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Post by interestedobserver on Nov 17, 2008 20:11:20 GMT
Earlier today I extracted the outcome odds for our next four matches. Here they are (as percentage)
W/D/L
WBA 50.6/28.5/21.9 Hull 36.0/27.5/36,5 @newcastle 27.6/27.4/45.0 Fulham 37.9/27.5/35.6
Simulator expects 5.67 points over the course of these games, In reality that would likely range from 4 up to 7. Expectation over the next two is 3.16 (ouch - i hope I am wrong).
Now before you go off on me about partial points. Think of a number like 3.16 representing an expectation of 3 with a result of 4 being slightly more favorable likely than a result of 2.
Also, these odds are more or less in line with the betting markets (at least for the first two where I could find odds).
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Post by stokie25 on Nov 17, 2008 20:17:39 GMT
Christ! you really are an 'interestedobserver' ! ;D
That's made my brain hurt...all i know is that 7 points from those 4 games will be bloody lovely, ta very much! ;D
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Post by surreystokie on Nov 18, 2008 13:23:21 GMT
Jamo, I'd think that 7 pts from the next three home matches would be brilliant, even though Fulham have a diabolical away record, as I'm worried about the West Brom game, even if they do have an appalling record of away goals and points, to date. Then be able to relax for the next three aways? Frankly, if we can't win at least one of the latter, we'll never win away, this season! Blackburn have an awful home record, while 'Castle are poor, anywhere. 11 points to and including Boxing Day is possible and that would be well more than half of what we need, to stay in the PL, after exactly half (19) of the games. In fact we probably only need the 7, to stay up, at 21 pts per half season and assuming that we'll do as well, during the second half, which hopefully may see our striker and pacy leftie problem resolved, in the transfer window. Blimey, it must be going away for two days, which has uplifted me.
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Post by truckerged on Nov 18, 2008 15:37:20 GMT
pugsley football aint as easy as that is it? otherwise i would be taking mr william hill to the cleaners every saturday, 6 points would be absoloutly bloody fantastic, 4 would be very good. three wouldnt be too bad,two?well at least we stopped them from getting three points!! any less than two then i shant be logging on for a while for all the experts we have on here telling mr pulis where we have gone wrong. having said that i have everything crossed for satdee but you know what its like in football we could hammer wba for ninety minuits hit the woodwork ten times have four cast iron penalties turned down and end up with a 0-0 or even worse 0-1. hope to god it doesnt happen but you never know in the beautiful game
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Post by lexie on Nov 18, 2008 19:39:11 GMT
agree with Jamo on the wing "the next 6 weeks could well have a huge bearing on our season" WBA will fancy there chances on Saturday and as for Hull we couldnt beat them last year and its going to be just as tough this time around. Would take 4 points now if offered
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2008 20:35:47 GMT
West Brom are there for the taking if we play to our strengths...which is strength! Even without Ricardo we need to be physical and rain in the throws and long balls. This is a game that winning will cause huge doubts to surface amongst the Baggies players and fans, and could see them end up as the dreaded 'bottom at Christmas' team. ;D
Hull defend with a solid 7 players and break using Giovanni's skill and the pace of Cousin and King. I believe TP should and will set us up to play our normal home gameplan.
I believe we can win both games, but will need to score twice in both to do so. 4pts is a good haul, but beating WBA is the priority.
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Post by headsgoup on Nov 18, 2008 23:59:32 GMT
We've the Indian sign over West Brom. It's the only game of the season I know for certain we'll win. They have a player called Donk who hunches his shoulders and closes's his eyes when going to head the ball. About the worst defender in the air I've ever seen. He's not much better on the floor. 4-0 Hull have got draws in there last two visits and played well. They like playing tippy-tappy sides and we are not one of those. They looked shaky at the back in there last few matches. We'll kick em off the park that one aswell. 3-2 Newcastle away is very winable because basically they're shit. But saying that we are away. We try harder though, so if we're up for it then it's a 1-0 win for us. Nine points, easy peasie.
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