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Post by mtrstudent on May 1, 2022 15:46:50 GMT
I wonder what Putin’s end game is now. Secure Donbas? Create a land route across Southern Ukraine to form a land bridge to Transnistria? A regime change for the whole of Ukraine? Whatever happens, he has made Russia a pariah state that will be unable to conduct business or affairs freely on the world stage. The Chinese will undoubtedly do business with Russia but on terms highly preferential to them. Consequently Russia’s economy will plummet which combined with their isolation will mean their military capability will depreciate massively compared to the West both in capacity and capability. Who knows what the nutter will aim for. I think a puppet Kyiv regime is out of the question now though. If they can encircle and capture the main Ukrainian army group east then you'd think he'll expect Crimea+Donbas as the minimum. If Ukraine can win then maybe long term he could be driven to accept Crimea+no NATO+Ukrainian law changes?
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Post by mtrstudent on May 1, 2022 19:50:24 GMT
Various claims that Germany now aims to be off Russian coal & oil this year. Down to 10% gas by 2024.
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Post by mrcoke on May 2, 2022 20:56:05 GMT
Germany has done brilliantly to reduce consumption.
There's a gas pipeline under the Baltic going cheap! Maybe a second one in a few years.
Russia have totally screwed up their country, hope they don't decide to take us down with them.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 3, 2022 16:10:45 GMT
Twitter thread by retired US Army logistics guy. Photos show a grad rocket launcher truck with tires that could be 30 years old, they burst. Is this normal for the Russians? They could be running out of new tires, so their vehicles just get randomly stuck. They have factories obviously but resources spent on replacing shitty tires can't also be used for other things, so that'd be good!
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Post by mrcoke on May 3, 2022 16:51:56 GMT
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 3, 2022 17:16:59 GMT
This has been brewing for a while and makes me think that the Germans have had it good for so long that they've lost their spines.
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Post by richie22 on May 3, 2022 18:12:34 GMT
Whilst navigating the gridlock of Antwerp this morning I met some lads driving a dbl deck coach/ambulance from Manchester to Lviv, thanks to the roads being as bad as stokes, we had a good chat ( they even handed me a Ukraine flag) amongst all this shit storm there’s some fantastic people out there doing some fantastic things for the effort. They commented that they nearly twatted a car at the bet365 last night moving over from the heron cross feed lane, they were in Antwerp just after 8am (uk) . They had been at it all night and were aiming to be at the polish -Ukraine border tomorow .
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 4, 2022 14:59:55 GMT
John R Bruning is back with another briefing after a few days off. Warning, contains disturbing content.
Mid-Week Ukraine Update:
1. The Russian offensive grinds on with extremely limited gains and high casualties. The Russians are showing slightly better cooperation between battalion task groups, but still no true cohesion to their operations. Morale in the Russian army is very low. Getting units to attack has become more difficult, forcing senior officers to be present near the front lines.
2. There are increasing reports of disorder in the ranks of the Russian battalion task groups. If Ukrainian radio & cell phone intercepts of Russian communications are to be trusted, some very disturbing things have happened. Among them: a.) A senior Russian officer complaining bitterly that his men will not advance unless he threatens to have them shot.
b.) Russian soldiers telling their families that they are going to wound themselves (Self-Inflicted Wounds SIW) in order to get home.
c.) One Russian BTR armored car crew got into such a ferocious argument inside their vehicle that one of them detonated a grenade, killing everyone.
d.) One Russian soldier called home to his mother and started discussing raping people and the torture and murder of prisoners who remained defiant even as he and his comrades severed their fingers, toes and penises. His mother kept calling the Ukrainians subhumans and fully supported the things he mentioned, including shoving barbed wire into POW's anuses.
e.) The NY Post reported a conversation between another Russian soldier and his wife that was another shocker. The soldier's wife gave him permission to rape Ukrainian women, provided he wore condoms.
