|
|
Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Sept 27, 2024 14:02:29 GMT
It depends on what you think the league table is actually saying. If you think it is saying that the points 100% reflect the ability and and performance of each and every team in the league then yes it is lying. However it isn't saying that. It is saying this is how the teams lie in terms of the results they acheived through the season. And in those terms it does not lie and at the end of the day it's the only thing that matters. Personally I think that's how it should be - introduce marks for artistic merit and it is no longer a proper sport. Well yeah I don't think the sense of the saying is that the authorities are publishing fraudulent league tables showing incorrect points totals  Well no but when people say that the league table lies there is a sense that they think it isn't fair. Thing is the alternative is worse. |
|
|
|
Post by PotterLog on Sept 27, 2024 14:09:13 GMT
Well yeah I don't think the sense of the saying is that the authorities are publishing fraudulent league tables showing incorrect points totals Well no but when people say that the league table lies there is a sense that they think it isn't fair. Thing is the alternative is worse. Yeah I get what you mean. To be clear, I don't remotely have a problem with the system - football has an element of randomness and luck about it in general anyway, it's partly what makes it so compelling. I think it's also the thing that makes xG a valuable data point. You get freak seasons where (for example) relegated teams have play-off form xG - but over large sample sizes actual performance will always fall in line with xG, meaning it is a highly reliable indicator of how a team "should" be performing. |
|
|
|
Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Sept 27, 2024 14:23:47 GMT
It doesn’t always reflect current form so yes it can be deceiving The league table isn't meant to represent current form and if anyone is using it to assess current form is using it incorrectly. Why don't they use the current form table - the results over the last 6 games? That isn't perfect but it's way better than the league table. |
|
|
|
Post by Staffsoatcake on Sept 27, 2024 14:48:10 GMT
You finish where you finish because of how many points you have accumulated over the season,so how can it lie?
Should a team on 60pts finish above one who got 63pts,because they play better football?
|
|
|
|
Post by mickeythemaestro on Sept 27, 2024 14:56:28 GMT
You finish where you finish because of how many points you have accumulated over the season,so how can it lie? Should a team on 60pts finish above one who got 63pts,because they play better football? Exactly. Its 9 month league competition to see who can score the most points over that period playing the same number of games and playing each team home and away. Its that simple. |
|
|
|
Post by idle on Sept 27, 2024 14:56:56 GMT
It depends on what you think the league table is actually saying. If you think it is saying that the points 100% reflect the ability and and performance of each and every team in the league then yes it is lying. However it isn't saying that. It is saying this is how the teams lie in terms of the results they acheived through the season. And in those terms it does not lie and at the end of the day it's the only thing that matters. Personally I think that's how it should be - introduce marks for artistic merit and it is no longer a proper sport. I agree that the definition of "the table never lies" is the crux of the debate here. If it's taken to mean the literal example from your second sentence then there is no debate; because it becomes like saying "the calculator never lies". Realistically though I don't think many people who use/believe in this cliche' are using it in this way. They're using it as a metaphor for "at the end of a season, teams will finish exactly where they deserve to based on process relative to their competition". And this is where I think there is a fundamental, deep-rooted lack of understanding (amongst supporters especially) as to just how extreme variance is in football, and how small a sample a single season actually is. This is why it's so common these days to hear coaches talk about things like "process orientated approach" "control the controllables" etc. It might sound like mumbo-jumbo jargon, but it is important. It's their way of acknowledging that, in sport, you can do everything perfectly within your control and still suffer poor results in the short to medium term. So switching focus to the process instead of results is the optimal mentality for performance. Don't get too high after wins or too low after losses etc. Just stay focused on what you can control. It's against human intuition to see things this way but I think it would be helpful for the state of this forum if more people could get their heads around this stuff. You only have to look at the difference in tone on this forum when we've won narrowly or lost narrowly (in games that could've easily had opposing results) to see how incredibly fickle the emotions of football supporters are. Having said all this though, I'm definitely not implying that we should find an alternative way of measuring results that is more based on process. That would be the end of football. I'm just saying there is way more variance in the game than most people (including myself) can even begin to imagine. Luck is seriously underestimated in football. That being said, the table only measures combined successes over 46 games against 23 opponents. The point of each game is to score more than the opposition. Plain and simple, who scored more than their opponents every game over 46. That is what success in league football is about. Not "play better", have more xG, should've won, ifs and buts about injuries and poor refs, etc. |
|
|
|
Post by apb1 on Sept 27, 2024 15:09:18 GMT
Of course it can lie in terms of a current ranking as opposed to actual performance/potential finish.
