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Post by interestedobserver on Nov 23, 2008 19:41:42 GMT
OK so as some of you know I have a Premiership simulator that plays out the rest of the season over and over again to find the likelihood of various outcomes in the table.
Today I became interested in how likely a team is to stay up if it achieves a certain point total.
The list below shows the percentage of time that the highest relegated team (18th place) finishes with a given point total or less. So for any point total (the first number) any team achieving at least that total plus one would have the given probability (the second number).
24: 0.0001
25: 0.0004
26: 0.0024
27: 0.0123
28: 0.0484
29: 0.1783
30: 0.55
31: 1.512
32: 3.71
33: 8.08
34: 15.85
35: 27.63
36: 43.14
37: 60.54
38: 76.57
39: 88.52
40: 95.49
41: 98.64
42: 99.70
43: 99.96
44: 99.996
45: 99.9997
46: 100
So to use a real example, Chelsea are on 33 points right now. So even if they lost every single game left in the season, they would have a 3.71 percent chance of staying up (3.71 being the percentage of time the team in 18th place has 32 points or fewer).
There are of course a few minor imperfections in these number since it doesn't take into account tie breakers. but you get the idea.
I hope this makes sense. I know it's a bit geeky. But I thought it might be of interest to some.
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Post by Miniman on Nov 23, 2008 19:43:37 GMT
So we need 46 to stay up??
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Post by MrMagic on Nov 23, 2008 19:45:15 GMT
I thought the the largest points for a relegated team what 42 (W ham). So if that is the case then 43 will be fine?
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Post by interestedobserver on Nov 23, 2008 19:46:41 GMT
So we need 46 to stay up?? Not necessarily. There is a very slim chance that we will need 46 to stay up. As I said, it's a bit geeky. But look at it this way. If we knew right now that we would reach 41 points, then we could say that we have about a 95.5% chance of that being enough to stay up. |
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Post by powchirper on Nov 23, 2008 19:47:53 GMT
You're right about it being a bit geeky but i can see what you're getting at and at this moment in the season 46 pts guarantees survival.
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Post by Miniman on Nov 23, 2008 19:48:32 GMT
This years total HAS to be the highest yet! Everyone has started the season relatively well, and the only team that ahs not passed Derby's total is Brazil! Anyone else falling in love with the Premier League!!! ;D
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Post by mark71 on Nov 23, 2008 19:48:52 GMT
??? i'm confused  |
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Post by powchirper on Nov 23, 2008 19:51:58 GMT
I went through the fixtures last night lookin where another 23 pts were coming from, this was without the help of a predictor thingy, as i'm the eternal pessimist i struggled, i then did it again with a fully fit Fuller and a firing on all cylinders LL and got us to 43 pts.
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Post by victoriaboothenboy on Nov 23, 2008 19:53:48 GMT
Why dont we just get 65 points and qualify for Europe,dont need a calculator or a geek then!!!!!
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Post by powchirper on Nov 23, 2008 19:53:45 GMT
This years total HAS to be the highest yet! Everyone has started the season relatively well, and the only team that ahs not passed Derby's total is Brazil! Anyone else falling in love with the Premier League!!! ;D There's also no Derby for every team bar Newcastle to rape and pillage points off so the totals will be higher this time. |
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Post by Miniman on Nov 23, 2008 19:54:11 GMT
My Database with all predictions (on here) give us a massive 53 points at the end of the season. I predicted again after yesterday and we ended up with 41. I'm 100% certain that we will end up between those margins. Used my own predictor  |
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Post by interestedobserver on Nov 23, 2008 20:02:16 GMT
??? i'm confused hmm, hard to explain briefly but i will give it a go the simulator assesses each team's strength based on games played so far and then uses those strengths to assess the likelihood that each team wins loses or draws each of its remaining games (the probabilities are based on historical outcomes of similar games). So for instance as of today Fulham appear to be better than Stoke by about a half a goal per game. The simulator would assess the likelihood of Stoke winning at Fulham by looking at the outcomes of similar games in past Prem seasons. Once the probabilities of the remaining games of the season are determined, the rest of the season is played out over and over again (usually a million times). At the end of each simulated season, various outcomes are tracked (who gets relegated, who qualifies for Champions League etc.) Let's say that over the course of 1000000 simulated seasons, Stoke are relegated 50000 times, then the estimated percent chance that Stoke are relegated are five percent. For the numbers presented in this thread, I simply tracked the number of points of the tema finishing 18th on the table in each simulated season. and the percentages for each point total show the percentage of simulated seasons where the 18th placed team finished with that point total or less. I guess this wasn't all that brief. |
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Post by mermaidsal on Nov 23, 2008 20:04:47 GMT
Good to see you back, interested. I'm reading that as saying we'd start being incredibly unlucky to go down around 37/8 points, is that right?
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Post by interestedobserver on Nov 23, 2008 20:10:35 GMT
Right mermaidsal, once we hit 38 we are over 60% chance to stay up (add one to the point value). As the season goes forward, the range on this table will narrow as reality 'hardens' and fewer outcomes are possible/likely.
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Post by bentrep01 on Nov 23, 2008 20:15:52 GMT
Bugger the projected target,lets get as many points as we can toprove the `experts` and twatty bookies like pissy puker wrong!!!CMOOOOOON STOKE  |
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Post by chinesedave on Nov 23, 2008 20:21:24 GMT
The last 6 x home games will prove our saviour. They are all winnable...take a look... I think we will finish on 45-50 points...we are over almost 40% safe points wise boys and girls... ;D |
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Post by Stephen Frys' Ring on Nov 23, 2008 21:07:09 GMT
OHHH MY GOD !!!!!!!   ;D  Do you live on your own or maybe with an elderly mother ! Also do you masturbate cats or dogs with sticks,or maybe over cats or dogs,alive or dead,whilst wearing their skulls' as caps ;D Do you really think this makes a jot,but thank you all the same. Get out,buy alcohol,in pub or offie,drink until you can't see straight then go talk to a female,or whatever floats your boat ! Peace & Love man,peace and love ! |
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;D 
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