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Post by Gawa on Nov 3, 2024 13:39:09 GMT
An excellent interview on some of the history of this conflict much better explained than I could do. (Ignore the random twitter acfount posting it)
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Nov 3, 2024 18:42:51 GMT
An excellent interview on some of the history of this conflict much better explained than I could do. (Ignore the random twitter acfount posting it) john mearsheimer and stephen kotkin both did lex fridman and watching both gives quite a good balance of West/anti west perspectives. In general I think the Russian position regarding the start of the conflict and Washington carrying some responsibility does carry weight. In terms of the way the war is prosecuted and the disregard for human life, I think much more mental gymnastics are required to strong man the Russian side |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 4, 2024 4:49:48 GMT
Some examples of Ukrainians talking about Bucha and since I fucking spoke to someone who was there I find it believable. On the one hand we have russia and their puppets, who lie all the time, making vague assertions about "maybe it was a mortar". And on the other hand we have video, satellite imagery, bodies with hands tied and bullets in their heads, and witnesses.
Before the liberation, Bucha mayor: “Anatolii Fedoruk reports rapes, looting and corpses left on the street" source “The events that unfolded over the following days, Schevchenko, 43, said, were unimaginable... Russians shot dead even the elderly who got in their way, he said.” source“Halyna Tovkach, 55, is searching for the body of her husband, Oleg, 62… I felt something hit my right shoulder, a bullet. I pushed my husband to get out of the car. But he wasn’t moving...I just opened my door and ran.” - source. “Sergeiy Torovik, 53, a soldier with the territorial defence force, who lives in an area that was retaken a few days earlier. “ We found 18 bodies in there,” he said. “ They had been torturing people. Some of them had their ears cut off. Others had teeth pulled out. There were kids like 14, 16 years old, some adults.” - Source. “Hanna Herega, a Bucha resident, said she witnessed a man being killed by Russian troops.” Source. “ I heard sounds of bones being broken. The sounds of a beating...There was screaming, lots of screaming.” - Vitalii Zhyvotovskyi” - source“The Chechens ordered Abramov, Iryna and Oleh to step outside with their hands raised... The soldiers forced Oleh to kneel, Abramov said. Then they shot him in the temple...When the Russian forces retreated in late March, Oleh’s body was one of more than a dozen left behind on Yablunska Street. - same source“ They shot my son. I was next to him. It would have been better if it had been me” - source“A drone video taken before March 10 showed a person pushing a black bicycle onto Yablunska Street in Bucha before being gunned down by Russian soldiers. As the image of that hand went viral on social media this week, both Shchyruk and Subacheva immediately recognized whose it was: Filkina’s. “How could a person not recognize the body of their mother?” Shchyruk said.” Source. Natalya Vlasenko described Russian troops coming to her house “They took my husband to the second floor…they probably beat him because he responded screaming in pain…then there was silence… [later] I ran up, God, his little body was curled up, charred. He was shot in the head.” "Witness testimony and videos obtained by The New York Times show how Russian paratroopers executed at least eight Ukrainian men in a Kyiv suburb on March 4" source. And that nice russia who apparently should be allowed to kill Ukrainians until they get control? “In June 2023, Bazhutova did a live broadcast that included witness statements from Bucha residents who directly accused the Russian military of carrying out a massacre" - Russia jailed her for 5 years for reporting reality. Source. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 4, 2024 5:14:29 GMT
There's also a filmed interview with a Ukrainian defender called Ivan who was part of a group surrounded and captured in Bucha. He said he and his comrades were taken from one building to another, where he was tortured. Then he says they were lined up outside and shot. “I felt the bullet pierce my side. I fell, not moving, pretending to be dead. They walked around to finish off the wounded. That’s why I did not move.” CCTV footage shows russian soldiers leading off a group of men tied up, exactly where he described. Photos from the liberation also show corpses piled up exactly where he said they were shot. But oh no, maybe Ukrainians staged this all themselves, they are all lying, the satellites are lying, the drone videos are lying, the CCTV cameras are lying. They obviously killed themselves because America bad and we have to let russia conquer a lot of Ukraine and control the rest.  |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 4, 2024 15:06:28 GMT
Ukraine said Russia is mass launching Shahed drones to use up air defence ammo, and is saving up its cruise missiles for when the weather is bad.