These sorts of anecdotal stories need to be treated carefully. But collectively, if true, they paint a picture of an army with such poor discipline and such depraved behavior that it lacks the capacity to win, while at the same time generating massive moral and physical resistance on the part of the Ukrainian population.
2. The Sievierodonetsk Pocket:
The Russians have deployed 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izium area, pushing down southward toward Barvinkove and Slovyansk in hopes of linking up with forces fighting north from Popasna and cutting off the Ukrainian forces in the pocket. In recent days, the Russians in the Izium area have captured about 20 kilometers of territory. They have lost thousands of troops, killed and wounded to take it.
In the first week and a half of this Easter Offensive, the Russians lost enough tanks and armored personnel carriers to equip 11 BTG's. There are reports of small Russian units being counter-attacked, cut off and virtually destroyed. In one case, an understrength mech company found themselves surrounded. Their senior officer stayed behind to give his men chance to break out. Nineteen got back to Russian lines along with only one of their BMPs.
There has been no breakthrough achieved anywhere in the fighting around the pocket. There are an estimated 60 Russian BTG's from Izium around to Sievierodonetsk and back around southwest to Popasna. Remember 125 or so went into Ukraine in the initial offensive, so this reflects an enormous commitment of combat power by the Russians.
The Ukrainians actually have more battalions in the line and in reserve here, counting their reservists/territorials. It is quite possible the Ukrainian defenders outnumber the Russian attackers.
The Russians continue to grind on in what one military affairs specialist called French WWI style tactics. Each attack begins with a massive artillery bombardment, then a ponderously slow advance by ground troops. The coordination and combined arms capabilities of the Russian army is generally poor and getting worse as the losses mount, so the attacks are unable to rip a decisive hole in the Ukrainian defenses. Those defenses, by the way, are a mixture of very well-prepared fortified positions and mobile forces fighting delaying actions.
As a result of this development, artillery is becoming increasingly important to the balance of power around the Pocket. The US, Canada, Australia and other Western nations are now supplying long-range artillery to the Ukrainians. Ukrainian artillery units are training on them outside Ukraine as well.
We have also given them MLRS multiple rocket artillery tracks whose firepower and range is practically unrivaled on this battlefield. Not sure if the Ukrainians used a US-delivered MLRS or one of their own systems, but last week they discovered the Russian Army's chief-of-staff was going to be in the Izium area for a meeting with senior level officers. The Ukrainians smothered the meeting area with an MLRS barrage. Reports are very sketchy and should be taken with a grain of salt, but some state the chief of staff took a shrapnel wound to the lower leg, while another general was killed. Others say the chief of staff left the area just before the rockets impacted. There were casualties among the senior officers--reportedly almost two dozen--along with Russian special forces troops who were providing security. Ukrainians claimed the attack inflicted about 200 casualties.
3. The Russians have assaulted the steel works in Mariupol and have fought their way into the complex. About a hundred civilians escaped the area earlier this week. It is not clear if the Russians have been able to secure a foothold in the nuclear bunker system under the steel works or if the fighting has been entirely above ground so far.
4. One unconfirmed report: Eleven Ukrainian fighter pilots are training on F-16s in Eastern Europe.
5. Airframes and spare parts have been supplied by the West to the Ukrainians. Some reports are suggesting that some of these came out of Iraq, where the US captured them during the Global War on Terror.
6. Brits are now supplying Ukraine with Brimstone precision guided missiles. These are akin to US Hellfire anti-tank missiles, but with greater flexibility. They can be air launched or ground launched, and are designed for use against mass formations of armor. They are guided both by laser designators and by radar. There are reports that they can be used against ships.
7. Turning to the Black Sea, several developments:
a. Russia has pulled a number of its amphibious warfare landing ships out of Sevastopol and rebased them in the Eastern Black Sea.
b. Ukrainian drones sank two Russian Raptor patrol boats this week with missile strikes.
c. The Brits and Norwegians are sending long-range, surface launched anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. These systems have the capability of hitting Russian ships anywhere in the Western Black Sea, including in port at Sevastopol, which is possibly the reason the landing ships moved east.
