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Post by gawa on Nov 6, 2023 11:27:24 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67282107Don't know a great deal on this conflict but wouldn't be surprised to see some potential activity with the west distracted by Ukraine and Gaza. What's the history behind it?
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Post by prestwichpotter on Nov 6, 2023 11:33:25 GMT
Like most of these disputes it depends who you ask.
China would argue that Taiwan was originally a Chinese province dating right back to the 17th century, but the Taiwanese would argue that they were never part of the modern Chinese state that was first formed after the 1911 Revolution, or Mao's PRC.
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Post by mickeythemaestro on Nov 6, 2023 11:44:35 GMT
Bloody hell if this one kicks off too with everything else going then the whole world is in peril. We appear to be in very dark times. And the world leaders right now appear very unequipped to handle this without it kicking off all the time and lots of innocents kopping it in the cross fires. Humans aren't looking that great nowadays. Always fighting over summat. Land, religion, opinions, political views, gender and on and on. I know its a utopian thought but I would guess 90 plus % of all people surely would rather live without wanton death and destruction all over the world yet we keep on getting worse. Sad times indeed š
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Post by atillathehoneybee on Nov 6, 2023 11:46:05 GMT
This will never escalate, China have just too much to lose, maybe a bit of sabre rattling, but def not a full on invasion, why upset the applecart...
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Post by mickeythemaestro on Nov 6, 2023 11:53:55 GMT
This will never escalate, China have just too much to lose, maybe a bit of sabre rattling, but def not a full on invasion, why upset the applecart... Hopefully you're right. But its crazy how the few people who run the world seem to give less and less of a shit about those of us with no power getting blown up everywhere. Very little humanity shown by the decision makers it appears.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Nov 6, 2023 12:08:37 GMT
This will never escalate, China have just too much to lose, maybe a bit of sabre rattling, but def not a full on invasion, why upset the applecart... I agree, and in fairness whatever we think of China as a country they haven't been involved in any direct conflicts since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War which lasted for about 4 weeks. They will play the long game in my opinion, by increasing trade and tourism between the two states so that the next generation don't fear China or being part of it..............
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2023 12:12:38 GMT
I would be shocked if China attacked. They have had the power to do so for many years. Despite that, how many countries have China invaded in the last 2-3 decades? How many have the US? They do regular military drills out there. They see Taiwan as their State and believe that it will one day just fall back in line. More than anything, I believe that they will continue to coerce them back, and continue to do so below a threshold of war. Bloomberg spend an entire article discussing ways Xi may bring Taiwan to heal: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2023-11-05/xi-s-china-could-defeat-taiwan-and-us-with-these-5-strategiesAt the end they also state: āTo be clear, there is no evidence Xi has decided to escalate the confrontation with Taiwan, even though he clearly wants the ability to do so. If Beijing tries to squeeze Taiwan tighter in 2024 or after, it might just redouble its coercion short of war, through military exercises, economic warfare and other means.ā
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Post by prestwichpotter on Nov 6, 2023 12:18:16 GMT
I would be shocked if China attacked. They have had the power to do so for many years. Despite that, how many countries have China invaded in the last 2-3 decades? How many have the US? They do regular military drills out there. They see Taiwan as their State and believe that it will one day just fall back in line. More than anything, I believe that they will continue to coerce them back, and continue to do so below a threshold of war. Bloomberg spend an entire article discussing ways Xi may bring Taiwan to heal: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2023-11-05/xi-s-china-could-defeat-taiwan-and-us-with-these-5-strategiesAt the end they also state: āTo be clear, there is no evidence Xi has decided to escalate the confrontation with Taiwan, even though he clearly wants the ability to do so. If Beijing tries to squeeze Taiwan tighter in 2024 or after, it might just redouble its coercion short of war, through military exercises, economic warfare and other means.ā They're more likely to get into a conflict with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands north east of Taiwan as it's of strategic importance due to the proximity of the Okinawa American base and because of Chinese ships passing through. I'm with you I don't see an escalation with Taiwan, although listening to the Americans sometimes you'd think they actually want it to happen so they can get involved...........