They will then target power stations, heating, hospitals etc again in an attempt to freeze and kill as many innocent Ukrainians as possible.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 4, 2024 15:24:40 GMT
Nice boom.
Since October 2023 Russia has visibly lost at least 1,200 BMP-1 and BMP-2 armoured vehicles.
They don't make them any more, every single one was from the Soviet storages. They removed ~2.5k and there are fewer than 500 decent condition ones left.
They need Trump to save them before the storages run too low. They're desperate. Every pro-dictatorship, democracy hating person on Earth is rooting for Trump tomorrow.
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Nov 4, 2024 15:50:03 GMT
Nice boom. Since October 2023 Russia has visibly lost at least 1,200 BMP-1 and BMP-2 armoured vehicles. They don't make them any more, every single one was from the Soviet storages. They removed ~2.5k and there are fewer than 500 decent condition ones left. They need Trump to save them before the storages run too low. They're desperate. Every pro-dictatorship, democracy hating person on Earth is rooting for Trump tomorrow. The last part is untrue. If we listed the main 'enemies' of the West below and stated who they would prefer to win the election, how would it honestly look? Russia: Trump China: Harris Iran: Harris North Korea: no idea? So you can have that one for Trump if you want! Biden Harris projected nothing but weakness and inconsistency. Trump is also inconsistent but the world was much safer when he was in the white house sending mean tweets than it is now. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 4, 2024 17:15:33 GMT
Biden Harris projected nothing but weakness and inconsistency. Trump is also inconsistent but the world was much safer when he was in the white house sending mean tweets than it is now. That's a fair point that national interest can override things. But overall IMO it's obvious that the dictators would prefer Trump and the death of US democracy. Trump was lucky wasn't he? It's like saying Churchill sucked because things were better in Chamberlain's first couple of years. The russian army hadn't completed its reforms so wasn't ready to go. China didn't have the fleet to attack Taiwan. Hamas' attack in October 2023 had nothing to do with who the president was. COVID froze everything for a year. As for China I'm not sure who they'd prefer, an incompetent loudmouth who would tear apart the western alliance and says he'll throw away the US' major trade advantages, or a competent but overly dove-ish team. I think Biden-Harris' approach of investing in US industry to remove dependency on China. Trump did nothing on that, factory building soared 100%+ after the IRA and science&CHIPS act. |
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Nov 4, 2024 19:47:43 GMT
Biden Harris projected nothing but weakness and inconsistency. Trump is also inconsistent but the world was much safer when he was in the white house sending mean tweets than it is now. That's a fair point that national interest can override things. But overall IMO it's obvious that the dictators would prefer Trump and the death of US democracy. Trump was lucky wasn't he? It's like saying Churchill sucked because things were better in Chamberlain's first couple of years. The russian army hadn't completed its reforms so wasn't ready to go. China didn't have the fleet to attack Taiwan. Hamas' attack in October 2023 had nothing to do with who the president was. COVID froze everything for a year. As for China I'm not sure who they'd prefer, an incompetent loudmouth who would tear apart the western alliance and says he'll throw away the US' major trade advantages, or a competent but overly dove-ish team. I think Biden-Harris' approach of investing in US industry to remove dependency on China. Trump did nothing on that, factory building soared 100%+ after the IRA and science&CHIPS act. You can attribute it to luck but peace for 4 years seems to me at least slightly more than that. Abraham accords weren't an achievement? Can you really say the current administration has done well on foreign policy? Afghanistan? Where did Iran get the money for October 7? It was policy choice to distance themselves from the Saudis and Israel and go soft on Iran. Maybe the Taliban were always going to get Afghanistan eventually and Russia would always invade Ukraine and hamas would always have managed something like October 7. That's an awful lot of bad luck compared to an awful lot of good luck under Trump though, isn't it? |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 5, 2024 15:32:16 GMT
Russian drone sees what looks like civilians. Calls in artillery to try and kill them.