This is actually an humanitarian effort. By denying the Western Black Sea to Russian ships, and using SU-27 fighter-bombers in conjunction with NATO AWACs airborne radar aircraft to deny the airspace to Russian strategic bombers, the Ukrainians can reopen the port of Odesa and start shipping wheat by towed barges to Romania. There the wheat can be transferred to NATO-flagged ships and sent south to North Africa and the Middle East.
This is literally going to help mitigate the growing catastrophe of food shortages already hammering Egypt, Lebanon and other African & Middle Eastern nations. Ukrainian wheat is vital to the world's ability to eat, and getting that pipeline flowing again will forestall countless deaths by starvation later this year in the regions most dependent on Ukrainian imports.
8. Wheat: a.) Russians have been targeting wheat warehouses with bombs and missiles. b.) The Ukrainian wheat stocks they've captured in the areas they now control are being removed to Russia, signaling that the Russians intend to starve the Ukrainians in the occupied zones as they did in the 1930s. c.) Russian state tv ran a show where its talking heads discussed how great it would be to steal Ukrainian wheat and send it to the Chinese. They did this about the same time they ran video simulations on state TV of nuclear attacks on the UK and their talking heads discussed how quickly different nuclear missile and torpedo systems could destroy London.
9. Putin: At least two sources, the Sun in the UK and the NY Post here in the States, have reported Putin needs cancer surgery and will turn power over to one of his hard line FSB cronies who is all-in on the Ukrainian effort and very anti-west. I have no idea if this is true.
Last night, a small UK media outlet reported that the Kremlin is on high alert as coup rumors are spreading through Moscow. This source reported the conspirators are a combination of FSB officers and military generals. See the full story here:
10. Russian losses now are estimated at 24,500 killed in action. This would be mean they've lost about 6,000 troops since the Easter Offensive began. Figure on three wounded for every killed, and the picture is very grim for the Russians--almost 75,000 combat losses in a force that originally totaled between 180-200k. British reports suggest the Russian army has lost 25% of its combat power in 69 days of battle.
An indicator on how desperate their supply situation is: An abandoned Grad rocket launcher was captured and photographed by Ukrainains. The tires were in a deplorable state--half rotted out and several had blown. Embossed on the tire walls were the words, "Made in the USSR." These were tires manufactured for export, mainly to India, back in the 80s and early 90s. It is possible the factory that made them did not retool for years after the collapse, but even assuming they kept producing them for 10 years, that would make the tires at least 20 years old.
11. Attacks inside Russia continue. Oil targets, bridges, rail lines, and missile production facilities have all been hit in the last week. There was also an unexplained fire at a Russian airbase in the Far East. No word on if that was unrelated to the ongoing sabotage effort.
12. Belarus announced military maneuvers and training exercises are going to commence soon.
13. NATO is deploying a rapid response task force to Romania.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 4, 2022 16:39:50 GMT
1: Twitterers and Redditors who claim to be Russian and Ukrainian (I checked a few accounts, seem legit) said that the phone calls claiming to be Russian soldiers reporting horrendous shite had proper Russian accents. Apparently Russian-speaking-Ukrainians have different accents. A bit like how we could pick out a southerner or a Scot. This was just some of the phone calls.
2: US and Ukrainian sources now say the big shot general left shortly before the rocket attack, so the leg injury claims are probably bullshit. But they did get another general in that attack and the ISW (experts) reckon that's really slowed down the Izyum side of things.