Number of games played can differ, difficulty of matches played is also variable.
However, the more the season goes on, the less lies the table can tell.
Papers didn't even publish a table till three games in when I was a kid, but even that is a bit early to tell the full truth.
|
|
|
|
Post by PotterLog on Sept 27, 2024 16:18:11 GMT
You finish where you finish because of how many points you have accumulated over the season,so how can it lie? Should a team on 60pts finish above one who got 63pts,because they play better football? Exactly. Its 9 month league competition to see who can score the most points over that period playing the same number of games and playing each team home and away. Its that simple. But luck exists, and plays a part, to an even greater degree in a very low-scoring sport. That's all. Which means sometimes teams end up in a position which isn't 100% representative of how they have performed. It doesn't mean the system is unfair or wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by mickeythemaestro on Sept 27, 2024 16:22:32 GMT
Exactly. Its 9 month league competition to see who can score the most points over that period playing the same number of games and playing each team home and away. Its that simple. But luck exists, and plays a part, to an even greater degree in a very low-scoring sport. That's all. Which means sometimes teams end up in a position which isn't 100% representative of how they have performed. It doesn't mean the system is unfair or wrong. Swings and round a bouts is luck though isn't it. One has to assume it evens out over a 46 game season though surely. |
|
|
|
Post by Tom_stokiepmre89 on Sept 27, 2024 16:29:59 GMT
But luck exists, and plays a part, to an even greater degree in a very low-scoring sport. That's all. Which means sometimes teams end up in a position which isn't 100% representative of how they have performed. It doesn't mean the system is unfair or wrong. Swings and round a bouts is luck though isn't it. One has to assume it evens out over a 46 game season though surely. Intuitively we assume this, but no I don't think this is actually how it works. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacyEdit: to clarify, I don't think 46 games is anywhere near enough for this "evening out" effect to take place. In fact I'd go as far to guess that, if you could somehow rank every club's luck over their entire history (so more than a century of data on average), the difference between the top 5% luckiest and bottom 5% unluckiest would still be meaningful. |
|
|
|
Post by PotterLog on Sept 27, 2024 16:34:45 GMT
But luck exists, and plays a part, to an even greater degree in a very low-scoring sport. That's all. Which means sometimes teams end up in a position which isn't 100% representative of how they have performed. It doesn't mean the system is unfair or wrong. Swings and round a bouts is luck though isn't it. One has to assume it evens out over a 46 game season though surely. It doesn't, that's the exact point. You need a much longer period than one season for that to start happening |
|
|
|
Post by Alvechurch Assassin on Sept 27, 2024 16:43:35 GMT
I said that but Trevor says “ prove it” not sure how I can. Take a photo of it because the camera never lies. Only according to Bucks Fizz |
|
|
|
Post by mickeythemaestro on Sept 27, 2024 16:46:23 GMT
Swings and round a bouts is luck though isn't it. One has to assume it evens out over a 46 game season though surely. It doesn't, that's the exact point. You need a much longer period than one season for that to start happening I don't know I'm not a stato. I am however happy that where Stoke end up in the table every season is a fair representation of the competition they entered and the rules they agreed to play to 👍 |
|
|
|
Post by PotterLog on Sept 27, 2024 17:03:16 GMT
It doesn't, that's the exact point. You need a much longer period than one season for that to start happening I don't know I'm not a stato. I am however happy that where Stoke end up in the table every season is a fair representation of the competition they entered and the rules they agreed to play to 👍 Agreed. But that would also be true if the rules were that they had to roll a dice 46 times a season instead of play football matches 🙂 |
|
|
|
Post by mickeythemaestro on Sept 27, 2024 17:12:12 GMT
I don't know I'm not a stato. I am however happy that where Stoke end up in the table every season is a fair representation of the competition they entered and the rules they agreed to play to 👍 Agreed. But that would also be true if the rules were that they had to roll a dice 46 times a season instead of play football matches 🙂 Maybe we should make that suggestion for next season. With a bit of luck we'll finish top half finally 😆 50 50 chance surely 🤔 |
|
|
|
Post by Kingswaystokie on Sept 27, 2024 17:15:05 GMT
I think Trevor would like to see us going up a bit.