This is a village on the other side of the Dnipro river that Russian soldiers can't reach. It's not a combat zone.
Russia is hunting Ukrainian civilians every day.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 5, 2024 19:22:32 GMT
As well as tank storage there are also ammo dumps all across Russia. Almost all of them have been visibly emptied.
They need trump to save them because they can't keep shooting shells and losing vehicles at this rate. They need Ukraine disarmed so it's easier to kill Ukrainians.
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Post by Veritas on Nov 6, 2024 10:05:18 GMT
As well as tank storage there are also ammo dumps all across Russia. Almost all of them have been visibly emptied. They need trump to save them because they can't keep shooting shells and losing vehicles at this rate. They need Ukraine disarmed so it's easier to kill Ukrainians. Coming soon 😥 |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Nov 6, 2024 10:14:39 GMT
As well as tank storage there are also ammo dumps all across Russia. Almost all of them have been visibly emptied. They need trump to save them because they can't keep shooting shells and losing vehicles at this rate. They need Ukraine disarmed so it's easier to kill Ukrainians. Coming soon 😥 This is where Europe has to grow some balls. Pandering to Putin like we have done has achieved nothing. The only hope is that this galvanises Europe. But I can’t see that, the Germans already want to pander to the cunt again. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 7, 2024 16:50:40 GMT
Ukrainian combat engineer says Russian started it's Kursk liberation attempt yesterday and he thinks the russian plan is to succeed in 2-3 months.
> today (russians) launched an attack at the left flank... Using a bad weather conditions (fog and wind) they attacked with the help of AFV. [Armoured Fighting Vehicles]
> 810 marine brigade used today at least 14 BTR-82A. 10 of them are destroyed or damaged and abandoned.
> 83 VDV brigade used a couple of BMP-3 and T-80BVM. Tank was destroyed and one BMP-3 is damaged and abandoned.
> 51 regiment used 7 buggies, 5 BMP-3 and 2 BMD-2. All the buggies stayed at the field, 2 BMD-2 and one BMP-3 were destroyed. Other 4 BMP-3 are damaged and abandoned. We will try to finish them.
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Post by wagsastokie on Nov 7, 2024 16:55:15 GMT
This is where Europe has to grow some balls. Pandering to Putin like we have done has achieved nothing. The only hope is that this galvanises Europe. But I can’t see that, the Germans already want to pander to the cunt again. The German government will be lucky if they last long enough to enjoy there Christmas gingerbread |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 7, 2024 17:29:57 GMT
Ukrainian combat engineer says Russian started it's Kursk liberation attempt yesterday and he thinks the russian plan is to succeed in 2-3 months. Only two russian factories seemingly make brand new IFVs: Kurganmashzavod (BMP-3/BMD-4) and Arzamas Machine Plant (BTR-82A). Think fewer than 80/month. So... Russia lost 6 days of the entire country's new IFV production in a single day in Kursk. They have about 500 BMP-1/2 left stored in decent condition and losing ~100/month. It takes time to repair and ship so I think Russia has a year or shorter left of using BMPs at the current rate. I think they'll slow down at some point to save them. Maybe use more MT-LBs, golf carts and motorbikes. |
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Post by musik on Nov 7, 2024 17:36:11 GMT
100 more millions (in SEK=£8M) from Sweden to Ukraine. They said this a week ago, I forgot.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 8, 2024 19:23:14 GMT
Russian terror attacks continue every day, hitting civilian buildings. One day it's Odesa and Kharkiv, the next it's Kryvy Rih, then Kyiv, then back to Odesa...
