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Post by lordb on Sept 1, 2024 21:36:34 GMT
The Ukrainians need to be very careful or they could be routed. Russias ability to suffer casualties without regard to loss of life is starting to work. Time to start firing missiles at Russian strategic targets in Moscow. Don't think Ukraine has the missiles for that? As for routed, that's miles off,look at the maps
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Sept 1, 2024 21:41:58 GMT
The Ukrainians need to be very careful or they could be routed. Russias ability to suffer casualties without regard to loss of life is starting to work. Time to start firing missiles at Russian strategic targets in Moscow. Don't think Ukraine has the missiles for that? As for routed, that's miles off,look at the maps They should be supplied with them immediately I’ve been watching this quite closely, Ukrainians are stretched in many areas and it doesn’t take much for a breakthrough to become a route. If (however unlikely) Belorussia invades it would cause huge problems
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Post by lordb on Sept 1, 2024 21:50:12 GMT
Don't think Ukraine has the missiles for that? As for routed, that's miles off,look at the maps They should be supplied with them immediately I’ve been watching this quite closely, Ukrainians are stretched in many areas and it doesn’t take much for a breakthrough to become a route. If (however unlikely) Belorussia invades it would cause huge problems Belarus doesn't have much capacity for anything
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 2, 2024 14:38:33 GMT
Not nice to see at all. Too many civillians dying on both sides. Presume this was in response to the shelling in Belgorod a few days ago and then the drone attacks on oil refineries this morning too. I don't think it's a response. I just haven't posted it much. Russia is a terrorist state that has been relentlessly bombing civilians targets in Ukraine the whole time. Ukraine doesn't target civilians and even when Ukraine didn't have the weapons to strike back, Russia was relentlessly attacking civilian targets. They starved out and demolished Mariupol at point blank range as those who survived piled up the corpses like cords of wood. They dropped a massive bomb on a theatre full of children with the sign "CHILDREN" outskde There is ZERO equivalence here. Just take a look at DPR or russian news as it goes around Donetsk city. A near perfect, safe and shining city that's been within Ukrainian artillery range for 10 years. Then look at Mariupol or Mariinka or Bakhmut or Avdiivka or Chasiv Yar or Niu York. Btw I'm not sure there's any evidence of Ukraine targeting cluster munitions inside Belgorod. What makes you so sure that Russian propagandist is telling the truth?
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 2, 2024 14:52:29 GMT
Don't think Ukraine has the missiles for that? As for routed, that's miles off,look at the maps They should be supplied with them immediately I’ve been watching this quite closely, Ukrainians are stretched in many areas and it doesn’t take much for a breakthrough to become a route. If (however unlikely) Belorussia invades it would cause huge problems I think it's also obvious Russia is stretched too, but they have way more forces than Ukraine right now. The numbers I've been working with: Ukraine is supposedly mobilising 20-30,000/month now, and the first troops are getting to the front. It'll take a while to dig out of the terrible situation they're in, and it's just a question of whether they break first. Russia will culminate again just like they did in 2022 and 2023. And they have used up most of their best storages and the easiest volunteers to find. Every future advance will be far more expensive for them. But of course things can change quickly, there can be morale collapses, routs etc. Again: this is why I think the republicans' blockade was potentially decisive. Imagine the situation if Ukraine had been able to fire 200% more shells for six months in winter. How many positions would have held for longer, how many more Ukrainian soldiers would now be uninjured, how many Russian soldiers that are attacking today would have become casualties etc.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 2, 2024 18:37:57 GMT
If one side dominates the drone battle it could decide the war. Both Ukraine and Russia rely massively on spy drones and Ukraine has now shown video of them attacking over 100 using cheap FPV drones.
Instead of needing 1+ $120k stinger missiles, you need a $2k speed drone.
They would need to do this dozens of times every day though.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 2, 2024 18:39:15 GMT
Russia has launched a big pincer attack on Vulhedar, the "hinge" of Ukraine's defences.
Hopefully it'll be another bloody disaster for them.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 2, 2024 20:58:57 GMT
Example of why we don't know what's going on in Kursk!