10: the 25,400 dead are claimed by Ukraine. I'm gonna call bullshit on that, it's just not credible that Russia's contract army has lost 25k dead and 50k wounded. Maybe it's around that if you include all the conscripts, Rosgvardia (Putin's private military), press-ganged Ukrainian cannon fodder from Luhanks/Donetsk etc.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 4, 2022 17:10:13 GMT
1: Twitterers and Redditors who claim to be Russian and Ukrainian (I checked a few accounts, seem legit) said that the phone calls claiming to be Russian soldiers reporting horrendous shite had proper Russian accents. Apparently Russian-speaking-Ukrainians have different accents. A bit like how we could pick out a southerner or a Scot. This was just some of the phone calls. 2: US and Ukrainian sources now say the big shot general left shortly before the rocket attack, so the leg injury claims are probably bullshit. But they did get another general in that attack and the ISW (experts) reckon that's really slowed down the Izyum side of things. 10: the 25,400 dead are claimed by Ukraine. I'm gonna call bullshit on that, it's just not credible that Russia's contract army has lost 25k dead and 50k wounded. Maybe it's around that if you include all the conscripts, Rosgvardia (Putin's private military), press-ganged Ukrainian cannon fodder from Luhanks/Donetsk etc. I would have thought that army conscripts would be counted, or put it another way, I do not know why they would not, if they are in uniform and dead, they're going to get counted. How accurate the count is, I have no idea, but i's certainly likely that Ukraine exaggerate their kills and downplay their losses.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 4, 2022 17:29:48 GMT
1: Twitterers and Redditors who claim to be Russian and Ukrainian (I checked a few accounts, seem legit) said that the phone calls claiming to be Russian soldiers reporting horrendous shite had proper Russian accents. Apparently Russian-speaking-Ukrainians have different accents. A bit like how we could pick out a southerner or a Scot. This was just some of the phone calls. 2: US and Ukrainian sources now say the big shot general left shortly before the rocket attack, so the leg injury claims are probably bullshit. But they did get another general in that attack and the ISW (experts) reckon that's really slowed down the Izyum side of things. 10: the 25,400 dead are claimed by Ukraine. I'm gonna call bullshit on that, it's just not credible that Russia's contract army has lost 25k dead and 50k wounded. Maybe it's around that if you include all the conscripts, Rosgvardia (Putin's private military), press-ganged Ukrainian cannon fodder from Luhanks/Donetsk etc. I would have thought that army conscripts would be counted, or put it another way, I do not know why they would not, if they are in uniform and dead, they're going to get counted. How accurate the count is, I have no idea, but i's certainly likely that Ukraine exaggerate their kills and downplay their losses. Came on a bit strong in just calling "bullshit", I think we agree that the numbers are probably inflated (so a bit bullshitty) but I've seen some people saying stuff like "170k at start, 75k killed or wounded, so Russia only has 95k left" which can't be right. The Ukrainian source doesn't do a split and doesn't claim it's all professional so I was a bit aggressive! I'd like to know how many are professional Russian soldiers. If it's mostly conscripts/Rosgvardia/Ukrainian cannon fodder going down then Russia would be in a way better position. Allegedly it's illegal for conscripts to serve outside Russia, and if Putin had to withdraw a bunch of them then that would mean the casualties are going heavier on actual soldiers instead of conscripts. And that would be good.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 4, 2022 17:36:40 GMT
Can any of our military nerds confirm this? Claimed to be first proof of one of Russia's most modern active combat tank lost, a T-90M.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on May 4, 2022 18:55:49 GMT
If the Russians have a “victory” parade in Mariupol then surely it’s within the Ukrainian capabilities to rain missiles down on them and do untold damage?
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Post by mtrstudent on May 4, 2022 20:15:13 GMT
If the Russians have a “victory” parade in Mariupol then surely it’s within the Ukrainian capabilities to rain missiles down on them and do untold damage? There are still civvies there so they'd want precision munitions. My bet is they won't risk it but it would be impressive if they could sneak some drones close enough to mess up the parade.