You mentioned some time ago Waggy that he prefers things up rather than down.
Does Mother still make your bovril and put it in your favourite flask ?
Are you still enjoying it in the upper tier ?
|
|
|
|
Post by PotterLog on Sept 27, 2024 17:55:40 GMT
Agreed. But that would also be true if the rules were that they had to roll a dice 46 times a season instead of play football matches 🙂 Maybe we should make that suggestion for next season. With a bit of luck we'll finish top half finally 😆 50 50 chance surely 🤔 Much more entertaining too |
|
|
|
Post by Waggy on Sept 27, 2024 19:03:47 GMT
I think Trevor would like to see us going up a bit. You mentioned some time ago Waggy that he prefers things up rather than down. Does Mother still make your bovril and put it in your favourite flask ? Are you still enjoying it in the upper tier ? Yes I love the upper tier, still the same gang - the five of us, yes still have a flask each game. Trevor and Domingo have now moved in together, just good friends though, Keith and Allan are still with us in the upper tier. Keith works for moss brothers which I can tell you is very handy and Allan is still barbering. Trevor still works as a colourist at the hairdressers and Domingo now works as a dinner man these days in the day and also goes to work at night where he will not say because it is a top government secret job apparently but he earns good money and often come home unable to walk very well so it must be tough work. |
|
|
|
Post by stayingupforbigbazza on Sept 27, 2024 23:46:55 GMT
In a word No.
As we are about to find out in next few days/weeks/months..
|
|
|
|
Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Sept 28, 2024 8:26:05 GMT
But luck exists, and plays a part, to an even greater degree in a very low-scoring sport. That's all. Which means sometimes teams end up in a position which isn't 100% representative of how they have performed. It doesn't mean the system is unfair or wrong. Swings and round a bouts is luck though isn't it. One has to assume it evens out over a 46 game season though surely. No it doesn't even out- there will be a bell curve distribution where some teams will break even, some will finish higher than their performances deserve and some teams lower. The league table only lies if you think it accurately represents performance - it doesn't and never will. It represents results and results are the basis league position, nothing more, nothing less. Luck is avfactor in where you end up. This is the xG table for the Championship 23/24 www.fotmob.com/en-GB/leagues/48/table/championship?season=2023-2024&filter=xg were a massive 10 places lower than where they should have been according to xG and Cardiff 11 places higher and should have been relegated. Leeds should have been promoted as Champions. You can argue that xG isn't a good measure but the poi t is any criteria you use will end up with variation between performance and league position. |
|
|
|
Post by thestatusquo on Sept 28, 2024 8:33:05 GMT
History remembers results not performances
|
|
|
|
Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Sept 28, 2024 8:41:59 GMT
History remembers results not performances Yes correct but that is a tautology because history is actually written in terms of league tables. Which is how it should be. |
|
|
|
Post by thisisouryear on Sept 28, 2024 9:07:05 GMT
Yes it does. It only takes injuries to the wrong players to affect where you finish over a season and no team finishes the season with the same squad of players they started with due to transfers. It will be interesting to see how Man City do without Rodri
|
|
|
|
Post by SamB_SCFC on Sept 29, 2024 9:13:01 GMT
It's lying right now. We're currently the worst team in the division.
|
|