Russian channels said they were pushing Ukraine back west. Public satellite data seem to suggest fires have moved east though, which is what it would look like if the fighting was going in that direction...
Very little info coming out so it's still not clear what Ukraine's goals are or whether it was even a good idea.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 2, 2024 23:08:22 GMT
Claimed new Ukrainian drone fire bomber.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 4, 2024 0:20:54 GMT
Really bad news today. Russia managed to hit some military centre with 1+ Iskandr ballistic missiles. 40+ dead and including injured, 200+ casualties. Someone fucked up badly by allowing this target to be sat there - it's not the first time either. Someone senior needs removing for this.
I didn't post the news when it was breaking this morning because it looked dodgy - initially Ukraine claimed an "educational institution" and a "medical facility" were hit, which strongly implies civilian targets.
Evidence came out later and so far I only saw geolocated proof of a building that pre-war was military. So it looks like this time it was a military target and early Ukrainian reporting was, at best, misleading.
This is one of the most egregious errors I've found in Ukrainian reporting. Whoever is responsible also needs punishing because they've damaged Ukrainian credibility.
Still, doesn't compare with russian lies about everything. Like when they murder civilians and then quickly blame Ukraine.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 4, 2024 1:07:25 GMT
BBC story on the attack. "At least 51 people have been killed and 271 others injured in a Russian missile strike on the city of Poltava, in central Ukraine. A military academy and a nearby hospital were hit. Ukraine's land forces confirmed that military personnel were killed in the attack." Ukrainian official federal sources seem to be honest. The early local reporting was misleading though. A very sad day.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 4, 2024 21:55:31 GMT
Russians missiled some residential area in Lviv today. Wiped out a whole family except for the husband/father. How painful must that be.
Russian propaganda says it was a military target, the video shows a residential block and dead children. Who to believe 🤔
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 4, 2024 22:04:54 GMT
Big legal dump today as US department of justice managed to trace lots of money from the Kremlin and communications between groups to try and push propaganda to support Trump and the Republicans, and to undermine the Democrats.
The US election in November is gonna be an important choice: voters can picn Republicans, dictatorship and Putin or Democrats, democracy and Ukraine.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 4, 2024 22:23:13 GMT
This map shows the progress Russia managed over 5 days towards Pokrovsk, the current most important battle. It's in the upper left bit of the map.
You can see the russians have a "bulge". Everything inside can be seen by Ukrainian drones, so Russia is finding it hard to get artillery and vehicles to the "tip".
No more progress forward recently. Every week they're held back is good news, but there's every chance they'll start pushing forward again soon.
Videos show russians just running over fields or riding motorbikes and dying in huge numbers. But they keep pushing.
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Sept 5, 2024 10:47:39 GMT
Big legal dump today as US department of justice managed to trace lots of money from the Kremlin and communications between groups to try and push propaganda to support Trump and the Republicans, and to undermine the Democrats. The US election in November is gonna be an important choice: voters can picn Republicans, dictatorship and Putin or Democrats, democracy and Ukraine. Democracy: choosing a candidate that won 0 primary votes and hasn't faced one serious interview
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 5, 2024 12:38:27 GMT
Big legal dump today as US department of justice managed to trace lots of money from the Kremlin and communications between groups to try and push propaganda to support Trump and the Republicans, and to undermine the Democrats. The US election in November is gonna be an important choice: voters can picn Republicans, dictatorship and Putin or Democrats, democracy and Ukraine. Democracy: choosing a candidate that won 0 primary votes and hasn't faced one serious interview Serious interview Has trump ever given one
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Sept 5, 2024 12:56:32 GMT
Democracy: choosing a candidate that won 0 primary votes and hasn't faced one serious interview Serious interview Has trump ever given one Literally yesterday an hour with Lex Fridman... I'm not saying he's good at them but the people should have chances to see who they're voting for
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 5, 2024 17:27:14 GMT
Example of how Russians are attacking. They do this many times a day all over the place.