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Post by lawrieleslie on May 5, 2022 6:31:07 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on May 5, 2022 15:16:29 GMT
We'll have to wait and see if this is bullshit/propaganda, but I follow updates from a lad who lives in Kharkiv and it sounds like all the videos and intel reports that the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back around there are true. Here are two of his reports: (two weeks ago) "Day 56 of my updates from Kharkiv. There was a big pause in shelling from around 5-6 pm yesterday and to 3-4 pm today, but then it started again" (today) "Day 70 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today there was just a single confirmed shelling" If the Ukrainians can get into artillery range of the supply lines to Izyum then the single largest Russian attack is in trouble. EDIT: big map showing changes. Dashed lines are estimated fronts two weeks ago, shading is estimated control today.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 6, 2022 11:25:43 GMT
The Ukrainians are saying they’ve sunk this ship:
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 6, 2022 11:28:53 GMT
1: Twitterers and Redditors who claim to be Russian and Ukrainian (I checked a few accounts, seem legit) said that the phone calls claiming to be Russian soldiers reporting horrendous shite had proper Russian accents. Apparently Russian-speaking-Ukrainians have different accents. A bit like how we could pick out a southerner or a Scot. This was just some of the phone calls. 2: US and Ukrainian sources now say the big shot general left shortly before the rocket attack, so the leg injury claims are probably bullshit. But they did get another general in that attack and the ISW (experts) reckon that's really slowed down the Izyum side of things. 10: the 25,400 dead are claimed by Ukraine. I'm gonna call bullshit on that, it's just not credible that Russia's contract army has lost 25k dead and 50k wounded. Maybe it's around that if you include all the conscripts, Rosgvardia (Putin's private military), press-ganged Ukrainian cannon fodder from Luhanks/Donetsk etc. Re the number dead. The usual calculation is you double the dead for the number of wounded but I read something interesting that Russia basically has zero in field medi care and if you get a bad wound you’re basically dead. I don’t think it’s that high either I reckon it’s somewhere between the 15 and 25000 numbers claimed by the west and Ukraine.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 6, 2022 14:16:53 GMT
The Ukrainians are saying they’ve sunk this ship: There is a crappy video claiming to be drone footage of the Admiral Makarov on fire. The ship looks similar but it could be a videogame so I don't count it yet. Intel fans are saying ~7 military aircraft diverted normal flights to head to the alleged location and turned their trackers off though. I'm leaning "nah" because there were 2-3 other times the internet said ships had been hit but it was rubbish. It'd be good if I'm wrong and we see confirmation of a new "accident" on her soon.
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Post by Northy on May 6, 2022 14:59:21 GMT
The Ukrainians are saying they’ve sunk this ship: There is a crappy video claiming to be drone footage of the Admiral Makarov on fire. The ship looks similar but it could be a videogame so I don't count it yet. Intel fans are saying ~7 military aircraft diverted normal flights to head to the alleged location and turned their trackers off though. I'm leaning "nah" because there were 2-3 other times the internet said ships had been hit but it was rubbish. It'd be good if I'm wrong and we see confirmation of a new "accident" on her soon. Yanks are seeing other ships rushing to the area where it was
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Post by mtrstudent on May 6, 2022 15:24:13 GMT
There is a crappy video claiming to be drone footage of the Admiral Makarov on fire. The ship looks similar but it could be a videogame so I don't count it yet. Intel fans are saying ~7 military aircraft diverted normal flights to head to the alleged location and turned their trackers off though. I'm leaning "nah" because there were 2-3 other times the internet said ships had been hit but it was rubbish. It'd be good if I'm wrong and we see confirmation of a new "accident" on her soon. Yanks are seeing other ships rushing to the area where it was That was the giveaway for the Moskva IMO. So far only seeing claims that rescue ships are on the way but no links to actual sources. You have anything?
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Post by questionable on May 6, 2022 15:55:39 GMT
Yanks are seeing other ships rushing to the area where it was That was the giveaway for the Moskva IMO. So far only seeing claims that rescue ships are on the way but no links to actual sources. You have anything? All over the tabloids now stating credible reports, video also on YouTube. Getting a bit of their own now as they’ve been pinging missiles into Ukrainian for some time apparently
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 6, 2022 16:24:37 GMT
John R Bruning Briefing.