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Post by mickeythemaestro on Nov 6, 2023 12:53:55 GMT
I would be shocked if China attacked. They have had the power to do so for many years. Despite that, how many countries have China invaded in the last 2-3 decades? How many have the US? They do regular military drills out there. They see Taiwan as their State and believe that it will one day just fall back in line. More than anything, I believe that they will continue to coerce them back, and continue to do so below a threshold of war. Bloomberg spend an entire article discussing ways Xi may bring Taiwan to heal: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2023-11-05/xi-s-china-could-defeat-taiwan-and-us-with-these-5-strategiesAt the end they also state: āTo be clear, there is no evidence Xi has decided to escalate the confrontation with Taiwan, even though he clearly wants the ability to do so. If Beijing tries to squeeze Taiwan tighter in 2024 or after, it might just redouble its coercion short of war, through military exercises, economic warfare and other means.ā They're more likely to get into a conflict with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands north east of Taiwan as it's of strategic importance due to the proximity of the Okinawa American base and because of Chinese ships passing through. I'm with you I don't see an escalation with Taiwan, although listening to the Americans sometimes you'd think they actually want it to happen so they can get involved........... Gotta keep Lockheed Martin in business somehow I guess š¤· š¬
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Nov 6, 2023 12:58:46 GMT
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Post by adri2008 on Nov 6, 2023 13:07:57 GMT
China will be the foremost world power sooner rather than later. A one party state (dictatorship) has the benefit of being able to plan a country over the long term rather than western democracies who always have an eye on winning the next election.
The same long term planning will be aimed at bringing Taiwan into the fold over a generation. Obviously you can't rule out China taking advantage of a distracted US though.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Nov 6, 2023 13:26:07 GMT
This will never escalate, China have just too much to lose, maybe a bit of sabre rattling, but def not a full on invasion, why upset the applecart... Agreed. Loads to lose and not loads to gain from China's perspective.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 6, 2023 16:51:03 GMT
I would be shocked if China attacked. They have had the power to do so for many years. Despite that, how many countries have China invaded in the last 2-3 decades? How many have the US? I don't think they've had the power, it's bloody hard to supply an invasion force through US subs and carrier groups. China's building up the exact weapons and kit you'd expect for this type of invasion, not sure when they'll decide they're ready. I think the results of Ukraine and US elections will help decide what happens. If the West surrenders Ukraine then Xi will see he can have Taiwan and the West will just complain a bit then let him have it. It seems likely Trump will be the next president and he wants to rip up the rough alliance of global democracies. Anything could happen.
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Post by swampmongrel on Nov 6, 2023 17:12:10 GMT
I would be shocked if China attacked. They have had the power to do so for many years. Despite that, how many countries have China invaded in the last 2-3 decades? How many have the US? I don't think they've had the power, it's bloody hard to supply an invasion force through US subs and carrier groups. China's building up the exact weapons and kit you'd expect for this type of invasion, not sure when they'll decide they're ready. I think the results of Ukraine and US elections will help decide what happens. If the West surrenders Ukraine then Xi will see he can have Taiwan and the West will just complain a bit then let him have it. It seems likely Trump will be the next president and he wants to rip up the rough alliance of global democracies. Anything could happen. I read a bit about this a while a back and the consensus view appeared to be that amphibious type landings were really hard. Notwithstanding what the West/US might do. Think D-Day ++++++ Very high risk for the PRC even with overwhelming numerical superiority. I donāt know if true.
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Post by desman2 on Nov 6, 2023 17:13:38 GMT
This will never escalate, China have just too much to lose, maybe a bit of sabre rattling, but def not a full on invasion, why upset the applecart... I agree, and in fairness whatever we think of China as a country they haven't been involved in any direct conflicts since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War which lasted for about 4 weeks. They will play the long game in my opinion, by increasing trade and tourism between the two states so that the next generation don't fear China or being part of it.............. Didnt they get a spanking in the one you mention
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Post by Veritas on Nov 6, 2023 17:19:30 GMT
I agree, and in fairness whatever we think of China as a country they haven't been involved in any direct conflicts since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War which lasted for about 4 weeks. They will play the long game in my opinion, by increasing trade and tourism between the two states so that the next generation don't fear China or being part of it.............. Didnt they get a spanking in the one you mention No not really
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Post by lordb on Nov 6, 2023 17:29:11 GMT
China will be the foremost world power sooner rather than later. A one party state (dictatorship) has the benefit of being able to plan a country over the long term rather than western democracies who always have an eye on winning the next election. The same long term planning will be aimed at bringing Taiwan into the fold over a generation. Obviously you can't rule out China taking advantage of a distracted US though. This was said 20 years ago pretty much word for word
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Post by gawa on Nov 6, 2023 17:31:21 GMT
China will be the foremost world power sooner rather than later. A one party state (dictatorship) has the benefit of being able to plan a country over the long term rather than western democracies who always have an eye on winning the next election. The same long term planning will be aimed at bringing Taiwan into the fold over a generation. Obviously you can't rule out China taking advantage of a distracted US though. I think you're right in the sense that a country with one party/leader for a prolonged period can carry out long term plans and goals much better than parties which only stay in power for short periods and are constantly trying short term stuff to stay in power. Is China a dictatorship though? Does it not have elections? (I don't know alot on Chinese politics so curious. Some say they're communist?)