There's a single guy who goes through published drone videos every day and almost every day he counts 50+ dead or severely wounded russians.
That's just from the videos he sees.
Ukraine is also getting hit hard thanks to Russia having glide bombs and more artillery, but I think it's pretty clear that Russia is taking much heavier casualties because Ukraine doesn't throw hundreds of people across open fields every single day.
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Post by sticky on Sept 5, 2024 19:18:49 GMT
Am I right in saying this has now been going on for 2 and a half years. I just don’t see how Russia keep coming? Thought theyd be skint by now, and putin removed ages ago🤷🏼♂️
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Post by Olgrligm on Sept 5, 2024 20:18:00 GMT
This isn't really about the war in Ukraine, but just something that I'd noticed looking at the medal tables for the last few Paralympics.
Ukraine have a seriously impressive history in the Paralympics.
6th in 2020 (24 golds) (44th with one gold in the Olympics) 3rd in 2016 (41 golds) (31st with two golds in the Olympics) 4th in 2012 (32 golds) (15th with five golds in the Olympics) 4th in 2008 (24 golds) (12th with seven golds in the Olympics) 6th in 2004 (24 golds) (13th with eight golds in the Olympics)
Yet absolutely nowhere prior to 2004.
They've currently got 15 golds, albeit in 7th place, which is still remarkable given the state of the nation.
How do they do it?
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 5, 2024 21:08:46 GMT
Am I right in saying this has now been going on for 2 and a half years. I just don’t see how Russia keep coming? Thought theyd be skint by now, and putin removed ages ago🤷🏼♂️ Yep. Soon 31 months. Russia has been burning through the soviet stockpiles that were built over decades. They're about to hit the limits on that for a lot of equipment though, so they want the west to give in before they start obviously weakening. E.g. their best tanks, T-80... They've lost around 1k, they only have about 200 left in storage and they don't make any new ones. It's the same with all their highest quality kit. Russia has been gambled everything on Trump bailing them out if they can't crack Ukraine now.
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Post by sticky on Sept 5, 2024 21:21:27 GMT
Am I right in saying this has now been going on for 2 and a half years. I just don’t see how Russia keep coming? Thought theyd be skint by now, and putin removed ages ago🤷🏼♂️ Yep. Soon 31 months. Russia has been burning through the soviet stockpiles that were built over decades. They're about to hit the limits on that for a lot of equipment though, so they want the west to give in before they start obviously weakening. E.g. their best tanks, T-80... They've lost around 1k, they only have about 200 left in storage and they don't make any new ones. It's the same with all their highest quality kit. Russia has been gambled everything on Trump bailing them out if they can't crack Ukraine now. So this time next year, things will look a lot different then? You’d of thought the Russian people would be questioning what’s going on🤷🏼♂️ although I suppose they do and get royaly fucked for it🙄
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 5, 2024 21:29:26 GMT
Russia launched a big attack in the southeast corner, near Vulhedar. Sadly they advanced, taking 5 fields.
They lost 31 armoured vehicles and took pretty heavy casualties, but they did advance. 😢
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Post by Stoke711 on Sept 5, 2024 22:28:07 GMT
Yep. Soon 31 months. Russia has been burning through the soviet stockpiles that were built over decades. They're about to hit the limits on that for a lot of equipment though, so they want the west to give in before they start obviously weakening. E.g. their best tanks, T-80... They've lost around 1k, they only have about 200 left in storage and they don't make any new ones. It's the same with all their highest quality kit. Russia has been gambled everything on Trump bailing them out if they can't crack Ukraine now. So this time next year, things will look a lot different then? You’d of thought the Russian people would be questioning what’s going on🤷🏼♂️ although I suppose they do and get royaly fucked for it🙄 They keep getting arrested and tried for treason. So better for them to keep quiet.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2024 1:31:10 GMT
So this time next year, things will look a lot different then? You’d of thought the Russian people would be questioning what’s going on🤷🏼♂️ although I suppose they do and get royaly fucked for it🙄 I think war is unpredictable so don't trust my predictions 😂 I've done a lot to check the data and believe things like russian tank supplies *now*, but that doesn't *prove* the future will go one way or the other... A few obvious things that could swing it either way: 1. Ukraine's army could crack in the coming months. But Russia is running out of time here. 2. Ukraine could break economically and politically if russia's terror campaign on the power grid works over winter. If Ukraine survives those then a lot depends on the US election. If the Democrats win and rush through aid, then Russia would need a ton of help from China or someone next year to repeat anything like the massive mechanised assaults they've managed this year. Europe + the US could give Ukraine fire superiority and then the russian army gets slaughtered quickly enough for gaps to open.