Short Ukraine Update:
The Art of Assassination by Artillery.
So we know that the Russians have been losing a lot of senior officers in combat. There are 10+ generals who have been killed, most by artillery bombardment. Somewhere north of 40 colonels have been killed as well.
Up until recently, these attacks have been carried out by the Ukrainians with their existing artillery systems, which are largely Russian guns.
This is changing. The US and its Western partners have been sending heavy artillery systems into Ukraine. The battle in the Donbas has turned into an artillery duel, so this is additional weaponry will be vital to Ukrainian defense. Additionally, as Pete Salerno has mentioned, the counter-battery radar systems we're sending are also crucial. These allow the Ukrainians to pinpoint Russian artillery batteries and smother them with high explosive shells.
Interesting development: The 155mm we've been sending is a heavy system with a range with standard ammo of about 24 kilometers. The accuracy of each shell is about 50% within 150 feet of the target point, meaning half the shells will fall inside a 150 feet radius of where the arty crews aimed. Since the shells throw out thousands of metal fragments, known as shrapnel, the lethal area each detonation creates is larger than the 150 feet radius of accuracy. So, these weapons are used against troop concentrations and are designed to saturate an area with explosions and flying chunks of metal. It is incredibly destructive and the largest casualty-producer on a modern conventional battlefield.
However, the US has an artillery ammunition system for these 155mm guns called the Excalibur. This is a much longer ranged shell--up to 57 kilometers--and it is accurate to 16 feet of the target point.
Now, there is no word that we are delivering these shells along with the 155s we're sending. However, when you marry up this level of accuracy to the real time battlefield intelligence the US is providing the Ukrainians, you create a sledgehammer that can squash a sewing needle.
What do you need that accuracy for? Command and control strikes. It could very well be that the United States is assisting Ukraine with both information and weapons that can decapitate Russian battlefield leadership with precision artillery assassinations.
The process: US Intel detects the presence of a senior leader within artillery range of Ukrainian guns. They pass that information to the Ukrainians with grid coordinates, and the artillerists smother that location with high explosives.
If this really is an intent of our aid, I think we'll start to see an acceleration of Russian senior officer casualties in the coming weeks as these artillery systems come on line.
American officials have been remarkably candid about the intelligence we have on the Russian leadership. It is clear that we were deeply inside the Kremlin somehow before the war, as we basically went public with the Russian warplan weeks before they actually undertook it. Since then, we've seen leaks about "secret" Kremlin meetings between Putin and his inner circle, the fact that a USN P-8 surveillance aircraft helped with the attack and sinking of the Moskva, and yesterday the NY Times article on how we are assisting in the Ukrainain de-generalizing of the Russian officer corps.
Exactly why we've been so public with all this really comes down to either a political gambit, or very very very very very bad OPSEC with US officials wanting to take credit for stuff that needs to be kept quiet. My guess is the former. We leak this stuff to the press, and the Russians will know we're reading their mail, listening to their phone calls, watching them via satellite, working with a system of moles and informants. This may be part of the reason Putin has initiated a 1930s level purge of his intelligence service and military.
So, the leaks and the public comments about all this may be designed to keep the Russians paranoid and chasing their tail, eating their own and sewing distrust, uncertainty and fear in their own ranks.
General Vlasov! I need you to visit the troops at Izium!
Yeah, no thanks. Not really gonna want to get smothered by HE 155 shells.
The flip side is this: If we knew our leadership was being actively targeted on a battlefield by a foreign power, how would we react? Helping to sink a capital ship? That feels dangerously close to an act of war. So, if this is really the game the U.S. is playing, it is truly guts-ball and running us along a razor's edge. Hopefully, we have intel that tells us where the Russians think the line is, and we will not cross it.