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Post by vidigal7 on Nov 6, 2023 17:33:37 GMT
Bloody hell it's like the world Cup of wars, I don't know which one to tune in too.
It's only a matter of time before China make a move, what a crazy world we're living in. The bookies will be doing odds on them next
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 6, 2023 18:12:35 GMT
I read a bit about this a while a back and the consensus view appeared to be that amphibious type landings were really hard. Notwithstanding what the West/US might do. Think D-Day ++++++ Very high risk for the PRC even with overwhelming numerical superiority. I donāt know if true. Same mate, dunno exactly what's true because I don't know enough about the topic. I read into this about 5 and 10 years ago and military folk said China needed lots of specific kit, and China has been building exactly those things. E.g. They've built 220k tons of amphibious assault ships in 5 years. That's more than twice the Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary have in total, or ~3 times what the yanks built. They've also been outfitting civilian ships with ramps rated for tanks. What does the CCP plan to do with loads of amphibious assault ships? Although my understanding is that they probably still don't have the kit needed to go for it. Unless Xi is crazy or they have some secret weapon or something.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2023 18:18:29 GMT
China will be the foremost world power sooner rather than later. A one party state (dictatorship) has the benefit of being able to plan a country over the long term rather than western democracies who always have an eye on winning the next election. The same long term planning will be aimed at bringing Taiwan into the fold over a generation. Obviously you can't rule out China taking advantage of a distracted US though. I think you're right in the sense that a country with one party/leader for a prolonged period can carry out long term plans and goals much better than parties which only stay in power for short periods and are constantly trying short term stuff to stay in power. Is China a dictatorship though? Does it not have elections? (I don't know alot on Chinese politics so curious. Some say they're communist?) I wouldnāt say that they are a true dictatorship, no. They are also a state-capitalist society. Thereās a really decent breakdown of Xiās (and his predecessorās) movement away from communism here: online.ucpress.edu/currenthistory/article/120/827/207/118341/Party-State-Capitalism-in-China Largely, Xi ran on a platform of reducing local and state corruption. The members of my family I have spoken to about this seem to believe that he has been relatively successful in this. However, now heās in such a long term period of power, itās fairly inevitable that any gains made on this end may go the other way. Power corrupts.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Nov 6, 2023 19:12:37 GMT
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Post by fullmetaljacket on Nov 6, 2023 19:47:30 GMT
US sending huge amount of weapons to Taiwan.
If it kicks off they'll have a hand in it.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 7, 2023 1:05:51 GMT
Largely, Xi ran on a platform of reducing local and state corruption. The members of my family I have spoken to about this seem to believe that he has been relatively successful in this. However, now heās in such a long term period of power, itās fairly inevitable that any gains made on this end may go the other way. Power corrupts. My best mate spent 2012 (I think?) working in China and he said "every bit of business you do, you have to meet with the local Mafia and the local government, but I repeat myself". I can see why an anti-corruption brand would have sold well there.
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Post by adri2008 on Nov 7, 2023 17:23:01 GMT
China will be the foremost world power sooner rather than later. A one party state (dictatorship) has the benefit of being able to plan a country over the long term rather than western democracies who always have an eye on winning the next election. The same long term planning will be aimed at bringing Taiwan into the fold over a generation. Obviously you can't rule out China taking advantage of a distracted US though. I think you're right in the sense that a country with one party/leader for a prolonged period can carry out long term plans and goals much better than parties which only stay in power for short periods and are constantly trying short term stuff to stay in power. Is China a dictatorship though? Does it not have elections? (I don't know alot on Chinese politics so curious. Some say they're communist?) Not a dictatorship in a classic sense but there's certainly very little democracy involved. If you don't like Xi and or the CCP, nothing at all you can do about it is there? - Any sort of dissent is harshly punished and information is closely regulated to fit the official narrative.
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Post by frasier37 on Nov 8, 2023 12:11:08 GMT
I wouldn't stress too much about these two going to war....going off my Christmas's as a youngster, all weapons and machinery will be useless by the end of day one.
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Post by musik on May 26, 2024 1:48:23 GMT
Provocation by China Taiwan just said, according to Swedish late news.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 20, 2024 7:55:31 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 22:46:20 GMT
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Post by thisisouryear on Jun 21, 2024 22:53:03 GMT
It will happen likely within the next 5 years. There is a very unstable feel about the world at the moment
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