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Post by beats88 on Sept 6, 2024 8:14:04 GMT
Russia launched a big attack in the southeast corner, near Vulhedar. Sadly they advanced, taking 5 fields. They lost 31 armoured vehicles and took pretty heavy casualties, but they did advance. 😢 "5 fields". When you put into perspective it is crazy that millions of pounds of equipment, 100/1000s of lives are being lost for minimal gains. I know these minimal gains add up and its a must, but when I drive through my local country lanes on the way to work and I look at 5 fields, its hard to fathom those fields with tanks rolling across them. I suppose it shows how lucky we are, regardless of the irritations we have with our way of life.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2024 14:31:55 GMT
Russia launched a big attack in the southeast corner, near Vulhedar. Sadly they advanced, taking 5 fields. They lost 31 armoured vehicles and took pretty heavy casualties, but they did advance. 😢 "5 fields". When you put into perspective it is crazy that millions of pounds of equipment, 100/1000s of lives are being lost for minimal gains. I know these minimal gains add up and its a must, but when I drive through my local country lanes on the way to work and I look at 5 fields, its hard to fathom those fields with tanks rolling across them. I suppose it shows how lucky we are, regardless of the irritations we have with our way of life. Absolutely. Have you ever seen a disaster happen in a place you know really well? Like where you recognise individual details like houses or something? It hit me differently when I saw that. Ukrainian fields have a particular "look", they're huge (some are a mile long) and even the greenery and flatness is a bit different from the UK. So it feels a bit distant to me. I can't imagine the constant pain of Ukrainians who see their home being wrecked.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2024 15:12:51 GMT
Nice hit from Ukraine on at least four T-80BVMs at a refuel point.
I've read quite a lot about armour since 2022 - I don't know if I can trust the sources I found but they said that the Soviets had a "pro" army equipped with the best stuff and other russians would work until they were mobilised if there were a war.
The T-80 was the premium, top-of-the-line Soviet "pro" tank, while the T-72 is the "mobilisation" tank that would be given to the conscripts who were rushed out of civilian life. The T-72 is worse but simpler and cheaper so it would make up most of the numbers.
Russia kept most of its T-80s in special garages and dry-air storages and it maintained them while other tanks were just left in open fields for decades. They've removed almost every single well-stored T-80, and once those are refurbished there will be no new supply unless Russia retools tank factories. Which they haven't yet.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 6, 2024 16:09:01 GMT
This isn't really about the war in Ukraine, but just something that I'd noticed looking at the medal tables for the last few Paralympics. Ukraine have a seriously impressive history in the Paralympics. 6th in 2020 (24 golds) (44th with one gold in the Olympics) 3rd in 2016 (41 golds) (31st with two golds in the Olympics) 4th in 2012 (32 golds) (15th with five golds in the Olympics) 4th in 2008 (24 golds) (12th with seven golds in the Olympics) 6th in 2004 (24 golds) (13th with eight golds in the Olympics) Yet absolutely nowhere prior to 2004. They've currently got 15 golds, albeit in 7th place, which is still remarkable given the state of the nation. How do they do it? That's a great question. When I saw the leaderboards this time I thought it was just because of all the people who'd had their limbs blown off by Russia, but that couldn't explain the results from before 2014. I'll ask my mates when I get a chance.
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Post by frasier37 on Sept 6, 2024 18:15:39 GMT
Realistic reporting i think. shows the struggle is constant and brutal.... Ukrainian soldiers frustrated with higher command
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