Still. Very dangerous times. That said: the more Russian generals and colonels die or are wounded and put out of action, the less capable the Russian army is to conduct offensive operations, and the fewer Ukrainian civilians will face the barbarity that has befallen the ones in the occupied areas.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 6, 2022 16:29:57 GMT
That was the giveaway for the Moskva IMO. So far only seeing claims that rescue ships are on the way but no links to actual sources. You have anything? All over the tabloids now stating credible reports, video also on YouTube. Getting a bit of their own now as they’ve been pinging missiles into Ukrainian for some time apparently I found this one and this one. The first one is a picture I recognise from early in the war and the second looks like it could be videogame footage so I don't buy either of those as proof. Some suggested it's from Digital Combat Simulator, but I've never used it so dunno if it looks like that.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 6, 2022 16:41:00 GMT
However, the US has an artillery ammunition system for these 155mm guns called the Excalibur. This is a much longer ranged shell--up to 57 kilometers--and it is accurate to 16 feet of the target point. "One of three defence sources said the package[to Ukraine] included a number of precision-guided Excalibur rounds left over from the Afghan war."I thought it was laser guided, but the standard version actually uses GPS and dead reckoning ( Wiki). Ukraine doesn't have control of the air, so probably couldn't get spotters in place for laser guidance at >20 km range. So GPS+dead reckoning sounds great to me. This sort of weapon + the radars were what I was talking about when I wanted to see Ukrainians with counter-artillery. If they can wipe out artillery then the Russians will have to keep moving them around. More chance of getting spotted in the open, more wear & tear on machinery, less time to pick shots etc. The shitty news today is that Russia showed footage of an S-300 anti-aircraft launcher blowing up. If they took out one of Ukraine's that's bad, they're the main reason Russia can't send in strategic bombers and their fighter/strike craft have to stay low.
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Post by Boothen on May 6, 2022 16:47:35 GMT
Andrei, you've lost another ship?
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Post by mtrstudent on May 6, 2022 18:15:48 GMT
Andrei, you've lost another ship? I saw that. Some online folks say it looks like Digital Combat Simulator. Elsewhere it's been called Bayraktar TB-2 drone footage and the video starts ~45 degrees off the port prow, and by 23 seconds it's directly in front. At maximum speed it'd have to be within ~2 km of the ship. Seems risky to send a key weapon that close just for some sweet video. Could be a disposable spy drone or a faster plane farther away but I'm really skeptical.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 7, 2022 16:29:44 GMT
Very short update from John R Bruning, posted yesterday.
Ukrainian Update:
1. Ukrainian and UK sources are reporting that the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov was struck by a Neptune missile last night near Snake Island. Unconfirmed reports suggest at least part of the crew has been evacuated via helicopter. Further reports state that ambulances were standing by at the Sevastopol naval facility as well.
There is a lot of speculation right now that a US drone over the Black Sea might have assisted the Ukrainians. Additionally, there is now talk US electronic counter-measures aircraft are suppressing Russian radar systems that otherwise would have detected the incoming missile.
The Makarov is one of the newest ships in the Black Sea fleet, having been commissioned in December 2017.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 7, 2022 17:21:33 GMT
Remember the "Russian warship go fuck yourself" Snake Island? The other day Ukrainian Bayraktars blew up two anti-aircraft weapons and two patrol boats. The Russians sent another anti-air missile vehicle on a little landing boat this morning and... they got Bayraktard again. Footage online but warning: you can see people moving before the explosions. If Putin insists on occupying it then the Ukrainians could get free kills every day and those anti-aircraft systems are great value targets. If the Russians send in ships to target the Bayraktars then those could be in range of Ukraine's Neptune missiles. I've followed a pro-Russian "intel" guy on Twitter who's insisting everything is going to Russia's genius plan. What did he say 12th April? "LOL they really are out of Bayraktars".
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Post by mtrstudent on May 7, 2022 17:33:50 GMT
Russia's "Victory Day" tomorrow. Any bets on what they'll try to show?
Here are the rumours from the past fortnight or so for victories they want to claim in Ukraine: 1) Mariupol parade 2) Kherson referendum to leave Ukraine 3) Complete seizure of Lugansk and/or Donetsk
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