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Post by salopstick on Nov 9, 2024 19:43:21 GMT
mtrstudent as probably one of the most itk what do you make of reports of Ukraine having to giving up crimea in order to achieve d as n end to the war. Ukraine won’t want that so is that dead in the water.
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Post by musik on Nov 10, 2024 2:06:10 GMT
Russia also want to keep the land they have occupied.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 10, 2024 21:37:31 GMT
mtrstudent as probably one of the most itk what do you make of reports of Ukraine having to giving up crimea in order to achieve d as n end to the war. Ukraine won’t want that so is that dead in the water. I suck at understanding diplomacy because so much goes on behind the scenes. My guess is it depends on how bad Ukrainian casualties are so far. If they can still fight they will refuse the republicans' plan for Putin's victory. I think of each side's goals: 1. Putin wants to conquer most or all of Ukraine and control the rest as a puppet state, so he can use Ukrainians as meat in his next invasion. 2. Ukraine wants to be free and safe. Ukrainains aren't fucking idiots, they know Trump and Putin are liars who will betray them and if Ukraine cedes any land without massive new weapons shipments, then russia will just attack later. The only way Ukraine can accept the surrender proposals that Trump seems to be pushing is if they are so bloodied that their will is broken. Try to imagine if we were in Ukraine's situation. Invaders occupying part of Britain and if you surrender then our defences would be surrendered and our army gutted, guaranteeing the next war with us in a far worse position. And while waiting for the inevitable invasion you know millions of innocent Brits are under the jackboot. Many will be tortured or murdered. Many more will be force conscripted and used to invade us in a few years. You can probably imagine how hard you'd fight to avoid that, and if forced to surrender you wouldn't be surprised if millions of Brits tried to flee as refugees either.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 10, 2024 21:38:23 GMT
Russia also want to keep the land they have occupied. They also demand that Ukraine abandons all of its defensive positions and hand over major cities. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 0:20:53 GMT
Ukraine is still desperately stretched and Russia still has remaining forces to go hard. The pink shaded bits are what Russia has conquered in 2 weeks, it's about the fastest they've gained territory since 2022.
They've been taking ~1500 casualties per day according to UK MoD and other evidence. What happens next depends an enormous amount on how high the Ukrainian casualties have been. If it's 300/day or fewer then Russia is gonna be looking stupid this time next year unless they get other major aid from allies.
If it's 1k/day then we're in disaster territory.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 0:25:12 GMT
In the post above I said Russia is moving faster recently... They'd still need to go much faster to reach their goals by 2030.
At this speed they'd be ready to attack Pokrovsk in January. It's seven months since they reached Chasiv Yar and began the assault and it still stands... Pokrovsk is bigger. And after that there are other fortress towns.
And finally Kramatorsk-Slovyansk, which is bigger than anything Russia managed to conquer since July 2022.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 5:08:22 GMT
Funky Camo.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 5:10:25 GMT
Lots of russians talk about and film punishments of their own soldiers. That includes how they treat the 100,00+ Ukrainians they force mobilised.
Throwing them in pits is normal. I've also seen them execute fleeing soldiers, hit them with hammers or chain them to trees or posts.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 11, 2024 5:12:14 GMT
Russians posted another video of them executing a defenceless Ukrainian prisoner.
It happens all the time.
But we're probably supposed to believe that it's all faked or something because Russia should control Ukraine since America bad.
