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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 16, 2024 14:37:08 GMT
Thread from a PhD researcher in non-nuclear strategic stuff.
If Trump wins then the US will not support NATO. He wants to be a dictator, he loves dictators, and he hates free democracies like in Europe.
If Ukraine is forced into any surrender, then expect Russia to push into Europe. He explains how it would he small steps at first to break article 5.
The same arguments that pro-Putin people are pushing now will be used. "Ukraine has to surrender because Russia won't give up/nukes/it's expensive/corruption please just give Putin a bit to stop people dying" will be used. But instead of Ukrainians dying it will probably be Baltic people.
And then once NATO is done he can eat up Ukraine then Moldova then the Baltics. And after that their people will be prepared for the next invadions - Romania? Poland? Finland?
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 16, 2024 18:13:41 GMT
Russia sending more ancient T-54/55s to the front. Also another trainload of T-62s shown on film today.
Ukraine has got russia pushed to the edge - only about 700 semi-decent tanks left in storage.
That's why Putin needs his republican allies to save his army by continuing to slow down aid. If he can drag it out it'll buy time to break Ukraine and rebuild his forces to go into Europe.
But he needs really aggressive help from Trump (stopping air defence deliveries etc) and weaker European support too.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Jul 16, 2024 18:28:41 GMT
Russia sending more ancient T-54/55s to the front. Also another trainload of T-62s shown on film today. Ukraine has got russia pushed to the edge - only about 700 semi-decent tanks left in storage. That's why Putin needs his republican allies to save his army by continuing to slow down aid. If he can drag it out it'll buy time to break Ukraine and rebuild his forces to go into Europe. But he needs really aggressive help from Trump (stopping air defence deliveries etc) and weaker European support too. Putin isn’t going into Europe. His army has proven to be tinpot I’d fancy the Poles to manage them on their own
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 16, 2024 20:03:32 GMT
Putin isn’t going into Europe. His army has proven to be tinpot I’d fancy the Poles to manage them on their own I agree right now it's basically impossible. Some of the researchers I follow expect if he's allowed to get more control in Belarus and Ukraine he'll have a pop at the Baltics. I still hope that we'd respond and destroy the russian army anywhere near the border, but I worry about all the political pressure to try and force Ukraine to surrender now. It's telling Putin (and Xi!) we're weak and if those arguments win I think he'll spend a few years crushing Ukraine, then rebuilding and then he'll go for Europe. If Trump becomes the supreme leader then the Poles will be in trouble because they rely on a lot of US kit and Trunp will be able to block replenishment. Europe needs to move away from Patriot/HIMARS/F-35 and build our own top-grade kit now that the US can't be trusted as an ally of democracy.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 17, 2024 12:13:36 GMT
The vultures are circling today in Davos....
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Post by wannabee on Jul 17, 2024 12:51:33 GMT
The vultures are circling today in Davos.... There's going to be an awful lot of "reconstruction" money sloshing around when this Shitshow finally ends.
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Post by questionable on Jul 17, 2024 12:54:36 GMT
Lots of rumours on X that Xi has had a massive stroke
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 17, 2024 14:04:41 GMT
Economist article says Russia can only make 200 new artillery barrels per year. Supposedly Russia has never made the machines to make them. The only photos inside factories show Austrian machines.
Dunno if true but it would explain why they've been removing so many guns from storage. The Economist's expert says they've needed 4,800 barrels just to replace worn out ones so far.
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Post by LDE76 on Jul 17, 2024 14:25:11 GMT
Economist article says Russia can only make 200 new artillery barrels per year. Supposedly Russia has never made the machines to make them. The only photos inside factories show Austrian machines. Dunno if true but it would explain why they've been removing so many guns from storage. The Economist's expert says they've needed 4,800 barrels just to replace worn out ones so far. Ukrainian drone-operators like this.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 17, 2024 14:48:01 GMT
Prisoner exchange today. 95 Ukrainians made it back home ❤️
Negotiations still happen for these at least.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 17, 2024 15:21:25 GMT
Did Russia repair the submarine Ukraine hit with a missile?
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Post by LDE76 on Jul 17, 2024 15:28:02 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 17, 2024 15:57:43 GMT
Anniversary of russia shooting down MH17 and murdering hundreds of civilians.
Posing with the wreckage.
The russian 53rd Air Defence Brigade from Kursk launched a missile from a Buk in occupied Ukraine.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 17, 2024 16:10:51 GMT
Russia says they shot down 6 ATACMS. I posted a new video above showing what looks like ~6 ATACMS hitting an air defence battery.
Supposedly on the same night. 🤔
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 17, 2024 19:01:48 GMT
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Post by Etain Tur-Mukan on Jul 17, 2024 20:02:16 GMT
Bunch of numpties. Special attention on Britain 🤣 The world would be a better place without the sad sack tinpot money grabbing war mongers.
