've only won 6 points away all season mate. I can't see us winning 4 in the next 2 games both of which are against superior opposition.
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Post by pottarius on Feb 15, 2018 2:52:09 GMT
If we can somehow win 4 points from our next two games my faith will be restored, anything less and I'll be as pessimistic as everyone else. We've only won 6 points away all season mate. I can't see us winning 4 in the next 2 games both of which are against superior opposition. Technically all our remaining games are against superior opposition
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Post by darksideofthemoon on Feb 15, 2018 7:29:14 GMT
Same arivle says we’ve a 60% chance if bern relegated , statistics hey , it wa 100% back on August deadline day when we banked the cash didn’t replace Arnie , didn’t buy a midfielder or full backs or a striker . What? Benji-speak..........keep up, eh!?
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Post by tachyon on Feb 15, 2018 9:06:02 GMT
According to this BBC article 38 points is more than likely enough to stay up whilst 40 points will certainly be enough.
35 points is the new 40.
www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564
"So how many points will be needed?
Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.
"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports."
We're slightly more optimistic than Simon. We think 37 points is the point where survival becomes more likely than not. Unfortunately each team has its own personal survival target and likelihood and Stoke's poor goal difference only gives us a 57% chance of staying up if we get exactly 37 points. The really bad news is our most likely final points total as of now is just 35 points and although we could stay up with only 35 points, that scenario only happens 15 times out of every 100 occasions we limp to 35 final points. It's all summarised from the Stoke perspective here.
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Post by JurgenVandeurzen on Feb 15, 2018 11:41:31 GMT
I can't see us getting 30 points at the minute.
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Post by FullerMagic on Feb 15, 2018 11:50:38 GMT
According to this BBC article 38 points is more than likely enough to stay up whilst 40 points will certainly be enough.
35 points is the new 40.
www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564
"So how many points will be needed?
Using the same formula, Gracenote says 38 points "is more likely than not" to be enough, giving a 62% of staying up, but anything below that and it is a less than 50% chance.
"At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated," says Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports."
We're slightly more optimistic than Simon. We think 37 points is the point where survival becomes more likely than not. Unfortunately each team has its own personal survival target and likelihood and Stoke's poor goal difference only gives us a 57% chance of staying up if we get exactly 37 points. The really bad news is our most likely final points total as of now is just 35 points and although we could stay up with only 35 points, that scenario only happens 15 times out of every 100 occasions we limp to 35 final points. It's all summarised from the Stoke perspective here. Hmm. 37 seems a very long way off. My few goes on the Predictor thing seemed to give us a fair chance of staying up at around 35, but I must have been overly optimistic in dishing out the points to a few of the other bottom-dwellers. Pulling out the 4 wins we need from the 7 semi-realistic chances seems like a bit of a high wire act with no safety net.
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40 points
Feb 15, 2018 11:50:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by superheroantonius on Feb 15, 2018 11:50:44 GMT
I like badou and I like bauer
Its as if common sense has broken out and we have stopped signing dross
But when push come to shove, the board refused to pay for a slimani or a sturridge, to give us a cutting edge
So we are not going to get 40 points or even 38
Wba have forked out to get in rodrigez and sturridge West ham have forked out on arnautovic and hernandez
And we are going down on the cheap
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40 points
Feb 15, 2018 12:00:19 GMT
via mobile
Post by RF10 on Feb 15, 2018 12:00:19 GMT
13 needed then. We need to beat Leicester or Southampton to have a chance. Preferably vs Southampton. Any less than a win in either and I think would be curtains.
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40 points
Feb 16, 2018 6:00:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by salopstick on Feb 16, 2018 6:00:30 GMT
I like badou and I like bauer Its as if common sense has broken out and we have stopped signing dross But when push come to shove, the board refused to pay for a slimani or a sturridge, to give us a cutting edge So we are not going to get 40 points or even 38 Wba have forked out to get in rodrigez and sturridge West ham have forked out on arnautovic and hernandez And we are going down on the cheap Can’t judge slimani yet but we all know that there is reason why Sturridge isn’t banging them in for Liverpool he’s carried on the same form at brom.
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40 points
Feb 16, 2018 6:51:15 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 6:51:15 GMT
We are going down. The sooner folk accept it, the easier it will be when it's all definitely impossible to stay up.
Forget beating Leicester tomorrow as well. They're a far better team than us with pace to burn. We will get fuck all there.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 7:20:07 GMT
We are going down. The sooner folk accept it, the easier it will be when it's all definitely impossible to stay up. Forget beating Leicester tomorrow as well. They're a far better team than us with pace to burn. We will get fuck all there. It's the FA Cup this weekend mate - we don't play Leicester until the 24th. I agree with your comments though.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 7:23:04 GMT
I've done the predictor thing 3 or 4 times and even being as optimistic as possible I only get us at 34 points absolute max.
I can't see us realistically getting any more than 32 points and think we'll be down, finishing in 19th place. West Brom and Huddersfield to drop with us.
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40 points
Feb 16, 2018 8:16:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 8:16:01 GMT
We are going down. The sooner folk accept it, the easier it will be when it's all definitely impossible to stay up. Forget beating Leicester tomorrow as well. They're a far better team than us with pace to burn. We will get fuck all there. It's the FA Cup this weekend mate - we don't play Leicester until the 24th. I agree with your comments though. Ah right. I'll have good weekend then with no Stoke game to look forward to
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