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Post by salopstick on Nov 11, 2024 9:31:26 GMT
mtrstudent as probably one of the most itk what do you make of reports of Ukraine having to giving up crimea in order to achieve d as n end to the war. Ukraine won’t want that so is that dead in the water. I suck at understanding diplomacy because so much goes on behind the scenes. My guess is it depends on how bad Ukrainian casualties are so far. If they can still fight they will refuse the republicans' plan for Putin's victory. I think of each side's goals: 1. Putin wants to conquer most or all of Ukraine and control the rest as a puppet state, so he can use Ukrainians as meat in his next invasion. 2. Ukraine wants to be free and safe. Ukrainains aren't fucking idiots, they know Trump and Putin are liars who will betray them and if Ukraine cedes any land without massive new weapons shipments, then russia will just attack later. The only way Ukraine can accept the surrender proposals that Trump seems to be pushing is if they are so bloodied that their will is broken. Try to imagine if we were in Ukraine's situation. Invaders occupying part of Britain and if you surrender then our defences would be surrendered and our army gutted, guaranteeing the next war with us in a far worse position. And while waiting for the inevitable invasion you know millions of innocent Brits are under the jackboot. Many will be tortured or murdered. Many more will be force conscripted and used to invade us in a few years. You can probably imagine how hard you'd fight to avoid that, and if forced to surrender you wouldn't be surprised if millions of Brits tried to flee as refugees either.
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it |
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Post by adri2008 on Nov 11, 2024 10:39:00 GMT
I suck at understanding diplomacy because so much goes on behind the scenes. My guess is it depends on how bad Ukrainian casualties are so far. If they can still fight they will refuse the republicans' plan for Putin's victory. I think of each side's goals: 1. Putin wants to conquer most or all of Ukraine and control the rest as a puppet state, so he can use Ukrainians as meat in his next invasion. 2. Ukraine wants to be free and safe. Ukrainains aren't fucking idiots, they know Trump and Putin are liars who will betray them and if Ukraine cedes any land without massive new weapons shipments, then russia will just attack later. The only way Ukraine can accept the surrender proposals that Trump seems to be pushing is if they are so bloodied that their will is broken. Try to imagine if we were in Ukraine's situation. Invaders occupying part of Britain and if you surrender then our defences would be surrendered and our army gutted, guaranteeing the next war with us in a far worse position. And while waiting for the inevitable invasion you know millions of innocent Brits are under the jackboot. Many will be tortured or murdered. Many more will be force conscripted and used to invade us in a few years. You can probably imagine how hard you'd fight to avoid that, and if forced to surrender you wouldn't be surprised if millions of Brits tried to flee as refugees either.
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it I think you have to look at things through Trump's egotistical brain. I highly doubt he'll just chuck Ukraine to the wolves as it'd look bad on him. He'll want to be seen a bringing the war to a close on reasonable terms. On the other hand, I don't see how Ukraine can realistically reclaim it's territory now - it might well have the numbers to defend and inflict heavy casualties on advancing Russians but taking on heavily defended positions? - I don't think it'll have the necessary numerical advantage for an offensive at this stage unless it's somehow kept a lot in reserve. |
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Post by thisisouryear on Nov 11, 2024 12:49:20 GMT
personally i believe trump just wants an end to the war (its irrelevant to me of his personal reason $$$) i do not believe NATO, EU, or the USA would abandon Ukraine i believe because the war wasnt won by Russia putin now needs a "not losing face" out I think the only two things that would satisfy putin is 1. no ukraine in nato - easy as NATO would still be there to support 2. keep crimea Crimea has a long and complex history and russia may believe they have a right to keep it I think you have to look at things through Trump's egotistical brain. I highly doubt he'll just chuck Ukraine to the wolves as it'd look bad on him. He'll want to be seen a bringing the war to a close on reasonable terms. On the other hand, I don't see how Ukraine can realistically reclaim it's territory now - it might well have the numbers to defend and inflict heavy casualties on advancing Russians but taking on heavily defended positions? - I don't think it'll have the necessary numerical advantage for an offensive at this stage unless it's somehow kept a lot in reserve. All Trump wants to do is pause the war. Russia would keep the land, train more soldiers, build more weapons and then go again. Kicking the can down the road won't make it go away. Putin wants all of Ukraine and if he has to take it piece by piece I'm sure he would take that. |
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