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Post by LDE76 on Jul 18, 2024 12:06:07 GMT
Russian state TV has been making nuclear threats on almost a monthly basis ever since it became apparent that other nations, for once, weren't just going to let them get their own way. At one point they suggested using a nuclear torpedo to create a mega-tsunami which would obliterate the entire UK.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 18, 2024 17:10:35 GMT
Sounds like the French are training and equipping a new Ukrainian brigade. Looks like light mechanised, there are nowhere near enough tanks for the Ukrainians right now :/
And does France have enough vehicles to replace the ones that'll inevitably be lost? I think this one brigade might take everything they have.
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Post by LDE76 on Jul 18, 2024 22:23:05 GMT
One of the more uplifting little stories:
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 19, 2024 13:59:43 GMT
This is really happening.
Russia sending hundreds of soldiers forward on dirt bikes to attack trenches.
Each group is maybe 10-30 but they launch many attacks a day.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 19, 2024 20:42:06 GMT
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Post by LDE76 on Jul 19, 2024 22:24:12 GMT
FAFO.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 20, 2024 5:20:28 GMT
Ukrainian drones caused a fire somewhere near a russian airfield.
Hopefully they got some of this jets. Russia has been dropping hundreds of glide bombs every week and it's been a disaster. It's a major reason Russia has been able to advance.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 20, 2024 17:48:56 GMT
Just heard another convincing story about why armour and equipment is important.
A friend's friend is a driver, he delivers ammo to the front and evacuates wounded soldiers.
His car was recently hit by a russian drone that blew up the engine and cracked the windscreen. He was injured and sent to hospital, but the armour saved his life and those of his passengers. They should all fully recover.
If he was driving a civilian 4x4 they'd probably be dead or at best severely injured. The drone was carrying an anti-armour warhead, but the western armour on his vehicle was good enough to save three precious lives.
Every time we send some armoured vehicles it saves Ukrainian lives. And once russia runs low, they're going to have to sacrifice even more meat.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 20, 2024 17:52:22 GMT
That's no decoy!
Ukraine still causing serious damage to Russia and those air defence systems are expensive. Like $10m each.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 21, 2024 4:16:10 GMT
Photos of lasr night's Ukrainian raid on a russian airbase. Seems like no planes destroyed 😔
Ukraine needs to be given missiles to take out russian airfields.
Idiot western governments are delaying so Russia has time to build defences. It's like they're brain damaged or something.
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Post by chuffedstokie on Jul 21, 2024 4:39:49 GMT
Anniversary of russia shooting down MH17 and murdering hundreds of civilians. Posing with the wreckage. The russian 53rd Air Defence Brigade from Kursk launched a missile from a Buk in occupied Ukraine. Last nights in depth programme surrounding this was truly fascinating. How the crash site was ruined, flight data recorder taken and the vehicle used to shoot it down seen entering then leaving the area minus one missile. How the CIA got on board with intelligence gathering and Putins response. It's a must watch, Putin the master spy outspied. He's scared.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 21, 2024 5:17:20 GMT
Anniversary of russia shooting down MH17 and murdering hundreds of civilians. Posing with the wreckage. The russian 53rd Air Defence Brigade from Kursk launched a missile from a Buk in occupied Ukraine. Last nights in depth programme surrounding this was truly fascinating. How the crash site was ruined, flight data recorder taken and the vehicle used to shoot it down seen entering then leaving the area minus one missile. How the CIA got on board with intelligence gathering and Putins response. It's a must watch, Putin the master spy outspied. He's scared. Some of the investigators who made the story public were incredible - here's some of their work. They are just amazing - and how we know lots of the info that got into the news and documentaries now. Russia's 53rd Air Defence Brigade based in Kursk. Those are the fuckers who killed hundreds of innocents.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 21, 2024 22:26:11 GMT
Been a bit busy so not posting much for a few days but a rough update for anyone interested.
Russia is still grinding forwards against Ukraine's exhausted defenders. Ukraine is rotating units for rest, but they just don't get enough time to rest & recover and the only fully "spare" units we know about are 5 new brigades (150th-154th) that only have light armour and no experience, so throwing them into attacks would be an insane risk. I just can't see how Ukraine could attack any time soon, maybe even at all this year.
Russia has occupied 0.15% more of Ukraine since October and have lost at least 1,000 tanks and 2,000 other armoured vehicles to do it. They only have 700 decent condition tanks visibly left in storage, and all the best ones have already been taken out. So they're well, well on their way to running into serious armour problems.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 21, 2024 22:30:19 GMT
Example of what I talk about. Russia has removed over 80% of their MT-LB vehicles from storage bases.
There will still be deliveries because the factories are taking time to fix them up, but once the storages are empty then there will be no new ones. And the russian army's supply of MT-LBs will just start shrinking. Instead of MT-LBs to delivery ammo and evacuate wounded, they'll be using vans or another type called MT-LBu, which has even weaker armour. Those will get blown up more easily and russia will start losing soldiers even faster.
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